Taiwan Earthquake Warning

Large Earthquake Could Strike Taiwan Region

Based on the results of Fire-Earth’s EarthModel simulations, Moderators forecast a large earthquake in the Taiwan Region.

Related Links:

• Earthquakes [Links Page]
• Magnitude 6.3 quake strikes Taiwan region
• 4th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region
• 5th Strong Quake Strikes Japan Region
• 8th Strong Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan

Chile Earthquake and Tsunami Update 1 (28 Feb)

Death Toll reaches 309 and Rising

8.8 Megaquake destroys houses, buildings, hospitals, bridges, roads and other structures

The Chile M8.8 quake released about 180 times more energy than the recent Haiti quake (estimated at 7.3Mw). Up to 70 medium to powerful aftershocks measuring M5.0 to M7.0 have been reported by USGS and other EQ monitoring centers

Chilean government has declared 6 regions as “zones of catastrophe,” but has made no formal request for international aid as yet.

Power and telephone lines are down throughout most of Chile making the flow of information extremely difficult [Other countries are advised to revise their communication systems]

• Water lines are cut off in most parts of the country.
• Many deaths are reported in Maule near the epicenter, as well as in the regions of  Araucania,  Biobio,  O’Higgins,  Santiago and Valparaiso, some of the places where powerful aftershocks occurred.
• In Santiago, capital of Chile, at least a dozen large building have collapse killing more than 15 people (the death toll could rise).
• About 200 people were caught inside an apartment block which collapsed  in the major city of Concepcion, the closest to the epicenter, and officials said they had no idea if anyone escaped, according to news reports.
• A chemical plant near Santiago has caught fire forcing the authorities to evacuate several thousand people from the neighborhood.
• Santiago International airport has been damaged and will be closed for at least a week.

Freeze frame from a local TV report shows  a building in Concepcion that caught fire as a result of the earthquake.

The international airport in Santiago, the Chilean capital, located about 320km (200 miles) north of the epicenter, was  closed as the megaquake caused damage to some roads and building facades.

A strong M6.3 aftershock in Salta, Argentina killed at least 2 people last night, officials said.

Rescue workers search for victims and survivors after an apartment complex collapsed during an earthquake in Concepcion some 100 km (62 miles) south of the epicenter, February 27, 2010.  Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra. Image may be subject to copyright. For more image images, click links in the Related Images section below.

The megaquake was the fifth-largest seismic event since 1900.   Chile was also the scene of the largest earthquake in the world  which measured 9.5Mw, which killed  1,655 people and injure 3,000 others, leaving about 2,000,000 homeless.

The tsunami generated by the 1960 quake  caused 61 deaths and $75 million damage in Hawaii [most of the damage occurred at Hilo, with the runup height reaching 10.6 m.] Several hundred other people in Japan and the Philippines were also killed or reported missing as a result of the destructive tsunami.

Collapsed highway Near Santiago.  Vehicles driving along a highway that collapsed during the megaquake were thrown on the road below on Saturday. Photo Credit:  Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notie.

Tsunami

Japan is bracing for a possible tsunami wave of 3m (10ft) or higher that could strike the Pacific coast of Hokkaido at about 13:00JST  (04:00 UTC).

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Tsunami Forecast Map.  Image may be subject to copyright.

• Major Tsunami is marked in RED: Tsunami height is expected to be 3 meters or higher.
• Tsunami is marked in YELLOW: Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters.
• Tsunami Advisory: Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters.

Japanese government has ordered thousands of residents on coastal areas to evacuate to higher grounds.

A tsunami generated by the megaquake overwhelmed the port of Talcahuano, a major port in southern Chile, causing substantial damage to the harbor and the boats, and flooding streets.

A huge wave swept the Juan Fernandez islands, President Michelle Bachelet was reported as saying. The wave reportedly 7, with at least a dozen more islanders reported missing, according to a local officials.

Hawaii recorded tsunami surges of up to 12 inches about half an hour later than oceanographers had forecast, according to an official with the Hawaii County Civil Defense. Some officials had predicted that the waves would be as high as 4.8m (14 feet) despite the freely available tsunami ADVISORY reports.

In French Polynesia, a 1.8m (6 ft ) high wave swept ashore. As of posting,  there was no reports of casualties or damage. However,  casualties and damage will most probably occur.

A 1.7m was observed at Valparaiso, west of Santiago, and reports of more damage are expected.

In Australia, a tsunami wave measuring 50cm (1.6 feet) was reported off Norfolk Island, about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles ) northeast of Sydney.

On Chatham Islands, NZ officials reported a 2-meter high wave striking the coast. About a thousand people in the coastal cities of Gisborne and Napier in the  North Island were reportedly evacuated from low-lying areas.

In Tonga, there were reports of a 2.2-meter (6.6 feet) high wave sweeping an unnamed small northern island, an official said.

In the Philippines the officials said they were expecting a 1-meter high wave later this afternoon local time.

Socioeconomic Aftershocks

President Michelle Bachelet has said that two million Chileans have been affected by the Saturday’s Megaquake. Her estimate is realistic.

Thousands of people in Argentina may have also been affected.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W (USGS)

Latest EQ Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Fire-Earth Moderators believe that the geophysical prognosis doesn’t bode well for Chile, and a number of other countries, especially those  on the PRF,  for at least the next 3  years.

On January 2, Fire-Earth forecast 2010 Likely the Most Disastrous Year on Record. See also 2010 Disaster Calender- Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters.

Related Links:

• Destructive Tsunami Generated by Chile Quake
• Chile 8.8 Megaquake Strikes Offshore Maule
• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Recent Earthquakes ≥ 6.0 Mw
• Powerful Quake Strikes Chile [November 13, 2009]
• The Largest Earthquake

Related Images:

• Reuters photo gallery
• More images by AP and others
• AP videos

Destructive Tsunami Generated by Chile Quake

A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 005
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1045UTC 27 FEB 2010

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS, EXCEPT ALASKA, BRITISH COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. [SEE below for other bulletins with those areas included ]

Chile Tsunami preliminary forecast model energy map (WCATWC/NOAA). Click image to enlarge.

Source: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Click image to enlarge.

* A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT *

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / ANTARCTICA / PANAMA / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / PITCAIRN / HONDURAS / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / FR. POLYNESIA / MEXICO / COOK ISLANDS / KIRIBATI / KERMADEC IS / NIUE / NEW ZEALAND / TONGA / AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA / JARVIS IS. / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU / FIJI / AUSTRALIA / HAWAII / PALMYRA IS. / TUVALU / VANUATU / HOWLAND-BAKER / NEW CALEDONIA / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. / NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / MIDWAY IS. / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / CHUUK / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / INDONESIA / N. MARIANAS / GUAM / YAP / BELAU / JAPAN / PHILIPPINES / CHINESE TAIPEI

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 0634Z 27 FEB 2010
COORDINATES – 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
DEPTH – 55 KM
LOCATION – NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE – 8.8

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0906Z 0.27M / 0.9FT 72MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1007Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 44MIN
DART LIMA 32412 18.0S 86.4W 0941Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 36MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN

LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.

FOR ALL AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
——————————– ———— ————
CHILE TALCAHUANO 36.7S 73.1W 0729Z 27 FEB
VALPARAISO 33.0S 71.6W 0739Z 27 FEB
COQUIMBO 29.9S 71.3W 0801Z 27 FEB
CORRAL 39.8S 73.5W 0810Z 27 FEB
CALDERA 27.1S 70.8W 0821Z 27 FEB
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0844Z 27 FEB
IQUIQUE 20.2S 70.1W 0911Z 27 FEB
ARICA 18.5S 70.3W 0929Z 27 FEB
GOLFO DE PENAS 47.1S 74.9W 0934Z 27 FEB
PUERTO MONTT 41.5S 73.0W 1052Z 27 FEB
EASTER IS. 27.1S 109.4W 1205Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ARENAS 53.2S 70.9W 1213Z 27 FEB
PUERTO WILLIAMS 54.8S 68.2W 1404Z 27 FEB
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 72.0W 0936Z 27 FEB
SAN JUAN 15.3S 75.2W 0952Z 27 FEB
LA PUNTA 12.1S 77.2W 1045Z 27 FEB
PIMENTAL 6.9S 80.0W 1114Z 27 FEB
TALARA 4.6S 81.5W 1127Z 27 FEB
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 78.8W 1132Z 27 FEB
ECUADOR LA LIBERTAD 2.2S 81.2W 1202Z 27 FEB
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 79.8W 1234Z 27 FEB
BALTRA IS. 0.5S 90.3W 1313Z 27 FEB
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 78.9W 1253Z 27 FEB
BAHIA SOLANO 6.3N 77.4W 1327Z 27 FEB
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 77.2W 1340Z 27 FEB
ANTARCTICA THURSTON IS. 72.0S 100.0W 1312Z 27 FEB
CAPE ADARE 71.0S 170.0E 1650Z 27 FEB
PANAMA PUERTO PINA 7.4N 78.1W 1331Z 27 FEB
PUNTA MALA 7.5N 79.9W 1334Z 27 FEB
PUNTA BURICA 8.0N 82.8W 1340Z 27 FEB
BALBOA HTS. 9.0N 79.6W 1457Z 27 FEB
COSTA RICA CABO MATAPALO 8.4N 83.3W 1344Z 27 FEB
PUERTO QUEPOS 9.4N 84.2W 1417Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN ELENA 10.9N 86.0W 1452Z 27 FEB
NICARAGUA SAN JUAN DL SUR 11.2N 85.9W 1452Z 27 FEB
PUERTO SANDINO 12.2N 86.8W 1512Z 27 FEB
CORINTO 12.5N 87.2W 1520Z 27 FEB
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN IS. 25.1S 130.1W 1455Z 27 FEB
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 87.6W 1520Z 27 FEB
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 89.8W 1531Z 27 FEB
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 91.2W 1539Z 27 FEB
FR. POLYNESIA RIKITEA 23.1S 135.0W 1542Z 27 FEB
HIVA OA 10.0S 139.0W 1723Z 27 FEB
PAPEETE 17.5S 149.6W 1748Z 27 FEB
MEXICO PUERTO MADERO 14.8N 92.5W 1552Z 27 FEB
ACAPULCO 16.9N 99.9W 1615Z 27 FEB
MANZANILLO 19.1N 104.3W 1709Z 27 FEB
SOCORRO 18.8N 111.0W 1719Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN LUCAS 22.8N 110.0W 1749Z 27 FEB
MAZATLAN 23.2N 106.4W 1753Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ABREOJOS 26.7N 113.6W 1856Z 27 FEB
ENSENADA 31.8N 116.8W 2016Z 27 FEB
COOK ISLANDS RAROTONGA 21.2S 159.8W 1814Z 27 FEB
PENRYN IS. 8.9S 157.8W 1925Z 27 FEB
PUKAPUKA IS. 10.8S 165.9W 1950Z 27 FEB
KIRIBATI FLINT IS. 11.4S 151.8W 1836Z 27 FEB
MALDEN IS. 3.9S 154.9W 1934Z 27 FEB
CHRISTMAS IS. 2.0N 157.5W 2028Z 27 FEB
KANTON IS. 2.8S 171.7W 2112Z 27 FEB
TARAWA IS. 1.5N 173.0E 2258Z 27 FEB
KERMADEC IS RAOUL IS. 29.2S 177.9W 1912Z 27 FEB
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1918Z 27 FEB
NEW ZEALAND EAST CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 1918Z 27 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 1922Z 27 FEB
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 1952Z 27 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 1954Z 27 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 1955Z 27 FEB
MILFORD SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 2005Z 27 FEB
NORTH CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 2010Z 27 FEB
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 2030Z 27 FEB
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2040Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 2056Z 27 FEB
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2127Z 27 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 2129Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 2140Z 27 FEB
NEW PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 2219Z 27 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1940Z 27 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1951Z 27 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 2006Z 27 FEB
JARVIS IS. JARVIS IS. 0.4S 160.1W 2026Z 27 FEB
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 2028Z 27 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU IS. 9.2S 171.8W 2030Z 27 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 2104Z 27 FEB
AUSTRALIA HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 2105Z 27 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 2146Z 27 FEB
BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 2310Z 27 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0101Z 28 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0159Z 28 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0251Z 28 FEB
HAWAII HILO 19.7N 155.1W 2119Z 27 FEB
HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 2152Z 27 FEB
NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 2158Z 27 FEB
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA IS. 6.3N 162.4W 2124Z 27 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI IS. 7.9S 178.5E 2125Z 27 FEB
VANUATU ANATOM IS. 20.2S 169.9E 2137Z 27 FEB
ESPERITU SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 2235Z 27 FEB
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND IS. 0.6N 176.6W 2154Z 27 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 2218Z 27 FEB
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON IS. 16.7N 169.5W 2245Z 27 FEB
SOLOMON IS. KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 2321Z 27 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0004Z 28 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0004Z 28 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0017Z 28 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0020Z 28 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 2331Z 27 FEB
MARSHALL IS. MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 2339Z 27 FEB
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0013Z 28 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY IS. 28.2N 177.4W 0022Z 28 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE IS. 5.5N 163.0E 0026Z 28 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0036Z 28 FEB
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0038Z 28 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
PORT MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0123Z 28 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0128Z 28 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0135Z 28 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0154Z 28 FEB
MANUS IS. 2.0S 147.5E 0214Z 28 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0237Z 28 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0258Z 28 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI IS. 7.0N 158.2E 0111Z 28 FEB
WAKE IS. WAKE IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0112Z 28 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK IS. 7.4N 151.8E 0213Z 28 FEB
RUSSIA MEDNNY IS 54.7N 167.4E 0236Z 28 FEB
UST KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0302Z 28 FEB
PETROPAVLOVSK K 53.2N 159.6E 0333Z 28 FEB
URUP IS 46.1N 150.5E 0354Z 28 FEB
SEVERO KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0410Z 28 FEB
MARCUS IS. MARCUS IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0248Z 28 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0302Z 28 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0345Z 28 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0405Z 28 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0433Z 28 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0452Z 28 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0505Z 28 FEB
GEME 4.6N 126.8E 0512Z 28 FEB
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0303Z 28 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0311Z 28 FEB
YAP YAP IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0352Z 28 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0413Z 28 FEB
JAPAN KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0435Z 28 FEB
KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0453Z 28 FEB
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0509Z 28 FEB
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0557Z 28 FEB
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0610Z 28 FEB
PHILIPPINES DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 0527Z 28 FEB
PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0559Z 28 FEB
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 0604Z 28 FEB
CHINESE TAIPEI HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0626Z 28 FEB
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0626Z 28 FEB
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 0654Z 28 FEB
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0655Z 28 FEB

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

WEPA41 PAAQ 271403
TSUWCA

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 8
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
552 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON – WASHINGTON – BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER TO KODIAK ALASKA…

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM KODIAK ALASKA TO ATTU ALASKA…

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD IMPACT THE ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PERSONS IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

THIS MESSAGE IS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE DATA… OBSERVED TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES… HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND FORECAST MODELS.

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES

LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
———————— —– —— ——- ———–
74MIN TALCAHUANO C 36.7S 73.1W 0657UTC 1.84M/6.1FT
40MIN SAN FELIX CH 26.3S 80.1W 0832UTC 0.81M/2.7FT
57MIN CALDERA CHIL 27.1S 70.8W 0746UTC 0.52M/1.7FT
47MIN COQUIMBO CHI 29.9S 71.3W 0902UTC 1.27M/4.2FT
78MIN IQUIQUE CHIL 20.2S 70.2W 0851UTC 0.30M/1.0FT
57MIN ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0956UTC 0.46M/1.5FT
84MIN ANCUD CHILE 41.9S 74.3W 0943UTC 0.34M/1.1FT
30MIN CORRAL CHILE 39.9S 73.4W 1012UTC 1.54M/5.1FT
56MIN CALLAO LA PUN 12.1S 77.2W 1029UTC 0.66M/2.2FT
52MIN BALTRA ECUAD 0.4S 90.3W 1251UTC 0.35M/1.2FT

TIME – TIME OF MEASUREMENT
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE – 8.8
TIME – 2134 AKST FEB 26 2010
2234 PST FEB 26 2010
0634 UTC FEB 27 2010
LOCATION – 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
- NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
DEPTH – 19 MILES/31 KM

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII WILL ISSUE MESSAGES FOR HAWAII AND OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC OUTSIDE THE STATES AND PROVINCES PREVIOUSLY LISTED.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE WATER IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS… BOATS… AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 60 MINUTES OR SOONER IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

PZZ650-655-673-750-775-565-670-530-535-545-560-455-540-450-
CAZ039>043-087-034-035-530-006-506-508-509-529-002-505-001-
271522-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER
552 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

$$

PZZ356-255-310-350-210-250-110-130>135-150-153-156-170-PKZ310-
031>036-041-042-011>013-021-022-043-051-052-053-120-121-125>129-
130-140-141-ORZ022-002-021-001-WAZ001-021-503-506>511-514>517-
AKZ023-024-026>029-018>022-025-017-131-135-121-125-145-271522-
/O.EXA.PAAQ.TS.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER TO KODIAK ALASKA
552 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON – WASHINGTON – BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER TO KODIAK ALASKA…

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

Z = UTC

Related Links:

• Chile 8.8 Megaquake Strikes Offshore Maule

Chile 8.8 Megaquake Strikes Offshore Maule

Large Earthquake Measuring 8.8Mw Strike Off the Coast of Central Chile

The Chilean Megaquake with nearly 1 exajoule of energy (about 240 megaton, or 16,000 times the size of Hiroshima A-bomb) has caused much destruction

The massive quake struck about 100 km (60 miles) NNW of Chillan, Chile, at a depth of about 35km on February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC, USGS/EHP reported.

The mainshock was followed by at least 11 medium to powerful aftershocks, as of posting, the largest of which was a magnitude 7.0 shock.

Fatalities/Damage:

According to a local report at least 50 people have been killed, but more deaths are highly probable as the mega earthquake unleashed massive energy. Many buildings have been destroyed. The power lines are  down and communication links between the epicenter and Chilean capital Santiago are affected.

Tsunami Warning:

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has issued a tsunami warning for Chile and Peru, and a tsunami watch for Ecuador, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W

Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude: 8.8
• Date-Time:
  • Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC
  • Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 03:34:14 AM at epicenter
• Location: 35.846°S, 72.719°W
• Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
• Region: OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
• Distances:
  • 100 km (60 miles) NNW of Chillan, Chile
  • 105 km (65 miles) WSW of Talca, Chile
  • 115 km (70 miles) NNE of Concepcion, Chile
  • 325 km (200 miles) SW of SANTIAGO, Chile
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID:  us2010tfan

Political Map of Chile. Click to enlarge.

Tectonic Summary

This earthquake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates. The two plates are converging at a rate of 80 mm per year. The earthquake occurred as thrust-faulting on the interface between the two plates, with the Nazca plate moving down and landward below the South American plate. Coastal Chile has a history of very large earthquakes. Since 1973, there have been 13 events of magnitude 7.0 or greater. The February 27 shock originated about 230 km north of the source region of the magnitude 9.5 earthquake of May, 1960 – the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. This great earthquake killed 1,655 people in southern Chile and unleashed a tsunami that crossed the Pacific, killing 61 people in Hawaii, Japan, and the Philippines. Approximately 870 km to the north of the February 27 earthquake is the source region of the magnitude 8.5 earthquake of November, 1922. This great quake significantly impacted central Chile, killing several hundred people and causing severe property damage. The 1922 quake generated a 9-meter local tsunami that inundated the Chile coast near the town of Coquimbo; the tsunami also crossed the Pacific, washing away boats in Hilo harbor, Hawaii. The magnitude 8.8 earthquake of February 27, 2010 ruptured the portion of the South American subduction zone separating these two massive historical earthquakes. A large vigorous aftershock sequence can be expected from this earthquake. (Source: USGS)

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W – UPDATE

Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Historic Seismicity (USGS/EHP)

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Seismic Hazard Map

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Population Exposure Maps (USGS)

USGS Population Exposure MAP. Click image to enlarge. Click here for PDF version.

USGS Population ShakeMAP. Click image to enlarge.

Other Events:

Meanwhile, GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin reported a magnitude 5.8 earthquake in San Juan Province, Argentina, about 600 km NNE of the Chile quake:

Region: San Juan Province, Argentina
Time: 2010-02-27 06:51:19.4 UTC
Magnitude: 5.8
Epicenter: 68.82°W 31.46°S
Depth: 64 km
Status: manually revised

Fire-Earth Earthquake Forecast:  Up to 4 more megaquakes could occur globally in 2010 with probabilities of 0.8 (78%) descending to 0.5 (48%).

[Note: The frequency of occurrence of earthquakes measuring 8.0 Mw or greater is about 1 event per year.]

Related Links:

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Recent Earthquakes ≥ 6.0 Mw
• Powerful Quake Strikes Chile [November 13, 2009]
• The Largest Earthquake

State of Calif: The Ten Internet Commandments

‘The Menace of Fcebook, Twitter’

State of California Effectively Bans Facebook, Twitter from employee Internet access list

State directive says, although agencies and departments are encouraged to  use Social Media technologies, and they have done so allegedly with  some success, there is a measure of risk to address and mitigate.

California State has therefore provided the following Ten Commandments to assist in risk mitigation.

Schwarzenegger uses Multimedia to advance his political agenda (!) Image is a freeze-frame from an AP video. Image may be subject to copyright.

Office of the State Chief Information Officer
Social Media Standard - SIMM 66B – February 2010

USER [State Employee] REQUIREMENTS
1. Users shall connect to, and exchange information with, only those Social Media web sites that have been authorized by agency management in accordance with the requirements within this and other agency and State policies.

2. Users shall minimize their use of “other than government” sections of the Social Media web sites.

3. Users shall not post or release proprietary, confidential, sensitive, personally identifiable information (PII), or other state government Intellectual Property on Social Media web sites.

4. Users who connect to Social Media web sites through State information assets, who speak officially on behalf of the state agency or the State, or who may be perceived as speaking on behalf of an agency or the State, are subject to all agency and State requirements addressing prohibited or inappropriate behavior in the workplace, including acceptable use policies, user agreements, sexual harassment policies, etc.

5. Users shall not speak in Social Media web sites or other on-line forums on behalf of an agency, unless specifically authorized by the agency head or the agency’s Public Information Office. Users may not speak on behalf of the State unless specifically authorized by the Governor.

6. Users who are authorized to speak on behalf of the agency or State shall identify themselves by: 1) Full Name; 2) Title; 3) Agency; and 4) Contact Information, when posting or exchanging information on Social Media forums, and shall address issues only within the scope of their specific authorization.

7. Users who are not authorized to speak on behalf of the agency or State shall clarify that the information is being presented on their own behalf and that it does not represent the position of the State or an agency.

8. Users shall not utilize tools or techniques to spoof, masquerade, or assume any identity or credentials except for legitimate law enforcement purposes, or for other legitimate State purposes as defined in agency policy.

9. Users shall avoid mixing their professional information with their personal information.

10. Users shall not use their work password on Social Media web sites.

Recommended Viewing: Examples of how the Governator and state legislators use Internet/ multimedia for their work:

Schwarzenegger twitpics

http://twitpic.com/kujml

http://twitpic.com/150z22

http://vidly.com/abv1?twitvid

Twitter is a particularly effective medium forSchwarzenegger’s one-liners: “I’ll be back!” “Do you feel lucky ” “Not this time!”

While Facebook was described by a reader as “the bleeding edge of human sanity and narcotic-induced nightmare!”

3rd coldest winter on record: NWS

Image of the Day:

Winter storms pummel New York, U.S. Northeast

New York: Frozen Ghost Town, but New Yorkers may soon wish the snow hadn’t gone away!

Large scale climatic oscillations and wild, wild weather may soon become the global norm.

February 26, 2010: Winter Storm Hits New York City

A wave breaks over an occupied car as people attempt to tow it to safety Friday in Saco, Maine. The driver left the car as the tide continued to rise, flooding local streets. Credit: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

More About the Latest Record-Breaking Winter Storm:

• This month was the 4th coldest February on record, NWS said
  

• It pummeled New York and much of the U.S. Northeast,  depositing about 60cm (2 feet) of snow in NYC.
• Schools were closed in New York City, Philadelphia and other cities in the Northeast.
• Businesses were forced to close down.
• City’s transportation systems were shut down.
• The National Weather Service said more than 50cm (20 inches) of snow had fallen so far, making the storm the third heaviest on record. The record snow for New York was set in February 2006 when more than 68cm (~ 27 inches) of the fluffy stuff covered NYC.
• As of Friday, a new all time snow record was set for the month of February with the latest storm raising the month’s total to 91.5cm (36 inches).

• The storm started on Thursday and could last through Saturday with another 10-20cm of additional  snow forecast for NYC.
  It was the third storm to strike the U.S. Northeast in four weeks.
• About one million homes and businesses across the region experienced blackouts on Thursday and 75 percent were still without 24 hours later, Associated press reported.
• Strong winds, gusting up to 100 km per hour (60 mph) were recorded in eastern Long Island, the National Weather Service said.
• In Philadelphia, winds gusted managed only 80 km per hour (50 mph) prompting the city to declare its fourth snow emergency of the winter, local reports said.
• A man was killed in Central Park, NYC, on Thursday after  he was hit by a tree limb that broke off under the weight of the snow.
• Up to 1,200 flights were canceled throughout the region.
• Most train and commuter bus services in the area were also canceled.

Then:

Now:

For a weather briefing (Ark-La-Miss Region) by NWS click here.

Related Links:

• US Northeast Snow Records Broken

• Snow covers 70 pct of the U.S.
• 6 feet of snow blankets the Alps
• 2010 Disaster Calender – January
• The Storms Attack on California
• California: Powerful new storm sails ashore
• Transitory Impact of AO is the ‘Good News’
• December Snowstorm Only a Cat 3 on NESIS Scale
• United Kingdom of Ice
• State of Emergency in Oklahoma, S. Dakota, Texas
• ‘Humongous’ storm spreads across the US
• You Don’t Bring A Gun To A Snowball Fight!
• Winter Officially Starts Today!
• Deadly Winter Storm Paralyzes United States

The 9th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

The 9th powerful Earthquake (of a possible series of 14) Measuring 6.9 Mw Strikes Ryukyu Isles, Japan

A powerful earthquake measuring 6.9 Mw struck near Naha, Okinawa, Japan at a depth of 10km on February 26, 2010 at 20:31UTC. The mainshock was followed by a magnitude 5.1 aftershock which occurred on February 27, 2010 at 00:49 UTC, USGS reported.

Background:

• 8th Strong Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan
• Seventh Powerful Quake Hits Japan Region
• 6th Strong Quake Strikes Near Ryukyu Isles, Japan
• 5th Strong Quake Strikes Japan Region
• 6 to 8 more strong EQs may yet strike region
• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

Referring to an earlier forecast, FEWW Moderators believe an additional series of 5 or so quakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw could strike Japan region in the coming weeks.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,130°E

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP.

Political Map of Japan.

Earthquake Information Issued by JMA at 05:31 JST 27 Feb 2010

Occurred at (JST)	Latitude	Longitude	Depth	Mag.	Region Name
5:31 JST 27 Feb 2010	26.3ºN	128.2ºE	10km	6.9Mw	Okinawa-honto Kinkai

Approximate Distances (USGS):

• 80 km (50 miles) ESE of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
• 455 km (285 miles) ENE of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan
• 665 km (415 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, Japan
• 1530 km (950 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan

Tsunami Details

At 05:33 JST 27 Feb 2010   JMA Issued a Tsunami Warning for

• OKINAWA ISLANDS

Residents were advised to:  “Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.”

A Tsunami Advisory was issued  for

• AMAMI ISLANDS AND TOKARA ISLANDS
• DAITOJIMA AREA
• MIYAKOJIMA AND YAEYAMA AREA

At 07:01 JST 27 Feb 2010 JMA canceled all tsunami warnings and advisories: “No tsunami damage at the above coasts though there may be slight sea level changes from now on.”

JMA Tsunami code:
Tsunami Warning: “Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters, keep watch on tsunamis.”
Tsunami Advisory: “Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters, pay attention to tsunamis.”

Fire-Earth anticipates intense (above average) seismic activity and volcanic unrest/activity in the Japan Region throughout 2010 and beyond.

Related Links:

• 8th Strong Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan [February 7, 2010]
• Seventh Powerful Quake Hits Japan Region [October 30, 2009]
• 6th Strong Quake Strikes Near Ryukyu Isles, Japan [September 29, 2009]
• Strong Quake Strikes Near Shizuoka, Japan [August 11, 2009]
• 5th Strong Quake Strikes Japan Region [August 17, 2009]

• 4th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region [August 17, 2009]
• 3rd Powerful Quake in 3 Days Strikes Japan Region [August 13, 2009]
• Strong Quake Strikes Near Shizuoka, Japan [August 10, 2009]
• Powerful Earthquake Strikes Near Izu Islands, Japan [August 9, 2009]
• M 6.4 Quake Strikes SW Ryukkyu Isls, Japan [August 5, 2009]

• Magnitude 6.3 quake strikes Taiwan region
• Earthquakes [Links Page]
• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

Iceberg off Mertz Glacier ‘disrupt ocean currents’?

A large iceberg which calved from The Mertz Glacier Tongue in January [see Addendum] could ‘disrupt the ocean currents,’ and weather patterns globally, sensationalist scientists say.

The Mertz Glacier Tongue, which protrudes from East Antarctica, spawned the iceberg pictured below on or about January 10, 2010. The Iceberg is currently floating south of Melbourne, Australia.

The Mertz Glacier routinely spawns icebergs into the Southern Ocean, some of which drift north and disintegrate rapidly in warmer surroundings, while others circle the frozen continent and could stay relatively intact for many years, provided that they remain in cold waters.

Australian scientists have warned, however, that the 80-square-km iceberg (30 sq miles) could block a region which allegedly produces 25 percent of the world’s cold and dense seawater, BBC reported.

On January 10, 2010, the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite captured this true-color image of an iceberg that had broken off the glacier tongue. Similar to the glacier that spawned it, this iceberg sports a rippled surface, accentuated by the Sun’s relatively low elevation in the sky when the image was collected. Measuring roughly 8.5 by 9.5 kilometers (5 by 6 miles), this iceberg is surrounded by smaller chunks of ice, which may have broken off the Mertz Glacier Tongue at the same time as the large iceberg, or after it calved.  NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, Caption by Michon Scott. Edited by FEWW. Click here for ESA image of the entire glacier tongue.

A glaciologist at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Research Center in Tasmania, was quoted by the BBC as saying that any disruption to the production of the super cold water – known as bottom water – in the region would be detrimental to ocean currents, and therefore the weather patterns, for many years.

“This area accounts for about 25% of the production of bottom water in Antarctica, and therefore it will reduce the overturning circulation rate,” he said.

“You won’t see it immediately, but it has downstream effects. And it will also have implications for penguins and other wildlife in the region that normally use this area for feeding.”

The iceberg is floating in a polynya, an area of open water surrounded by sea-ice.  Latent heat polynyas are responsible for high ice production and possibly dense (high salinity) water production.

“Bottom water produced by polynyas sinks to the bottom of the sea and drives the conveyor-belt like ocean circulation around the globe.” BBC claimed.

“The ice tongue was almost broken already. It was hanging like a loose tooth,”  BBC quoted a French glaciologist as saying.

“If they [the icebergs] stay in this area – which is likely – they could block the production of this dense water, essentially putting a lid on the polynya.”

This map shows the pattern of thermohaline circulation also known as “meridional overturning circulation”. This collection of currents is responsible for the large-scale exchange of water masses in the ocean, including providing oxygen to the deep ocean. The entire circulation pattern takes  about 2000 years. Credit NASA.

Climate Change is bad news of epic proportions, of course,  and the accelerating rate of calving of icebergs is very alarming, indeed. However, despite its deep injuries, planet earth and its thermoline circulation system are far more resilient than to undergo dramatic changes due to a single iceberg.

ADDENDUM [12:40 PM UTC]

Since posting the above, Fire-Earth moderators have been advised that the iceberg featured above is NOT the one which is the subject of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center.

The new iceberg apparently calved off from Mertz Glacier Tongue on or about February 13, 2010.

ESA © ENVISAT ASAR image from the 16th of February 2010 showing the iceberg newly calved from the Mertz Glacier Tongue. The final separation did not simply occur along all the line of the two pre-existing rifts but sheared across some sections to produce a clean line. The iceberg is now turning about a point at its north-west corner which confirms our belief that is has been resting against a relatively shallow point of the sea-floor. Caption: ACECRC.

• See Large Image of Mertz by ESA

According to the ACECRC website the iceberg that calved from the Mertz Glacier is 78 km long and has a surface area of 2,500 square km. The new iceberg broke off the Mertz Glacier Tongue after a 97km long iceberg smashed into it.

Although the new iceberg is about 30 times larger than the one featured in NASA image (Top of the page), the Fire-Earth Moderators’ initial assessment remains UNCHANGED.

The Moderators do NOT believe the new calving would ADVERSELY affect the large scale ocean circulation, or have any significant climatic impact.

Further more, they see absolutely NO reason why the iceberg may cause significant modifications in the local marine environment.

Additional Notes:

The BBC Himalayan Straw Man?

The Moderators also note that the BBC has since changed the text of the page linked to above  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8538060.stm

However, the page was accidentally saved on disk …

BBC’s initial post, which has since been replaced by an entirely different text. Click image to enlarge. Image may be subject to copyright.

BBC’s 2nd version using the same URL was a pathetic dolphin tearjerker, which has since been removed. Click image to enlarge. Image may be subject to copyright.

Drug Related Violence in Mexico A Major Disaster

Who Is Profiting from Booming Cocaine Trade in the US?

Cocaine Demand in the United States Fuels the drug related Massacres in Mexico

Why isn’t the US government stemming the flow of cocaine to the United States, or making it legal like alcohol?

The mayor of a city in Durango state, a deputy police chief in Chihuahua and five local police officers are among the latest toll in drug related murders in Mexico.

More than 50 people have been killed in Mexico in the past few days, bringing the drug related death toll to more than 15,000 since 2006.

“Last year, according to the El Universal newspaper, was the deadliest in Mexico in the past decade, with 7,724 people killed in violent incidents attributed to organized crime groups.” LAHT said.

In the Ciudad Juarez, a region on the US -Mexico border, some 2,700 murders were recorded in 2009.

So far this year, drug-related violence has claimed at least 1,400 lives, local media reports say.

World annual cocaine consumption is estimated at 600 to 700 metric tons, with the United States responsible for more than 50% of the total. US remains the largest single market for cocaine (Europe 25% of the total, and the rest of the world less than 25%).

The body of “fugitive” U.S. marshal Vincent Bustamante was found in the outskirts of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on March 25, 2009. AP photo. Image may be subject to copyright.

An estimated 200,000 people have left Ciudad Juarez [population:  1.5 million] since the middle of 2008  from fear of a turf war between the Mexican cartels, according to a number of reports.

“The government of Felipe Calderon is 3 years old and in Sinaloa, we have not seen decisive action against the narcos,”  a Mexican politician said. “Nothing serious is being done.”

As Mexico’s drug cartels battle  for control of the smuggling routes into the United States, the questions Americans should ask is:

Why isn’t the US government stemming the flow of cocaine to the United States, or making it legal like alcohol?

[NOTE: Fire-Earth does NOT condone the use of narcotics, but shares the belief that alcohol consumption is equally, if not more, dangerous than cocaine use.]

Related News Links:

• Mexico captures Sinaloa cartel cocaine trafficker
• Mayor Among Over a Dozen Killed in Mexico

More Activity at Soufriere Hills Volcano

Soufriere Hills Hellbent on Blowing Up Montserrat Island

In Montserrat: What Next? Fire-Earth wrote that Montserrat island could become completely uninhabitable by 2013 or earlier.

“Based on the pattern of volcanic activity at Soufriere Hills volcano since 1995, evidence of increased volcanism globally and a number of other  factors, the FEWW EarthModel forecasts the probability of Montserrat island becoming completely uninhabitable by by 2013 was equal or greater than 80 percent.”

Meanwhile, the Montserrat Volcano Observatory on February 21 reported that “the drainages leading down from Soufrière Hills, including the White River Valley, the Tar River Valley, and the Belham River Valley, were filled with fresh debris,” NASA Earth observatory said. The pyroclastic flows entered the sea via Aymers Ghaut more than a month ago, and the flows reached the sea near Plymouth on February 5, 2010.

Image # 1 (reportedly acquired by NASA on Feb 21, 2010)

Image # 2 (reportedly acquired by NASA on March 17, 200y – used for comparison)
A massive eruption of Montserrat’s Soufrière Hills Volcano triggered by a collapse of Soufrière Hills’ summit lava dome  covered large portions of the island in debris on February 11, 2010. Pyroclastic flows raced down the northern flank of the volcano, leveling trees and destroying buildings in the village of Harris, already abandoned after Soufrière Hills activity in 1995. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory reported that some flows, about 15 meters (49 feet) thick, reached the sea at Trant’s Bay, extending the island’s coastline up to 650 meters (2,100 feet). These false-color satellite images show the southern half of Montserrat before and after the dome collapse. The top image was taken on February 21, 2010, 10 days after the event. The bottom image shows the same area on March 17, 2007. Red areas are vegetated, clouds are white, blue/black areas are ocean water, and gray areas are covered by flow deposits. Fresh deposits are lighter than older deposits. On February 21, the drainages leading down from Soufrière Hills, including the White River Valley, the Tar River Valley, and the Belham River Valley, were filled with fresh debris. Pyroclastic flows reached the sea through Aymers Ghaut on January 18, 2010, and flows entered the sea near Plymouth on February 5, 2010, Montserrat Volcano Observatory said.

• More images of this event in Natural Hazards (EO)

Note: Links to Montserrat Volcano Observatory have been removed because the site is used for commercial advertising and promotion of tourism.

Related Links:

• Satellite Images of Recent Volcanic Activities
• Montserrat Soufrière Hills Resumes Activity
• Montserrat: What Next?
• Soufriere Hills Volcano Vents Ash

El Niño Weekly Update [22 February 2010]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  22  February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (oC) for the Last Four Weeks

• Weeks•During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have extended from 170°E eastward to the South American coast.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the central Pacific and increased in the extreme eastern Pacific

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

• In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
• The most recent period (below) indicates another downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave is increasing temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. Since mid January,the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northwestern U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the eastern and central United States.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.

• The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

• Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
• What Florida Might Look Like in 2014
• SE Australia Toasted Brown
• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

• El Niño Weekly Update [15 February 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [8 February 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]

• El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

No Nuke Dump Site Quite Like Nevada

South Carolina to sue President “Chauncey Gardiner” over Yucca Mountain nuke dump site plan reversal

South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster has threatened to take legal action to stop President Obama from abandoning plan to build a nuke waste dumping site in Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

The Yucca Mountain designated by US Congress as deep geological repository storage facility for the country’s radioactive waste. In 2009 the Obama Admin. proposed to eliminate all funding in the 2009 United States Federal Budget. In March 2009, Energy Secretary Steven Chu told a Senate hearing “the Yucca Mountain site was no longer viewed as an option for storing reactor waste.”

In January, Obama administration announced it was abandoning  a plan to build a  nuclear waste storage site at Yucca Mountain near Las Vegas, Nevada [for political reasons, rather than environmental concerns.]

[Temporary] storage areas for the US nuclear mess.

“McMaster said that he would file a petition to intervene with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission this week and plans to take additional legal action in appellate courts in Washington and Virginia on Friday.” Reuters reported.

“South Carolina has a vested interest in insuring that the Yucca Mountain licensing proceedings continue, so that the spent fuel and other nuclear material now being temporarily stored in our state will be safely placed in the Yucca Mountain repository, as mandated by the United States Congress,” McMaster said.

The site at Yucca Mountain was considered an ideal nuclear waste repository by Congress in 1987  to store most of the  nation’s high level radioactive waste, which is currently piling up at numerous ["temporary"] locations throughout the country including Savannah River Site in South Carolina.

“Reached for comment, McMaster said he planned to file either a temporary restraining order, a writ of mandamus, or both, to either the District of Columbia Court of Appeals or the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Va., on Friday.” Reuters said.

“There seems to be no other alternative … The Obama administration is attempting to stop a process that was begun many years ago and was confirmed and ordered by federal law,” he said.

“We have seven nuclear power plants in South Carolina. The nuclear waste is still there and in temporary storage and has been there since the beginning … Our position is it ought to go to Yucca Mountain.”

Annotated astronaut photo of the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA. Picture taken from the International Space Station by ISS Crew. Labels by NASA Earth Observatory newsroom.

Why shouldn’t OUR nuclear waste be dumped in someone else’s backyard, McMaster might have been tempted to say .

America’s energy requirements could be reduced PAINLESSLY and MANY NEW JOBS could be created, if the government cared!

Related Links:

• Obama Goes Nuclear!
• On The Way To Armageddon
• Top Ten Facts About Your Hungry Building
• 286W
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

Significant ‘Red Tide’ to Plague New England in 2010

Shelfish such as Mussels and clams accumulate biotoxins produced by Alexandrium, which can cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in humans who ingest them.

NOAA Public Release

Researchers Issue Outlook for a Significant New England ‘Red Tide’ in 2010

Seed Population on Seafloor Points to a large ‘Red Tide’; Impacts will Depend on Ocean Conditions and Weather

Researchers at Gulf of Maine Toxicity project have issued an outlook for a significant regional bloom of a toxic alga that causes ‘red tides’ in the spring and summer of this year, potentially threatening the New England shellfish industry.

Microscopic image of Alexandrium fundyense cysts, the “seeds” that fall to the ocean bottom at the end of one season’s blooms.  Under the right conditions, these cells can germinate the following year to initiate another season’s blooms. High resolution (Credit: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

The outlook is based on a seafloor survey of the seed-like cysts of Alexandrium fundyense, an organism that causes harmful algal blooms, sometimes referred to as ‘red tides’. Cysts deposited in the fall hatch the following spring; last fall the abundance of cysts in the sediment was 60 percent higher than observed prior to the historic bloom of 2005, indicating that a large bloom is likely in the spring of 2010.

The cyst bed also appears to have expanded to the south, so the 2010 bloom may affect areas such as Massachusetts Bay and Georges Bank sooner than has been the case in past years.

Maps showing the concentration of Alexandrium cysts buried in Gulf of Maine seafloor sediments over four years. The cyst abundance in 2009 is higher than ever observed and the Alexandrium cyst “seedbed” extends further to the south than was ever observed before.  High resolution (Credit: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Although the algae in the water pose no direct threat to human beings, toxins produced by Alexandrium can accumulate in filter-feeding organisms such as mussels and clams, which can cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in humans who consume them. In order to protect public health, shellfish beds are monitored by state agencies and closed when toxin concentrations rise above a quarantine level. There have been no illnesses from legally harvested shellfish in recent years despite some severe blooms.

“’Red tide’ is a chronic problem in the Gulf of Maine and states have limited resources to handle it,” said Darcie Couture, director of Biotoxin Monitoring for the Maine Department of Marine Resources. “When we get this information about the potential severity of a bloom season and the dynamics of the bloom once the season has started, then it gives us an advantage in staging our resources during an otherwise overwhelming environmental and economic crisis.”

More …

Leave Orcas (Dolphins) Out of Your Circus Act

Orcas (Dolphins) Can and Do Kill

Killer whale (orca) kills trainer at SeaWorld amusement park in Orlando, Florida

A female trainer was killed by a 6.5 ton killer whale (orca) at SeaWorld’s Shamu Stadium in Orlando, Florida, police and local media reported.

Orcas perform at Shamu Stadium at SeaWorld in Orlando, Florida. Credit: David Bjorgen.  Copyleft. Multi-license with GFDL and Creative Commons CC-BY-SA 2.5

The killer whale, who is called Tilikum, or “Tilly,” is actually an orca (Orcinus orca) aka blackfish, the largest member of the dolphin family. Orcas are wild, powerful animals who can and do kill, especially when they feel threatened.

Two mammal-eating “transient” killer whales photographed off the south side of Unimak Island, eastern Aleutian Islands, Alaska. Photo Credit: Robert Pittman/NOAA.

Dawn Brancheau, 40, an experienced “trainer” at the famous Florida tourist attraction, was killed by the killer whale Tilikum after she accidentally fell into the holding tank.

“She apparently slipped and fell into the tank and was fatally injured by one of the whales,” police spokesperson said. “Brancheau was pronounced dead at the park after being recovered from the pool. Orange County Sheriff’s Office homicide investigators continue to investigate the death of the trainer who was reported to have 16 years of experience working with killer whales.”

According to eye-witness reports, the orca at the park’s Shamu Stadium grabbed the woman by the waist, “thrashed her about and dragged her underwater,” minutes before a public performance was about to start.

“There were conflicting reports about how the incident occurred. The Orlando Sentinel quoted a spectator as saying the whale came up from the water and grabbed the trainer by her waist. The sheriff’s official said preliminary accounts indicated she slipped and fell in, but that was still under investigation.” Reuters reported .

“He was thrashing her around pretty good. It was violent,’” an eyewitness  said.

The whale “took off really fast in the tank, and then he came back, shot up in the air, grabbed the trainer by the waist and started thrashing around, and one of her shoes flew off,” she added.

According to the Orlando Sentinel, “Tilly” was blamed for drowning of one of his trainers at  Sealand of the Pacific in Victoria, British Columbia, in 1991 during a performance.

SeaWorld bought Tilly in 1992, and 7 years later he was reportedly involved in a second incident when the park authorities found the body of a naked man lying across his back.

They claimed the man was drowned after suffering hypothermia.

How the US Woman Emily May Harper Was Killed in NZ

Emily May Harper, 27, had a cardiac arrest while swimming with dolphins in Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand, October 20, 2009. Matthew Hawkins had proposed to Emily Harper. (Courtesy Matthew Hawkins )

In October 2009, a  27-year-old American woman was killed in New Zealand while swimming with [agitated] dolphins.

The New Zealand authorities, worried about losing substantial income from their “eco-tourism” industry, tried to cover-up the incident, claiming that the victim had died of natural causes. More …

Related Links:

• US Woman killed Swimming with Dolphins in NZ
• Another American Woman Killed in New Zealand
• Sick kiwis harm generous dolphin
• Tourist boats destroying dolphin community in New Zealand

Tilikum Bio
Tilikum, sometimes misspelled Tillikum, is a bull Orca who lives at SeaWorld Orlando. He was captured near Iceland in November 1983 at about two years of age. Tilikum measures 22 feet 6 inches long and weighs in at 12,300 pounds (as of 2007). His pectoral fins are six and one half feet long, his massive flukes curl under, and his 6-foot-tall dorsal fin is flopped completely to his left side, and weighs close to 200 pounds. He is the largest Orca in captivity and also the most successful sire in captivity, with 13 offspring, 10 of which are still alive. His name means friend in Chinook Jargon, usually spelled Tilicum and also meaning “people/tribe” or “kin”. [Wikipedia]

Massive Oil Spill in Italy Poisoning Major River

“Oil spill threatens ‘ecological disaster’ in Italy”

“An oil spill that fouled a small river in northern Italy reached the Po River on Wednesday, with officials warning of an ecological disaster as they scrambled to contain the spill before it contaminated Italy’s longest and most important river.” AP reported.

A View of Po River from Turin, Italy. Photo Credit: Miguel Tremblay

The spill is believed to have been caused by sabotage at an oil depot which was previously a refinery, “since the cisterns were apparently opened and allowed to flow into the Lambro River near Monza.”

The amount of the spill is estimated at 600,000 liters (158,500 gallons), which is substantially lower than the initial estimates of about 10 million liters.

“The spill began Tuesday and spread south down the Lambro to Piacenza and Cremona overnight, despite efforts to contain it. By Wednesday, it had reached the Po, which crosses the country from Piedmont in the west, across Milan and Verona before emptying into the Adriatic sea.”  More…

Related Link:

• Disasters Caused by Oil and gas Drilling, Oil Spills, Leaks, Land, Water and Air Pollution