Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response could occur by early 2016

Archive for May, 2011

Slave Lake Fires (Update 3): The Ghost Town

Posted by feww on May 18, 2011

The Grass in Slave Lake Has Turned Black

Wildfires consumed 2,000 hectares of Slave Lake destroying or damaging 1,000 buildings

“[Many hundreds of] homes or businesses have been destroyed by fire,” said mayor Karina Pillay-Kinnee. “There are hundreds more on top of that damaged.”

The city is a site of utter destruction with everything burned down, melted, turned into rubble and ash. The city looks like a miniature version of Hiroshima after the atom bomb was dropped on her.

“This is a first time experience for us,” the mayor said. “We had multiple fires on either end of the community. What I’m thankful for at this point is we have no loss of life.”

Neither the Hiroshima residents, nor the uranium miners and the coolies, had any chance, however.


Port Radium, Great Bear Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada.

Some 50 percent of the homes in the SE section of the city have been destroyed, Slave Lake Mayor Karina Pillay-Kinnee was quoted as saying. Many building were also lost in other parts, especially in the NW quadrant.

“When you turn the corner and whole subdivisions are gone—you don’t even recognize your community anymore, and that startled me,” the mayor said.

“I don’t know when in history we’ve evacuated at least 7,000 people in such a short period of time,” said Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach.

“We’ve had large grass fires, we’ve had forest fires, but not so many homes lost.”

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Posted in Climate Change, Climate change dividends, environment, Human Impact on Nature, human induced climate change | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Mount Aso Explodes

Posted by feww on May 18, 2011

Japan’s Largest Active Volcano Erupts

Mount Aso exploded on Tuesday May 17 at 19:09UTC, prompting Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) to raise the volcanic alert level for the volcano to 2.

Officials in Kumamoto Prefecture, home to the volcano, have imposed a 1 km exclusion zone around the 1,060m high Mt Naka, also warning of ejecta hazards, Kyodo news agency reported.

The central cone group of Aso hosts five peaks: Eboshi, Kishima, Naka, Neko, and Taka.

The explosive eruption followed minor activity  at the volcano on Friday and a small eruption on Sunday.

Another small  eruption on Monday resulted in a column of smoke and ash ejected 500m above the summit at about 10:am local time.


Mount Aso’s Naka dake volcano in Aso Kujū National Park, Kumamoto Prefecture, Kyushu, Japan, 17 Aug 2009.  Credit:  Igorberger

Current Volcanic Warnings (Japan, Island of Kyushu)


Asosan’s Mt Naka is at warning level 2:  Do not approach the crater. Mt Kirishima and Mt Sakurajima are currently at warning level 3: Do not approach the volcano  Source: JMA (copyrighted, for educational use only.)

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Slave Lake Fires (Update 2): 40% of the City Destroyed

Posted by feww on May 17, 2011

Alberta emergency at max level: 4

116 wildfires burning in Alberta with 34 blazes raging out of control

“We’ve burned about 55,000 hectares of real estate already.”

The emergency response level was raised to the maximum level of four, indicating a “governmentwide, sustained response,”  the first time since the mega deluge devastated southern Alberta in 2005.


Photo Credit: Shane O’Brien, Reader Photo, edmontonjournal. Photo uploaded by  Shannon DoS Santos: “The Slave Lake fire devastated my family there. These pictures should not have been taken just an hour after the fire wiped out my brother’s home on 6th Ave. He snuck down the hill from the evacuation spot and took these pictures. He lost everything and is still trying to find out what to [do] as they have been evacuated from several other areas.”

“We’ve burned about 55,000 hectares of real estate already.” Sustainable Resources Development Minister Mel Knight said. 

City Hall, the local radio station,  hundreds of homes, businesses, cars, trucks, campers, motorcycles, everything burned.

In the upmarket Slave Lake’s southeast at least 200 properties, “ranging in price from $300,000 to $500,000″ were destroyed, a report said.

The fires have also forced road closures, halted rail transport, and stopped oil operations in northern Alberta, reports say.

Provincewide Emergency

Slave Lake and several surrounding towns and communities have declared states of emergency, however, the government has not yet issued a provincewide declaration, said Alberta’s Municipal Affairs Minister Hector Goudreau.

Wild Assumptions

“It’s going to take a couple years to rebuild the town, there’s no doubt.” Mr Goudreau declared.

What’s happened to Slave Lake is pretty awful, of course, and people need shelter.

However, the Minister seems to be basing his estimate on the wild assumption that there would be no other disasters occurring in Alberta, or in the rest of the country for that matter, to affect the town’s rebuilding schedule.

The human-enhanced natural events that are about to unfold in Canada, North America, and indeed throughout the world, may unpleasantly surprise the Minister. 

Alberta Fires – Satellite Images

Click images to enlarge


Download largest image (5 MB, JPEG)


These images were acquired by MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite. Top and middle images were taken on May 16, 2o11, bottom image on May 15. Source: NASA-EO. Download largest  image (3 MB, JPEG). Click images to enlarge.

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Vicksburg, Mississippi Faces Flood Invasion

Posted by feww on May 17, 2011

Water level at Vicksburg 5 inches above the 1927 record of 56.2 feet

The river in Vicksburg is forecast to crest at 57.5 feet, 14.5 feet above flood level,  by Thursday.

About 2.3 million acres of land have already been  inundated in central Mississippi, according to FIRE-EARTH estimates, which are based on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data.


An aerial view of the Vicksburg Harbor, which is located on an arm of the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, Mississippi, USA. The harbor is located north of the main part of the city. View is to the west-northwest. Date: 20 April 1999. Source:  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Siege of a different kind

Vicksburg (pop: 26,410) was the scene of a 47-day Union army siege in 1863 when Major General Ulysses S. Grant’s Union army finally forced its surrender on July 4.

In 1894, Coca-Cola was first bottled in Vicksburg by a local confectioner, Joseph Biedenharn.

Thousands of Mississippi and Louisiana residents have already evacuated, and thousands more will evacuate, as a silent tsunami on moves south through Mississippi and Louisiana.

Upstream, the swollen Mississippi River has already inundated hundreds of homes and millions of acres of farmland across 5 states: (Southern) Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Arkansas.

Morganza Floodway Opens – Satellite Image


On May 14, 2011, the U.S. Army Engineers opened the Morganza Floodway to relieve the pressure  along the Mississippi River in Louisiana. A day later, at 11:20 am CDT, ALI on NASA’s EO-1 satellite captured this photo-like  image of the Floodway. Source: NASA-EO. Click Image to enlarge.
Download largest image (4 MB, JPEG) 


This aerial photo was taken by the Army Engineers on May 14, shortly after water was released through the floodgates of Morganza Spillway. Source: NASA-EO


Aerial photo was taken by the Army Engineers on May 14, several hours after water was released through the floodgates of Morganza Spillway. Source: The Army Engineers.

Key Details (from previous posts)

  • Army Engineers Quote of the Day: “It’s a historic day, not only for the entire Mississippi River, but for the state of Louisiana.” ~ Corps spokesman Col Ed Fleming.
  • The Mississippi and its tributaries have extensively flooded large areas upstream
  • At least 3 million acres of cropland in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas have already been inundated as the tsunami of floodwaters on the Mississippi raged south.
  • The Morganza Spillway is located 45 miles NW Baton Rouge.
  • Morganza Floodway was Built in 1954 to relieve flood pressure on Mississippi River
  • The giant structure is 20 miles long, with 125 gates which could release up to 600,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfps) or 17,000,000 liters/sec
  • A single gate releases about 10,000 cfpc
  • Raging Mississippi River forced Morganza floodgate to be opened for the first time since 1973.
  • About 25,000 people and more than 10,000 buildings may be affected by intentional flooding.
  • About 3,000 sq miles of low-lying swamp and cropland are expected to be submerged under up to 20 ft of floodwater for several weeks
  • Army Engineers say if the spillway was not opened, New Orleans could be inundated by 20ft of floodwater.
  • Morganza was the third of the Mississippi River floodways to be opened this month (the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway and the Bonnet Carre Spillway were opened earlier in May.)
  • “Today’s the first day in the history of our nation that we have had three floodways open.” Col Fleming said.
  • Today’s the first major alarm day in our history that we were forced to have three floodways opened simultaneously: FIRE-EARTH
  • Louisiana’s Cajun country is expected to be inundated by up to 20ft as  floodwater moves south.
  • A video of the opening of the Morganza Floodway is posted online here.

Morganza Floodway Travel Times


Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to view the original size. Source: The Army Corps of Engineers. [Note:  The image is dated May 12, 2011. The travel times should be adjusted accordingly]

Potential Inundation Map (Scenario 1a)


Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to view the original size. Source: The Army Corps of Engineers. [See inset for details.]

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Oil spill in NW Alberta

Posted by feww on May 16, 2011

Image of the week:

Major pipeline ruptures in Western Canada

28, 000 barrels of oil swamps a wetland area near native community at Evi, Alberta


Rainbow Pipeline’s oil spill, the worst Alberta oil spill since 1975, dumped at least 28, 000 barrels of oil into a wetland area at Evi, 12 km (7.5 miles) from Little Buffalo, Alberta, Canada on May 5, 2011. Photograph by: Greenpeace/ via edmontonjournal

The spill has reportedly caused the death of dozens of beavers and waterfowls.  Residents of the village of Little Buffalo have complained of dizziness and nausea, caused by the strong, obnoxious odor.

“In 2006, the line ruptured 10 km (6 miles) south of Slave Lake, Alberta, spilling 7,500 barrels of oil. Investigators said stress-corrosion cracking, fatigue cracking and external coating failure combined to cause the leak,” said a report.

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Slave Lake Burning – Update 1

Posted by feww on May 16, 2011

Hundreds of buildings consumed by forest fires in Slave Lake

Entire town forced to evacuate: Many of the 7,000 residents “trapped

Mayoral Quote of the Day:  “It’s incredible how quickly things can change.”


Slave Lake City Hall burns. Photo Credit:  Staff at 92.7 Lake FM, the local radio station which was also consumed by fire.

Some 84 fires are burning as of Sunday morning, including 29 burning out of control: Alberta govt.

Local Emergency Notices:

  •  May 15 at 9:30 PM -  Full evacuation of Town of Slave Lake ordered
  • 12:45pm Evacuation for entire Southshore has been ordered. All residents must register at Northern Lakes College.

The Road Out of Slave Lake

“The winds just keep fanning it hotter and hotter and hotter, and the wind’s not slowing down. I’m scared for the people that are in Slave Lake right now,” said Mandy Jeworski, 27, who fled her home west of Slave Lake Sunday afternoon,  taking this photo on her way out. (Credit: Mandy Jeworski/via Globe and Mail).

“Meanwhile, flames blocked all but one road, trapping many residents in the town and leaving officials to urge people to simply flee to wide open parking lots or beaches, and hope the fire doesn’t reach them. Traffic along the one highway was slow, as residents navigated through thick smoke amid waning daylight Sunday evening.” Said a report.

“I tell you the situation there is critical. It’s very critical. We’re doing everything we can,” said Mel Knight, Alberta’s Minister of Sustainable Resource Development (!), who’s also responsible for forest fire response.

“Fire has breached the town of Slave Lake boundary along the southern portion. Please move towards large green areas, beaches or large parking lots like Walmart, Canadian Tire, or the Sawridge Mall parking lot,” a notice posted on Sunday evening said.

The fire conditions are expected to deteriorate Monday, as higher temperatures, sunny skies and wind gusts of up to 70 km/h is forecast, the report said.

“The challenge right now is we’re expecting increased winds and the temperature is expected to increase,” said Karina Pillay-Kinnee, the mayor of Slave Lake.  “It’s incredible how quickly things can change.”

Alberta Govt Notices:

Status of major fires at 2 p.m. Sunday:

  • Town of Slave Lake and MD of Lesser Slave River 124 Two separate wildfires are out of control and burning approximately 2,000 hectares. Both the Town of Slave Lake and the Municipal District of Lesser Slave River have declared States of Emergency. Sunday afternoon, an evacuation order for south shore communities east of – and including – Canyon Creek was issued by the Municipal District (780-849-4888; please refer to http://www.md124.ca for road closure information). Evacuees are encouraged to register at Northern Lakes College in the Town of Slave Lake.
  • Loon River First Nation
    A State of Emergency is in effect for the community, located 7 kilometres from the town of Red Earth Creek. A 16,000-hectare fire is out of control and has closed Highway 88 through the community. An evacuation alert is in effect and the reception centre is established at St. Isidore Community Hall. As well, clean-up operations at Plains Midstream Canada’s Rainbow pipeline release site have been suspended due to the fire.
  • Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
    A 16,000-plus hectare wildfire is out of control in the Richardson backcountry area and burning across the Athabasca River. The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo’s Emergency Operations Centre has been activated and RCMP are conducting evacuations of the area.
  • Clearwater County
    Five fires totalling about 200 hectares are burning north of Rocky Mountain House. Crimson Lake Provincial Park and a privately owned campground in the Rocky Mountain House area were evacuated Saturday due to a wildfire approximately two kilometres away.

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Slave Lake on Fire

Posted by feww on May 16, 2011

Extreme Fire Conditions in Alberta

State of Emergency Declared: 1,000 people have been ordered to evacuate their homes near  Slave Lake

The two wildfires near Slave Lake are said to be the worst of 70 blazes that are raging throughout the Canadian province.


Wildfires raging near Slave lake,  Alberta, Canada May 15.  Slave Lake is located 250km north of Edmonton. Photos courtesy of Mike Kapusta) via CTV.

The two raging wildfires, fueled by dry weather and high winds, have so far consumed up to a dozen structures, sores of vehicles, an estimated 500 hectares of forest area and destroyed power lines, forcing a mass exodus in Slave Lake and prompting the authorities to declare a state of emergency. 

“Hundreds and hundreds of people have loaded up their vehicles with anything they can carry . . . and they are leaving,” an eyewitness told CTV News Channel late Sunday. “It’s just a traffic jam.”  More …

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Louisiana Braces as Morganza Floodway Opens

Posted by feww on May 15, 2011

Mississippi River Genie Out of  Spillway?

Floodwater rising upstream in Vicksburg neighborhoods at 2 ft per hr

Army Engineers opened one of the 125 floodgates at the Morganza Spillway 45 miles NW of Baton Rouge on Saturday, inundating nearby fields.

About 3,000 sq miles of low-lying swamp and cropland are expected to be submerged under up to 20 ft of floodwater released through the spillway.


Morganza Floodway moments after one of its 125 floodgates were opened on Saturday. Frame grab from an official (?) video.

Mississippi River Floodways


Source: Mississippi River Commission Map

Key Details:

  • Army Engineers Quote of the Day: “It’s a historic day, not only for the entire Mississippi River, but for the state of Louisiana.” ~ Corps spokesman Col Ed Fleming.
  • The Mississippi and its tributaries have extensively flooded large areas upstream
  • At least 3 million acres of cropland in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas have already been inundated as the tsunami of floodwaters on the Mississippi raged south.
  • The Morganza Spillway is located 45 miles NW Baton Rouge.
  • Morganza Floodway was Built in 1954 to relieve flood pressure on Mississippi River
  • The giant structure is 20 miles long, with 125 gates which could release up to 600,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfps) or 17,000,000 liters/sec
  • A single gate releases about 10,000 cfpc
  • Raging Mississippi River forced Morganza floodgate to be opened for the first time since 1973.
  • About 25,000 people and more than 10,000 buildings may be affected by intentional flooding.
  • About 3,000 sq miles of low-lying swamp and cropland are expected to be submerged under up to 20 ft of floodwater for several weeks
  • Army Engineers say if the spillway was not opened, New Orleans could be inundated by 20ft of floodwater.
  • Morganza was the third of the Mississippi River floodways to be opened this month (the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway and the Bonnet Carre Spillway were opened earlier in May.)
  • “Today’s the first day in the history of our nation that we have had three floodways open.” Col Fleming said.
  • Today’s the first major alarm day in our history that we were forced to have three floodways opened simultaneously: FIRE-EARTH
  • Louisiana’s Cajun country is expected to be inundated by up to 20ft as  floodwater moves south.

Related Links

Global Mega Disasters

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Gobi Desert Dust Storms: Major Mechanism for Mega Disasters

Posted by feww on May 14, 2011

MAY YOU LIVE IN CHANGING TIMES!

Thick Plumes of Sand and Dust Continue to Blow Out of Gobi Desert Choking East Asia

The Gobi Desert Pictorial Disaster Calendar: Satellite images of ongoing severe sand and dust storms over East Asia

Gobi Dust over the Sea of Japan


Thick plumes of dust from Gobi Desert covered the Sea of Japan on May 13, 2011, when MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite took this photo-like image.


Massive plumes of sand and dust blew out of the Gobi Desert on May 11 moving toward northeastern China, and covering the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning the next day when MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite took this image. The visibility in the region was reportedly reduced to about 1,000 meters (3,000 feet). 

Gobi Desert Sand and Dust Storms Plague East Asia


For a second time in 12 days, large plumes of sand and dust blew out of the Gobi Desert and spread across the Mongolia-China border. MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite took this photo-like image on May 11, 2011.


Sand and dust storms from the Gobi Desert blew across China covering the Yellow Sea in late April and early May 2011. MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on May 1. 2011.


Gobi Desert dust plumes  blew eastward in late April 2011.  MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this natural-color image on April 29, 2011.

Fast-moving sand from Gobi Desert reaches as far as east coast of Japan


A true color image of North China Plain, Shandong Peninsula and the Bo Haitaken was taken by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite as sand  from Gobi Desert blew across the region. Source: NASA E-O.   Download large image (3 MB, JPEG) – Image acquired November 11, 2010


A dust storm that blew through Asia’s Gobi Desert on November 10, 2010, quickly intensified as the day wore on. When the MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image at 1:50 p.m. Beijing time (5:50 UTC), the dust plumes were considerably thicker than they had been just two hours earlier. Smaller dust plumes also appeared north of the Mongolia-China border. Source of image and caption: NASA E-O.


The dust from Gobi Desert passed over the East China Sea, and the Sea of Japan on November 12, 2010, when MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite took this image. “A veil of dust forms an arc hundreds of kilometers long, and extends from the Yellow Sea to the northern Sea of Japan. Thick dust also blows over the nation of Japan. In the northeast, clouds hide parts of the dust plume. Although skies appear mostly dust-free over the Korean Peninsula, weather reports from November 11 and 12 reported widespread dust over Seoul, the location of the Group of 20 summit.” Source of image and caption: NASA E-O. Download large image (7 MB, JPEG).

Click images to enlarge.  (Source of images: NASA-EO)

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Mississippi River Flooding: Morganza Floodway to open Saturday

Posted by feww on May 14, 2011

From a source of life to … in 150 years

Engineers to open key floodway to avert flooding in Baton Rouge and New Orleans

Louisiana state officials have confirmed that the Army Engineers would open the Morganza Spillway by early Saturday evening (CDT), a report said.

The move is intended to avert flooding in Louisiana’s two largest cities, Baton Rouge and New Orleans; however, it could inundate  many thousands of homes and large tracts of crops.

Flooding in Atchafalaya basin is expected to exceed20 feet, affecting about 25,000 people, more than 10,000 buildings and up to 20,000 acres of cropland.

Mississippi River


The largest river in North America, the Mississippi River flows 2,340 mi (3,765 km) from its source at Lake Itasca in the Minnesota North Woods, through the midcontinental United States, the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain, and the Louisiana Delta. “’Mississippi’ is an Ojibwa (Chippewa) word meaning great river or gathering of waters—an appropriate name because the river basin, or watershed, extends from the Allegheny Mountains in the eastern United States to the Rocky Mountains, including all or parts of 31 states and 2 Canadian provinces. The river basin measures 1.85 million mi2 (4.76 million km2), covering about 40 percent of the United States and about one-eighth of North America.” Mississippi River has the world’s third largest watershed area and seventh average discharge rate. Source: USGS

Morganza Spillway – Satellite Images


Flooded Morganza Spillway.  May5, 1973. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (2 MB, JPEG)

False color images using near-infrared, red, and green wavelengths. The top image taken by Landsat 1;  bottom image from Landsat 2.  Source: NASA-EO


Morganza Spillway area Sans flooding, 1977. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (2 MB, JPEG)

Atchafalaya River is forecast to  crest at between 12 and 13 feet at Morgan City on May 23,  if the floodway is opened, breaking a previous record crest  10.6 feet, which was in 1973, a report said.

“They’ve still not officially made a decision on whether or when they will open the spillway, but the Corps of Engineers did tell me today that there are at 1.423 million cubic feet per second at Red River Landing and they are likely to get to 1.5 (million cubic feet) by [Saturday] evening and they will operate that system so that they will not allow that flow to exceed 1.5 through the Baton Rouge area,” Jindal said.

“The decision to open the Morganza Floodway relies on current and projected river flows and levee conditions, river currents and potential effects on navigation and revetments, extended rain and stage forecasts, and the duration of high river stages. When river flows at the Red River Landing are predicted to reach 1.5 million cubic feet per second and rising, the Corps considers opening the Morganza Floodway.” The Army Corps said.  The Army Engineers said the flow rates were 1.449 million cubic feet per second at 7:00am CDT on Friday, May 13, 2011.

Mississippi River Commission Map


Click images to enlarge.

Lower Mississippi Valley Division and  Mississippi River Commission Map

Mississippi River Floodways

 Morganza Floodway


Morganza floodway as a substitute for the East Atchafalaya floodway that was originally planned for in the 1928 Flood Control Act. Governed by a 3,900-foot long and a 125-bay intake structure, the floodway is designed to divert 600,000 cfs from the Mississippi River during the project design flood. The Morganza floodway is operated when the Mississippi River flows below Morganza are projected to exceed 1,500,000 cfs, thereby assuring that flows between Morganza and Bonnet Carré remain at or below 1,500,000 cfs. The Morganza floodway, completed in 1953, has only been operated during the 1973 flood. Source: The MR & T Flooways Project – Mississippi River Commission 1973 .

Estimated Cost of Damage: $5billion [FIRE-EARTH estimate, as of posting]

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Two tornadoes target Iowan town

Posted by feww on May 13, 2011

Town of Lenox Reports “Significant Damage”

Buildings leveled, roofs blown off and the debris covered the small town.

At least 35 blocks in the small Iowan town of Lenox (pop: 1,407) in Taylor County  received some damage, reports say.


Lenox, IA. EF1 tornado caused damage to homes. Source: NWS/Des Moines

The first tornado was an EF0 with a peak wind of about 80MPH (width of 0.3mile; path of 0.6mile) , and the second one an EF1, with more fierce winds of 105MPH (width of 0.3mile; path of 1.2mile) . There were NO fatalities or serious injuries reported, NWS said.

Taylor County was declared a disaster are after the two tornadoes struck, increasing the state’s 2011 tornado tally to 30.

Severe whether continued in Iowa Thursday night, with  3-in diameter hail attacking  western Iowa counties of Monona and Woodbury, a report said.


Image above shows the severe thunderstorm that spawned the EF0 tornado near Sharpsburg in northeastern Taylor County, Iowa at 4:22 pm on May 11. “Note the hook right over Sharpsburg.” Source NWS. Click images to enlarge.


This image shows the severe thunderstorm that spawned the EF1 tornado in western parts of Lenox, IA at 4:51 p.m.

The Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – Quick Chart

EF0: 65 TO 85 MPH
EF1: 86 TO 110 MPH
EF2: 111 TO 135 MPH
EF3: 136 TO 165 MPH
EF4: 166 TO 200 MPH
EF5: Wind speeds greater than 200 MPH

The damage contour map and details of the Lenox tornadoes are posted HERE.

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2011 Disasters

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Fukushima NPP: “There must be a large leak”

Posted by feww on May 12, 2011

High levels of radiation detected near Fukushima Reactor 1

Water level in Reactor 1 reactor vessel has dropped 5 meters below operating level

TEPCO technicians at Fukushima Nuclear Plant discovered earlier today that water level in the Reactor 1 pressure vessel had dropped 5 meters below the designated operating level, or  more than one meter below the base of the uranium fuel rods, indicating a large volume of water was leaking into the containment building.


NRC schematic drawing of Containment Building and Basic Internals

“There must be a large leak,” Junichi Matsumoto, a senior manager at TEPCO told a news conference.

“The fuel pellets likely melted and fell, and in the process may have damaged [...] the pressure vessel itself and created a hole.”

Fukushima prefecture officials have revealed that the radiation level rose to 1,015 mircrosieverts per hour on Saturday, NHK reported.

“One hour of exposure to this amount of radiation is equivalent to the permissible amount of radiation an ordinary person receives in one year. It is about twice the level that requires power companies to notify the government of an emergency situation.” Said the report.

[Note:  Single radiation dose of 2,000 millisieverts (200,000 millirems) and above causes serious illness. See also exposure list below.]

TEPCO raised the alarm, after noticing that the water in the pressure vessel had not risen despite pumping in 150 tons of of water daily to cool the reactor core.

The technicians  have pumped a total of about 10,400 tonnes of water into the reactor so far, a report said.

TEPCO says temperatures at the bottom of the containment building are between 100 and 120 degrees Celsius, suggesting that the damaged fuel rods have melted and fallen through the reactor vessel and into the bottom of the reactor building, where they are being cooled down for now.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (865)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, France, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Half-life of some radioactive elements

[NOTE: Half-life is the time taken for a radioactive substance to decay by half.]

  • Cesium-134 ~ 2  years
  • Cesium-137 ~ 30 years
  • Iodine-131 ~ 8 days
  • Plutonium-239 ~ 24,200 years
  • Ruthenium-103 ~ 39 days [Ruthenium is a fission product of uranium-235.]
  • Ruthenium-106 ~ 374 days
  • Strontium-90 ~ 28.85 years  [Strontium-90 is a product of nuclear fission and is found in large amounts in spent nuclear fuel and in radioactive waste from nuclear reactors.]
  • Uranium-234 ~  246,000 years
  • Uranium-235 ~ 703.8  million years
  • Uranium-238  ~ 4.468 billion years

What is a lethal dose of radiation from a single Exposure?

Studies of the 1945 atomic bombing at Hiroshima and Nagasaki show that 100 percent of victims whose bodies were exposed to 600,000 millirems (6,000 mSv) died from radiation. About 50 percent of victims who received  450,000 millirems (4,500 mSv) of radiation also died.

(Note: Rem is a unit of ionizing radiation equal to the amount that produces the same damage to humans as one roentgen of high-voltage x-rays.  Source: MIT)

1 rem = 10 mSv  (1 Sv = 100 rem)

Background Radiation in millirems per year (mrem/yr)

  • Average background radiation (US):  300
  • Higher altitudes (eg. Denver): 400

“Safe Levels” of Radiation (U.S.)

Limits above natural background radiation levels (average 300 millirems per year) and medical radiation:

  • Occupation Limit: Maximum of 5,000  (the limit for a worker using radiation)
  • Average Natural Background: 300

[Note: Lifetime cumulative exposure should be limited to a person's age multiplied by 1,000 millirems, e.g., a 70-year-old person, 70,000 millirems.]

Adults

  • Max single dose for an adult: 3,000
  • Annual total dose: 5,000

Under 18

  • Max single dose for a person aged under 18 years: 300 millirems (whole body equivalent)
  • Annual total exposure: 500

Fetal Exposure

  • Maximum limit for fetal exposure during gestation period:  50 millirems per month above background levels

Medical

  • Single Chest X-ray (the whole body equivalent): 2 millirem

Air Travel

  • Coast-to-coast US round trip flight: 12 millirems

Megaquake and Tsunami Death Toll

The latest figures released by the authorities put the number of dead at about  12,000 with 16,000 people still listed as missing.

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Mississippi River breaks flood record at Natchez

Posted by feww on May 12, 2011

Mississippi River Tops 58.65 feet (17,88m) at Natchez

America’s largest river to crest at  64feet (19.51m) on May 21

Having broken the previous record of 58.04 ft set on February 21, 1937, America’s largest river is expected to crest at a whopping 64feet (19.51m; flow rate of 2,380kcfs ) on May 21.

Kcfs: Thousand cubic feet per second – multiply by 28,317 to get liters per second

Historical Crests
(1) 58.04 ft on 02/21/1937
(2) 57.03 ft on 04/24/2008
(3) 56.70 ft on 05/13/1973
(4) 56.60 ft on 05/04/1927
(5) 56.30 ft on 03/26/1997
(6) 55.70 ft on 05/31/1983
(7) 55.30 ft on 04/26/1922
(8) 55.20 ft on 04/29/1945
(9) 54.60 ft on 04/23/1979
(10) 54.50 ft on 06/05/1929


Map of Mississippi River Basin. Source: University of Missouri

The Mississippi River Flooding Impact

So far the flooding has :

  • Forced tens of thousands of people along the river and its tributaries to  evacuate
  • Inundated dozens of river towns
  • Swamped about 3.5 million acres of farmland (at least 3 million acres in three states of  Arkansas  Mississippi, Tennessee)
  • Put in need of shelter tens of thousands of farm animals
  • Threatens  New Orleans and Baton Rouge (Morganza Spillway in Louisiana may have to be opened to relive some of the pressure)
  • Threatens to swamp more than 3 million acres of farm and wetlands in Louisiana

The flooding has also shut down  16 casinos in  Mississippi  (a silver lining?) threatening to swamp another two in Vicksburg, according to Mississippi Gaming Commission, where the river is expected to crest at 57.5ft (flow rate: 2,340kcfs) on May 19.

Related Links

Global Mega Disasters

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Deadly Quake Hits Spanish Town

Posted by feww on May 12, 2011

Deadly earthquake strikes town in SE Spain, killing  a dozen people,  injuring many

A magnitude 5.2 quake struck about 6 km SW of the historic town of Lorca (pop 86,119)  in Spain’s Murcia region at 16:47 UTC  on May 11, killing at least a dozen people and injuring many more.

Earthquake Location Map


Click image to enlarge. Source: EMSC

The earthquake was epicentered at 37.65ºN, 1.76ºW and struck at a depth of  10 km, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC) said. The mainshock was preceded by an M4.2 foreshock, and followed by at least a half dozen smaller aftershocks.

High Casualty figures

According to USGS the quake struck at a shallow depth of about 1km (0.6 mile), which could explain the high casualty figures.

Another reason may be the fact that the old part of the town, sections of which date back to the Bronze Age, houses historic churches, medieval walls and buildings, which are more prone to collapse than modern structure, reports said.

The deaths were caused by “cave-ins and falling debris,” the mayor of Lorca was reported as saying. “We’re trying to find out if there are people inside the collapsed houses.”

Other Earthquakes in Europe

About a dozen other shocks have struck

  • Madeira Islands, Portugal Region
  • Southern Italy
  • Central Turkey
  • The Aegean Sea
  • Southern Greece
  • Crete
  • Sicily

Raffaele Bendandi Earthquake Prediction

Many Romans fled the Eternal City yesterday (Wednesday) amid fears of a pending earthquake, ANSA news agency said.

In 1915 the late Italian watchmaker, carpenter and amateur seismologist Raffaele Bendandi (1893 – 1979) reportedly predicted that the “the big one” would strike Rome on May 11, 2011.

He believed that earthquakes are caused by planetary alignment in the solar system. The gravitational pull of the moon, sun and other planets caused movements in the earth’s crust, he thought.

A number of Internet prophets have since published much nonsense attributing each and every single quake that occur on this planet to planetary alignments.

FIRE-EARTH contacted one of these astrologers last month requesting a list of details and times of the alignments to establish any link to the strong, powerful and even mega quakes that have struck the planet in the last 10 years.

The said “prophet” responded by sending a list that excluded the timing and details of any alignment during which a significant quake measuring magnitude 6.0 or greater might have occurred.

Example from the list forwarded to FIRE-EARTH: “[Allegedly the alignment  of] Earth-Venus-Mars; Earth-Sun- Saturn; Jupiter-Earth-Mercury on October 1, 2010″ caused a 7.8Mw quake to occur in Indonesia 24 days later on October 25, 2010 (!)

Notes:

  1. In 2010 some 172 earthquakes measuring 6.0 to 7.9 struck the planet.
  2. The average strike rate for quakes measuring 7.0 to 7.9 was about one in 17 days in 2010 (21 quakes in 365 days).
  3. Data in Notes 1 and 2 above are provided by the USGS and may not be accurate due to political manipulation, but should be treated as ballpark figures.

Any Forecast?

FIRE-EARTH also asked the “astrologer seismologist” to provide a list of forecasts for any number of  earthquakes in the 1, 3 and 5 years that would be caused by planetary alignments.

The astrologer responded by saying that he was “too busy to do calculate [ planetary alignments.]“

Earthquake and Volcano Links

Global Disasters

Other Earthquake Links

Earthquake History for May 12th

The largest and deadliest earthquake in 2008 killed about 69,200 people (18,400 others missing and presumed dead), and injured 375,000 more in the Chengdu-Lixian-Guangyuan area, China. “More than 45.5 million people in 10 provinces and regions were affected. At least 15 million people were evacuated from their homes and more than 5 million were left homeless. An estimated 5.36 million buildings collapsed and more than 21 million buildings were damaged in Sichuan and in parts of Chongqing, Gansu, Hubei, Shaanxi and Yunnan.” ~USGS

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European chemicals threaten watchdog

Posted by feww on May 11, 2011

Chemical companies threaten EU watchdog with legal action if harmful products publicized: Report

In a letter from chemical industry group CEFIC to the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) in Helsinki,  “released after Reuters invoked freedom-of-information laws,” the chemical group said:

Going beyond its remits exposes unnecessarily the ECHA Management Board and its individual members to tremendous and unprecedented liability risks.

ECHA is responsible for “evaluating and restricting ” at least 30,000 unregulated substances, many of which pose a potential threat to human health, and maintaining  a data base for chemical substances and details of their toxicity, the report said.

ClientEarth lawyers and chemicals campaigners ChemSec earlier said they had started legal proceedings against ECHA for refusing to divulge “the names of facilities producing 356 potentially dangerous chemicals.”

“The public knows too little about them, because chemicals companies use the shield of commercial interests,” said ClientEarth lawyer Vito Buonsante.

More…


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