Archive for October, 2009
Posted by feww on October 9, 2009
VOW: Ambrym
Destructive acid rain caused by eruption
According to press reports, an eruption from Benbow Crater occurred on 10 February [1979.] Gases from the eruption caused acid rainfall on the SW portion of Ambrym Island, destroying most vegetation within 24 hours, contaminating water supplies, and burning some inhabitants. Jean-Luc Saos, Director of Mineral Resources for the New Hebrides government, reported a high concentration of HCl and sulfur compounds in the volcanic gases. Although heavy ashfalls have occurred in the area in the past, this is the first report of acid rains. More …
View of the Marum cone at Ambrym looking SW, 7 June 2007. Incandescence from the active lava lakes can be seen reflected in the clouds (left). Courtesy of Steven Clegg.
Lava lake inside Mbwelesu crater within Marum cone at Ambrym, 7 June 2007. Courtesy of Steven Clegg.
A hazy layer of vog—volcanic fog—overlies Malekula and a few other islands of the Vanuatu archipelago in this natural-color satellite image. The source of the vog is Ambrym, a volcano in the southeast (lower right) corner of this scene. The haze extends over the Coral Sea several hundred kilometers to the northwest. Ambrym emits sulfur dioxide—the gas responsible for the formation of vog— intermittently. (Kilauea Volcano has recently affected the residents of Hawaii with similar vog emissions.) The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this natural-color image on October 6, 2009. [Large earthquake measuring up to 8.2 Mw struck Vanuatu region on October 7, 2009 at 22:03 UTC. FEWW] NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Rapid Response Team provides twice-daily images of this region. Caption by Robert Simmon.
Ash plume from Ambrym Volcano, Vanuatu October 4, 2004, 23:00 UTC. Source: NASA/MODIS Rapid Response System.
View into the Mbwelesu crater on the Marum cone at Ambrym, captured 7 September 2008. Lava can be seen through two gaps in the crusted-over lava lake (enlarged insets). Courtesy of Arnold Binas.
Ambrym, a large basaltic volcano with a 12-km-wide caldera, is one of the most active volcanoes of the New Hebrides arc. A thick, almost exclusively pyroclastic sequence, initially dacitic, then basaltic, overlies lava flows of a pre-caldera shield volcano. The caldera was formed during a major plinian eruption with dacitic pyroclastic flows about 1900 years ago. Post-caldera eruptions, primarily from Marum and Benbow cones, have partially filled the caldera floor and produced lava flows that ponded on the caldera floor or overflowed through gaps in the caldera rim. Post-caldera eruptions have also formed a series of scoria cones and maars along a fissure system oriented ENE-WSW. Eruptions have apparently occurred almost yearly during historical time from cones within the caldera or from flank vents. However, from 1850 to 1950, reporting was mostly limited to extra-caldera eruptions that would have affected local populations. Caption: GVP
Ambtym
Country: Vanuatu
Subregion Name: Vanuatu
Volcano Number: 0507-04=
Volcano Type: Pyroclastic shield
Volcano Status: Historical
Last Known Eruption: 2009
Summit Elevation: 1334 m 4,377 feet
Latitude: 16.25°S 16°15’0″S
Longitude: 168.12°E 168°7’0″E
SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(30 September – 6 October 2009)
New activity/Unrest:
News From GVP:
On 29 September, people living in Chaitén town, 10 km SW of Chaitén’s Domo Nuevo 1 (Phase I) and Domo Nuevo 2 (Phase II) lava-dome complex, noticed that the eruption column was larger. Scientists conducted an overflight and saw a third lava dome (Phase III) in the SW area of the complex, which had filled up a depression left by a collapse on 19 February.
According to news articles from 2 October, increased seismicity at Gaua was detected during the previous two weeks. Villagers living nearby reported ashfall and sulfur odors.
An explosive eruption from Galeras on 30 September prompted INGEOMINAS to raise the Alert Level. An ash plume rose to an approximate altitude of 12.3 km (40,400 ft) a.s.l. and drifted E, then N. —GVP
Ongoing Activity:
Related Links:
FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast
Other Related Links:
Recent Posts on Chaitén:
Posted in California volcanoes, ecuador, FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast, Hawaii, island of Java, Kīlauea, Langila, Mexico, New Britain, Popocatépetl, Rabaul, Reventador, Sangay, volcanic hazard, volcanism, volcano services, volcanoes | Tagged: acid rain, Ambrym, Banks Islands, Central Kamchatka, Chaiten, Chuginadak Island, Cleveland, colombia, Eastern Kamchatka, Galeras, Gaua, Karymsky, Kliuchevskoi, Kyushu, Montserrat, Sakura-jima, Shiveluch, Soufrière Hills, southern Chile | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 8, 2009
More Powerful Quakes Strike Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands
FEWW Moderators believe Earth may be undergoing significant geophysical disturbances with cataclysmic consequences for humans
[The disturbances and disasters that spawn from them are enhanced by human activity.]
Powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.3Mw strikes Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, the fifth shock in less than 11 hrs
Since Wednesday, October 07, 2009 at 22:03 UTC, about 11 hours from time of posting, a total of 19 shocks have struck Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Islands Regions. The Mainshock which measured up to 8.2 Mw struck Vanuatu region, followed by 18 additional shocks in the two neighboring regions.
The most powerful of these shocks measured up to 8.1, 7.6 , 7.0 and 7.3 Mw. [Source of initial data: USGS/EHP; maximum quake magnitudes estimated by FEWW.]
10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,165°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Related Links:
Recent Human Enhanced Disasters Asia-Pacific
See also:
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, large earthquakes, significant geophysical disturbances | Tagged: Fifth Powerful Quake, lata quake, Powerful Quake Strikes Vanuatu, santa cruz islands quake, solomom islands quake, vanuatu quake | 14 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 8, 2009
Typhoon Melor Causes Widespread Destruction and Disruptions in Japan
Melor was the first typhoon in two years to make landfall in Japan, striking in Aichi prefecture, southwest of Tokyo, on the main island of Honshu, killing 2 people and injuring more than 30.
A man points to a wall torn down by high winds from the third floor of a house in Tsuchiura City, Ibaraki Prefecture north of Tokyo October 8, 2009. Typhoon Melor barrelled into Japan’s main island on Thursday, disrupting flights and trains, closing some factories and tearing roofs off houses, but damage was much less than had been feared. REUTERS/Kyodo. Image may be subject to copyright.
It caused widespread damage through strong winds, with gusts of up to 200km/h, and heavy rain including flooding roads, cutting off power and phone lines, destroying traffic signals, uprooting trees, and tearing roofs from building and knocking over trucks on the flooded roads.
Numerous Flight bullet train and commuter train services were canceled, stranding tens of thousands of commuters in the morning rush hours.
Melor forced the world’s largest car-maker, Toyota, to shut its factories in central Honshu as a precautionary measure.
At least 100,000 homes were left without electricity in Gifu, Mie Kanagawa prefectures, and parts of Tokyo Metropolitan.
The authorities issued various warnings against mudslides and risk of landslides throughout Honshu.
Recent Typhoon Damage in SE ASIA
- Typhoon Tokage pummeled Western Japan in October 2004, killing up to 100 people.
- Typhoon Etau, avoiding a direct hit in Japan, caused flash floods and large landslides that killed up to 30 people in August, 2009.
- Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan also in August, causing extensive landslides that swept entire villages, killing as many as 1,000 people.
- Tropical Cyclone Ketsana left a trail of devastation across Southeast Asia, killing hundreds of people, mostly in the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia.
- Typhoon Parma left a swath of destruction in its wake killing at least 16 people in the northern Philippines and flooding dozens of villages.
BREAKING NEWS: Two new weather systems are racing west across the Pacific ocean heading towards the Philippines.
Related Links:
Posted in New Typhoons, Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ketsana, Typhoon Etau, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Tokage | Tagged: Aichi prefecture, Gifu typhoon damage, Kanagawa prefecture, Melor hit Japan, Mie typhoon damage, Toyota Motors, Typhoon Melor | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on October 8, 2009
Earthquake Measuring up to 7.1Mw Strikes Celebes Sea
Powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.1 Mw Struck Celebes Sea, SE of Jolo, Sulu Archipelago, Philippines, on Wednesday, October 07, 2009 at 21:41 UTC at a depth of about 580km.
The event followed another powerful earthquake that struck Moro Gulf (Mindanao, Philippines), on Sunday, October 04, 2009.
On September 18, 2009, after a 5.5 Mw quakes struck south of Mindanao, FEWW forecast additional, more powerful, earthquakes for the region.
See: Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 + for FEWW Forecast.
10-degree Map Centered at 5°N,125°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Earthquake Details:
- Magnitude: 7.1 best estimate by FEWW (downgraded by USGS/EHP to M 6.7)
- Date-Time:
- Wednesday, October 07, 2009 at 21:41:14 UTC
- Thursday, October 08, 2009 at 05:41:14 AM at epicenter
- Location: 4.043°N, 122.584°E
- Depth: 582.8 km (362.2 miles)
- Region: CELEBES SEA
- Distances:
- 280 km (175 miles) SE of Jolo, Sulu Archipelago, Philippines
- 320 km (200 miles) S of Zamboanga, Mindanao, Philippines
- 1,185 km (730 miles) S of MANILA, Philippines
- 2,085 km (1300 miles) ENE of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7 km (4.3 miles); depth +/- 10 km (6.2 miles)
- Parameters: NST= 61, Nph= 64, Dmin=470.9 km, Rmss=0.83 sec, Gp= 40°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009mlcb
Related Links:
Recent Human Enhanced Disasters Asia-Pacific
See also:
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, feww earthquake forecast, Pacific Ring of Fire | Tagged: Celebes Sea quake, Jolo quake, jolo volcano, MINDANAO, Mindanao quake, Moro Gulf quake, Philippines, Philippines quake, Sulu Archipelago, Zamboanga | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 8, 2009
Large Earthquakes Measuring Up to 8.2 Mw Strike Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands
Large earthquake measuring up to 8.2 Mw struck Vanuatu region, south of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, on Wednesday, October 7, 2009 at 22:03 UTC immediately followed by another shock measuring up to 8.1 Mw, and at least seven aftershocks, with the largest two measuring up to 7.6 Mw and 6.3 Mw respectively.
-
FEWW Moderators believe many more massive aftershocks could occur in the region.
-
Megaquakes should also be expected in this and other regions.
10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,165°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Earthquake Details
- Magnitude: 8.2 as estimated by FEWW [downgraded by USGS/EHP to M7.8]
- Date-Time:
- Wednesday, October 07, 2009 at 22:03:15 UTC
- Thursday, October 08, 2009 at 09:03:15 AM at epicenter
- Location: 13.052°S, 166.187°E
- Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
- Region: VANUATU
- Distances:
- 260 km (160 miles) S of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Isl.
- 295 km (180 miles) NNW of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
- 785 km (490 miles) ESE of HONIARA, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
- 2100 km (1310 miles) NE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.6 km (4.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
- Parameters NST=169, Nph=169, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.32 sec, Gp= 50°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009mlcf
Tsunami Warning
NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center said “a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.”
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI had issued a tsunami watch which was later canceled with the following evaluation:
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII. THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR HAWAII IS CANCELED.
HOWEVER, SOME COASTAL AREAS IN HAWAII COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL NON-DESTRUCTIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS LASTING UP TO SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED TIME SUCH EFFECTS MIGHT BEGIN IS 0650 PM HST WED 07 OCT 2009
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
FEWW Forecast the seismic events
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Ewa Beach, feww earthquake forecast, santa cruz islands quake, santa cruz quake, tsunami warning, vanuatu earthquake, vanuatu quake | Tagged: Earthquakes, Espiritu Santo, large earthquakes, Luganville quake, Pacific Ring of Fire, prf quakes, South Pacific earthquakes | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 7, 2009
Image of the Day: Soufriere Hills undergoes three vigorous ‘ash venting’ episodes
Soufriere Hills Volcano has remained at an increased activity level, after undergoing three vigorous ‘ash venting’ events, with the third event lasting 10 minutes, at 10:00am local time on October 5, 2009. Photo: Montserrat Volcano Observatory. Image may be subject to copyright.
MVO reported a small swarm of VT earthquakes, followed by “a period of tremor associated with vigorous ash venting” that resulted in large ash plumes drifting WNW over the island and out to sea. “Only a very light dusting of ash fell in Old Towne and Olveston as the plumes moved to the south of the inhabited areas.”
MVO observed no explosive activity or pyroclastic flows associated with the ash venting, which ceased at about 12:00am local time. “Two rockfall signals followed the vigorous ash venting,” followed by continual ash venting, however, no further seismicity occurred.
After 10 months of relative quiet, Soufriere Hills volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat blasted ash into the sky in early October 2009. This natural-color satellite image shows a plume of ash extending westward from Soufriere Hills on October 6, 2009, a day after eruptive activity resumed on October 5th. A pilot reported ash extending 280 kilometers (170 miles) at an elevation of approximately 3,600 meters (12,000 feet). In 1995, a series of major eruptions forced the evacuation of the Montserrat’s former capital city, Plymouth. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Rapid Response Team provides twice-daily images of this region. Caption by Robert Simmon. [Edited by FEWW]
Related Links:
FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast
Other Related Links:
Posted in Caribbean islands, island of Montserrat, Montserrat, Plymouth, stratovolcano, volcanic activity, volcanic unrest, volcanism | Tagged: ash plumes, Old Towne, Olveston, Soufriere Hills Volcano, vigorous ash venting episodes, volcano-tectonic tremors, VT earthquakes | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 7, 2009
Typhoon Melor Drenches the Windswept Land of Rising Sun
Wind gusts of up to 60km/h have already been reported in Japan’s Kinki region, about 675km (420 miles) from the center of Typhoon Melor.
Lets hope the overdue large quake which FEWW forecast for the Tokyo Bay area won’t occur right now, making the typhoon’s impression any deeper.
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT RGB Image. Date and Time as Inset. To enlarge and update, click on image.
Near Real-Time Animation
For additional images and animations, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.
Typhoon Melor Stats as of 00:50 UTC, 7 October 2009
Intensity: Strong
Center of probability circle: N35°05′(35.1°), E136°20′(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement: NNE 45km/h (23kt)
Central pressure: 960hPa (720.1mmHg)
Maximum wind speed near the center: 40m/s (75kt= 144km/h)
Maximum wind gust speed: 55m/s (105kt = 198km/h)
Radius of probability circle: 160km (85NM)
Storm warning area Wide: 300km (160NM)
Source: JMA
[Conversions by FEWW]
00:00 UTC, Oct 7, 2009
Typhoon Melor 3-day forecast track. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright.
[Valid as of posting] Typhoon Warning and Advisory regions. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright.
For the Latest Warnings and Advisories Click Here!
Related Links:
Posted in Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery, Melor in Japan, Typhoon Melor animation, Typhoon Melor image loops, Typhoon Melor Okinawa, Typhoon Melor satellite images, Typhoon Warnings and Advisories | Tagged: forecast path of melor, forecast track of melor, Melor 3-day forecast track, Melor Amami, Melor Kyushu, Melor Latest Image, Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery, Okinawa, Typhoon Melor Japan, Typhoon melor Kinki, Typhoon Melor Stats | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 6, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 5 Oct 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Highlights
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.
The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño conditions, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: El Niño, ENSO, Equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, Sub-Surface Temperature Departures, Tropical Pacific, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 6, 2009
Awesome Power and Complexity of Super Typhoon Melor
Melor’s high thunderstorm cloud temperatures are colder than -53 degrees Celsius—signs of a very strong storm
Super Typhoon Melor in the Western Pacific Ocean captured by the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite in the early morning hours of October 5, 2009. Melor intensified to Super Typhoon strength and became a category 5 typhoon (with maximum sustained winds near 161 mph) on the Saffir Simpson scale. Credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response Team.
Melor’s Sub-Zero Thunderstorm Cloud
Aqua’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured Melor’s high thunderstorm cloud temperatures (in purple) that were colder than minus 63 Fahrenheit (-53 degrees Celsius). This image from October 4 at 12:29 EDT clearly shows Melor’s eye. Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen
Near Real-Time Animation:
For additional images and animations, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.
Typhoon Melor and storm Parma’s forecast track issued by JMA at 08:45 UTC, 6 October 2009. Image may be subject to copyright.
Related Links:
Posted in AIRS image, Melor Forecast, Melor forecast path, Melor forecast track, Melor's track, Path of melor, thunderstorm cloud temperatures, Typhoon Melor | Tagged: deluge in Philippines, Japan landfall, storm Parma, Super Typhoon Melor, Western Pacific Ocean | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 6, 2009
Recommended by EDRO
Plume of Dust Plague Blinds Eastern Washington
Dust Plagues: An Increasingly Significant Threat as a Collapse Mechanism
Dust Storm in Eastern Washington [NASA Earth Observatory]
Visibility dropped to zero in parts of eastern Washington on October 4, 2009, as a large dust storm blew through. This image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite shortly after noon (Pacific Daylight Time). According to local news, the storm brought strong winds gusting to 43 miles per hour in places that propelled the dust across the southeast corner of the state. After numerous multi-vehicle accidents, sections of Interstate 90 near the town of Moses Lake and several local roads had to be closed for several hours.
The dust storm persisted for several hours and was still visible when Aqua MODIS flew over the region at 2:00 p.m. local time. The Terra MODIS image shown here is available in multiple resolutions from the MODIS Rapid Response System.
A thick, rippling plume of dust runs northeast to southwest through the center of the image. Dust stretches as far south as the cities of Pasco and Kennewick, which sit on opposite banks of the Columbia River. In the north, the dust seems to rise primarily from the pale golden squares of fields farmed using dryland agriculture, a common practice in arid eastern Washington. The dryland fields are larger and less colorful than the bright green and gold fields of irrigated agriculture near the Columbia and Snake Rivers in the center of the image.
Dryland farmers rely entirely on rainfall to sustain their crops, and as a result, do many things to preserve moisture in the soil. Some of these practices—leaving a field fallow after harvest to allow water to build in the soil for a year or covering the field with dry soil to prevent underlying moisture from evaporating—make dryland agriculture very prone to dust storms. These fields are likely either fallow or newly planted, probably with winter wheat, a common dryland crop in eastern Washington.
NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey and Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW]
Related Links:
Posted in Columbia River, dryland fields, Dust Plague, dust storm, dust to dust, Eastern Washington, Kennewick, Moses Lake, multi-vehicle accidents, Pasco | Tagged: Collapsing Cities, dryland farming, First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities, Iraq Ecocide, Mesopotamian Dust Bowl, Riyadh City, Sandstorm in Saudi Desert, strong winds, The Dust Bowl, topsoil | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 5, 2009
Fire Chases 4,000 From Their Homes
Sheep fire forced thousands of residents to evacuate the mountaintop town of Wrightwood about 130km (80 miles) east of Los Angeles, according to state officials.
Having blackened 7,500 acres since Saturday, the blaze reached the outskirts of Wrightwood, a scenic resort town of 4,000 in the San Gabriel Mountains.
The blazed has destroyed at least 5 structures, but officials said they they could most probably save the town. The cause of the fire is still unknown/ undisclosed.
The fire containment, as of posting, was 20%.
Photo: Smoke rises Saturday evening over the San Bernardino Mountains. Credit: Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times. Image may be subject to copyright.
Details of Sheep Fire:
- Incident Type: Wildfire
- Cause: Under Investigation
- Date of Origin: Saturday October 3, 2009 02:11 PM PCT
- Location: Between Lytle Creek & Lone Pine Canyons
Current Situation:
- Total Personnel: 936
- Size: 7,500 acres
- Percent Contained: 20%
- Fuels Involved: Chaparral and timber
- Fire Behavior: Extreme fire behavior with rapid rates of spread, fire is fuel, topography, and wind driven
- Significant Events: Numerous helitankers and fixed wing air tankers dropped water and retardant on the fire yesterday and back fires were set to protect homes at the eastern edge of Wrightwood. The fire has not crossed Hwy 138 or Hwy 2 at this time.
Outlook:
- Planned Actions: Crews are constructing direct fireline and numerous engine strike teams are in place for structure protection for the eastern portions of Wrightwood.
- Growth Potential: Extreme
- Terrain Difficulty: Extreme
Remarks:
- The Forest Service is in unified command with San Bernardino County Fire and the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department. Resources assigned to the fire are:
- 24 handcrews,
- 80 engines,
- 4 dozers,
- 7 water tenders,
- 6 helicopters and
- 9 airtankers (including the DC-10 and the Martin Mars).
Evacuations:
- All residents of Wrightwood are under a mandatory evacuation. Mandatory evacuations remain for residents in Swarthout and Lone Pine Canyons, Hwy 138 between I-15 and Hess Road, and residents on the east side of Lytle Creek Road including Applewhite Campground and Mountain Lakes Resort. Road Closures: Hwy 2, Hwy 138 between I-15 and Hwy 2, Lone Pine Canyon Road, Lytle Creek Road. Lytle Creek road is open to residents only.
Current Weather
- Wind Conditions: 19 mph SW
- Temperature: 45 degrees F
- Humidity: 45%
- Source: InciWeb
Incident Overview [from InciWeb]
The Sheep Fire started near Sheep Canyon Road near Lytle Creek at about 2:11 pm on Saturday October 3, 2009. It burned northeast to Swarthout Canyon Road, then northwest up Lone Pine Canyon. It is currently burning near the top of Lone Pine Canyon near Wrightwood, CA. It has not crossed Hwy 138 at this time. The fire is about 1/4 mile from Hwy 2 and homes in the area. Firefighters are cautiously optimistic at this time about keeping the fire from burning into Wrightwood. Numerous helitankers and fixed wing air tankers dropped water and retardant on the fire yesterday and back fires were set to protect homes at the eastern edge of Wrightwood. Engines are also continuing to do structure protection and hand crews are constructing fire line.
Mandatory evacuations are still in place for all Wrightwood, Swarthout Canyon, Lone Pine Canyon, and areas along Hwy 138 between I-15 and Hess Road. Mandatory evacuations also remain in place for the following areas in Lytle Creek: Applewhite Campground, Applewhite Picnic Area, and areas east of Lytle Creek Road up to and including Mountain Lakes RV Park. Evacuation Centers are located at Eisenhower High School in Rialto and at Victorville Fairgrounds. Small animals can be taken to the Devore Animal Shelter. Large and small animals may be taken to the Victorville Fairgrounds.
Related Links:
Posted in airtankers, Applewhite Campground, fire containment, Lone Pine Canyons, Sheep Fire and Silence of the Lamb, Swarthout, Victorville Fairgrounds | Tagged: LA fires, Lone Pine Canyons, Lytle Creek, San Bernardino Mountains, San Gabriel Mountains, Sheep fire, SoCal Fires, Wrightwood fire | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 5, 2009
Tropical Storm Grace is Getting Stronger as it Heads Towards Southern Ireland
TS Grace is now slightly stronger, heading rapidly NE over the NE Atlantic in the Direction of Southern Ireland.
Tropical Storm Grace – EUMETSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame – Date and Time as Inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. Source: NOAA/NHC/NWS
Grace Wind Speed Probabilities. Still Frame. Click on image to update and enlarge. Source: NOAA/NHC/NWS
Details of Grace
- Location: At 09:00 UTC center of TS Grace was 43.0 N, 18.0 W about 940km NE of the Azores.
- Direction: Grace is moving at about 44 KM/HR, and is forecast to continue this motion until making a gradual turn to NNE Monday night and Tuesday, as it slows down.
- Max Sustained winds: 110 km/h with higher gusts, but expected to weaken in the next 24 hours.
- Tropical Storm Force winds: 85km from the center
- Estimated Min Central Pressure: 742mm Hg (989 Mb)
- Source: NHC
Related Links:
Posted in Atlantic hurricane season, FEWW New Hurricane Scale, grace forecast trajectory, Grace Wind Speed Probabilities, NE Atlantic, Tropical Storm Force winds | Tagged: Grace forecast path, path of TS Grace, Southern Ireland, Tropical Storm Grace, TS Grace, TS Grace forecast track | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 5, 2009
Typhoon Melor may be heading toward Kanto region, Japan
Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, typhoon Melor will only briefly enter the Philippines territory late Monday (local time), exiting mostly uneventfully by early Tuesday.
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Unenhanced Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. The very slow moving storm Parma to the WNW of Melor loitering in NW Luzon and southern tip of Taiwan region could be dragged back to Luzon, as Melor heads NNW towards Japan. Note Melor’s well-defined eye and its near-perfect symmetry.
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT RGB Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. [Remember, Earth is NOT flat. 
]
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Infra Red Short Wave - Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image.
For additional images and animation, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.
Melor is not expected to impact Philippines directly, but it is controlling the movement of typhoon Parma, which is moving west very slowly as it passes over northern Luzon.
The two typhoons are interacting, somewhat pinwheeling ["Fujiwhara Effect,"] with Melor packing more powerful winds being the driver, as Parma weakens. In fact, it is possible that Melor could drag Parma back on to Luzon, at least temporarily.
Melor spared Guam and Saipan over the weekend, with NWS in Guam reporting gusts of up to 38 mph and little rain as Melor moved north away from the island Saturday night.
The following information is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
TYPHOON 0918 (Melor) Issued at 00:45 UTC, 5 October 2009
Forecast for 05:00 UTC, 5 October 2009
- Intensity: Very Intense
- Center position: N18°30′(18.5°), E136°20′(136.3°)
- Direction and speed of movement: WNW 25km/h(14kt)
- Central pressure: 910hPa
- Maximum wind speed near the center: 198 km/h
- Maximum wind gust speed : 288 km/h
- Area of 50kt (93km/h) winds or more : 190km (100NM)
- Area of 30kt (56km/h) winds or more: NE560km, SW390km(210NM)
JMA forecast track for Typhoon Melor. Image may be subject to copyright.
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Posted in melor impact Guam, Melor Impact Saipan, near-perfect symmetry, Parma weakens, Taiwan rainfall, well-defined eye | Tagged: Fujiwhara Effect, interacting typhoons, Melor forecast path, pinwheeling, Supercharged Typhoons, tropical storms, Typhoon Melor, typhoon melor forecast track, Typhoon Parma | 4 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 4, 2009
Strong Earthquake Measuring up to 6.4Mw Strikes East Coast of Taiwan
Strong earthquake measuring up to 6.4 Mw struck off the east coast of Taiwan at a depth of 17.5 km on Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36 UTC.
As the quake occurred, Typhoon Parma was reported heading towards the southeastern coast of Taiwan still reeling from the aftermath of typhoon Morakot that struck the island in August, killing more than 1000 people.
10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,120°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
USGS/EHP has downgraded this quake to a magnitude 6.1 shock.
Earthquake Details:
- Magnitude: 6.1 [possibly measuring up to 6.4Mw - Moderator]
- Date-Time:
- Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36:05 UTC
- Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 01:36:05 AM at epicenter
- Location 23.635°N, 121.565°E
- Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
- Region TAIWAN
- Distances
- 35 km (25 miles) S of Hua-lien, Taiwan
- 110 km (65 miles) ESE of T’ai-chung, Taiwan
- 110 km (70 miles) NNE of T’ai-tung, Taiwan
- 160 km (100 miles) S of T’AI-PEI, Taiwan
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles); depth +/- 5 km (3.1 miles)
- Parameters NST= 97, Nph= 97, Dmin=38.4 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009mhcf
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Posted in Climate Change, human enhanced catastrophes, T'ai-tung quake, T'AI-PEI, Typhoon Morakot | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Hua-lien quake, quake strikes taiwan, T'ai-chung quake, T'ai-tung earthquake, Taiwan quake, Typhoon Parma | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 4, 2009
Strong quake measuring possibly as large as 6.9 strikes Mindanao, Philippines
Strong earthquake measuring as large as 6.9 Mw struck the seabed in Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippine, at a depth of about 630km, on Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 10:58 UTC.
On September 18, 2009, after a 5.5 Mw quakes struck south of Mindanao, FEWW forecast additional, more powerful earthquakes for the region.
See: Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 + for FEWW Forecast.
10-degree Map Centered at 5°N,125°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
USGS/EHP reported the quake as measuring 6.6Mw.
Earthquake Details
- Magnitude: 6.6 [Possibly as large as 6.9Mw - Moderator]
- Date-Time:
- Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 10:58:01 UTC
- Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 06:58:01 PM at epicenter
- Location: 6.721°N, 123.480°E
- Depth: 630.5 km (391.8 miles)
- Region: MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
- Distances:
- 100 km (65 miles) WSW of Cotabato, Mindanao, Philippines
- 125 km (75 miles) S of Pagadian, Mindanao, Philippines
- 155 km (95 miles) E of Zamboanga, Mindanao, Philippines
- 915 km (570 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.3 km (3.3 miles); depth +/- 7.4 km (4.6 miles)
- Parameters: NST=124, Nph=124, Dmin=235.2 km, Rmss=0.89 sec, Gp= 32°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009mia8
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist, USGS/EHP said.
Related Links:
Recent Human Enhanced Disasters Asia-Pacific
See also:
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, feww earthquake forecast, Moro Gulf quake, Pagadian earthquake, Zamboanga quake | Tagged: Cotabato quake, earthquake, Mindanao earthquake, Philippine Plate, Philippines earthquake | 18 Comments »
