World’s Water Dreams

World Water Headlines – July 13, 2011

China forsaking farmers to feed ferocious energy demands

China says it is raising power production capacity to 1,440 gigawatts (GW) in four years, a rise of 490 GW.

The authorities are planning output at least 140GW of the added capacity from hydro power—equivalent of energy produced by seven Three Gorges dams, or the entire electricity production of France.

However, large-scale hydropower projects, as was the case with the construction of Three Gorges Dam, which impounded the Yangtzee River, will submerge vast areas of farming land under water forcing millions of people to relocate.

About 1.5 million people were relocated and at least 1,000 towns and villages were flooded to fill the reservoir area.

Three Gorges Dam in Yichang, Hubei Province central China, July 19, 2010.  The Dam Could Collapse

The water influx into the Three Gorges Reservoir reached 58,000 steres [cubic meters, m³] per second on Monday morning, setting a new record in this year’s flood season. Engineers will raise the rate of water outflux to 40,000 steres per second from 10 a.m. on Monday to face the biggest flood peak since the dam was established. (Xinhua/Zheng Jiayu). Image may be subject to copyright. More photos …

Water Shortages Caused by Hydropower Dams

Prolonged drought in the Mekong Basin threatened the livelihood of at least 60 million people last year. The water flows were the lowest for 20 years, said the Mekong River Commission (MRC). Adding that “water supply, navigation and irrigation are at threat.”

Many people in Southeast Asia blamed the unusually low water levels on Chinese dams.

NOTES:
1. Three Gorges dam has an installed capacity of 18.2GW
2. China’s hydropower capacity at the end 2010 was 213.4GW
3. Coal-powered plants will produce about 77 percent of the remaining 350GW of China’s planned capacity boost.

Related Links

• China warns of ‘urgent problems’ facing Three Gorges dam

Dangerous heat spreads to Mid-Atlantic

Heat Warnings/Advisories in Effect for Half the U.S. Population

Much of the Eastern, Southern and Mid-Section U.S. Experiencing Dangerous Heat

As oppressive heat gripped much of the eastern U.S. spreading into the Capital, triple-digit temperatures and heat indices hovered around the 115-degree mark, and air quality took a nosedive.

• In Wichita, Kansas the temperature exceeded 100 degrees for the 20th consecutive day.
• In Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, temperatures hovered around 100 degrees for the 14th consecutive day.

Heat Warnings and Advisories issued Monday for a large portion of the U.S. mid-section have been extended to the Mid-Atlantic states, as moist air from the Gulf of Mexico combined with dangerously high   “temperatures to perpetuate the dangerous heat illness threat across the South and East.” NWS said.

“Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect today from parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Gulf States to the northern Eastern Seaboard and Mid-Atlantic. Triple digit high temperatures and high humidity are expected for the Nation’s Capital.”

U.S. Max Temp Forecast for July 13-14.

Max Heat Index and Probability Forecast – July 13, 2011

Image Source: NOAA/HPC. Click image to enlarge.

U.S. Weather Summary

• Severe weather forecast for wide areas from the central High Plains across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
• Heavy rain over flooded river valleys across the northern and central Plains could exacerbate ongoing flooding.
• Flash Flooding possible over parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah and Colorado.

Weather Forecast Map July 12, 2011. Click to enlarge.

Air Quality

Air quality alerts are in effect in parts of Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia, as of posting

Severe Weather

Severe weather extending from southeastern Wyoming to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, including parts of 14 states is possible today, NWS said.

“Parts of Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina are at Slight Risk for severe weather. Another Slight Risk area covers most of Montana and the fringe area of north-central Idaho.”

Wednesday and Thursday Forecast: Parts of Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska are also at Slight Risk for severe weather, NWS said.

SPC received 526 reports of severe weather on Monday: 474 reports of high winds and 52 reports of large hail. [Report was later filtered to 351/318/33.]

Related Links

• Dangerous heat, exceptional drought, severe storms, major flooding
• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

State of emergency declared in Quartzsite, Arizona

POLICE STATE in Quartzsite!

Tiny Quartzsite Declares a State of Emergency

A state of emergency declared in the small western Arizona town of Quartzsite after a video of a woman being arrested during a public city council meeting was posted on the Internet

Jennifer “Jade” Jones, a blogger and critic of local government, was speaking at the public comment session of a June 28 city council meeting when she was arrested.

Jennifer “Jade” Jones is being arrested after speaking at the public comment session of a June 28 city council meeting  in the small western Arizona town of Quartzsite. Frame freeze from a video clip.

The mayor of Quartzsite, Ed Foster, is heard telling officers to leave Jones alone. “Officer, that woman has the floor you are violating my rules of order,” says Foster.

Since the video went public, Mayor Foster has been ousted and Quartzsite Police Chief Jeff Gilbert has taken control of the town, a report said.

“Mayor Ed Foster told The Associated Press on Monday that the town council held a last-minute meeting that was closed to the public Sunday night, declaring a state of emergency in the 3,600-person town just east of the California city of Blythe.”

“I’m going to tell you frankly, this council is out of control,” Foster said. “The chief has been out of control for some time and I’ve asked the state government to help a number of times,” to no avail.

Related Links

• State of emergency declared in Quartzsite, Ariz.
• Video also posted HERE

Dangerous heat, exceptional drought, severe storms, major flooding

U.S. Weather Forecast, July 14 – 25

A 15-state area of the southern Plains have been experiencing “dangerously oppressive heat,” which has continued from the weekend and could last through the week.

U.S. Weather Hazards Assessment Map. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge.

National Weather Summary

• Dangerously oppressive heat today through Wednesday throughout the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast states and the southern Atlantic Coast
• Exceptional to sever drought across the South
• Flooding continues along the Missouri River

Killer Heat!

Dangerously oppressive heat is forecast to linger on through the forecast period in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

Many of the locations could continue experiencing record-setting temperatures, forecasters said.

[NOTE: An earlier list for the heat advisory included 23 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.]

The U.S. Weather Hazards Map.  Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge.

Weekend highs included:

• Kansas
• 113 degrees (45ºC) in Ashland
• 108 in Pratt
• 112 degrees in Anthony
• 111 degrees in Wichita, Kansas*
• Oklahoma
• 111 degrees in Altus Dam, Freedom and Guthrie
• 110 degrees in Billings
• 109 in Enid and Seminole
• Texas
• 111 degrees at Lake Kemp
• 104 degrees in Dimmitt and Tulia

[*NOTE: In Wichita, Kansas, temperatures of 111 degrees have occurred only 10 times since July 1888, NWS said.]

Severe Weather

An area at Moderate Risk for severe weather development today extends from the southern half of Lake Michigan to the Ohio Valley. The area includes southeastern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, southwestern Lower Michigan, the northern two-thirds of Indiana, the western half of Ohio and extreme north-central Kentucky, NWS said.

On Sunday SPC received 320 reports of severe weather: 280 reports of high winds, 28 reports of large hail and 12 tornado reports. There were seven tornado reports from North Dakota, three from Colorado and two from Minnesota.

Flooding

As of this morning, 17 gauges were at Major Flooding levels, 29 were at Moderate Flood and 45 were at Minor Flood. Another 95 sites were Near Flood.

Flood Map for the U.S.

Related Links

• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.

• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

• Another Wild Weather Day Across the U.S.
• 2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGADISASTERS

Gonorrhea: First superbug strain found

“Superbug” strain of gonorrhea has been discovered by Sweden – Japan researchers

The strain is said to be resistant to all the common antibiotics

The superbug strain was discovered by a Swedish scientist Magnus Unemo, who received the samples from his colleagues in Kyoto, Japan.

The strain is said to be extremely resistant to all cephalosporin-class antibiotics—the only antibiotics still effective in treating gonorrhea.

He described the discovery as “alarming” and “predictable.”

“Since antibiotics became the standard treatment for gonorrhea in the 1940s, this bacterium has shown a remarkable capacity to develop resistance mechanisms to all drugs introduced to control it,” he said.

The fact that the new strain had been found in Japan also follows an alarming pattern, he told reporters.

“Japan has historically been the place for the first emergence and subsequent global spread of different types of resistance in gonorrhea,” he said.

In the past few years trends of gonorrhea drug resistance have emerged in Australia, China, Hong Kong and other Asian countries.

Gonorrhea

Gonorrhea is a common sexually-transmitted disease (STD), caused by the bacteria Neisseria gonorrhoeae.

An electron micrograph of gonorrhea bacteria. Image courtesy http://women.webmd.com/slideshow-pelvic-pain-causes

The infection is readily transmitted when an infected person has ANY type of sex. The infection is spread by contact with the mouth, vagina, penis, or anus.

This was a newborn with gonococcal ophthalmia neonatorum caused by a maternally transmitted gonococcal infection.Unless preventative measures are taken, it is estimated that gonococcal ophthalmia neonatorum will develop in 28% of infants born to women with gonorrhea. It affects the corneal epithelium causing microbial keratitis, ulceration and perforation. Source: CDC/J. Pledger. Click image to enlarge

The lesion on this patient’s left hand was due to the systemic dissemination of the Neisseria gonorrhoeae bacteria. Though sexually transmitted, and involving the urogenital tract initially, a Neisseria gonorrhoeae bacterial infection can become disseminated systemically, manifesting itself as a cutaneous erythematous lesion anywhere on the body. Source: CDC/Dr. S. E. Thompson, VDCD./J. Pledger

Gonorrhea—Rates, United States, 1941–2009

Reported Gonorrhea rates in the United States, 1941–2009. Source: CDC 

Gonorrhea—Rates by State, United States and Outlying Areas, 2009

The total rate of gonorrhea for the United States and outlying areas (Guam, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands) was 97.8 per 100,000 population. Source: CDC

What is gonorrhea?

[Sourced from CDC] Gonorrhea is a sexually transmitted disease (STD). Gonorrhea is caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae, a bacterium that can grow and multiply easily in the warm, moist areas of the reproductive tract, including the cervix (opening to the womb), uterus (womb), and fallopian tubes (egg canals) in women, and in the urethra (urine canal) in women and men. The bacterium can also grow in the mouth, throat, eyes, and anus.

Why Treat the Gonorrhea?

Gonorrhea can spread to the blood or joints. This condition can be life threatening. In addition, people with gonorrhea can more easily contract HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. HIV-infected people with gonorrhea can transmit HIV more easily to someone else than if they did not have gonorrhea.

Gonorrhea can affect the anus, eyes, mouth, genitals, or throat.

In men, gonorrhea can cause epididymitis, a painful condition of the ducts attached to the testicles that may lead to infertility if left untreated.

In women, Pelvic Inflammatory Disease (PID) can lead to serious consequences including infertility.

PID occurs when certain bacteria, such as chlamydia or gonorrhea, move upward from a woman’s vagina or cervix (opening to the uterus) into her reproductive organs.

About 750,000 women each year in the United States develop PID.

What Next?

• A major challenge to monitoring emerging antimicrobial resistance of N. gonorrhoeae is the substantial decline in capability of laboratories to perform essential gonorrhea culture techniques required for antibiotic susceptibility testing. This decline results from an increased use of newer non-culture-based laboratory technology, such as a diagnostic test called the Nucleic Acid Amplification Test (NAAT). Currently, there is no reliable technology that allows for antibiotic susceptibility testing from non-culture specimens. Increased laboratory culture capacity is needed. ~CDC

Global Scope

About 340 million new cases of STD including syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia and trichomoniasis are reported each year among the 15 to 49 age group, World Health Organization estimates.

Related Links

• Antibiotic-Resistant Gonorrhea (ARG)
• NZ women are world’s most promiscuous

Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.

Heat: The number one weather-related killer in the United States

Deadly heatwaves of unprecedented intensity could strike the U.S. in 2011 and beyond, claiming tens of thousands of lives and affecting millions more: FIRE-EARTH Climate Model

Please cite FIRE-EARTH as the source for above forecast, if you’re copying/re-writing this information.

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980 – May 2011

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980 – May 2011. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge

Heat-Related Fatalities

• Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States
• More than 1,250 people died in the heatwave of 1980.
• In the heatwave of 1995 at least 700 deaths in the Chicago area were attributed to heat.
• A record heatwave in Europe claimed about 50,000 lives in August 2003.
• The Moscow heatwave claimed an estimated 15,000 lives in August 2010.

Map of Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980 – 2010. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge

The U.S. has sustained 99 weather-related disasters over the past 31 years in which overall damages/costs topped $1 billion, with the total normalized losses exceeding $725 billion. ~ NOAA

Table of Disasters by Type and Frequency

Source: NCDC/NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Map of Disasters by State

U.S. South has experienced the highest numbers of billion-dollar disasters since 1980. Image Source: NCDC/NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Billion-Dollar Disasters 2011 (Preliminary List)

2011 is already highest damage cost-to-date in the U.S. for any year since 1980 when NOAA started  tracking billion-dollar disasters.

8 billion-dollar disasters have occurred in the U.S.  so far this year:

• Groundhog Day Blizzard Jan 29-Feb 3 . Total cost: at least $3.9 billion; 36 deaths.
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes April 4-5. Total cost: $2.0 billion; 9 deaths.
• Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes April 8-11. Total cost: $2.2 billion; numerous injuries, no known deaths,  (59 tornadoes).
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes April 14-16. Total cost:  $2.0 billion; 38 deaths (160 tornadoes).
• Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes April 25-30. Total cost: $10.0 billion; 320 deaths (305 tornadoes).
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes May 22-27: Total cost: $7.0 billion; 172 deaths [180 tornadoes reported; at least 18 more people have since died as a result of Joplin tornado, raising the official toll to 159.]
• Texas Drought & Wildfires Spring-Summer 2011. Fighting/suppression costs are around $1 million /day; total losses to agriculture and cattle are estimated to range between $1.5-3.0 billion. This cost estimate reflects losses as of 16 June, and will likely rise as the event continues.
• Mississippi River flooding Spring-Summer 2011 Estimated economic loss ranges from $2.0-4.0; the flooding continues. Preliminary cost as of 6/16:
• $500 million to agriculture in Arkansas
• $320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee
• $800 million to agriculture in Mississippi
• $317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri’s Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway
• $80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana [Source of data: NOAA/NCDC]

Max Heat Index and Probability Forecast – July 13, 2011

Image Source: NOAA/HPC. Click image to enlarge.

Related Sites

• Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters, 1980 – 2010 – The Narrative [PDF File]
• Heat: A Major Killer

Related Links

• Moscow Heat, Smog Claim Many Lives
• Another Wild Weather Day Across the U.S.
• 2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGADISASTERS

Updated July 12, 2011

Another Wild Weather Day Across the U.S.

Excessive Heat, Flood and Severe Thunder Storms Warnings in Many Parts of the Country

Deadly heatwaves of unprecedented intensity could strike the U.S. in 2011, claiming thousands of lives and affecting millions more: FIRE-EARTH Climate Model

Please cite FIRE-EARTH as the source of forecast, if you’re copying this information.

 

Fatalities from weather events. Source: NOAA

Fatalities from weather events. [More sanitized version?] Source: NOAA-OCWWS

Between 1936 and 1975, about 20,000 people died in the U.S. from the effects of heat and solar radiation. [Source: NWS-WFO]

Follow the temperature line until it intersects the relative humidity line. Then read the Heat Index on the curved line. For example, an air temperature of 100°F and Relative Humidity of 40%. Follow the 100°F temperature line until it intersects the 40% relative humidity line. Then curved line that also intersects is the Heat Index of 110°F, or Very Hot. That is the temperature the body thinks it is and attempts to compensate for that level of heat. Remember, these values are in the SHADE. Add up to 15°F to these values if you are in direct sunlight. [Source: NWS-WFO]

The risk to the body from continued exposure to excessive heat

Click image to enlarge. [Source: NWS-WFO]

National Hazards Map – July 11

Click map to enter NWS interactive portal.

Flooding

Many rivers in Midwest and northern Plains bulging with excess water, as flooding seems set to continue through the summer: Forecasters

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image

Related Links

• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING
• Moscow Heat, Smog Claim Many Lives

Slave Lake Hit by Back-to-Back Disasters

First the wildfires devastated Slave Lake; now comes the deluge

Heavy rainfall in northern Alberta causes flooding near Slave Lake.

The mayor, of course, blames the nature:

“You feel like you’re in a war zone and you just have to fight to the end, and Slave Lake is worth fighting for,” said SL mayor, Karina Pillay-Kinnee.

Torrential rains hit the area dumping about 100mm of rain on Friday, when residents woke up to find streets inundated.

Some people who were living in the basements of homes devastated in the May wildfires found their makeshift habitat submerged under floodwater.

Flood warnings have been issued, as more rain is forecast for the region in the coming days, reports said.

A Slave Lake resident is canoeing in his front yard. Frame garb from a CTV news clip.

Related Links

• Alberta Fires: Oil Production Down 200,000 bpd
• Weather extremes the “new norm”
• Slave Lake Fires (Update 2): 40% of the City Destroyed
• Slave Lake Burning – Update 1
• Slave Lake on Fire

Japan Mega Quake Warning

Mega Quake Measuring about 9.6Mw Could Strike Near Fukushima, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show that a large earthquake measuring up to 9.6Mw could strike within a 130 km coast of Fukushima, Japan.

Forecast Details:

• Magnitude: Up to 9.6Mw 
• Estimated Depth: 15km (±5km)
• Location: Epicentered near 37.63ºN, 142.45ºE
• Position: 130km east of Minamisōma, Fukushima, Japan
• Expected Time of occurrence: July – October 2011
• Probability of Occurrence: 72%

Global Tectonics Alert – April 9

JPTRMT1 – FIRE-EARTH estimates that about 80 exajoules (EJ) of tectonic stress energy could be accumulated in Japan Region between now and early 2016.

FIRE-EARTH Models show that most of the energy would be released as large earthquakes including a massive shock, a Megathrust earthquake, the largest on record, measuring 10.0+Mw, which could release about 64EJ of energy.

[NOTE: The 1960 Valdivia earthquake—The Great Chilean Earthquake—is the largest ever recorded earthquake measuring 9.5Mw. The quake struck on May 22, 1960 at 38.29ºS, 73.0ºW. Seismic moment release: ~ 11.3 EJ]

Previous Forecasts

• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted on March 16, 2011
• FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
• MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU
• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted on June 13, 2010
• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted on July 5, 2010
• Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted  on November 10, 2010

Related Links

• Magnitude 7.1 Quake Strikes Off Sanriku, Japan
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Magnitude 7.1 Quake Strikes Off Sanriku, Japan

Powerful Earthquake Strikes Off the East Coast of Honshu Japan

The quake, epicentered at 38.0ºN 143.5ºE , struck at a depth of 10 km at 09:57 JST (00:57 UTC) on Sunday Jul 10, 2011  off the coast Sanriku (Tohoku Region),  Honshu, Japan, Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported.

The earthquake occurred about 250km east of Fukushima and 405km NE of Tokyo.

TSUNAMI STATUS:  JMA has just issued the following Tsunami Bulletin:

Tsunami Warning/Advisory- Issued at 10:00 JST 10 Jul 2011

Tsunami Advisories have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan: PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU

Tsunami Advisories have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:

• IWATE PREF.
• MIYAGI PREF.
• FUKUSHIMA PREF.

Tsunami Forecast
Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters. Attention advised.

10-degree Map Centered at 40°N,145°E

EQ Location Map. Source: USGS

Earthquake Shakemap

Source: USGS

Related Links

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

U.S. Deluge: Significant River Flooding Continues

96 locations to be flooded over the weekend: Forecasters

Threat of severe thunderstorms in the northern Plains and dangerous heat in the southern Plains and Desert Southwest: NWS

Significant River Flood Outlook for July 8-13, 2011. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge. Click here to enter interactive portal.

 Related Links:

•  Severe storms, stifling heat dominate weekend weather for central United States
•  Widespread flood threat to continue through summer

Click image to enter NWS interactive portal.

The temperature could rise to 107ºF (41.7ºC) in Woodward, OK, and 106ºF (41.1ºC) in Dodge City, KS, acording to NWS forecast.

At least a dozen other location could see the mercury rising above the 100ºF mark.

U.S. Flood Map – July 9, 2011

U.S. Drought Map

Related Links:

• U.S. Climate June: Extremes of Temp and Precipitation

Katla’s ice cap is melting

Melting of Katla’s ice cap is causing flooding near the volcano: Iceland Civil Protection Agency

Flooding may have been caused either by a small eruption, or geothermal heat emitted from the volcano, the authorities said.

Katla is one of Iceland’s largest and most active volcanoes. Located east of the Eyjafjallajökull glacier, near the southern end of Iceland’s eastern volcanic zone, Katla is buried beneath the Myrdalsjökull icecap. Its peak reaches 1,512 meters.

Map of Iceland’s Recent Earthquakes

Source: Icelandic Met Office. Image may be subject to copyright.

Katla’s last significant eruption occurred in 1928. The volcano is credited with sixteen major eruptions between 930 and 1918 occurring at intervals of 40–80 years.

Katla volcano, located near the southern end of Iceland’s eastern volcanic zone, is mostly hidden beneath the Myrdalsjökull icecap, which extends across the top of the photo. Valley glaciers descend from the summit icecap toward the coastal plain in this aerial view from the SSW. Explosive eruptions from Katla, among the largest tephra-producers in Iceland during historical time, have frequently been accompanied by damaging jökulhlaups, or glacier-outburst floods. Photo by Oddur Sigurdsson, 1985 (Icelandic National Energy Authority). Caption by GVP.

Iceland Volcanoes – Activity Forecast

FIRE-EARTH will await further development before updating the following forecast, if needed.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity

Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]

Iceland’s Volcanic Eruptions since 1902

• 2011 Grímsvötn
• 2010 Eyjafjallajökull
• 2004 Grímsvötn
• 2000 Hekla
• 1998 Grímsvötn
• 1996 Gjálp
• 1991 Hekla
• 1984 Krafla
• 1983 Grímsvötn
• 1981 Krafla 2 eruptions
• 1981 Hekla
• 1980 Hekla
• 1980 Krafla 3 eruptions
• 1977 Krafla 2 eruptions
• 1975 Krafla
• 1973 subaquatic eruption 5 km south of Landeyjar coast
• 1973 Heimaey
• 1970 Hekla
• 1963-1967 Surtsey
• 1961 Askja
• 1947 Hekla
• 1938 Grímsvötn
• 1934 Grímsvötn
• 1933 Grímsvötn
• 1929 Askja
• 1927 Askja
• 1926 northeast of Eldey
• 1924 Askja
• 1923 Askja
• 1922 Askja 2 eruptions
• 1922 Grímsvötn
• 1921 Askja
• 1918 Katla
• 1913 Austan Heklu
• 1910 Þórðarhyrna
• 1903 Þórðarhyrna
• 1902 Grímsvötn

List of Iceland’s volcanic eruptions since 1902 sourced from Icelandic Met Office Website.

Recent Volcanic Activity [Source: GVP]

29 June-5 July 2011

New Activity/Unrest: 

• Kirishima, Kyushu
• Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi
• Nabro, Eritrea
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile
• Soputan, Sulawesi

Ongoing Activity:

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Dukono, Halmahera
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Santa María, Guatemala
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) |
• Taal, Luzon

Related Links

• The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt Posted on April 22, 2010
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption Links Page
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity Posted on June 17, 2011

U.S. Climate June: Extremes of Temp and Precipitation

Oppressive heat wave and worsening  drought conditions smashed temperature records in the South and Southwest: NOAA

The average U.S. temperature in June climbed by1.4ºF above the long-term (1901-2000) average to 70.7ºF, while the average precipitation fell to 2.48 inches, 0.41 inch below the long-term average—the average was subject to wide variations across the country.

June 2011 temperature “divisional rank” maps. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Summary of U.S. Climate Highlights – June

• All-time high temperature records:
• Amarillo, Texas, 111ºF,  June 26 (previous record: 109ºF set two days earlier!)
• Tallahassee, Fla., 105ºF, June 15.
• 42 U.S. locations tied or broke all-time maximum high temperatures.
• Texas recorded average temperature of 85.2ºF, 5.6ºF above normal (1953 was previously the warmest June in 117-year recorded history).  Texas experienced the fourth consecutive June with temperatures at least 2ºF above the long-term average.
• Both Louisiana and Oklahoma (tied) had their second warmest June.

Drought

• Parts of the Southwest through much of the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast experienced ongoing intense drought.
• New Mexico had its driest June on record.
• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 63 percent of the Southeast was in moderate-to-exceptional drought at the end of June, compared to 51 percent at the end of May.
• The worst category of drought, exceptional drought, rose from 28 percent to 47 percent area in the South.

Wildfires

• Above average wildfire activity continued across the Southern tier of the United States broke all time records in June.
• Arizona and Mexico experienced their largest wildfire in recorded history.

For an accurate record of wildfires Jan – Jun 2011 see: US Wildfires Consume 7.7 Million Acres in 6 Months

US Precipitation Map – June 2011

June 2011 precipitation “divisional rank” map. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast for 2011 – 2012: FEWW Models show  the extremes of temperature and precipitation/drought intensifying over the next 12 to 18 months.

Related Links

• Los Alamos Fire Breaks NM Record
• The Wildfire that Broke Texas’s Back

Fat is Fashionable

U.S. Obesity Epidemic Growing Like Cancer

The following image was prepared by FIRE-EARTH in conjunction with an earlier post: U.S. Obesity Epidemic Exploding Like Wildfire

Obesity Trends among U.S. Adults

2011 Map for Percent of Obese (BMI > 30) in U.S. Adults. Source: FIRE-EARTH (Based on data provided by TFAH; original template by BRFSS, CDC).

U.S. ADULT OBESITY RANKINGS (by State)

Note: 1 = Highest rate of adult obesity, 51 = lowest rate of adult obesity. Rankings are based on combining three years of data (2008-2010) from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to “stabilize” data for comparison purposes. This methodology, recommended by the CDC, compensates for any potential anomalies or usual changes due to the specific sample in any given year in any given state.  States with statistically significant (p<0.05) increases for one year are noted with an asterisk (*), states with statistically significant increases for two years in a row are noted with two asterisks (**), states with statistically significant increases for three years in a row are noted with three asterisks (***). Additional information about methodologies and confidence intervals is available in the report.  Individuals with a body mass index (BMI) (a calculation based on weight and height ratios) of 30 or higher are considered obese.

1. Mississippi (34.4%); 2. Alabama (32.3%); 3. West Virginia* (32.2%); 4. Tennessee (31.9%); 5. Louisiana (31.6%); 6. Kentucky** (31.5%); 7. Oklahoma** (31.4%); 8. South Carolina* (30.9%); 9. Arkansas (30.6%); 10. Michigan* (30.5%); 11. Missouri* (30.3%); 12. Texas** (30.1%); 13. Ohio (29.6%); 14. North Carolina (29.4%); 15. Indiana* (29.1%); 16. Kansas** (29.0%); 17. (tie) Georgia (28.7%); and South Dakota (28.7%); 19. Pennsylvania (28.5%); 20. Iowa (28.1%); 21. (tie) Delaware (28.0%); and North Dakota (28.0%); 23. Illinois** (27.7%); 24. Nebraska (27.6%); 25. Wisconsin (27.4%); 26. Maryland (27.1%); 27. Maine** (26.5%); 28. Washington (26.4%); 29. Florida** (26.1%); 30. (tie) Alaska (25.9%); and Virginia (25.9%); 32. Idaho (25.7%); 33. (tie) New Hampshire (25.6%); and New Mexico (25.6%); 35. (tie) Arizona (25.4%); Oregon (25.4%); and Wyoming (25.4%); 38. Minnesota (25.3%); 39. Nevada (25.0%); 40. California (24.8%); 41. New York (24.7%); 42. Rhode Island** (24.3%); 43. New Jersey (24.1%); 44. Montana (23.8%); 45. Vermont** (23.5%); 46. Utah (23.4%); 47. Hawaii (23.1%); 48. Massachusetts** (22.3%); 49. Connecticut (21.8%); 50. District of Columbia (21.7%); 51. Colorado* (19.8%). [Full report available at TFAH]

Related Links

• U.S. Obesity Epidemic Exploding Like Wildfire

U.S. Obesity Epidemic Exploding Like Wildfire

How big is too gross?

U.S. obesity rates have climbed over the past year

In 1995, the obesity rate in the U.S. was below 15 percent.  Today, at least two out of three states, a total of 38 states, have obesity rates above 25 percent, and only one state has a rate slightly lower than 20 percent.

“Since 1995, when data was available for every state, obesity rates have doubled in seven states and increased by at least 90 percent in 10 others. Obesity rates have grown fastest in Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee, and slowest in Washington, D.C., Colorado, and Connecticut.” Said a news release by Trust for America’s Health (TFAH).

The following is a summary of points from a recent TFAH report on U.S. obesity:

• Adult Obesity has increased in 16 states over the past year
• Since 1995 rates have doubled or nearly doubled in 17 states
• Twelve states now have obesity rates higher than 30 percent, where one in three people is obese. (Only one state was above 30 percent in 2007).
• Obesity epidemic is exploding in the South, where nine of the 10 states with the highest adult obesity rates are located.
• Mississippi tops the adult obesity rate table for the seventh year running with an obesity rate of 34.4 percent. (Colorado with an obesity rate of 19.8 percent is the only state below 20 percent mark, though nothing to write home about).
• Obesity rates have exploded in Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee.

Maps for Percent of Obese (BMI > 30) in U.S. Adults (T to B) 1985, 1995 and 2009.

Other bulging stats:

• For the second year running, obesity rates have risen  in Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Missouri, Rhode Island and Texas.

• For the third year running, more people in Florida, Kansas, Maine, Oklahoma and Vermont are getting fatter.
• States with obesity rates above 30 percent include: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia.
• Thirty-eight other states have obesity rates above 25 percent.

“Obesity has long been associated with other severe health problems, including diabetes and high blood pressure. New data in the report show how rates of both also have risen dramatically over the last two decades.”

• Diabetes rates have doubled in 8 states since 1995. (In 1995, only 4  states had diabetes rates above 6 percent.  Today, 43 states have diabetes rates over 7 percent, and 32 have rates above 8 percent).
• Hypertension rates in 37 states were over 20 percent, 20 years ago. Today, every state is over 20 percent, with 9 states over 30 percent.”

Childhood Obesity Epidemic. Image source: Obesity-net

The full report is posted on TFAH’s website at www.healthyamericans.org

From 2011 Disaster Calendar – June 27 entry

• [June 27, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,724 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
• Global Disasters. The number of adults with diabetes has doubled globally over the last 30 years to about 350 million. The U.S. has seen a threefold increase.  “Diabetes is a long-lasting and disabling condition, and it’s going to be the largest cost for many health systems,” said the lead author of a report published in the in the British journal Lancet.
• Of the 347 million people with diabetes, 138 million live in China and India and another 36 million in the USA and Russia.
• Among OECD countries, diabetes and glucose levels were highest in USA, Greenland, Malta, New Zealand and Spain.