Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for the ‘Global SST Departures’ Category

SST Hit Highest Level in 150 Years on Northeast Continental Shelf

Posted by feww on April 29, 2013

SST for the NE Shelf Ecosystem jumped to record 14°C in 2012

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem during the second half of 2012 hit the highest level in 150 years, according to Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC).

“These high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are the latest in a trend of above average temperature seen during the spring and summer seasons, and part of a pattern of elevated temperatures occurring in the Northwest Atlantic, but not seen elsewhere in the ocean basin over the past century,” said the latest NEFSC advisory.

  • The temperature rise in 2012 was the highest temperature jump—more than 1°C—ever  observed in the time series.
  • Average SST was lower than 12.4°C (54.3°F) over the past three decades.
  • The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) extends from the Gulf of Maine to Cape Hatteras, N.C.

1nelme
The four subregions of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem, which extends from Cape Hatteras, N.C. to the Gulf of Maine. MAB is the Mid-Atlantic Bight, SNE is Southern New England, GB is Georges Bank, and GOM is the Gulf of Maine. Credit: NOAA

The warm water thermal habitat reached a record high during 2012, while cold water habitat dropped to a record low. “Early winter mixing of the water column went to extreme depths, which will impact the spring 2013 plankton bloom. Mixing redistributes nutrients and affects stratification of the water column as the bloom develops,” said the report.

Distributions of fish and shellfish on the Shelf is also affected by temperature. “The four southern species – black sea bass, summer flounder, longfin squid and butterfish – all showed a northeastward or upshelf shift. American lobster has shifted upshelf over time but at a slower rate than the southern species. Atlantic cod and haddock have shifted downshelf.”

“Changes in ocean temperatures and the timing and strength of spring and fall plankton blooms could affect the biological clocks of many marine species, which spawn at specific times of the year based on environmental cues like water temperature,” said a researcher in the NEFSC Ecosystem Assessment Program.

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Global SST anomalies, Global SST Departures, Sea Surface Temp, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

State of Emergency Declared in New Mexico

Posted by feww on June 20, 2012

NM governor declares state of emergency due to flood potential from wildfires

Gov. Martinez has declared a State of Emergency throughout the State of New Mexico due to the enhanced flood potential caused by severe wildfires.

Wildland fires significantly reduce vegetation and soil absorption of monsoonal rains, especially in terrain that increases the risk of flooding, the governor’s office said in a statement.

“Already this year, we have seen two record-setting fires that have destroyed property and damaged terrain,” Governor Martinez said. “The burn scars left from last year and those from this year make flooding a very real possibility and we must make every effort to mitigate that threat in order to keep New Mexicans safe. This emergency declaration will make it easier for state officials to work with local authorities to employ measures that could reduce flood damage.”

The Whitewater-Baldy Fire in the Gila National Forest continues to burn and is the State’s largest recorded fire at 296,980, as of posting. The Little Bear Fire in Lincoln County has already consumed 39,458 acres and 254 structures—the largest number of structures destroyed by wildfire in New Mexico history.

Wildfires in 2011 consumed more than one million acres within NM, which makes even moderate rainfall in burned areas causing much greater than average runoff, the statement said.

Current Evacuations: All campgrounds west of Bonito Lake; Angus and Bonita Park.

Colorado

The High Park Fire in Arapaho & Roosevelt National Forests / Pawnee National Grassland has grown to about 60,000 acres, destroying at least 189 homes, USFS said.

The blaze has an EXTREME growth potential in HIGH terrain difficulty, with strong west winds combined with a very dry air mass resulting in critical fire weather conditions again today, USFS said.

Evacuation Information

Mandatory evacuation and re-evacuation orders have been issued for dozens of locations affecting thousands of residents.

The following information is provided by Inciweb

PRE-evacuation notifications sent to residents along Colorado Highway 14 from the Pingree Park Road at 9:30 a.m. this morning, west to Glen Echo (mile marker 90), and north on CR69 to Goodell Corner. The pre-evacuation notice was issued in response to a new spot fire north of Highway 14 along the northwest fire perimeter.

Mandatory re-evacuation orders were issued on 6/17 for the Soldier Canyon and Mill Canyon areas. This includes Lodgepole Drive and CR 23 west and south including Red Cedar Drive, and east to CR 23.

Mandatory evacuation orders were issued on 6/17 for residents in the Hewlett Gulch subdivision area. The area runs from the Glacier View 9-12 filings (already evacuated) east to the Hewlett Gulch Trail, north to CR 74E and south to HWY 14.

Cloudy Pass residents were allowed to return home as of noon 6/15 (no credentials required). Residents in the Poudre Canyon up to Gateway park area (east of Gateway) were also allowed to return on 6/15.

Thursday fire officials issued an evacuation order for the 9th, 10th and 11th filings of Glacier View, to include the area west from Eiger Road to Rams Horn Mountain Road and north from the Mount Blanc Guardian Peak area to the north end of Mount Everest Drive. Fire officials also ordered evacuations of 80 residences along Many Thunders Road and south into the 12th Filing of Glacier View. Roads included in this evacuation include Meadow Mountain Drive, Little Bald Mountain Court, Grey’s Peak Court, Diamond Peak Court, Little Twins Court, Red Mountain Court, Pingree Hill Court, Rabbit Ears Court, Bullrock Court and Black Mountain Court. The road block will be located at Eiger and Many Thunders Mountain Road. An additional roadblock is located at Green Mountain Drive at CR 74E.

CR 74E remains open and a pre-evacuation alert remains in effect for the rest of Glacier View subdivision (including the area north of CR 74E), and the area south of CR 74E between Hewlett Gulch Road to the east and CR 68C to the west and HWY 14 to the south.

Evacuated residents looking to evacuate animals must contact the humane society at 226-3647. Again, do not show up at road blocks to attempt to gain access to care for or evacuate animals.

Evacuation orders remain in place for the following areas:

-Pingree Park Road, Hourglass and Comanche reservoirs, east on Buckhorn Road up to and including Pennock Pass, NE to junction with Stove Prairie and Hwy 14; West to junction with Highway 15 and Pingree Park Road

-County Road 44H (Buckhorn Road) from County Road 27 to Pennock Pass and residents to the south approximately 3/4 – 1 mile.

-Areas south and west of Bellvue to include the Lory State Park area, the Redstone Canyon area and Buckhorn Road up to the Stove Prairie School.

-Poudre Canyon from MM111 to MM118 on Highway 14. This means Poudre Canyon from Stove Prairie to MM118 is under mandatory evacuations.

-The area between CR 27E and Stove Prairie Road and south through the entire Rist Canyon area including Davis Ranch Road, Whale Rock Road.

-South on County Road 44H 3 miles to just north of Stringtown Gulch Road, Paradise Park Road, Moose Horn Lane, Magic Lane and Spencer Mountain Road.

-Old Flowers Road from Stove Prairie Road to the 8000-block of Old Flowers Road.

-Stove Prairie Road north along County Road 27 to Highway 14, east along Highway 14 to approximately mile marker 111, southeast to Rist Canyon Fire Station 1, then back west to to include Wilderness Ridge Way, Rist Creek Road, Spring Valley Road and County Road 41 and all of the roads that run off of it.

- Otter Road off of CR 27 (not a new notice; additional listing for clarification).

-Hewlett Gulch, King’s Canyon area and Boyd Gulch Road.

-Satanka Cove

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, global ghg emissions, global health catastrophe, global heating, global precipitation patterns, Global SST Departures, global Temperature Anomalies | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record: NOAA

Posted by feww on January 13, 2011

2010 joint warmest and  wettest year on record

Last year tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record for global surface temperature

  • The 2010 global land surface temperature were 0.96ºC (1.73º F) above the 20th century average.
  • Global ocean surface temperatures in 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest at 0.49ºC (0.88ºF ) above the 20th century average.
  • 2010 was also the wettest year on record, compared to global average precipitation.

Highlights from NASA Climate Section:

  • September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average. The September 2010 extent was the third lowest in the satellite record.
  • As of December 10, 2010, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were 391 ppm.
  • Data from NASA’s Grace satellite show that the land ice sheets in both Anarctica and Greenland are losing mass. The continent of Antarctica (left chart) has been losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.
  • Sea levels have risen by 53mm since 1993, and by 100 to 200mm since the past century. Sea rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice.

“2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record,” NOAA researchers say.

The following is mirrored from NOAA website:

2010 Global Climate Highlights


Global surface temperature anomalies for 2010. Click image to enlarge.

  • Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*
  • The global land surface temperatures for 2010 were tied for the second warmest on record at 1.73 F (0.96 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (+/- 0.11 C).
  • Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F (0.49 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.11 F (+/- 0.06 C).
  • In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences global temperature and precipitation patterns — when a moderate-to-strong El Niño transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
  • According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
  • The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively.
  • The Arctic sea ice extent had a record long growing season, with the annual maximum occurring at the latest date, March 31, since records began in 1979. Despite the shorter-than-normal melting season, the Arctic still reached its third smallest annual sea ice minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The Antarctic sea ice extent reached its eighth smallest annual maximum extent in March, while in September, the Antarctic sea ice rapidly expanded to its third largest extent on record.
  • A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in January and February helped usher in very cold Arctic air to much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record cold and major snowstorms with heavy accumulations occurred across much of eastern North America, Europe and Asia. The February AO index reached -4.266, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950.
  • From mid-June to mid-August, an unusually strong jet stream shifted northward of western Russia while plunging southward into Pakistan. The jet stream remained locked in place for weeks, bringing an unprecedented two-month heat wave to Russia and contributing to devastating floods in Pakistan at the end of July.


2010 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map. Source: NOAA

Top 10 Climate Anomalies in 2010
1.    Russian – European – Asian Heat Waves     (Summer)
2.    2010 as [near] warmest year on record     (calendar year)
3.    Pakistani Flooding     (Late July – August)
4.    El Niño to La Niña Transition     (Mid-to-Late Boreal Spring)
5.    Negative Arctic Oscillation     (Early 2010 )
6.    Brazilian Drought     (Ongoing)
7-tie.     Historically Inactive NE Pacific Hurricane Season     (May 15 – Nov 30)
7-tie.     Historic N. Hemispheric Snow Retreat     (January – June )
9.    Minimum Sea Ice Extent     (mid-September)
10.    China Drought    (First Half of 2010)

Contenders for the Top 10 List

  • China Floods     (Early Aug)
  • Large Iceberg Breaks off Petermann Glacier    (5-Aug)
  • Igor & Julia Simultaneous Category 4 Hurricanes     (15-Sep)
  • Super Typhoon Megi     (Oct 12-24 )
  • Coral Reef Bleaching     (NH Spring -Summer)
  • Cyclone Phet     (Early June)
  • Bangladesh Driest Monsoon Season since 1994     (Warm Season)
  • Hurricane Celia     (Jun 19-28)
  • Summer Snow in Australia     (18-Jan)
  • Atlantic Cyclone Xynthia     (27-Feb)
  • European Cold Snap & Winter Storm     (Early Jan)
  • South American Cold Snap     (July)
  • Extreme Winter Weather in Europe**     (Most of December)
  • Australian Flooding**     (25-Dec)

** This event occurred after the top ten voting, but may have warranted top ten placement.


Click image to enlarge. (Source: NOAA)

See Also:

State of the Climate Global Hazards

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Hazards for November 2010, published online December 2010, retrieved on January 10, 2011 from http://www.noaa.gov.

Related Links:

Posted in Global Climate Extremes, global precipitation patterns, Global SST Departures, Global Temperature, ocean surface temperature | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

May Global Temperature Warmest on Record

Posted by feww on June 17, 2010

Spring and January-May also post record breaking temps: NOAA

June 2010 could also prove be the warmest on record, by a large margin: Fire Earth

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for May, March-May (Northern Hemisphere spring-Southern Hemisphere autumn), and the period January-May, NOAA reported. Worldwide average land surface temperature for May and March-May was the warmest on record while the global ocean surface temperatures for both May and March-May were second warmest on record, behind 1998.

Global Temp Highlights: May 2010

  • The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for May was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F).
  • Land surface temperature was the warmest on record, 1.04°C (1.87°F) higher than 20th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F).
  • Ocean temperature was the second warmest on record (after 1998) at 16.3°C (61.3°F), 0.99°F (0.55°C) above the 20th century average.
  • The warmest temperature anomalies occurred in eastern North America, eastern Brazil, Eastern Europe, southern Asia, eastern Russia, and equatorial Africa.
  • The Chinese province of Yunnan had its warmest May since 1951.
  • Many locations in Ontario, Canada had their warmest May on record.
  • Anomalously cool conditions were present across western North America, northern Argentina, interior Asia, and Western Europe. Germany had its coolest May since 1991 and its 12th coolest May on record.


Temperature anomalies May 2010. Source NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Global Highlights – March-May 2010

  • The combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for the March-May period was 14.4°C (58.0°F), the warmest such period on record, and 1.31°F (0.73°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F (13.7°C).
  • Global land surface temperature for March-May was the warmest on record at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 8.1°C (46.4 °F).
  • Global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest March-May on record (behind 1998) at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20th century average of 16.1°C (61.0°F).
  • The temperatures were very warm across eastern and northern North America, northern Africa, Eastern Europe, southern Asia, and parts of Australia.
  • Tasmania tied its warmest March-May period on record.
  • The Northeastern U.S. also had its warmest March-May period on record.
  • Conversely, cool temperatures enveloped the western U.S. and eastern Asia.
  • Western Europe was particularly dry for its spring season.
  • The United Kingdom experienced its driest spring in 26 years, and the 12th driest since 1910, when UK records began.


Temperature anomalies March-May 2010. Source NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Other Highlights

  • Arctic sea ice covered an average of 5.06 million square miles (13.1 million square kilometers) in May 2010, which was 3.7 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the ninth-smallest May footprint since records began in 1979.
  • Arctic sea ice melted 50 percent faster than the average May melting rate, the National Snow & Ice Data Center reported.
  • Antarctic sea ice extent in May was 7.3 percent above the 1979-2000 average, resulting in the fourth largest May extent on record.
  • Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during May 2010 was a record low at 4.3 million square kilometers below the long-term average. North America and Eurasia both had record-low snow extents for the month.
  • Northern Hemisphere March-May snow cover extent was fourth smallest on record.
  • The North American (including Greenland) snow cover extent for spring (March-May) 2010 was the smallest on record.

See also: May 2010 Global State of the Climate – Supplemental Figures and Information

Related Links:

Posted in Global SST anomalies, Global SST Departures, Global Temperature, global water crisis | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA

Posted by feww on July 10, 2009

ENSO Cycle Report by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  July 6, 2009

A transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is currently in progress.

  • A transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • Positive SST departures are increasing across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • Observations and dynamical model forecasts currently indicate a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is in progress.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

  • El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.

  • La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditionsto occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

  • The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

  • Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)

  • Used to place current events into a historical perspective

  • NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

sst anomalies 7jun-4jul 2009

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C in most of the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)

avg SST anom 7jun-4jul 09
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. North Atlantic SSTs were below average in both the tropics and portions of the high latitudes. Positive SST anomalies now extend along the west coast of North America into the Gulf of Alaska.

weekly SST Departures

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesThe

Cent and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean  Weekly Heat Content Anoms
The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have been positive since April, and have steadily increased since that time.

Information on this page is mirrored from ENSO Cycle Report by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  July6, 2009, with some editing by FEWW.

NOAA Press Release:

El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10

July 9, 2009

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

Sea Surface Temperatures the week of July 2009.
Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July 1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño. Animation.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean.  These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.

NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.


Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583). Credit: CPC/ NWC/ NOAAhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) – DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by  CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP –  9 July 2009 -
click here

Related Links:

Posted in Global SST Departures, La Niña, ONI index, SST departures, Tropical Pacific | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 394 other followers