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Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for the ‘Global SST anomalies’ Category

SST Hit Highest Level in 150 Years on Northeast Continental Shelf

Posted by feww on April 29, 2013

SST for the NE Shelf Ecosystem jumped to record 14°C in 2012

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem during the second half of 2012 hit the highest level in 150 years, according to Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC).

“These high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are the latest in a trend of above average temperature seen during the spring and summer seasons, and part of a pattern of elevated temperatures occurring in the Northwest Atlantic, but not seen elsewhere in the ocean basin over the past century,” said the latest NEFSC advisory.

  • The temperature rise in 2012 was the highest temperature jump—more than 1°C—ever  observed in the time series.
  • Average SST was lower than 12.4°C (54.3°F) over the past three decades.
  • The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) extends from the Gulf of Maine to Cape Hatteras, N.C.

1nelme
The four subregions of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem, which extends from Cape Hatteras, N.C. to the Gulf of Maine. MAB is the Mid-Atlantic Bight, SNE is Southern New England, GB is Georges Bank, and GOM is the Gulf of Maine. Credit: NOAA

The warm water thermal habitat reached a record high during 2012, while cold water habitat dropped to a record low. “Early winter mixing of the water column went to extreme depths, which will impact the spring 2013 plankton bloom. Mixing redistributes nutrients and affects stratification of the water column as the bloom develops,” said the report.

Distributions of fish and shellfish on the Shelf is also affected by temperature. “The four southern species – black sea bass, summer flounder, longfin squid and butterfish – all showed a northeastward or upshelf shift. American lobster has shifted upshelf over time but at a slower rate than the southern species. Atlantic cod and haddock have shifted downshelf.”

“Changes in ocean temperatures and the timing and strength of spring and fall plankton blooms could affect the biological clocks of many marine species, which spawn at specific times of the year based on environmental cues like water temperature,” said a researcher in the NEFSC Ecosystem Assessment Program.

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Super Typhoon Headed Towards Taiwan, Okinawa

Posted by feww on September 25, 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,268 Days Left

[September 25, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,268 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

JELAWAT Intensifies to a Super Typhoon with 265kph Winds

Super Typhoon JELAWAT, described as “violent,” is currently packing maximum sustained winds of about 265 kilometer  per hour (kph), with wind gusts exceeding 325 kph, moving NNW in the Philippines Sea at forward speeds of about 12kph.

  • The Super Storm could top maximum sustained winds of 280kph in the next 12 hours, according to models.


SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT  – Vis/IR Sat Image.  Source: CIMSS

Other Disasters, Significant Events

  • California, USA. A wildfire 50 miles east of San Diego has destroyed at least 3 dozen buildings including 20 houses, threatening more homes and forcing hundreds of residents to evacuate.
    • At least a dozen other homes have reportedly been damaged by the fire.
    • The 3,000-acre blaze may have started in Mexico, officials said.
  • Philippines Sea. Typhoon EWINIAR (TY 19W), currently positioned NNW of Mariana Islands, is heading north towards Tokyo, Japan with sustained winds of about 75kph.

Global

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

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U.S. Climate: Warmest YTD on Record

Posted by feww on September 11, 2012

Drought-related stress affecting 80% of U.S. corn and soybeans, causing crops failure

The January-August 2012 was the warmest first 8 months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 58.7°F (14.3°C) was 4.0°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above the previous record warm in 2006, NOAA said.

  • Summer 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer on record for the contiguous United States since recordkeeping began 117 years ago. [ 2011 and 1936 had higher summer temperatures for the Lower 48.]

Temperature Anomalies, June – August  2012


Reds show June-August temperatures up to 8° F warmer than average. Blues show temperatures up to 2° F cooler than average—the darker the color, the larger the difference. Source: NOAA climate.gov

  • During the period, 33 states had record warm and an additional 12 states experienced top ten warm.
  • The average temperature for the Lower 48 between June and August was higher than 74°F (24.3°C), which is more than 2° F above the 20th century average.
  • “The average global temperature across land and oceans during July 2012 was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F) and ranked as the fourth warmest July since records began in 1880. The previous three months—April, May, and June—also ranked among the top five warmest for their respective months. July 2012 marks the 36th consecutive July and 329th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.” NOAA reported.

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Anthropogenic Global Warming, global climate, global climate change, Global Climate Extremes, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, global heating, global Precipitation, global precipitation patterns, Global SST anomalies, Global Temperature, global Temperature Anomalies, global temperatures | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing

Posted by feww on August 21, 2012

Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent drops below 4.5 million km²: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH estimates the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent dropped below 4.5 million km² on August 19, 2012.

A week earlier (August 13, 2012), the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was 5.09 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles), which was 2.69 million km² below the 1979 to 2000 average extent for the date, and 483,000 km² below the previous record low set in 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 3.8 million km² during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.7 [P≥65%]

Arctic ice cover shrank to a new record low of 4.28 km² in 2007, about 23 percent below the previous record set in 2005 and almost 40 percent lower than the 1979 – 2000 average.


Arctic Ice Cover Maps for August 13 and 19, 2012. Source: NSIDC


Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice. Source: NSIDC


The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of August 13, 2012, along with daily ice extent data for the previous five years. 2012 is shown in blue, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, 2008 in purple, and 2007 in green. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Source: NSIDC

“The average pace of ice loss since late June has been rapid at just over 100,000 square kilometers (38,000 square miles) per day. However, this pace nearly doubled for a few days in early August during a major Arctic cyclonic storm,” said NSIDC.

Related Links

Drought – Recent Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, global ghg emissions, Global SST anomalies, global Temperature Anomalies, global temperatures | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Drought Continues to Plague Two-Thirds of Continental U.S.

Posted by feww on July 17, 2012

Serious drought conditions continue to creep across nearly two-thirds of the lower 48 states: USDA 

Farmers and ranchers across most of the U.S. have been affected by a string of extreme weather in 2012, as serious drought conditions in the Midwest expands north and west, further worsening the crop conditions and putting even more crops at risk, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.

“Hot, dry and drought conditions across states from California to Delaware have damaged some crops and slowed development of others.” USDA said in a news release, as the agency’s senior officials prepared to tour “Michigan, Ohio and Indiana—three states affected by severe frost and freezes in the spring, with Indiana now experiencing increasing levels of drought. In the weeks ahead, additional USDA subcabinet leaders will travel to Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and others.”

From a Crisis to a Horror Story

“We’re moving from a crisis to a horror story,” said a Purdue University Professor of Agronomy. “I see an increasing number of fields that will produce zero grain.”

Precipitation

Two-thirds of the Continental U.S. has received less than 1 inch of rain in the last 7 days. See below for 7-day and 90-day total precipitation maps.


Precipitation Map for continental U.S. (7-day total). Source: HPRCC


Precipitation Map for continental U.S. (90-day total). Source: HPRCC

Palmer Drought Index

Based on the Palmer Drought Index, 55 percent of Continental U.S. was under moderate to extreme drought conditions in June, NOAA reported.

Topsoil Moisture Map


U.S. Topsoil Moisture as of July 15, 2012

Corn Crop Condition

Corn conditions have further worsened since last week. The amount of corn rated as FAIR to EXCELLENT conditions have plummeted from 89 percent last year to only 62 percent.

Soybean Condition

Soybean conditions too have further worsened since last week.  The amount of soybean rated as FAIR to EXCELLENT conditions have plummeted from 90 percent last year to only 70 percent.

Livestock, Pasture and Range Report

Pasture and range conditions: 24 percent very poor, 30 poor, 28 fair, 16 good, and 2 excellent. The rating was well below 68 percent fair to excellent last year.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (July 5 to September 30, 2012)

Map of Agricultural Disaster Areas in the U.S.

Map of U.S. counties declared as agricultural disaster areas under ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process,’ as of July 12, 2012


PRIMARY & CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES designated for 2012 crop disaster losses – As of 07/10/2012 – through Designation No. S3260 (Approved 07/03/2012)

Drought conditions have sparked disaster declarations in about 1,300 counties (1,016 primary, 278 contiguous) across the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.

  • U.S. drought has been intensified by the driest June in history and triple-digit temperatures on 10 out of 11 days recently.
  • As of last week, Moderate to Extreme drought conditions prevailed in 52.56 percent of the Midwest, and 68.39 percent of the South. Moderate to Exceptional drought conditions covered 73.87% of High Plains, 64.15% of the West and 35.46% of the Southeast.
  • The declaration covers 26 states across the country: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming and Hawaii.

Worsening Drought Conditions

  • Missouri.  Worsening drought throughout Missouri has forced Gov. Nixon to ask the federal authorities for disaster declaration for all of the state’s 114 counties with the exception of independent city of St. Louis.
    • Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on Wednesday a ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process’ a USDA rule change for Secretarial disaster designations that will allow nearly automatically a county to be declared a disaster area once it is categorized by the U.S. Drought Monitor as a severe drought for eight consecutive weeks during the growing season.

Maps of U.S. Hazards Outlook


Map of U.S. Hazards Outlook for July 19 – 23, 2012, showing persistent severe drought.


Map of U.S. Hazards Outlook for July 20 – 26, 2012, showing persistent severe drought.


Map of U.S. Hazards Outlook to July 30, 2012, showing persistent severe drought.


U.S. Drought Comparison Maps for July 3 and July 10, 2012.


U.S. Drought Comparison Maps for June 26 and July 3, 2012


Current U.S. Drought Map – Released July 12, 2012.

Triple digit heat is coming back

Links to Recent Related Entries

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, Global Food Shortages, Global SST anomalies, global Temperature Anomalies, global temperatures, global water crisis | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Disaster Calendar – 22 June 2012

Posted by feww on June 22, 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,363 Days Left

[June 22, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,363 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in environment, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global drought, Global Food Crisis, global ghg emissions, global health catastrophe, Global SST anomalies, global Temperature Anomalies | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Disaster Calendar – 19 June 2012

Posted by feww on June 19, 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,366 Days Left

[June 19, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,366 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in global carbon cycle, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, Global Food Crisis, global ghg emissions, global health catastrophe, global heating, Global SST anomalies, global Temperature Anomalies | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Disaster Calendar – 20 May 2012

Posted by feww on May 20, 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,396 Days Left

[20 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,396 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, global earthquakes, Global Food Crisis, Global Food Shortages, global health catastrophe, Global Seismicity, Global SST anomalies | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Dozens Dead or Missing after Storm Batters NW China

Posted by feww on May 11, 2012

Deadly storm leaves a trail of destruction in Gansu province, NW China

Extreme Weather has left more than 60 people dead or missing in Minxian County in Gansu Province, affecting tens of thousands of people and forcing about 3,000 people to flee their homes.

The storm, which lasted only about an hour, left a trail of destruction in 17 of the county’s 18 towns and many villages, dumping up to 70mm of rain, reports said.

Torrential rains and hail caused flash floods unleashing torrents of mud which destroyed homes, farmland and infrastructure.


Villager stands next to the remains of his house destroyed by hail and torrential rains in Minxian County in northwest China’s Gansu Province, May 11, 2012. The death toll has climbed to 24 and 37 people remain missing after hail and torrential rains battered Minxian County in Gansu Province on Thursday, the local government said Friday. The natural disaster on Thursday has affected 36,000 people in Minxian County, forcing the area to be evacuated of 2,183 local residents. Roads were blocked, houses collapsed, and farmland was destroyed by the extreme weather, according to state and local disaster relief agencies. (Xinhua/Nie Jianjiang). More images …

Related Disasters

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, Global Food Crisis, global Precipitation, Global SST anomalies | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Drought and Deluge States of Emergency Declared in Brazil

Posted by feww on May 9, 2012

Brazilian Amazon plagued by worst floods ever; NE Brazil declares drought emergency

Part of the Brazilian Amazon is under a state of emergency due to worst floods ever, while Brazil’s northeastern region has declared a separate state of emergency in 266 district due to severe drought.

The drought has destroyed large swathes of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle, reports said.

The drought is expected to continue until October, and possibly beyond.


The carcass of a cow, which died due to the drought, is seen on the ground near Maracas in Bahia state, northeast Brazil May 5, 2012. While a swath of the Brazilian Amazon is under a state of emergency as rivers overflow in one of the worst floods ever, the country’s northeastern region faces its worst drought in the last 30 years, affecting well over 500 towns and cities, according to data from different government monitoring agencies.  Reuters/Ricardo Moraes. Image may be subject to copyright.


Cattle walk in the waters of an area flooded by the rising Rio Solimoes, one of the two main branches of the Amazon River, in Anama, 160 km (100 miles) west of Manaus, May 5, 2012. While a swath of the Brazilian Amazon is under a state of emergency as rivers overflow in one of the worst floods on record, the country’s northeastern region faces its worst drought in the last 30 years, affecting well over 500 towns and cities, according to data from different government monitoring agencies. Reuters/Bruno Kelly. The carcass of a cow, which died due to the drought, is seen on the ground near Maracas in Bahia state, northeast Brazil May 5, 2012. While a swath of the Brazilian Amazon is under a state of emergency as rivers overflow in one of the worst floods ever, the country’s northeastern region faces its worst drought in the last 30 years, affecting well over 500 towns and cities, according to data from different government monitoring agencies.  Reuters/Ricardo Moraes. Image may be subject to copyright.
More images…

Other Global Disasters, Significant Events

  • Hawaii. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated Maui and Kalawao counties in Hawaii as agricultural disaster areas due to losses caused by ongoing drought that began January 1, 2012, and continues.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in global delta flooding, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, Global Food Crisis, Global Food Shortages, global health catastrophe, Global SST anomalies, global temperatures, global water crisis | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Severe Floods Affect 100,000 in Kenya

Posted by feww on April 23, 2012

Kenya plagued by extreme rain events, storms and rising temperatures

Dozens of people have lost their lives, and at least 100,000 others have been affected by torrential rains, which have triggered widespread flooding, strong winds and rising temperatures across Kenya.

Floods have destroyed homes and infrastructure, washed away crops and drowned livestock. The worst hit areas include Nairobi, Coast and Nyanza provinces.

In Nyanza Province alone, thousands of families have lost their homes and livelihoods, reports said.

“Heavy rainfall events of between 20mm and 50mm a day occurred in various areas that include parts of North-eastern areas, vast areas of Western Kenya, parts of the Rift Valley, central Kenya and Nairobi. In some cases, these were accompanied with very strong winds and hailstones that caused damage to property,” according to a report by Kenya Meteorological Department.

“Heavy rainfall events leading to swelling of rivers and flash floods are expected to occur in various counties in Nyanza and Western Regions,” the report said.

Other Global Disasters, Significant Events

  • Balkh Province, Afghanistan. Heavy monsoon rains in Afghanistan’s Balkh province have caused severe flooding, leaving at least 15 people dead and destroying hundrdes of homes, reports said.
  • Mexico. Popocatépetl Volcano Update

The following is the latest report of activity at Popocatépetl volcano released by CENAPRED

Apr 23 at 12:00 local time (01:00 GMT)

Since the last report, 11 hours ago, Popocatépetl volcano has remained relatively calm, registering only 4 low intensity exhalations and very short segments of spasmodic tremor accompanied by steam, gas emissions and in some times by small amounts of ash, transported to the southeast.

Incandescence was seen 100 m over the crater rim throughout the night, which slightly increased during the occurrence of some of the exhalations.


Popocatépetl continues to eject a column of ash, steam and volcanic gasses to a height of about 200 m above the summit crater. The plume is being carried several kilometers away by strong southeasterly winds, CENAPRED said.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background


Posted in global change, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global Precipitation, global precipitation patterns, Global SST anomalies, global Temperature Anomalies, global temperatures | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

May Global Temperature Warmest on Record

Posted by feww on June 17, 2010

Spring and January-May also post record breaking temps: NOAA

June 2010 could also prove be the warmest on record, by a large margin: Fire Earth

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for May, March-May (Northern Hemisphere spring-Southern Hemisphere autumn), and the period January-May, NOAA reported. Worldwide average land surface temperature for May and March-May was the warmest on record while the global ocean surface temperatures for both May and March-May were second warmest on record, behind 1998.

Global Temp Highlights: May 2010

  • The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for May was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F).
  • Land surface temperature was the warmest on record, 1.04°C (1.87°F) higher than 20th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F).
  • Ocean temperature was the second warmest on record (after 1998) at 16.3°C (61.3°F), 0.99°F (0.55°C) above the 20th century average.
  • The warmest temperature anomalies occurred in eastern North America, eastern Brazil, Eastern Europe, southern Asia, eastern Russia, and equatorial Africa.
  • The Chinese province of Yunnan had its warmest May since 1951.
  • Many locations in Ontario, Canada had their warmest May on record.
  • Anomalously cool conditions were present across western North America, northern Argentina, interior Asia, and Western Europe. Germany had its coolest May since 1991 and its 12th coolest May on record.


Temperature anomalies May 2010. Source NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Global Highlights – March-May 2010

  • The combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for the March-May period was 14.4°C (58.0°F), the warmest such period on record, and 1.31°F (0.73°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F (13.7°C).
  • Global land surface temperature for March-May was the warmest on record at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 8.1°C (46.4 °F).
  • Global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest March-May on record (behind 1998) at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20th century average of 16.1°C (61.0°F).
  • The temperatures were very warm across eastern and northern North America, northern Africa, Eastern Europe, southern Asia, and parts of Australia.
  • Tasmania tied its warmest March-May period on record.
  • The Northeastern U.S. also had its warmest March-May period on record.
  • Conversely, cool temperatures enveloped the western U.S. and eastern Asia.
  • Western Europe was particularly dry for its spring season.
  • The United Kingdom experienced its driest spring in 26 years, and the 12th driest since 1910, when UK records began.


Temperature anomalies March-May 2010. Source NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Other Highlights

  • Arctic sea ice covered an average of 5.06 million square miles (13.1 million square kilometers) in May 2010, which was 3.7 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the ninth-smallest May footprint since records began in 1979.
  • Arctic sea ice melted 50 percent faster than the average May melting rate, the National Snow & Ice Data Center reported.
  • Antarctic sea ice extent in May was 7.3 percent above the 1979-2000 average, resulting in the fourth largest May extent on record.
  • Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during May 2010 was a record low at 4.3 million square kilometers below the long-term average. North America and Eurasia both had record-low snow extents for the month.
  • Northern Hemisphere March-May snow cover extent was fourth smallest on record.
  • The North American (including Greenland) snow cover extent for spring (March-May) 2010 was the smallest on record.

See also: May 2010 Global State of the Climate – Supplemental Figures and Information

Related Links:

Posted in Global SST anomalies, Global SST Departures, Global Temperature, global water crisis | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Weekly Update [7 Dec 2009]

Posted by feww on December 8, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  7 December 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies only changed in small regions across the equatorial Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • During October –November 2009, positive temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • The most recent period indicates the eastward expansion of positive anomalies has slowed in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
See:
El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

(A) The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with positive anomalies becoming established in late March.

(B) In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker-than-average easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.

Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average, but there has been considerable month-to-month variability due to Kelvin wave activity.

(C) During November, the downwellingphase of a Kelvin wave contributed to an increase in heat content.

Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warmp hase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s -1)
From April-October 2009, the MJO was weak to nonexistent. Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.During November 2009, the MJO became active, which contributed to anomalous easterlies shifting eastward from the Indian Ocean to the central and eastern Pacific. Recently, westerly anomalies have returned across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Pacific SST Outlook | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 22, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

trop OLr and wind anom -sml

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
  • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Update [5 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 6, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  5 Oct 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Highlights

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

SSTA - 5 october
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

WHCEEP 5-10-09

The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño conditions, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 15, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC


    El Niño Map.
    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    SST anom 14-sept-09

    Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last month, the change in equatorial SST

    Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
    Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

    Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

    EQ Upper-Ocean Heat anoms  -14sept09

    1. During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.

    2. The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.

    In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.

    Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.

    3. Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

      Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

      SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 September 2009
      El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

      Summary

      • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

      Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

      For additional information see following links.

      Relate Links:

      El Niño Updates

      Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

      El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]

      Posted by feww on September 1, 2009

      Special Issue with the EN Doubters in Mind!

      ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

      The following UPDATE is prepared by

      Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 31 August 2009

      The latest weekly SST departures are:

      • Niño 4   ~ 0.9ºC
      • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
      • Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
      • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC

      El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

      Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
      aug 31 sst anom

      Global SST Departures
      During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

      SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
      During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

      Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

      • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive.

      Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
      Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-averagefrom mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

      Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific

      • During early July through late August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, positive anomalies in the western Pacific have shifted eastward.
      • The most recent period (below) shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the central Pacific.

      Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

      • During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.
      • The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.
      • In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
      • Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.
      • Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

      Outgoing LongwaveRadiation (OLR) Anomalies
      From February 2007-May 2009, convection has been suppressed across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convection has occasionally been enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and central Indian Ocean. Since mid-May 2009, convection has remained mostly suppressed over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. During July 2009, convection was enhanced near the Date Line and over the western Pacific.

      Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

      • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
      • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.


      Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).

      Summary

      • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

      Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during El Niño Winters
      Typical Winter Pattern During El Nino
      All images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP/ NOAA.

      See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

      Related Links:

      El Niño Updates

      Posted in El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

      El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

      Posted by feww on August 18, 2009

      ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

      The following UPDATE is prepared by

      Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 17 August 2009

      The latest weekly SST departures are:

      • Niño 4   ~ 0.7ºC
      • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
      • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
      • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

      El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

      Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

      sst departures aug 17

      During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C [0.9°C] above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

      Summary:

      • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

      See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

      Related Links:

      El Niño Updates

      Posted in El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

      El Niño Update – 10 August 2009

      Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

      ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

      The following UPDATE is prepared by

      Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 10 August 2009

      The latest weekly SST departures are:

      • Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
      • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
      • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
      • Niño 1+2 ~ 1.0ºC

      El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

      Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

      SST departures Aug 2009

      During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

      Summary:

      • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
      • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

      See  El Niño Home Page

      Related Links:

      El Niño Updates

      El Niño, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, equatorial Pacific Ocean, , , , , .

      Posted in El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

      El Niño Update – 20 July 2009

      Posted by feww on July 21, 2009

      Summary

      • El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

      • Positive sea surface temperature (SST) departures continue to increase across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

      • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

      Global SST Departures (ºC)

      average SSr anomalies

      During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered much of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

      Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days

      atmo circ NP- NA - 60 days
      During late May and early June, below-average heights persisted over Canada contributing to below-average temperatures over central and eastern Canada. During early June through mid-July, an anomalous north-south dipole in height anomalies (below-average heights over the eastern U.S. and above-average heights over eastern Canada) contributed to near or below-average temperatures over portions of New England and across the Great Lakes and to above-average temperatures in eastern Canada. Credit: All diagrams and captions by NOAA.

      Related Links:


      Posted in Canada, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, New England, TAO Diagrams | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

       
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