Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for March 16th, 2010

Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia

Posted by feww on March 16, 2010

ULUI a Super Cyclone, Again

ULUI Has Refueled, Revving Up Toward Queensland, Australia

Super Cyclone ULUI is moving toward the coat of Queensland, eastern Australia, with maximum sustained winds of more than 250 km/hr (~ 135 kt) and wind gusts of up to 325 km/hr.

Depending on how far south of the coast it lands, the cyclone  could strike Queensland as a Category 1 to 3A hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale.


Visible/IR images of Super Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) on its way to the coast of QLD, Australia. (Top to bottom: 8km, 4km and 2km resolution). Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.


Wind Shear.
Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.


Model Forecast Tracks.
Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

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Posted in cyclone, Cyclone ULUI QLD, storm, tropical cyclone, ULUI Australia | Tagged: , , | 11 Comments »

133,000,000 Wise Monkeys

Posted by feww on March 16, 2010

submitted by a reader

They See NO CO2, Smell NO CO2 and Believe NO CO2

Nearly half of Americans think climate change concerns are overstated and over a third doubt the environmental consequence—Gallop


The original Three Wise Monkeys hear, speak, see no evil. Wood carving at Toshogu, Nikko, Tochigi Prefecture, Japan. Source: Wikimedia.

As the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 390 parts per million (see below),  48 percent of Americans said they believed the seriousness of climate change is overstated, up from 41 percent in 2009 and 31 percent in 1997, when Gallup first ran the survey, Reuters  reported.

“Thirty-five percent said in the latest poll that the effects of global warming either will never happen (19 percent) or will not happen in their lifetimes (16 percent).”

Gallup surveyed about1,000 adults, and the poll had error margin of ± 4 percent.

What Percentage of Americans DO Understand and Care?

It doesn’t take the rocket scientists at NASA to work this one out. Add 48 and 35 and the maximum margins of error (otherwise allow for the “I dunno”), and deduct the subtotal from 100 percent:   100 – (48 + 35 + 4 + 4) = 9% of the U-S population

Only then will you realize what an uphill struggle this can be!


The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.

The last four complete years of the Mauna Loa CO2 record plus the current year are shown. Data are reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO2 itself, after water vapor has been removed. The mole fraction is expressed as parts per million (ppm). Example: 0.000400 is expressed as 400 ppm.

In the above figure, the dashed red line with diamond symbols represents the monthly mean values, centered on the middle of each month. The black line with the square symbols represents the same, after correction for the average seasonal cycle. The latter is determined as a moving average of SEVEN adjacent seasonal cycles centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last THREE and one-half years of the record, where the seasonal cycle has been averaged over the first and last SEVEN years, respectively.

The last year of data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. The Mauna Loa data are being obtained at an altitude of 3400 m in the northern subtropics, and may not be the same as the globally averaged CO2 concentration at the surface.

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Posted in Climate Change, climate change fallout, environmental impact of warming, GHG | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Chile’s Bio-Bio Hit by Another Strong Aftershock

Posted by feww on March 16, 2010

Another strong aftershock measuring up to 6.9Mw strikes offshore, Bio Bio, Chile

The epicenter of aftershock, which struck at a depth of about 20 km, was located at 36.14°S, 73.16°W. The event occurred on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 at 02:22UTCMonday, March 15, 2010 at 11:22PM at epicenter).

Yesterday, another strong aftershock measuring up to 6.3Mw struck near the epicenter of today’s event.

There was no threat of a significant tsunami as a result of this event.

Distances:

  • 65 km NW Talcahuano (pop 252,968)
  • 54 km NW Tomé (pop 46,698)
  • 80 km (50 miles) N of Concepcion, Chile
  • 105 km (65 miles) WNW of Chillan, Chile
  • 155 km (95 miles) WSW of Talca, Chile
  • 375 km (230 miles) SW of SANTIAGO, Chile


Chile Aftershock Location Map. © Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ

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Posted in chile earthquake, chile strong aftershock, earthquake, Talcahuano, Tomé | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16

Posted by feww on March 16, 2010

TOMAS a Cat 4A Storm on FEWW Scale

TOMAS Wobbled Toward Main Fiji Islands, Then Moved South

As the cyclone went past Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest Island, it wobbled toward the main islands; however, you couldn’t see what exactly happened because the high res satellite images were withdrawn from various sites.

Having checked the continuous loop images earlier, the moderators  noticed that up to 3 original frames in the MTSAT image loops appeared to be “gap fillers.”

Latest satellite image of TOMAS, as of posting:

Back in FIJI …

The Government of FIJI has just declared a State of Disaster for the Northern and Eastern divisions of Fiji.

The declaration was made by Fiji’s National Disaster Council due to “the serious situation that had resulted in Tropical Cyclone Tomas’ wake in the North.” Fiji Times reported.

Officials said “The same situation as the North is likely to be repeated in the Eastern Division.” The Eastern division is made up of the Lomaiviti and Lau groups of islands.
Fiji’s “Northern division” consists of Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest island, Taveuni and dozens of smaller islands including Cikobia, Fiji Times said.

More than 17,000 people fled their homes in Western division, the report said.

“The National Disaster Council has declared a state of disaster in the northern division and eastern division,” National Disaster Management Office operations officer Anthony Blake said.

The Council is particularly concerned about the islands of Cikobia and Qelelevu because they have not heard anything from them since the cyclone struck there about 36 hours  earlier.

At least 50 properties had been destroyed, as of posting, reports said. However, the extent of destruction and damage is bound to be much greater given the force of TOMAS and vulnerability of Fiji islands to storms.

“On Gau island to the east of Viti Levu, Lamiti village head teacher Solomone Rasiga told Fiji commercial radio the villagers sheltered overnight from fierce winds and heavy rain.” AFP reported.

“The wind is very strong, there is a lot of damage to crops,” he said.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 16 at 00:01UTC

  • Position:  18.2S 179.9W
  • Max Sustained Winds :  210km/hr (~ 115 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: ~ 260km/hr ( 140 kts)
  • Movement: South
  • Forward Speed:  9km/hr (~ 05 kts)
  • Location: 315km  (170 NM) EAST-NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
  • Comment: TOMAS is a Category 4A hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to start weakening in about 48 hours, becoming fully extratropical in 72 hours, as it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
  • Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
  • Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.


Cyclone TOMAS Projected Track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 16 at 00:01UTC

  • Position: 13.3S 157.8E
  • Max Sustained Winds:  232 km/hr (~ 125 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: 290km/hr (~ 155 kts)
  • Movement:  West
  • Forward Speed:  ~ 7 km/hr ( 4 kts)
  • Location: About 1,710km (925 NM) NNE of Brisbane, Australia
  • Maximum significant wave height: 12m (36 feet)
  • Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
  • Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 72  hours due to increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing ocean heat content. The cyclone is  a Category 4B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale.


Cyclone ULUI Projected Track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.


MTSAT – IR Image


MTSAT – Colorized IR Image


MTSAT – Visible Image

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Posted in cyclone, Cyclone TOMAS, hurricane, ocean heat content, storm | Tagged: , , , , | 12 Comments »

 
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