Epic flood threats through summer as more rain predicted

EPIC DROUGHT and DELUGE

2011 summer flooding season could rival Great Flood of 1993—the worst in U.S. history: Forecasters

With rivers still running above flood stage and soils fully saturated, even small amounts of rain could cause  widespread flooding this summer, forecasters said.

The “Great Flood of 1993″ submerged vast swathes of at least 9 states  from April to August, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage.

“The sponge is fully saturated – there is nowhere for any additional water to go,” said the director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood threat continuing through summer.”

Some of the flooding is expected to occur in the areas that have already experienced major to record flooding, NWS said.

U.S. Precipitation Map. 8 – 14 day outlook precipitation probability for July 14 – 20, 2011. Click images to enlarge.

U.S. Precipitation Map. Three-months outlook precipitation probability for July, August and September 2011.

The highest summer flood risk areas include:

• North Central U.S.: Souris River (North Dakota) and Red River of the North (border of North Dakota and Minnesota), Minnesota River (Minnesota), Upper Mississippi River (Minnesota and Iowa), and Des Moines River (Iowa)

• Lower Missouri River : From Gavin’s Point (Nebraska and South Dakota border) downstream along the border of Nebraska and Iowa, continuing through the borders of Kansas and Missouri then through Missouri to the Mississippi River
• Tributaries to the Lower Missouri: The James and Big Sioux Rivers in North Dakota
• Lower Ohio River Valley: The White, Wabash and lower Ohio Rivers
• East and West of Rockies: North Platte River in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska and Yellowstone River in Wyoming and Montana, Utah and Colorado

The worst-hit areas so far:

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North and South Dakotas.

U.S. Drought

FIRE-EARTH models show that the drought in the southern U.S. would persist at least through the summer, intensifying in several areas.

U.S. Temperature Map. Three-month outlook temperature probability map for July, August and September 2011.

Map of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events in the U.S.  Click images to enlarge. [All images on this page were sourced from NOAA/CPC]

Related Links

• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify Posted on June 12, 2011
• Disaster Forecast: The United States Posted on July 10, 2010
• 2011 Much More Disastrous Posted on September 13, 2010
• Megadisasters Loom Posted on December 11, 2010

Santiago Earthquake Alert

Large earthquake could strike Santiago region, Chile

FIRE-EARTH models show that a large earthquake measuring ≥8.8Mw could strike Santiago region, Chile.

Earthquake Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.8Mw
• Location: About 60 km west of Santiago, Chile
• Expected Time of Occurrence: 2011/ early 2012
• Probability: ~ 0.7

Related Links

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Powerful Quake Strikes Kermadec Islands

Magnitude 7.6 EQ Strikes E of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands

The quake which struck at a depth of 20km was followed by several significant aftershocks.

10-degree Map Centered at 30°S,175°W

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude: 7.6
• Date-Time: Wednesday, July 06, 2011 at 19:03:16 UTC
• Location: 29.312°S, 176.204°W
• Depth: 20 km (12.4 miles)
• Region: KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
• Distances:
  • 163 km (101 miles) E of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
  • 347 km (215 miles) NE of L’Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands
  • 913 km (567 miles) S of NUKU`ALOFA, Tonga
  • 1185 km (736 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 14.1 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 4.4 km (2.7 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Tsunami Evaluation 

ISSUED by PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
AT 19:59UTC 06 JUL 2011

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS COVERED BY THIS CENTER.

Tsunami Wave Amplitude

“The largest wave we saw was a peak to peak amplitude of 1.9 meters which, looking at the sea surface, would be like a one meter rise. That wave was at Raoul Island very close to the earthquake and just to the west of the epicenter,” according to a spokesman at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

“Further away from the quake it is very small to no tsunami. Based on that information it was clear that it was very small and we cancelled [the tsunami warning.]“

Related Links

• Magnitude 7 Earthquake Hits Kermadec Islands
• Earthquake Cluster Zone Closing in on New Zealand
• Magnitude 6.5 quake strikes near Taupo, New Zealand
• GOOGLE: ‘The Search Engine from Hell’
• Significant earthquakes strike Ethiopia, New Zealand
• NOTICE: New Zealand Earthquake Forecasts

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Major Dust Storm Moves Across Arizona

Massive dust storm causes near zero visibility in large parts of Arizona

A 100-km wide and up to 3-km high dust storm moved over the Phoenix area Tuesday night, causing near-zero visibility, grounding flights, wreaking havoc on the roads and cutting power to thousands of homes and businesses.

“This was pretty significant,” said an NWS meteorologist. “We heard from a lot of people who lived here for a number of storms and this was the worst they’d seen.”

Wind gusts of up to 60MPH pushed the dust cloud, which originated in Tuscon area,  north across the desert and then northwest through Phoenix, Avondale, Tempe and Scottsdale, reports said.

A very large and historic dust storm moved through a large swatch of Arizona during the late afternoon and evening hours of July 5, 2011. Widespread reports of near zero visibility and winds gusting over 50 mph were received by the NWS Phoenix office. Image and Caption: NWS

North American Monsoon System (NAMS), aka, the Southwest Monsoon.

The dust storm is related to the North American Monsoon. “Monsoon storms can cause damaging winds, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and dust storms,” NWS said.

The belated North American Monsoon typically starts in mid-June and lasts through late September. 

NAMS

In terms of “weather”, the monsoon is associated with a dramatic in increase in summer precipitation, mostly in the form of thunderstorms.  The basic forcing of the monsoons is derived from a seasonal contrast in the heating of the land continent versus the ocean. Source o image and caption: NWS.

Related Links

• Who needs volcanoes in Arizona
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• The worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history

NO CHANCE: Malnourished kids fleeing Somalia’s drought

2011 Disaster Calendar – July 6 Entry

[July 6, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,715 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Somalia. The levels of malnutrition among young children fleeing Somalia’s drought are so high that they drop dead on their way to or within a day of arriving at relief camps in Ethiopia and Kenya, the UNHCR said. See Worst drought in living memory gripping Horn of Africa.
• UNHCR has estimated that more than a quarter of Somalia’s 7.5 million population are now either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries.
• “The massive influx of Somali refugees into neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia continues unabated. Relentless violence compounded by devastating drought has forced more than 135,000 Somalis to flee so far this year. In June alone, 54,000 people fled across the two borders, three times the number of people who fled in May.” UNHCR said.
• “There are now more than 750,000 Somali refugees living in the region, mostly in neighbouring Kenya (405,000), Yemen (187,000) and Ethiopia (110,000). Another 1.46 million are displaced within Somalia.”

Eastern Africa: Drought – Humanitarian Snapshot (as of 28 Jun 2011)

Source: UNOCHA. Click image to enlarge. Click here to view the original map (PDF)

• Sudan. Some 200 people drowned in the Red Sea when a boat carrying Sudanese migrants to Saudi Arabia sank off the coast of Sudan, reports said.

• Mexico. Death toll from tropical storm Arlene, the first major storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, has climbed to at least 22, reports said.
• TS Arlene made landfall on the Mexican coast at Cabo Rojo late last week with sustained winds of about 65mph, bringing up to 144mm of rain  (at Tamuin), and causing deadly flooding.
• Most of the deaths are said to have occurred from drowning.

Related Links

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

About Half the Kids In Fukushima Have Thyroid Radiation Exposure ‎

 45 percent of children in Japan’s Fukushima Prefecture were exposed to thyroid radiation:  Report

Of more than 1,000 children screened for radiation exposure in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan,  45 percent have tested positive for thyroid radiation exposure, according to a statement by the Nuclear Safety Commission published today, a report said.

The survey was conducted on 1,080 children from newborns to age 15 in the cities of Iitate, Iwaki and Kawamata between March 26 and 30 following the radiation leak  caused by the core meltdown in Fukushima Dai-Ichi NPP.

The amounts of exposure averaged about 0.04 microsievert per hour, the report said.  “The largest exposure was 0.1 microsievert per hour, equivalent to a yearly dose of 50 millisieverts for a 1-year-old.”

Contaminated Soil

Soil samples taken at four locations in Fukushima City on June 26 were found to contain radioactive cesium of up to 46,000 becquerels per kilogram, or nearly 5.6 times the legal limit of 10,000 becquerels per kg.

In one area of the city contamination levels exceeded 931,000 becquerels per square meters.

Half-life of some radioactive elements

[NOTE: Half-life is the time taken for a radioactive substance to decay by half.]

• Cesium-134 ~ 2  years
• Cesium-137 ~ 30 years
• Iodine-131 ~ 8 days
• Plutonium-239 ~ 24,200 years

• Ruthenium-103 ~ 39 days [Ruthenium is a fission product of uranium-235.]
• Ruthenium-106 ~ 374 days
• Strontium-90 ~ 28.85 years  [Strontium-90 is a product of nuclear fission and is found in large amounts in spent nuclear fuel and in radioactive waste from nuclear reactors.]

• Uranium-234 ~  246,000 years
• Uranium-235 ~ 703.8  million years
• Uranium-238  ~ 4.468 billion years

What is a lethal dose of radiation from a single Exposure?

Studies of the 1945 atomic bombing at Hiroshima and Nagasaki show that 100 percent of victims whose bodies were exposed to 600,000 millirems (6,000 mSv) died from radiation. About 50 percent of victims who received  450,000 millirems (4,500 mSv) of radiation also died.

(Note: Rem is a unit of ionizing radiation equal to the amount that produces the same damage to humans as one roentgen of high-voltage x-rays.  Source: MIT)

1 rem = 10 mSv  (1 Sv = 100 rem)

Background Radiation in millirems per year (mrem/yr)

• Average background radiation (US):  300
• Higher altitudes (eg. Denver): 400

“Safe Levels” of Radiation (U.S.)

Limits above natural background radiation levels (average 300 millirems per year) and medical radiation:

• Occupation Limit: Maximum of 5,000  (the limit for a worker using radiation)
• Average Natural Background: 300

[Note: Lifetime cumulative exposure should be limited to a person's age multiplied by 1,000 millirems, e.g., a 70-year-old person, 70,000 millirems.]

Adults

• Max single dose for an adult: 3,000
• Annual total dose: 5,000

Under 18

• Max single dose for a person aged under 18 years: 300 millirems (whole body equivalent)
• Annual total exposure: 500

Fetal Exposure

• Maximum limit for fetal exposure during gestation period:  50 millirems per month above background levels

Medical

• Single Chest X-ray (the whole body equivalent): 2 millirem

Air Travel

• Coast-to-coast US round trip flight: 12 millirems

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

Related Links

• Japan’s Fukushima Nuke Plant Still Leaking
• 2011 Disaster Calendar – July
• Disaster Calendar – June 2011
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

Magnitude 6.5 quake strikes near Taupo, New Zealand

Significant Earthquake Strikes 30 km West of Taupo

Earthquake Details [Source Geonet]

• Event Date/Time: July 5 2011 at 03:36UTC
• Position: 38.67°S, 175.75°E
• Depth: 150 km
• Richter magnitude: 6.5
• Region: Taupo
• Location:
• 30 km west of Taupo
• Distances [USGS]
• 69 km (42 miles) SW of Rotorua, New Zealand
• 144 km (89 miles) NW of Napier, New Zealand
• 209 km (129 miles) SSE of Auckland, New Zealand
• 310 km (192 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

Quake Maps

Earthquake Location Map. Source: GeoNet NZ

The Isoseismal Map above shows contours, derived from a model, of equal MMI shaking intensity for the earthquake. Source: GeoNet NZ

Related Links

• GOOGLE: ‘The Search Engine from Hell’
• Significant earthquakes strike Ethiopia, New Zealand
• NOTICE: New Zealand Earthquake Forecasts

Puyehue Ash: Patagonia Declared a Disaster Area

Patagonia mountain in SW Argentina has been declared a disaster area due to Puyehue ash

Argentine government has declared the Patagonia mountain range in SW Argentina an environmental disaster area because of the millions of tons of volcanic ash from Puyehue eruption that have blanketed the entire region.

The country’s air travel and tourism industries have been severely affected by the ongoing eruption that began on June 4.

The skiing resort city of Bariloche and Villa La Angostura in the Andean mountains have been among the hardest hit areas, with the airports in both cities remaining shut since the eruption began.

The two provinces of Rio Negro and Neuquen, located at the northern edge of Patagonia, have also been declared as disaster areas due to loss of livestock, crops and severe damage.

Some 4,300 Chileans who were forced to evacuate after the eruption were allowed to return to their homes on Sunday, reports said.

“In a speech broadcast on national television, Kirchner said $2.41 billion [pesos, or about 600million dollars] would also be awarded to 1,400 farmers and businesses in the affect area on the condition that they don’t fire their workers.” AFP reported.

However, the border crossing between Chile and Argentina at Cardenal Samore remains closed because large sections of the road on both sides of the crossing are buried under a thick layer of volcanic debris.

Movement of volcanic ash clouds from Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Eruption between 5 and 12 June, 2011. Credit: NOAA and EUMETSAT

Puyehue eruption has forced thousands of flight cancellations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay and Uruguay and, causing major disruptions in air travel throughout the Southern Hemisphere.

Related Links

• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle: ONGOING ERUPTIONS, ASH MOVING EAST
• Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Eruption Forces More Flight Cancellations
• Chile’s Puyehue volcano explodes

Resurgence of C. difficile in Ontario, Canada

Super superbug that takes your breath away

C. difficile kills three times as many people as MRSA

2011 Disaster Calendar – July 4 Entry

[July 4, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,717 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Ontario, Canada. Death toll from the latest outbreak of C. difficile in the Niagara region has climbed to 15, with the latest death reported at Welland Hospital.
• Demonstrators are planning to protest management of Greater Niagara General Hospital, where 4 people died from the infection, on Wednesday, The report said.
• Nine others have died at the St. Catharines General hospital and at two the Welland Hospital.
• At least 42 other patients remain in hospital, 26 of whom contracted the infection there.

Latest figures from the Health Protection Agency show there were 55,681 cases of Clostridium difficile infection reported in patients aged 65 years and above in England in 2006. (Source: SIMeL Italy)

“Diarrhea can range from being a nuisance to a life threatening or even fatal disease.” The Clostridium difficile bacteria are naturally present in the intestine but kept under control by other bacteria. Antibiotics can kill some of these, allowing C. difficile to take hold. Image source and other images. Click image to enlarge.

• Wisconsin and Minnesota, USA.  A state of emergency was declared in Burnett County after a massive storm tore across three-quarters of the county Friday with straight line winds in excess of 110MPH, reports said.
• The storm reportedly killed two people and left at least 39 others injured, including three critically.
• Downed powerlines, which have left thousands of northwestern Wisconsin without power, started dozens of fires across several counties.
• In Minnesota, the storm affected Marshall (state of emergency declared), Redwood Falls, the Twin Cities and St. Cloud. In Wisconsin, damage was reported in  Ashland, Burnett, Douglas, Marathon, Polk, Sawyer and Washburn counties.
• “The heavy rain was a factor in several motor vehicle accidents, including a collision between a car and train in Douglas County,” said a report.

• Bukidnon province, Philippines. Up to two dozen people have been killed or reported as missing after a large landslide triggered by weeks of torrential rain buried a part of Valencia City.

Related Links

• Super Superbug C. difficile
• Disease Emergence and Resurgence of Infectious Diseases‎

• Mass Die-offs
• “Flesh Eating Bacteria” Linked to NSAIDs
• Climate Change Spreads “Deadly Dozen” Diseases
• First Came the Rains …

Mega Disasters:

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Los Alamos Fire Grows by 20 percent in 2 Days

Las Conchas blaze has now consumed at least 121,248 acres

Las Conchas fire continues to grow despite higher relative humidity in the fire area

Las Conchas Fire Map, July 2-3, 2011. Click image to enlarge. Full Size.

Las Conchas Fire Summary of Details

• Size: 121,248 acres
• Percent Contained: 11%
• Fuels Involved: Mixed Conifer, Ponderosa Pine. Fuel moisture is extremely low.
• Date Started: 06/26/2011
• Location: On Santa Fe National Forest in Sandoval, Los Alamos, and Rio Arriba Counties; Santa Clara Reservation; Bandelier National Monument; Valles Caldera National Preserve and private in-holdings.
• Cause: Human – under investigation [The fire was reportedly ignited by a fallen power line] 
• Resources: 1,995 Personnel; 18 Helicopters; 72 Engines; 26 Water Tenders; 8 Dozers
• Residences: 450 threatened; 63 destroyed
• Outbuildings: 140 threatened; 32 destroyed
• Injuries to Date: 4

Photos:

Las Conchas Fire. Looking toward the caldera from fire camp. Credit: B. Stalter

Las Conchas Fire. A pyrocumulus cloud is visible from the Valles Caldera. Credit: J. Coil

Related Sites

• Santa Fe National Forest
• InciWeb
• Fire Photos

Related Links

• Los Alamos Fire Breaks NM Record
• Los Alamos fire explodes to nearly 100,000 acres

Disease Emergence and Resurgence of Infectious Diseases‎

2011 Disaster Calendar – July 3 Entry

[July 3, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,718 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Delaware and Virginia, USA. Late blight, the historic disease responsible for the great Irish Potato Famine in the 1840s, has been found in Delaware and on the Eastern Shore of Virginia, a report said.

Symptoms of potato late blight. Source: Plant pathology, MSU

• Ireland. A baby boom has pushed Ireland’s population to its highest level in more than 150 years, despite massive emigration that followed the collapse of the economy in 2008, a report said.
• “The population of Ireland hit an all-time high of 8.2 million in 1841, when all of the island was part of the United Kingdom. It fell to 5.1 million 10 years later after a devastating famine that forced millions to leave.”
• The island of Ireland’s total population is now over 6 million [including 1.8 million people who live in Northern Ireland.]

• England. About half a million children (aged 4 to 14) in England may be at risk of developing life-threatening”fatty liver disease” because they are overweight, reports said.
• The Maldives. The gov has drafted the National Defense Force to help fight an outbreak of dengue fever that has escalated to “an epidemic,” a report said.
• “The Maldives has been battling a growing number of dengue fever cases in 2011, with 300 cases and five deaths reported in just the first two months of the year. There has been a reported spike in the number of cases of the virus reported in Male’; cases that were linked earlier this year by one health expert to a construction boom in the capital. However, most of the fatalities have been islanders who died in transit to regional hospitals, with many of the most serious cases having affected children.”
• Auckland, New Zealand. A measles outbreak has infected dozens [possibly hundreds] of people in Auckland, and is expected to spread beyond the region, health officials have warned. The highly contagious disease, spread by air travelers, have also infected many in dozens of other countries including the U.S. and Canada.

• NSW and QLD. Australia. Hendra outbreak is threatening eastern Australia. “Authorities are battling to prevent a serious outbreak of Hendra virus in eastern states, with four horses already dead and dozens of people possibly exposed to the lethal bat-borne illness,” a report said.
• “Hendra virus was first detected in September 1994 at a property in the Brisbane suburb of hendra in an outbreak which killed 20 horses and one person.
• “There have been 14 outbreaks of the virus since. Four of the seven people ever diagnosed with the virus have died.” (source)
• South Africa. At least 23,000 ostriches have been culled since April when an outbreak of avian flu was first reported.

Related Links

• Mass Die-offs
• “Flesh Eating Bacteria” Linked to NSAIDs
• Climate Change Spreads “Deadly Dozen” Diseases
• First Came the Rains …

Mega Disasters:

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Members Messages – 3 July 2011 UPDATE

To CASF Members:

As of today, certain messages/Forecasts will be delivered directly to your local PCGL. Stay tuned!

To CJ Members:

NO change in the UDCC, or voting procedure.

FIRE-EARTH

Indonesia’s Soputan Volcano Erupts

Mount Soputan, one of Sulawesi island’s most active volcanoes, erupted again on Sunday

North Sulawesi’s Soputan volcano erupted on Sunday at about 6:00 am local time, ejecting a column of volcanic gases about 6km into the air.

However, no evacuation order was issued as the volcano did not pose an immediate danger, officials said.

“They nearest residents live some eight kilometers from the mountain and so evacuation is not yet necessary [since the current evacuation zone was set at a 6km radius around the volcano, a forested area that is uninhabited,]“ spokesman of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said.

“Last night, at around 11 pm, the mountain entered its eruption phase,” he said.

Mt Soputan is located about 2,160 km (1,340 miles) northeast of Indonesian capital Jakarta. The volcano  had previously erupted in 2008.

Soputan volcano spews thick smoke and heat clouds in Minahasa on October 7, 2008. Source: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Indonesia, which sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is home to 150 listed volcanoes, some 109 to 130 of which are regarded as active, according to various sources.

A Map of Listed Volcanoes of Indonesia.

Summary of Volcano Details

Country: Indonesia
Region Name: Sulawesi Island
Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
Last Known Eruption: 2008
Summit Elevation: 1,784 m    
Location:     1.108°N, 124.73°E

Soputan on a restful day!

The small Soputan stratovolcano, seen here from the west, was constructed on the southern rim of the Quaternary Tondano caldera in northern Sulawesi Island. The youthful, largely unvegetated Soputan volcano is one of Sulawesi’s most active volcanoes. During historical time the locus of eruptions has included both the summit crater and Aeseput, a prominent NE flank vent that formed in 1906 and was the source of intermittent major lava flows until 1924. Photo (undated) by Agus Solihin (Volcanological Survey of Indonesia). Image and caption: GVP.

Pacific Ring of Fire

The Pacific Ring of Fire is an area of frequent siesmic activity and volcanic eruptions caused by plate tectonic movements. Encircling the basin of the Pacific Ocean, which contains oceanic trenches, volcanic arcs, and volcanic belts, the 40,000 km Ring of Fire is home to 452 volcanoes. About ninety percent of the world’s earthquakes including 80% of the world’s major earthquakes occur along the Pacific Ring of Fire.

Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The trenches are shown in blue-green. The volcanic island arcs, although not labeled, are parallel to, and always landward of, the trenches. For example, the island arc associated with the Aleutian Trench is represented by the long chain of volcanoes that make up the Aleutian Islands. (Source: USGS.)

Other Volcanic Activity/ Unrest

•  Ambrym, Vanuatu (SW Pacific)
• Kirishima, Kyushu
• Nabro, Eritrea
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile

[Source: Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for June 22 - 28]

Related Links

• Mount Soputan volcano erupts again! [October 7, 2008]

• Messages From Earth’s Powerhouse
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 19 March 2009
• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

ExxonMobil pipeline leak into Yellowstone River forces evacuations

Crude oil spill from an ExxonMobil pipeline into Montana’s Yellowstone River forces evacuations of nearby residents: Report

The spill came from a crude oil pipeline that runs from Silver Tip to Billings, Montana, according to the ExxonMobil Pipeline Company.

Nearby residents in Laurel, Montana, were evacuated in the early hours the morning but were allowed to return to their homes later in the morning, according to Laurel City Fire and Ambulance services.

“Evacuation orders for all of Yellowstone County have been lifted,” the emergency services spokesman said.

The Yellowstone Falls in the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone. Yellowstone River, a major tributary of the Missouri River, is about 1,120km (~700  miles) long and runs in the western United States. The river and its tributaries drain a wide area stretching from the Rocky Mountains across  southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Photo credit: Scott Catron, GNU license. Click image to enlarge.

Cause of Rupture, Size of Rupture UNKNOWN!!

“Exxon said the cause of the rupture was not yet known and it was unclear how much oil had been released,” a report quoted the company as saying.

“We recognize the seriousness of this incident and are working hard to address it,” the company said.

Related Links

• Disasters Caused by Oil and Gas Drilling, Oil Spills, Leaks, Polluting Land, Water and Air
• “No lesson” from the BP disaster

Los Alamos Fire Breaks NM Record

US Wildfires Consume 7.7 Million Acres in 6 Months

Massive Las Conchas Blaze Raging Near Los Alamos Now the Largest in New Mexico History

As of July 1, 2011 at 4:00 am MDT, Las Conchas Blaze had consumed at least 103,993 acres of Conifer and Ponderosa Pines in  Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico.

Las Conchas Fire Map for July 1. Map Created 06/30/2011 11:35:06. Click image to enlarge. Click HERE for PDF version

Fire Summary [details as of July 1, 2011, 4:00 am MDT]

• National Preparedness Level: 3
• Southern Area Preparedness Level: 5

• Name: Las Conchas Fire
  
• Date Started: 1 pm on  6/26/2011
• Location: Approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35
• Fuels: Mixed Conifer, Ponderosa Pine. Fuel moisture is extremely low.
• Cause: Unknown – under investigation [The fire was reportedly ignited by a fallen power line]
• Size: at least 103,993 acres   [FIRE-EARTH estimate: 112,000 acres]
• Percent Contained: 5%
• Residences: [Estimated dozens destroyed or damaged. Recent official data unavailable, as of posting.]
• Commercial Property : [About a dozen destroyed or damaged. Recent official data unavailable. ]
• Other structures: [About a dozen destroyed or damaged. Recent official data unavailable.]
• Humidity:  1%
• Weather: Critical fire weather conditions associated with strong winds of 25 to 40 mph and low relative humidity below 12 percent will develop across much of Colorado, northern New Mexico, west  Texas and southwestern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms will form in southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains and the western Great Lakes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across Florida and south Texas.
• Fire Info. The Las Conchas and Donaldson fires in New Mexico were extremely active yesterday. Thousands of people who live near these fires remain evacuated. Fire managers are prepared for another day of critical fire weather conditions in several western states. Firefighters were able to reach containment goals on seven large fires yesterday.

The Dry Lakes Fire, which consumed about 94,000 acres of the Gila National Forest in 2003, was previously New Mexico’s largest recorded blaze.

US Wildfires by State [YTD]

• Alabama: 120,000 [Source: NIFC]
• Alaska: 262,621 acres [Source: Alaska Interagency Coordination Center Situation Report]
• Arizona: At least 1,000,000 acres [Source: InciWeb, others, some data may be missing]
• Arkansas: 155,000 acres [Source: NIFC]
• California: 37,000 acres [Source: InciWeb, others]
• Colorado: 150,000 acres [Source: InciWeb, others]
• Florida: About 400,000 [Source: fl-dof and others]
• Georgia: 409,207 acres [Source: Georgia Forestry Commission]
• Kansas: 112, 000 [Source: NIFC]
• Kentucky: 30,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• Louisiana: 160,000 acres [Source: NIFC]
• Minnesota: 90,000 acres [Source: NIFC]
• Mississippi: 55,000 acres [Source: NIFC]
• Missouri: 50,000 acres [Source: NIFC]
• Nebraska: 30,000  [Source: NIFC]
• New Mexico: 1,000,000 [Source: Various]
• North Carolina: 220,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• Oregon: 12,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• South Carolina: 75,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• South Dakota: 23,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• Tennessee: 22,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• Texas: 3,215,168 acres [Source: Texas Forest Service]
• Wisconsin: 25,000 acres  [Source: NIFC]
• Others: 70,000 [Source: Various]
• National Total: ~ 7.7 million acres

Texas: The Worst Hit State

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated the entire state of Texas a disaster area with 213 of the states 254 counties declared as primary natural disaster areas following one of the worst droughts ever recorded. Since January 1, 2011, the drought, wildfires and other natural disasters have destroyed at least a third of the  corn, oats, wheat, pasture and forage crops in the Lone Star State.  The back-to-back disasters have also destroyed tens of thousands of cattle, horses and other farm animals, so far this year. Source: 2011 Disaster Calendar – June

A view of the Rock House wildfire seen from the McDonald Observatory in the Davis Mountains. Photo Source: InciWeb

Texas Fires

Since fire season began on Nov. 15, 2010, Texas Forest Service and local firefighters have responded to 13,467 fires that have burned a record-setting 3,292,070 acres. The largest fire burned 314,444 acres in Presidio county in West Texas in April. Six of the state’s largest wildfires occurred in a 19-day period during that month.

Currently 237 of 254 Texas counties have burn bans. More than two-thirds of Texas counties have experienced wildfire this season. More than 2,000 structures, including 554 homes, have been lost. Source: InciWeb

Related Links

• Los Alamos fire explodes to nearly 100,000 acres