April 2011
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Archive for April, 2011

Navy Vessel Used Against Deep Sea Drilling Protesters

Posted by feww on April 15, 2011

Bloggers Down Under call it

“Gunboat Democracy”

When a government uses the military against protesters

No it wasn’t Egypt or Saudi Arabia this time, not even the tiny dictatorship of Bahrain using the military to suppress citizens freedom of speech or their right to demonstrate; it was the [allegedly] democratic government of New Zealand sending out a task force to threaten ordinary kiwis protesting against deep sea drilling off New Zealand coast.

The united front of te Whānau ā Apanui, Greenpeace and the flotilla opposing deep sea oil drilling is holding its position in the Raukūmara Basin as the HMNZS Pūkakī arrived after eight days of surveillance by an Air force Orion. Source: Greenpeace

In an act that would make the cruelest police state dictators fume with envy, New Zealand police and naval forces dispersed environmental activists and protesters opposed to deep sea oil drilling off New Zealand’s East Cape.

Petrobras, the Brazilian oil giant, ignoring the wishes of indigenous Maori, was attempting to carry out seismic test in the Raukumara Basin, when their work was disrupted by environmentalists.

New Zealand govt have since served notice that any protester blocking the “oil exploration off the East Cape would face fines of up to $10,000, a year in prison, or probably both,” a blog report said.

NZ ex-banker prime minister sends military against peaceful protest

High Noon in the Raukumara Basin as the naval inshore patrol vessel HMNZS Pukaki is sent to prevent environmentalists having their say.

“Tuesday 12^th April, 2011. We picked up an unexpected visitor steaming directly towards us at 20 knots – it was the Navy, with their 55m coastal patrol vessel HMNZS Pukaki.” Source: Vanessa Atkinson

Raukumara Basin

Map: Blocks offered under the offshore Northland and Raukumara Licensing Round. Source: PetroView®

The 25,000sqkm Raukumara Basin extends about 300km north of East Cape. Source NZ gov.

License to Pollute

Without consulting the local Maori, New Zealand government granted Petrobras a five-year permit for exploration of the Raukumara Basin, off the East Cape of New Zealand in June 2010.

Local Maori feel the pollution risk to the water and fish stocks in the regions is too great, should oil be found off the East Cape of New Zealand.

Ironically, Raukumara Basin sits between Kermadec Trench and Kermadec Ridge, and has an inherently unstable geology. FIRE-EARTH believes any oil-drilling in the exceptionally seismic area would most certainly prove disastrous for the entire region. See blog content for New Zealand earthquake forecasts.

Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Heavy Snow

Posted by feww on April 15, 2011

“A very active weather day,” NWS forecast

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has forecast the development of

Strong Tornadoes
Very Large Hail
Damaging Winds

Areas most likely to experience this activity include

W Arkansas
SE Kansas
Extreme SW Missouri
E Oklahoma
Extreme NE Texas

Severe storms also possible from the central Plains to the Mid-South.

Click image to enter NWS portal.

“A disturbance will emerge from the Four Corners region to the southern and central High Plains this afternoon, where it will begin a rapid intensification as it is fed by a strong surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected in the south-central Plains today with a strong possibility of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall is also possible.” NWS said.

Tornado Warning

Little Rock, AR, Base Reflectivity Radar. Click image to enlarge. Click here to update.

Click image to enlarge.

TEXAS Wildfires

Meanwhile, large wildfires continue to burn across portions of Texas. As of posting, 33 states are helping Texas to fight some 21 large to major wildfires.

Picture of the Swenson fire in Stonewall County taken on April 7, 2011. Photo is courtesy of the Texas Forest Service.

Red Flag Warnings

Food Prices Surge 36 pct

Posted by feww on April 15, 2011

Another 44 million people pushed into poverty

1.2 billion people living on less than $1.25 a day: World Bank

About 1.2 billion people live on less than $1.25 a day, the World Bank president estimates.

[NOTE: The true figures may exceed 2.5 billion. FIRE-EARTH]

“More poor people are suffering and more people could become poor because of high and volatile food prices,” said Zoellick.

“We have to put food first and protect the poor and vulnerable, who spend most of their money on food.”

So why don’t we?

Food price changes (Q1 2010 to Q1 2011)

Maize: 74%
Wheat: 69%
Palm oil: 55%
Soybeans: 36%
Beef: 30%
Rice: -2% (Source: World Bank)

Another 30% rise would force 50 more million or so below the extreme poverty line ($1.25 per day), World bank has warned.

World Bank Report Summary: Global food prices have increased substantially since mid-2010, as have prices in many developing countries. In this study we assess the poverty impact of the price changes between June and December 2010 in twenty-eight low and middle income countries. This is done by gathering detailed information on individual households’ food production and consumption levels for thirty-eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the impacts on household welfare. This study estimates that this sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people globally, but with considerably different impacts in different countries. The heterogeneity of these impacts is partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of global prices to local prices and partly to differences in households’ patterns of production and consumption. On balance, the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the number of poor and in the depth of poverty. We estimate that the average poverty change was 1.1 percentage points in low income countries and 0.7 percentage points in middle income countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling below the $1.25 per day extreme poverty line.

Full Report: Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices

Posted in agricultural commodities, food commodities, food production and consumption, household welfare | Tagged: extreme poverty line, food prices, Maize price, poverty, Rising Food Prices, Soybeans price | Leave a Comment »

TEXAS ON FIRE

Posted by feww on April 14, 2011

WILDFIRES CONSUME MORE THAN 1 MILLION ACRES IN TEXAS

EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER for PORTIONS of TEXAS, NEW MEXICO and OKLAHOMA: NWS Forecast

Texas Latest: 14 major fires consuming 19 counties throughout the state

Texas Wildfire Stats

[YTD Totals as of April 14, 2011 UTC]

No. of Fires: 5,354
Acres Burned: 1,041,187
Structures destroyed: 645
Source: TFSI SITUATION REPORT

LATEST WEATHER WARNING: High Impact Weather Across the U.S. Through Friday (NWS)

“A storm system originating in the central Rockies is forecast to intensify over the central Plains Thursday and Friday before moving northeastward through the western Great Lakes states on Saturday. It is expected to produce a variety of weather hazards across parts of the Central U.S., including severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening across the south central Plains, a possible tornado outbreak Friday afternoon in parts of western to middle Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama, continued critical fire weather conditions across the central and southern Rockies and High Plains, heavy wet snow across parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas northeastward to upper Michigan, and heavy rain—which will only exacerbate ongoing flooding—from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley and south to the Gulf Coast” Details …

Red Flag Warnings [Click here for latest reports]

URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM — 9:17 PM CDT WED APR 13, 2011
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE, DAVIS, AND APACHE MOUNTAINS,SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR, REEVES COUNTY AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, PERMIAN BASIN. AND MARFA AND STOCKTON PLATEAUS

Click image to enter NWS portal.

TEXAS FOREST SERVICE INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT: New large fires from yesterday

LUCAS, Stephens County: 400 acres, no estimated containment. Multiple structures were evacuated. The fire is located 12 miles southeast of Breckenridge.
SCHEZZOW, Kerr County. 400 acres, 50 percent contained. Two structures were threatened and saved; one outbuilding, one vehicle and one bobcat skid-steer were lost. The fire is located 22 miles west of Kerrville.
ENCINO, Tom Green County. 12,659 acres, 50 percent contained. Heavy airtankers and numerous ground resources assisted on this fire 13 miles west of San Angelo. Dozens of homes were saved.
COOPER MOUNTAIN RANCH, Kent County. 15,000 acres, no containment. Numerous homes, outbuildings and oil facilities are threatened. Evacuations did occur.
CANNON, Pecos County. 14000 acres, unknown containment. This complex of four fires is burning just south of Iraan. No evacuations or losses.
ROCKHOUSE, Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. 108,000 acres, 60 percent contained. 23 homes and 2 businesses were reported as destroyed in the Ft. Davis area.
SWENSON, Stonewall, King, and Knox counties. 103,384 acres, 80 percent contained. The fire is burning three miles north of Swenson.
ROPER, Brewster County. 40,000 acres, 95 percent containment. The fire is burning east of Alpine.
HICKMAN, Midland County. 16,500 acres, 98 percent contained. 34 homes were reported destroyed on this fire burning on the south side of Midland.
KILLOUGH, Garza County. 35,984 acres, 90 percent contained. 60 homes were saved and one destroyed on this fire six miles south of Post.
CAMP BOWIE, Brown County. 3,355 acres, 90 percent contained. The fire is burning on the Camp Bowie Military Reservation south of Brownwood.

Gov. Perry Visits the Devastated Areas

Perry has renewed fire disaster proclamation for Texas.

“As we witness devastation, we also witness the best in human nature – as exhibited in the heroism of men and women who run toward danger as everyone else flees – and the generosity of Texans opening their homes and hearts to those displaced by these fires,” said Gov Perry.

“The threat of wildfires is one we’ve lived with consistently for months, and I urge Texans to continue heeding all warnings from fire and local officials and to take whatever precautions necessary to minimize the risk of wildfire.”

Outdoor Burn Bans

191 Texas counties are reporting burn bans. Click image to enlarge.

U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather

Posted by feww on March 1, 2011

Brace for the Worst Ever

Climatic Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond …

NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.

Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

Flooding and fires, earthquakes and eruptions, deadly tornadoes and strong storms … are just some of the items you’ve ordered from the climate change quick menu!

Texas county prays for “divine intervention”

Tom Green County Commissioners “have resorted to asking their constituents to pray for rain, hoping divine intervention can alleviate the severe drought gripping much of the state and fueling wildfires that have scorched large swaths of ranchland,” a report said.

The Commissioners have issued a proclamation encouraging the local folks to pray for “divine intervention” by way of rain. “We certainly need it,” said County Judge Mike Brown.

More than 100 churches are being asked to participate.

Wildfires in Central Texas

The Killough and the Swenson fires burned in Texas on April 10, 2011, when MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite took this image. Source NASA-EO. Click images to enlarge.

Wildfires in SW Texas

The Rock House Fire, Brewster Fire and several other large fires were burning on April 10, 2011 when MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this image. Source NASA-EO.

Millions of Caterpillars Attack Bali, Indonesia

Posted by feww on April 13, 2011

Indonesian Island of Bali Declares a State of Emergency as Millions of Caterpillars Invade Trees

Bali, Indonesia. Bali’s capital Denpasar, as well as six other regencies (districts) of Buleleng, Jembrana, Gianyar, Klungkung, Tabanan and Karangasem have declared a state of emergency as caterpillars invaded the island, a report said.

Similar to the occurrence in East Java, Bali’s caterpillars aim at mango trees.”

In other regencies the caterpillars are less choosy and multiply in any old tree. ” Each tree is taken up by between 100 and 1,000 caterpillars.” Said the report.

“For the time being, the caterpillars have only invaded trees,” said Made Putra Suryawan, Bali’s Head f Agriculture, Plants and Food Agency.

“In Buleleng, each tree is occupied by between 200 and 1,000 caterpillars.

Red banded mango caterpillar: There are NO successful control method for the species.

Red banded mango caterpillar (Deanolis albizonalis). Source: Australia/ qld gov/via guam insects net

Tent Caterpillar. Source: Washington State University.

Yellow-Necked Caterpillar. Source: Purdue University/Dept of forestry and Natural Resources

Extreme fire danger, continued major flooding in the US

Posted by feww on April 13, 2011

Wildfires Consume 2 Million Acres*

Extreme fire danger in southern Plains, continued major flooding in north-central states: NWS

*Year-to-date total estimated by Fire-Earth

Click image to enter NWS portal.

Extreme risk of wildfires in southern Plains and continued major flooding, which is drowning the northern High Plains, has prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue dozens of Red Flag and flood warnings.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect through TUESDAY evening for

South-central and southeastern Colorado
The western half of New Mexico
Southwestern and south-central Nebraska
The western half of Kansas
The Oklahoma Panhandle
The Texas Panhandle and west Texas

Meanwhile, snow is forecast for “higher elevations of the Mountain West today with rain at lower levels,” NWS reported. ” Rain and thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley into southern Vermont and New Hampshire. There is a slight risk of severe weather in coastal Virginia and North Carolina.”

In Bent County, Colorado, a wildfire which started Saturday near Las Animas in a wooded area has expanded outside containment lines, burning about 9,000 acres and forcing evacuation of about 100 homes, the report said.

In northwest North Dakota, officials reported a minor (lightly-traveled) bridge on the Des Lacs River near Burlington washed out Monday afternoon. Monday evening, boils and leaks were reported by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Burlington Dam #1, upstream of Burlington on the Des Lacs River. Officials are greatly concerned about failure of the dam.

Local officials and support units are also watching the McGregor and White Earth dams, which are considered to be “high hazard” dams. National Weather Service forecasters at NOAA’s Bismarck office said melting of the record snowpack upstream has not yet begun in earnest. Runoff could exceed the capacities of primary outlet systems and cause spillway flows. [More...]

A 5-state area is facing some risk of severe weather development Thursday, Storm Prediction Center reported. The area covers

Eastern quarter of Kansas and Oklahoma
Extreme northeast Texas
Western half of Missouri
Western two-thirds of Arkansas

National Wildfire Stats

Texas Wildfires – YTD Total:

No. of Reported Fires: 5,339
Acres Burned: 983,187
Structures Lost: 659
Source: http://ticc.tamu.edu/Documents/Home/tx_sitrep.pdf

National Year-to-Date Report on Fires and Acres Burned by State [Data incomplete!]
for March 29, 2011

Click image to enlarge.

US Tornadoes – UPDATE

Posted by feww on April 12, 2011

Tornadoes: Nature’s Most Violent Storms

Oldest known photograph of a tornado

Image Source: National Weather Service (NWS) Collection
Location: South Dakota, 22 miles southwest of Howard
Photo Date: 1884 August 28

Tornado Stats – YtD

Tornadoes: 305 [as of April 11, 2011]
Hail: 1,963
Wind: 2,891

Fukushima Nuclear Plant Rattled by M6.3 Quake

Posted by feww on April 12, 2011

JAPAN MUST DECOMMISSION ALL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW !

WARNING: JPTRMT1

Another Strong Shock Rattles Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

The latest shock measuring 6.3Mw struck about 53km SW of the crippled Fukushima NPP, and 29km west of Iwaki city at a depth of 10km.

EQ details release by JMA

Occurred at (JST)	Latitude (degree)	Longitude (degree)	Depth	Magnitude	Region Name
14:07 JST 12 Apr 2011	37.0N	140.7E	10 km	6.3	Fukushima-ken Hamadori

Distances (USGS)

29 km (18 miles) W (280°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
70 km (43 miles) S (172°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
83 km (52 miles) N (6°) from Mito, Honshu
177 km (110 miles) NNE (25°) from TOKYO

Earthquake Location Map: JMA

Earthquake Location Map: USGS

Note: JPTRMT1 is an acronym for Japan Trench Megathrust Earthquake No.1

Japan Nuclear Disaster Update

Japanese authorities have finally raised the measure of severity of the Fukushima NPP disaster to the maximum level of 7 on INES, officials said in an NHK telecast.

Japanese government’s Nuclear Safety Commission had earlier revealed that the amount of radioactive iodine 131 released from Fukushima NPP had reached 10,000 terabecquerels per hour, for several hours at one stage, a level that prompted classification of the breach as a Major Accident [level 7 on INES, e.g, Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986, see below,] Kyodo news reported.

The radiation level has subsequently fallen to about one terabecquerel per hour, a report said.

“We have upgraded the severity level to seven as the impact of radiation leaks has been widespread from the air, vegetables, tap water and the ocean,” said a spokesman for Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA).

Radiation leaks from the stricken nuclear plant have not stopped completely and could exceed the Chernobyl release 25 years ago, an TEPCO official said, NHK reported.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

Official Death Toll: 13,133
Missing: 14,345
Homeless: At least 155,000
Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment, July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina - Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted here is subject to numerous variable factors.
Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50 months.
Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
The Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

M6.3 Quake Strikes 77km ESE Tokyo

Posted by feww on April 12, 2011

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED: JPTRMT1

JAPAN MUST DECOMMISSION ALL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW !

Strong Earthquake Strikes Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan

The 6.3Mw quake,which occurred at 08:08 JST (Monday, April 11, 2011 at 23:08 UTC), was epicentered at 35.4ºN, 141.0ºE and struck at a depth of about 30km, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said.

The quake reportedly swayed buildings in Tokyo and shut down runways at Narita international airport.

Yesterday’s 7.1Mw quake killed at least 1 person and knock out power to about a quarter of a million households, Japanese authorities reported earlier.

Earthquake Location Map

Note: JPTRMT1 is an acronym for Japan Trench Megathrust Earthquake No.1

Japan Nuclear Disaster

Meanwhile, Tokyo Electric power Company (TEPCO) announced that its technicians were fighting a fire near Reactor 4 at the stricken Fukushima NPP earlier today, amid reports that the country was raising its nuclear disaster alert to the maximum level.

Japanese government’s Nuclear Safety Commission has now revealed that the amount of radioactive iodine 131 released from Fukushima NPP had reached 10,000 terabecquerels per hour, for several hours at one stage, a level that classifies the breach as a Major Accident [level 7 on INES, e.g, Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986, see below,] Kyodo news reported.

Iodine 131 is believed to have caused the high incidence of thyroid cancer among children living near the Chernobyl plant when the 1986 nuclear disaster occurred.

Reactor 3 at TEPCO’s crippled Fukushima Daiichi NPP is seen in this frame grab from a video clip by an unmanned helicopter on April 10, 2011. Image by TEPCO/Handout/ via Reuters

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

Official Death Toll: 13,127
Missing: 14,348
Homeless: At least 155,000
Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.