ARLENE: Tardy, Disorganized and Very Wet

ARLENE, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, bringing  torrential rains to central Mexico

Tropical Storm ARLENE is expected to make landfall near Tuxpan, central Mexico early Thursday (local time)

ARLENE is currently located about 100km east of the town of Tuxpan in the Mexican state of Veracruz moving west (275 degrees, at a forward speed of about 10 km/hr); it has a maximum sustained winds of about 113 km/hr (61 kts),  just short of being a category 1 hurricane (119 km/hr) on the FEWW Hurricane Scale, with wind gusts of up to 140 km/hr. ARLENE could probably intensify to a hurricane force before landfall, NHC said.

Tropical Storm ARLENE with projected track – IR/WV Diff Satellite Image (4-km) resolution. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

TS ARLENE Summary of Details (as of posting)

• Location: ~ 100km east of the town of Tuxpan, Veracru, Meixco
• Position: ~ 21N, 94W
• Movement and speed: moving west (275 degrees,)  at a forward speed of about 10 km/hr
• Maximum sustained winds: 113 km/hr (61 kt)
• Wind gusts:  up to 140 km/hr (75 kt)
• Remarks: ARLENE could probably intensify to a hurricane force before landfall (NHC).

Related Links

• Satellite Imagery
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• GOES Imagery

Jellyfish force UK nuke plant shutdown

Swarms of jellyfish invade Torness nuke plant (Scotland) knocking reactors offline

Two reactors at EDF Energy’s Torness nuclear power plant on the Scottish east coast remained shut after swarms of jellyfish clogged the plant’s cooling water filters yesterday.

Located about 50km east of the city of Edinburgh, Scotland, and owned by France’s EDF Energy, the Torness Nuclear Power Station was commissioned in 1988. The plant’s two reactors have an installed capacity of about 1,360 MWe. Photo: license details.

“We are working to clear the jellyfish from the waters near the power station. This work, as well as monitoring the area for more jellyfish, is ongoing,” a spokesman for Britain’s largest nuclear power operator, EDF Energy, said.

Swarms of Jellyfish

“There are suggestions from some science data that over the past few years there has been an increase in swarms of jellyfish. It’s possible it’s linked to climate change,” said a plankton ecologist who specializes in jellyfish research at the Marine Scotland Science laboratory in Aberdeen.

“Overfishing of small fish which feed off jellyfish leaves them less exposed to natural predators and gives them more room to reproduce, the Marine Biological Association said.”

Previous Incidents at Torness Nuke

In August 2006, both units were forced to shut down after the water filters in the cooling system were blocked by seaweed.

For other reported incidents at the plant see:

• Quarterly statements of nuclear incidents at nuclear installations

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

Related Links

• French Nuke Waste Plagues Siberia

• French Water!
• European Pressurized Water Reactor!
• All is NOT Well at Chernobyl
• Nuclear High Noon in the Atlantic Ocean
• Mafia Solves Nuclear Waste Problem
• Fish, Fish Eggs Holocaust
• This’s Got to Be the Year of Radioactive, Chemical and Oil Spills, Too!
• Another Hole in Areva’s Nuclear Cheese

Fire Surrounds Los Alamos Nuke Lab

LANL shuts down supercomputers as fire advances

Las Conchas fire explodes to more than 70,000 acres, attacking south and west of Los Alamos

The massive blaze has destroyed at least a dozen homes in Los Alamos County so far, officials said.

Meantime,  The Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) said it had shut down two of its largest supercomputers, as the massive blaze continued to burn nearby.

A team of Los Alamos employees have reportedly conducted preliminary analysis on air samples taken near the nuke lab on Tuesday.

“There is no additional material in the samples from lab activities or from our waste-management activities.”Said the lab director Charles McMillan.

In 2000, after Cerro Grande fire broke out, Los Alamos employees detected elevated levels of radioactive radon gas.

Las Conchas Fire map

Las Conchas Fire map June 29, 2011. Click image to enlarge. Original Map (PDF)

Las Conchas Fire Progression Map June 28, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

Flames above Los Alamos. Photo taken by Los Alamos National Laboratory on June 28, 2011. Some rights reserved

Volcanic Like Smoke Billowing out of Santa Fe National Forest. This image showing the Las Conchas wildfire raging in the Jemez Mountains of the Santa Fe National Forest in north-central New Mexico the was taken by a crew member aboard the ISS on June 27. The fire is  burning just southwest of LANL. Source: NASA.

Fire Summary:

• Name: Las Conchas Fire
  
• Date Started: 1 p.m., 6/26/2011
• Location: Approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35
• Fuels: Mixed Conifer, Ponderosa Pine. Fuel moisture is extremely low.
• Cause: Unknown – under investigation [The fire was reportedly ignited by a fallen power line]
• Size: 69,555 acres based on 06/29 infrared data
• Percent Contained: 3%
• Residences Destroyed: 12

Fire Update [from InciWeb]

Area Command Team 1 (Dan Oltrogge, Area Commander) and an additional Type 1 Incident Management Team (Dugger Hughes, Incident Commander) in-briefed with host agencies late yesterday. Firefighting efforts were broken in two zones. Rienarz’s Type 1 Incident Management Team will manage the north zone of the fire and Hughes’s Incident Management Team will manage the south zone. Crews are dealing with extremely dry fuels and potential threats from thunderstorms and dry lightning strikes.

Northwest – Firefighters scouted a potential fireline and burnout opportunities, including opportunities for aerial ignition on peaks to help moderate fire intensity along Valles Caldera 2 Road and Valles Caldera 9 Road. Firefighters will also continue to maintain a fire line using mop up methods along 4 Road to prevent the fire from spreading within the Valles Caldera National Preserve. Fire line construction will also continue toward the Cerro Pelado area.

East – Firefighters will be working along SR 501 and Ski Area Road on through Highway 4 to curb the fire from spreading east. Structural protection continues in Bandelier National Monument. Crews will also be working spot fires along Ski Area Road. A structure implementation plan was set in place for the Pajarito Ski Area. The Los Alamos Fire Department was brought in to provide added resources in the area.

A Sandoval County Assessment team is completing a post fire damage assessment. Their current assessment has documented twelve residences destroyed.

South side – The fire is backing down several drainages. Firefighters are scouting for potential fireline south of the fire and monitor the Alamo and Hondo Canyons, as well as the Sanchez and Capulin Canyon.

Current Evacuations:

City of Los Alamos – The acting Los Alamos County Administrator issued an evacuation order for the city of Los Alamos. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque is offering shelter services for evacuating residents of Los Alamos. Los Alamos evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. White Rock is currently under a voluntary evacuation.

The Santa Fe Animal Shelter and Humane Society and the Espanola Valley Humane Society will be taking in dogs, cats and other small household pets to help those displaced by the Las Conches Fire. They are also collecting names for those willing to host animals. For more information, please contact: Santa Fe (503) 983-4309, or Espanola (505) 753-8662.

The American Red Cross in New Mexico activated two official shelters in northern New Mexico: the Santa Claran Hotel & Casino in Espanola and the Cities of Gold Casino near Santa Fe. The American Red Cross (505) 265-8514 or 800-560-2302.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

If you live near the fire or near the Forest, you should always be ready for emergencies including evacuations, the three-step process is easy to remember and implement:

· Ready – Take personal responsibility and prepare before the threat of a wildland fire so your home is ready in case of a fire. Create defensible space by clearing brush away from your home. Use fire-resistant landscaping and harden your home with fire-safe construction measures. Assemble emergency supplies and belongings in a safe spot. Plan escapes routes. Make sure all those residing within the home know the plan of action.

· Set – Act immediately. Pack your vehicle with your emergency items. Remember your six P’s: people, personal computers, pets, pills, papers and pictures. Stay aware of the latest news and information on the fire from local media and your local fire department.

· Go – Leave early! Follow your personal action plan. Doing so will not only support your safety, but will allow firefighters to best maneuver resources to combat the fire.

Closures

NM 4 is closed at Jemez Falls Campground and at NM 501. NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.

For a recorded update on evacuations and road closures, call a Santa Fe National Forest toll-free line: 877-971-FIRE.

Bureau of Land Management: The Bureau of Land Management’s Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks National Monument will close to the public. The monument isn’t currently threatened, but the road to the monument will be used by firefighters to access the southern flank of the fire.

Bandelier National Monument: The Bandelier National Monument will be closed indefinitely.

Los Alamos National Labs: The Los Alamos National Laboratory will be closed due to the fire. All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities, and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site. Employees that are considered nonessential should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers. Employees should check local news sources, the LANL Update Hotline (505) 667-6622 and the LANL web page www.lanl.gov for updates. All radioactive and hazardous material is appropriately accounted for and protected. LANL staff is coordinating the on-site response and supporting the county and federal fire response.

Safety Message

The wildfire and burnout operations will continue to produce heavy smoke. Residents with respiratory problems in the path of smoke may want to consider relocating temporarily until smoke dissipates. Motorists should exercise caution due to reduced visibility.

Related Sites

• http://www.inciweb.org/
• http://www.nmfireinfo.com/
• http://www.twitter.com/T1SWIMT

Related Links:

• Las Conchas Fire Approaching Plutonium Dump Site

• Los Alamos Fire Explodes to 50,000 acres
• Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres
• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

The Wildfire that Broke Texas’s Back

Expecting Miracles !!

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated the entire state of Texas a disaster area with 213 of the states 254 counties declared as primary natural disaster areas, folowing one of the worst droughts on record.

The Lone Star State. Source: The Texas Forest Service. Click image to enlarge.

Since January 1, 2011, the drought, wildfires and other natural disasters have destroyed at least a third of the  corn, oats, wheat, pasture and forage crops in the Lone Star State.

The back-to-back disasters have also destroyed tens of thousands of cattle, horses and other farm animals, so far this year.

The High Five Interchange, Dallas, Texas. Source: Flickr. Some rights reserved.

Texas is the second largest U.S. state by area (695,620 sqkm), after Alaska, and second largest by population (pop: 21 million), behind California.

Drought Monitor Maps showing classification changes for selected time periods. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center/UNL. Click images to enlarge.

 

Map of below normal 28-day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of year (Texas). Source: USGS. Click images to enlarge.

 

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update
• Texas Dynamic Dyer Mill Fire Devours 50 Buildings
• U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• Texas Wildfires – Update April 30
• Texas wildfire conditions may worsen
• Texas Wildfires Scorch 1.8 Million Acres
• TEXAS FIRES – April 21 Update
• Texas Fires: More Towns Evacuated
• TEXAS ON FIRE

Worst drought in living memory gripping Horn of Africa

Parts of Kenya and Somalia experiencing pre-famine conditions: UN

At least 10 million people in drought-stricken areas of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are currently faced with severe food crisis and high malnutrition rates, with  parts of Kenya and Somalia experiencing pre-famine conditions, and the situation is worsening, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) said.

“Two consecutive poor rainy seasons have resulted in one of the driest years since 1950/51 in many pastoral zones,” a spokeswoman of the UNOCHA reported.

“There is no likelihood of improvement until 2012,” she said.

Child malnutrition rates in the worst affected areas exceed 30 percent- more than twice the emergency threshold of 15 percent, according to UNOCHA.

As food prices continue to surge in the region, more of the moderately poor households are being pushed over the edge, UNOCHA said.

Two consecutive poor rainy seasons in the eastern Horn of Africa since last year have resulted one of the driest years since 1950/51  in many pastoral areas. “The impacts of the drought have been exacerbated by high local cereal prices, excess livestock mortality, conflict and restricted humanitarian access in some areas,” said ReliefWeb.

Eastern Africa: Drought – Humanitarian Snapshot (as of 28 Jun 2011)

Source: UNOCHA. Click image to enlarge. Click here to view the original map (PDF)

Related Links

• Mass Die-offs

 

Las Conchas Fire Approaching Plutonium Dump Site

Massive Los Alamos blaze has consumed at least 61,000 acres, threatening plutonium waste storage

The blaze may have already reached the grounds of the LANL complex, and could reach a toxic dump site where 30,000 drums (6.25 million liters) of plutonium-contaminated waste are stored.

“Carl Beard, director of operations for the lab, said there has been no release of radioactive or hazardous materials into the environment and there was no immediate threat to public safety, ‘even in these extreme conditions.’” Said a report.

“The concern is that these drums will get so hot that they’ll burst,” Joni Arends, executive director of the Concerned Citizens for Nuclear Safety, told the AP news agency.

“That would put this toxic material into the plume,” she added.

Looking northwest from southern edge of municpal airport in Los Alamos. June 27, 2011. Photo by LANL phot-stream on Flickr

Volcanic-like plumes of smoke have blackened the sky over the Los Alamos forcing the evacuation of the entire city of about 12,000.

The communities of Cochiti Mesa, and Las Conchas have been evacuated.

On June 27, the fire breached the grounds of Los Alamos National Laboratory and a one-acre spot fire reportedly burned on the lab complex before firefighters extinguished it.

Las Conchas Fire Map

Las Conchas Fire map June 28, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

What People Have Said:

“I seriously believe it could go to 100,000 acres … We have fire all around the lab. It’s a road away.” Doug Tucker, Los Alamos fire chief said.

“We’re doing our best to keep it off the lab,” He added.

“We are throwing absolutely everything at this that we got,” Sen. Tom Udall of N.M. said.

Fire Summary:

• Name: Las Conchas Fire
  
• Date Started: 1 p.m., 6/26/2011
• Location: Approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35
• Fuels: Mixed Conifer, Ponderosa Pine. Fuel moisture is extremely low.
• Cause: Unknown – under investigation [The fire was reportedly ignited by a fallen power line]
• Size: 60,741 acres based on infrared data [as of latest available data posted on the Internet on June 28, 2011, 11:30 am local time]
• Percent Contained: 0%

Fire Update: [from InciWeb]

East – Crews are working to protect structures near Bandelier, as well as working to contain the fire along the Frijole Canyon.

West – Crews are building direct lines to prevent fire movement to the west.

Northeast – Crews are working to contain the fire using burnout methods to prevent the fire from spreading north of Pajarito Road and east of Highway 501.

South – North of Cochiti fire progression is being slowed by lighter fuel types. Firefighters are evaluating methods to stop the fire from spreading south.

Current Evacuations:

City of Los Alamos – The acting Los Alamos County Administrator issued an evacuation order for the city of Los Alamos. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque is offering shelter services for evacuating residents of Los Alamos. Los Alamos evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. White Rock is currently under a voluntary evacuation.The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque offers shelter services for evacuating residents of the Los Alamos townsite. Cities of Gold also accepts pets. Many residents remain in White Rock following voluntary evacuations which began Sunday. Los Alamos townsite evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque offers shelter services for evacuating residents of the Los Alamos townsite. Cities of Gold also accepts pets. Many residents remain in White Rock following voluntary evacuations which began Sunday. Los Alamos townsite evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque offers shelter services for evacuating residents of the Los Alamos townsite. Cities of Gold also accepts pets. Many residents remain in White Rock following voluntary evacuations which began Sunday. Los Alamos townsite evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

If you live near the fire or near the Forest, you should always be ready for emergencies including evacuations, the three-step process is easy to remember and implement:

· Ready – Take personal responsibility and prepare before the threat of a wildland fire so your home is ready in case of a fire. Create defensible space by clearing brush away from your home. Use fire-resistant landscaping and harden your home with fire-safe construction measures. Assemble emergency supplies and belongings in a safe spot. Plan escapes routes. Make sure all those residing within the home know the plan of action.

· Set – Act immediately. Pack your vehicle with your emergency items. Remember your six P’s: people, personal computers, pets, pills, papers and pictures. Stay aware of the latest news and information on the fire from local media and your local fire department.

· Go – Leave early! Follow your personal action plan. Doing so will not only support your safety, but will allow firefighters to best maneuver resources to combat the fire.

Closures

NM 4 is closed at Jemez Falls Campground and at NM 501. NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.

Bandelier National Monument: The Bandelier National Monument will be closed indefinitely.

Los Alamos National Labs: The Los Alamos National Laboratory will be closed due to the fire. All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities, and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site. Employees that are considered nonessential should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers. Employees should check local news sources, the LANL Update Hotline (505) 667-6622 and the LANL web page www.lanl.gov for updates. All radioactive and hazardous material is appropriately accounted for and protected. LANL staff is coordinating the on-site response and supporting the county and federal fire response.

Safety Message

The wildfire and burnout operations will continue to produce heavy smoke. Residents with respiratory problems in the path of smoke may want to consider relocating temporarily until smoke dissipates. Motorists should exercise caution due to reduced visibility.

Related Sites

• http://www.inciweb.org/
• http://www.nmfireinfo.com/
• http://www.twitter.com/T1SWIMT

Related Links

• Los Alamos Fire Explodes to 50,000 acres
• Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres
• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Soon Willie Soon

Willie Soon, a U.S. climate change skeptic, who also denies mercury health risks, is a Big Oil pawn: Greenpeace

Soon, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has received funding from:

• NASA
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Big Oil and Big Coal
• American Petroleum Institute
• Koch Industries

“Last year, the foundation of Charles Koch, chairman and CEO of privately held Koch Industries, gave Soon $65,000 to study how variations in the Sun are related to climate change,” a report said.

“Soon also got $131,000 from oil major Exxon Mobil Corp in 2007 and 2008 received grants to study the Sun’s role in climate change and global warming in the Arctic, Greenpeace said.”

FIRE-EARTH is receiving dozens of comments from at least four different sources that are forcefully demanding a debate on the Sun’s role in climate change and global warming.

Needless to say, those comments are invariably deleted.

Who’s Willie Soon [Sourced from wikipedia]

Willie Wei-Hock Soon (born 1966 in Malaysia) is an astrophysicist at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Soon has testified before Congress on the issue of climate change He is known for his views that most global warming is caused by solar variation.

He is chief science adviser to the Science and Public Policy Institute, a think tank which disputes the belief that global warming is anthropogenic.Soon is also associated with the George C. Marshall Institute, where he co-authored Lessons and Limits of Climate History: Was 20th Century Climate Unusual? with Sallie Baliunas. The pair have also written for the Fraser Institute of Canada regarding Sun-climate connections.

One of their publications was the center of political controversy, and editors resigned from the journal which published the paper.Soon and Baliunas have also been criticised because their research budget was funded in part by the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association. Another paper coauthored by Soon started a heated debate with polar bear experts.

In 2004 Soon was awarded the “Petr Beckmann Award for courage and achievement in the defense of scientific truth” by Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. (!!)

DDP is unconvinced of the role of CFCs in ozone depletion, the role of greenhouse gases in global warming, and in the utility of renewable energy sources. [Sourced from wikipedia]

Related Links

• Soon and Baliunas controversy

Japan’s Fukushima Nuke Plant Still Leaking

Radioactive water leaking from Fukushima NPP

Some 15 tons of radioactive water have leaked from a storage tank at the stricken Fukushima NPP, Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported.

The plant operators, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), continue to accumulate large volumes of radioactive contaminated water after being used to cool the melting reactors.

Meantime, TEPCO’s majority institutional shareholders have nixed a motion by a large number of individual shareholders to abandon nuclear energy in the wake of the Fukushima plant’s triple core meltdown.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

U.S. corn production may fall on flooding, heat, drought

Severe flooding in the Mississippi and Missouri river basins have damaged 2.5 million acres of U.S. farmland: Report

Flooding in the Midwest and Northern Plains may lead to a fall in corn production in 2011, according to the CEO of Cargill, the world’s largest commodities trader.

“Clearly, we have lost acres with the flooding,” Greg Page, chief executive of Cargill Inc., told journalist during a visit to Kiev, the Ukraine capital. “Certainly our company is fighting the floods on the Missouri River.

“You could certainly be talking about 300m-400m bushels [lost,]”  Page said.

“The price of corn shot to a record high this month amid surging demand from emerging markets and rising consumption of the grain by the ethanol industry. US corn inventories are set to fall to their lowest since the mid-1990s, according to the US Department of Agriculture.” Said a report.

Added to the problem of flooding in key corn-growing states like Ohio and Indiana, is the worsening drought and soaring temperatures in the southern United States.

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

 

Los Alamos Fire Explodes to 50,000 acres

Las Conchas wildfire burning near Los Alamos grows by a whopping 850 percent

The fire briefly entered the grounds of Los Alamos National Laboratory, but was reportedly beaten back by firefighters.

Fire near Los Alamos National Laboratory

The flames have not yet reached buildings on 28,000-acre lab complex, and authorities said there was little threat to plutonium facility on the northeast side of the complex, according to reports.

“The facility is very well protected from any kind of wildland fire threat,” said a lab spokesman.

In May 2000 a wildfire destroyed several buildings within the complex causing at least $1 billion in damage, he said.

Cerro Grande fire consumed nearly 50,000 acres destroying several hundred homes and about 100 buildings within LANL complex 11 years ago.

Las Conchas wildfire. Freeze frame from a video clip.

The fire started about 1:00 pm on Sunday, June 26, 2011 and is currently zero percent contained.

“The fire burned actively all day to the north/northeast. Running, crowning, and spotting up to a half a mile of the head of the fire was observed.” Said a fire report.

Fire Location

Jemez Ranger District, Santa Fe National Forest; approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35.

Las Conchas Fire map. Click image to enlarge.

Evacuations

The city of Los Alamos is under MANDATORY evacuation as of 1:45 pm (June 26). White Rock remains under VOLUNTARY evacuation. Cochiti Mesa, Las Conchas, Bandelier National Monument, and campgrounds near the fire were evacuated yesterday. There were approximately 100 residents evacuated from Cochiti Mesa and Las Conchas, and no evacuees reported to the evacuation center at La Cueva Fire Station.

Los Alamos National Labs

The Los Alamos National Laboratory will be closed due to the fire. All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities, and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site. Employees that are considered nonessential should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers. Employees should check local news sources, the LANL Update Hotline (505.667.6622) and the LANL web page www.lanl.gov fo updates. All radioactive and hazardous material is appropriately accounted for and protected. LANL staff is coordinating the on-site response and supporting the county and federal fire response.

Threats to Structures and powerlines

• Power and phone lines are down in the area.
• All aircraft in the are have been grounded due to the smoke and other hazards.

Pacheco Fire: 2 miles north of Santa Fe Ski Basin

Source: InciWeb

Related Links

• Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres
• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres

Las Conchas wildfire forces closure of Los Alamos National Laboratory; County under voluntary evacuation

The raging blaze had consumed its way to within 1 km  of the lab’s SW boundary, forcing the authorities to activate its Emergency Operations Center and shut down the complex.

Las Conchas wildfire is actively burning near Frijoles Canyon in Jemez Springs with zero percent containment, as of posting.

The blaze is currently about 10 miles away from residential areas of Los Alamos and White Rock counties, where the officials have asked residents to consider a voluntary evacuation.

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is one of two laboratories in the United States where nuclear weapons are designed.

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• State of Emergency Declared in 29 North Carolina Counties
• State of Emergency Declared for 33 Oklahoma Counties
• Disaster Declared in 25 More Kansas Counties

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update
• U-S Drought: Mega Disaster Unfolding

• VEGETATION
• Weather
• Wildfires
• World Now

Mega Disasters:

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier

Drought Conditions to Worsen: FIRE-EARTH

Drought Conditions in the Southern U.S. Continue to Fuel Wildfires

Drought conditions are destroying or causing extensive damage to crops in the southern United States, fueling wildfires that have consumed about 8 million acres, so far this year, killing wildlife and farm animals alike, destroying thousands of homes and leaving tens of thousands of people displaced in at least a dozen states.

In the past 3 days States of Emergency have been declared in at least 87 counties spanning three states of Kansas, Oklahoma and North Carolina.

Kansas Drought

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) designated 25 more Kansas counties as disaster areas due to crop damage caused by the ongoing drought.

Oklahoma Drought

Drought conditions and raging wildfires in Oklahoma prompted the Lt Gov to declare a state of emergency for 33 counties in that state.

North Carolina Drought

On Friday, N.C. Gov. declared a state of emergency in 29 counties due to drought conditions and raging wildfires.

• State of Emergency Declared in 29 North Carolina Counties
• State of Emergency Declared for 33 Oklahoma Counties
• Disaster Declared in 25 More Kansas Counties

U.S. Drought Map for June 21. Compared with the previous week (see below) the latest drought map show worsening drought conditions, in all categories (C0 -C4) throughout the stricken areas.

Note: US Drought Monitor defines drought as “a protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in extensive damage to crops, resulting in loss of yield.”

U.S. Drought Map for June 14, 2011 included for comparison. (See above).

The Drought Monitor Report

According to the Drought Monitor report, 70 percent of Texas experienced “exceptional drought,” the worst level of drought, over the period June 17 – June 24, 2011.

Also 91 percent of the sate was stricken by either exceptional or “extreme” drought, the second-worst category.

Arizona was experiencing exceptional or extreme drought in 70 percent of its land up by 3 percent from the previous period.

Louisiana saw exceptional drought rising to 65 percent of the state, a near three-fold increase, and Oklahoma 35 percent, up from about 8 percent previously.

Drought Monitor Maps showing classification changes for selected time periods. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center/UNL. Click images to enlarge.

Drought Conditions to Worsen

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show an exceptional worsening of drought conditions in the southern and western United States through October/November 2011.

External Links

• Texas Wildfires Could Cost $500 Million 
• The cost of wildfires in Arizona soars to more than $100 million
• “Right now, Georgia can’t afford any more wildfires”
• Cost to battle Duckett Fire estimated at $5.2 million

Related Links

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update
• U-S Drought: Mega Disaster Unfolding

• VEGETATION
• Weather
• Wildfires
• World Now

Mega Disasters:

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion

Fort Calhoun NPP Surrounded by Floodwaters, as Berm Collapses

Fort Calhoun NPP containment buildings and electrical transformers surrounded by 70cm of water, as temporary flood berm collapses

The breach in the  inflatable berm protecting the Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant occurred at about 1:30 am (1:25am) local time Sunday, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) said.

An aerial view of Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant taken on June 16, 2011 showing the extent of flooding at the station. Photo: U.S. Army Corps of Engineer

Reactor shutdown cooling and spent-fuel pool cooling were unaffected, the NRC said.

The plant, operated by the Omaha Public Power District, has been off line since April for refueling.

Emergency diesel generators were activated after the breach, but normal electrical power supply was restored by Sunday afternoon, the agency said.

Containment buildings at the Fort Calhoun plant are watertight, and the reactor cooling system and spent-fuel pool cooling ponds were unaffected, NRC added.

The 2.7m (8 foot) high, 600m long inflatable flood berm surrounding the plant collapsed after being punctured by heavy equipment.

Fort Calhoun, which is about 30 km (19 miles) north of Omaha, was shut down for refueling on April 7 and has not since been restarted. It remains under the Unusual Event declared on June 6.

The 480-megawatt plant which is located north of Omaha shut down about 10 weeks ago to refuel, but has remained shut since due to flooding, according to Omaha Public Power District (OPPD).

The Fort Calhoun NPP has a single CE pressurized water reactor generating about 480 megawatts of electricity, the smallest commercial power reactor in North America.

OPPD is “a customer-owned utility,” which provides electricity to about 346,000 customers in all or parts of 13 counties in east and southeast Nebraska.

Flooding along the Missouri River to continue until mid-August

Water release from the reservoirs and dams along the Missouri River is expected to continue until at least mid-August, resulting “in near-record flooding along portions of the Missouri River.”

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

(UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

External Links

• Berm Collapses at Nuclear Plant: NRC Claims No Danger
• Japanese parents fume over Fukushima radiation impact

Related Links

• FLOODING AT TWO NEBRASKA NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding

Strong Quake Strikes N Coast of Papua, Indonesia

Magnitude 6.4 EQ Strikes 172 km N of Enarotali, Papua, Indonesia

Three major earthquakes have struck the region within 330km radius of the epicenter since 1914, including the largest two in the last 40 years (8.1Mw on 10 Jan 1979, and 8.2Mw on 17 Feb 1996).

10-degree Map Centered at 0°N,135°E

EQ Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude: 6.4Mw
• Date-Time:
• Sunday, June 26, 2011 at 12:16:41 UTC
• Sunday, June 26, 2011 at 09:16:41 PM at epicenter

• Location: 2.389°S, 136.648°E
• Depth: 36.1 km (22.4 miles)
• Region: NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

• Distances: 172 km (106 miles) N of Enarotali, Papua, Indonesia
• 331 km (205 miles) ESE of Manokwari, Papua, Indonesia
• 1,286 km (799 miles) NNE of DARWIN, Northern Territory, Australia
• 3,336 km (2072 miles) E of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
• Location Uncertainty:
• horizontal +/- 14.6 km (9.1 miles);
• depth +/- 12.2 km (7.6 miles)

• Source:USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: usc0004gyw

Historic Seismicity [Mag ≥ 7.0 since 1900]

Source: USGS-EHP

Related Links

• VolcanoWatch 26 June 2011
• Messages From Earth’s Powerhouse
• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

VolcanoWatch 26 June 2011

VoW: The Restive Kīlauea

Kīlauea: Probably the World’s Most Active Volcano

Kīlauea is the youngest volcano on the Big Island of Hawai`i.

The active lava lake in Pu`u `Ō `ō and its levee. View looking east into Pu`u `Ō `ō, its crater partly filled by lava flows accumulating on the crater floor. The active lava lake in the crater is 205 m (673 ft) long and varies in width from 80–115 m (262–377 ft). The West Gap pit is in the central foreground, and the Puka Nui and MLK pits are to the right (the MLK pit is in back). The crater has filled in vertically about 100 m (328 ft) since the crater collapsed on March 5, 2011, at the start of the uprift Kamoamoa eruption. It still has about 12 m (39 ft) to go to reach the level of the crater floor prior to the collapse. Source of image and caption: HVO. Click images to enlarge.

Lighter-colored patches of lava on the crater floor are recent overflows. Source: HVO.

Along with overflows, low-level spattering from points wandering around the perimeter of the lava lake continually builds up the levee that impounds the lake. Source: HVO.

The lava lake’s levee stands up to 8 m (26 ft) above the surrounding crater floor. This steep-sided levee impounds the lava and forms what is called a “perched” lava lake. Pieces of the rim occasionally collapse into the lake, leading to sudden and fast-moving overflows of lava onto the crater floor. Source: HVO.

Map of Kīlauea. Source: HVO

• Location: 19.425ºN 155.292ºW
• Elev.: 1,277 m a.s.l.
• Area: 1,430 km² (13.7% of Hawai`i)
• Volume: 25,000-35,000 km³

Click HERE for more images and information …

Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

(based on SI /USGS report for 15 June – 21 June 2011)

New activity/unrest:

• Etna, Sicily [Group A]
• Nabro, Eritrea — [Group C]
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile —  [Group D]
• Turrialba, Costa Rica [Group F]

FEWW Map of Volcanoes

Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Ongoing Activity

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Egon, Flores Island (Indonesia)
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Paluweh, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia)
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

• Activity
• Learn
• Images
• Hazards
• Publications
• Observatories

Current Alerts for U.S. Volcanoes

• Kilauea Watch Orange 2011-06-25 07:53:30
• Pagan Advisory Yellow 2011-06-24 10:23:48
• Long Valley Volcanic Center Normal Green 2011-06-24 17:58:30
• Mauna Loa Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Hualalai Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Haleakala Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Mauna Kea Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Yellowstone Normal Green 2011-06-01 14:15:51
• Lo`ihi Unassigned 2011-06-04 07:16:42

US Volcanoes: Webcams

Related Links

• Volcanic Explosions Could Split More Than Africa
• Arabia Shakes
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [28 Oct 2009]
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [26 Oct 2009]

• Messages From Earth’s Powerhouse
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 19 March 2009
• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun

• FEWW Volcano Links

• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links