Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response could occur by early 2016

Archive for April, 2011

Tornado Damage Forces Virginia Nuclear Plant Shutdown

Posted by feww on April 20, 2011

Tornado-damaged Surry Nuclear Power Plant Forced to Shut Down

A weekend tornado reportedly damaged the switchyard at Dominion’s Surry Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) forcing both aging reactor units to shut down.

The power station is located near James River in SE Virginia across from Jamestown, and upriver from Smithfield and Newport News.

The NPP is operated by Dominion Generation and owned by Dominion Resources, Inc. The damage disabled the power to the plant’s cooling pumps and forced the  two aging units (commissioned in 1972 and 73) to shut down.

The plant has a total nameplate capacity of about 1,600MW.

On December 9, 1986 four technicians were killed when a steam explosion destroyed parts of a “non-nuclear” section in the plant’s Reactor 2 building.


U.S. Map of Nuclear Power Plants. Approximate locations of the 3 NPPs cited in this report are marked by FIRE-EARTH. Click map to enlarge.

Crystal River nuclear power plant in Florida

“Earlier this month, new containment wall damage was discovered at Progress Energy’s 838-MW Crystal River nuclear plant in Florida, extending the unit’s 18-month outage indefinitely.” The report said.

Commissioned in 1977,  the 914 megawatts pressurized water reactor is  located in Crystal River, Florida.

Brunswick NPP, Southport, NC

Progress Energy has also shut down its 920-MW Brunswick 2 nuclear reactor (commissioned in 1975) in North Carolina yesterday, as  it was returning from a refueling outage, the report said.

This post will be updated with additional information added, throughout the day.

Related Links

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Another Round of Extreme Weather Looms

Posted by feww on April 20, 2011

‘Strong severe weather’ for southern Plains across the Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Midwest: NWS

On March 1, 2011, FIRE-EARTH forecast

U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather

Brace for the Worst Ever!  Climatic  Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond …

NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.

Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE  for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

Flooding and fires, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, deadly tornadoes and strong storms … are just some of the items you’ve ordered from the climate change quick menu!

U.S. Weather Hazard Map


Click image to enter NWS portal.

“A 7-state area at Moderate Risk for severe weather is surrounded by a core of 14 states at Slight Risk that stretches from northeast Texas to western Pennsylvania and New York.” NWS reported.

Weather Forecast Map

Weather Extremes Today

  • Large area of severe weather is forecast
  • Heavy snow probability in most of North Dakota, N and NW South Dakota, S. Minnesota, Wisconsin, N Iowa
  • Rain and thunderstorms over the central Plains
  • Snow in the mountain areas of the west

Wilmington, OH Radar


Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to update.

SPC Storm Reports


Latest report. Click images to enlarge 


Tuesday


Monday

Public Severe Weather Outlook

Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the Ozarks, the lower and middle Mississippi Valleys, and the lower Ohio Valley through tonight: Read SPC forecast.

Probability of Tornadoes – click images to enlarge

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of Hail

Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2″ or larger within 25 miles of a point


Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.


Convective Outlook.

Related Links


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Texas Fires: More Towns Evacuated

Posted by feww on April 19, 2011

Wildfire force Evacuations of several  towns, Communities

More than 6,000 Fires Consume 1.78 million hectares, 743 structures

Fire Status

Year-to-Date Stats

  • Total Fires:  6,044
  • Acres Burned: 1,787,363
  • Structures Lost to Fire: 743

Current Situation

  • 10 new fires
  • 1 million acres burned since April 6
  • “The 100 acre Pinnacle Fire, now 90 percent contained destroyed 6 homes, caused numerous evacuations, and threatened 100 homes & 10 businesses.” TFS reported.

New large fires from yesterday

  • CR 4600 (Woodville 285), Tyler County: 130 acres, 25% contained

Large, uncontained fires from previous days

- PK COMPLEX, Stephens and Palo Pinto Counties. 147,065 acres total.

  • PK West Fire is 89,715 acres, unknown containment.
  • PK East Fire is 10,996 acres, unknown containment.
  • Hohertz Fire is 40,575 acres, unknown containment.
  • Jackson Ranch Fire is 6,687 acres, 50 percent contained.
  • 600+ homes are threatened [residents evacuated]
  • 31 homes have been confirmed destroyed.
  • “Residents of Possum Kingdom Lake had largely evacuated and were desperately trying to learn the fate of their homes. The forest service said 149 homes had been destroyed,” a report said.
  • More homes have been reported as destroyed yesterday, waiting confirmation.
  • The town of Strawn has been evacuated.
  • 30 homes at Bunger and several communities surrounding Possum Kingdom Lake have been evacuated; the fire is now 6 miles.


A wildfire threatens an upmarket hom near Possum Kingdom, Texas, April 19, 2011. Photo: LM Otero/Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright.

- WILDCAT, Coke County. 150,000 acres, north of San Angelo, unknown containment.

  • More than 400 homes have been saved.
  • The communities of Grape Creek, Quail Valley, Bronte, Robert Lee and Tennyson are threatened.
  • Evacuations are in effect for multiple communities.

- COOPER MOUNTAIN RANCH, Kent, Stonewall, Scurry and Fisher counties.

  • 152,000 acres, 80 percent contained.
  • Four homes have been destroyed.

- ROCKHOUSE, Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. 191,066 acres, 75 percent contained.

  • 23 homes and 2 businesses were destroyed in the Ft. Davis area.

- SWENSON, Stonewall, King, and Knox counties. 122,500 acres, 90 percent contained.

- BRYSON COMPLEX, Jack County. 7,500 acres, 50 percent contained.

  • More than 150 homes were threatened and saved in the town of Bryson.
  • 70 people have been evacuated.

- PIPELINE, Tyler County. 7,000 acres, 75 percent contained.

  • Forty homes are threatened

- SMITH, Young County. 2,000 acres, 85 percent contained.

- CR 104, Eastland County. 2,000 acres, 85 percent contained.

  • 1,850 homes were threatened in the city of Cisco, as well as a church camp.
  • Five homes destroyed.

- WICHITA COUNTY COMPLEX, Wichita County. 11,785 acres, 90 percent contained.

  • Shepard Air Force Base and  hundreds of homes and apartment complexes around the area were threatened.
  • Seven homes are destroyed.

- FRYING PAN RANCH, Andrews County. 80,907 acres, 80 percent contained.

  • Numerous homes WNW of Andrews were threatened, but none have been lost.

- CANNON FIRE COMPLEX, Pecos County: Three large fires burning 50 miles east of Ft. Stockton, 80 percent contained

  • The Cannon Fire:  9,248 acres
  • The DRH Fire: 26,284 acres
  • The Little Smokey Fire: 27,895 acres

- EAST SIDWYNICKS, Eastland County. 3,000 acres burning near Carbon City, 95 percent contained.

  • 1200 homes were threatened.

- McPHERSON, Sutton County. 1,600 acres, 80 percent contained.
- SUTTON, Crockett County. 31,120 acres, 60 percent contained.
- YATES FIELD (formerly Iraan), Pecos County. 300 acres, 80 percent contained.

- ENCINO, Tom Green County. 12,659 acres, 90 percent contained.  Ten homes threatened and saved.

  • Two homes damaged.

- HICKMAN, Midland County. 16,500 acres, 98 percent contained.

  • 34 homes were destroyed,
  • 62 homes were damaged on this fire south of Midland.

- MIDDLE PEASE, Motley County. 400 acres, 90 percent contained.
- DAD’S CORNER, Archer County. 6,100 acres, 70 percent contained.

  • Fifteen homes are threatened.

More information available at TFS

Other Incidents

  • In a related incident,  two people were killed when their small airplane crashed as it circled over a West Texas wildfire, a report said.
  • Meanwhile, the town of Palo Pinto was under an evacuation order Tuesday night, a report said.

Related News Links

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Severe Thunderstorms Brewing

Posted by feww on April 19, 2011

US Weather Update

Severe thunderstorms forecast for parts of the Ozarks, the lower and middle Mississippi Valleys, and the lower Ohio Valley later today through tonight: NWS

Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail developing in the Ozarks will move  into parts of Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys later today through tonight: NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasts

Most likely target areas:

  • Northern And Western Arkansas
  • Central And Southern Illinois
  • Central And Southern Indiana
  • Western And Northern Kentucky
  • Southern And Eastern Missouri
  • Western Ohio
  •  Eastern Oklahoma
  • Northwest Tennessee

Severe Weather Forecast Map


Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to update

See earlier entry at

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image 

Image of the Day: The Angry Storm Face


Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to update


‘Severe thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop over Missouri and Illinois this afternoon and spread quickly east this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, golf ball or larger size hail, and damaging straight line wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. The storms are expected to exit the region to the east by late evening.’ NWS said.


“A cold front will move into the area on Wednesday and bring a good chance for thunderstorms.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe, but the better chance for more organized severe thunderstorms will be to the northwest of our area. The front will stall in our area on Thursday, with the possibility for showers and thunderstorms lingering through the period and perhaps into the weekend,” NWS said.

More information available at NWS …

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Japan Triple Disasters – Update 19 April

Posted by feww on April 19, 2011

Great East Japan Earthquake: 92 percent of the March 11 victims died of drowning

Japan authorities have revealed that 92 percent of the victims of Great East Japan Earthquake, whose bodies have so far been recovered, died of drowning as a result of the deadly tsunami that was spawned by the Mega Quake in the Tohoku region on March 11.

Human Cost of Japan’s March 11 Disasters

  • Death toll: About 14,000
  • No. of Missing: Just over 14,000
  • Main Cause of Death:  About 92% of the victims died of drowning in the tsunami
  • Age Distribution: About two-thirds of the victims were aged 65 or older
  • Source: NHK

Other Stats:

  • No. of Homeless: At least 155,000 [Many others who have moved in with their relatives are NOT included in the govt stats.]
  • Others Missing: In addition to the 14,030 people who are officially missing, an unknown number of others who lived in remote, inaccessible  areas may also have perished, but no records were available as of posting.

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Technicians at Fukushima NPP have begun removing highly radioactive water  from basement of Reactor 2 .

Authorities say a total of 70,000 tons of radioactive water is accumulated in the plant’s reactor and turbine buildings, and surrounding trenches.

Remote-controlled robots sent into reactor buildings 1, 2 and 3 on Sunday and Monday showed  radiation levels inside two of the units (1 and 3) were too high for humans.


A remote-controlled robot dubbed “Packbot,” capable of manoeuvring through buildings, taking photos, and measuring radiation levels, is photographed by another Packbot in the stricken Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant No.1 reactor building in Fukushima, N. Japan on April 18, 2011. Photo released by Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) on April 19, 2011. TEPCO handout photo via Reuters.

Other News

“It was clear even before this disaster and the need to secure funds for reconstruction that to ensure a sustainable fiscal situation, some sort of reform of spending and revenues was necessary,” said Internal Affairs Minister Yoshiro Katayama. “The debate over the fiscal situation is not something that began with this disaster,” he told reporters.

A Japanese restaurant in Auckland, New Zealand has attached bells to its charity donation buckets after a thief stole cash intended for Japan’s earthquake and tsunami victims, a report said. “At least seven donation buckets in Japanese businesses around Auckland have been filched recently.”

Related Links

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WHEN

Posted by feww on April 19, 2011

‘Know Exactly Where You Are Heading’

Large-scale die-offs could start by 2016

FIRE-EARTH Moderators believe that they have identified one of the MEGA TRIGGERS that could ultimately lead to mass die-offs: JPTRMT1 

The findings concur with EDRO Energy Models: Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying

EDRO models have previously identified another MEGA TRIGGER:  Nuking Earth for Lifestyle

EDRO have also calculated the the probabilities of the ‘End Game Scenarios’: Giga Trends

JPTRMT1 could potentially lead to a Global War.

Related Links

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U.S. Tornado Outbreak – Update 19 April

Posted by feww on April 19, 2011

More severe weather expected Tuesday

U.S. Tornadoes kill at least 58 in East, South since Thursday

The weekend tornado outbreak killed 45 people and destroyed many homes and businesses in the East and South, NWS reported. Severe thunderstorms are forecast in the Southeast again Tuesday.

[NOTE: SPC reported 45 fatalities for the weekend. FIRE-EARTH has added 13 other fatalities reported on SPC website for Thursday, April 14.]


Weekend Tornadoes: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia.

Weekend Death Toll

  • North Carolina: 22
  • Alabama: 7
  • Arkansas: 7
  • Virginia: 6
  • Oklahoma: 2
  • Mississippi: 1

Thursday’s Death Toll

  • Alabama: 2
  • Arkansas: 8
  • Louisiana: 1
  • Oklahoma: 2

Severe Weather report Summary

“Forecasters said a disturbance moving from the Midwest this morning could account for minor snow accumulations across southern Michigan into northwest New York by tonight. Largely-scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers are expected to move into the Plains and the Midwest tonight into Tuesday. This system is forecast to produce a substantial outbreak of thunderstorms and possibly severe weather from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Potentially heavy rain will impact already-elevated river levels.” NWS reported.

Severe Weather Stats:

Severe Weather Map


Click image to enlarge.

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image


Eastern Conus Sector (Infrared Channel). Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to update.

“A large area of the Midwest, central Plains and the Southeast will be at slight risk for severe weather development Tuesday with a core area at Moderate Risk,” Storm Prediction Center forecasters said.

The 7-state area at Moderate Risk

Parts of Missouri, northern Arkansas, the southern two-thirds of Illinois, all of Indiana except the northern quarter, extreme SW Ohio, W. and N. Kentucky and extreme NW Tennessee.

The 18-state area at Slight Risk
Parts of Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Michigan, Alabama, Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia, SPC said.

Flooding

“Main-stem river flooding continues throughout the northern Plains and along parts of the Missouri and Mississippi River drainages.”

From: 2011 Disaster Calendar – April

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M6.6 Quake Strikes S of the KERMADEC Islands

Posted by feww on April 18, 2011

WE TOLD YOU SO!

Strong Quake Rattles New Zealand’s Proposed Oil Drilling Site at Raukumara Basin

On April 15, 2011  FIRE-EARTH said

Ironically, Raukumara Basin sits between Kermadec Trench and Kermadec Ridge, and has an inherently unstable geology. FIRE-EARTH believes any oil-drilling in the exceptionally seismic area would most certainly prove disastrous for the entire region.

The quake struck at a depth of 90 km about 550 km ENE of Auckland, New Zealand.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,180°E


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Earthquake Details [USGS]

  • Magnitude: 6.6
  • Date-Time: Monday, April 18, 2011 at 13:03:04 UTC [Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 01:03:04 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 34.321°S, 179.994°E
  • Depth: 90.4 km (56.2 miles)
  • Region:  SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS  [NNE of East Cape, New Zealand]
  • Distances:
    • 380 km NNE (21°) of East Cape New Zealand [FIRE-EARTH estimate]
    • 551 km (342 miles) ENE (61°) from Auckland, New Zealand
    • 899 km (559 miles) NNE (32°) from WELLINGTON, New Zealand
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 14.1 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 5.4 km (3.4 miles)
  • Parameters:  NST=460, Nph=487, Dmin=390.7 km, Rmss=1.26 sec, Gp= 14°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=E
  • Source:  U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
  • Event ID:  usc0002ty7

In Navy Vessel Used Against Deep Sea Drilling Protesters Posted on April 15, 2011 FIRE-EARTH said:


The 25,000sqkm Raukumara Basin extends about 300km north of East Cape.  Source NZ gov.

License to Pollute

Without consulting the local Maori, New Zealand government granted Petrobras a five-year permit for exploration of the Raukumara Basin, off the East Cape of New Zealand in June 2010.

Local Maori feel the pollution risk to the water and fish stocks in the regions is too great, should oil be found off the East Cape of New Zealand.

Ironically, Raukumara Basin sits between Kermadec Trench and Kermadec Ridge, and has an inherently unstable geology. FIRE-EARTH believes any oil-drilling in the exceptionally seismic area would most certainly prove disastrous for the entire region. See blog content for New Zealand earthquake forecasts.

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Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

Posted by feww on April 18, 2011

This is an update to an earlier post published on April 8, 2011

Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you

Places Most at Risk of Nuclear Disasters

Global

Nuclear power is harmful to the planet and all lifeforms. Any nuclear disaster striking anywhere on the planet has global implications.

Currently 32 countries operate nuclear power plants, 27 of which are building even more reactor units. Fifteen other countries that are currently without nuclear power  plan to build one or more plants.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (865)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, France, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

United States

Coming soon …

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each place, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-induced catastrophes such as war, as well as human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… , and other geophysical events.]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which those factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecasts.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina - Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Last Updated: April 20, 2011 at 02:58UTC

Posted in Europe nuclear disaster, US nuclear disaster | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

U.S. Tornadoes – Update 18 April

Posted by feww on April 18, 2011

Updated at 02:12 UTC

Deadly  tornado clusters devastate southern U.S., killing 50 injuring 500

Waves of tornadoes battering southern United States, killing about 50 people and injuring hundreds of others from Oklahoma through the South and on to the Atlantic Coast since Thursday, have carved swathes of destruction in their wake, with hundreds of homes left destroyed or severely damaged.

Combined Map of Reported Tornadoes, Severe Weather and Hail 14 – 17 April 2011


Source:  NWS/ Storm Prediction Center. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Tornado Reports: 248
Wind Reports/High: 434/5
Hail Reports/Large: 356/31
3-Day Total Reports: 1,038

In the worst tornado assault ever recorded, 248 twisters have devastated large areas in 14 states from Thursday through Saturday. A total of 1,038 tornadoes, wind gusts and hail events were reported, according to the logs kept at the Storm Prediction Center.


NC Tornado damage. Frame grab from AP video report. Video clip posted HERE

States of Emergency

  • Virginia.  Gov McDonnell has declared a state of emergency following widespread damage caused by powerful thunderstorms, which left at least six people dead in the central and southern parts of the state on Sunday, a report said.
  • North Carolina. Gov Perdue has declared a state of emergency for North Carolina because of the destruction caused by deadly storms and tornadoes across the state, reports said. Sever storms ripped through central North Carolina causing multiple fatalities and much destruction.
  • Alabama.  Gov Bentley is declaring a State of Emergency for all Alabama counties following severe weather which brought tornados, severe t-storms, hail and strong winds earlier today, a report said. At least one person was killed in
    • “This is a serious storm that has already caused significant damage across the South. I hope Alabamians take extreme caution while these storms move through,” said Bentley.
    • “There are confirmed reports of tornado touchdowns in the following Alabama counties:  Monroe, Greene, Marengo, Sumter, Tuscaloosa and Choctaw. Multiple injuries have been reported in Sumter, Greene and Marengo counties.” The report said.
    • “An apparent tornado struck Bellington Circle approximately 6 miles south of Linden [Marengo County.] Law enforcement confirmed 1 fatality and at least 4 injuries.” The National Weather Service reported.
  • Mississippi. “A State of Emergency has been declared for 14 Mississippi counties after tornadoes and high winds whipped through the state today, causing multiple injuries, shutting down I-20, ravaging homes and businesses and knocking out power to thousands.” Said a report.
  • Oklahoma.  Gov Fallin has declared a state of emergency in 26 Oklahoma counties, a report said. The declaration include the following counties: Atoka, Carter, Coal, Creek, Custer, Delaware, Harper, Johnston, Latimer, LeFlore, Lincoln, Love, Marshall, Murray, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Pittsburg, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington and Woodward.

From: 2011 Disaster Calendar – April

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Japan nuclear disaster to last nine more months

Posted by feww on April 17, 2011

NEW LEAKS MAY BE RAISING RADIATION in SEA

Nuclear disaster at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant may continue for another nine months: TEPCO

Tokyo Electric Power Company, the operator of Japan’s stricken nuclear power plant Fukushima Dai-ichi says it planned to reduce radiation leaks in 3 months and to cool the reactors within another six months, NHK reported. 

“This is the biggest crisis since the founding of our company,” TEPCO Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata said at a a news conference.

“Getting the nuclear plant under control, and the financial problems associated with that.” He added

“How we can overcome these problems is a difficult matter.”

The conference was broadcast by NHK amid reports that radiation levels in the seawater near Reactor 2 had risen to 6,500 times the legal limit on Friday, about 6 times higher than Thursday’s reading. TEPCO fears that the rise may be due to new leaks.

On April 12, Japanese authorities raised the measure of severity of the Fukushima NPP disaster to the maximum level of 7 on INES. (See below for details.)

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina - Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

  • Official Death Toll: ~ 14,000
  • Missing:  ~ 14,000
  • Homeless: At least 155,000
  • Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

Related Links

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Tornadoes, Storms Kill at least 27 in the US

Posted by feww on April 17, 2011

Updated at 08:57UTC

Carolinas Hit by up to 104 Twisters Saturday

229 Tornadoes reported since late Thursday: SPC

Tornadoes and storms have carved paths of destruction killing at least 27 people in seven states and injuring dozens more from Oklahoma through the South and on the Atlantic Coast since Thursday.



Click images to enlarge. See inset for dates.

State of Emergency

North Carolina‘s Gov Perdue has declared a state of emergency for North Carolina because of the destruction caused by deadly storms and tornadoes across the state, reports said.

Wake County officials have declared a State of Emergency on Saturday after  severe storms which  ripped through central North Carolina killed at least 3 people and left two dozen others seriously injured, a report said.

Cumberland County and the City of Fayetteville have both declared a state of emergency and a curfew has been declared from 9 p.m. until 6 a.m. in area affected.” Said a report.

At least one fatality and about 50 injuries have been reported as a result of the storms.

Tornado damage Raleigh, NC, April 16, 2011

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NOTICE: New Zealand Earthquake Forecasts

Posted by feww on April 16, 2011

Earthquake Forecasts for New Zealand Region

FIRE-EARTH Moderators have decided NOT to post specific earthquake forecasts for New Zealand Region until further notice.

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TC Errol

Posted by feww on April 16, 2011

Tropical Cyclone Errol Inching Toward Western Australia

Storm Details on April 16, 2011 at 00:00UTC

    • Position:  Near 11.6S 124.9E
    • Movement past 6 hrs:  – 320 degrees at 06 KTS
    • Accuracy: Position accurate to withing 60NM
    • Max sustaned winds: 50KT
    • Gusts: 65 KT
    • Source: JTWC

Source: Image from Japan Meteorological Agency satellite MTSAT-1R via Bureau of Meteorology.

Forecast Track

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Tornadoes, Severe Weather Continued across the US

Posted by feww on April 16, 2011

Multiple Tornadoes Sighted in Oklahoma and Kansas

Tornadoes and severe storms have claimed about a dozen lives, destroyed homes and school buildings; significant damage reported at Atoka and Tushka, Oklahoma with at least 30 people injured: Reports

  • Lightning knocked a tree into a home in Garland County, Arkansas, killing the two occupants.
  • Falling trees have killed at least four more people in Arkansas, police said.

At least 10 tornadoes touched down the central and southern plains on Thursday (local time), the National Weather Service (NWS) reported. More tornados and powerful thunderstorms expected to strike the south on Friday (see forecast map below).

Tornadoes were sighted  in Atoka, Johnston, Lincoln, Marshall, Murray, Osage, and Pushmataha counties in Oklahoma and in Chautauqua, Cowley and Saline counties in Kansas, NWS reported

“There were reports of significant damage to the Oklahoma communities of Atoka and Tushka. There were 86 reports of high winds with the top recording noted at 80 mph near Russellville in Pope County, Ark. There were also 122 reports of large hail with the largest stones measured at 4.25-inch diameter in Johnston, Murray, Pontotoc and Pushmataha counties in Oklahoma.”

Powerful Spring Storm System Slams the Central Gulf Coast Region with Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorm Winds and Large Damaging Hail

Severe weather threat is expected to move east today, affecting Atlantic Coast from Virginia to Georgia, NWS reported.


Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to enter NWS portal.


Atlanta, Georgia Radar – Base Reflectivity.  Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to update. 

States of Emergency

  • Alabama.  Gov Bentley is declaring a State of Emergency for all Alabama counties following severe weather which brought tornados, severe t-storms, hail and strong winds earlier today, a report said. At least one person was killed in
    • “This is a serious storm that has already caused significant damage across the South. I hope Alabamians take extreme caution while these storms move through,” said Bentley.
    • “There are confirmed reports of tornado touchdowns in the following Alabama counties:  Monroe, Greene, Marengo, Sumter, Tuscaloosa and Choctaw. Multiple injuries have been reported in Sumter, Greene and Marengo counties.” The report said.
    • “An apparent tornado struck Bellington Circle approximately 6 miles south of Linden [Marengo County.] Law enforcement confirmed 1 fatality and at least 4 injuries.” The National Weather Service reported.
  • Mississippi. “A State of Emergency has been declared for 14 Mississippi counties after tornadoes and high winds whipped through the state today, causing multiple injuries, shutting down I-20, ravaging homes and businesses and knocking out power to thousands.” Said a report.
  • Oklahoma.  Gov. Mary Fallin has declared a state of emergency in 26 Oklahoma counties, a report said. The declaration include the following counties: Atoka, Carter, Coal, Creek, Custer, Delaware, Harper, Johnston, Latimer, LeFlore, Lincoln, Love, Marshall, Murray, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Pittsburg, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington and Woodward.

From: 2011 Disaster Calendar – April

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