Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for July, 2011

Note to the blog readers

Posted by feww on July 24, 2011

Continued hacking and content censorship

In view of the continued hacking and censorship of this blog by the Internet Mafia, the Moderators have decided to maintain only a minimum presence at this site, until further notice.

FIRE-EARTH will continue to update the 2011 Disaster Calendar for the benefit of the readers.

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WordPress Continues to Hack Fire-Earth, Affiliated Blogs

Posted by feww on July 22, 2011

WordPress is HACKING this blog!

The Blog Moderators Condemn in the Strongest Possible Terms the Continued Removal of Content and Hacking of FIRE-EARTH and Affiliated Blogs by WordPress!

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Heat, Worsening Drought Kill Thousands of Cattle

Posted by feww on July 22, 2011

Mounting Human Toll Yet to Be Revealed

Deadly heat across the central and eastern United States  expands into the Ohio Valley and East Coast States

Highest heat indexes reported over the southern Plains, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic: NWS

At least 5,000 cattle have died from heat in Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota, reports said.


Composite Hazard Map Covering Temperature and Wind Threats, Precipitation, Soil/Wildfire Conditions. Click image to enlarge.


Maximum Daily Heat Index Map – Forecast. Click image to enlarge.

Drought


Current U.S. Drought Monitor. Click image to enlarge.

Highlights and Excerpts from the Weekly Report

  • Great Plains:  The drought conditions across the Southern Great Plains persisted, and worsened across most areas.
    • Texas: 94% of the range and pastureland was described as being in poor or very poor condition— a record weekly value.
    • Oklahoma: Across Oklahoma, 78% of the range and pastureland described as poor or very poor.
  • Great Lakes: Continued dryness that began about 60 days ago prompted the introduction of an area of abnormal dryness (D0) to the map across the lower Great Lakes region.
    • Across western New York and Pennsylvania, continued dry conditions lead to an expansion of the recently introduced D0 area.
  • Southeast and mid-Atlantic: A dry pattern persisted for the Carolinas, prompting a slight expansion in coverage of all the drought categories.
  • Rockies and Southwest: Rainfall (approximately 0.5 inch) associated with monsoonal moisture contributed to a small improvement across northwest New Mexico (McKinley County).  The central portions of New Mexico remained dry while some portions across the south received nearly 6 inches of rainfall.  Even with 4-6 inches falling in the Cloudcroft region, improvement could not be pursued as average rainfall is 5.2 inches.  Within the same climate division, most other stations reported less than 1 inch of total rainfall during July.
    • Colorado: Impacts from the drought continue to linger across the SW Colorado.

Temperature Forecast: Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the central portions of the contiguous 48 states and below-normal along the Pacific Coast. (Source: )

Indiana and Ohio

“Their crops are behind, and to make things even worse, they are dry now, too,” said Ken Scheeringa, Indiana’s associate state climatologist.

The dry parts in the Midwest is forecast to expand merging into a larger area from eastern Iowa through northern Illinois, stretching into Ohio, Scheeringa said.

“That dome of hot air over Missouri-Kansas — that is so strong, it’s just overwhelming the whole United States now,” he said. “It’s huge.”

Illinois

“I think all the heat that has developed out in the Plains has spilled over into the rest of the Midwest. That has certainly been a contributing factor,” said  the state climatologist for Illinois.

Corn Supplies

“Because corn supplies in the United States, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the grain, are projected to fall to a 16-year low by the end of August, the grain trade is counting on a large harvest this fall.” Said a report.

Soil Moisture Forecasts


Constructed Analog Forecasts based on Soil Moisture. Source: CPC

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Killer Heat Wave Continues in Central and Eastern U.S.

Posted by feww on July 21, 2011

Excessive heat and humidity expected to expand into the Ohio Valley and East Coast states this week: Forecasters

High heat index values of between 105 and 115 degrees through Friday (locally higher values possible) to expand into the Ohio Valley and East Coast, NWS reported.

Currently Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches and Heat Advisories are in effect over most of the central U.S., Ohio Valley and the Atlantic east coast from the Carolinas into New England.


US Weather Hazards Map.

 


Composite Hazard Map Covering Temperature and Wind Threats, Precipitation, Soil/Wildfire Conditions. Click image to enlarge.


Maximum Daily Heat Index Map – Forecast. Click image to enlarge.

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DORA Intensifies to a Cat 4A Hurricane

Posted by feww on July 21, 2011

Hurricane DORA has strengthened to  a Cat 4A storm on FEWW Hurricane Scale

DORA has intensified to a category 4A hurricane with sustained winds of about 215km/hr, currently moving WNW (295 degrees), away from the Pacific Coast of Mexico, at a moderate pace of about 25km/hr


Hurricane DORA IR satellite image [2-km res.] Source CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.


Hurricane DORA – IR satellite with a projected path superimposed on the image. Source CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

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Disaster Calendar – July 21, 2011

Posted by feww on July 21, 2011

2011 Disaster Calendar – July 21 entry

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,700 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

  • Obama’s war on Afghanistan. From April to mid July 2011, special operations raids in Afghanistan has resulted in the killings of 834 Afghans, said a report.
  • USA. Death toll from the ongoing extreme heat in the United States has climbed to more than 61.  At least 22 more people have died as a result of the ongoing extreme heat in the past few days, NOAA said. The death toll was 39 on  July 13, 2011, UPI said.

[KUDOS to USA Today for journalistic integrity!! The paper has gone out of its way to convince readers why fatalities from the prolonged heatwave are so low, as the official death toll suggests, against not just common sense and investigative instincts, but despite the big white elephant under the heat dome.]

[Death toll grows as heat persists in KC: “The new deaths would mean 13 people have died from the heat this summer in Jackson County, already surpassing the previous three years’ totals combined.”]

  • Ohio, USA. Summit County in Ohio has declared a state of emergency after flood damage caused by the storms earlier this week, a report said.
  • Ontario, Canada. Aski Nation Grand Chief Stan Beardy is asking the provincial and federal governments to declare a state of emergency amid growing wildfires in the province, a report said. “More than 115 forest fires are raging across northwestern Ontario, and Beardy says thousands of residents are in immediate danger from the growing flames and dense smoke.”


At least 115 forest fires are raging across northwestern Ontario. Hundreds of people have already been evacuated from the region and thousands more are “in immediate danger from the growing flames and dense smoke.” Some 2,000 firefighters from across Canada have been deployed. Credit: CTV

  • Chile. The Chilean President has declared large parts of La Araucania in Chilean Patagonia  a disaster areas following  four days of continuous and intense snowfall which have left some areas buried under 9 feet of snow, a report said.
    • “The government has resolved to help those affected, especially those living in Lonquimay,” Chile’s president said. “We declare the zone a disaster area in order to give us greater tools to help our fellow Chileans.”
    • “In four days we have had four months worth of snowfall,” said Regional Governor Miguel Mellado. “We’ve got a very difficult situation here.”
    • The disaster declaration covers the following area: Lonquimay, Curralehue, Melipeuco, Curacautín, Pucón, Cunco, Vilcún and Villarrica, the report said.
    • It’s estimated that at least 6,500 people living in the disaster zone are currently isolated.
  • Tennessee, USA. The White House has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Tennessee because of the widespread damage caused by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of June 18-24, 2011.

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Top 20 Energy Dinosaurs (by State)

Posted by feww on July 21, 2011

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida Top the “Toxic 20″ States: Report

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida residents, and people in 17 other states, are most at risk in the United States from toxic emissions released by fossil-fuel power plants, according to a report published by two environmental groups.

The study based on publicly-available data provided by the Environmental Protection Agency’s Toxics Release Inventory (TRI), is titled “Toxic Power: How Power Plants Contaminate Our Air and States” and was conducted by NRDC and PSR.

Key findings include:

  • About 50 percent of all the toxic air pollution reported from industrial sources in the United States comes from fossil-fuel (coal- and oil-fired) power plants.
  • Fossil-fuel power plants are the single largest industrial source of toxic air pollution in 28 states and the District of Columbia.

“Power plants are the biggest industrial toxic air polluters in our country, putting children and families at risk by dumping deadly and dangerous poisons into the air we breathe,” said Dan Lashof, Climate Center Director at NRDC. “Tougher standards are long overdue. Members of Congress who consider blocking toxic pollution safeguards should understand that this literally will cost American children and families their health and lives.”


Toxic Air Pollution. Image source: Portland State University. DWNLDD by FEWW. Click to enlarge.

The Top 20 Energy dinosaurs are

  1. Ohio
  2. Pennsylvania
  3. Florida
  4. Kentucky
  5. Maryland
  6. Indiana
  7. Michigan
  8. West Virginia
  9. Georgia
  10. North Carolina
  11. South Carolina
  12. Alabama
  13. Texas
  14. Virginia
  15. Tennessee
  16. Missouri
  17. Illinois
  18. Wisconsin
  19. New Hampshire
  20. Iowa

(Source: NDRC/PSR)

“The EPA estimates that the reductions of toxic pollution required by the pending ‘Mercury and Air Toxics’ standard would save as many as 17,000 lives every year by 2015 and prevent up to 120,000 cases of childhood asthma symptoms. The safeguards also would avoid more than 12,000 emergency room and hospital visits and prevent 850,000 lost work days every year,” the report said.

“Coal pollution is killing Americans,” said Lynn Ringenberg, MD, of Physicians for Social Responsibility. “It is America’s biggest source of toxic air pollution. Air toxics from coal-fired power plants cause cancer, birth defects, and respiratory illness. Just one of those air toxics, mercury, damages the developing brains of fetuses, infants, and small children.   It robs our children of healthy neurological development and native intelligence.

“Poisonous power threatens the health of our kids and families. As a pediatrician for over thirty years, I urge us absolutely to support the EPA’s efforts to reduce the health threat from coal.”

Power plants are the major source of toxic air pollution in the following 28 states (and DC) as reported to the TRI: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

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Famine Declared in 2 Somali Regions

Posted by feww on July 20, 2011

HUMANITARIAN DISASTER

10.7 Million People Caught Between Drought and the UN Corruption

UN declares a famine in southern Somalia

Famine has been declared in two Southern Somali areas, amid the worst drought conditions in at least Half a century.

Some 10.7 million people have been affected in East Africa, with about 750,000 Somalis seeking refuge to neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya.

UN NEEDS MORE MONEY (!)

“Famine in Somalia has killed tens of thousands of people in recent months and could grow even worse unless urgent action is taken, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned on Wednesday. FAO has appealed for $120 million for response to the drought in the Horn of Africa to provide agricultural emergency assistance.”

“Hundreds of people are dying every day and if we do not act now many more will perish,” said FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf.

The famine is expected to spread throughout southern Somalia in the next couple of months, FAO said.


Prolonged severe drought has led to declaration of famine in two southern region. Image source: SAACID-ORG

Drought, Hunger and Refugees

  • Somalia. The levels of malnutrition among young children fleeing Somalia’s drought are so high that they drop dead on their way to or within a day of arriving at relief camps in Ethiopia and Kenya, the UNHCR said. See Worst drought in living memory gripping Horn of Africa.
    • UNHCR has estimated that more than a quarter of Somalia’s 7.5 million population are now either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries.
    • “The massive influx of Somali refugees into neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia continues unabated. Relentless violence compounded by devastating drought has forced more than 135,000 Somalis to flee so far this year. In June alone, 54,000 people fled across the two borders, three times the number of people who fled in May.” UNHCR said.
    • “There are now more than 750,000 Somali refugees living in the region, mostly in neighbouring Kenya (405,000), Yemen (187,000) and Ethiopia (110,000). Another 1.46 million are displaced within Somalia.”


Drought in the Horn of Africa. Various UN agencies  have had ample time and budget to prevent (respond to) the humanitarian crisis in the drought stricken regions. So why did they fail, again?

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US Nuke Plants Threatened by Extreme Heat

Posted by feww on July 20, 2011

WARNING!

Sustained Heat Could Overwhelm Cooling at Nuclear Power Plants

Extreme Heat Could Severely Impact Nuclear Power Plants in Central, Midwest and Eastern United States Leading to Potential Nuclear Disasters

Cooling at the U.S. Nuclear Power Plants


Map of the Licensed Nuclear Reactors in the U.S. Subdivided by Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regions.

All but less than two dozen of a total of 104 nuclear reactors in the U.S. fall within the extreme heat zone as shown in the forecast map below.

Persistent heat could severely impact the ability of cooling systems in the reactors, causing overheating in one or more NPPs that could potentially lead to nuclear disasters at multiple locations.

Hazards Assessment Map


NWS has forecast that excessive heat will persist from today through July 29 in all the eastern half of the country except for the Northeast. Click image to enlarge.

Highest Heat Indexes

Tuesday’s highest recorded heat indexes in the U.S. were

    • Knoxville, Iowa: 131 (ºF)
    • Freeport, Illinois: 124
    • Madison, Minnesota: 124
    • Watertown, Wisconsin: 119
    • Tekamah, Nebraska: 117
    • Camberlain, South Dakota: 115

Heat Index Forecast:

  • Washington, DC: 116
  • Richmond, Virginia: 118


Maximum heat index forecast for July 22, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011 (Last UPDATED: July 20, 2011)

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (870)
  • France (855)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
  6. The Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: July 20, 2011)

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Killer Heat Persists in Central United States

Posted by feww on July 20, 2011

Excessive Heat Warnings, Heat Watches and Advisories are in effect in 19 states

All or parts of the following states are under Excessive Heat Warnings, Heat Watches and Advisories

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi

Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag Warnings are in effect in parts of Utah and Nevada.

Highest Heat Indexes

The highest recorded heat indexes in the U.S. were

    • Knoxville, Iowa: 131 (ºF)
    • Freeport, Illinois: 124
    • Madison, Minnesota: 124
    • Watertown, Wisconsin: 119
    • Tekamah, Nebraska: 117
    • Camberlain, South Dakota: 115

Heat Index Forecast:

  • Washington, DC: 116
  • Richmond, Virginia: 118


Maximum heat index forecast for July 22, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

Hazards Assessment Map


NWS has forecast that excessive heat will persist from today through July 29 in all the eastern half of the country except for the Northeast. Click image to enlarge.

Tuesday’s weather highlights for the central United States include:
  • Blazing heat continues in the Plains and gradually spreads across the Midwest
  • A band of states at risk of severe storms stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the Mid-Atlantic
  • Rain and thunderstorms over the Rockies, the eastern Great Lakes and the western Gulf Coast (Source: NOAA)

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Mt Etna Erupts

Posted by feww on July 20, 2011

Sicilian volcano erupts for the seventh time this year

Mt Etna’s latest eruption Tuesday night (UTC) forced the authorities to close the Catania’s Fontanarossa International Airport.

The volcano ejected fountains of lava up to 500 meters into the air, according to local reports.

There was no ash fallout as of posting, and the air port was reportedly reopened 6 hours later.

The authorities have warned nearby residents that more eruptions could occur without warning.

Mt Etna (summit elevation: 3,333m) is one of the world’s most active volcanoes.


Europe’s largest and most active volcano lights up the Sicilian night with a fountain and cascade of lava [Jan 11, 2011]. Image credit: ANSA. Image may be subject to copyright.

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Typhoon MA-ON Prepares for First Landing

Posted by feww on July 19, 2011

MA-ON to Make First Landfall at Midnight on July 19: Forecast

Typhoon MA-ON is currently a Cat. 1 Storm with sustained winds of about 145 km/hr, moving close to the island of Shikoku.

If the latest analysis made by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is accurate, the typhoon should make its first landing at about midnight (UTC) on July 19.


Typhoon MA-ON – VIS satellite image [1-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Current Details (JMA)
Scale: Large
Intensity: Strong
Center position:  32.4°N, 133.1°E
Direction and speed:  NNE 15km/h (8kt)
Central pressure: 960hPa
Maximum wind speed: 40m/s (75kt)
Maximum wind gusts: 55m/s (105kt)
Area of 50kt or stronger winds : 190km E (100NM), 110km W
Area of 30kt or stronger winds: 650km E, 410km W

MA-ON Projected Path (24-hr Probability Map)

MA-ON Projected Path (72-hr Probability Map)


Click images to enlarge.

MA-ON Animation

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20 Tornadoes Hit North Dakota Over the Weekend

Posted by feww on July 19, 2011

North Dakota Attacked by 20 Tornadoes, 10 on Saturday, 10 on Sunday

Total of 179 severe weather reports for the weekend were received at SPC, including 20 tornado sightings.


Severe weather reports for July 16 17, 2011 (Source: SPC)

Probability map for July Tornadoes

The probability of having one or more days with a tornado within 25 miles of a point sometime during a month. The base data for all tornadoes are the reports from 1980-1994 and for significant and violent tornadoes are the reports from 1921-1995. The values are probabilities in percent. Source: Severe Thunderstorms Climatology

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Extreme Heat Threatens Central Plains, Midwest, Eastern U.S.

Posted by feww on July 19, 2011

Deadly heat here to stay

Triple digit temperatures to scorch many areas from central Texas to the Canadian border

Central plains states to remain under heat alerts as the high pressure system responsible for the extreme heat inches toward the East Coast: NWS

Heat Warnings, Watches and Advisories are in effect for parts of 18 central Plains and Midwest states, including:
  • North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio.

Hazards Assessment Map


NWS has forecast that excessive heat will persist from today through July 29 in all the eastern half of the country except for the Northeast. Click image to enlarge.

U.S. Daily Highest Max Temperature Records set in July 2011

Total of 1,048 records Broken (541), or tied (507) so far. Source: National Climatic Data Center. Click map to enlarge.

US Hazards Map


Maximum Heat Index (ºF) – July 20, 2011 forecast by NWS.


The high pressure ridge will cause high temperatures and high heat indices forecast at higher than 100ºF plus for Mon/Tues, and 105ºF plus for Wed/Thurs/Fri, NWS said.

Prognosis by NWS
A large ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the Atmosphere remains in place across the central U.S., keeping hot temperatures in place. The hot temperatures combined with high relative humidity will create dangerous heat indices well above 100 degrees over a large portion of the nation. The upper-level ridge will begin to expand eastward this week. By midweek, the hot temperatures will begin to spread into the eastern states,  with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s arriving in the Mid-Atlantic states as soon as Wednesday. High temperatures in excess of 100 degrees will be possible by Thursday across much of the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the southeast U.S. these triple-digit temperatures are forecast to remain in place across the eastern U.S. through the weekend.

UPDATE @ 13:00UTC

The heat wave that has been affecting much of the central U.S. continues to produce dangerous levels of heat and  humidity from the Dakotas to Texas and eastward into the Ohio Valley. Heat index values as high as 131°F (55ºC) were reported yesterday and excessive heat watches, warnings and heat advisories are in effect today for a large portion of the central U.S., with temperatures in many locations exceeding 90 degrees, but feeling like 100-110 degrees or higher with the high humidity factored in. The large area of high pressure responsible for the excessive heat will expand eastward over the next several days, with high temperatures in the mid to upper-90s reaching the Mid-Atlantic states by tomorrow, and nearing 100 degrees by Thursday across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. Excessive heat is forecast to grip most of the eastern half of the country — with the exception of the Northeast and southern Florida — through at least the weekend.

Summary of today’s weather for the central United States include:
  • Dangerous heat continues in the Plains and gradually builds toward the East Coast
  • Severe storms possible from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, and the Northern Plains
  • A heavy rain threat extends from the Upper Texas Coast to the Central Gulf Coast (Source: NWS)

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Typhoon MA-ON: Japan’s Shikoku Island in Crosshairs

Posted by feww on July 18, 2011

MA-ON Headed Toward Shikoku Island, Japan

The typhoon could make landfall on Shikoku Island at about 12:00UTC on July 19, according to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).


Typhoon MA-ON – VIS/IR satellite image [4-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

MA-ON is currently a Category 2A storm with sustained winds of about 160km/hr, according to SATCON. However the estimate by JMA (see below) makes the typhoon a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of about 140km/hr.

Current Status

TYPHOON MA-ON – Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 July 2011 by JMA

Intensity: Strong
Center position of probability circle: 33.3°N, E133.8°E
Direction and speed:  NNE 15km/h (9kt)
Central pressure: 955hPa
Maximum wind speed: 40m/s (75kt)
Maximum wind gusts:  55m/s (105kt)
Radius of probability circle: 160km (85NM)
Storm warning area E370km (200NM), W300km (160NM)

MA-ON Projected Path (24-hr Probability Map)


Click image to enlarge.

MA-ON Projected Path (72-hr Probability Map)


Click image to enlarge.

MA-ON Animation

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Sick of Oil Spills

Posted by feww on July 18, 2011

BP Alaskan pipeline at Lisburne field ruptures spilling methanol and oil onto the tundra

Up to 4,200 gallons of a mixture of “methanol and oily water” was spilled after a rupture which occurred on Saturday, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation said.

Lisburne comes under the management of the Greater Prudhoe Bay Unit and was reportedly undergoing maintenance work.

Prudhoe Bay oil field (PBOF), located on Alaska’s North Slope, is the largest oil field in North America. It’s operated by BP and its partners ExxonMobiland ConocoPhillips Alaska.

Covering an area of about 86,000 ha,  PBOF was initially estimated as containing about 25 billion barrels of crude. The field is located about 640 km north of Fairbanks (1,050 km north of Anchorage), some 400 km north of the Arctic Circle (1,900 km from the North Pole).

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Mt Lokon Erupts Again

Posted by feww on July 18, 2011

Mt Lokon erupts, ejecting thick gray plumes 600 meters into the air

The latest eruption occurred at 1.24 pm local time [UTC + 8 hrs] sending the volcanic cloud to the northwest, Indonesia’s head of the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Agency (PVMBG) said.

An estimated 30,000 villagers live within a 3.5-km evacuation zone which was established on Sulawesi Island a week ago.


A Map of Listed Volcanoes of Indonesia.

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Killer Heatwave Returns

Posted by feww on July 18, 2011

Deadly Weather Set to Return This Week

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure shown below (500mb heights) will remain entrenched across central US, strengthening during the early part of the week, and moving into the Ohio Valley later in the week, NWS said

The  system will cause potentially deadly weather with heat and humidity prevailing.


Maximum Heat Index (ºF) – July 20, 2011 forecast by NWS.


Chance of Mean Heat Index > 100ºF. Click images to enlarge.


Chance of Mean Heat Index > 105ºF. Click images to enlarge.

 

Hazard Assessment Map: EXCESSIVE HEAT

Oppressive Heat and Humidity Set to Return

Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches and Advisories Issued for 3 Dozen States


The high pressure ridge will cause high temperatures and high heat indices forecast at higher than 100ºF plus for Mon/Tues, and 105ºF plus for Wed/Thurs/Fri, NWS said.

Selected Weather Stories


Synopsis: After a stretch of warm summer like temperatures, the longest stretch of oppressive heat and humidty of the season is upon us.  Temperatures will continue to climb through the 90s by the end of the weekend with dew points remaining elevated.  By the new work week, temperatures are expected to build towards or even past the 100 degree mark in portions of Missouri and are expected to surpass 100 degrees over much of Kansas.  However, humidity values will be lower.  Unfortunately, heat index readings will climb between 105 and 115 each day through next Friday.  Little in the way of nighttime relief is expected due to light winds and temperatures remaining near 80 degrees.

An excessive heat warning is in effect for much of Kansas and Missouri through 7pm Friday.  This is a dangerous situation!  Please check on relatives, neighbors, and friends who may not have resources to stay cool in these conditions.  Drink plenty of fluids and refrain from long periods of outdoor exposure; heat related illnesses can occur in minutes. (Source: NWS)


Sunny, hot and humid conditions with highs up to 105 through at least mid-week. Elevated humidity levels will help create high heat index values, resulting in an Excessive Heat Warning to be in effect across the region into mid-week. NWS

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Typhoon MA-ON Races Toward Japan

Posted by feww on July 17, 2011

MA-ON weakens slightly, still packing winds of about 205km/hr

Typhoon MA-ON has weakened slightly to Cat 3C Storm with winds of about 205km/hr, and gusts of up to 250km/hr

Heavy rain caused by the outer bands of the massive 2,000-km wide typhoon has already drenched most of the island of Shikoku.

MA-ON is completing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), and should resume re-intensification in the warm waters that extend all the way to coastal areas of Japan, and in the absence of strong vertical wind shear, JTWC reported.


Typhoon MA-ON – VIS/IR satellite image [4-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.


Typhoon MA-ON – IR satellite image [4-km res] with projected path superimposed. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

MA-ON Animation

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Mount Lokon Eruption Forces 6,000 to Evacuate

Posted by feww on July 17, 2011

UPDATE Posted @ 12:35UTC

Violent eruption at Mt Lokon sent a massive plume of smoke and ash into the air about 3,500-meters above the Tompaluan crater

According to local reports residents were returning to their homes along the mountain’s slopes, when the eruption occurred. The force of Sunday explosion however send them scurrying back into emergency shelters.

An estimated 30,000 villagers live within a 3.5-km evacuation zone which was established on Sulawesi Island a week ago.


Mount Lokon’s eruption seen from Tomohon, North Sulawesi, Indonesia, July 14, 2011. Image Credit: Jakarta Post/ANN. Image may be subject to copyright.

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Latest Lokon-Empung eruptions eject ash plume 800m into the air

Mt Lokon erupted at least 3 times on Saturday spewing thick plume of grey ash and volcanic fumes above the Tompaluan crater, located between the Lokon-Empung peaks.

Alert Level  raised to 4 by Indonesia’s CVGHM  has remained at the maximum level since July 11 eruption, when the volcano ejected ash about 5km above the crater summit.

Mount Lokon, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, is located about 20 km from North Sulawesi provincial capital of Manado.

“Historical eruptions have primarily produced small-to-moderate ash plumes that have occasionally damaged croplands and houses, but lava-dome growth and pyroclastic flows have also occurred.” GVP said.

Lokon-Empung Summary of Details 

Country/ Region: Indonesia (Sulawesi)
Summit Elevation: 1,580 m
Coordinates: 1.358°N, 124.792°E


The twin volcanoes Lokon and Empung rise above the towns of Kakaskasen and Kinilow as viewed from the flanks of Mahawu volcano. The more prominent Lokon volcano (left), is higher than Empung volcano (right) and lacks a summit crater. Most historical eruptions from Lokon-Empung, one of the most active volcanoes on Sulawesi Island, have originated from Tompaluan crater, which can be seen surrounded by fresh ash deposits in the saddle between the two peaks. Gunung Tetawiran rises beyond the saddle. Photo by Agus Solihin, 1998 (Volcanological Survey of Indonesia); caption by GVP.


A Map of Listed Volcanoes of Indonesia.

Latest Volcanic Eruptions/ Activities

Ongoing Activity:

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Deadly Heat Grips Central United States

Posted by feww on July 16, 2011

Killer Heat Already Claimed Dozens of Lives

Deadly heat has taken over weather conditions in the central United States; forecast to last through next week

Heat warnings, watches and advisories have been issued from Texas to the Canadian border and from the High Plains to the western Great Lakes.

Deadly heat already claimed dozens of lives and has now taken over weather conditions in the central United States; forecast to last well into next week. NWS has issued heat warnings, watches and advisories have been issued from Texas to the Canadian border and from the High Plains to the western Great Lakes. Click image to enlarge. 


U.S. Weather Hazards Map. Click image to enter interactive portal.

Weather highlights for the central United States include:

  • Dangerous heat beginning to build from the southern and central Plains to the North
  • Severe weather threat from the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley [Source: NWS]

Excerpts from NWS Weather Forecast

  • Heat and humidity that has stagnated across the southern Plains will spread through the central Plains into the Dakotas, today, bringing a possibility of triple-digit high temperatures through the weekend and into the first half of next week.
    • Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for parts of Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
    • Heat Advisories are in effect for parts of Oklahoma and Texas.
    • Excessive Heat Watches will go into effect Saturday for portions of the central and northern Plains and the Midwest, including the Dakotas, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
  • . . . the heat will be relentless over a 16-state area in the heart of the country, lasting into the latter half of next week. The central Plains will see excessive heat continue from July 17-21 and triple-digit highs will bake the southern half of the Atlantic Coast July 19-27.

Official Death Toll

  • As of July 14, 2011, the official toll from the killer heat waves in the U.S. was reported at 39 fatalities.

U.S. Flood Map


U.S. Flood Map: 88 sites were at Major, Moderate or Minor Flooding stage as of 07/16/2011 at 09:01:15 am EDT / 07/16/2011 13:01:15UTC
76 sites weer at Near Flood stage as of 07/16/2011 at 09:01:15 am EDT.

In Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S. posted on July 11, 2011 FIRE-EARTH warned:

Deadly heatwaves of unprecedented intensity could strike the U.S. in 2011 and beyond, claiming tens of thousands of lives and affecting millions more: FIRE-EARTH Climate Model

Please cite FIRE-EARTH as the source for above forecast, if you’re copying/re-writing this information.

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Typhoon MA-ON Making Her MI-ND Up

Posted by feww on July 16, 2011

MA-ON Still a Cat 4A Storm

Some models suggest MA-ON may avoid making Japan landfall.

Compared with the damage caused as a result of a direct hit, the typhoon could inflict more harm by moving close along Japan’s coastline.


Typhoon MA-ON with model forecasts tracks superimposed – VIS/IR satellite image [8-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon MA-ON Summary of Details (as of posting)

  • Location: ~ 1,470km South of Osaka, Japan
  • Position: ~ 21.8N 137.4E
  • Movement and speed: moving west (275 degrees,) at a forward speed of about 15 km/hr
  • Maximum sustained winds: 220 km/hr [SATCON]
  • Wind gusts: up to 270 km/hr
  • Estimated time of [first] landfall: July 19 @ 20:00UTC [See daily updates]
  • Remarks: MA-ON will likely become a super typhoon as it heads NW moving over warmer waters. The typhoon could make a second landfall on the Honshu Island before it exits land, returning to the Pacific Ocean. (FIRE-EARTH forecast based on data from various sources.)  [See daily updates]


Typhoon MA-ON – MTSAT2 [July 16 @ 10:00UTC] – Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.

MA-ON Animation

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MA-ON Stregthens to Cat 4A Typhoon

Posted by feww on July 15, 2011

Typhoon MA-ON Intensifies to a Cat 4A Storm with winds of about 220km/hr

Most models forecast MA-ON making landfall on the island of Shikoku [see daily updates.]


Typhoon MA-ON with the latest projected track based on several models – IR satellite image [8-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon MA-ON Summary of Details (as of posting)

  • Location: ~ 445km SE of IWO TO, Japan
  • Position: ~ 20.7N 140.7E
  • Movement and speed: moving west (275 degrees,) at a forward speed of about 15 km/hr
  • Maximum sustained winds: 220 km/hr
  • Wind gusts: up to 270 km/hr
  • Estimated time of [first] landfall: July 19 @ 20:00UTC [See daily updates]
  • Remarks: MA-ON will likely become a super typhoon as it heads NW moving over warmer waters. The typhoon could make a second landfall on the Honshu Island before it exits land, returning to the Pacific Ocean. (FIRE-EARTH forecast based on data from various sources.)


Typhoon MA-ON – MTSAT2 –Full View – IR Satellite Image.  Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to update.


Typhoon MA-ON
with the latest projected track based on several models – WV satellite image [8-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.


Typhoon MA-ON – MTSAT2 – Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.

MA-ON Animation

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Significant Quake Rattles Tokyo Area

Posted by feww on July 15, 2011

Magnitude 5.5 Quake in Ibaraki Pref Rattles a Vast Area

The 5.5Mw quake, epicentered at 36.3N, 140.1E, struck about 59 km NNE of Tokyo at a depth of 60 km at 21:01 JST (UTC + 9 hrs) on 15 July 15, 2011, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said.

There was NO tsunami associated with this quake.

Distances [USGS]

  • 47 km (29 miles) WSW (239°) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
  • 59 km (37 miles) NNE (25°) from TOKYO, Japan
  • 91 km (56 miles) ESE (108°) from Maebashi, Honshu, Japan


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP

Japan Earthquake Forecasts

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US Weather: SW, SE Continue to Boil

Posted by feww on July 15, 2011

Dangerously hot and humid conditions, flooding and severe weather

Unrelenting heat to continue unabated in the SW and south-central Plains and parts of the Southeast: NWS


Excessive heat is forecast to return “with a vengeance through much of next week.” The NWS hazards assessment map indicates excessive heat would return to two regions, covering parts of at least 24 states. Click image to enlarge.

Triple digit temperatures with heat index of about 120 degrees (49ºC) forecast across the South Thursday, with “no end in sight for the blazing temperatures.”

“Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect over a dozen states and high temperatures are expected to spread again across more of the South.” Forecasters said.

Excessive heat is forecast to return “with a vengeance through much of next week” to two regions covering at least 24 states. See above map.

Thursday’s weather hazards include:

  • Dangerously hot and humid conditions across the Southeast
  • Flooding continues and worsens in some parts of the northern and central Plains
  • Severe weather will be a threat in the north-central Plains and the Upper Midwest

High temperatures for today in parts of the country hoping for relief include:

  • Texas: Dallas 101, San Antonio 99, Waco 104, Wichita Falls 106
  • Oklahoma: Oklahoma City 101, Tulsa 100, Woodward 101
  • Kansas: Dodge City 100, Garden City 100, Goodland 94, Hill City 99, Topeka 94, Wichita 99
  • Missouri: Kansas City 91
  • Arkansas: Fort Smith 99, Pine Bluff 94
  • Louisiana: Shreveport 100
  • Mississippi: Tupelo 96

Daily high temperatures through Monday would be in triple digits (NWS forecast), including:

  • 105 degrees or more in Wichita Falls, 102 or higher in Waco
  • 100-102 in Wichita, 100-105 in Dodge City, 102 and higher in Hill City


U.S. Weather Hazards Map. Click image to enter interactive portal.

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