WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

***PLEASE DISTRIBUTE WIDELY***  

WARNING: About 20 percent of the global population could perish by 2016

FIRE-EARTH’s population model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact on the planet and the planetary response to the anthropogenic harm  could occur by early 2016.

• RANDOM. The mass die-offs would occur randomly.

• UNSTOPPABLE. Once triggered, the chain-reaction created by the dynamics of mass die offs would burst out of control.

On May 15, 2011 symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began...

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months. FIRE-EARTH models forecast:

Food production:

• Average decline of 22% in the global agricultural output
• Loss of topsoil and worsening of soil quality
• Increases in the size and occurrence of dead zones
• Large decline in marine food sources

Spread of Disease

• Substantial increases in the spread of diseases
• vector borne
• Air borne
• water borne
• food borne
• Increase in the spread of human immunodeficiency
• Significant decline in air quality (and corresponding increase in chronic respiratory diseases)
• Worsening of water pollution

Physical Safety

Major increases in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as large scale displacements due to the loss of shelter and livelihood caused by extreme weather and geophysical events including:

• Tornadoes
• Hurricanes
• Storms and Extreme Weather
• Flash Flooding
• Drought and Deluge
• Extremes of Temperature
• Wildfires
• Loss of “Seasons”
• Earthquakes*
• Tsunamis*
• Volcanic activity*

The Combined Effect

Social upheaval, regional conflicts and wars caused by mass migrations and scarcity of basic resources resulting from the combined effects of the above.

[June 21, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,730 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Related Links

• Back to the Primordial Future
• China Floods: Deaths, Displacement & Climbing Food Prices
• About

Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Eruption Forces More Flight Cancellations

More flights from Sydney to New Zealand have been cancelled

All Qantas and Jetstar flights from Sydney to New Zealand have cancelled again as new clouds of volcanic ash from continued eruption at Chile’s Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano complex hits southern Australia’s airspace.

Qantas has reportedly cancelled up to a 100 domestic flights and eight trans-Tasman flights today, as of posting.

The ash has also severely disrupted Virgin flights, reports said. The ash could severely disrupt flight from New Zealand tomorrow.

Ash and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from Puyehue Volcano Complex eruptions. The Ash RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI IR8.7, IR10.8 and IR12.0 channels. Copyright Eumetsat 2011. Click image to enlarge.

Movement of volcanic ash clouds from Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Eruption between 5 and 12 June, 2011. Credit: NOAA and EUMETSAT

Latest Advisory by VAAC BUENOS AIRES

FVAG01 SABM 210200 2011172 0202
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20110621/0200Z
VAAC: BUENOS AIRES
VOLCANO: CORDON CAULLE 1507-141
PSN: S4052 W07220
AREA: CHILE-C
SUMMIT ELEV: 1798M
ADVISORY NR: 2011/074
INFO SOURCE: GOES-12 GFS/HYSPLIT MODEL
ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION
OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 21/0100Z
OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL150 MOV NE 15KT AREA BTN S4052 W07220 – S4000
W07000 – S4100 W06700 – S4030 W06300 – S3900 W06600 – S3900 W07000 -
S4052 W07220
FCST ASH CLD +06HR: 210800Z SFC/FL150 : S4052 W07220 – S3800 W07030 -
S3900 W06700 – S4000 W06300 – S4100 W06700 – S4052 W07220
FCST ASH CLD +12HR: 211400Z SFC/FL150: S4052 W07220 – S3800 W07200 -
S3900 W06800 – S4000 W06500 – S4100 W06200 – S4100 W06500 – S4030
W07000 – S4052
W07220
FCST ASH CLD +18HR: 212000Z SFC/FL150 : S4052 W07220 – S3600 W07300 -
S3800 W07100 – S3900 W06500 – S4000 W06100 – S4100 W06500 – S4000
W07000 – S4052
W07220
RMK: VA CLOUD AREA CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY
NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20110621/0800Z

VAAC Darwin

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Click image to enlarge.

Related Links

• Puyehue Ash: Seamless Satellite Imagery
• VolcanoWatch 16 June 2011
• Puyehue Eruption – Recent Satellite Images
• Puyehue Volcano Ash Clouding SH Skies
• Puyehue ash raises river temp, kills salmon stock
• Puyehue Volcanic Range Continues Ejecting Ash
• Puyehue Volcano Satellite Images
• Puyehue volcano update
• Chile’s Puyehue volcano explodes
• Airlines

U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update

Monument Fire: AZ  Governor Deploys National Guard in Sierra Vista

(Posted June 20, 2011, at 4:33 pm MST on AZEIN)

• Beginning Tuesday, June 21, the service members will provide area security for locations evacuated due to the fire…
• “The Monument Fire continues to draw a massive response from federal, state and local authorities,” said Governor Brewer. “I’ve deployed these National Guard members to assist with the effort, and won’t hesitate to authorize additional manpower if necessary.”

Ozone Health Watch Issued for June 20; High Pollution Advisory Issued for June 21 

• Source: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality

Fire Details (NO recent bulletin available)

• Size: 26,980 acres
• Containment: 27%
• Fire Reported: June 12, 2011 at 1 p.m.
• Location: Palominas Fire District, in the Huachuca Mountains
• Jurisdiction: Coronado National Memorial/Coronado National Forest
• Resources on Fire: There are 1,097 people assigned to the fire, including 22 crews, 108 engines, 9 helicopters, 10 Air Tankers and 4 Dozers.
• Fire Behavior: Extreme fire behavior with sustained runs,medium spotting, and flame lengths in excess of 20 feet.
• Growth Potential: Extreme
  Terrain Difficulty: Extreme
• Remarks: The fire has burned a total of 1,526 acres within Mexico which are not included in the acres reported in block 15. Over 130 Federal, State and Local Law Enforcement officers are conducting evacuation and re-entry operations.
• Pre-Evacuation Areas
  • High Knoll Area
  • West of Highway 92: Yaqui north to Buffalo Soldier Trail and west to Fort Huachuca
  • East of Highway 92: Camino Prinicpal north to Buffalo Soldier Trail and east to Aquaduct Road

• For more Information Click HERE

Monument and Horseshoe Two Fires Satellite Image

Monument and Horseshoe Two Fires were burning fiercely in southern Arizona on June 19, 2011 when  MODIS on the Aqua satellite took this image at 1:05 pm MST. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Horseshoe Two Fire summary:

The fire moved through Marble, Emigrant and Woods canyons on June 19, 2011.

• Size: 213,511 acres
  
• Percent Contained: 80%

• Date started: May 8, 2011
• Number of Personnel: 1,230
• Location: Portal, Ariz.
• Total structures destroyed: 23
• Cost to Date: $45,631,443

 

Wallow Fire

• Size: 519,319 acres
• Percent Contained: 51%
• Residences: 2,714 threatened; 32 destroyed; 5 damaged
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed; 1 damaged
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed

• Date of Origin: Sunday May 29th, 2011 approx. 01:30 PM
• Location: Eastern AZ near Alpine, Nutrioso, and Springerville
• Total Personnel: 3,531
• Growth Potential: Extreme
• Terrain Difficulty: High
• Current Weather
• Temperature: 72-88 degrees
• Humidity: 8-9%

Honey Prairie Complex Fire, Georgia Satellite Image

• Size: 261,663 acres
• Percent Contained: 60%
• Cause: Lightning
• Date of Origin: Saturday April 30th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
• Location: Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 5 mi NE of Fargo, GA
• Total Personnel 629
• Fire Behavior: Numerous hot spots around the fire perimeter. Active fire spread in Divisions Z toward the Northeast.
• Growth Potential: High
• Terrain Difficulty: High
• Current Weather
• Wind Conditions: 19 mph W
• Temperature: 100 degrees
• Humidity: 31%

Honey Prairie Complex Fire Map

Click image to enlarge.

MODIS Active Fire Detection Map SGA – SE. Click image to enlarge.

The Honey Prairie Fire, largest of nine separate fires dubbed the Honey Prairie Complex Fire were burning in and around the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge when MODIS on the Aqua satellite took this image. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Texas Wildfires [Source Texas Forest Service]

• TFS reported 43 new fires for 23,965 acres, including 12 new large fires.
• National Preparedness Level: 3
• Southern Area Preparedness Level: 3
• TFS Preparedness Level: 4
• Due to the shortage of aviation resources, four National Guard Blackhawk helicopters were activated in Austin.
• Since June 14, 2011 TFS has responded to 148 fires for 72,707 acres.

New Fires

• DYER Mill FIRE, Grimes County. This fast-moving fire three miles east of Whitehall has burned at least 4,000 acres. NO containment reported.
• MIDWAY (COWBOY CHURCH) FIRE, Walker County. 1,000 acres, 5 percent contained. The fire is burning near Huntsville. One hundred sixty-three homes were evacuated near Midway. The fire is burning on both sides of Interstate 45 with crowning in the timber.
• LONGFELLOW FIRE, Pecos County. 1,700 acres, 5 percent contained. The fire is burning in heavy brush 40 miles southeast of Ft. Stockton.
• COWBOY FIRE, Jasper County. 322 acres, contained. The fire is a rekindle from a fire earlier in the month. It is burning in pine plantation.
• McDONALD II FIRE, Clay County. 5,000 acres, unknown containment. The fire was threatening the town of Henrietta. Evacuations of numerous homes and businesses took place last night (June 19).
• MASTERSON FIRE, Moore County. 5,000 acres, contained. The fire is burning 12 miles west of Lake Meredith. Gas and oil infrastructure and cattle are threatened.
• ROCK CREEK FIRE, Stonewall County. 2,000 acres, 50 percent contained. The fire is burning seven miles northeast of Aspermont in tall grass.
• PATILLO FIRE, Erath County. 300 acres, 60 percent contained. Evacuations occurred but no structures were lost.
• SCHAFFNER FIRE, Clay County. 400 acres, unknown containment. The fire is eight miles northwest of Henrietta.
• RIDDLE FIRE, Stonewall County. 600 acres, contained. The fire is burning seven miles southeast of Aspermont.
• JRM FIRE, Throckmorton County. 2,500 acres, unknown containment. This fire is a complex of four lightning fires near Throckmorton. Twelve homes are threatened.
• NANCE RANCHFIRE , Randall County. 350 acres, 90 percent contained. Two SEATs and a TFS task force worked the fire burning in grass six miles east of Canyon.

Uncontained Fires from June 19

• BEARING BEARING FIRE, Polk and Trinity Counties. 14,000 acres, 40 percent contained. The fire is burning near Carmona. Two homes were destroyed and dozens have been evacuated.
• POWER LINE FIRE, Jasper County. 2,500 acres, 25 percent contained. The fire is burning just south of Lake Sam Rayburn Dam. Five hundred homes are threatened.
• SMAC FIRE, Brooks County. 20,000 acres, 40 percent contained. Extreme fire behavior was observed again yesterday on this fire 13 miles southwest of Falfurrias.
• DHI FIRE, Pecos County. 8,000 acres, 80 percent contained. The fire is burning 35 miles southeast of Ft. Stockton.
• HUDSON COMPLEX FIRE, Sterling County. 3,160 acres, 95 percent contained. The fire is burning 34 miles northwest of San Angelo.
• FAULKNER FIRE, Crockett County. 2,200 acres, 95 percent contained. 900 acres, 40 percent contained. The fire is burning southwest of Big Lake.
• FATHER’S DAY FIRE, Cochran County. 3,000 acres, 30 percent contained. One hundred homes were threatened in Whiteface.
• 4097 FIRE, Newton County. 410 acres, unknown containment., Polk and Trinity Counties. 14,000 acres, 40 percent contained. The fire is burning near Carmona.Two homes were destroyed and dozens have been evacuated.

Other Stats for Texas Fires

Year-To-Date Totals (Source: Texas Forest Service)

• Fires: 10,331
• Acres burned: 3,018,008
• Structures Destroyed: 1,325 units [More likely as many as 1,750 structures have been lost]
• Six of the 10 largest recorded fires in Texas history have occurred in 2011, so far.

Related Links

• Texas Dynamic Dyer Mill Fire Devours 50 Buildings
• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Arizona Wildfires Update – June 19
• Brace for the Worst Ever

Magnitude 6.5 Quake Strikes Northern Chile

Strong Earthquake Measuring 6.5Mw Shakes Calama, Antofagasta, Chile

The quake was epicentered at  21.681°S, 68.187°W and struck at a depth of about 113 km, shaking the country’s mining heartland near the border with Bolivia, on Monday June 20, 2011 at 16:35:59 UTC.

The earthquake was too deep and far from the coastal areas to cause a tsunami. There were no reports of damage or casualty as of posting.

EQ Details

• F-E Region: Chile-Bolivia Border Region
• Magnitude: 6.5Mw
• Time: 2011-06-20 16:35:59.4 UTC
• Magnitude: 6.5 (Mw)
• Epicenter: 68.42°W 21.84°S
• Depth: 113 km
• Status: M – manually revised
• Source: GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,70°W

EQ Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP. Enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Distances [Source: USGS NEIC -WDCS-D]

• 87 km (54 miles) NE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile
• 196 km (121 miles) E of Tocopilla, Antofagasta, Chile
• 224 km (139 miles) SW of Uyuni, Bolivia
• 1,297 km (805 miles) N of SANTIAGO, Region Metropolitana, Chile

Related Links

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• World’s Dormant Volcanoes Firing
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Texas Dynamic Dyer Mill Fire Devours 50 Buildings

The ferocious Dyer Mill Fire destroys dozens of homes, buildings in Grimes County northwest of Houston

The Dyer Mill Fire has destroyed 30 homes and 20 other building, scorching 3,600 acres in Grimes County about 80 miles northwest of Houston, reports said.

Frightening Fire Stats

• Since the start of fire on November 15, 2010, some 12,189 fires have burned 3,012,876 acres in the state of Texas (Source: Texas Forest Service.)
• Six of the 10 largest recorded fires in Texas history have occurred in 2011 (Source: TFS).
• Texas wildfires have destroyed about 1,700 homes and structures [FIRE-Earth estimate] so far this year [TFS figure: 1,273 structures lost.]

Texas: Daily Fire Danger Map

Other Fires

Another large fire is raging in Trinity and Polk counties. The massive 14,000-acre blaze is said to be one of the largest in East Texas history.

The Bearing Fire has been burning since Friday, forcing many evacuations and causing loss of property.

NUGENT, Jones County. 450 acres, unknown containment. One home was destroyed on this fire burning in tall grass 10 miles northeast of Hawley.

FORTUNE 2, Palo Pinto County. 200 acres, 25 percent contained.

Uncontained fires from previous days (more than 100 acres in timber, 300 acres in lighter fuels):

BIRD RANCH 2, Cottle County. 29,976 acres, 90 percent contained. The fire is burning in rough terrain 13 miles west of Paducah. .

BOLT, Jim Hogg County. 1,300 acres, 90 percent contained.

SUTTON CEMETERY, Hardin County. 170 acres, 80 percent contained. The fire is burning in 12-year-old plantation 15 miles west of Kountze.

CAMP BOOTHE OAKS, Nolan County. 1,116 acres, 80 percent contained. The fire is 7 miles southwest of Sweetwater in tall grass.

• TFS currently is responding to six fires that have burned 33,212 acres.
• 217 of the 254 Texas counties are reporting burn bans.
• Detailed fire information can be found at inciweb.org.
• The Texas Forecast Fire Danger Map: Texas Interagency Coordination Center website under Fire Danger.

Drought information:

• Since January 2011 only five counties in Texas (Bowie, Red River, Lamar, Fannin, Grayson) have received normal rainfall.
• Over the last 60 days, around 70 percent of the state has rainfall deficits running 50 percent or less of normal rainfall.
• Over the last 30 days, around 90 percent of the state has rainfall deficits running 50 percent or less of normal rainfall.

Related Links

• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20

Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding

The Fort Calhoun NPP in Nebraska still in shutdown following Missouri River flooding  

The federal government insists the plant has not flooded and is NOT expected to pose any danger.

Original caption: The Fort Calhoun nuclear power station in Fort Calhoun, Neb., currently shut down for refueling, is surrounded by flood waters from the Missouri River, Tuesday, June 14, 2011. On Tuesday, the releases at Gavins Point Dam in South Dakota hit the maximum planned amount of 150,000 cubic feet of water per second, which are expected to raise the Missouri River 5 to 7 feet above flood stage in most of Nebraska and Iowa. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik). Image may be subject to copyright.

The 480-megawatt plant which is located north of Omaha shut down about 10 weeks ago to refuel, but has remained shut since due to flooding, according to Omaha Public Power District (OPPD).

The Fort Calhoun NPP has a single CE pressurized water reactor generating about 480 megawatts of electricity, the smallest commercial power reactor in North America.

OPPD is “a customer-owned utility,” which provides electricity to about 346,000 customers in all or parts of 13 counties in east and southeast Nebraska.

“Floodwaters are already surrounding the Fort Calhoun plant. The river has risen 1.5 feet higher than Fort Calhoun’s 1,004-foot elevation above sea level, but the water is being held back by an 8-foot-tall flood barrier,” a report said on Friday.

“When the river reaches 1,004 feet above mean sea level, we shut down,” said OPPD spokesman Jeff Hanson. “We don’t have any idea when we’ll be able to start again.”

OPPD has not issued any updates since June 16, 2011.

Map of the flight restricted areas. Click image to enlarge.

News Links:

• Nebraska Nuclear Plant Lost Cooling System After Fire
• NRC Notification of Unusual Event 
• Temporary flight restrictions

Related Links

• Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Mega Disaster in the Making
• Fukushima NPP: “There must be a large leak”

• Unreported News: Motion to Dump Japan’s Nuclear Power Plants
• Shut Nuclear Plants: Electric Power Co Stockholders
• Storm Shuts Down 3  TVA Nuclear Reactors at Browns Ferry in Alabama

• Chernobyl nuclear disaster: 25th anniversary
• Tornado Damage Forces Virginia Nuclear Plant Shutdown
• Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

China Floods: Deaths, Displacement & Climbing Food Prices

China: Textbook Drought and Deluge

First came the crop-destroying drought, then the floods submerged everything

Extreme rains have inundated large parts of several provinces  in China affecting millions of people according to China’s official news agency.

Torrential rains have also triggered landslide destroying homes, roads, bridges, dykes, and other infrastructure, killing many people.

The official death toll for June  flooding stands at about 110, with 70 or so people missing. The actual figures may be several time as many.

Original Caption: Heavy rain continued to batter many parts of southern China on Saturday, causing flooding and a host of other problems in at least three provinces. Source: CNTV. Image may be subject to copyright.

The Drought

“The drought beginning from spring, the worst in 50 years in some regions, still affects 72.19 million mu (4.81 million hectares) of farmland nationwide. The extreme drought left 630,000 people short of drinking water in the five provinces in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, Minister of Water Resources said.” Source

Climbing Food Prices

Food prices in China are forecast to surge by at least 14.2% analysts have said.

“The torrential rain has submerged much of the region’s vegetable farm land. Statistics from the agricultural department of Zhejiang Province show rainfall has reduced vegetable production by about 20 percent,” a report said.

Millions of people in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong provinces have already been affected by the shortages.

• Flood video

Related Links

• Climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks”

Nabro Volcano’s Pre-eruption Photo

Nabro: A closer look at a neglected volcano

Nabro volcano erupted on June 12, 2011 apparently for the first time in recorded history.

The volcano is located in Eritrea and forms a larger complex with the Mallahle caldera to the southwest.

The following photo, taken by astronauts (cosmonauts?) aboard the ISS, show the large horseshoe-shaped caldera extending 8 kilometers (5 miles) in diameter. The opening to the southwest seems to have formed as a result of a major lateral collapse. Two infant calderas sit within the main basin.

The volcano was still erupting, though less vigorously, according to Toulouse VAAC,  as of posting.

Nabro Volcano photo taken from ISS on January 30, 2011. Astronaut photograph ISS026-E-23526. Nabro has spewed large amounts of SO2, reportedly the highest levels ever detected from space, according to preliminary estimates from NASA/GFSC. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links

• VolcanoWatch 16 June 2011
• Nabro Volcano Eruption – Satellite Images
• NABRO Volcano Ash Charts
• Afar Triangle Volcano Erupts as Forecast

North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20

Fire and Smoke Hazards Maps for June 20, 2011

Smoke from more than 400 wildfires across 11 states, including 37 large fires, is contributing to the poor air quality.

Fire Stats

• Wildfires are burning across the states of Alaska (2), Arizona (3), Colorado (2) , Florida (11), Georgia (4), Mississippi (2), New Mexico (3), North Carolina (1), Tennessee (1) Texas (8) and Virginia (1).
• Nationwide, about 8 million acres [FIRE-EARTH estimate] have  been consumed since the beginning of 2011 (official figure: 4,299,810 acres as of June 17, 2011)
• The 2001 – 2010 ten-year average: 1,387,760 acres burned
• Wildfires in 2011 have so far consumed more than 6 times the ten-year average, and rising.
• National Preparedness Level is currently 3 (On a scale from 1 to 5)
• State of Texas has the 2011 record with 2,950,969 acres burned so far (TFS data as of June 17, 2011; state preparedness Level: 4)
• State of Arizona is in second place with at least 840,000 acres burned (data: InciWeb)
• RED FLAG and Excessive Heat Warnings are currently operating in at least 10 states. (See hazards map below.)
• Critical fire conditions are worsening due to the low humidity, strong winds and high temperatures across most of the southern United States.

Current HMS Fire and Smoke Analysis

Analyzed Fires and Smoke from Satellite on NESDIS ArcIMS server. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH. Click images to enlarge.

US Weather Hazards Map – June 20

Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to enter NWS interactive portal.

• MISSOURI: – Click for more information.” href=”http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=satnpwewx”>Heat Advisory Is In Effect For Portions Of South Central Texas

US weather forecast Map – June 19 – 20

Related Links

• Arizona Wildfires Update – June 19
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17
• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

Arizona Wildfires Update – June 19

Wallow Fire Crosses US 180, Burns Toward Luna, NM 

(Posted June 18, 2011 at 7:30 p.m.) Strong southwest winds have caused the Wallow Fire to breach containment lines along US 180, on the east side of the fire. The fire is burning toward Luna, New Mexico which, as of 3:15 p.m., is being evacuated.

• High winds have also caused very active fire behavior in the Blue River area.
• A Red Flag Warning to continue Sunday because of strong winds and low relative humidity.
• Southwest winds are expected to increase to 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph.
• Humidity is in the single digits.
• Strong winds and low relative humidity could create extreme fire behavior.

The Landsat 5 satellite captured this image of Wallow Fire, consuming a large section of eastern Arizona forests on June 15 at 3:54 pm EDT. In this false-colored image burn scars appear in red and ongoing fire in bright red. Vegetation is colored green, smoke is colored blue and bare ground is tan-colored. Source: USGS.

Wallow Fire Summary:

• Size: 500,409 acres total
• Percent Contained: 38%
• Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee counties; White Mountain Apache Reservation; San Carlos Apache Reservation, Ariz.; Catron County, N.M.
• Injuries to Date: 11
• Total Personnel: 4,152, including 19 hotshot crews; 64 handcrews
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed; 1 damaged
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed

Wallow Fire Evacuations

Source: Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests’ photostream

Public Safety Issues

• Smoke from the ongoing wildfires in AZ will continue to impact southwestern NM.
• Apache County is in contact with local Fire Departments to begin the process of staging sandbag locations in anticipation of the monsoon season. Burned areas can produce significantly more run-off resulting in flooding, mud and debris flows. More information will be provided as locations are confirmed.

Current Evacuations

• Luna, NM was evacuated as of 3:15 p.m. today.
• Evacuations remain in effect in Sunrise, Greer and Blue River.

Evacuee Information

• An evacuation center is open at the High School in Reserve, NM for Luna residents.
• 10 a.m. daily evacuee meetings will be held at the former Evacuation Center at Blue Ridge High School.
• Arizona evacuees whose Post Office is closed may pick up their mail at the Eagar Post Office.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

• A pre-evacuation alert continues in Apache County for Greens Peak, Hidden Meadows Lodge and surrounding areas.
• Residents in these communities are asked to remain prepared for evacuation.

Horseshoe Two Fire
(Posted on June 18, 2011, at 9:15 p.m.) The Horseshoe Two fire is 210,331 acres and is estimated to be 75 percent contained.

Fire Summary

• Size: 210,331 acres
• Percent Contained: 75%
• Location: Portal, Arizona
• Total structures destroyed: 23
• Cost to Date: $44,412,804
• Source: Great Basin 2 Incident Management Team

Monument Fire Update

Location: Coronado National Memorial/Coronado National Forest

New Evacuations Announced as of 5:15 pm, 6/18/2011

Hard (Mandatory) Evacuation: All areas north of Hereford Rd, east of Y Lightning Rd, South of Ramsey Rd, East to San Pedro River.

Pre-Evacuation: All areas north of Ramsey Road, east of Y Lightning Rd. south of Buffalo Soldier Trail/Lower Ranch Road to the San Pedro River.

Pre-Evacuation Areas:
Most Current Alert: Cochise County Sheriff’s Office Information Alert

Fire Summary

• Size: 20,956 acres
• Percent Contained: 27%
• Location: 4 Miles east of Hereford, Az
• Current Weather
• Temperature: 96 degrees
• Humidity: 7%

Track Fire, NM

• Date of Origin: Monday June 27th, 2011 approx. 11:00 AM
• Location: 1 Mile North of Raton, NM
• Size: 27,140 acres
• Percent Contained: 45%
• Current Weather
• Wind Conditions: 20 G/35 mph SW
• Temperature: 84 degrees
• Humidity: 14%

New Mexico:

• MillerFire
• Loop Fire

Alaska

• Coal Creek Fire
• Hastings

North Carolina: Pains Bay Fire
Texas: Dos Amigos FIRE

Honey Prairie Complex

• Size; 231,018 Acres
• Contained: 54%
• Click HERE for additional info
  

Texas Initial Attack 2011

• West Texas total: 251 fires for 24,073 acres. New: 10. New acres: 385.
• East Texas total: 776 fires for 10,846 acres. New: 13. New acres: 175.

Florida: Bicy Oil Pad Fire Complex

• Cause: Lightning
• Location: Big Cypress National Preserve (FL)
• Size: 9,500 acres

A new start – the Corral Fire – occurred on Thursday, June 16, 2011 increasing the number of active fires within the complex to five. A map of approximate locations of active fires posted at http://www.nps.gov/bicy/naturescience/oil-pad-fire-complex.htm

Related Links

• Brace for the Worst Ever
• U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17
• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

Back to the Primordial Future

Hazardous Weather Outlook in 50 States

Red Flag, Severe Weather, Tornado and Flood Warnings,  Hazardous Weather Outlook Throughout the U.S.

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months. FIRE-EARTH models forecast:

Food production:

• Average decline of 22% in the global agricultural output
• Loss of topsoil and worsening of soil quality
• Increases in the size and occurrence of dead zones
• Large decline in marine food sources

Spread of Disease

• Substantial increases in the spread of diseases
• vector borne
• Air borne
• water borne
• food borne
• Increase in the spread of human immunodeficiency
• Significant decline in air quality (and corresponding increase in chronic respiratory diseases)
• Worsening of water pollution

Physical Safety

Major increases in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as large scale displacements due to the loss of shelter and livelihood caused by extreme weather and geophysical events including:

• Tornadoes
• Hurricanes
• Storms and Extreme Weather
• Flash Flooding
• Drought and Deluge
• Extremes of Temperature
• Wildfires
• Loss of “Seasons”
• Earthquakes*
• Tsunamis*
• Volcanic activity*

The Combined Effect

Social upheaval, regional conflicts and wars caused by mass migrations and scarcity of basic resources resulting from the combined effects of the above.

Click image to enter NWS interactive portal.

Weather Forecast Map 18-19 June

Click image to enlarge.

GOES Western US SECTOR Infrared Image

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image

Click images to enlarge.

*[NOTE: Earth's geophysical activity help the planet to stay alive and healthy. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are among natural phenomena that comprise our planet's defense mechanisms. If you have difficulty understanding the concept of planetary self defense, consider the protective role of Earth's magnetic field against solar winds. Whereas CMEs, solar winds and geomagnetic storms are classified as external threats, the impact of harmful human activity on the planet can be regarded as internal threats.]

Artist’s impression of Earth’s magnetosphere. Source: NASA.

Simulation of Earth’s magnetic field in interaction with (solar) interplanetar magnetic field (IMF): The animation illustrates the dynamical changes of the global magnetic field in the course of a disturbance: a temporary compression of the magnetosphere by enhanced flow of the solar wind is followed by a tailward stretching of the field lines. Eventually, the increase of the tail magnetic field results in a sudden collapse of the nightside field (a substorm) and a gradual recovery of the magnetosphere to its pre-storm configuration. Source: NASA.

A Message to the Discovery Channel Science Team

Unless otherwise stated, ideas, concepts and information posted on this blog are the intellectual properties of the blog authors. Plagiarizing these ideas are unethical and run against the spirit of science.

Related Links

• U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17
• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Monument Fire Explodes

Monument Fire grows by 100% in 10 hrs;  Gov Brewer declares emergency

Current size: 19,335 acres [17, 2011 at 1:45 pm MST]
Containment: 15% (dropped from 17%)

About 2,000 families have so far been evacuated as the fire forces closure of Highway 92, reports said.

(Posted June 17, 2011 at 1:45 pm MST) All residents in the area of the Monument Fire are encouraged to make advanced arrangements for livestock and large animals to be moved, which will allow an evacuation process to run more smoothly if necessary.

• Date of Origin: Sunday June 12th, 2011 approx. 01:16 PM
• Location: Palominas Fire District
• Size: 19,335 acres
• Percent Contained: 15%
• Fuels Involved: Short grass, drought stressed mixed conifer, chaparral, and brush.
• Fire Behavior: Extreme fire behavior with sustained runs,medium spotting, and flame lengths in excess of 20 to 30 feet.
• Growth Potential: Extreme
• Terrain Difficulty: Extreme
• Temperature: 92 degrees
• Humidity: 12%
• State of Emergency exists in Cochise County

Other Details

Pre-Evacuation Areas: East of Highway 92: Ramsey Road north to Camino Principal and east to Campobello

Fire Location: Now coming down Miller Canyon closing in on Highway 92/ potentially crossing at that location

Closures/Evacuations

• Ash Canyon, Hunter Canyon, Stump Canyon (both upper and lower), Turkey Track, will remain closed until further notice.
• Highway 92 closed at Ramsey Road on the north and Palominas Road on the south. All traffic coming from Bisbee to Sierra Vista DO NOT USE Highway 92. All traffic going to Bisbee from Sierra Vista DO NOT USE Highway 92.
• Ramsey Road is closed at Moson Road
• Ramsey Road is closed at Hargis Ranch Road

Evacuation

As of 2:30  PM (MST) on June 17  evacuations are underway at the following:

• West side of Highway 92 on Yaqui west to Calle Matate / north to Choctaw Drive / east to Highway 92. Assisting with the evacuations today are members of the Santa Cruz County Sheriff’s Office, Pima County Sheriff’s Office, Graham County Sheriff’s Office, and Pinal County Sheriff’s Office.  (Source: Northern Rockies Incident Management Team)

Damage

“Officials said the update on the fire’s toll is 47 burned homes and 14 out-buildings destroyed in the Coronado National Forest near Sierra Vista.” Source

Wallow Fire Update

• Size: 495,016 acres total [official estimate]
• Containment: 38%
  

• Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee
• Injuries to Date: 10
• White Mountain Apache Reservation, San Carlos Apache Reservation, Arizona; Catron County, New Mexico
• Total Personnel: 4,418
• Residences: 2,714 threatened; 32 destroyed;
• 5 damaged
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed; 1 damaged
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed.

Wallow Fire false-color image taken on June 15, 2011 by the Landsat 5 satellite. “The slightly blue blur is smoke, and dots of bright orange-red on the south side of the burn are active fires. Unburned forest is green, and sparsely vegetated land is pink.” Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (3 MB, JPEG)

Horseshoe Two  Fire – The Expensive Blaze

(Posted June 17, 2011 at 9:40 pm MST) The Horseshoe Two Fire is burning on the Coronado National Forest near Portal, Ariz.

• Size: 206,314 acres
• Containment: 70%
• Date started: May 8, 2011
• Number of Personnel: 1,284
• Total structures destroyed: 23
• Cost to Date: $43,271,795
• Source: Great Basin 2 Incident Management Team

 

Related Links

• Brace for the Worst Ever
• U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17
• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

Puyehue Ash: Seamless Satellite Imagery

Another bleeding edge satellite imagery by NASA

Now you see it, now you don’t! Satellite images of ash from Puyehue-Cordón Caulle

The image bands show the density of aerosols released from the eruption at the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic complex as measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite between June 5, 2011, one day after the eruption,  through June 13. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

CORDON CAULLE Eruption Update

• CONTINUOUS EMISSION OBS ASH: June 17, 2011 at 19:30UTC

• MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF REMANENT ASH FROM PREVIOUS EMISSION AT FL140 (~ 4km) CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST 50KT (~ 90km/hr)

• [Source: BUENOS AIRES VAAC ]

Related Links

VolcanoWatch 16 June 2011

• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity
• Puyehue Eruption – Recent Satellite Images
• Ash from Puyehue Cordón Caulle over Australia and NZ
• Puyehue Volcano Ash Clouding SH Skies
• Puyehue ash raises river temp, kills salmon stock
• Puyehue Volcano Satellite Images
• Puyehue volcano update
• Chile’s Puyehue volcano explodes

FIRE-EARTH Volcano Watch

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• World’s Dormant Volcanoes Firing
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17

Wallow Fire prompts pre-evacuation alert due to high winds,  active fire behavior

Fire Summary:

• Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee
• Injuries to Date: 8
• Counties, San Carlos Apache Tribal Lands and White Mountain Apache Indian Reservations, Arizona; Catron County, New Mexico;
• Total Personnel: 4,571
• Date Started: 05/29/2011
• Residences: 2,714 threatened; 32 destroyed; 5 damaged
• Size: 495,016 acres total
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Percent Contained: 33%
• Resources: 4,571 personnel; 15 Helicopters, 5 Air Tankers available; 312 Engines; 75 Water Tenders; 22 Dozers
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed;1 damaged;
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed.

Wallow Fire Map – June 16, 2011

Click image to enlarge (1.91 MB)

Fire Update

A pre-evacuation alert has been issued for the south side of Eagar due to high winds and active fire behavior. Fire fighters are currently attacking at least one spot fire caused by high winds. US 180/191 between Alpine and Springerville has been re-closed as of 2:40PM today, although Nutrioso residents are being escorted on HWY 180 to their homes.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for Thursday and Friday from 11 AM to 8 PM MST due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Winds will be from the southwest from 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Conditions will be dry with relative humidities of 5% to 12%. Critical fire weather conditions can be expected today through Sunday.

• Air quality in parts of Cochise County could be considered hazardous because of heavy smoke from the Monument Fire burning south of Sierra Vista.

• State, Feds Meet to Assess Post-Fire Flooding Threats in AZ

Air Quality Monitor Maps – June 16, 2011

Hourly Ozone AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

Hourly PM2.5 AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

AQI color chart – air pollution hazard by EPA. Click to enlarge.

Horseshoe 2 Fire
Date Started: Sunday May 08th, 2011 approx. 11:00 AM
Location: T28S R31E Sect 32, Near Portal, AZ
Total Personnel: 1,335
Size: 184,198 acres
Percent Contained: 65%
Estimated Containment Date: Wednesday June 22nd, 2011 approx. 06:00 PM
Temperature: 95 degrees
Humidity: 6%

Pains Bay Fire – Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, NC
Cause: Lightning
Date of Origin: Thursday May 05th, 2011 approx. 02:30 PM
Location: Dare County, NC
Size: 45,294 acres

Track Fire, NM
Date of Origin: Sunday June 12th, 2011 approx. 11:00 AM
Location: 1 Mile North of Raton, NM
Size: 26,533 acres
Percent Contained: 25%

Hastings Fire Alaska
Date of Origin: Monday May 30th, 2011 approx. 03:15 PM
Location: Chatanika RIver; 15 miles NW of Fairbanks
Size: 23,110 acres
Percent Contained: 41%

Canyon Fire, TX
Date of Origin: Tuesday May 24th, 2011 approx. 07:15 PM
Location: 4 miles SE of Canyon, TX
Size: 16,803 acres
Percent Contained: 90%

Dos Amigos Fire, TX
Date of Origin: Wednesday June 08th, 2011 approx. 12:30 PM
Location: 15 miles W. of Robert Lee, TX
Size:19,391 acres
Percent Contained: 95%

Bird Ranch 2 Fire, TX
Cause: Lightning
Date of Origin Saturday June 11th, 2011 approx. 03:30 PM
Location: 13 miles W. of Paducah, TX
Size: 29,976 acres
Percent Contained: 90%

Texas Initial Attack 2011, TX
Date of Origin: Tuesday February 22nd, 2011 approx. 06:00 AM
Location: Merkel, TX
Size: 34,268 acres
Temperature: 100-110 degrees
Humidity: 15-30%

East Volkmar Fire, Alaska
Cause: Lightning
Date of Origin: Thursday May 26th, 2011 approx. 11:05 AM
Location: 25 miles northeast of Delta Junction.
Size: 58,050 acres
Percent Contained: 26%

Honey Prairie Complex Fire, GA
Cause: Lightning; Racepond: Under Investigation
Date of Origin: Thursday April 28th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
Location: Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 5 mi NE of Fargo, GA
Size: 196,369 acres
Percent Contained: 49%

Loop Fire, NM
Date of Origin: Monday June 13th, 2011 approx. 02:15 PM
Location: Carlsbad Caverns National Park
Size: 30,438 acres
Percent Contained: 70%

Coal Creek Fire, Alaska
Date of Origin Saturday May 21st, 2011 approx. 02:00 PM
Location Near Healy, AK
Size: 23,930 acres
Percent Contained: 80%

Miller Fire, Gila National Forest
Date of Origin: Thursday April 28th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
Location: 25 miles North of Silver City
Size: 88,835 acres
Percent Contained: 90%

Tunner Fire, Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado
Date of Origin: Sunday May 08th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
Location: USFS
Size: 17,482 acres
Percent Contained: 95%

Crooked Creek Complex Fire, NM
Cause Lighting
Date of Origi:n Friday May 06th, 2011 approx. 12:30 PM
Location: 15 miles northwest of Hope, NM
Size: 18,196 acres
Details of containment unclear.

Last Chance Fire, NM
Size: 53,342 acres
Details of containment unclear.

[Source: InciWeb ]

Related Links

• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings

• A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT

• Flooding Missouri River forces closure of Interstate 29 in four states

RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED ACROSS 8 STATES

Smoke from wildfires in the US (and Canada) are impacting the air quality in the country.

 Weather Hazards Map for June 17, 2011

Click image to enter NWS portal.

US weather Forecast Map: June 16 – 17

Air Quality Monitor Maps – June 16, 2011

Hourly Ozone AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

Hourly PM2.5 AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

AQI color chart – air pollution hazard by EPA. Click to enlarge.

Related Links

• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update