Arctic ice cover third-smallest area on record

Data reinforces strong negative trend in summertime Arctic sea ice cover

Arctic sea ice cover seems to have reached its minimum extent for 2009, said the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), its third-lowest extent on record (the satellite measurements began in 1979). “While this year’s minimum extent is above the record and near-record minimums of the last two years, it further reinforces the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent observed over the past thirty years.”

Daily Arctic sea ice extent on September 12 was 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that day. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Summary of Conditions

Arctic sea ice cover fell to 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles) on September 12, 2009, which appears to have been the lowest point of the year, since sea ice has now entered  its annual growth growth due to autumn cooling. “The 2009 minimum is the third-lowest recorded since 1979, 580,000 square kilometers (220,000 square miles) above 2008 and 970,000 square kilometers (370,000 square miles) above the record low in 2007.” NSIDC reported.

The 2009 minimum ice cover

• 1.61 million square kilometers (620,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum and
• 1.28 million square kilometers (490,000 square miles) below the thirty-year 1979 to 2008 average minimum.

The graph above shows daily sea ice extent as of September 15, 2009. The solid light blue line indicates 2009; dark blue shows 2008, dashed green indicates 2007; light green shows 2005, and solid gray indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Conditions in context

This year, the minimum extent did not fall as low as the minimums of the last two years, because temperatures through the summer were relatively cooler. The Chukchi and Beaufort seas were especially cool compared to 2007. Winds also tended to disperse the ice pack over a larger region.

While the ice extent this year is higher than the last two years, scientists do not consider this to be a recovery. Despite conditions less favorable to ice loss, the 2009 minimum extent is still 24% below the 1979-2000 average, and 20% below the thirty-year 1979-2008 average minimum. In addition, the Arctic is still dominated by younger, thinner ice, which is more vulnerable to seasonal melt. The long-term decline in summer extent is expected to continue in future years.

This image compares differences in ice-covered areas between September 12, 2009, the date of this year’s minimum, and September 16, 2007, the record low minimum extent. Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2007 and 2009, while white and dark gray areas show ice cover unique to 2009 and to 2007, respectively. Sea Ice Index data. About the data. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Comparison of the 2009 and 2007 September minima

The spatial pattern of the 2009 minimum extent was different than that of 2007, partly because of differing wind patterns. Compared to this year, 2007 had substantially more ice loss in the central Arctic, north of the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas because winds pushed ice in these regions northward. However, this year the Arctic lost more ice in the Beaufort Sea than 2007 because of southwesterly winds pushing the ice edge toward the northeast. Overall, the pattern of ice loss is similar to 2008 (not shown), although it resulted from different atmospheric circulation patterns.

Once again this year, the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic Ocean along the coast of Siberia opened. Although some ice remained in certain regions, two German ships managed to navigate the passage with Russian icebreaker escorts. Russian vessels have traversed the passage many times over the years, but as ice extent drops there is more interest from other nations. As in 2008, the shallow Amundsen’s Northwest Passage briefly opened, but the deeper Parry’s Channel of the Northwest Passage did not. In 2007, both channels were open.

Notes on interpretation of  “minimum”

To overcome the seasonal variability of sea ice, NSIDC uses a five-day running mean value to decide the minimum cover. “We have now seen four days of gains in extent. It is still possible that ice extent could fall slightly, because of either further melting or a contraction in the area of the pack due to the motion of the ice.”

“For example, in 2005, the time series began to level out in early September, prompting speculation that we had reached the minimum. However, the sea ice contracted later in the season, again reducing sea ice extent and causing a further drop in the absolute minimum. When all the data for September are in, we will confirm the minimum ice extent for the season.” NSIDC said.

Final analysis pending

NSIDC says it will issue a formal press release in early October, “with full analysis of the melt season, and graphics comparing this year to the long-term record.”  They will also report the monthly average September sea ice cover, “the measure scientists rely on for accurate analysis and comparison over the long term. ” They will also  continue to report  their analysis of sea ice conditions as frequently as the changing sea ice conditions demands. They will also continue to update their near-real-time daily image of the ice extent.

How does the loss of ice cover affect us and other animals?

• Pristine Arctic regions would be spoiled by additional shipping, as new maritime routes open.
• The Arctic ice cap, regulats Earth’s climate system by reflecting sunlight back into space, among other functions.
• Less ice also means darker, more sunlight-absorbing sea surface which additionally accelerate the climate change positive feedback loop, contributing to chaotic climate patterns.
• Polar bears and many marine species lose their habitats.
• Warmer [and dirtier] waters increase mosquito reproduction, which in turn increase the incidence of infectious diseases.
• For other damaging effects, see links below.

Related Links:

• Climate Change: For what you’re about to receive…
• Arctic Warmest in 2000 Years
• Another Ocean Record Broken
• US glaciers shrinking dramatically
• Alaska: One Fire Away From Exporting Charcoal

• Alaska on Fire
• Arctic Tundra 4ºC Hotter Since 1970
• US Gov Releases Intelligence Images of Arctic Ice
• Strong Quake Strikes Baffin Bay
• For more links click  here >> Polar Ice Caps

Drought Kills!

Image of the Day

Drought and Deluge: The Great Extinguishers of Life

A worker tries to lift up a weak cow from among the carcasses of drought-stricken cows in a paddock at the Kenya Meat Commission (KMC) factory near Athi River, 50km (31 miles) east of the capital Nairobi, September 16, 2009. Farmers are making their way to the recently revived KMC in a bid to cut their losses by selling their drought-stricken livestock for meat.  REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• Drought and Deluge

Trafigura Knew!

Dumping Toxic Waste in Africa

Images of the Day: Trafigura knew of Probo Koala deadly cargo

Can you differentiate between Trafigura business activities and the mafia?

Go “Trafigura” it out!

Estonia: The Probo Koala, branded a toxic crime scene by environmental activists who accuse Trafigura of intoxicating Africans with a poisonous waste shipment.  Photograph: Christian Aslund/Greenpeace.

[In 1996,] 400 tonnes of toxic waste from the cargo vessel Probo Koala, chartered to British-based oil trading company Trafigura, were offloaded at the West African port of Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast. The waste was loaded on to trucks and dumped around the city. Over the following weeks, thousands of residents found themselves choking and coughing, some vomiting. At least 10 are said to have died and many still bare the scars. Now 30,000 Ivorians are taking a class action at the high court in London asking for damages from Trafigura, who denied they were responsible for any deaths or injuries. —Guardian UK.

BBC Newsnight has uncovered evidence revealing that oil-trading company Trafigura knew that waste dumped in Ivory Coast in 2006 was hazardous.

A Trafigura victim. Source of the Image

A civil protection member of Ivory Coast points at a site polluted with toxic waste from the Probo Koala ship at the Akouedo district in Abidjan on September 19, 2006. In mid-August 2006 the Probo Koala ship unloaded in Abidjan more than 500 tonnes of a highly toxic mixture of oil residue and caustic soda used to rinse out the ship’s tanks. The trial of 12 people charged with involvement in the 2006 toxic waste pollution scandal in the Ivory Coast is set to go ahead on September 29, 2008 according to court documents. The toxic sludge, brought into Ivory Coast by Dutch-based multinational trading company Trafigura, killed 16 people and caused an estimated 95,000 people to seek medical attention. Photo: Getty Images, 1996. Caption: Daily Life. Image may be subject to copyright.

Trafigura, which had first denied liability, has now offered to pay damages to settle a class action brought on behalf of 31,000  injured claimants.

Related Links:

• Mafia Solves Nuclear Waste Problem
• Exxon Mobile Court Orders Only Fraction of Damages
• Chevron should pay $27 billion in compensation

• Are You Allowed to Live Free of Toxic Pollution?
• Mercury Found in Every Fish Tested in the US
• Hundreds of Dead Animals Litter NZ Beaches
• Quotes of the Week: On EF, Food, Water, Pollution
• Whale Meat ‘n Blubber Tastier With PFCs

• It’s Not Local, It’s Strictly Global Business!

VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

VOW: Krakatoa [Krakatau]

Krakatoa is a volcanic island in the Sunda Strait located between Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra. Both the volcano and island group share the same name.

Four enormous explosions almost entirely destroyed Krakatoa island on August 27, 1883. The violent explosions were reportedly heard in Perth, Western Australia,  some 3,500 km away. It was heard even on the island of Rodrigues near Mauritius, about 4,800 km away.

The shockwave from the last explosion, which ejected volcanic matter 80 km into the atmosphere, echoed around the planet seven times.

An 1888 lithograph of the 1883 violent explosion of Krakatoa.

The eruption ejected about 21 cubic kilometers of volcanic matter and completely destroyed two-thirds of the Krakatoa island.

The Island Map (Simkin and Fiske, 1983). Image may be subject to copyright.

Anak Krakatau (the Child of Krakatau)  is the only active vent left from Krakatoa. u is  This volcano has built itself slowly from the sea floor since the paroxysmal eruption of 1883.  Anak Krakatau is located between the northern two vents, Danan and Perboewatan, that were destroyed in the 1883 eruption.  For the most part, the eruptions are Vulcanian, slowly building the island with a combination of lava, ash, and pumice.

Krakatoa: Location Map. Source of the original map: USGS

Krakatoa: An early 19th Century image.

Early in the morning of May 20, 1883, the captain of the German warship Elizabeth reported seeing an ~11-km-high cloud of ash and dust rising above the uninhabited island of Krakatau, thus documenting the first eruption from this Indonesian island in at least two centuries. Over the ensuing two months, crews on commercial vessels and sightseers on charted ships would experience similar spectacles, all of which were associated with explosive noises and churning clouds of black to incandescent ash and pumice. From a distance, the largest of these natural fanfares impressed the local inhabitants on the coastal plains of Java and Sumatra, creating a near-festive environment. Little did they realize, however, that these awe-inspiring displays were only a prelude to one of the largest eruptions in historic times. A series of cataclysmic explosions began at mid-day on August 26, and ended on August 27 with a stupendous paroxysmal eruption. On this day, the northern two-thirds of the island collapsed beneath the sea, generating a series of devastating pyroclastic flows and immense tsunamis that ravaged adjacent coastlines. The events that began on August 26 would mark the last 24 hours on earth for over 36,000 people [possibly as many as 120,000,] and the destruction of hundreds of coastal villages and towns. —Geology-/SDSU [Spelling mistakes corrected by FEWW.]

William Ashcroft painting “On the Banks of the River Thames” in London, November 26, 1883 [Exactly three months after Krakatoa's cataclysmic 1883 eruption.]

The Krakatoa eruption affected the climate driving the weather patterns wild for the next 5 years. Average global temperatures fell by about 1.2 °C in the following years, returning to normal only in 1888.

Krakatoa Image by Landsat Pathfinder Project (Dated May 18, 1992)

Anak Krakatau’s most recent eruptive episode began in 1994, with near continuous Strombolian eruptions, punctuated by larger explosions.  In its most recent eruption, which began in April 2008, the volcano released hot gases, rocks, and lava. Scientists monitoring the volcano have warned people to stay out of a 3 km zone around the island. By and large, the eruptions are Vulcanian, helping to slowly build the island with ash, lava and pumice at an average rate of about 60 cm per month.

Fearing an imminent eruption, Volcanological Survey of Indonesia raised Anak’s  eruption alert level to Orange on May 6, 2009.

SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(9 September – 15 September 2009)

New activity/unrest:

• Langila, New Britain (PNG)
• Mayon, Luzon (The Philippines)
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

News From GVP:

• PHIVOLCS reported that 11 earthquakes from Mayon were detected during 14-15 September. On 15 September, three ash explosions produced a brownish plume that rose no more than 700 m above the crater and drifted SW.

• On 11 September, KVERT reported strong explosions from Shiveluch. Based on interpretations of seismic data, ash plumes rose to an altitude greater than 15 km (49,200 ft) a.s.l. The seismic network then detected eight minutes of pyroclastic flows from the lava dome; resulting plumes rose to an altitude of approximately 10 km (32,800 ft) a.s.l. —GVP

Tafu-Maka

A bathymetric map prepared during a NOAA Vents Program November 2008 expedition shows two submarine volcanoes, Tafu (Tongan for “source of fire”) and Maka (Tongan for “rock”). The volcanoes lie along a NE-SW-trending ridge on the southern part of the back-arc NE Lau Spreading Center (NELSC). The November 2008 expedition discovered submarine hydrothermal plumes consistent with very recent (days to weeks?) submarine lava effusion from Maka volcano.  Image courtesy of NOAA Vents Program, 2008. Caption: GVP.

Ongoing Activity:

• Bagana, Bougainville  (PNG)
• Barren Island, Andaman Is
• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Chaitén, Southern Chile
• Dukono, Halmahera
• Fuego, Guatemala
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Pacaya, Guatemala
• Popocatépetl, México
• Rabaul, New Britain
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Santa María, Guatemala
• Slamet, Central Java (Indonesia)
• Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)

HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE
Wednesday, September 16, 2009 8:30 AM HST (Wednesday, September 16, 2009 18:30 UTC)

KILAUEA VOLCANO (CAVW #1302-01-)
19°25’16″ N 155°17’13″ W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

Activity Summary for past 24 hours: The third DI event in a week started yesterday morning and switched to DI inflation overnight. Moderate glow was visible after dark from the Halema`uma`u Overlook vent (summit). Sulfur dioxide emission rates from the Halema`uma`u and east rift zone vents remain elevated. Lava from the TEB vent (east rift zone) flows through tubes to the ocean and feeds surface flows.

Past 24 hours at Kilauea summit:
Glow was visible from the Halema`uma`u Overlook vent overnight. This morning, trade winds are blowing the plume, denser than yesterday morning, to the southwest over the Ka`u Desert. The most recent sulfur dioxide emission rate measurement was 900 tonnes/day on September 11, which is well above the 2003-2007 average of 140 tonnes/day. Very small amounts of ash-sized rock dust waft up from the vent and are deposited nearby on the crater rim.

This Quicktime movie shows two active vents on the floor of the Halema`uma`u cavity. Lava is just below the rim of the two vents, creating frequent spattering which falls around their rims. Within the larger of the two (on the right), lava can be seen vigorously sloshing. For scale, these vents are about 10 yards wide. The first half of the movie is shown in normal mode, with the second half shown in ‘nightshot’ mode.

The summit tiltmeter network recorded the third DI event in a week with deflation just before 8 am yesterday and inflation just after midnight last night. The GPS network, which is less sensitive than the tiltmeter network, recorded less than 2 cm of contraction over the last 3 months with brief periods of extension coinciding with strong DI inflation on September 1-2 and 11-12; they recorded contraction since 9/13.

Seismic tremor levels remain elevated; two weak hybrid earthquakes followed by 15-20 minutes of sustained tremor were recorded starting around 7:30 pm last night. The number of RB2S2BL earthquakes continued to increase slightly but remained below background levels. Six earthquakes were recorded beneath Kilauea – three beneath the summit caldera, two deep quakes below the lower southwest rift zone, and one on south flank faults. —HVO

• Videos and Images are available at: HVO

Related Links:

• Weekly Volcano Watch: 19 March 2009

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• Tonga’s Metis Shoal may be erupting
• Rumble III Volcano “blew its top!”
• Volcanoes
• Earthquakes

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts
• Volcano Watch Weekly: 23 April 2009

• Weekly Volcano Watch: 16 April 2009
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 2 April 2009

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Other Related Links:

• U.S. Volcano Status Map
• Elevated Activity Page
• U.S. Volcano Webcams

Climate Change: For what you’re about to receive…

It’s what you wished for!

Scientists Echo More Hazards of Global Warming You Probably Didn’t Know Existed, or Cared Much

More of the human enhanced geological hazard are being spelled out as scientists scratch hard, going beyond textbooks.

Global Climate Change will trigger violent geological activity, but little is known about the effects. Larger, deadlier quakes? “Orchestral” volcanic eruptions? Giant glacial slides/ landslides? More frequent Jumbo tsunamis? Methane Burps?

Those are just a few of the items on the menu, which you have already ordered, and will have to pay for.

Sit tight and see how you fare on the deadly white-knuckle ride as global warming changes the earth’s crust. No need to fasten your seat belt because it won’t help.

“WHOI glaciologist Sarah Das stands in front of a block of ice that was raised up 6 meters by the sudden drainage of a meltwater lake in Greenland. (Photo by Ian Joughin, UW Polar Science Center)” Image may be subject to copyright.

Global warming may cause more deadly quakes and tsunamis

“Climate change doesn’t just affect the atmosphere and the oceans but the earth’s crust as well. The whole earth is an interactive system,” Professor Bill McGuire of University College London was reported as saying, at the first major conference on the changing climate’s effects on geological hazards.

“In the political community people are almost completely unaware of any geological aspects to climate change.”

“When the ice is lost, the earth’s crust bounces back up again and that triggers earthquakes, which trigger submarine landslides, which cause tsunamis,” said McGuire.

According to the Toba catastrophe theory a supervolcanic event at Lake Toba ( Sumatra, Indonesia) plunged the Earth into a mini-ice-age lasting several thousand years (70,000 to 75,000 years ago). The explosion, classified as “mega-colossal,” ejected about 2,800 km³ of volcanic matter into the atmosphere, the impact of which reduced the world’s human population to about 10,000, possibly a mere 1,000 breeding pairs, creating a bottleneck in human evolution. [The theory was proposed in 1998 by Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.]

In more recent times, about 3,600 years ago, the Minoan eruption of Thera (Santorini), a major catastrophic volcanic eruption (VEI = 7, DRE = 60 km3), which was the second largest volcanic events on Earth in recorded history, destroyed most of the island of Thera, and contributed to the collapse of the Minoan culture. It also caused significant climatic changes in much of the Northern Hemisphere, for example, failure of crops in China.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory researcher Tony Song has warned about the enormous power of  “glacial earthquakes.” Millions of tons of  glacial ice, cracked by hydrofractures caused by the lubricating effect of the meltwater from supraglacial lakes, slide downward from great heights (in West Antarctic the ice sheet is about a mile high) like  massive landslides.

“Our experiments show that glacial earthquakes can generate far more powerful tsunamis than undersea earthquakes with similar magnitude,” said Song.

“Several high-latitude regions, such as Chile, New Zealand and Canadian Newfoundland are particularly at risk.” [Having discovered an additional dozen or so nasty surprises, FEWW issued a travel warning to would be visitors to New Zealand months ago!]

Although ice sheets are disintegrating much more rapidly than previously thought, he noted, glacial earthquake tsunamis were “low-probability but high-risk.” [For now, anyway, but the odds are rapidly changing for the worst.]

Volcanoes can spew vast amounts of ash, sulphur, carbon dioxide and water into the upper atmosphere, reflecting sunlight and sometimes cooling the earth for a couple of years. But too many eruptions, too close together, may have the opposite effect and quicken global warming, said U.S. vulcanologist Peter Ward.

“Prior to man, the most abrupt climate change was initiated by volcanoes, but now man has taken over. Understanding why and how volcanoes did it will help man figure out what to do,” said Ward.

Speakers were careful to point out that many findings still amounted only to hypotheses, but said evidence appeared to be mounting that the world could be in for shocks on a vast scale.

McGuire says man-made CO2 emissions must be stabilized within about the next five years, to avoid a nightmare of which geological hazards are only a small part. What he didn’t say is where he got his 5-year “grace period” from because the tipping point was reached about 3 years ago, according to FEWW “EarthModel.”

“Added to all the rest of the mayhem and chaos, these things would just be the icing on the cake,” he said. “Things would be so bad that the odd tsunami or eruption won’t make much difference.”

Related Links:

• Vanishing Lakes
• Climate Change, Earthquakes, Volcanic Eruptions
• Doctors Talk Climate, Finally

• Volcanoes Killed Off Dinosaurs
• Volcanoes, Santorini Eruption and Crops Failure in China
• Toba the Sleeping Colossus
• Supervolcanoes may awaken
• The Largest Earthquake in the World
• Tambora Volcano produced the largest eruption in recorded history

Doctors Talk Climate, Finally

Alas, they couldn’t break out of the ‘matrix’ that is structured around the U.N.

What did the doctors say?

The world will face a “global health catastrophe” unless governments agree deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as part of  a new U.N. treaty in Copenhagen in December, say 18 of the world’s medical organizations.

“What’s good for the climate is good for health,” said their editorial in the British Medical Journal and The Lancet today.

Florida’s Seminole coal-fired power plant is one of about 400 power generating plants  across the United States that emit GHG. (Photo courtesy of Seminole Electric Co-op)

“There is a real danger that politicians will be indecisive, especially in such turbulent economic times as these,” said a letter signed by leading doctors from 18 medical colleges and medical organizations globally.

They warned: “Should their response be weak, the results for international health could be catastrophic.”

Unless  a solid agreement is reached in Copenhagen by the 190 participating nations to curb GHG emissions, “heatwaves, floods and desertification that would disrupt water supplies and cause malnutrition and disease, especially in poor nations.” A report said.

“Failure to agree radical reductions in emissions spells a global health catastrophe,” said the editorial authors Michael Jay, chair of the Merlin medical relief charity, and Michael Marmot, director of the International Institute for Society and Health, media reported.

“The measures needed to combat climate change coincide with those needed to ensure a healthier population and reduce the burden on health services. A low carbon economy will mean less pollution,” the editorial said.

“A low-carbon diet (especially eating less meat) and more exercise will mean less cancer, obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Opportunity, surely, not cost.”

[How about grounding world's fleets of military and passenger jets, too?]

“While the poorest in the world will be the first affected, none will be spared,” the editorial said. ” As leaders of physicians across many countries, we call on doctors to demand that their politicians listen to the clear facts that have been identified in relation to climate change and act now,” they wrote.

“Even without climate change, the case for clean power, electric cars, saving forests, energy efficiency, and new agriculture technology is strong.

“Climate change makes it unanswerable.” They wrote.

“A low-carbon economy will mean less pollution. A low carbon-diet (especially eating less meat) and more exercise will mean less cancer, obesity, diabetes, and heart disease.”

Copenhagen will host representatives from about 190 nation, December 7-18,  who plan to draw up a comprehensive treaty as a follow-on to the Kyoto Protocol, which was designed to obligate developed nations to cut GHG emissions.

FEWW has no estimate concerning the carbon footprint of the UN Copenhagen extravaganza.

Copenhagen Climate Conference 2009 would probably be as successful as the Kyoto Protocol, possibly worse!

Related Links:

• UN Hypocrisy: Kick the CO2 Habit!
• UNEP Issues Some CO2 Reduction Snakeoil!

• The Deadly Dozen, the Dirty Dozen, the Dozen Dozen
• Stick the Policies, Stop the Climate Change!
• Climate Change Spreads “Deadly Dozen” Diseases

• Stop Unnecessary Air Travel!
• Stop Flying in the Face of the Poor!
• Ich bin eine Coal Girl!

• UN planning to feed the world?
• GEO-4: Another ‘Optimistic’ Report
• Reality Check: Is a Future Possible?
• Only Zero Emissions Would Avert Dangerous Warming

• 286W
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Nuking Earth for Lifestyle
• ‘C’ for the Economy’s Carbon Cycle [Boosted by Bailouts and Stimulus Plan]
  
• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar

Mafia Solves Nuclear Waste Problem

Nuclear Waste Disposal Doesn’t Have to Be So Expensive: Mafia

The enterprising corporate arm of Mafia has found an answer (!) to the age old problem of energy growth: Go Nuclear!

And don’t worry about the astronomical cost of “disposing” of the permanent waste. They will dump it in the ocean for you at premium prices.

Italian authorities have located the wreck of a vessel with 180 barrels of toxic waste on board, which they say was sunk by the mafia, off the south coast of Italy. The sunken ship  is reported to be one of more than 30 scuttled by Cosa Nostra.

Photo: ANSA.it. Image may be subject to copyright.

Italian officials say the 110-meter long sunken vessel, which lay in 500 meters of water in the Tyrrhenian sea,  may contain radioactive waste, a report said.

The ship’s location was revealed by Francesco Fonti, an ex-member of Calabria’s feared ‘Ndrangheta crime group, who confessed to using explosives to sink this vessel and two others.

The ship lay less than 28  km off the coast of Calabria in southwestern Italy, and was filmed by a remote-controlled submarine. A short video is available at:  toxic dump.

Video images show an empty barrel lay on the seabed, which appears to have fallen out of a gaping hole in the sunken vessel’s damaged hull.

“There could be problems of toxins and heavy metals … this is an issue for the whole international community,” Silvestro Greco, head of Calabria’s environment agency, was reported as saying..

Greco said investigators believed there were 32 ships carrying toxic waste sunk by the mafia since the introduction of tighter environmental legislation in the 1980s made illegal waste disposal a lucrative business for crime groups.

“The Mediterranean is 0.7 percent of the world’s seas. If in this tiny portion there are more than 30 (toxic waste) shipwrecks, imagine what there could be elsewhere,” he said.

Related News Links:

• Toxic shipwreck calls for action
• Mafia ‘sank nuclear waste ship’
• Italy finds wreck of toxic waste ship sunk by mafia

Related FEWW Links:

• STOP Killing Our Oceans!
• Back from the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch”
• The Garbage Patch [You Tube Video]
• Algalita Photo Gallery
• Pt. 1 “Plastic in the Ocean” Interview with Capt. Charles Moore [You Tube Video]
• Pt. 2 “Plastic in the Ocean” Interview with Dr. Marcus Eriksen

• WILD FACTS SERIES: Our Oceans Are Dying!

• Southern Ocean already losing ability to absorb CO₂
• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part IV :  Researchers found evidence of corrosive water about 20 miles off the west coast of North America from Canada to Mexico.
• Human carbon emissions make oceans corrosive : ‘Carbon dioxide spewed by human activities has made ocean water so acidic that it is eating away at the shells and skeletons of starfish, coral, clams and other sea creatures …’
• The Eight Steps that Help Kill More of Our Fish : How Your Car’s Exhaust Emissions Helps Create Dead Zones and Kill Our Fish.
• Global warming could starve oceans of oxygen: study : Areas of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans with low amounts of dissolved oxygen have expanded in the past 50 years, apparently in line with rising temperatures.
• The Floating Toxic Garbage Island : A patch of garbage twice as large as the continental United States and dubbed the Great Pacific Garbage Patch floats in the middle of the Pacific Ocean in North Pacific Gyre.
• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part III : Tourism: The Most Destructive Human Activity After Warfare
• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part II : Major Problems: Fertilizer Runoff; Tourism; Coastal Developments [and Ocean Warming due to climate change]
• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part I : Our Oceans Are Now Dying!

• “Climate Engineering” Best Option: Economists
• New Stars Are Born
• Seeking Toxic Asylum
• Naples Garbage Opera – Act II
• Naples Garbage: First Commercial Dividends
• Naples: The Triangle of Death

• Italy: Submerged in Floodwaters, Sinking in Garbage
• Collapsing Cities
• Nessun dorma (None Shall Sleep)
• The $500-a-barrel professors!
• Out of the Italian Mafia Frying Pan, Into the Swiss Mafia Fire

Jupiter’s ‘Protective Role’ Revisited

How Jupiter may be defending Earth against catastrophic collisions

In Jupiter Bombarded

FEWW said:

Jupiter, the “biggest guy at the door,” as if functioning as a major part of the solar system’s “defense labyrinth,” protecting the inner planets, took a massive pounding from an  asteroid or comet, which left a dark bruise the size of Pacific Ocean [and growing.]

Jupiter: Image taken by Hubble Space Telescope in 2006. credit ESA/NASA/Hubble Team

It’s now transpired that Jupiter captured Comet 147P/Kushida-Muramatsu as a “temporary moon” locking the comet in an irregular orbit for about 12 years (between 1949 and 1961).

Jupiter’s Great Red Spot – This Voyager 1 picture of the great red spot shows a white oval with its “wake” of counter-rotating vortices. North is at the top and the distance from top to bottom is about 24,000 km. This enhanced color view emphasizes red and blue at the expense of green. Note the puffy features inside the GRS, and the “reverse-S” spirals inside both the GRS and the oval. The large white feature extending over the northern part of the GRS was observed to revolve about the GRS center with a period of 6 days.
[Voyager 1-98 - P-21431C - June 6, 1979] Image and Caption: NASA

The following is a Press Release issued by the EUROPEAN PLANETARY SCIENCE CONGRESS 2009

JUPITER CAPTURED COMET FOR 12 YEARS IN MID-20TH CENTURY

Comet 147P/Kushida-Muramatsu was captured as a temporary moon of Jupiter in the mid-20th century and remained trapped in an irregular orbit for about twelve years.

There are only a handful of known comets where this phenomenon of temporary satellite capture has occurred and the capture duration in the case of Kushida-Muramatsu, which orbited Jupiter between 1949 and 1961, is the third longest. The discovery will be presented at the European Planetary Science Congress in Potsdam by Dr David Asher on Monday 14 September.

“Family portrait” of the four largest moons of Jupiter

Ganymede: Natural color view of Ganymede from the Galileo spacecraft during its first encounter with the satellite. The images which combine for this color image were taken beginning at Universal Time 8:46:04 UT on June 26, 1996. [The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA manages the mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, DC.]

Europa: This image shows the approximate natural color appearance of trailing hemisphere of Jupiter’s ice-covered satellite, Europa. Europa is about 3,160 kilometers (1,950 miles) in diameter, or about the size of Earth’s moon. This image was taken on September 7, 1996, at a range of 677,000 kilometers (417,900 miles) by the solid state imaging television camera onboard the Galileo spacecraft during its second orbit around Jupiter. The image was processed by Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft-und Raumfahrt e.V., Berlin, Germany.

IO: A full-disk color view of Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io as seen by NASA’s Galileo spacecraft camera is shown in enhanced color to highlight details of the surface, taken by Galileo in late June 1996.

Callisto: This picture of Callisto was taken by Voyager 2 from a distance of 2,318,000 kilometers (1,438,000 miles). Callisto is covered with bright spots which are meteorite impact craters.  Images and caption: NASA.  [Edited by FEWW]

An international team led by Dr Katsuhito Ohtsuka modelled the trajectories of 18 “quasi-Hilda comets”, objects with the potential to go through a temporary satellite capture by Jupiter that results in them either leaving or joining the “Hilda” group of objects in the asteroid belt. Most of the cases of temporary capture were flybys, where the comets did not complete a full orbit. However, Dr Ohtsuka’s team used recent observations tracking Kushida-Muramatsu over nine years to calculate hundreds of possible orbital paths for the comet over the previous century. In all scenarios, Kushida-Muramatsu completed two full revolutions of Jupiter, making it only the fifth captured orbiter to be identified.

Dr Asher said, “Our results demonstrate some of the routes taken by cometary bodies through interplanetary space that can allow them either to enter or to escape situations where they are in orbit around the planet Jupiter.”

Asteroids and comets can sometimes be distorted or fragmented by tidal effects induced by the gravitational field of a capturing planet, or may even impact with the planet. The most famous victim of both these effects was comet D/1993 F2 (Shoemaker-Levy 9), which was torn apart on passing close to Jupiter and whose fragments then collided with that planet in 1994. Previous computational studies have shown that Shoemaker-Levy 9 may well have been a quasi-Hilda comet before its capture by Jupiter.

“Fortunately for us Jupiter, as the most massive planet with the greatest gravity, sucks objects towards it more readily than other planets and we expect to observe large impacts there more often than on Earth. Comet Kushida-Muramatsu has escaped from the giant planet and will avoid the fate of Shoemaker-Levy 9 for the foreseeable future”, said Dr Asher.

The object that impacted with Jupiter this July, causing the new dark spot discovered by Australian amateur astronomer Anthony Wesley, may also have been a member of this class, even if it did not suffer tidal disruption like Shoemaker-Levy.

“Our work has become very topical again with the discovery this July of an expanding debris plume, created by the dust from the colliding object, which is the evident signature of an impact. The results of our study suggest that impacts on Jupiter and temporary satellite capture events may happen more frequently than we previously expected,” said Dr Asher.

NOT so fast! Comet Kushida-Muramatsu’s orbital path around Jupiter (credit: Ohtsuka/Asher)

The team has also confirmed a future moon of Jupiter. Comet 111P/Helin-Roman-Crockett, which has already orbited Jupiter three times between 1967 and 1985, is due to complete six laps of the giant planet between 2068 and 2086.  END.

The ‘Interceptory role’ of Mars may be even more amazing!

Related Links:

• Jupiter Bombarded

El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) -  Recent Evolution

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, the change in equatorial SST

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

1. During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.

2. The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.

In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.

Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.

3. Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 September 2009
El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

For additional information see following links.

Relate Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

Torturing and Killing Defenseless Animals

Our thanks to TEAA for sending the following item:

Cruelty to animals is directly related to infliction of suffering on humans

There’s no justification whatever for killing, torturing  or abusing living beings. There’s no defense against eco-terrorism!

Seal killing cover-up in Picton [New Zealand]

Last updated 08:50 14/09/2009

A dead fur seal, with two iron weights attached to a rope around its neck, has been found floating in Picton harbour.

The seal was first spotted off the west shore last week but eluded Department of Conservation (DOC) staff for several days, Mike Avis of the Sounds area office said.

The seal was eventually spotted bobbing just off the Picton foreshore.

Mr Avis said the seal had been dead about a week and had been chewed by fish, possibly sharks, but there was no way of knowing how it died.  …  —NZPA

Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2861188/Seal-killing-cover-up-in-Picton
© 2009 Fairfax New Zealand Limited

Related Links:

• Every time you fly someone will die!
• If You Are Flying to or Importing Food From New Zealand
• On a return flight from the United States to New Zealand
• To & From New Zealand: Double Act of Eco-Terrorism

• Eco-Terrorism and Dead Rare Sunfish
• Stop New Zealand Committing Eco-Terrorism!
• STOP Killing Our Oceans!
• Eco-Terrorists on Thin Ice

• Hundreds of millions worldwide face disaster
• Best News of the Day for the Environment!
• If You Are Flying to or Importing Food From New Zealand

• None Shall Sleep!
• Eco-Tourism Is an Oxymoron!
• Eco tourism harming New Zealand’s marine wildlife
• Tourist boats destroying dolphin community in New Zealand

• More Eco-Terrorism in Antarctica
• Truth About ‘100% Pure New Zealand’ Advertising Campaign
• Why scuba divers get blamed for the damage they do to coral reefs…
• Kiwis say jets are 10 percent of NZ’s climate impact…

Sea Levels Rose 0.61m in US East Coast

Strange Phenomena Series

Don’t have to wait for all the ice to melt “freak” ACO events could inundate world’s coastal regions at a moment’s notice!

Sea Levels Elevated along Atlantic Coast: NOAA

ELEVATED EAST COAST SEA LEVEL ANOMALY: June – July 2009 . Source: NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 051

NOAA researchers discovered rises of 15 to 61 cm  (6 inches to 2 feet) in the sea levels along the entire Atlantic  Coast.  Having analyzed data from the relevant  tide stations and buoys along the Atlantic Coast, the scientists from the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) discovered that “a weakening of the Florida Current Transport – an oceanic current that feeds into the Gulf Stream – in addition to steady and persistent Northeast winds, contributed to this anomaly.”

In addition to the current and steady winds, elevated water levels in the latter half of June coincided with a perigean-spring tide, an extreme predicted tide when the moon is closest to the Earth during a spring tide. This tidal event added to the observed sea level anomaly, produced minor coastal flooding, and caught the attention of many coastal communities because of the lack of coastal storms during this time that normally cause such anomalies.

“The ocean is dynamic and it’s not uncommon to have anomalies,” said Mike Szabados, CO-OPS director. “What made this event unique was its breadth, intensity, and duration.”

The significant point about the discovery was the geographic extent of this event, the researchers said, which encompassed the entire East Coast. Smaller regions and estuaries along the East Coast often  experience this kind of phenomena during the summer months.

The June–July 2009 sea level anomaly is unique because northeast winds along the coast were not at a multi-year high and the Florida Current Transport was not at its low–two factors that can cause elevated sea levels. However, the coupled effect of these two forces created sea levels that were at the highest levels all along the East Coast.

Rich Edwing, deputy director for the NOAA’s CO-OPS said “the Gulf Stream slowed down,” pushing water toward the coasts, which caused the  sea levels to rise.

“Why did the Gulf Stream slow down? Why did the fall wind pattern appear earlier?” Edwing said. “We don’t have those answers.”

NOAA says further analysis is necessary to fully understand the basic phenomena that caused the event, and will  continue investigating the forces responsible for the anomalies.

[ACO: Atmospheric, Climatic, Oceanic]

Related Links:

• Sea Surface Height Variations
• Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009
• El Niño

Strong Earthquake Strikes Offshore N Venezuela

Magnitude 6.4 Quake Strikes Offshore Aragua, Northern Venezuela

An earthquake measuring 6.4 Mw struck offshore Aragua, northern Venezuela about 100 km west of Caracas, the Venezuelan capital at a depth of 10 km on Saturday, September 12, 2009 at 20:06 UTC, according to USGS/EHP.

NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issue the following Tsunami Information Statement on 09/12/2009 at 4:15PM AST:

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the coasts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico states, and Eastern Canadian provinces. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the earthquake location, magnitude, and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S. Atlantic, Eastern Canadian and Gulf of Mexico coasts.

USGS/EHP had again downgraded their original reading from 7.0 to 6.4Mw.

Venezuelan Interior Minister reported that two people had received major leg injuries, with 12 others suffering less serious injuries as a result of the damage caused by the quake.

Venezuela’s emergency services chief, Luis Diaz Curbelo, reportedly said the quake was felt across the country.

At least seven people were injured and several buildings were damaged in the NW state of Falcon, the worst hit area, he said.

Another report  said the parts of the capital and several other regions were left without electricity.

10-degree Map Centered at 10°N,70°W

Earthquake Location. Source of Original map: USGS

Seismic Hazard Map

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Historic Seismicity

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Earthquake details

• Magnitude: 6.4
• Date-Time:
• Saturday, September 12, 2009 at 20:06:25 UTC [ Saturday, September 12, 2009 at 08:06:25 PM at epicenter]
• Location: 10.757°N, 67.847°W
• Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
• Region:  OFFSHORE ARAGUA, VENEZUELA
• Distances:
  • 35 km (25 miles) NNE of Puerto Cabello, Venezuela
  • 60 km (35 miles) NNE of Valencia, Venezuela
  • 100 km (65 miles) W of CARACAS, Venezuela
  • 2115 km (1310 miles) SE of Miami, Florida
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.4 km (3.4 miles);
• Parameters:  NST=197, Nph=197, Dmin=806.2 km, Rmss=1.12 sec, Gp= 36°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2009llbc

Hoki Cover-up by British McMedia

Why British Corporate Media Kept Mum about NZ Hoki

On July 21, 2009 FEWW wrote Waitrose, a large British supermarket chain, had confirmed that it is refusing to stock New Zealand-caught hoki because bottom trawling is used in New Zealand fisheries.

New Zealand hoki fisheries attain Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) label despite destructive bottom-trawling practices. Photo: NIWA NZ.

Moderators also noted that at least “a dozen other supermarket chains in Europe and North America have also removed New Zealand caught orange roughy from their shelves because it goes against their sustainability policies.”

Bottom trawling is a destructive fishing method that kills deep sea life like corals and sponges and destroys fragile ecosystems. Deep sea coral cultures provide habitat for unique marine wildlife. The corals protect many species from currents and predators, providing feeding, breeding and spawning areas for numerous marine species, as well as nurseries for fledgling fish populations.

The Silence

Interestingly, the British media kept silent about the decision by Waitrose and other supermarkets not to stock NZ-caught hoki. In fact, the Moderators were not at all surprised, following the Daily Mail debacle about life in New Zealand. In How the Brits are Deceived by their Media, our friends in New Zealand aptly busted the “green,” “clean,” and other myths and revealed the blatant lies about New Zealand being a “paradise for British expats,” lies that had been perpetuated by unscrupulous corporate media such as the UK’s “perfidious” Daily Mail.

The Surprise!

Blog noted however that NZ govt had expressed a pleasant surprise. A week later on july 28, 2009, New Zealand ‘Trade and Enterprise” said:

The announcement by Waitrose supermarket that it will no longer be stocking New Zealand hoki for environmental reasons has not been widely reported in the mainstream media in the UK.

But lamented:

Waitrose instituted the ban despite the fish carrying the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) label.

MSC logo. Beware of MSC fake imitations fraudulent claims. Image may be subject to copyright.

Could it be that the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) label is not worth the paper it’s glued on?

We suspected something bigger had prevented British media from “blathering” about NZ hoki. Alas, the Moderators were too distracted by other events…

Enter the McHoki Factor

Have you ever wondered about the filling in McDonald’s Filet-O-Fish buns sold at your local McOutlets? What kind of fish it is, where it lives, how it’s caught, how many of them are left…?

Filet-O-Fish. Image source: Wikipedia. for licensing details click here.

According to NYT:

The answer to the eternal mystery of what makes up a Filet-O-Fish sandwich turns out to involve an ugly creature from the sunless depths of the Pacific, whose bounty, it seems, is not limitless.

The bottom-trawled NZ Hoki, or whiptail, “a bug-eyed specimen found far down in the waters around New Zealand” turns out to be a major export item for the country, NYT’s William Broad says. ” McDonald’s alone at one time used roughly 15 million pounds of it each year.”

Gary Johnson, McDonald’s senior director of global purchasing, said hoki use was down recently to about 11 million pounds annually from roughly 15 million pounds—a drop of about 25 percent. “It could go up if the quota goes up,” he said in an interview. He noted that McDonald’s also used other [bottom-trawled?] whitefish for its Filet-O-Fish sandwiches.

Denny’s, another international fast food chain, was reported as saying that it served hoki only in its New Zealand outlets.

What will McDonald’s do in the future?

Gary Johnson said: “Everything we’ve seen and heard, suggests the fishery is starting to come back.” [REALLY?]

As for the British McMedia, make your own verdict!

Related Links:

• UK’s Waitrose refuses to stock NZ-caught hoki
• Waitrose hoki ban was not widely reported in UK’s Big Brother media [NZ Govt.]
• From Deep Pacific, Ugly and Tasty, With a Catch
• UK’s Waitrose: NO NZ Hoki
• “Perfidious” Daily Mail

VolcanoWatch Weekly [9 September 2009]

VOW: Toba the Sleeping Colossus

Lake Toba, Sumatra, Indonesia – Landsat photo – Source: NASA

Lake Toba is a supervolcano, 100 kilometres long and 30 kilometres wide, and 505 metres (1,666 ft) at its deepest point. Located in the middle of the northern part of the Indonesian island of Sumatra with a surface elevation of about 900 metres (2,953 ft), the lake stretches from 2.88°N 98.52°E  to 2.35°N 99.1°E.  It is the largest volcanic lake in the world. It’s also the site of a supervolcanic eruption that occurred about 74,000 years ago, a massive climate-changing event. The eruption is believed to have had a VEI intensity of 8. This eruption, believed to have been the largest anywhere on Earth in the last 25 million years, may have had catastrophic consequences globally; some anthropologists and archeologists believe that it killed most humans then alive, creating a population bottleneck in Central Eastern Africa and India that affected the genetic inheritance of all humans today. (Source: Wikipedia).

Lake Toba Topography. Source: Andaman Org.

Toba catastrophe theory

The Toba catastrophe theory holds that 70,000 to 75,000 years ago, a supervolcanic event at Lake Toba, on Sumatra, plunged the Earth into a mini-ice-age lasting several thousand years, reducing the world’s human population to 10,000 or even a mere 1,000 breeding pairs, creating a bottleneck in human evolution. The theory was proposed in 1998 by Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The Toba eruption (the Toba event) occurred at what is now Lake Toba about 67,500 to 75,500 years ago. It had an estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index of 8 (described as “mega-colossal”), making it possibly the largest explosive volcanic eruption within the last twenty-five million years. It had a volume 300 cubic km greater than the Island Park Caldera supereruption (2500 cubic km) of 2.1 million years BP.

The total amount of erupted material was estimated at about 2,800 km³ — about 2,000 km³ of ignimbrite that flowed over the ground, and some 800 km³ that fell as ash, with the wind blowing most of it to the west. The pyroclastic flows of the eruption destroyed an area of 20,000 square kilometers, with ash deposits as thick as 600 metres near the main vent [ cf, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens ejected about 1.2 km³;  of material, whilst the largest volcanic eruption in historic times, at Mount Tambora in 1815, emitted the equivalent of 100 km3 of dense rock.] The eruption was also about three times the size of the latest Yellowstone eruption of Lava Creek 630,000 years ago. (Source: Wikipedia).

The eruption of 73,000 years ago left the Sibandung caldera.  Lake Toba is surrounded by two small, active volcanos as well as several updomed areas and hot springs. These features indicate that there is activity below the surface today and that pressure is rising. Samosir island, too, is evidence for upthrust from below. From the record it seems that Toba produces major eruptions every 300-400,000 years. Source: Andaman Org.

Volcanic features in and around Lake Toba:

Grey area: Present-day topographic depression
green area: Updomed areas

Area # 1.  Sibandung caldera: made 73,000 years ago by the Toba YTT event (Young Toba Ash)
Area # 2. Haranggaol caldera: made 500,000 years ago by the Toba MTT event (Middle Toba Ash)
Area # 3.  Sibandung caldera: made 800,000 years ago by the Toba OTT event (Old Toba Ash)

The MTT and OTT events were not as large as the YTT event of 73,000 years ago
but were still major eruptions of at least VEI 7.

V1 Tandukbenua (Sipisopiso) – young dacit-andesite volcano
V2 Pusubukit volcano – young dacit-andesite volcano
D1 Pardepur dacite domes
D2 Tuk-tuk rhyolite dome
HS Hot springs
Source: Andaman Org.

Recent Activity

Large earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of the volcano more recently, notably in 1987.  Other earthquakes have occurred in the area in 1892, 1916, and 1920-1922.

Lake Toba lies near the Great Sumatran fault which runs along the centre of Sumatra called the Sumatra Fracture Zone. The volcanoes of Sumatra and Java are part of the Sunda Arc, a result of the northeasterly movement of the Indo-Australian Plate which is sliding under the eastward-moving Eurasian Plate. The subduction zone in this area is very active: the seabed near the west coast of Sumatra has had several major earthquakes since 1995, including the 9.3 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake [followed by the deadly tsunami] and the 8.7 2005 Sumatra earthquake, the epicenters of which were around 300 km from Toba Lake. (Source: Wikipedia).

SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(26 August-1 September 2009)

New activity/unrest:

• Koryaksky, Eastern Kamchatka9Russia)
• San Cristóbal, Nicaragua

Notes [Source: GVP]

RVO reported that during 28 August-3 September white and gray ash plumes from Rabaul caldera’s Tavurvur cone rose 1.5 km above the crater and produced ashfall in Rabaul town (3-5 km NW) and surrounding areas.

The Washington VAAC reported that on 6 September an explosion from San Cristóbal produced an ash plume that rose to an altitude no higher than 8.5 km (28,000 ft) a.s.l. The plume drifted 75 km W.

Ongoing Activity:

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Chaitén, Southern Chile
• Dukono, Halmahera
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Popocatépetl, México
• Rabaul, New Britain
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)

Related Links:

• U.S. Volcano Status Map
• Elevated Activity Page
• U.S. Volcano Webcams

FEWW Links:

• Volcanoes
• Earthquakes

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts
• Volcano Watch Weekly: 23 April 2009

• Weekly Volcano Watch: 16 April 2009
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 2 April 2009

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

Wondering what happened to the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

As [tiny] Fred begins to fizzles out of its hurricane status in the Atlantic ocean about 1,190 km (740 miles) west of Cape Verde Islands, mot everyone must be thinking whatever happened to the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Fred. GOES Floater Imagery – Still Image – See inset for date and time. Click image to enlarge and update.

Summary of Hurricane Fred Status: Fred is weakening further as it slows down more.
AT 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10, Fred was located at 17.4°N 35.1°W, at max sustained wind speeds of about  140 km/h (85 mph) moving north at a forward speed of 5 km/h
(3 mph) with a min pressure of 735.1 mmHg (80 mb), NHC/NOAA said, expecting it to downgrade to a tropical storm within the next 24 hrs.

For one thing, it’s not over yet, at least not until the “fat lady” strikes. The peak months are August to October.

For another, the strengthening El Niño episode seems to be disrupting storm formation in the Main Hurricane Development Region, the Atlantic basin, AND forcing the storms away from land.

In fact, NOAA’s updated 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a 90% chance of a near-normal or below normal hurricane season.

NOAA recounts two competing climate factors.

1. The persisting “multi-decadal signal” that has been “associated with elevated levels of Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, along with warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.”

2. The El Niño episode, which is  “producing increased wind shear in the Main Hurricane Development Region.”

Based on these mix of climatic factors, NOAA updated prediction for the 2009 hurricane season is

• 50% chance of a near-normal season
• 40% chance of a below normal season
• Only an unlikely 10% chance of an above-normal season

The outlook indicates a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges: 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 60%-110% of the median. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

For an in-depth analysis by NOAA see: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Related Links:

• Hurricanes 2009
• CSU Lowers Hurricane Forecast
• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record
• 2009 Hurricane Season: Storms in Teacup, or Nasty Surprises?