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Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response could occur by early 2016

Archive for July, 2009

VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 July 2009]

Posted by feww on July 16, 2009

Volcanic Activity Report: 8 July – 14 July 2009

Source: Global Volcanism Program (GVP) – SI/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

New activity/unrest:

NOTES: A large sulfur dioxide plume and several thermal anomalies from Manda Hararo that were detected in satellite imagery during 28-30 June prompted a science team to visit the area on 4 July. They saw new predominantly ‘a’a lava flows that were 2-3 m thick. The fissure was lined with scoria ramparts 30-50 m high.

On 10 July, AVO reported that a distinct thermal anomaly in Shishaldin’s summit crater observed intermittently since January 2009 became more intense during the previous month. AVO raised the Aviation Color Code and the Volcano Alert Level. (Source: GVP)

VOW: More Volcanoes to watch for 2009-10

  • Buvet
  • Colima
  • Rabul  [Explosive eruption more powerful than 1994 may occur]

Ongoing Activity:

  • Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
  • Chaitén, Southern Chile
  • Dukono, Halmahera
  • Fuego, Guatemala
  • Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
  • Pacaya, Guatemala
  • Rabaul, New Britain
  • Sakura-jima, Kyushu
  • Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

Latest U.S. Volcano Alerts and Updates

Alaska Volcano Observatory Update: July 16, 2009 0300 UTC

  • Redoubt Activity – Color Code YELLOW : Alert Level ADVISORY

  • Cleveland Activity – Color Code – UNASSIGNED: Alert Level UNASSIGNED

HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE: Wednesday, July 15, 2009 18:05 UTC

  • Kilauea Activity  -  Color Code ORANGE : Alert Level WATCH

  • Mauna Loa Activity – Color Code YELLOW : Alert Level ADVISORY

Related Links:

FEWW Links:

Posted in Buvet, Rabul, San Miguel, Sarychev Peak, Shishaldin | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Powerful 7.8 M Quake Strikes New Zealand Region

Posted by feww on July 15, 2009

Magnitude 7.8 M Earthquake Strikes Off West Coast of South Island, New Zealand

A powerful earthquake measuring magnitude 7.8 occurred off west coast of South Island, New Zealand, about 150 km  WNW of Invercargill, at 09:22:32 UTC, USGS reported.

The mainshock, which occurred at a depth of 35 km, was followed by a large aftershock measuring 5.8 Mw some 20 km WSW of the mainshock about 20 minutes later. [Location, 45.991°S, 166.238°E; depth, 35km; event ID, us2009jcat/USGS]

The aftershock was reported as measuring 6.1 on Richter scale, and at a depth of 5km, by New Zealand’s GNS Science Earthquake Information.

FEWW EarthModel simulations suggest the latest earthquakes may well be a prelude to an extended period of intense, likely catastrophic, seismic and volcanic activities in the New Zealand region. Lots of ‘fireworks’ may follow.  [See links below for forecasts and travel advisories.]

On May 9, 2009, FEWW Moderators issued the following warning to tourists planning to visit New Zealand:

A Warning to Visitors to New Zealand:

Climatological and Geological Warning! The New Zealand region is about to experience significant climatological events and large-scale geological and tectonic activity over an extensive period of time. Would be visitors are advised to stay out of the area for the foreseeable future.  http://newzeelend.wordpress.com/2009/05/09/a-warning-to-new-zealand-visitors/


New Zealand’s Alpine Fault – Source: Stuff NZ. Image may be subject to copyright. SEE Fair Use Notice!

What the local experts said

It’s interesting and quite comforting [sic] to note, as our colleague TERRES pointed out earlier, the local experts had assured New Zealanders “there was no cause for worry,”  and that the frequent quakes earlier this year were not “leading up to the ‘big one.’” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2308107/Quakes-no-cause-for-worry

10-degree Map Centered at 45°S,165°E

NZSI- us2009jcap
Earthquake Location. Original Map: USGS - EHP

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 7.8
  • Date-Time:
    • Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 09:22:32 UTC
    • Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 08:22:32 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 45.721°S, 166.643°E
  • Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
  • Region:  OFF WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, N.Z.
  • Distances:
    • 150 km (95 miles) WNW of Invercargill, New Zealand
    • 175 km (110 miles) WSW of Queenstown, New Zealand
    • 300 km (185 miles) W of Dunedin, New Zealand
    • 825 km (510 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 11.1 km (6.9 miles); depth fixed by location program
  • Parameters: NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=322.8 km, Rmss=1.58 sec, Gp= 54°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009jcap

Seismic Hazard Map [USGS]

neic_jcap_w
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

pop-expo est

Population exposure estimates are NOT a direct estimate of earthquake damage; comparable shaking will result in significantly lower losses in regions with well built structures than in regions with vulnerable structures. [USGS]

Notes:

On September 30, 2008, FEWW wrote:

Magnitude 7 Earthquake Hits Kermadec Islands

Implication for New Zealand Islands:

  • A substantial increase in the frequency of earthquake striking the twin islands.
  • More earthquakes with magnitude 6 or larger.
  • A marked increased in large explosive volcanic eruptions, especially in the following zones [also includes 'extinct' volcanoes]
    • Taupo Volcanic Zone
    • Bombay Hills
    • Auckland volcanic field
    • Mount Taranaki
    • Mt Horrible volcano
    • Mount Taranaki
    • Mount Cargill

Worst Case Condition for New Zealand Islands:

Will a magnitude 9.8 (MW) earthquake centered at 42° 00′ 59″ South, 175° 05′ 07″ East herald the end of New Zealand Islands?

  • Large earthquakes and massive volcanic eruptions could potentially destroy much of New Zealand structures and claim many lives.
  • Earthquake and volcano-triggered waves could also give rise to 40 to 50-meter tsunami that would engulf the coastal areas and low-lying lands throughout New Zealand [could also affect parts of Australia's eastern seaboard,] compounding the damage.
  • A super/mega colossal Plinian/Ultra-Plinian eruption occurring in New Zealand’s North Island simultaneously [or within a short period of time] with a magnitude 9.8 earthquake off the eastern coast of New Zealand could claim many lives.
  • Probability of occurrence:
    1. Event 1.  A magnitude 9.8 earthquake striking off the eastern coast of New Zealand with (i) the foreshocks ripping through Auckland, Hamilton, Taupo areas, (ii) the mainshock leveling Wellington, Palmerstone North, Marlborough, Nelson and Christchurch, and (iii) the aftershock causing substantial damage as far south as Invercargill: 85%
    2. Event 2. A super/ mega colossal Plinian/Ultra-Plinian eruption in the North Island: 72%  [South Island: 57%]
    3. Event 1 and Event 2 occurring simultaneously, or within a short period of time: 64 %

Related News Links:

Related Links:

Posted in Alpine Fault, Earthquakes, flooding, tasman sea, tsunami warning | Tagged: , , , , | 6 Comments »

Killer Drought in Africa

Posted by feww on July 15, 2009

Drought is the biggest environmental catastrophe facing Africa

A weak rainy season lead to water food shortages in most parts of Africa, especially Kenya, which entered a state of emergency with about a third of the country’s 32 million population requiring food aid.

The drought also meant low water levels in reservoirs, water rationing and power cuts. The Masinga hydroelectric dam was closed down after low water levels in the reservoir could not sustain power generation.

The following images show how plants responded to the poor rainfall during the rainy season in 2009.

Drought in Africa

africandvia_avh_200906 -s

africandvia_avh_200906_palette

Rainfall Anomaly (2009 season)

africaprecip_rfe_200906

africaprecip_rfe_200906_palette

Cumulative Rainfall, Masinga Dam, Kenya

masingadam_arc_chart -o
Africa’s Sahel region,
a belt of fertile grassland, thrives or fails depending on seasonal rainfall. In dry years, little grows, and those who depend on rain to grow crops in the Sahel may face hunger.

Above images show rainfall during the long rainy season in 2009.  The top image, made from data collected by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) flying on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite NOAA-17, shows the condition of plants in June 2009 compared to previous Junes. In areas that are brown, plants were growing less then the  2003 and 2008 average. Green areas indicate better-than-average growth, while cream-colored areas indicate about average growth.

The poor growth in June 2009 is a result of the weak rainy season. Low seasonal rains, which usually come between March and June, resulted in drought this year. Made from a combination of satellite and rain gauge measurements, the middle image shows the extent of the rainfall deficit between March and June. Areas in brown received less rain than average, while blue areas received more rain. The average was calculated from rainfall observed between March and June from 1995 through 2008. The northern Sahel and East Africa were drier than normal throughout the 2009 rainy season.

The graph illustrates why water levels were so low at Masinga Dam in 2009 compared to the long-term average and other recent years. Each line shows how the rainy season developed between March and June. 1997 was an unusually wet year, with about 75 millimeters more rain than average by the end of June. The last year when rainfall reached normal levels was 2006. In 2009, the rainy season didn’t start until late March and less rain fell throughout the season. By the end of June, Masinga Dam had only received about 100 millimeters of rain, about 125 mm less than average and 200 mm less than in 1997. If conditions improve, Kenya’s next rainy season will likely begin in September or October and will last through November or December.

Images created by Jesse Allen, using GIMMS NOAA-17 AVHRR and Africa Rainfall Estimate data provided by Ed Pak, Jennifer Small and Assaf Anyamba, NASA GIMMS Group at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek with information from Assaf Anyamba. Images acquired March 1, 2009 – June 30, 2009. [Caption edited for brevity by FEWW. ]

Related Links:

Posted in Climate Change, hydroelectric power, Rainfall Anomaly, rainy season, water shortages | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Update # 1

Posted by feww on July 14, 2009

For all other El Niño Updates, advisories and information visit El Niño

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions -
Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP — 13 July 2009

Summary

  • El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Positive sea surface temperature (SST) departures continue to increase across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

sst outlook 12 july 2009

See also: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies for Apr 2009 to Dec 2009

Related Links:

Posted in droughts and Deluge, El Niño, ENSO, La Niña, rainfall pattern | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Soon All The ‘Paradise’ Would Be Lost!

Posted by feww on July 14, 2009

Image of the Day:

Tikehau Atoll, French Polynesia

tikehau_ali_2009181
The islands and coral atolls of French Polynesia, located in the southern Pacific Ocean … This image from the Advanced Land Imager on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite shows the southern part of Tikehau Atoll, one of the 78 coral atolls that make up the Tuamotu Archipelago. Patches of coral make star-like spots across the turquoise expanse of the lagoon. A line of tree-covered islets encircles the lagoon. At the southernmost tip of the atoll, a large islet accommodates a small village and an air strip. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey. [Image was reportedly acquired June 30,2009.]

tikehau_ali_2009181_lrg - small
Tikehau Atoll (Full View) magnified image [dated 2005] is available at Google earth  15º 07′ 13 ” S, 148º 13′ 56″ W.

FEWW estimates that human activity emitted about 222 times more CO2 in 2008 than the total sum of  all carbon dioxide spewed from volcanic eruptions that year.

Related Links:

Posted in French Polynesia, Ocean Warming, rising sea levels, southern Pacific Ocean, Tuamotu Archipelago | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Magnitude 6.3 quake strikes Taiwan region

Posted by feww on July 13, 2009

Strong Quake Strikes Taiwan – March 4

FOR March 4, 2010 Quake in Taiwan Click the Link ABOVE

A Magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred near east coast of Taiwan.

A Magnitude 6.3 mainshock followed by a M5.1 aftershock struck about 60km east of the coastal town of Hua-lien, Taiwan, at a depth of 24.7 km, USGS reported.

The quake occurred about 40km east of an unnamed volcano [Volcano Number: 0801-03= ; Latitude: 24.00°N,  Longitude: 121.83°E] where according to the Global Volcanism Program:

A submarine eruption observed by the U.S. Navy boat “Southampton” took place on October 29, 1853 in the Philippine Sea offshore from the city of Hualien about 18 km from the eastern coast of Taiwan. Several days later another ship, the “Macedonian,” passed the same location and reported white ash covering its curtains.

Subject to further seismic activity in the area FEWW will publish the probability of eruption at volcano 0801-03.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,120°E

Tw - us2009jabu
Earthquake location. Original Map: USGS

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 6.3
  • Date-Tim:
    • Monday, July 13, 2009 at 18:05:02 UTC
    • Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 02:05:02 AM at epicenter
  • Location:  23.997°N, 122.177°E
  • Depth:  24.7 km (15.3 miles)
  • Region:  TAIWAN REGION
  • Distances:
    • 60 km (40 miles) E of Hua-lien, Taiwan
    • 75 km (45 miles) SSE of Su-ao, Taiwan
    • 135 km (85 miles) SSE of T’AI-PEI, Taiwan
    • 150 km (95 miles) SE of Hsin-chu, Taiwan
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 6.9 km (4.3 miles); depth +/- 20 km (12.4 miles)
  • Parameters NST= 95, Nph= 95, Dmin=62.3 km, Rmss=0.72 sec, Gp= 50°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009jabu

Seismic Hazard Map – USGS

neic_jabu_w

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Historic Seismicity [7+ shocks sine 1900] – USGS

neic_jabu_7

7_legend

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

Posted in energy magnitude, euroasian plate, fault plane, Philippine Plate, radiated energy | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Bangladesh Town Threatened by Flooded River

Posted by feww on July 13, 2009

Image of the Day: Bangladesh Town Threatened by Flooding

sirajganj town
Sirajganj town is under threat of flooding after parts of its flood protection embankment on the Jamuna River at Sashanghat collapsed. Heavy rain and swollen river raised the threat against The Jamuna bridge, and a vast stretch of Sirajganj town’s flood barrier. Photo: The Daily Star. Image may be subject to copyright.

“Hundreds of people including soldiers and police were struggling to stop a town being washed away by the choppy Jamuna river in Bangladesh over the last two days, officials said Saturday.

“Boulders, concrete blocks, brick slabs and sand bags were being dropped by volunteers, government staff and troops along a partially eroded river bank at Sirajganj district town 160 km (100 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka.” Reuters reported.

Related Links:

Posted in Bangladesh floods, Jamuna, Jamuna river, Sirajganj town | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Mount Mayon neighbors on evacuation alert

Posted by feww on July 12, 2009

About 7,000 people living near Mount Mayon are put on evacuation alert — GMA News

According to the latest National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) report on Mayon’s activity issued on July 11, 2009, some 1,675 families or 6,996 persons will be evacuated from the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ), an area located on the SE flank of the volcano and the 6-km Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) areas, if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) raises the  Alert Level for the area from 2 to 3 (on a scale of 0-5).

Alert Level 3 is regarded as  “significant local eruption,” on Phivolcs’ five-level alert system.

Mayon

Country:  Philippines
Region: Luzon (Philippines)
Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
Last Known Eruption: 2008
Summit Elevation: 2,462 m
Latitude: 13.257°N
Longitude: 123.685°E
Source: Global Volcanism Program (GVP)


Beautifully symmetrical Mayon volcano, which rises to 2462 m above the Albay Gulf, is the Philippines’ most active volcano. The structurally simple volcano has steep upper slopes averaging 35-40 degrees that are capped by a small summit crater. The historical eruptions of this basaltic-andesitic volcano date back to 1616 and range from strombolian to basaltic plinian, with cyclical activity beginning with basaltic eruptions, followed by longer term andesitic lava flows. Eruptions occur predominately from the central conduit and have also produced lava flows that travel far down the flanks. Pyroclastic flows and mudflows have commonly swept down many of the approximately 40 ravines that radiate from the summit and have often devastated populated lowland areas. Mayon’s most violent eruption, in 1814, killed more than 1200 people and devastated several towns. Eruptions that began in February 2000 led PHIVOLCS to recommend on 23 February 2000 the evacuation of people within a radius of 7 km from the summit in the SE and within a 6 km radius for the rest of the volcano. Photo by Kurt Fredrickson, 1968 (Smithsonian Institution). Caption: GVP

Map of Major volcanoes of the Philippines

Alert Level stays at 2 for now

On Sunday, Phivolcs research specialist Rudy Lacson reportedly told GMANews.TV that there were no signs of volcanic activity that would warrant raising Mayon’s alert level.

“Three volcanic earthquakes were detected and a more ‘intense’ glow at the crater were observed within the past 24 hours, but Lacson said these signs were ‘normal’ for the volcano’s current status.” GMA said.

“Lacson said Phivolcs was still closely monitoring Mayon’s volcanic activity and advised people in the area to stay away from the six-kilometer radius permanent danger zone.

“The provincial government earlier banned any human activity near the volcano after Phivolcs raised on Friday the alert level from 1 to 2 following an increase in abnormal activity in the past days.”

Phivolcs’ latest bulletin described Alert Level 2 as “a state of unrest which could lead to ash explosions or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption.”

“Officials also advised 4,000 farmers who were keeping watch over crops within the permanent danger zone to return to their villages at night to avoid getting caught by surprise should the volcano erupt.” GMA said.

Mayon volcano, which last erupted in 2008, is considered to be the most active volcano in the Philippines.

FEWW moderators believe that the Philippines should brace itself for major waves of seismic and volcanic activities in the coming weeks, months and years..

Mount Mayon Photos:


A nighttime view from Legaspi City on September 14, 1984, shows incandescent lava flows descending the SW flank of Mayon volcano in the Philippines. The flows traveled about 4 km to the lower flanks of the volcano, adjacent to previous flows from eruptions in 1968 and 1978. Photo by Norm Banks, 1984 (U.S. Geological Survey). Caption: GVP.

The ‘Perfect’ Volcano


Mayon volcano in the Philippines is one of Earth’s best examples of a classic, conical stratovolcano. Its symmetrical morphology is the exception rather than the rule, and is the result of eruptions that are restricted to a single central conduit at the summit of the volcano. Eruptions are frequent enough at Mayon, the most active volcano in the Philippines, to overcome erosive forces that quickly modify the slopes of most volcanoes. Photo by Chris Newhall, 1993 (U.S. Geological Survey). Caption: GVP.

Pyroclastic Flows on Mt Mayon


Ash clouds rise above a pyroclastic flow traveling down the Buang valley on the upper NW flank of Mayon volcano in the Philippines on September 12, 1984. The toe of the advancing pyroclastic flow is visible at the lower right. These pyroclastic flows traveled down to 100 m elevation at rates of about 20 m/sec.  Photo by Olimpio Pena, 1984 (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology). Caption: GVP.

Philippines Volcano
July 20, 2006 photo shows a phreatic explosion [ultravulcanian eruption, also described as steam-blast eruption]  occurring along the lower slopes as lava cascades down the 8,077-foot (2,462-meter) Mayon volcano in the central Bicol region in the Philippines. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez, FILE). Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

Posted in conical stratovolcano, Seismology, steam-blast eruption, Taal Volcano, ultravulcanian eruption, Volcanology | Tagged: , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Magnitude 6.1 quake strikes southern Peru

Posted by feww on July 12, 2009

A strong magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck southern Peru Sunday

U.S. Geological Survey reported a  magnitude 6.1 earthquake in southern Peru early Sunday. The quake epicenter was located about 60 km NNW of Juliaca, Peru, some 785 km  ESE of the capital city of  Lima.

There were no immediate reports of structural damage or injuries caused by the quake, which struck at a depth of about 200km.

10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,70°W

peru - us2009izaj
Earthquake Location. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 6.1
  • Date-Time:
    • Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 06:12:47 UTC
    • Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 01:12:47 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 14.990°S, 70.421°W
  • Depth:  201.6 km (125.3 miles) set by location program
  • Region:  SOUTHERN PERU
  • Distances:
    • 60 km (40 miles) NNW of Juliaca, Peru
    • 200 km (125 miles) NE of Arequipa, Peru
    • 230 km (145 miles) SE of Cuzco, Peru
    • 785 km (485 miles) ESE of LIMA, Peru
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 7.4 km (4.6 miles); depth fixed by location program
  • Parameters NST=263, Nph=263, Dmin=284.6 km, Rmss=1.19 sec, Gp= 29°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009izaj

Other Maps:

Historic Seismicity  (mag 7 and 8+ since 1900)

neic_izaj_7
7_legend

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Seismic Hazard Map

neic_izaj_w
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

    Posted in Chile Ridge, Nazca Plate, Pacific Ring of Fire, peru-chile trench, Subduction Zones | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

    Manam Volcano Coughs, Again!

    Posted by feww on July 11, 2009

    manam_ali_2009179
    Manam Volcano, just off the coast of mainland Papua New Guinea, released a faint plume on June 28, 2009. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) onboard NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite captured this photo-like image of the volcano the same day. Bright white clouds hover over the volcano’s summit. Clouds often collect over peaks, but these clouds could result from water vapor released by the volcano. Slightly darker in color, a pale blue-gray plume blows west-northwest from the summit and over the Bismarck Sea. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 Team. Caption by Michon Scott.

    Manam Volcano

    Country:  Papua New Guinea (PNG)
    Region : Northeast of New Guinea
    Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
    Last Known Eruption: 2009 (continuing)
    Summit Elevation: 1,807 m
    Latitude: 4.080°S
    Longitude: 145.037°E
    Source: Global Volcanism Program (GVP)

    Manam GVP
    The 10-km-wide island of Manam, lying 13 km off the northern coast of mainland Papua New Guinea, is one of the country’s most active volcanoes. Four large radial valleys extend from the unvegetated summit of the conical 1807-m-high basaltic-andesitic stratovolcano to its lower flanks. These “avalanche valleys,” regularly spaced 90 degrees apart, channel lava flows and pyroclastic avalanches that have sometimes reached the coast. Five small satellitic centers are located near the island’s shoreline on the northern, southern and western sides. Two summit craters are present; both are active, although most historical eruptions have originated from the southern crater, concentrating eruptive products during much of the past century into the SE avalanche valley. Frequent historical eruptions, typically of mild-to-moderate scale, have been recorded at Manam since 1616. Occasional larger eruptions have produced pyroclastic flows and lava flows that reached flat-lying coastal areas and entered the sea, sometimes impacting populated areas. Photo by Wally Johnson (Australia Bureau of Mineral Resources). Caption: GVP.

    Major Volcanoes of Papua New Guinea


    Manam, Papau New Guinea – May 9, 2006


    An unusually clear day in Papua New Guinea provided the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite with this view of the Manam Volcano on May 9, 2006. The volcano is one of the country’s most active volcanoes, and it has erupted frequently since 1616. Its current eruption began on October 24, 2004, when the volcano erupted explosively. Though MODIS has detected many ash plumes from the volcano since that time, none have been so large. Evidence that the volcano was still rumbling on May 9 comes from the tan plume of ash that streams southeast from the mountain summit.  NASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data obtained courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response team.

    More of the images acquired in 2006 are posted at: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/event.php?id=16618

    manam_omi_2005028
    When the Manam volcano erupted explosively in the middle of the night on January 27, 2005, it sent a cloud of ash and sulfur dioxide over New Guinea. The large eruption killed at least one person, injured several others, and destroyed the volcano monitoring station on the small volcanic island. About 12 hours after the eruption (January 28), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) flew over on NASA’s new Aura satellite. This image was produced from preliminary, uncalibrated data provided by OMI.

    OMI saw a large cloud of sulfur dioxide drifting west over the island of New Guinea. The gas is measured in Dobson Units (DU), the number of molecules in a square centimeter of the atmosphere. Red pixels cover the areas of highest concentration, while the lowest concentrations are represented by pink pixels. If you were to compress all of the sulfur dioxide a column of the atmosphere into a flat layer at standard temperature and pressure, one Dobson Unit would be 0.01 millimeters thick and would contain 0.0285 grams of SO2 per square meter. On January 28, the atmosphere over New Guinea contained up to 50 Dobson Units (red regions), or 1.425 grams of SO2 per square meter.

    Once in the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide combines with water to create a highly reflective haze of sulfuric acid. The haze reflects sunlight away from the Earth, so if the eruption is big enough, it can lead to cooler temperatures for several years before the sulfuric acid falls out of the atmosphere as rain. In 1991, Mount Pinatubo sent millions of tons of SO2 into the atmosphere, and global temperatures, which had been expected to rise because of the greenhouse effect, leveled out. While large, Manam’s eruption does not compare to Mount Pinatubo in magnitude, and it is not clear if or how the eruption will impact regional climate.

    For more information about Manam’s eruption, please visit the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center.

    OMI was added to the Aura satellite as part of a collaboration between the Netherlands’ Agency for Aerospace Programs and the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The sensor tracks global ozone change and monitors aerosols in the atmosphere.

    NASA image courtesy Simon Carn, Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET), University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC). Caption: Earth Observatory.

    Continued Eruption of Manam Volcano – October 24, 2004

    manam 2004 EO
    Collection: NASA Earth Observatory Collection – Title: Continued Eruption of Manam Volcano
    Description: The island of Manam sits in the Bismarck Sea across the Stephan Strait from the east coast of mainland Papua New Guinea. Only 10 kilometers wide, the island results from the activity of the Manam Volcano, one of the country?s most active. In this image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MO DIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on  , a large ash plume has spread northwestward from an eruption of Manam, located at bottom right. The thermally active areas on the volcano have been detected by MODIS and are outlined in red. Interestingly, the winds higher up in the atmosphere appear to have been blowing in the opposite direction at the time this image was captured. Streamers of clouds stretch from the coast northeastward over the ash plume and farther out to sea. In the afternoon sunlight, the thicker clouds cast shadows down onto the ash plume. North of the cloud streamers, the tail of the ash plume is being rippled by the wind into rows of evenly spaced, nearly parallel waves. The Manam Volcano has an interesting structure. Its 1,870-meter summit is bare and carved by four large avalanche valleys that radiate from the summit down the flanks. These valleys are spaced roughly 90 degrees apart around the cone-shaped mountain, and lava and pyroclastic debris flows have funneled through these valleys and reached the coast in past eruptions. The volcano has two summit craters, and both are active. The island is inhabited, and emergency agencies urged residents to move to safer parts of the island; however, according to news reports on October 27, no casualties had yet been reported. NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MOD IS Rapid Response Team, NASA-GSFC  —  UID: SPD-ETOBS-12556 –  Image ID: 173708  — Original caption.

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    Posted in aerosols, Climate Change, sulfur dioxide, volcanic activity, volcanic eruption | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA

    Posted by feww on July 10, 2009

    ENSO Cycle Report by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  July 6, 2009

    A transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is currently in progress.

    • A transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

    • Positive SST departures are increasing across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

    • Observations and dynamical model forecasts currently indicate a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is in progress.

    NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

    • El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.

    • La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.

    By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

    CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditionsto occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

    Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

    • The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

    • Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)

    • Used to place current events into a historical perspective

    • NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

    sst anomalies 7jun-4jul 2009

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C in most of the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)

    avg SST anom 7jun-4jul 09
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. North Atlantic SSTs were below average in both the tropics and portions of the high latitudes. Positive SST anomalies now extend along the west coast of North America into the Gulf of Alaska.

    weekly SST Departures

    Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesThe

    Cent and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean  Weekly Heat Content Anoms
    The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have been positive since April, and have steadily increased since that time.

    Information on this page is mirrored from ENSO Cycle Report by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  July6, 2009, with some editing by FEWW.

    NOAA Press Release:

    El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10

    July 9, 2009

    NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

    Sea Surface Temperatures the week of July 2009.
    Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July 1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño. Animation.

    High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

    NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

    “Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

    El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

    El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

    An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean.  These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

    In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

    El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.

    NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

    NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.


    Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583). Credit: CPC/ NWC/ NOAAhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) – DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by  CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP –  9 July 2009 -
    click here

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    Posted in Global SST Departures, La Niña, ONI index, SST departures, Tropical Pacific | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    Yunnan Quake Injures 300

    Posted by feww on July 10, 2009

    A Magnitude 5.7 Earthquake in China’s SW Yunnan Province Injures 300

    A magnitude 5.7 earthquake in China’s southwestern Yunnan province, which was initially reported as a magnitude 5.5 shock by USGS, has reportedly toppled 10,000 homes, injuring more than 300 people.

    [Note: The number of toppled building may have been exaggerated for political reasons.]

    The moderate-to-strong quake struck at 19:19:17  [time at epicenter] yesterday in Guantun, a small town about 100 km (60 miles) ENE of Dali, Yunnan, China. Eight aftershocks measuring 3 to 4.1 on the Richter scale followed the mainshock.

    10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,100°E

    location
    Earthquake Location. (Source: USGS)

    Seismic Hazard Map

    SHM

    Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green (Source: USGS)

    Historic Seismicity

    history Seis
    Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green (Source: USGS)

    Earthquake Details

    • Magnitude: 5.7
    • Date-Time
      • Thursday, July 09, 2009 at 11:19:17 UTC
      • Thursday, July 09, 2009 at 07:19:17 PM at epicenter
    • Location: 25.619°N, 101.086°E
    • Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
    • Region: YUNNAN, CHINA
    • Distances:
      • 100 km (60 miles) ENE of Dali, Yunnan, China
      • 120 km (75 miles) SSW of Panzhihua (Dukou), Sichuan, China
      • 695 km (430 miles) SW of Chongqing, Chongqing, China
      • 2130 km (1320 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
    • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.1 km (4.4 miles); depth fixed by location program
    • Parameters: NST= 89, Nph= 89, Dmin=975 km, Rmss=1.19 sec, Gp= 50°, M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
    • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    • Event ID: us2009iwar

    According to China’s official Xinhua News Agency:

    The quake occurred at 7:19 p.m., at a depth of about 10 kilometers, with the epicenter in the county’s Guantun Township, about 200 km from the provincial city of Kunming, said the China Earthquake Networks Center.

    More than 300 people were injured and more than 10,000 houses collapsed in a 6.0-magnitude earthquake that hit southwest China’s Yunnan Province Thursday evening, local authorities said.

    Among the victims, 30 suffered severe injuries while the other 305 were slightly injured as of 1 a.m., said the quake-relief headquarters in Yao’an County, Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture.

    The headquarters previously put the number of injuries at 336, among whom 56 were severely injured.

    More than 10,000 houses collapsed and more than 30,000 others were damaged in six counties in Chuxiong, according to the latest figure.

    Last year’s magnitude 7.9 quake struck China’s Sichuan province, northeast of yesterday’s quake, killing up to 90,000 people [many of the victims were schoolkids studying at shoddily-built schools when the disaster occurred,] and destroying as many as 5 million structures that left millions homeless.

    For detailed reports and reference on Sichuan quake see links below.

    Related Links:

    FEWW Earthquake Links

    Posted in china quake injuries, Chuxiong, seismic even report, Sichuan quake | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

    VolcanoWatch Weekly [9 July 2009]

    Posted by feww on July 9, 2009

    Volcanic Activity Report: 1 July – 8 July 2009

    Source: Global Volcanism Program (GVP) – SI/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

    New activity/unrest:

    NOTES: A large sulfur dioxide plume and several thermal anomalies from Manda Hararo were detected in satellite imagery during 28-30 June. On 8 July, a scientist that visited the area reported fresh lava flows, an eruptive fissure that was about 5 km long, and gas emitting from multiple cones.

    According to news articles, PHIVOLCS implemented increased monitoring of Mayon after a recent rise in seismicity. Incandescence in the crater and a slight increase in sulfur dioxide gas output over background levels were also noted. (Source: GVP)

    MANDA HARARO Northeastern Africa 12.17°N, 40.82°E; summit elev. 600+ m


    Steam rises from new fissures that fed lava flows at the Manda Hararo complex, as seen on August 20, 2007. The Manda Hararo complex is the southernmost axial range of western Afar. The massive complex is 105 km long and 20-30 km wide, and represents an uplifted segment of a mid-ocean ridge spreading center. Voluminous fluid lava flows issued from NNW-trending fissures of the Ethiopian rift. Photo courtesy of Gezahegn Yirgu, 2007 (Addis Ababa University). Caption: GVP.

    A large sulfur dioxide plume and several thermal anomalies from Manda Hararo were detected in satellite imagery during 28-30 June. Thermal anomalies detected in satellite imagery indicated a surface lava flow in the Karbahi region. Karbahi is a graben area with numerous active faults, fissures, and basalt flows, NW of the center of the broad Manda Hararo volcanic complex. Preliminary data suggested that the eruption was larger than the previous eruption in August 2007. On 8 July, a scientist that visited the area reported fresh lava flows, an eruptive fissure that was about 5 km long, and gas emitting from multiple cones.


    A steaming volcanic vent in the Afar desert. The black basalt rock erupted onto the surface on 28 June and now covers an area of 10 square kilometres. Photograph: Talfan Barnie, University of Cambridge via Guardian Science Blog. Image may be subject to copyright.

    Geologic Summary. The southernmost axial range of western Afar, the Manda Hararo complex is located in the Kalo plain, SSE of Dabbahu volcano. The massive complex is 105 km long and 20-30 km wide, and represents an uplifted segment of a mid-ocean ridge spreading center. A small basaltic shield volcano is located at the northern end of the complex, south of which is an area of abundant fissure-fed lava flows. Two basaltic shield volcanoes, the largest of which is Unda Hararo, occupy the center of the complex. The dominant part of the complex lies to the south, where the Gumatmali-Gablaytu fissure system is located. Voluminous fluid lava flows issued from these NNW-trending fissures, and solidified lava lakes occupy two large craters. Lava flows from the Gablaytu and Manda shield volcanoes overlie 8000-year-old sediments. Hot springs and fumaroles occur around Daorre lake. The first historical eruption from Manda Hararo produced fissure-fed lava flows in 2007. (Source: GVP)

    Ongoing Activity:

    Latest U.S. Volcano Alerts and Updates

    Alaska Volcano Observatory Update: July 09, 2009 0105 UTC

    • Redoubt Activity – Color Code YELLOW : Alert Level ADVISORY

    • Cleveland Activity – Color Code – YELLOW : Alert Level – ADVISORY

    HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE: Wednesday, July 8, 2009  18:14 UTC

    • Kilauea Activity  -  Color Code ORANGE : Alert Level WATCH

    • Mauna Loa Activity – Color Code YELLOW : Alert Level ADVISORY

    Related Links:

    FEWW Links:

    Posted in Chaiten, Sakura-jima, Shiveluch, Ubinas, Volcanic Activity Report, volcanism | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    Arctic sea ice has thinned dramatically

    Posted by feww on July 8, 2009

    Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between the winters of 2004 and 2008—NASA

    Analysis of data from a NASA Earth-orbiting spacecraft shows that “Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between the winters of 2004 and 2008, with thin seasonal ice replacing thick older ice as the dominant type for the first time on record.”  The latest discovery “provide further evidence for the rapid, ongoing transformation of the Arctic’s ice cover.”

    324864main_kwokfig1_small
    ICESat measures the distances to the top of the snow cover and to the sea surface. The difference between the two quantities gives the total “freeboard” measurement; that is, the amount of ice above the water line relative to the local sea level. Credit: Courtesy of Norbert Untersteiner, University of Washington

    NASA says their and the University of Washington in Seattle researchers carried out “the most comprehensive survey to date using observations from NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite, known as ICESat,” to determine “the first basin-wide estimate of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean’s ice cover.”  Their research team, led by Ron Kwok of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., published its findings on July 7 in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans.

    365867main_earth1-20090707-small
    This schematic shows the geometric relationship between freeboard (the amount of ice above the water line), snow depth, and ice thickness. Buoyancy causes a fraction (about 10 percent) of sea ice to stick out above the sea surface. By knowing the density of the ice and applying “Archimedes’ Principle” — an object immersed in a fluid is buoyed up by a force equal to the weight of the fluid displaced by the object — the total thickness of the ice can be calculated. Credit: Ron Kwok, NASA/JPL

    365869main_earth2-20090707-small
    ICESat measurements of winter multi-year ice cover in the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2008, along with the corresponding downward trend in overall winter sea ice volume, and switch in dominant ice type from multi-year ice to first-year ice. Credit: Ron Kwok, NASA/JPL

    365871main_earth3-20090707-small
    ICESat measurements of winter multi-year ice cover in the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2008, along with the corresponding downward trend in overall winter sea ice volume, and switch in dominant ice type from multi-year ice to first-year ice. Credit: Ron Kwok, NASA/JPL


    326199main_2003winter_small

    Data visualization of Arctic sea ice thickness, as measured by ICESat, shows the decline of the thickest ice (white, 4 to 5 meters thick) and increase in thinner ice (deep blue, 0 to 1 meter) from 2003 to 2008. Credit: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio.

    326207main_2008winter_small

    326208main_seaicediscretecolorbarData visualization of ice thickness, as measured by ICESat, shows the yearly growth (winter) and retreat (fall) of ice in the Arctic Ocean. Credit: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio


    More Images Available at Source

    Related Links:

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    Posted in Archimedes’ Principle, arctic ocean, freeboard ice, winter sea ice | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

    China, Vietnam Submereged Under Floods

    Posted by feww on July 8, 2009

    Earth Observatory Image [acquired June 29, 2009 - July 5, 2009]

    Intense Rain Floods China and Vietnam

    schina_trm_2009187

    schinaanom_trm_2009187_palette

    Floods swept across southern China and northern Vietnam in the wake of several days of extreme rain in early July 2009. This image, based on data collected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, shows rainfall anomalies for the week of June 29 through July 5, 2009. Blue indicates regions where rainfall was much heavier than average, while brown indicates that less rain fell than average. A broad swath of blue covers southern China and northern Vietnam, revealing patterns of heavy rain during the week. NASA image courtesy Jesse Allen based on data provided by the TRMM team. Caption by Holli Riebeek.

    Widespread flooding and landslides have killed 75 people, with up to 1.5 million people left homeless in southern China, according to various reports. In Vietnam, up to 50 people may have died from severe weather, and dozens are missing. More intense rain was forecast in the region.

    Related Links:

    Posted in asian floods, asian rains, china floods, Intense Rain, vietnam floods | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

     
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