Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Ike’s Photos and Videos

2009: A New Climate

What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?

Based on MSRB/CASF dynamic energy models and FEWW climate model there’s a high probability that:

1. The duration of Atlantic Hurricane season may be longer in 2009. It could start earlier than June 1, and end later than November 30. The FEWW model forecasts an 11-18 day increase in the season.

2. The storms could get stronger throughout the season. Our model indicates average increases in the maximum wind speeds of tropical storms as follows

• Category 5 hurricanes [Saffir-Simpson scale] : 16 to 19 percent increase
• Category 4 hurricanes : 14 to 17 percent
• Category 3 hurricanes : 8 to 11 percent
• Category 2 hurricanes : 4 to 6 percent
• Category 1 hurricanes : 2 to 4 percent

Now, back to Ike

Latest Headlines:

• More than 1 million are evacuated but there are four deaths as 20 inches of rain and 100-mph winds pound Cuba. Reports mount of earlier deaths and destruction in Haiti. Texas could be next. (LA Times)

• Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained at a trickle on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike moved toward the region, triggering the second storm-related wave of offshore platform evacuations and production shutdowns in less than two weeks. (Reuters).

• Some two million Cubans had been driven from their homes by the storm’s winds topping 130 km/h (80 mph) more than 24 hours after it first made landfall on Sunday. (AFP)

• Ike earlier caused 66 deaths in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of the homes in the Turks and Caicos Islands. (BBC)

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison:

CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Franklin
• Date and Time: Sept 9, 2008 at 12:00UTC

• Location: At 12:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 82.4 west, or about 65 Km south of Havana, Cuba.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 130 km/hr, Ike is a Category one hurricane  on FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Some strengthening may occur this morning before Ike moves over Western Cuba.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur once Ike reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 km/hr and  is expected to continue in that direction in the next 48 hrs.  The center of Ike should reach the south coast of western Cuba in the next few hours, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 355 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 965mb (28.50 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern coast of  Cuba.
• Storm surge flooding of up to 90cm, along with Large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.
• Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
  currents.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 25cm over Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
  floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10cm are possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 2.5 to 8cm are possible over the Florida Keys.
• Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida today.

Hurericane Ike: Latest Photos and Videos

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Hurricane Ike Video and Photo Links [See following pages]

View of the sky over Havana’ s harbor on the impending arrival of Hurricane Ike, September 7, 2008. Adalberto Roque. Image may be subject to copyright.

Image Galleries:

• Gallery No 1
• Gallery No 2
• Gallery No 3
• Gallery No 4
• Gallery No 5
• Gallery No 6

Videos are embedded on the below linked pages:

• Ike weakens to Category 1 hurricane over Cuba
• Storm Ike’s uncertain course hampers U.S. plans
• Hurricane Ike pummels Cuba, aims for Gulf Coast

• Deadly hurricane heads for Havana

• Four dead as hurricane hits Cuba
• BBC Weather tracks Hurricane Ike
• ‘Hundreds’ killed by Haiti storm
• Hurricane Ike devastates Caribbean

Thought for the Day: The LHC and Earth

Big Bang, Indeed! [Putting the Cart before ...]

The good news: “We” are about to find some answers to how the universe was born [or so we hope!]

The Bad News: We have no idea how to stop killing the earth!

See: Astronomical Cost of LHC Reminds You of ISS

Related Links:

• Frustrated NASA chief vents about agency’s fate
• Shoot Down the ISS

• God Particle
• 286W

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

Ike makes landfall in Cuba

Weakened fortuitously to a Category 3 hurricane, Ike made landfall in Cuba in the province of Holguin near Punto de Sama on the north coast of eastern Cuba at about 01:45UTC, NHC said, with maximum winds of about 205 km/hr.

GOES-East 4km IR4 Floater 2 -  Date and Time: Latest Image, Updated – Credit: RAMSDIS-CIRA/RAMM - Colorado State University

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.08 at 14:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 21:15:44N Longitude: 78:26:22W. GOES-12 1 km visible imagery. [Data Elements: The center of Ike may be over open water south of Cuba soon. Ike may not weaken as much as previously shown.] Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

By 03:00 the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 75.8 west near Cabo Lucrecia about 220km east of Camaguey Cuba.

Ike is now moving in a westerly direction at 20 km/hr, and is expected to turn west to west-northwest in the next 24-48 hours.  On this track the center will move over eastern, central and western Cuba through Tuesday.

Since making landfall, Ike’ maximum sustained winds have marginally receded to about 195 km/hr, and is now a category 3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Further weakening is likely as Ike moves over Cuba.

Ike’s Legacy in the Caribbeans [so far]

Turks and Caicos Islands (Population 22,500): T & C took the full brunt of Ike as a Category 4 hurricane with 215 km/hr winds. About 80 percent of the houses on Grand Turk (population 3,000 were destroyed or damaged, an official said.

The Dominican Republic: Up to 50,000 people abandoned their homes because of the powerful winds and rain.

Haiti: The downpour from Ike caused the La Quinte river to rise again flooding the city of Gonaives for the second time since Hannah struck. By Sunday evening Gonaives was “a devastated and isolated city,” its mayor reportedly said, “all of our bridges to the rest of the country have collapsed.”

For additional images see: Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike On The North Coast Of Eastern Cuba

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Pasch
• Date and Time: Sept 8, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About195 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is still a very dangerous  3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale. Some weakening is expected as Ike moves over Cuba.

• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).
• Storm surge flooding: 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hours.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over eastern and central Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
  • The southern Bahamas: Possible rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches from Ike.
  • Portions of Hispaniola: Additional amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
  • Turks and Caicos islands: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches.
  • Florida Keys: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

Hurricane Ike, TS Hannah, TS Josephine – Update 9-5

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Tropical Storm Hannah

FEWW Comment: Big Hannah’s torrential rains have already submerged parts of Haiti in more than  two meters of floodwater, leaving about 140 people dead. A nightmare scenario in the US Atlantic coast could unfold, if Hannah were to move in slow motion over the U.S. east coast, as already predicted by NHC, without necessarily making landfall, repeating a similar performance to her Haiti debut.

Updated Tropical Atlantic Imagery – Aviation color enhancement – GOES East – Date and time as shown on image. Credit NOAA/SSD/NESDIS

TS Hannah: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA/NHC

TS Hannah

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Rhome
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 / 06:00UTC
• Location: The center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 77.2 West or about 90 km north of Great Abaco Island and about 790 km south of Wilmington, North Carolina.
• Direction: Hanna is moving toward the northwest. NHC expects a gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed later today. The center of Hanna will be near the southeast coast of the United States later Today. However, rains and winds associated with Hanna will reach the coast well in advance of the center.
• Speed: About 30 km/hr.
• Wind Speed: About 105 km/hr with higher gusts. It is still possible for Hanna to become a hurricane.
• Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 510 km (v. large) mainly to the north and east of the center.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 984mb (29.05 inches).
• Additional Information: Hanna could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches over the Northern Bahamas and the eastern portions of south and north Carolina, with maximum isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.  Rainfall totals of up to 3 inches are possible from the Georgia coast southward to the central Florida coast. Very heavy rainfall amounts are likely to spread rapidly northward into the mid Atlantic states and New England from Friday night into Saturday and may result in flooding.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

NOAA/NHC

FEWW Comment: Ike, having strengthened to a very dangerous Category 4B on the FEWW Hurricane Scale just over 24 hours ago, is now slightly downgraded to a category 4A hurricane churning in a westerly direction. If Ike remains on its 5-day NHC-predicted path, and maintains its current strength as a major hurricane (Category 3A or above,) it would sweep over the northern edge of Haiti and the Island of Cuba causing additional destruction on a grand scale, compounding the misery caused by TS Fay, Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Hannah during the last 19 days.

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Brown
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 at  03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale [Category 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale.] Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours.
• Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 59.5 West or about 760 km north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1,215 km east-northeast of Grand Turk island.
• Direction: Ike is moving in a westerly direction. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  On this track the hurricane will continue to move over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours.
• Speed: About 22 km/hr.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).

TS Josephine

Coming soon …

Hungry Haitian Flood Victims Stranded on Rooftops

“There is no food, no water, no clothes … I want to know what I’m supposed to do … we haven’t found anything to eat in two, three days. Nothing at all.” Pastor Arnaud Dumas

TS Hannah the third tropical storm to strike Haiti in three weeks has left the northern Haitian city of Gonaives submerged in two meters of water. According to AP’s latest report there are 137 confirmed deaths in Haiti.

Hurricane Hanna is seen southeast of Nassau. The system was drifting toward the west near 3 km/hr with maximum sustained winds of about 130km/hr. Dated 2008.09.02 at 08:45UTC – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

Haitian President Rene Preval declared the situation in his impoverished Caribbean nation a “catastrophe.”

Thousands of people including patients in a flooded hospital have moved to upper floor rooms, balconies and roofs, waiting for the floodwater to recede.

“There are a lot of people who have been on top of the roofs of their homes over 24 hours now … They have no water, no food and we can’t even help them.” The interior minister, Paul Antoine Bien-Aime, told Reuters news.

An aerial view of floods caused by Tropical Storm Hanna is seen in Gonaives September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Marco Dormino/Minustah/Handout

In Cuba more than 500 schools and 100,000 homes were affected. “There are severe damages to the electrical system. It’s practically on the floor,” said the vice- president, Carlos Lage. “In terms of buildings and homes, roofs are generally gone. The island is exposed to the sky.” Thousands of tons of tobacco leaves, coffee, grapefruit and other produce have been destroyed.

A Bolivian peacekeeper, left, stands on an area flooded by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hanna next to residents in Savan Desole, Haiti, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2008. The storm has spawned flooding in Haiti that left 10 people dead in Gonaives, along Haiti’s western coast, according to the country’s civil protection department.(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos). Image may be subject to copyright.

Fidel Castro, Cuba’s ex-president likened the destruction to the nuclear attack on Hiroshima. “The photos and videos transmitted on national television reminded me of the desolation I saw when I visited Hiroshima.”

Hurricane Ike in a satellite image taken September 4, 2008. Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into an fiercely dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday.   REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Meanwhile, hurricane Ike, a very dangerous category 4B hurricane with sustained winds of about 230 km/hr is revving up about 1,000 km northeast of Haiti. Ike is expected to turn west in the next 24 hours.

Related Links:

• Remember this Image!

::

Ike Becomes the Third Major Hurricane in 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

With sustained winds of 185 km/hr Ike strengthens to a Category 3A Hurricane

GOES Floater – Tropical Imagery – Water Vapor Image – Date and Time: Updated. Credit NOAA/SSD

FEWW Comment: Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. Ike has been strengthening steadily, but rapidly. There are no obvious reasons yet why Ike might change its nascent characteristics. While there’s still a long way to go to forecast the possible impact of Ike on any specific land areas, Ike could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season yet.

Hurricane Ike’s Latest Update

Source: NHC
Forecaster: Brown/Blake
Date: Sep 4, 2008
Time: 00:01UTC
Location: The eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.7 north, longitude 53.2 west or about 1,035 km east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest . This general motion is expected to continue tonight and early Thursday. By Thursday night early Friday a turn to the west is expected taking Ike over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours. It is too early to determine what if any land areas might eventually be affected by Ike.
Speed: About 30 km/hr (unchanged from previous report).
Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds are about 185 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, or a category 3A on the FEWW hurricane scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 48 hours.
Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 960mb (28.35 inches)

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone [NHC/NWS/NOAA]

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time.

“We thought that it was Jesus who had come back”

Folks, it ain’t Jesus; it’s Human-induced climate change. Ask your local teacher to tell you about the effects of GHG Emissions!

The ferocious storm in Busara, about 260 km northwest of the capital, Nairobi, turned parts of central Kenya white with a massive hailstorm.

Villagers play with snow after heavy hailstorms hit a deforested hillside in Gikingi Village in Nyahururu town, some 220km from Nairobi, September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Antony Njuguna. Image may be subject to copyright.

“We thought a big white sheet had been spread, so we decided to come and see for ourselves. We thought that it was Jesus who had come back,” a villager said.

“The hailstones falling on the ground joined together to form expansive sheets of ice or snow flakes occupying a large area, 30 acres,” meteorologists said. the storm was caused “the convergence of cold air currents from the Indian Ocean and warm air currents from the Congo.”

“In fact this thing is very sweet, we have never seen anything like this. We like the ice so much because with the sun being hot, you take it and you feel satisfied,” another villager said.

Kenya straddles the equator. “The only snow to be seen in normally sunny Kenya is on top of the country’s highest mountain, 5,199-meter (17,057 ft) Mount Kenya.” Reuters said.

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• Stop Burning the earth

• Energy
  
• Failing Ecosystems

• World Problems:The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

• Future Scenarios
• Nuking Earth for Lifestyle

• Giga Trends
• The Economy

• A 2009 Forecast
• World CO2 Emissions

• How Much Carbon Dioxide Does Your Money Make?
• The Billionaires’ contribution to CO2 pollution

Canada’s Ice Shelves Lose Quarter of their Cover

Canada’s Ice Shelves Disappearing Much Faster than Previously Thought

The Markham Ice Shelf break-up animated using cloud-free MODIS images. The animation shows an area that is approximately 40 km wide. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Animation courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

[Kudos to Derek Mueller for his plain, yet revealing animations. See  below also for Serson Ice Shelf break-up and Ward Hunt Ice Shelf break-up animations.]

.
Markham Ice Shelf, a massive 50 square km ice shelf, almost the land size of Manhattan Island, in Canada’s northern Arctic broke away in August. The remaining shelves are shrinking at a “massive and disturbing” rate, as a result of of accelerating climate change, scientists reported.

The Markham Ice Shelf, one of just five remaining ice shelves in the Canadian Arctic, calved from Ellesmere Island in early August. Additionally, two other large chunks measuring a total of about 122 square km calved from Serson Ice Shelf, reducing its size by nearly two-thirds.

Chunk of ice are drifting away after calving from the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf off the north coast of Ellesmere Island in Canada’s far north. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The changes … were massive and disturbing,” said Warwick Vincent, at Laval University in Quebec.

Vincent’s team have recorded peak temperatures of about  20 degrees Celsius (°C), some 12 degrees (250%) higher than the average of about 8°C. The team’s estimate that the shelves would lose 22 square km of ice this summer proved to be highly optimistic. The actual figure was closer to 220 square km—ten times higher than their estimate.

Before

A MODIS image of the Markham Ice Shelf (2006 extent outlined in red) on July 28, 2008 prior to calving. Note the open water in Markham Fiord south of the ice shelf. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Map courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

After

A MODIS image of Markham Fiord on August 12, 2008 following the loss of the Markham Ice Shelf (2006 extent outlined in red). MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Map courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

The Serson Ice Shelf break-up animated using cloud-free MODIS images. The animation shows an area that is approximately 80 km wide. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Animation courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

Scientists believe that global warming is increasing the temperatures in the Arctic far faster than the global average in the last 30 years.

“These substantial calving events underscore the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic,” said Derek Mueller, a specialist at Trent University in Ontario.

Markham Fiord in August 2008 after the Markham Ice Shelf broke away. Compare with the photograph above. Photo courtesy of Denis Sarrazin, Laval University.

“These changes are irreversible under the present climate and indicate that the environmental conditions that have kept these ice shelves in balance for thousands of years are no longer present,” he said.

The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf break-up animated using cloud-free MODIS images. The animation shows an area that is approximately 75 km wide. NB: The events displayed here were already widely reported at the end of July. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Animation courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.
According to Mueller a totl of about 215 square km of ice was lost from the shelves along Ellesmere Island this summer.

“Reduced sea ice conditions and unusually high air temperatures have facilitated the ice shelf losses,” said Luke Copland of the University of Ottawa.

“Extensive new cracks across remaining parts of the largest remaining ice shelf, the Ward Hunt, mean that it will continue to disintegrate in the coming years,” he said.

Calving of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf into Disraeli Fiord during August 2008. Photo courtesy of Denis Sarrazin, ArcticNet/Centre d’Etudes Nordiques.

Ellesmere Island previously home to a single giant ice shelf measuring about 10,000 square km, now has four very small shelves covering only about 800 square km—less than a tenth of the original size!

Related News Links:

• Trent’s Polar Expert Reports Massive Ice Shelf Loss During Summer of 2008

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• It’s All About Big Oil, Stupid!

• Arctic ice cover second-lowest on record
• 3 million acres of spruce killed in Alaska in 15 years
• Hilarious Polar Bear News!
• The Billionaires’ contribution to CO2 pollution

• How Much Carbon Dioxide Does Your Money Make?
• Look me straight in the eye & tell me you can’t …
• Arctic ice cover second-lowest on record
• The real games are in Alaska

• Death by Lethal Pollution
• Bering Sea Drilling Revisited!
• Arctic Marine Mammals on Thin Ice
• Our Oceans Are Dying

• World CO2 Emissions
• Oh, PLEEZE, NOT THE ARCTIC OCEAN
• Is 350 ppm Safe? Hell, NO!
• A Few Extreme Events Away
• Drunken Forest: The Big Arctic Thaw
• Don’t Worry, it’s Only Earth
• Arctic Melting FAST!
• Freshening of deep Antarctic water could prove catasterophic
  

• Greenland Ice Melt Faster Than IPCC Estimates
• 350 or 450 ppm? Neither, Actually!
• Greenland Ice Melt Faster Than IPCC Estimates

• Only Zero Emissions Would Avert Dangerous Warming
• Stern Report: “a great toxic dump of doublespeak in truly Orwellian fashion”
• UN Hypocrisy: Kick the CO2 Habit!
• The myth of keeping CO2 under 450ppm

::

TSs Hannah, Ike and Josephine

Latest: Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Photos and Videos

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

.

Messy Hannah looks like a big baby left alone with a bowl of milk chocolate mix on the kitchen table!

Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

L to R: Gustav (the ‘Fake Hurricane’), TS Hannah, TS Ike, TS Josephine    (Still Image)  – NOAA

Tropical Atlantic Imagery – GOES East  – RGB Image – (Updated) – NOAA/SSD

Brief Update:

Gustav (The ‘Ghost Hurricane’)

GUSTAV is now a tropical depression located [Sep 2 at 21:00 UTC] near latitude 33.0 north, longitude 93.9 west, or about 56 km north of Shreveport Louisiana moving slowly into the ArkLaTex region.

Storm total rainfalls are expected to be five to ten inches with isolated maximum of fifteen inches over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.  Four to six inches with a maximum of eight inches is expected over portions of Missouri and west central to northern Illinois.  Two to four inches of rain is
possible over far eastern Oklahoma. – Forecaster Petersen, NHC

TS Hannah

Tropical Storm Hanna is seen southeast of Florida in this satellite image on September 2, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Maximum sustained winds: 105 km/h

Sep 3 – 03:00 UTC – The center of TS Hanna was located near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 72.4 west or 105 km southeast of Great Inagua Island  and about 720 km southeast of Nassau.

[Great Inagua is the third largest island in the Bahamas at 1550 km² located about 92 km northwest of eastern tip of Cuba.]

Hanna has been almost stationary in  the past few hours. However, a north or northwestward motion is expected to begin early on Wednesday followed by a northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, Hanna will be moving across the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and near or over the central Bahamas Wednesday and Wednesday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. – Forecaster: Brown/Avila

The Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic have experienced substantial downpours.

In Haiti, at least 25 people were killed by severe flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains inundated the northern port city of Gonaives.

“The city is flooded and there are parts where the water gets to 2 meters,” said an official. “A lot of people have been climbing onto the tops of their houses since last night to escape the flooding.”

Reuters report: Storms swirl in Atlantic, deadly floods hit Haiti

TS Ike

Date: Sep 3, 2008
Time: 09:00UTC
Location: TS Ike was located by NHC near latitude 20.6 north, longitude 49.6 west or about 1340 km east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Direction: Ike is moving west-northwestward and a gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next 48 hours
Speed: About 30 km/hr and
Wind Speed: Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 100 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is forecast to
Become a hurricane later today, and continue to strengthen over the next 48 hours.
Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 996mb (29.41 inches)

TS Josephine

Date: Sep 3, 2008
Time: 09:00UTC
Location: The center of tropical storm Josephine was located by NHC near latitude 13.7 north, longitude 27.5 west or about 355 km west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Direction: Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest and is expected to continue in that direction for the next 48 hours.
Speed: About 20 km/hr
Wind Speed: Sustained winds are about 95 km/hr with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours.
Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inches)
More updates will follow …

If Hannah manages to organize herself, the conditions are conducive to a major hurricane, at least a Category 4A hurricane, according to FEWW model.

FEWW New Hurricane Scale

FEWW New Hurricane Scale Makes Hurricane Classification More Meaningful!

FEWW’s New Hurricane Scale is based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and provides a more detailed definition of hurricane forces.

Size Description

To make the classification of tropical cyclones even more descriptive, FIRE-EARTH recommends the addition of following suffixes for storm size to denote the category:

• Midget hurricanes (m). With the average radius from the storm’s center of circulation to its outermost closed isobar (ROCI) in four quadrants measuring less than two degrees of latitude [222.2 km or 138.1 miles.]

• Small/Tiny Hurricanes (t).  ROCI measuring between 2 and 3 degrees of latitude [222km< ROCI< 333km]
• Average Hurricanes (g). ROCI measuring between 3 and 6 degrees of latitude [333km< ROCI< 667km]
• Large Hurricanes (f). ROCI of between 3 and 6 degrees of latitude [667km< ROCI< 889km]
• Very Large Hurricanes (x). ROCI of larger than 8 degrees of latitude [ROCI> 889km]

Example: Hurricane GRETA, with ROCI of 960km, the largest ever recorded Atlantic hurricane, which reached a maximum sustained winds of about 225km/h on November 5, 1956 may be represented as a 4Ax category hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale.

Gustav spares New Orleans levees

Insured losses could still reach $10 billion

Hurricane Gustav slammed ashore near Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 115 km southwest of New Orleans on Monday.

Gustav weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 177 kph winds [just 1kph shy of a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale] before landfall and as it moved inland weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 130 kph winds.

A street at a railroad crossing near the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal is flooded as Hurricane Gustav hits New Orleans, September 1, 2008. REUTERS/Lee Celano. Image may be subject to copyright.

Weaker than Katerina on landfall, Gustav spared the levees which were breached by Katrina in 2005 flooding the city killing about 1800 and stranding hundreds of thousands of people.

About six inches of water flooded streets around New Orleans Industrial Canal, and strong winds knocked down trees, but no substantial damage has yet been reported.

In case you wondered what Gustav looked liked! -  Clouds looming over New Orleans looked like a scene right out of “Independence Day.” (Stephen Morton/Getty Images). Image may be subject to copyright.

It is  estimated that Gustav’s insured losses could reach $10 billion. Katrina’s insured losses were reported at about $40 billion and total damage was more than $81.2 billion [2005 dollars.]

Gustav seemed to have caused more damage in the Caribbeans while near full strength. It killed a total of about 100 people in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. According to Cuban authorities more than 90,000 houses were damaged or destroyed by Gustav. Reuters reported.

As Gustav swept inland over the United States, tropical storm Hanna strengthened to a hurricane near the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Ike formed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Click here for Gustav’s latest image.

Gustav and Hannah: A picture’s worth …

Latest: Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

Gustav Chased by ‘Rapid Fire!’

Composite (‘realtime’) Image developed by Rick Kohrs at the Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin, using McIDAS.

Eastern Conus Sector (Infrared Channel) – NOAA – [Note: For IR data, the highest pixel values correspond to the coldest temperatures.] – Still Image.

Rapid Fire: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook – NOAA/NHC/NWS – Still Image – Date/Time: See Inset

Image of the Day: While You Were Away …

NO: A Ghost Town

A copy of The Times-Picayune is displayed on a deserted downtown street after the evacuation of New Orleans, prior to the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, August 31, 2008. REUTERS/ Mark Wallheiser. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• Ghost towns
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

Another Deadly Earthquake Cluster Hits China

China quake damages more than 100,000 homes, 25 dead

Revised figures in brackets are from a more recent report by AP.

BEIJING, Aug 31 (Reuters) – An earthquake that hit southwest China’s Sichuan and Yunnan provinces has killed [32] people [another 467 people injured], damaged or destroyed more than 258,000 homes and affected at least 600,000 residents [about 152,000 were evacuated,] state media said on Sunday.

Li Fucui, 47, cries in front of the debris of her collapsed house, which buried her brother-in-law, in Huili County, Sichuan Province. (Image: Reuters). Image may be subject to copyright.

The epicenter of Saturday’s quake, which struck around 4:30 p.m. (0730 GMT), was about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Panzhihua, near Sichuan’s border with Yunnan, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The quake was about 6 miles (10 km) deep.

The USGS put the magnitude of the quake at 5.7, while China’s official Xinhua news agency said it measured 6.1.

A 5.6-magnitude aftershock hit the same area 24 hours later, the USGS said on Sunday. There were no immediate reports of further damage.

Xinhua said Saturday’s quake had injured more than 250 people, and three more were missing.

It added that 656 schools had also been damaged and that heavy rain and difficult terrain were hampering rescue efforts, with mobile telephone communications patchy.

State television showed pictures of houses with large cracks in their sides, broken tiles on the road and people receiving medical attention under tents.

The government was rushing disaster relief to the affected areas, including thousands of tents and blankets and tonnes of food and water, Xinhua said.

Parts of Sichuan province were devastated by an earthquake that killed about 70,000 people in May. The province, known for its pandas and fiery cuisine, has struggled to rebuild after the disaster, which left 10 million people homeless. (Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex Richardson)

China should prepare for another massive earthquake in the Sichuan and Yunnan border area this winter!

Latest From TAAL and other Philippines Volcanoes

As per FEWW Forecast, Taal Volcano has begun seismic unrest significantly increasing the probability of  explosive eruptions

Taal Volcano Advisory

From: Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology

28 August 2008 -  4:00 P.M.

This is to notify the public and concerned authorities on the ongoing seismic unrest at Taal Volcano.

The Taal seismic network recorded ten (10) volcanic earthquakes from 5:30 A.M. to 3:00 P.M. today. Two (2) of these quakes that occurred at 12:33 and 12:46 P.M. were both felt at intensity II by residents at barangay Pira-piraso. These quakes were accompanied by rumbling sounds. The events were located northeast of the volcano island near Daang Kastila area with depths of approximately 0.6km (12:33 P.M.) and 0.8km (12:46 P.M.)

Taal Volcano Seen through Lake Taal (Photo: Jhun Taboga)

A cinder cone in an acidic lake on Taal Volcano (Credit: JG Moore of the US Geological Survey)

Surface thermal observations however, did not indicate significant change in the thermal and steam manifestations of the Main Crater Lake area.

The increase in seismicity at Taal Volcano reflects a low-level episode of unrest. Alert Level 1 remains in effect over Taal Volcano. At present, no imminent eruption is indicated although the public is advised to observe some precautions. In this regard, PHIVOLCS reminds the general public that the Main Crater area is off-limits because steam explosions may suddenly occur. Other hazards within the Main Crater may be the build up of toxic gases in case of more pronounced volcanic reactivation. The northern portion of the Main Crater rim, in the vicinity of Daang Kastila Trail, may also be hazardous, when reactivated with steam emission and increased thermal activity. Furthermore, the public is reminded that Taal Volcano Island is a high-risk area and permanent danger zone, hence, habitation is strictly not recommended.

Related Links:

• Philippines Taal Volcano Could Erupt Anytime!

Mayon Volcano Advisory

August 10, 2008 – 12:00 P.M.

At 9:12 A.M. today, Mayon Volcano manifested mild ash explosion that reached an approximate height of 200 m above the summit crater before drifting east-northeast. The ash-ejection was recorded as explosion-type earthquake which lasted for one minute by the seismic network deployed around the volcano.Immediately after the explosion, visual observation becomes hampered by the thick clouds. During the past weeks, seismic activity had slightly increased and crater glow had slightly intensified. Precise leveling surveys conducted at Mayon from May 10 – 22, 2008 compared to February 17 – March 2, 2008 survey also showed inflation of the volcanic edifice.

The above observations show that Mayon Volcano is undergoing an episode of increased activity probably related to magma movement and post eruptive behavior of the volcano. Although no major eruption is indicated, steam and ash explosions may occur in the following days.

In view of the above, PHIVOLCS reiterates that Mayon Volcano’s status remains at Alert Level 1. The public, however, is reminded that the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) at the southeastern flank of the volcano and the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) at other areas remain off-limits due to the continuing threat from sudden small explosions and rockfalls from the upper slopes. Active river channels and those areas perennially identified as lahar-prone around the volcano should be avoided when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS is keeping a tight watch over Mayon and shall immediately report any significant development to all concerned.

Related Links:

• Mayon Volcano Ejects Ash

Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

As forecast by FEWW model, Gustav has now strengthened to an extremely dangerous category four hurricane

The National Hurricane Center in Miami confirmed a few minutes ago that Gustav now has maximum winds approaching 230 km/hr which makes him an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The following excerpt is from their advisory update:

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
13:20 EDT Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds near 230 km/hr (145 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  A special advisory will be issued at about 14:00 EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time. —Forecaster Knabb

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – Floater (updated image) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – (still image saved for comparison Aug 30, 2008 22:15 UTC) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Gustav’s current characteristics including his rapid ability to strengthen, his temperament and projected path, suggest that he could cause substantial damage to structures, especially to the 3,900 or so offshore oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav could bring up to 10 meter storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast. According to the Census Bureau estimate, as many as 12 million U.S. residents may experience Gustav’s impact.

The storm has already left a trail of destruction and some 90 people dead in its wake as it swept across the Caribbeans over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. The storm’s human cost in Cayman Islands and Cuba may exceed the standing death toll.

What about Hannah?

TS Hannah (C) Chasing Hurricane Gustv (L) - GOES Caribbean Imagery – (Still Image) – August 30, 2008 - Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

According to NHC TS Hannah advisory No. 11, at 21:00UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 67.2 west or about 415 km east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. The center of Hanna is forecast to move near or just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands late Sunday or Monday.

Hannah has maximum sustained winds of near 85 km/hr, with higher gusts.  Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hrs. Minimum central pressure:1000mb.

Hannah seems to have the potential to “pack a big punch!”

Breaking News: Gustav Now Category Three Hurricane

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Gustav Strengthened to a Dangerous Category Three Hurricane

As of a Few minutes ago Gustav strengthened to a dangerous category three hurricane, National Hurricane Center reported.

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
06:00 EDT (02:00 UTC) Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav continues to rapidly strengthen and now has maximum winds near 185 km/hr (115 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale, the second major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.  Forecaster Blake/Avila

Hurricane Gustav - Category 3 – GOES (still satellite image printed for comparison) Rainbow Color Enhancement IR CH 4. Credit: NOAA – NHC

GEOS Floater (updated) Rainbow Color Enhancement IR CH 4. Credit: NOAA – NHC

Based on the FEWW model, Moderators believe there’s a very strong probability that Gustav, as he gets closer to the Isle of Youth, could strengthen to a category four hurricane within the next 12 hours before making landfall in the west-southwestern Cuba. There’s a medium to strong probability that Gustav could remain a category four hurricane as it leaves Cuba and strengthen to a giant category five hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, after it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Watch this space!

For additional images see:

• Hurricane Gustav [VII]
• Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters
• TS Gustav Latest Update
• TSs Hannah and Gustav
• Hurricane Gustav Strengthens to Category TWO

Hurricane Gustav Strengthens to Category TWO

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Hurricane GUSTAV Update

02:10 EDT Saturday August 30, 2008

The national Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has just reporetd that Gustav is continuing to strengthen and now has maximum winds of about 155 km/hr (100 mph) with higher gusts, which makes  Gustav a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

GOES – Still Satellite Image – Funktop enhancement- Infrared CH 4 Aug 30, 08 06:15 UTC

Hurricane Gustav – Category Two – GOES – Floater (Updated) – Funktop enhancement- Infrared CH 4 – Credit: NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery.

Heavy Rains Flood Central Japan

Heavy rains wreak havoc in central Japan

About 1.5 million people from 500,000 households in Aichi prefecture, central Japan, were ordered to evacuate as heavy rains flooded central Japan Friday, Kyodo News agency reported.

The evacuation orders were later lifted as rain abated; however, the officials warned about more rains in the area.

Cars travel down a flooded street between fields in Okazaki, 230 km (143 miles) west of Tokyo, August 29, 2008. (Credit: Reuters). Image may be subject to copyright.

“While the evacuation order was lifted, we urged residents to be cautious as we expect heavy rains tonight,” said a police official in the city of Okazaki, about 230 kilometers southwest of Tokyo.

“While the evacuation order was lifted, we urged residents to be cautious as we expect heavy rains tonight,” said Naoyuki Kato, a police official in the hardest-hit city of Okazaki, 140 miles (230 kilometers) southwest of Tokyo.

Okazaki, the worst affected city in the area, experienced a recors  downpour of about 15 centimeters per hour, Japan’s Meteorological Agency said.

A 76 year-old woman was drowned in her home, a man was in serious condition, and three others were missing in Okazaki.

Homes are seen flooded after heavy rain in Okazaki, 230 km west of Tokyo August 29, 2008. REUTERS/Kyodo. Image may be subject to copyright.

Other highlights from Asahi Shimbun report:

• The Tokai and Kanto regions were worst affected by the downpours from Thursday through Friday.

• Heavy rain caused floods and landslides across wide areas. A mudslide in Hachioji, western Tokyo, derailed a Keio Takao Line train late Thursday.

• In the 24 hours to 8:50 a.m. Friday, the rainfall had reached 302.5 millimeters.

• As of 6 p.m. Friday, a total of 829 houses in 12 prefectures, including 687 in Aichi, were flooded above floor level.

• In addition, 2,493 houses in 17 prefectures were flooded below floor level.

• In the Kanto region, heavy rain damaged points at Takao Station late Thursday, cancelling 195 train runs and affecting 130,000 people.

• On Thursday night, a Keio Takao Line train was derailed by a mudslide on the tracks.

• Thunderstorms caused power outages to 20,000 households in Tokyo as well as in Kanagawa, Tochigi and Ibaraki prefectures on Friday morning.

• Water levels were critical at six rivers in the Tokai and Kanto regions.

• Sporadic torrential rain could fall again because continued atmospheric instability was expected.

Japanese firefighters search for a missing 80-year-old woman at the Iga river near her damaged house in Okazaki, Aichi prefecture, on August 29.  (AFP/Jiji Press). Image may be subject to copyright.

Related links:

• Workers washed away by sewage inside Tokyo manhole