Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response could occur by early 2016

Archive for August, 2009

Powerful Quake Strikes Seabed Off W Indonesia

Posted by feww on August 16, 2009

A powerful earthquake measuring 6.7Mw strikes off the coast of western Indonesia

The powerful earthquake, originally reported as measuring 7.0Mw, struck in the Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia, about 110 km WSW of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia, at a depth of 44.8km on Sunday August 16, 2009, USGS reported.

The earthquake, which was later downgraded by USGS EQ Hazard Program was followed by a cluster of  aftershocks at the time of writing, the largest of which measured 5.9Mw.

[ Note: FEWW Moderators have noted that at least a dozen or so earthquakes which were initially reported as measuring 6.0 or greater, have been subsequently downgraded by USGS without any explanation.  Moderators also noted an  earthquake reported in Alaska, which measured greater than 5.0, was withdrawn from the USGS report last week, again without any explanation.]

See also FEWW comments:

http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/magnitude-6-9-quake-strikes-gulf-of-california/#comment-3772

http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/magnitude-6-9-quake-strikes-gulf-of-california/#comment-3797

According to Indonesia’s Meteorological and Geophysics Agency there was NO tsunami warning.

Several people received minor injuries as they fled building in Padang, where a small number of buildings were damage, according to reports.

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 6.7
  • Date-Time
    • Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 07:38:25 UTC
    • Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 02:38:25 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 1.397°S, 99.473°E
  • Depth: 44.8 km (27.8 miles)
  • Region:  KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
  • Distances
    • 110 km (70 miles) WSW of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 305 km (190 miles) SW of Pekanbaru, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 560 km (345 miles) SSW of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
    • 960 km (600 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.8 km (3.6 miles); depth +/- 10.2 km (6.3 miles)
  • Parameters: NST=240, Nph=240, Dmin=683.1 km, Rmss=1.04 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009kjak

10-degree Map Centered at 0°N,100°E

us2009kjak
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

Historic Seismicity [USGS]

Historic Seismicity
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Seismic Hazard Map [USGS]
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

Posted in aftershocks, Kepulauan Mentawai, Pekanbaru, seismic activity, seismic hazard report | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

Meet Bill and Ana, 2009 First Named Storms

Posted by feww on August 16, 2009

2009 Tropical Storm Season Off to Busy Start

bill and ana

The red shaded area covering about a half of Florida panhandle is small area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico centered about 130km SW of Tampa, which according to the  NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center is becoming better organized with the possibility of developing a “closed surface circulation” with a more than 50 percent probability of developing into a Tropical Cyclone later today.

GULF  IR
Area of low pressure, Gulf of Mexico, IR image.  Click on the image to enlarge and update.

“THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.” NHC said.

Meanwhile, back in the ocean, Ana and Bill are moving west across the Atlantic Ocean
TS ANA  RAINBOW IMAGE
TS ANA: Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS ANA: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
ANA 024714W5_NL_sm
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

ana 2
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours.
Click on the image to enlarge and update.

BILL rb-l
TS BILL:
Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS BILL: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
BILL 024741W5_NL_sm
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

BILL 024741
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

FEWW Forecast: Florida, the north and NE Gulf areas may be in for an extremely wet season in 2009.

Posted in Florida deluge, gulf of mexico, path of TS Ana, Path of TS BILL, Tropical Storm watch | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

California: Biggest Desert in N America

Posted by feww on August 16, 2009

CALIF DESERTIFICATION: NOT IF, BUT WHEN

Desertification of California in the Near Future Is Almost a Certainty

Drought often have significant environmental, economic and social impacts:

  • Shortages of water for agricultural, industrial, municipal and personal uses.
  • Death of livestock.
  • Crop failure, reduced crop yields.
  • Wildfires are more common during periods of drought.
  • Dust storms created by drought-enhanced land erosion and by desertification.
  • Malnutrition, dehydration and related diseases.
  • Famine due to lack of water for irrigation.
  • Social unrest.
  • Mass migration, resulting in internal displacement and international refugees.
  • War over natural resources, including water and food.
  • Reduced electricity production due to insufficient available coolant for power stations and reduced water flow through hydroelectric dams.
  • Snakes have been known to emerge and snakebites become more common.
  • Creates windblown dust bowls which erodes the landscape, damages terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitat. (Source)

US Drought Monitor


Objective Long Term Drought Indicator Blend Percentiles


Objective Short Term Drought Indicator Blend Percentiles
To view regional drought conditions, go to US Drought Monitor and click on the map. State maps can be accessed from regional maps.

Drought in California’s Central Valley

[Image acquired July 12 - 27, 2009 by EO - Posted Aug 16, 2009]
centralvalleyndvia_tmo_2009193
By the end of July 2009, California was well into its third dry year in a row. The image was made from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite between July 12 and July 27, 2009. The sensor records the amount of light that photosynthesizing plants absorb and reflect as they grow. The image shows how vegetation fared in 2009 compared to the average based on observations between 2000 and 2008. In places where plants were growing more than average, the image is green. Cream is used to denote average growth, and brown points to less plant growth than average. In this image, dark squares of brown are scattered across much of the Westlands and Tulare Lake water districts. These brown squares are fields that would ordinarily support irrigated crops, but in 2009 the crops were not growing well or the fields lay fallow.

References

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data provided by Inbal Reshef, Global Agricultural Monitoring Project. Caption by Holli Riebeek and Rebecca Lindsey. [Edited by FEWW]

Related Links:

Posted in Mojavefication, soil erosion, topsoil, Tulare Lake, Westlands | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Q. How Can You Tell When Ecosystem Nears Collapse?

Posted by feww on August 15, 2009

A. When 95 percent of the salmon don’t return to spawn!

About 95 percent of sockeye salmon did not return to Fraser River on Canada’s Pacific Coast to spawn this summer

sockeye-salmon
Sockeye salmon. Photo sourced from here!

Nearly 11 million bright-red sockeye salmon that were expected to return to spawn on the Fraser River,  once known as the world’s most fertile spawning ground for sockeye, which empties into the Pacific ocean near Vancouver, British Columbia, have disappeared this summer. According to the Canadian government estimates fewer than 1 million returned, Reuters reported.

“The Canadian government has closed the river to commercial and recreational sockeye fishing for the third straight year, hitting the livelihood of nearby Indian reserves.”

“It’s quite the shocking drop,” said Stan Proboszcz, fisheries biologist at the Watershed Watch Salmon Society. “No one’s exactly sure what happened to these fish.”

Salmons hatch in freshwater rivers. They then migrate out to the ocean where they stay throughout their pre-reproductive age, and return as adult fish to spawn in natal rivers.

fraser river
Watershed of the Fraser River. The Fraser River is the longest river in British Columbia, Canada. Click on the map to enlarge.

The Canadian authorities have suggested a number of reasons for the sockeye’s disappearance:

  1. “Climate change may have reduced food supply for salmon in the ocean.” [i.e., they starved to death!]
  2. “The commercial fish farms that the young Fraser River salmon pass en route to the ocean may have infected them with sea lice, a marine parasite.” [Possibly, the most sensible of the three suggestions.]
  3. “The rising temperature of the river may have weakened the fish.” [By the time they enter the ocean, they lose their strength and the will to live and die off.]

“The Canadian government doesn’t know what’s killing the fish, but believes the sockeye are dying off in the ocean, not in fresh water, based on healthy out-migrations, said Jeff Grout, regional resource manager of salmon for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.” Reuters reported.

This one made it, just. But not enough  happy returns!


A sockeye salmon scurries through shallow water in the Adams River while preparing to spawn near Chase, British Columbia northeast of Vancouver October 11, 2006. REUTERS/Andy Clark. Image may be subject to copyright.

Grout also revealed that Skeena River in northern British Columbia has experienced “lower-than-expected return” this summer, but could not elaborate  on the overall fate of the Pacific salmon fishery.

The reduced salmon return has multiple knock-on effect on the ecosystems around the Fraser River, Proboszcz said. Adult salmon die after spawning, creating a food source for bears and eagles and providing nutrients for plants.

“Food companies that rely on the Fraser for some of their salmon supply will have to look to other areas of British Columbia or Alaska, Grout said.”

What that means is that there would be even more pressure on other fisheries, which are already strained to the point of depletion and collapse.

The fact is our oceans are dying; they are pumped with unbelievable amounts of carbon dioxide, sulfuric acid [just two of the hundreds of gasses and chemicals humans release to the environment,] farm runoff, toxic chemicals, raw sewage, industrial waste, household garbage, the worst imaginable cocktail of poison from tourist and shipping boats, crude oil spills, nuclear waste/spills, oil and gas drilling waste …

Related Links:

Posted in collapsing fisheries, dying oceans, ecosystem collapse, Fish Eggs Holocaust, fishery collapse, knock-on effect, sockeye salmon | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

VolcanoWatch Weekly [13 August 2009]

Posted by feww on August 14, 2009

Volcanic Activity Report:  5  – 11 August 2009

VoW: Kilauea

Kilauea
Since the vent collapse in late June, Kilauea’s summit plume had been wispy, translucent and low in SO2 content, resulting in improved air quality in Kona and Ka‘u. However, the summit vent has picked up in activity again this week. (Photo courtesy of Hawaiian Volcano Observatory). Source: Click Here.

New activity/unrest:

Source: Global Volcanism Program (GVP) – SI/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Ongoing Activity:

Related Links:

FEWW Links:

Posted in Volcanic Activity Report, volcanism, Volcano Hazard, volcanoes, VolcanoWatch | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Exxon Pays Peanuts to the Monkeys

Posted by feww on August 14, 2009

Exxon Killing Fields in 5 States

ExxonMobil Corp pays $600,000 for killing migratory birds in five states

Exxon Mobil  Corp killed some 85 protected birds, including hawks, owls and waterfowl at Exxon drilling and production facilities in Colorado, Kansas, Wyoming, Oklahoma and Texas.

Rex WTillerson Exxon
ExxonMobil Corporation CEO, Rex W. Tillerson, shows how Exxon is planning on pushing the birds away before they could come into contact with the corporation’s filthy facilities in the five states in the US. Image may be subject to copyright.

The U.S. Justice Department said on Thursday that “Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil and gas company, had agreed to pay $400,000 in fines and $200,000 in community service payments as part of the plea deal.” Reuters reported.

Exxon reportedly pleaded guilty in Denver federal court to violating a federal law designed to protect migratory birds.

“According to court documents, most of the birds died after exposure to hydrocarbons in uncovered natural gas well reserve pits and waste water storage facilities.”

tailing pond
Tailing Ponds are responsible for killing thousands of birds, including endangeerd species each year. Source of the photo. Image may be subject to copyright.

Texas-based Exxon must now protect the birds by preventing them  from coming into contact with tailing ponds in the five states, DOJ said.

Related Links:

Posted in exxon fined peanuts, exxon killing fields, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, WYOMING | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Planet Earth 2009

Posted by feww on August 14, 2009

Images of the Week: Coping with Human Abuse!

This is what Earth looked like in 2009—just a few years before she…

As of August 14, 2009 some 116 people confirmed dead in Taiwan with hundreds more uncounted for, feared to have been buried alive by mudslides…

laonung  taiwan afp -
Roads, bridges, riverbanks, homes, hotels and business all demolished and swept away by floods and mudslides in
Shaolin Village, southern Taiwan. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyrights.

Taiwan-8_599688a AFP
Southern Taiwan after Morakot. More than 2,500mm of rain, the entire year’s quota,  fell in just 2 days. Photo AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Japan-typhoon_599632a kobe shimbun
Collapse: A bridge collapses on the Maruyama River, Asago city, Northern Hyōgo Prefecture, Japan. To the Northeast of Taiwan, typhoon Etau killed 13 people in western Japan, when local rivers burst their banks, destroying houses and drowning people in their vehicles. Etau, with winds approaching 130km per hour,  dumped as much as 640mm of rain on Hyōgo and Okayama prefectures and the island of Shikoku. Photo; The Kobe Shimbun/EPA. Image may be subject to copyright.

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Must Read Links:

Posted in china floods, Extreme Rain Events, Maruyama River, mudslides, south taiwan floods, Typhoon Morakot | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Northern India’s Groundwater is Rapidly Depleting

Posted by feww on August 13, 2009

India’s aquifer depletion poses serious threats in  potable water supplies, farming and food production.

A new study by a team of hydrologists, led by NASA’s Matt Rodell,  says Northern India’s water level is plunging because water is being pumped and consumed faster than the aquifers can be recharged naturally. Their research — published in the August 20 issue of Nature — uses data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE).


The map shows groundwater changes in India during 2002-08, with losses in red and gains in blue, based on GRACE satellite observations. The estimated rate of depletion of groundwater in northwestern India is 4.0 centimeters of water per year, equivalent to a water table decline of 33 centimeters per year. Increases in groundwater in southern India are due to recent above-average rainfall, whereas rain in northwestern India was close to normal during the study period. Credit: I. Velicogna/UC Irvine.
Source: NASA Earth Science News.

“If measures are not taken to ensure sustainable groundwater usage, consequences for the 114 million residents of the region may include a collapse of agricultural output and severe shortages of potable water,” said Rodell.

For more details, see original entry: India faces severe water, farming, food crisis

Related Links:

Posted in Climate Change, first wave of collapsing cities, global water crisis, iindia water scarcity, India food security | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

3rd Powerful Quake in 3 Days Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on August 13, 2009

More Powerful Quakes May Strike Region:FEWW

Magnitude 6.7 Mw the third significant quake to strike Japan region in three days

Another powerful earthquake measuring 6.7Mw occurred about 60km ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan Region, USGS reported, striking at a depth of 51 km at 22:48:51 UTC on Wednesday.

A moderate aftershock measuring 4.7 reportedly occurred about three hours later, on Thursday, August 13, 2009 at 01:53:06 UTC [USGS Event ID: us2009kgad.]  See smaller square in red superimposed on the mainshock marked in orange.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

us2009kfcp
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

This Earthquake

  • Magnitude: 6.7
  • Date-Time:
    • Wednesday, August 12, 2009 at 22:48:51 UTC
    • Thursday, August 13, 2009 at 07:48:51 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 32.816°N, 140.382°E
  • Depth: 51 km (31.7 miles) set by location program
  • Region: IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
  • Distances:
    • 60 km (40 miles) ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
    • 300 km (190 miles) SE of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
    • 320 km (200 miles) S of TOKYO, Japan
    • 325 km (200 miles) SE of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 5.6 km (3.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
  • Parameters:  NST=156, Nph=156, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1 sec, Gp= 58°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009kfcp

This earthquake was the third significant seismic event to strike Japan region in just over 72 hours.

1. A powerful earthquake measuring 7.1Mw struck about 165km W of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan, at a depth of 303.1km at on August 9, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC. [EQ No 1 on the location map below.]

2. A strong earthquake measuring 6.4 occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday, August 10, 2009. [No 2 on the location map below.]

3. A 3rd earthquake [this report] measuring 6.7 occurred about 60km ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan region at a depth of 51 km at 22:48:51 UTC on August 12, 2009. [No 3 on the location map below.]

Location map japan quakes
Location map of the three significant earthquakes that struck Japan between 9 and 12 August 2009. Original Map: USGS

Earthquake Location Maps [USGS]

neic_kfcp_cy  izu  12aug 2009

neic_kfcp -  izu  12aug 2009 zoom in
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green [Source: USGS]

Seismic Hazard Map
neic_kfcp_w  izu
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green [Source: USGS]

Historic Seismicity
us2009kcaz izu HisSeis
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green [Source: USGS]

Tsunami Information

Japan Meteorological Agency reported NO tsunami damage by this earthquake, but said there may be slight sea level changes in the region.

Related Links:

Posted in 3rd Japan Quake, earthquake forecast, Hachijo-jima, seismic event report, Shizuoka | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Alaska: One Fire Away From Exporting Charcoal

Posted by feww on August 12, 2009

Images of Day:

Forest Fires Burn Massive Scars on Alaska’s Face

Background: Alaska on Fire AND First the Beetles Attacked!

Human activity is ultimately responsible for the intensity and frequency of most present-day forest fires like Alaska’s; to call them ‘wildfires,’ therefore, is disingenuous and unintelligent.

Burn Scars Near Confluence of Yukon and Tanana Rivers, Alaska
infrared-enhanced (visible, shortwave-IR, and near-IR)                           [acquired August 9, 2009]
Bonanza_Creek_TMO_2009221_fc

natural-color                                                                                           [acquired August 9, 2009]
Bonanza_Creek_TMO_2009221
Cool, wet weather over the second weekend of August moderated fire activity in interior Alaska. When the skies cleared on August 9, 2009, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured these images. Fires that had been churning out thick clouds of smoke the previous week were quiet; according to the daily situation report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center on August 11, 2009, however, the fires were still smoldering.

The top image is an infrared-enhanced view of the area at the confluence of the Tanana River with the Yukon, west of Fairbanks, made from a combination of visible, shortwave-infrared, and near-infrared light. Vegetation is bright green, water is dark blue (nearly black in marsh pools), and burned areas are brick red. The largest fire in the state, the Railbelt Complex, is partially hidden by clouds at image right. The lower image shows a natural-color (photo-like) view of the area. The muddy waters of the two rivers are light brown, and different kinds of vegetation, including spruce forests and muskeg, appear in shades of green. The burned areas are dark brown. NASA image courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.

Fires in Interior Alaska [acquired August 3, 2009]
Alaska_AMO_2009215
Red flag warnings, cautioning residents that weather conditions were dangerously favorable for the rapid growth of wildfires, were in place for much of eastern Alaska on August 3, 2009, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image. Places where the sensor detected actively burning fires are marked with red dots. Hundreds of thousands of acres were burning at the time of this image. The largest fire, the Railbelt Complex, had grown to more than 481,000 acres as of August 4, and the southern perimeter of the fire was active along a 12-mile front, according to the morning situation report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center.

The large image provided above is at MODIS’ maximum spatial resolution (level of detail). Twice-daily images of interior Alaska are available from the MODIS Rapid Response Team in additional resolutions and formats, including a false-color version that highlights the location of burn scars and georeferenced images that can be used in Google Earth.  NASA images courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team. All captions by Rebecca Lindsey.

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Posted in Alaska, alaskan forest, Arctic tundra, Climate Change, forest fires, forests natural defense, Global Warming, greenhouse gases, Railbelt complex, Tanana River, Yukon River, Zitziana | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Morakot: An Early Dividend of Climate Change

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Foreboding Future of Climate Change

Morakot dumps record 2,500mm of rain on parts of Taiwan

In Taiwan, typhoon Morakot dumped a record 2,500 mm (100 inches) of rain on Pingtung County,  officials said Tuesday, causing severe flooding in at least three coastal towns and a dozen more villages.

The storm triggered the worst flooding in Taiwan in living memory, killing at least 50 people and injuring dozens more. About 60 people were reported missing, with another 400 – 600 people unaccounted for.

In China, Morakot has affected up to 12 million people in four coastal  provinces, killing at least 10 people with dozens more injured. The storm destroyed a many as 10,000 homes, reports said.

Slow-Moving Typhoon Morakot Soakes Taiwan

morakot_trm_2009221

morakot_trm_2009221_palette

After the slow-moving typhoon Morakot made landfall in Tawian, it soaked the southern part of the island with heavy rain between August 3 and 9, 2009, generating deadly landslides. The largest slide occurred in the southern mountains of Taiwan.

This image of the rainfall accumulation along Morakot’s path through the western Pacific is based on estimates from the near-real-time, Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, which is produced by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The analysis depends on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Increasing storm intensity (beginning with Tropical Depression) is indicated by darker shades of red. Morakot intensified to Category 2 strength prior to landfall. Highest rainfall totals (greater than 900 millimeters, or about 34 inches) are dark blue, and they are concentrated over the mountains of southern Taiwan. According to BBC news, the flooding in Taiwan is the worst in 50 years. NASA image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey. [Edited by FEWW.]

Taiwan Asia Storm
In this image taken on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009, and released by the Taiwan Military News Agency on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009, a soldier sifts through debris from Typhoon Morakot in southern Taiwan’s Kaohsiung county. A mudslide touched off by the deadly typhoon buried a remote mountain village in Taiwan, leaving at least 400 people unaccounted for, while officially there are 38 dead and 62 missing. (Taiwan Military News Agency/via AP).

Taiwan Asia Storm
In this image taken on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009, and released by the Taiwan Military News Agency on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009, an aerial view of the flooded village of Shao Lin inflicted by Typhoon Morakot is seen in southern Taiwan’s Kaohsiung county. A mudslide touched off by the deadly typhoon buried a remote mountain village in Taiwan, leaving at least 400 people unaccounted for, while officially there are 38 dead and 62 missing. (Taiwan Military News Agency/via AP).

Related Links:

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Posted in record rainfall, shao lin, tropical storms, Typhoon Etau, typhoon season | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 2

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

A great earthquake may strike Alaska in 2009

FEWW Alaska Earthquake Forecast – Update # 2

FEWW Moderators believe a magnitude 9.2Mw earthquake could strike Alaska anytime.

Details of FEWW Alaska Earthquake Forecast were initially posted at Magnitude MW 5.7 Quake Hits Southern Alaska on January 26, 2009, and were subsequently revised in FEWW: Alaska Earthquake Warning on August 6, 2009.

FEWW has now revised the Alaska Earthquake Forecast as follows:

  • Magnitude: 9.2
  • Probability of occurrence: 0.8
  • Estimated date of occurrence: November 19, 2009
  • Date uncertainty: +/- 90 days.
  • Estimated Location: 60.414N, 149.496W
  • Location uncertainty: Radius of about 50km from the estimated epicenter
  • Estimated depth: 8km [+/-2.6km]


FEWW Alaska Earthquake Forecast. Approximate location. Source of original map: Google Earth. Map may be subject to copyright.

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Posted in Alaska Earthquake forecast, Alaska Earthquake Warning, alaska great earthquake, anchorage earthquake, Earthquake forecasts | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

California forecast earthquake may be more powerful than originally estimated

FEWW Moderators have upgraded their forecast for a California earthquake to a Magnitude 7.9 event.

For initial forecast see California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

For Update # 1 see:  California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]

San Andreas Fault


The topographic texture of western California is controlled by the San Andreas fault system, the tectonic expression of the Pacific plate sliding northwestward along the western margin of the North American plate. Hundreds of miles long and up to a mile wide, the San Andreas Fault Zone has been active since its original development in the Tertiary.  About 10 percent of the present plate motion is compressional, which means horizontal forces are shortening and wrinkling the crust along the fault zone. This movement has created the parallel coastal northwest-southeast mountain ranges such as the Coastal Ranges along California’s central coast. Comparatively quiet during the period between the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta event, the fault is again showing activity. Image and caption: nationalatlas.gov


Fault map for San Francisco Bay Area from http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/pickcity.html, annotated and colors modified by User: Leonard G. Released into the public domain (
Leonard G. ).

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Posted in aftershock forecast, California earthquake, California earthquake forecast, earthquake forecast, seismic event forecas | Tagged: , , , , , | 16 Comments »

Strong Quake Strikes Near Shizuoka, Japan

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Magnitude 6.4 Quake strikes Near Shizuoka, the South Coast of Honshu, Japan

A strong earthquake measuring 6.4Mw occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, USGS reported, striking at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday.

The mainshock was followed by a cluster of a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which has measured about 3.9 so far.

Japan’s broadcaster, NHK, reported that the quake had rattled buildings in Tokyo, and that bullet train services had been halted pending track inspection.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

us2009kdb4 shizuoka
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 6.4
  • Date-Time:
    • Monday, August 10, 2009 at 20:07:07 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 05:07:07 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 34.727°N, 138.278°E
  • Depth: 26.8 km (16.7 miles)
  • Region: NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
  • Distances
    • 30 km (20 miles) SSW of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
    • 55 km (35 miles) E of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
    • 110 km (70 miles) SSW of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
    • 170 km (105 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 9.7 km (6.0 miles); depth +/- 3.6 km (2.2 miles)
  • Parameters: NST= 74, Nph= 75, Dmin=708 km, Rmss=1.24 sec, Gp= 50°,  M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event: ID us2009kdb4

Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale

20090811050941353-110507 jma  seismic intensity
The map shows the regions where the maximum observed Seismic Intensity was 3 or greater [see date and time.]
JMA Seismic Intensity scale is divided into 10 categories: Scales  0 to 4, 5 lower, 5 upper, 6 lower, 6 upper and 7. For an explanation of the intensity see: Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale. Image Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency.

Tsunami Advisory

Japan’s Meteorological agency, which registered the quake as 6.6, issued an initial tsunami advisory based on its observation at on august 111, 2009 at 07:13 local time, and reported up to 60cm waves at Yaizu. The initial tsunami advisory was  canceled soon after. No tsunami damage was reported.

Initial Tsunami Observation

04_11_00_20090811062229 jma 1
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

Maximum Tsunami Observation -
Tsunami Information NUMBER 6

Issued at 06:22 JST 11 Aug 2009

04_11_00_20090811062229 JMA
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

A Seismically Intense Day or So!

In a 35-hr period between August 9,  2009,  at 10:55:56  and August 10,  at 20:07:08  5 strong to powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Ring of Fire and Andaman Islands.

Items listed are in order of  L to R:)   Magnitude, Date, Time, Latitude (degrees), Longitude (degrees), Depth, Locatoion

  • 7.1   2009/08/09   10:55:56    33.144   138.040   303.1     IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
  • 6.6   2009/08/10   04:06:32    -11.596   166.093   42.8      SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
  • 5.7   2009/08/10   17:46:28    -3.127     143.179    35.0      NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
  • 7.6   2009/08/10   19:55:39    14.013    92.923       33.1      ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
  • 6.4   2009/08/10   20:07:08   34.727   138.278    26.8       NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

usgs-wall st map
Source: USGS/WSJ on line. The map doesn’t include the Mag 7.1 Izu Isles quake

Related Links:

Posted in Japan Tsunami Information, seismic event report, Seismic Hazard, tokyo earthquake forecast, Tsunami Observation | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

El Niño Update – 10 August 2009

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 10 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 1.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) -  Recent Evolution

SST departures Aug 2009

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Summary:

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page

Related Links:

El Niño Updates

El Niño, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, equatorial Pacific Ocean, , , , , .

Posted in El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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