Important news & analysis posted on Fire Earth that could help protect you from harm are blocked by Google, Inc. You may sue Google, if you incur any injury as a result of reliance on information denied.
Caution
All technical information and scientific data released by US Government agencies (e.g., NASA, EPA…) are subject to sudden variation because of political expediency.
This caution also extends to the fidelity of the information provided by UN organizations (e.g., FAO, WHO…).
Point of No Return: Unless global energy consumption is reduced immediately to below 60EJ, mechanisms that are destroying the ecosystems including ozone holes, global heating, extreme climatic events... reach the point of no return, overwhelm the life support systems, render most cities uninhabitable by 2015 or earlier.
They Both Spell Disaster, Occur Because of Faults and Happen Regularly in San Francisco Bay
Earthquakes occur in SFB because of geological faults: San Gregorio fault, San Andreas fault, Mt Diablo fault… and Hayward fault. Oil spills occur there as a result of oil companies faults: Arco’s fault, BP’s fault, Chevron’s fault, ConocoPhillips’s fault, Exxon’s fault… and Shell’s fault!
You’d forgiven for thinking there must be an oil spill and an earthquake in the SFBA each day! Because you’d almost be right.
The oil slick from the Dubai Star, an oil tanker located at Anchorage 9 south of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. Photo: KGO-TV/ABC7 via Mercury News. Image may be subject to copyright.
The latest spill, a blackish filthy brown slick of bunker fuel, covered a 250-meter by 4-km stretch of San Francisco Bay on Friday, caused by a “refueling mishap” between an oil tanker, Dubai Star, and a service barge alongside, the U.S. Coast Guard reported.
The slick has not reached land and is in a narrow band because there is little wind and much of it may burn off amid warm weather, giving clean-up crews the upper hand in containing it, Coast Guard Captain Paul Gugg told reporters at a press conference.
“The weather is very cooperative. We’re all over it.” Gugg said.
Gugg said the scope of the contamination does not compare to the massive spill in 2007 of fuel oil from another tanker in the San Francisco Bay that spread across its shores and killed thousand of birds.
However, Gugg didn’t say how much bunker fuel had spilled into the bay.
The spill comes eight days before the two-year anniversary of the vessel Cosco Busan striking the Bay Bridge in dense fog, ripping open its hull and spilling more than 53,000 gallons of fuel oil that fouled much of the shoreline along the well-known California waterway.
The Busan spill killed more than 2,500 birds and deposited oil on 200 miles of coastline, Pacific Environment was quoted as saying.
Meanwhile,
The unscrupulous oil giant BP has been fined $87 million for failing to remove safety hazards at its massive Texas City refinery, the 3rd largest in the US, where an explosion in 2005 killed 15 workers and injured 180 others. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) cited 270 violations at the oil refinery, officials said.
In 2005, BP was fined $21.3 million and ordered to repair hazards at their refinery, but it didn’t
“Lawyers acting for victims of the disaster suggested that the renewed action could put BP in breach of a plea agreement two years ago in which it pleaded guilty to a single felony and paid $373m to settle a string of criminal charges.” UK’s Guardian reported.
Typhoon Mirinae, the fourth in a month to strike the Philippines, pummels the island of Luzon
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC
Position: 14.0N 119.5E
Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)
FEWW Comment: Mirinae could strengthen into a typhoon [Probability = 0.35] again, before making its next landfall in Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.
Typhoon Mirinae, now weakened to a tropical storm force, struck the main island of Luzon, Philippines early Saturday morning (17:00 UTC Friday), making landfall in the eastern Quezon province, he Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA )reported.
The powerful typhoon “crashed into the Philippine capital Saturday with pounding rain and strong winds, causing a massive power outage, downing trees and bringing fresh floods to areas still partially submerged from a recent deadly storm,” AP reported.
Residents living in Manila Bay look out from their house that was damaged by Typhoon Mirinae in Bacoor town, south of Manila, October 31, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.
“The Philippine network said knee-deep floodwaters were reported in the village of Salapan and brownouts were reported in parts of Luzon, including metro Manila. Power was out in Quezon province, where the typhoon made landfall, as well as parts of Bicol, Pasig City and Rizal province,” UPI reported.
Up to 150,000 residents in low-lying areas were evacuated to shelters before the typhoon arrived, the National Disasters Coordinating Council reported. Some 180 flights from Manila were canceled and many ferries were grounded, with more than 10,000 passengers stranded.
Rains caused by Mirinae have worsened the flood-stricken parts of the capital, Manila and surrounding regions caused by earlier storms, which left nearly 1,000 people dead. Up to a quarter of million people remain homeless, including more than 100,000 crammed into temporary shelters run by the disasters relief agency.
“The government disasters relief agency reported that at least 15 villages and districts in Metro Manila are submerged — some in waist-deep floodwaters,” Xinhua reported.
This natural-color image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:00 p.m. local time October 30 (05:00UTC). The eye of the storm was a large mass of roiling clouds located less than a hundred kilometers northeast of Cataduanes Island in the Philippines.NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, NASA Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC
Position: 14.0N 119.5E
Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
As of November 9, 155 people have died from swine flu and acute respiratory infections, including 11 people on November 8, Ukraine’s Interfax reported the Health Ministry as saying.
Total number of flu and respiratory diseases: 969,247
No of cases hospitalized: 48,972
Patients currently in intensive care: 446
Of the 11 people who died on November 8, three were in Chernivtsi region, two in Lviv, two in Ivano-Frankivsk, two in Rivne, one in Vinnytsia and one in Khmelnytsky regions, Interfax said. “The epidemic threshold for influenza and acute respiratory infections has been exceeded in 13 regions and in Kyiv.” Flu, respiratory infections kill 155 in Ukraine
“Government officials have gone on national television to deny other rumours that rural western Ukraine is in the grip of a deadly unnamed plague.” Globe and Mail
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko wears a protective mask as she visits a hospital in Ivano-Frankivsk. Ukraine has closed schools and banned public meetings for a three-week period after confirming its first death from the H1N1 flu. Photo: Alexander Prokopenko/Reuters. Image may be subject to copyright.
“KIEV, Nov 8 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s leader Viktor Yushchenko on Sunday dismissed the idea a January election should be delayed because of flu fears and appeared to accept there would be no more IMF funds forthcoming until after the vote.” Reuters
Slovakia is closing all but one road border crossing with Ukraine because of Ukraine’s “flu epidemic.” Reuters
UPDATE- 5 NOV 2009
“The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said that as of Wednesday, some 500,000 cases of acute respiratory illness and 86 related deaths had been reported in Ukraine.” —Reuters
A closed meeting has been held in Ivano-Frankivsk, at which participants agreed that epidemic of the so-called “pneumonic plague” is being spread throughout Ukraine. But the problem is its form is unknown, it is ATYPICAL nobody knows how to treat it.
PNEUMONIC PLAGUE has an acute course than other forms, over and is accompanied by a very high mortality rate. The incubation period of primary pneumonic plague rarely exceeds more than 1-4 days. It begins, as a rule, suddenly – with shivering, fever, headache, myalgia, weakness, nausea. The symptoms of pneumonia – cough with phlegm, chest pain, shortness of breath – usually appear on the second day of the disease. Blood spitting, growing respiratory disorders, heart failure, respiratory failure, shock are being observed. In primary pneumonic plague phlegm usually is watery or mucinous, foamy, with blood or visibly bloody.
A secondary pneumonic plague occurs as interstitial pneumonia. Phlegm is scanty and more dense and viscous than in primary pulmonary plague. It is believed that in this regard, patients are less contagious.
As a reminder, yesterday, on October 28 flu epidemic in the Ternopil Region, which had appeared a week ago, mowed down nearly 10,000 of residents. Moreover – unknown virus has already killed seven people. Ministry of Health has confirmed 20 deaths from pneumonia in Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv Regions. By Yulia Makoveeva, MIGnews.com.ua
China’s Ministry of Health reported an outbreak of pneumonic plague in Qinghai Province, China, in August, with 12 confirmed cases, of which at least three died. Up to ten thousand people were placed under quarantine in the town of Ziketan in Qinghai province in northwest China.
For more information on plague, infection control, symptoms and treatment, see
A powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.2 Mw occurred in Ryukyu Islands, Japan, about 280 km (175 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, at a depth of 35 km (21.7 miles), on Friday, October 30, 2009 at 07:03 UTC.
Referring to an earlier forecast, FEWW Moderators believe an additional series of 6 – 7 quakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw could strike Japan region in the coming weeks.
A moderate earthquake measuring up to 5.3 Mw struck near 29.165°N, 130.061°Eclose to the latest event on Sunday, October 25, 2009 at 06:17 UTC at a depth of about 47.5 km (29.5 miles).
10-degree Map Centered at 30°N,130°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.
Earthquake Details:
Reported Magnitude: 6.9 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated by FEWW at 7.2 Mw]
Date-Time:
Friday, October 30, 2009 at 07:03:39 UTC
Friday, October 30, 2009 at 04:03:39 PM at epicenter
Location: 29.154°N, 129.903°E
Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
Region: RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Distances:
280 km (175 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, Japan
340 km (210 miles) SSW of Miyazaki, Kyushu, Japan
400 km (245 miles) NNE of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
1170 km (730 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.5 km (3.4 miles)
Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID: us2009njal
Seismic Hazard Map [USGS]
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
Historic Seismicity [Source: USGS?EHP]
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.
Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 6.0 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated by FEWW at 6.3 Mw]
Date-Time: Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 17:44:31 UTC
[Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 10:14:31 PM at epicenter]
Location: 36.434°N, 70.731°E
Depth: 205.6 km (127.8 miles)
Region: HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN
Distances:
75 km (45 miles) SSE of Feyzabad, Afghanistan
130 km (80 miles) WNW of Chitral, Pakistan
140 km (90 miles) SSW of Khorugh, Tajikistan
255 km (160 miles) NNE of KABUL, Afghanistan
Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 4.5 km (2.8 miles); depth +/- 7 km (4.3 miles)
Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID: us2009niba
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.
After an earlier event in the area, a magnitude 6.4 quake which struck close to today’s epicenter almost exactly a week ago, FEWW forecast:
“Further seismicity in the region should be expected in the coming days and weeks. An earthquake measuring up to 8.4 may occur in the region with a probability of 60 percent.”
Historic Seismicity Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green- (Source: USGS/EHP)
Eight of Colombia’s 15 volcanoes have erupted in the last 100 years, and three of them since 1990: Galeras, Nevado del Huila, and Nevado del Ruiz.
Nevado del Huila emitting ash [October 17, 2009.] As of posting more than a 1,000 tremors have been detected since Huila became restless on October 16, 2009. Photo: INGEOMINAS/Colombian Govt.
Nevado del Huila Emits Ash
Nevado del Huila became active on October 16, 2009. Tremors indicating movement of fluid within the volcano, surface emissions of gas and ash, and other volcanic activity have been reported recently by the Colombian Institute of Geology and Minerals (INGEOMINAS). Towering emissions of volcanic ash have also been reported almost daily. A column of ash reached flight level 11,000 meters (36,000 feet) on October 28, 2009. This natural-color image from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured the plume at 10:15 a.m. Thick gray ash is visible over the summit of Nevado del Huila, with a diffuse plume stretching northwest (towards the upper left corner of the image). According to the newspaper El Liberal, ashfall in the surrounding areas was a nuisance, but not yet a serious risk to health. INGEOMINAS assigned Huila an alert level of Orange, meaning an eruption is probable within days or weeks.NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Robert Simmon.
Volcano of the Week Details
Name: Nevado del Huila
Country: Colombia
Region Name: Colombian Andes
Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
Last Known Eruption: 2009
Summit Elevation: 5,364 m (17,598 feet)
Latitude: 2.93°N
Longitude: 76.03°W
Source: GVP
Huila, the highest active volcano in Colombia, is an elongated, N-S-trending snow-capped stratovolcano, constructed inside an old caldera. The 5364-m-high volcano is seen here from the SW, with the northern peak (La Cuesta) on the left and the lower southern peak on the right flanking Pico Central, the volcano’s high point. Two persistent steam columns rise from the southern peak. Photo by Juan Carlos Diago, 1995 (courtesy of Bernardo Pulgarín, INGEOMINAS, Colombia). Caption: GVP
An explosive eruption ruptured the summit of Nevado del Ruizon November 13, 1985, spewing about 20 million cubic meters of volcanic ash and rocks into the air. Forty-meter thick lahars traveling at velocities of up to 50 kilometers per hour destroyed the town of Armero 74 km away from the explosion crater, killing more than 23,000 people. [Source: USGS]
SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(21 October – 27 October 2009)
PHIVOLCS reported that on 28 October a minor ash explosion from Mayon produced a brownish ash plume that rose 600 m above the crater and drifted NE.
Based on web camera views, INGEOMINAS reported that on 21 October continuous gas emissions rose from Nevado del Huila and pulses of ash emissions produced plumes that drifted E. Observations during an overflight on 23 October revealed that gas-and-ash emissions originated from two locations.
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC
Position: 14.5N 122.7E
Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)
Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.
Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.
Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image.Click image to enlarge and update.
Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo island
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Pampanga
Zambales
Occidental Mindoro
Albay
Burias Island
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC
MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !
The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]
Position: 15.0N 125.2E
Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae was located at near 15.6N, 128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).
Maximum Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 knots)
Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).
Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.
The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?
Click image to animate.
Basic Information
DOB: 2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE: 45 hours / 1.55 days
Minimum Pressure: 955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed: 150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind: 260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind: 260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind: 410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind: 670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled: 1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783 km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index: 2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name: Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 26 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 ~ 1.1ºC
Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.
During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Another dust storm blew across Australia’s Northern Territory and Queensland on October 26, 2009, as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead. This true-color image shows the dust plume traveling eastward. In Northern Territory, the dust passes south of Newcastle Waters. In Queensland, the plume skirts a cluster of fires—roughly marked by red outlines—that send their smoke plumes northward.NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Michon Scott. Edited by FEWW
A transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE), and related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE or “mad cow disease”), scrapie is a fatal, degenerative disease that affects the nervous systems of sheep and goats. Scrapie, like other spongiform encephalopathies, is caused by a prion. So far the deadly disease does not appear to be transmissible to humans, but that could change.
MIRINAE Strengthens to a typhoon force, could develop to a SUPER TYPHOON [P ≥ 65%]
Mirinae has significantly increased in organization and intesity over the past 12 hours.
Typhoon Location as of 00:00 UTC 28-10-2009: 16.2N, 138.5E
Giant Typhoon MIRINAE (23W) could further strengthen to a Super Typhoon (probability of 65%). MTSAT IR Still Image at 00:00UTC on October 28, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.
(MTSAT/NOAA/SSD) Guam IR Color Loop. Click image to enlarge and animate.
Basic Information
DOB: 2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE: 18 (hours) / 0.75 (days)
Minimum Pressure: 965 (hPa)
Maximum Wind Speed: 130 km/h / 70 (knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind: 110 (km) /60 (nm)
Diameter of Storm Wind: 220 (km) /120 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind: 330 (km) / 180 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind: 670 (km) /360 (nm)
Distance traveled: 587 (km)
Average Speed: 32.7 (km/h) / 783 (km/d)
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.3, Longitude 5.2
Wind Flux: 1.9500E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 1.0225E+04
Power Dissipation Index: 5.7488E+05
At 03:00 UTC 27 October 2009, Tropical Storm Mirinae (23W ) was located near 14.3ºN, 144.6ºE, or approximately 75km (40 nm) northeast of Guam, moving West-northwestward (290 degrees) at about 28km (15kt) with max significant wave heights of about 4m (12 feet), JTWC reported.
Max sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 kt)
Maximum wind gusts: 85 km/h (45 kt)
All available models currently forecast 23W to make landfall on the east coast of Luzon near 15.3ºN moving over south central Luzon.
Tropical Storm 23W – MTSAT IR Still Image timed at 01:30UTC, on Oct 27, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.
Storm Twentythree Forecast Track and Wind Distribution Graphic Issued Tue Oct 27 13:28 ChST. NWS/ Tiyan Guam.
Storm Twentythree. Another twin-engined super typhoon in the making? Click image to enlarge and update.
Authorities in Latvia said the 15-m crater near the northern town of Mazsalaca was probably caused by a meteorite. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.
A Hoax?
Geologist Dainis Ozols of North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve says “the object in Mazsalaca, thought to be a meteorite, is merely smoky ember of chemical elements” and that the wide crater formed around it is man-made.
Not a Hoax!
Uldis Nulle, the head of geology department at Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Center believes that a meteorite created the crater, a report said.
To solve the mystery, two geologists and two astronomers have since traveled to the Mazsalaca site to examine the crater.
1. The Loyalty – New Hebrides Arc Collision. Intense volcanic activity should be expected throughout 2009 and beyond along the New Hebrides arc, the Vanatu region (also to the north to include Solomon Island and Santa Cruz Island), possibly continued along the New Hebrides Trench (to include Matthew and Hunter Island). Volcanoes that are located in the above-described area include:
Savo (Solomon Island)
Tinakula (Santa Cruz Island – SW Pacific)
Suretamatai
Motlav
Gaua
Mere Lava
Aoba
Ambrym
Lopevi
Kuwae
North Vate
Traitor’s Head
Yasur
Eastern Gemini Seamount
Matthew Island
Hunter Island
2. Pacific Plate subduction beneath the Okhotsk Plate. Subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Okhotsk Plate continues to create Intense volcanism. Starting 2009, however, a much greaterthan the average number of volcanoes located on the Kuril Islands island arc, Kamchatka volcanic arc and Japan trench to the south may erupt with renewed intensity.
FEWW Moderators forecast new volcanic activity/ unrest at 50 or more volcanoes throughout the rest of 2009.
List of the volcanoes to watch this year [and in 2010] includes:
Barcena (0.8), Socorro (0.8), Curacoa (0.99), Atitlán (0.65), Vesuvius (>0.6), Bazman (0.6), Mount Shasta (>0.5), Kaba (>0.5), Bandai (>0.5), Eastern Gemini Seamount or Mathew Island volcano (0.65), Fonualei (0.65), Mount Rainier (>0.5), Jan Mayen (>0.6), Thule (0.4), Sibayak (>0.5), Volcán Guallatiri (0.65), Taveuni (>0.4), two or more volcanoes on the island of Hokkaido (0.65), E-san (0.7), Oshima-Oshima (0.7), Komaga-take (0.65)
SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for 14-20 October 2009 listed both Kaba and Gaua Volcanoes as erupting:
On 13 October, Vanuatu Geohazards Observatory confirmed that Gaua’s Mount Garat was erupting based on fieldwork done by scientists during 3-7 October. Seismic records showed multiple explosions, and a gas flux measurement of 3,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide was detected on 3 October. The Alert Level was raised to 2 (on a scale of 0-5).
And
On 20 October, CVGHM reported that seismic activity from Kaba increased in August and remained elevated in September and October. Inflation was also detected. When weather permitted, diffuse white plumes were seen rising 25-50 m above the crater rim and drifting E. Based on the deformation and increased seismicity, CVGHN raised the Alert Level to 2 (on a scale of 1-4).
SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(14 October – 20 October 2009)
Tao-Rusyr Caldera, Onekotan Island, Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
Latitude: 49.35°N 49°21′0″N
Longitude: 154.70°E 154°42′0″E The huge Tao-Rusyr caldera on southern Onekotan Island is one of the most spectacular volcanoes of the Kuril Islands off the southern tip of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. The 7.5-km-wide caldera was formed about 7500 years ago during a catastrophic volcanic eruption, one of the largest Holocene eruptions in the Kuril Islands. Today, the basaltic-to-andesitic ancient Tao-Rusyr Caldera is filled by the deep blue waters of Kal’tsevoe Lake, whose surface is 400 m above sea level.
A large symmetrical post-caldera cone, 1325-m-high andesitic Krenitzyn Peak, forms a 4-km wide island that towers high above the caldera rim and fills the NW portion of the caldera lake. A 350-m-wide, 100-m-deep crater truncates the peak and a large lateral crater is located on the upper NE side.
The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite acquired this true-color image of southern Onekotan on June 10, 2009. In this late-spring shot, snow or ice lingers on the land, forming white streaks on a brown-and-green land surface. In the northwest quadrant of the caldera is Krenitzyn Peak, which rises to a height of 1,325 meters (4,347 feet).
Like the other Kuril Islands, Onekotan lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire. The Kuril Island volcanoes are fueled by magma generated by the subduction of the Pacific Plate under the Eurasian Plate, which takes place along a deep trench about 200 kilometers (120 miles) to the islands’ east. The only historical eruption at Krenitzyn Peak occurred in 1952, a week after a magnitude 9.0 earthquake along the subduction fault.
NASA Earth Observatory image created by Robert Simmon, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 team. Caption by Michon Scott and Rebecca Lindsey. [Additional information from GVP. Edited by FEWW]
A large symmetrical post-caldera cone, 1325-m-high Krenitzyn Peak, forms a 4-km wide island that towers above the rim of 7.5-km-wide Tao-Rusyr caldera. A 350-m-wide crater caps the peak, and a large shallow lateral crater (left center) is located on the upper NE flank. The small dark mass along the eastern shoreline (right-center) is a lava dome that was emplaced in 1952 during the only historical eruption of the volcano. Kal’tsevoe lake fills a caldera that was formed about 7500 years ago during one of the largest Holocene eruptions in the Kuril Islands. Photo by Oleg Volynets (Institute of Volcanology, Petropavlovsk). Caption: GVP.
Powerful Quake Measuring up to 7.3 Magnitude Strikes Banda Sea
A powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.3 Mw struck Banda Sea about 40 km WNW of Serua volcano and 65 km south of Manuk volcano, on Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 14:41 UTC.
The quake occurred at 6.161°S, 130.346°E, some 230 km NNW of Saumlaki, Tanimbar Islands, Indonesia, at a depth of about 140 km. It was followed by a moderate quake measuring up to 5.3 Mw, which struck at 6.749°S, 131.601°E, on Sunday, October 25, 2009 at 00:35:06 UTC.
On February 21, 1938, a large quake measuring M 8.5 struck about 185 km northeast of Saturday’s quake at a depth of 25km.
FEWW Forecast:
Based on an analysis of seismic activity in the region, FEWW Moderators believe a large earthquake measuring up to M 8.6 could strike Banda Sea in the next 3 – 6 months. Additional events measuring 6.0 to 7.6 Mw could also be expected in the region, anytime.
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Tsunami Warning:
This earthquake was located too deep inside the earth to generate a destructive tsunami in the Indian ocean, NOAA PTWC said.
Earthquake Details
Magnitude: [7.3 Mw - estimated by FEWW]
Date-Time:
Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 14:40:44 UTC
Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 11:40:44 PM at epicenter
Location: 6.161°S, 130.346°E
Depth: 138.5 km (86.1 miles)
Region: BANDA SEA
Distances:
230 km (145 miles) NNW of Saumlaki, Tanimbar Islands, Indonesia
365 km (225 miles) SE of Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia
700 km (435 miles) N of DARWIN, Northern Territory, Australia
2610 km (1620 miles) E of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 6.6 km (4.1 miles); depth +/- 9.2 km (5.7 miles)
Source:USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID: us2009ndan
Population Exposure:
Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. A magnitude 6.6 earthquake 360 km Northwest of this one struck Indonesia on March 12, 1983 (UTC), with estimated population exposures of 126,000 at intensity VII and 204,000 at intensity VI, with no reported fatalities. On June 17, 1987 (UTC), a magnitude 7.1 earthquake 82 km Northeast of this one struck Indonesia, with estimated population exposures of 1,000 at intensity VI and 82,000 at intensity V, with no reported fatalities. Source: USGS/EHP
Historic Seismicity
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
