VolcanoWatch 16 June 2011

Kizimen: Volcano of the Week

Activity of Kizimen volcano at 09:00 UTC on June 12, 2011. Photo by Yu. Demyanchuk from Klyuchevskoy volcano flank. Source KVERT. Image may be subject to copyright.

Kizimen Volcano blew out a plume of ash, smoke and steam over the  Gulf of Kamchatka on February 1, 2011.  Kizimen recent eruptions are said to be both explosive and effusive. This natural-color image was taken by the MODIS aboard the Aqua satellite. Source: NASA-EO. Click images to enlarge.

Kizimen Volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula (elev. 8,153 ft/2,485 m: KVERT 13 june 2011),  ejected a plume of ash, steam and volcanic gasses on January 6, 2011, when ALI on NASA’s EO-1 satellite captured this natural-color image.  Kizimen had released continuous ash emissions since December 31, 2010, KVERT reported. Kizimen erupted explosively 83 years ago. Source: NASA-EO. 

Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

(based on SI /USGS report for 8 June-14 June 2011)

New activity/unrest:

• Mt Aso, Kyushu (Japan)  — [Group J]
• Dieng Volcanic Complex, Central Java (Indonesia)  — [Group K]
• Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)  — [Group J]
• Nabro, Eritrea — [Group C]
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile —  [Group D] 
• Yasur, Vanuatu (SW Pacific)  — [Group L]

FEWW Map of Volcanoes

Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Kizimen Volcano Alert: KVERT

• Issued: 20110613/01:29UTC
• Volcano: Kizimen (1000-23)
• Aviation Color Code: Red
• Source: KVERT
• Notice number: 2011/26
• Volcano Location: 55°08′N, 160°19′E
• Area: Kamchatka, Russia
• Summit Elevation (feet/meters): 8,153 ft/2,485 m
• Height of ash plume (feet/km) ASL and how determined: 6562 ft/ 2 km- Satellite
• Distance of ash plume from the volcano (mi/km): 323.18 mi/520 km
• Direction of ash plume or ash cloud drift from the volcano: East
• Time and method of observation: 20110613/0129Z – NOAA 19 (4m5)
• Start time of explosion and how determined: 2011/Z – unknown
• Duration of eruption (or indicate eruption is continuing): eruption is continuing

Ongoing Activity:

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Mayon, Luzon
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
• Tengger Caldera, Eastern Java (Indonesia)

Recent Satellite Images

Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Satellite Images Showing Floating Pumice

Massive eruptions at Chile’s Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex ejected volcanic rocks a distance of at least 20 kilometers from the center of volcano. This photo-like satellite image taken by the ALI aboard the EO-1 satelliteon on June 14, 2011,  and shows pumice floating on a mountain lake east of the volcano. Source: NASA-EO. Click images to enlarge.

Nabro Volcano EO-1 Satellite Image

Nabro eruption image taken by by the ALI aboard EO-1 satellite on June 14, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity

Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]

For this forecast, EarthModel calculated about 12,000 variables using more than 200 trillion discrete computational steps in each simulation.

In the case of a previous forecast, The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt, posted on April 22, 2010, the Model performed about 40 times as many steps.

FIRE-EARTH also employs other models including EARTH ENERGY MODEL (EEM), designed by EDRO, and several probabilistic and dynamic models.

The blog forecasts are based on deep knowledge of geophysics and very high level simulation of computer modeling.

A Note to Internet Prophets

If you are copying the results of FIRE-EARTH research, often  posted on the blog as incidental summaries, and representing them as that of your own using “mundane astrology,” or “psychic and para-normal abilities,” as a blogger recently put it, “to portend a significant period on earth of profound change,” then you would be acting disingenuously and maliciously.

By making false prophecies you would only contribute to compounding the human ignorance, albeit that of the gullible internet dwellers.

Most intelligent Internet users would instantly see through prophecies like: “The period between 2012 and 2016 will see drastic ‘readjustments’ as 7 transiting to transiting squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn cause wide spread dislocations, famine, earthquakes, tornandoes, floods, volcanoes and a period of very dry weather; alternating between hot and cold.”

Please refrain from spreading ignorance on the Internet.

Japanese Authorities Lie Again

Japan’s March 11 death-toll figures don’t add up: survivors

The ever-conspiring Japanese authorities say about 15,000 people died in the March 11 disasters and up to 8,000 are missing.  The survivors say count again!

In one fishing village alone about 9,000 are missing, the survivors say.

Bereaved family members of victims of the earthquake and tsunami watch as an excavator digs a temporary mass grave site in Higashi Matsushima, northern Japan March 23, 2011. Credit: Reuters/ Yuriko Nakao

The village of Otsuchi had a population of 15,277, according to the  October 2010 national census, a report said.

Three months after the fateful Megaquake, followed by 15-meter high tsunami waves struck the village,  the local officials can “verify that 6,466 people are living: 1,969 people in shelters and 4,497 in homes on higher ground.” A quick head count of the survivors reveals that 8,811 must have perished.

Understandably, the village officials say the government numbers don’t add up.

FIRE-EARTH estimates that a total of about 46,000 people perished or are missing as a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami disasters on March 11, 2011.

Unfortunately, the Japanese government is not alone in falsifying disaster records.

Haiti Earthquake 2010

A year earlier, the Haitian government, aided by the international charity mafia, and their News Network, claimed at least a third of a million people had died as a result of the 7.1Mw quake that struck the capital of Port-au-Prince on January 12, 2010.

FIRE-EARTH believes that the number of deaths and serious  injuries from the quake could not have possibly exceeded 5,000 (FIVE THOUSAND).

Christchurch Earthquake

Earlier this year, the NZ government put the number of dead from the Christchurch earthquake at 181.

Reliable sources have informed FIRE-EARTH that many more  people [figure withheld by FIRE-EARTH] had actually lost their lives in that tragedy.

Joplin Tornado

Then, Joplin tornado struck: Tornado Dead to Haunt Missouri Officials

Related Links

• Another Strong Aftershock Strikes Chile
• New Zealand Earthquake UPDATE Feb 24
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts
• The ever-conspiring Japanese nuke officials have doubled estimate for the radiation that escaped from the doomed Fukushima NPP after the March 11 mega quake and tsunami from 370,000 terabecquerels to 770,000 terabecquerels, a report said.

M6.6 Strikes NEW BRITAIN REGION, PNG

Strong earthquake strikes near Kimbe, New Britain, PNG

Earthquake Location Map

Source: USGS-EHP. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

EQ Details

• Magnitude: 6.6
• Date-Time: Thursday, June 16, 2011 at 00:03:36 UTC
• Location: 5.994°S, 151.095°E
• Depth: 21.5 km (13.4 miles)
• Region: NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
• Distances:
• 115 km (71 miles) ESE of Kimbe, New Britain, PNG
• 173 km (107 miles) E of Kandrian, New Britain, PNG
• 577 km (358 miles) NE of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
• 2389 km (1484 miles) N of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 15 km (9.3 miles); depth +/- 7.3 km (4.5 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: usc00048pr

Tsunami Status

NO warning, watch or advisory currently in place, PTWC said.

Typical Tsunami Travel Time from PNG Region (included for reference ONLY)

Related Links

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• World’s Dormant Volcanoes Firing
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

Wallow Fire Continues to Grow

Wallow Fire Progression Map – June 15, 2011

Map prepared on June 14, 2011 @ 23:44 (?) and is said to be based on IR heat perimeter. Source: InciWeb. Click image to enlarge (1.8MB)

Wallow Fire – Basic Information [from InciWeb]

• Date of Origin: Sunday May 29th, 2011 approx. 01:30 PM
• Location:  Eastern AZ near Alpine, Nutrioso, and Springerville
• Current Situation
• Total Personnel: 4,656
• Size: 478,452 acres
• Percent Contained: 29%
• Fuels Involved:10 Timber (litter and understory)

• Fire Behavior: Active backing fire with isolated interior torching and short uphill runs where topography and winds align.
• Growth Potential: high
• Terrain Difficulty: high

• Current Weather
• Wind Conditions: 5-16 G25 mph SW
• Temperature:  76-87 degrees
• Humidity: 6-8%

• Fort Apache Reservation Fire restrictions remain in effect. See http://www.wmat.nsn.us/

Current Evacuations

• Evacuations remain in effect in Sunrise, Greer, Blue River and Alpine.
• The communities of Greer, and Alpine remain evacuated due to continued active fire behavior in unburned islands within and around these communities. Hazardous burned-out trees, unstable slopes and rockfall, as well as burned out power poles are being evaluated and mitigated.

Evacuee Information

• Today’s 10 A.M. meeting for evacuees only will be held at the Blue Ridge H. S. in Pinetop/Lakeside.
• Evacuees whose Post Office is closed may pick up their mail at the Eagar Post Office.
• The evacuation center is located at Blue Ridge High School, 1200 W. White Mtn. Blvd., Pinetop/Lakeside. The phone number for the Red Cross operated evacuation center is (602) 336-6660.
•  Residents with livestock or animals that need care should contact the Apache County Sheriff’s Office (928) 337-4321 or the Greenlee County Sheriff’s Office (928) 865-4149.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

• A pre-evacuation alert continues in Apache County for Greens Peak, Hidden Meadows Lodge and surrounding areas.
• A pre-evacuation alert by the Catron County Sheriff’s Office continues for Luna, New Mexico.
• Residents in the communities affected by this fire are asked to remain prepared for evacuation.
• Road Closures according to Arizona Department of Transportation: http://www.azdot.gov

Horse Shoe Two Fire

Fire Summary

• Bulletin released on June 15, 2011 9:00 pm (MST)
• Date of Origin: Sunday May 08th, 2011 approx. 11:00 AM
• Location: T28S R31E Sect 32, Near Portal, AZ
• Total Personnel: 1,379
• Size: 184,198 acres
• Percent Contained: 60%
• Estimated Containment Date: Wednesday June 22nd, 2011 approx. 06:00 PM
• Fuels Involved: Mixed conifer, oak brush, pinyon,juniper, ponderosa pine and grasses.
• Growth Potential: Extreme
• Terrain Difficulty: Extreme
• Current Weather
• Temperature: 98 degrees
• Humidity: 4%

Horseshoe Two Fire Satellite Image

Arizona’s Horseshoe Two fire was burning in two separate areas on June 14, when MODIS on the Terra satellite captured this photo-like image. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge. NOTE: The largest image of this event show both the Wallow Fire, Arizona’s largest ever, and a major fire in Mexico.

Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (southern Georgia)

Honey Prairie Complex :180,998 acres burned 75% Contained (consists of Honey Prairie and Paxton Road Fire)

The Honey Prairie Complex fire in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge in southern Georgia was reportedly started by lightning on April 28, 2011. This image was taken by MODIS on the Terra satellite on June 13, 2011.  Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.  

Related Links

• Wildfire Forces Evacuation of White City, NM
• Wallow Mega Fire – June 14 Update
• Red Flag Warnings, Missouri River flooding, Severe T-storms
• Wallow Fire – June 13 Update [more links can be found on the page.]

Nabro Volcano Eruption – Satellite Images

FIRE-EARTH Volcano Forecast: Major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland this summer with a probability of 0.7 [P= 72%]

Nabro’s SO2 Rich Plume Rising to a Height of 11 km

Thick, fluffy white volcanic plume spewing from Nabro volcano is mainly composed of sulfur dioxide gas (and steam), according to Toulouse VAAC, Meteo France.

Their analysis is confirmed by the modeled ash concentration charts released by the agency (see below forFL200 – FL350 chart).

Ongoing eruption at Nabro Volcano located along the Eritrea and Ethiopia border. This photo-like image was captured by MODIS aboard the Aqua satellite on June 15, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.  Download largest image (1 MB, JPEG)

Volcanic Ash Advisory

Volcanic cloud spewed by Nabro is said to contain mainly SO2. Source: Meteo France. Click image to enlarge.

Nabro volcanic ash cloud concentration chart for FL200 – FL350 (~ 6 to 11km alt.) Source: Toulouse VAAC/Meteo France 

Related Links

• NABRO Volcano Ash Charts
• Nabro Volcano Erupts as Forecast
• Significant earthquakes strike Ethiopia, New Zealand

New type of HFMD virus spreading across Vietnam

Dangerous coxsackie B2 kills 17 spreads to Hanoi

A new type of hand-foot-mouth disease virus, identified as coxsackie B2 virus, which is said to be more dangerous than the EV71 strain, has infected about 6,000 patients in 30 provinces, killing 17 of them in the southern and central provinces of Vietnam. The virus is now spreading to the capital to Hanoi, a report said.

Coxsackie B4 virus virions

Using immunoelectron microscopic technique, one is able to discern the morphologic traits of the Coxsackie B4 virus virions. In addition to the three different polioviruses, there are 61 non-polio enteroviruses that can cause disease in humans. These include the 23 Coxsackie A viruses, 6 Coxsackie B viruses, 28 echoviruses, and 4 other enteroviruses. Source: CDC

HFMD Facts [mirrored from CDC]

Description of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common viral illness of infants and children. The disease causes fever and blister-like eruptions in the mouth and/or a skin rash. HFMD is often confused with foot-and-mouth (also called hoof-and-mouth) disease, a disease of cattle, sheep, and swine; however, the two diseases are not related—they are caused by different viruses. Humans do not get the animal disease, and animals do not get the human disease.

Illness

• The disease usually begins with a fever, poor appetite, malaise (feeling vaguely unwell), and often with a sore throat.

• One or 2 days after fever onset, painful sores usually develop in the mouth. They begin as small red spots that blister and then often become ulcers. The sores are usually located on the tongue, gums, and inside of the cheeks.

• A non-itchy skin rash develops over 1–2 days. The rash has flat or raised red spots, sometimes with blisters. The rash is usually located on the palms of the hands and soles of the feet; it may also appear on the buttocks and/or genitalia.

• A person with HFMD may have only the rash or only the mouth sores.

Cause of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

• HFMD is caused by viruses that belong to the enterovirus genus (group). This group of viruses includes polioviruses, coxsackieviruses, echoviruses, and enteroviruses.

• Coxsackievirus A16 is the most common cause of HFMD in the United States, but other coxsackieviruses have been associated with the illness.

• Enteroviruses, including enterovirus 71, have also been associated with HFMD and with outbreaks of the disease.

How Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Is Spread

• Infection is spread from person to person by direct contact with infectious virus. Infectious virus is found in the nose and throat secretions, saliva, blister fluid, and stool of infected persons. The virus is most often spread by persons with unwashed, virus-contaminated hands and by contact with virus-contaminated surfaces.

• Infected persons are most contagious during the first week of the illness.

• The viruses that cause HFMD can remain in the body for weeks after a patient’s symptoms have gone away. This means that the infected person can still pass the infection to other people even though he/she appears well. Also, some persons who are infected and excreting the virus, including most adults, may have no symptoms.

• HFMD is not transmitted to or from pets or other animals.

Factors That Increase the Chance for Infection or Disease

• Everyone who has not already been infected with an enterovirus that causes HFMD is at risk of infection, but not everyone who is infected with an enterovirus becomes ill with HFMD.

• HFMD occurs mainly in children under 10 years old but can also occur in adults. Children are more likely to be at risk for infection and illness because they are less likely than adults to have antibodies to protect them. Such antibodies develop in the body during a person’s first exposure to the enteroviruses that cause HFMD.

• Infection results in immunity to (protection against) the specific virus that caused HFMD. A second case of HFMD may occur following infection with a different member of the enterovirus group.

Diagnosis of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

• HFMD is one of many infections that result in mouth sores. However, health care providers can usually tell the difference between HFMD and other causes of mouth sores by considering the patient’s age, the symptoms reported by the patient or parent, and the appearance of the rash and sores.

• Samples from the throat or stool may be sent to a laboratory to test for virus and to find out which enterovirus caused the illness. However, it can take 2–4 weeks to obtain test results, so health care providers usually do not order tests.

Treatment and Medical Management of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

• There is no specific treatment for HFMD.
• Symptoms can be treated to provide relief from pain from mouth sores and from fever and aches:
  • Pain and fever can be treated with over-the-counter medications (caution: aspirin should not be given to children).
  • Mouthwashes or sprays that numb pain can be used to lessen mouth pain.
• Fluid intake should be enough to prevent dehydration (lack of body fluids). If moderate-to-severe dehydration develops, it can be treated medically by giving fluids through the veins.

Prevention of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

• A specific preventive for HFMD is not available, but the risk of infection can be lowered by following good hygiene practices.
• Good hygiene practices that can lower the risk of infection include
  • Washing hands frequently and correctly (see Clean Hands Save Lives! ) and especially after changing diapers and after using the toilet
  • Cleaning dirty surfaces and soiled items, including toys, first with soap and water and then disinfecting them by cleansing with a solution of chlorine bleach (made by adding 1 tablespoon of bleach to 4 cups of water)
  • Avoiding close contact (kissing, hugging, sharing eating utensils or cups, etc.) with persons with HFMD

Vaccination Recommendations

• No vaccine is available to protect against the enteroviruses that cause HFMD.

Complications of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

• Complications from the virus infections that cause HFMD are not common, but if they do occur, medical care should be sought.

• Viral or “aseptic meningitis can rarely occur with HFMD. Viral meningitis causes fever, headache, stiff neck, or back pain. The condition is usually mild and clears without treatment; however, some patients may need to be hospitalized for a short time.

• Other more serious diseases, such as encephalitis (swelling of the brain) or a polio-like paralysis, result even more rarely. Encephalitis can be fatal.
• There have been reports of fingernail and toenail loss occurring mostly in children within 4 weeks of their having hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). At this time, it is not known whether the reported nail loss is or is not a result of the infection. However, in the reports reviewed, the nail loss has been temporary and nail growth resumed without medical treatment.

Trends and Statistics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

• Individual cases and outbreaks of HFMD occur worldwide. In temperate climates, cases occur more often in summer and early autumn.

• Since 1997, outbreaks of HFMD caused by enterovirus 71 have been reported in Asia and Australia.

• HFMD caused by coxsackievirus A16 infection is a mild disease. Nearly all patients recover in 7 to 10 days without medical treatment.

• HFMD caused by enterovirus 71 has shown a higher incidence of neurologic (nervous system) involvement. And fatal cases of encephalitis (swelling of the brain) caused by enterovirus 71 have occurred during outbreaks. However, these serious outcomes are still very rare.

Related pages

• Feature on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease
• Questions and Answers
• Podcast (4:20 minutes, date released: 11/30/2010)
• Publications
• Other Related Resources

Wildfire Forces Evacuation of White City, NM

Raging wildfire closes Carlsbad Caverns National Park

Air pollution from human enhanced natural events and anthropogenic causes could kill/seriously harm tens of millions of people: FIRE-EARTH

A wildfire described as “very active” by local officials has closed Carlsbad Caverns National Park in SE New Mexico, and forced evacuation of nearby White City community.

By early afternoon (MS) on June 14, the so-called Loop Fire had burned about 16,000 acres and was only 10 percent contained, according to the area incident management team.

Loop Fire was burning in Carlsbad Caverns National Park when MODIS on the Terra satellite captured this image at 12:10 p.m. MST, on June 14, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Summary: The fire is burning in steep and rugged terrain along State Highway 7 going into Carlsbad Caverns National Park off of US Highway 62/180.

• Fire Behavior: Very active fire behavior
• Growth Potential: High
• Terrain Difficulty: Steep, rugged and rocky terrian
• Current Weather: Wind Conditions 20 mph SW
• Temperature : 100 degrees
• Humidity: 5%

Special Notices: A temporary evacuation of White City, NM has been issued and Carlsbad Caverns National Park is still CLOSED for the next couple of day due to extreme fire activity.

Wallow Mega Fire – June 14 Update

Wallow Fire: Now Officially Arizona’s Largest Wildfire

Wallow Fire Progression Map – June 14, 2011

Click image to enlarge. Click here for the Largest Size 

Notes about this Map:
1. Map was prepared on June 13, 2011 at 22:38 MST (UTC -7 hours)
2. It’s incomplete.
3. It doesn’t show the extent of fire in areas marked ‘Private.’

Fire Update – June 14, 2011 8:00 AM MST

• Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee Counties, San Carlos and Fort Apache Reservations, Arizona; Carton County, New Mexico
• Injuries to Date: 7
• Total Personnel: 4,734
• Includes 24 hotshot crews; 77 hand crews
• Date Started: 05/29/2011
• Cause: Human – under investigation
• Residences: 2,714 threatened; 32 destroyed; 5 damaged
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Resources: 20 Helicopters, 5 Air Tankers available; 333 Engines; 73 Water Tenders; 20 Dozers
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed; 1 damaged
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed

• Percent Contained: 18%
• Size: 469,407 acres total
• Source: InciWeb
  

[FIRE-EARTH size estimate for Wallow Fire: ~ 535,000 acres burned as of posting.]

Current Situation and Outlook

• Current Weather: Wind Conditions 10-15 GUSTS OF 25 mph SW
• Temperature: 75-87 degrees
• Humidity: 6%
• Growth Potential: High
• Terrain Difficulty: High

• Fire Behavior: Increased winds resulted in increased fire activity including interior crown runs with moderate-range spotting where winds and topography were aligned.
• Significant Events: Active fire north of Alpine. Spotting picked up near Turner Peak and Big Lake Campground.

Wallow Fire, now also officially the largest wildfire in Arizona history, was burning across the border into New Mexico when MODIS on the Aqua satellite acquired this image on June 13 at 1:45 pm MST. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Fire Update [Source: Inciweb]

Firefighters have achieved 18% containment of the 469,407-acre Wallow Fire. While the Wallow Fire is now the largest wildfire in Arizona’s history, significant progress has been made towards containment. A previously destroyed structure at Pool Corral, in the Greer area, was confirmed yesterday. Mop up of backing fire continues in the Alpine and Tal Wi Wi communities. Burnout operations continue from FR 220 south to US 180. Structure protection activities continue in Nutrioso and Alpine. Mop up and widening of containment lines continues in the Greer and South Fork areas. Electricity has been restored to Greer and South Fork.

There was poor humidity recovery overnight and humidity will remain low today. Firefighters continued with structure protection, line improvement and mop-up on the eastern flank. Roads, dozer lines and natural barriers are being improved for use as containment lines. Crews worked to strengthen these lines along FR 281. The fire remains active in unburned areas of the fire. Good progress has been made on the fire’s southeast flank, where crews are working to slow the spread of fire and continue to build and improve containment lines and mop-up. There was minimal movement last night. On the west flank, the fire is backing to the south and further southern spread is expected.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

A pre-evacuation alert continues in Apache County for Greens Peak, Hidden Meadows Lodge and surrounding areas.

• A pre-evacuation alert by the Catron County Sheriff’s Office continues for Luna, New Mexico.
• Residents in the communities affected by this fire are asked to remain prepared for evacuate.

Road Closures according to Arizona Department of Transportation: http://www.azdot.gov

• SR 260 will open at noon today from the Hawley Lake turnoff to the South Fork junction (mileposts 369-390).
• US 191 is closed between Alpine and north of Clifton (milepost 176-253).
• SRs 261 (mileposts 395-413) and 273 (mileposts 378-394), the main access roads to Big Lake and Crescent Lake in the White Mountains, are closed.
• SR 373 that connects the town of Greer with SR 260 west of Eagar is closed (mileposts 386-391).
• US 180 is closed between SR 260 junction near Eagar and New Mexico state line (mileposts 403-433).
• In southern Arizona, SR 366 is closed at milepost 118 leading up to Mount Graham (milepost 143) near Safford after the U.S. Forest Service determined the risk of wildfire is too extreme to allow access.
• Partial area closures are in effect for the eastside of the Fort Apache Reservation.

Current Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Analysis – June 14

NESDIS Map of Analyzed Fires from Satellite Data

Click images to enlarge.

Ozone High Pollution Advisory issued for Wednesday, June 15
(Posted June 14, 2011 at 1:05 p.m.) The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) has issued an Ozone High Pollution Advisory for areas within and bordering Maricopa County for the remainder of today.

ADEQ issues an Ozone Health Watch when the highest concentration of ozone levels may exceed the federal health standard.

People with respiratory or other health problems that make them more sensitive to air pollution are advised to limit their outdoor activity.

Horseshoe Two Fire

(Posted June 14, 2011 at 10:05 p.m.) The Horseshoe Two Fire is burning on the Coronado National Forest near Portal, Ariz. It is 171,333 acres and is 60 percent contained.

Horse Shoe 2 Fire Progression Map

Click image to enlarge.

Horseshoe Two Fire, Arizona – Satellite Image

Horseshoe Two Fire is burning about 15okm to the south of Wallow Fire. This image was taken by MODIS on the Aqua satellite on June 13, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge

Official Fire Summary:

• Date started: May 8, 2011
• Estimated Containment: June 22, 2011
• Cause: Human
• Number of Personnel: 1,400
• Crews: 9 Type 1 and 30 Type 2
• Engines: 76
• Dozers: 3
• Water Tenders: 41
• Helicopters: 4 Type 1, 1 Type 2 and 3 Type 3
• Total structures destroyed: 23
• Cost to Date: $40,630,698
• Size: 171,333  acres
  
• Percent Contained: 60%
• Source: Rocky Basin 2 Incident Management Team

Special Notices
The Coronado National Forest and Chiricahua National Monument are closed due to extreme fire danger.

Resources

• Effects of Common Air Pollutants
• Ozone Fact Sheet
• Particulate Matter Fact Sheet
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Ozone brochure
• Source: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality

Puyehue Eruption – Recent Satellite Images

Ash Clouds from Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Continue to Disrupt Flights in Southern Hemisphere

The ash clouds have severely affected airline operations in South America.
Among the hardest hit airlines are Chile’s LAN and Brazil’s TAM and Gol, media reported.

“There are no signs that the situation is going to change or stabilize in the short term,” said director of Chile’s national service of geology and mining (SERNAGEOMIN).

“Fine ash, like we have seen from this latest eruption, could last (in the air) for months. If the ash column continues to measure up to 5.5 miles, it can spread easily. The higher the ash, the more it is blown elsewhere.”

Continuous eruption from Puyehue-Cordón Volcano Complex in Chile continues to eject large plumes of ash and volcanic gasses into the atmosphere, depositing thick layers of ash east of the volcano, as shown in this image captured by MODIS on the Terra satellite on June 13. The large mountain of ash could lead to deadly landslide and lahars, NASA reported SERNAGEOMIN as saying. Meantime, the ash is disrupting flights as far away as Australia and New Zealand. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (3 MB, JPEG)  

Related Links

• Ash from Puyehue Cordón Caulle over Australia and NZ
• Puyehue Volcano Ash Clouding SH Skies
• Puyehue ash raises river temp, kills salmon stock
• Puyehue Volcano Satellite Images
• Puyehue volcano update
• Chile’s Puyehue volcano explodes

FIRE-EARTH Volcano Watch

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• World’s Dormant Volcanoes Firing
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

NABRO Volcano Ash Charts

NABRO Eruption: Modeled Ash Concentration Charts

Surface to FL200 Chart [ground to about 6km altitude]

FL200-FL350 Chart [~ 6 to 11km altitude]

FL350-FL550 Chart [~ 11 to 17 km altitude]

Source: Meteo France – Toulouse VAAC. Click images to enlarge.

Volcanic Ash Advisory

See inset for Date/time details.

Copyright Eumetsat 2011

 

Related Links

• Nabro Volcano Erupts as Forecast
• Significant earthquakes strike Ethiopia, New Zealand

Afar Triangle Volcano Erupts as Forecast

Correction: Nabro Volcano in Eritrea Erupts Ejecting a 15-km Plume of Ash into the Atmosphere

Following a swarm of Earthquakes that struck within the Afar Triangle Eritrea, Ethiopia, yesterday, FIRE-EARTH said:

… there’s a strong probability that the quakes may have primed one or more regional volcanoes for eruption.

Nabro Volcano erupted around midnight Sunday local time, ejecting  a 15-km plume of ash into the air, reports said.

The volcano, which is located about 375 km southeast of the Eritrean capital Asmara, sits within the Afar Triangle, a tectonic triple junction.

Nabro volcano, Eritrea, sits close to the border with Ethiopia.  Credit: ESA/NASA.  Click image to enlarge.

Nabro eruption is captured in this photo-like image by  MODIS on the Aqua satellite on June 13, 2011. “Initial reports from news agencies and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Toulouse, France, proclaimed the eruption to be occurring at Dubbi, a volcano further south. But later reports from volcanologists, field scientists, and the satellite image above appear to confirm the eruption at Nabro. There are no historical reports of eruptions at Nabro before today.” Image and caption: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (4 MB, JPG)

The fact that there was no historic record of eruption at Nabro volcano may explain why the French VAAC got it wrong initially, attributing the eruption to the Dubbi volcano – EDRO

Nabro Volcano
Country: Eritrea
Region: Northeastern Africa
Previous Known Eruption: NOT KNOWN
Summit Elevation: 2,218 m (7,277 ft)
Coordinates : 13.37°N, 41.70°E
Source: GVP

Nabro Volcano Space Shuttle image

The large caldera below and to the left of the center of this Space Shuttle photo of the Danakil Alps of Ethiopia is Nabro. The 2218-m-high Nabro stratovolcano is the highest volcano in the Danakil depression and is truncated by nested calderas 10 and 5 km in diameter. The larger caldera is widely breached to the SW. Nabro was constructed primarily of rhyolitic lava flows and pyroclastics. The 8-km-wide Mallahle caldera is at the lower left, and the dark-colored lava flows at the right are from Dubbi volcano. NASA Space Shuttle image S-61A-36, 1985. Caption: GVP

Nabro (top) and  Mallahle (bottom) volcanic calderas. This false-color topographical image of the two volcanoes was produced by NASA. Click image to enlarge.

Map of East Africa showing some of the historically active volcanoes (red triangles) and the Afar Triangle (shaded, center)— a so-called triple junction (or triple point), where three plates are pulling away from one another: the Arabian Plate, and the two parts of the African Plate (the Nubian and the Somalian) splitting along the East African Rift Zone. Source: USGS

A map showing the approximate location of Nabro and Dubbi Volcanoes. The yellow circles mark the epicenters of the recent quakes that struck the area. Red stars are the two largest shocks in the swarm measuring 5.7Mw. Click image to enlarge.

The huge ash cloud ejected by the volcano is said to be moving across the Horn of Africa, threatening air travel. The German airline Lufthansa said on Monday it had cancelled two flights, one a flight out of the Eritrean capital Asmara, and the other into Addis Ababa.

The ash plume also forced the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to curtail her visit to the region. Ironically, Obama was forced to abandon his visit to Ireland when Iceland’s Grímsvötn volcano erupted last month.

News Links

• Eritrean volcanic ash cloud threatens air travel

Related Links

• Significant earthquakes strike Ethiopia, New Zealand

Updated on June 14, 2011 at 07:58UTC by EDRO
Updated on June 14, 2011 @ 12:01UTC by FEWW

Red Flag Warnings, Missouri River flooding, Severe T-storms

RED FLAG WARNING in 8 STATES

Numerous rivers, streams running near or above record levels

Numerous locations on the Missouri River and its northern tributaries have exceeded record levels set in 1952 and 1993 and major flooding is expected to continue for weeks into months, NOAA said.

Major to record flooding conditions stretch from Missouri River headwaters in Montana across parts of North Dakota and South Dakota. Floodwaters continue to work their way south to Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri: NWS

Click image to enter NWS portal.

Severe weather is expected from the north-central Plains to the Tennessee Valley; rain and thunderstorms for the northern Plains, eastern Washington and Oregon to southeastern Minnesota and western Kentucky and flash flooding in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, NWS said.

Major Flooding was observed on the Missouri River and tributaries this morning (June 13) at the following locations:

• Montana
  • Jefferson River near Three Forks
  • Musselshell River near Roundup
  • Milk River near Tampico
• North Dakota
  • Missouri River near Williston (crest expected Tuesday at record 30 feet)
  • Souris River near Westhope
  • Souris River near Bantry (at 14.5’ expected crest June 15 at record 14.8’
  • Souris River near Towner
  • Souris River near Foxholm (record 17.33 feet set June 11, old record was 17.2’)
• South Dakota
  • James River near Stratford
  • James River near Ashton
  • Missouri River near Greenwood (set record at 37.98’ June 8, old crest 31.89’ in 1997

Related Links

Weather Hazards Map: http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php a
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center weather threats map: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif.

Outlooks from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate much of the Missouri River from South Dakota to northern Missouri could be impacted by heavy rain from severe weather today. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather development today from eastern Wyoming across parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi. See http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html.

See http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html.

See http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html.

River levels continue to rise on the Missouri River and some tributaries. As of this morning, automated data feeds showed 145 locations across the country at some level of flooding. Thirteen sites were at Major Flood, 35 at Moderate Flood and 97 at Minor Flood. Another 106 gauge sites were at Near Flood. See graphics at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php?stage=7.

Missouri River waters are still on the rise in areas from Nebraska to Missouri. Local reports on Missouri River flooding may be found on the following web pages:

Weather Forecast Office Bismarck, North Dakota (Under Top News of the Day at) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bis

Weather Forecast Office Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Latest Missouri River Flooding Information) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fsd&storyid=69349&source=0

Weather Forecast Office Omaha, Nebraska (Additional information on the Missouri River Flooding) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=oax&storyid=69012&source=0

Weather Forecast Office Kansas City, Missouri (Flooding on the Missouri River 2011) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=moriverflood_2011

Weather Forecast Office St. Louis, Missouri (Latest Missouri River Flooding Information, Top News) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx

Nationwide rainfall forecasts for the coming five days are at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml.

Ash from Puyehue Cordón Caulle over Australia and NZ

Ash clouds from Puyehue Cordón Caulle continue to disrupt Australia, NZ flights

The ash plume from Puyehue Cordón Caulle covers southern Australia and the Tasman sea (above), as well as New Zealand and the South Pacific Ocean (below).

Both images were captured by MODIS on the Aqua satellite on June 13, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click images to enlarge.

Credit: NOAA and EUMETSAT

Puyehue-Cordón Caulle in Chile exploded on June 4, 2011 sending an ash plume to a height of about 16km, towering above the local clouds. The top image is a false-color image captured by MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite. The image is rotated clockwise by 90 degrees.  The vertical profile of the atmosphere, captured by CALIPSO, is shown in the colored graph below the MODIS image.  Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Airline Flights

Australian airline Qantas said it was too dangerous to fly through the thick clouds of ash drifting over the Pacific Ocean from  continuous eruption at CORDON CAULLE volcano in the Puyehue Volcano Complex, Chile. Accordingly, it has cancelled all its flights to and from Melbourne. The decision follows earlier flight cancellations in and out of Tasmania and most of of New Zealand.

All other airlines, with the exception of Air New Zealand, have also grounded flights in the region.

The logic-defying Air New Zealand is risking the lives of its passengers by worming in out of the ash clouds, trying to dodge the worst of the plumes. The airline said it was adjusting flight paths to steer aircraft below the ash!!

The Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand said they felt comfortable with Air New Zealand flight continuing below 20,000feet (6 km) because most of the ash appeared to be above that altitude.

“[Air New Zealand general manager airline operations and safety Captain] Capt Morgan said the MetService had advised that the ash cloud was now much higher and the Civil Aviation Authority was comfortable for domestic and trans-Tasman services to continue to operate.” a report said.

Air Travelers Don’t Seem to Get the Message!

Watch out for multiple planes falling out of the sky in the coming months due to “unknown” or “mysterious” causes.

One of the planes grounded in an Argentine airport after volcanic ash from the Puyehue Volcano eruption in early June 2011 disrupted air travel throughout the region. Credit: Reuters.

Related Links

• Puyehue Volcano Ash Clouding SH Skies
• Puyehue ash raises river temp, kills salmon stock
• Puyehue Volcano Satellite Images
• Puyehue volcano update
• Chile’s Puyehue volcano explodes

FIRE-EARTH Volcano Watch

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• World’s Dormant Volcanoes Firing
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Wallow Fire – June 13 Update

Wallow Fire is 10 percent contained: Official report

Wallow Fire official summary:

• Date/Time: June 13, 2011, at 1:18 p.m.
• Source: Area Command 3
• Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee counties; San Carlos and White Mountain Apache Reservations, Ariz.; Catron County, N.M.  
• Injuries to Date: 7
• Total Personnel: 4,349, including 23 hotshot crews and 78 hand crews
• Date Started: 05/29/2011
• Cause: Human – under investigation
• Residences: 2,714 threatened; 31 destroyed; 5 damaged
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Resources: 20 Helicopters, 5 Air Tankers available; 347 Engines; 70 Water Tenders; 22 Dozers
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed; 1 damaged;
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed.
• Size:  452,155 acres total
• Percent Contained: 10%

[ FIRE-EARTH size estimate for Wallow Fire: ~ 520,000 acres burned as of posting.]

Wallow Fire Map – June 13, 2011.

Progression of the Wallow Fire as of June 13, 2011 [Based on data obtained on June 12, 2011.]  Click image to enlarge. All rights reserved by Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests

The Volcano-like Wallow Fire

Photo by Dean Fernandez with the Southwest Area Incident Management Team. Credit: US Forest Service, Apache Sitgreaves National Forest

Wallow Fire  as Seen by MODIS on the Terra Satellite

Wallow Fire as seen by MODIS on the Terra satellite on June 9 at 10:55 am MST. Active fire areas are outlined in red. The fire was more intense, producing less smoke than the previous day. Click image to enlarge.

Arizona Burn Scars Seen From Space

Imagery from the Landsat-7 satellite shows two glimpses of the same area: one taken on May 5, 2011 and the other on June 7, 2011. In the image from May 5, green areas indicate healthy vegetation and grasslands, light pink areas are naturally occurring rock or bare land. In the image from June 7, the red color indicates burned areas. In some cases, “hot” pink colors can also be seen along with smoke – these are active fire areas. Data from Landsat, a NASA-USGS partnership that was formerly managed by NOAA, is frequently used by NOAA for assessing land cover changes, especially in coastal and wetland ares. Copyright: NOAA [NOTE: FIRE-EARTH cannot confirm copyright validity.]  View High Resolution Version

 

Related Links

• Who needs volcanoes in Arizona

• Wallow Mega Fire – June 11 Update
• Wallow Fire Now Largest in Arizona History
• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• Wallow Fire Set to Become Largest in Arizona History
• Wallow Fire Now Arizona’s 2nd Largest, and Growing
• Arizona’s Wallow Fire Grew by 61 pct
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• 2011 Disaster Calendar – June 4