Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for the ‘carbon emissions’ Category

Sudden Surges in Atmospheric CO2: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Posted by feww on July 23, 2013

Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …

FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO2 concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.

To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.

global co2 may2013
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated.  Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)

FIRE-EARTH - HION Index - 1 JULY 2013 - hsc2
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

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Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, CO2, CO2 Emissions, CO2e | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast

Posted by feww on May 11, 2013

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Crosses 400PPM Milestone at Hawaii Observatory

On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.

Last 5 days of daily average CO2

May 09 – 400.03  |  May 08 – 399.42  |  May 07 – 399.59  |  May 06 – 399.43 |  May 05 – 399.47  |

This is the first time the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in Hawaii tops 400ppm since measurement began in 1958, according to ESRL data.

The rise to 400ppm level of the atmospheric carbon dioxide represents yet another appalling milestone in the brief history of the homo ignarus.

The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much carbon dioxide was probably as many as 5 million years ago.

dwaco2mlo
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa.  The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]

Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

  • Week of April 28, 2013: 399.58 ppm
  • Weekly value from 1 year ago: 396.81 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago: 378.50 ppm

Recent Global CO2

  • February 2013: 395.98 ppm
  • February 2012: 393.05 ppm

Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

  • March 2013: 397.34 ppm
  • March 2012: 394.45 ppm

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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Update

Posted by feww on April 29, 2013

Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory 

  • Week of April 21, 2013:     398.68 ppm
  • Weekly value from 1 year ago:     396.66 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago:     378.46 ppm

One Year of  CO2 daily and weekly means at Mauna Loa

co2- weekly mlo
The graph, updated weekly, shows as individual points daily mean CO2 up to and including the week (Sunday through Saturday) previous to today. The daily means are based on hours during which CO2 was likely representative of “background” conditions, defined as times when the measurement is representative of air at mid-altitudes over the Pacific Ocean. That air has had several days time or more to mix, smoothing out most of the CO2 variability encountered elsewhere, making the measurements representative of CO2 over hundreds of km or more. The selection process is designed to filter out any influence of nearby emissions, or removals, of CO2 such as caused by the vegetation on the island of Hawaii, and likewise emissions from the volcanic crater of Mauna Loa.  Source: ESRL/NOAA

Recent Mauna Loa CO2

  • March 2013:     397.34 ppm
  • March 2012:     394.45 ppm

Recent Global CO2

  • February 2013:     395.98 ppm
  • February 2012:     393.05 ppm

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400 PPM

Posted by feww on April 3, 2013

Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH projections show, based on the data provided by Mauna Loa Observatory, the average CO2 at Mauna Loa could climb to 400ppm in the next 6 weeks.

Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

  • Week of March 24, 2013:     397.92 ppm
  • Weekly value from 1 year ago:     395.30 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago:     377.06 ppm

CO2-1y-dwm
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa [April 2012 - March 2013.]  The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]  

Recent Mauna Loa CO2

  • February 2013:     396.80 ppm
  • February 2012:     393.54 ppm

CO2-mm-mlo
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. [Source:  ESRL/NOAA]

CO2-MLO
Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii [Source:  ESRL/NOAA]

Recent Global CO2

  • January 2013:     395.09 ppm
  • January 2012:     392.44 ppm

CO2-gl
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. [Images sourced from ESRL/NOAA]

Historic

Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2012.

long-lived ghg
Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005].  Source: ESRL/NOAA.  Click on image to view larger image. Click HERE for full size figure .

Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, CO2, CO2e, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

GHG Concentration at Record Level: WMO

Posted by feww on November 24, 2010

Brief History of Mankind

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at record levels: the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The average mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached record level in 2009,WMO reported.

  • CO2 concentrations ~ 386.8 ppm
  • CH4 ~ 1,803 ppb
  • N2O ~ 322.5 ppb

These values are greater than the corresponding atmospheric concentrations in pre-industrial times (~1750) by 38%, 158% and 19%, respectively.

In the twenty year period between 1990 and 2009, the combined radiative forcing—the balance between atmosphere’s incoming and outgoing radiation—for all persistent greenhouse gases increased by 27.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of the increase, according to the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index.


Source: WMO GHG Bulletin

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing 63.54 %2 to the overall global radiative forcing. It is responsible for 85% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and 83% over the last five years. For about 10 000 years before the industrial revolution, the atmospheric abundance of CO2 was nearly constant at ~ 280 ppm (ppm = number of molecules of the gas per million molecules of dry air). This level represented a balance among the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Since 1750, atmospheric CO2 has increased by 38%, primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels (8.7 Gt carbon in 2008, http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/), deforestation and landuse change. High-precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 beginning in 1958 show that the average increase in CO2 in the atmosphere (airborne fraction) corresponds to ~ 55% of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuel combustion. WMO


Source: WMO GHG Bulletin

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China determined to go all the way!

Posted by feww on October 8, 2010

Polluting the earth day in day out, and expecting ‘miracles’

Business as usual in the world’s top GHG polluter, despite the evident consequences

Image of the Day:

Thought Hainan Was an Island!!


Original Caption: A woman walks in a water-flooded residence community after heavy rainfall in Haikou, capital of south China’s Hainan Province, Oct. 8, 2010. Haikou witnessed successive heavy rainfall for eight days and the rainfall flooded many roads and streets here. Local meteorological department forecasted that the rain won’t stop until Oct. 11. (Xinhua/Fu Yongtao). Image may be subject to copyright. More images…

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Congratulating India!

Posted by feww on October 5, 2010

Kyoto Protocol Scratch Your ****

India Now Third Highest GHG Emitter


India has beaten Russia to become the world’s third largest GHG emitter.

The Pollution Horses of Apocalypse

Though the bronze medalist lags behind the top two worse emitters by a furlong.

  1. The Gold Medalist: CHINA [with more than 23% of global emissions]
  2. The Silver Medalist: USA [more than 22%]
  3. The Bronze Medalist: INDIA [more than 5%]
  4. Fourth Place: Russia [about 5%]

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  • Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part V : Hundreds of thousands of tons of surplus chemical weapons including large quantities of arsenic, cyanide, mustard gas, sarin gas and VX nerve gas are dumped off the US Atlantic coast as well as off other countries. [And a number of nuclear weapons are lying down there, too!]

  • Terrible Ocean Headlines : About one third of the world’s annual emissions of CO2 is absorbed by the surface of the oceans forming carbonic acid (ancient name acid of air or aerial acid), H2CO3, which is increasing the acidity of the oceans to as much as 7.7 pH in some areas off the California coast. [Pre-industrial (1700s) ocean pH: 8.179]

  • Human carbon emissions make oceans corrosive : ‘Carbon dioxide spewed by human activities has made ocean water so acidic that it is eating away at the shells and skeletons of starfish, coral, clams and other sea creatures …’

  • Dead Zones : Eutrophication—the overenrichment of water by nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus—has emerged as a leading water quality problem. This report identifies over 415 areas worldwide that are experiencing eutrophication symptoms, and there are significant information gaps in many regions. (Source: WRI)

Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, carbon intesive economy, greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gases | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Image of the Day: F*** OFF Coal Pushers

Posted by feww on March 20, 2009

Direct action seems to be the only way to tackle soaring carbon emissions —Climate Scientist

Climate activists
Climate activists protest at this month’s Guardian Climate Change Summit in London over plans for a coal-fired power station in Kingsnorth, Kent. Photograph: Alex Sturrock/AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The first action that people should take is to use the democratic process. What is frustrating people, me included, is that democratic action affects elections but what we get then from political leaders is greenwash.

“The democratic process is supposed to be one person one vote, but it turns out that money is talking louder than the votes. So, I’m not surprised that people are getting frustrated. I think that peaceful demonstration is not out of order, because we’re running out of time.” James Hansen, NASA climatologist, said.

Corporate lobbying is undermining democratic attempts to reduce CO2 pollution. “The democratic process doesn’t quite seem to be working,” he said.

Posted in carbon emissions, Climate Change, Coal Pushers, direct action, JAMES HANSEN | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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