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Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for the ‘significant events’ Category

‘Severe’ Earthquake Rattles New Zealand

Posted by feww on November 17, 2014

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 700, 500, 09, 08, 07, 02
.

M6.7 Quake Strikes Near North Island New Zealand

Centered at 37.682°S, 179.685°E the quake struck offshore at a depth of 22.0km (13.7mi), said USGS/EHP.

EQ Details [USGS/EHP]
Magnitude: 6.7Mw
Event Time: 2014-11-16 22:33:20 UTC
Location: 37.682°S 179.685°E depth=22.0km (13.7mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 182km (113mi) NE of Gisborne, New Zealand
  • 239km (149mi) E of Whakatane, New Zealand
  • 306km (190mi) E of Rotorua, New Zealand
  • 581km (361mi) NE of Wellington, New Zealand

Tsunami Evaluation

Small tsunami waves were generated, but they posed no threat to the coastal areas.

DYFI?

A resident in the town of Whakatane, located about 240km from the epicenter, described the quake as the “worst” she’d felt in a long time.

“[The] floor moved under me, vertical blinds really swayed, [it] went on for several minutes.”

EQ Deatils [Local Agency]
Magnitude: 6.5
Depth: 31 km
Location: 37.65°S, 179.87°E (155 km east of Te Araroa)

Other Significant Seismicity
M6.1 – 245km SW of Gizo, Solomon Islands
Event Time: 2014-11-17 01:06:00 UTC
Location: 9.553°S 155.151°E depth=25.2km (15.7mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 371km (231mi) S of Arawa, Papua New Guinea
  • 526km (327mi) E of Alotau, Papua New Guinea
  • 527km (327mi) W of Honiara, Solomon Islands
  • 657km (408mi) SSE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea

IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into FIRE-EARTH Channel daily @ 06:32UTC.


 

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First Paralyzing Winter Storm Arrives

Posted by feww on November 15, 2014

DISASTERS CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
PARALYZING WINTER STORM
SCENARIOS  887, 785, 666, 560, [500,] 444, 187, 177, 157, 111, 078, 063, 027, 023, 02
.

Arctic blast continues across much of the US: NWS

First major winter storm of the 2014/15 hitting the Rockies

A January-like weather pattern is forecast to continue across most of the US, with
another arctic surface high moving south from Canada, said NWS forecasters, reinforcing the freezing air mass already in place . . . “unseasonably cold temperatures will fall even further this weekend, and the cold temperatures will persist for most of the central and eastern U.S.”

The first significant winter storm for the central Rockies and intermountain West is underway and bringing heavy snow to the higher elevations and a wintry mix to the valley locations. Parts of Oregon and Idaho have already seen significant snow and ice accumulations from this event, and winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect from Oregon to the Colorado Rockies. [NWS]

The cold weather is forecast to affect the Deep South, with sub-freezing overnight lows from eastern Texas to the southeast coast, said the forecasters.

min temp-11-15-2014

National High and Low Temperature (for the contiguous United States)
NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD – Issued 7 pm EST Friday, November 14, 2014

High Temperature for Friday, November 14, 2014

  • 29°C (84 degrees F) at Pembroke Pines, FL

Low Temperature for Friday, November 14, 2014

  • -31°C (-24 degrees F) at Jordan, MT
  • -31°C (-24 degrees F) at 12 miles north of Hingham, MT

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‘Misunderestimated’

Posted by feww on November 9, 2014

Images of the day:

Timelapse camera caught in Kīlauea overflow

HVO- preimage-955-s
A timelapse camera that USGS HVO scientists were using to monitor a lava tube skylight was caught in an overflow this morning. In this view, recent lava has surrounded the tripod and melted the power cable. Daily updates about Kīlauea’s ongoing eruptions, recent images and videos of summit and East Rift Zone volcanic activity, and data about recent earthquakes are posted on the HVO Web site at http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov. [Source: HVO]

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Severe Flooding Swamps W. Uganda, Slovenia, BA, Argentina

Posted by feww on November 8, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
MAJOR DISASTERS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING
SCENARIOS 900, 477, 444, 111,  097, 071, 070, 066, 047, 027, 025, 023
.

Deadly Floods Triggered by EREs Hit Buenos Aires Province

Extreme Rain Events (EREs) since late October have flooded the Luján River, inundating large areas across 23 districts in Buenos Aires Province, and forcing more than 5,300 evacuations, government sources were reported as saying.

The worst affected areas are Tigre, Quilmes, San Fernando, Ensenada and Lomas de Zamora, as well as Luján and La Matanza.

At least two deaths have been attributed to the flooding, said a report.

EREs Displace Thousands in Western Uganda

At least 16,000 people have been displaced in the western Uganda due to severe flooding after River Semliki burst its banks following extreme rain events (EREs)

Slovenia issues more flood alerts

Flood alerts have been issued for central and southern Slovenia as extreme rain events continued to pound the country.

Thousands of homes around Ljubljana, the capital and largest city of Slovenia, have been flooded as rivers continued rising, local media reported.

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Nevada Quake Swarm Intensifies

Posted by feww on November 6, 2014

HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SEISMIC HAZARD
SCENARIOS 09, 08, 07, 02
.

Quake cluster continues to strike northern Nevada

Northern Nevada has been rattled by a swarm of at least 129 quakes in the past 7 days, with about 58 of the shocks measuring magnitude 2.5 or greater, according to data provided by USGS/EHP.

The largest quake measured 4.7Mw, striking at a depth of 5.3km north of the Bald Mountain.

EQ Details

Event Time: 2014-11-06 08:34:46 UTC
Location: 41.904°N 119.656°W depth=5.3km (3.3mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 68km (42mi) ESE of Lakeview, Oregon
  • 177km (110mi) ESE of Altamont, Oregon
  • 181km (112mi) ESE of Klamath Falls, Oregon
  • 182km (113mi) NNE of Susanville, California
  • 300km (186mi) N of Carson City, Nevada

A magnitude 4.6 quake struck the cluster zone on November 5.

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Earthquake Swarm Rattles N. Nevada

Posted by feww on November 5, 2014

HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SEISMIC HAZARD
SCENARIOS 09, 08, 07, 02
.

A cluster of at least 27 quakes strike northern Nevada

Northern Nevada has been rattled by a swarm of at least 27 quakes, with two dozen of the tremors measuring magnitude 2.5 or greater, said USGS/EHP.

The largest quake measured 4.6Mw, striking at a shallow depth of 0.1km north of the Bald Mountain.

EQ Details

Event Time: 2014-11-05 07:23:04 UTC
Location: 41.908°N, 119.620°W depth=0.1km (0.1mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 63km (39mi) ESE of Lakeview, Oregon
  • 174km (108mi) E of Altamont, Oregon
  • 178km (111mi) E of Klamath Falls, Oregon
  • 188km (117mi) NNE of Susanville, California
  • 307km (191mi) N of Carson City, Nevada

Seismic events have also occurred close to CA-NV border, north and south of Carson City, as well as in southern Nevada.

 

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State of Emergency Declared in Maine after Record Snow

Posted by feww on November 4, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC HAZARDS
EARLY SEASON BLIZZARD
POWEFUL NOR’EASTER
STATE OF EMERGENCY
SCENARIOS 887, 560, 477, 444, 177, 111, 066, 064, 027, 025, 023, 02
.

Massive “nor’easter” brings record snow to Maine

Gov. LePage issued an emergency proclamation after a rare, early season storm brought record snowfall to the state of Maine.

The powerful storm knocked out power to about 150,000 homes and businesses and made travel conditions treacherous across The Pine Tree State.

About 53 cm (21 inches) of snow fell in Cary, near the border with Canada, with double-digit totals reported across the state.

“Snow also fell as far south and east as Charleston, South Carolina — the earliest flakes on record in the city — over the weekend,” said a report.

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Federal Disaster Declared due to Hawaii Eruption, Lava Flow

Posted by feww on November 4, 2014

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
FEDERAL DISASTER DECLARATION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 402, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Major Disaster Declaration for Kīlauea June 27th Flow (DR – 4201)

The White House has declared a federal disaster in Hawaii County due to Kilauea’s Pu’u ‘Ō’ō volcanic eruption and the June 27th lava flow.

“Kenneth K. Suiso has been named as the Federal Coordinating Officer for federal recovery operations in the affected area.  Suiso said additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments,” said White House in a statement.

KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010)
19°25’16″ N 155°17’13″ W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Kīlauea Latest Images: November 2, 2014

HVO preImage-942
A breakout occurs from an inflated lobe of the June 27th lava flow on Sunday morning, November 2, 2014. Scattered breakouts like this, which took place about 200 meters (218 yards) upslope of the stalled leading edge, have been common over the past few days and are filling in low points behind the flow front. [Source: HVO]

Summit Observations: At Kīlauea volcano’s summit, tilt and lava lake level inferred from the webcams continue their gradual recoveries following last week’s DI event. Volcanic tremor persists at low amplitudes which show episodic fluctuation. There are no significant local seismic events evident on the seismograms from the NPT seismic station that is closest to Halemaʻumaʻu Crater. Sulfur-dioxide emission rate measurements for the summit ranged from 4,250 up to 7,000 tonnes/day (see caveat below) through the week-long period ending October 28, 2014. A small amount of particulate material was carried aloft by the plume. [HVO]

Activity Summary: Kīlauea volcano continued to erupt at its summit and within its East Rift Zone, and gas emissions remained elevated. As of Monday morning, the leading edge of the June 27th lava flow had not advanced beyond where it stalled late last week, in a residential area approximately 155 meters (170 yards) above Pāhoa Village Road. Activity behind the lava flow’s leading edge, within the flow’s interior and along its side margins, continued with localized breakouts of molten lava. Gradual inflation was recorded by the tiltmeters at Kīlauea’s summit. The level of the summit lava lake at Halemaʻumaʻu Crater, as reflected in web cam images, has also risen since Sunday. [HVO]

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NURI Becomes Seventh Super Typhoon of 2014

Posted by feww on November 3, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
SUPER TYPHOON
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
MAJOR STORM SURGES
COASTAL FLOODING
MASS EVACUATIONS
SCENARIOS  444, 111, 088, 070, 066, 033, 025, 024, 023, 022, 09, 02
.

Super Typhoon NURI Moving NNE

Super typhoon NURI (Typhoon 20W) was expected to peak Monday PM with sustained winds of 315 km/hr (196mph), and gusts of 380 km/hr (236 mph), according to earlier projections by JTWC, and become the most powerful storm ever recorded.

 Super Typhoon NURI (TY 20W) – JTWC FORECAST
November 03, 2014 @ 18:00UTC
Position: 20.4°N 133.9°E
Max Sustained Winds: 305 km/hr (165 kt)
Max Wind Gusts:  370 km/hr (200 kt)
Max Significant Wave Height:  15m (50 feet)

 Related Links

http://feww.wordpress.com/satellite-imagery/

 

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Freeze Warning for Eastern Third of U.S.

Posted by feww on November 2, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC HAZARDS
HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD
STORMS, HIGH WINDS, FLOOD WARNINGS
SCENARIOS 887, 560, 477, 444, 177, 111, 066, 064, 027, 025, 023, 02
.

Temperatures plunge 20ºC along parts SE Coast and Central Appalachians: NWS

“The eastern third of the nation will continue to experience well below average temperatures this weekend behind a strong cold front. A coastal low pressure system will strengthen on Sunday and bring gusty winds and precipitation to most of the Northeast Coast, including heavy snow for northern New England,” said NWS.

Meantime, a rare autumn blizzard has dumped up to 41cm (16 inch) of snow on portions of of the Carolinas and  Tennessee, blocking a large stretch of I40 in the Great Smoky Mountains.

weather hazmap
US Weather Hazmap for Nov 2, 2014, issued by NWS at 07:58UTC.

Current extreme weather warnings are in effect for Winter Storms, High Wind, Coastal Flooding, Gale, and Freeze.
 

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Significant Quake Strikes Fiji Islands Region

Posted by feww on November 2, 2014

HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SEISMIC HAZARD
SCENARIOS 09, 08, 07, 02
.

M7.1 quake strikes 141km NE of Ndoi Island, Fiji

Centered at 19.698°S, 177.794°W the quake occurred at a depth of 434.4km, said USGS/EHP.

EQ Details
Event Time: 2014-11-01 18:57:22 UTC
Location: 19.698°S, 177.794°W depth=434.4km (269.9mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 141km (88mi) NE of Ndoi Island, Fiji
  • 313km (194mi) WNW of Nuku`alofa, Tonga
  • 432km (268mi) ESE of Suva, Fiji
  • 470km (292mi) SE of Lambasa, Fiji
  • 546km (339mi) ESE of Nadi, Fiji

Tsunami Evaluation

NO Pacific-wide destructive tsunami generated.

Other Significant Seismicity

M6.0 – Easter Island region
Event Time: 2014-11-01 10:59:55 UTC
Location:  31.823°S, 111.180°W depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities: 544km (338mi) SSW of Hanga Roa, Chile

M4.0 – 71km W of Anchor Point, Alaska
Event Time: 2014-11-02 07:18:32 UTC
Location: 59.784°N 153.098°W depth=136.0km (84.5mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 71km (44mi) W of Anchor Point, Alaska
  • 237km (147mi) SW of Anchorage, Alaska

M5.4 – 51km SW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
Event Time: 2014-11-01 22:13:13 UTC
Location: 9.820°S, 159.685°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities:  606km (377mi) SE of Arawa, Papua New Guinea

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June 27th Flow Could Reach Ocean by May 2015

Posted by feww on October 30, 2014

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 402, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Kilauea’s lava flow continues to cross Pāhoa Village

FIRE-EARTH estimates the June 27th flow could reach the ocean, currently about 10km away, by May 2015. Temperature of the lava exceeds 850°C along the leading edge of the most rapidly advancing part of the flow.

HVO Daily Update:  October 29, 2014 @09:12 AM HST (Wednesday, October 29, 2014 @ 19:12 UTC)

KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010)
Coordinates: 19°25’16″ N 155°17’13″ W (19.421111N, 155.286944W)
Summit Elevation: 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Activity Summary: Kīlauea continues to erupt at its summit and within its East Rift Zone, and gas emissions remained elevated. Currently, the June 27th flow is advancing northeast through a residential area between Apaʻa St/Cemetery Rd and Pāhoa Village Road. During the past 24 hours, the leading edge of the most rapidly advancing part of the flow advanced at an average rate of roughly 10 m/hr (~11 yd/hr); between 2am and 630 am this morning, the rate of advance slowed to roughly 5 m/hr (~5.5 yd/hr). At 7AM, the flow front was about 240 m (~260 yd) straight-line distance from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO

Currently, the flow continues to advance at a rate of 5 m/hr (~5.5 yd/hr), said HVO.

  • GPS receivers in the summit area have recorded slight contraction across the caldera since early July. The most recent sulfur-dioxide emission rate measurements for the summit were 2,700–3,600 tonnes/day (see caveat here) for the week ending October 21, 2014.
  • The ambient SO2 concentrations near the vent vary greatly, but are persistently higher than 10 ppm and frequently exceed 50 ppm (upper limit of detector) during moderate trade winds.
  • The gas plume typically includes a small amount of ash-sized tephra (mostly fresh spatter bits and Pele’s hair from the circulating lava lake). The heaviest pieces are deposited onto nearby surfaces while the finer bits can be carried several kilometers before dropping out of the plume.


A view of the flow over Cemetery Rd./Apaʻa St. The transfer station is at the top of the image. Source: HVO


The June 27th flow remains active, and is slowly approaching Pāhoa Village Road. This photo was taken just before 10 am, and shows the flow front moving through private property towards a low point on the road. At 11:30 am today, the flow front was 215 m (235 yards) from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO


This photo looks downslope from Cemetery Road, and shows the pasture and cemetery that the flow front advanced through several days ago. Much of the cemetery has been covered by lava, but a kipuka has left a portion of the cemetery uncovered for now. Source: HVO

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Deadly Landslide Buries Scores of Homes in Sri Lanka

Posted by feww on October 29, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
DEADLY LANDLIDES
LOSS OF HABITAT
MASS DISPLACEMENT
CROP DISASTERS
SCENARIOS  900, 888, 444, 111, 071, 047, 027, 022, 09, 02
.

ERE unleash deadly landslide killing a dozen, leaving hundreds missing in Sri Lanka

A deadly landslide caused by extreme monsoon rains buried score of homes with hundreds of occupants in Meiriyabedda tea plantation near the town of Haldummulla in Uva Province, Sri Lankan officials said.

“Rescue operations have recovered 10 bodies so far,” said a spokesman for the Disaster Management Center, adding that the landslide was more than 3km long.

“At least 250 people are still missing and 140 homes are buried.”

Landslides in Sri Lanka killed at least two dozen people and left thousands displaced earlier this year.

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Lava Flow Nearing Residences in Pāhoa, Hawaii

Posted by feww on October 28, 2014

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 402, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Kīlauea continues to erupt,

Active lava flows can produce methane blasts, propelling rocks and other debris into the air, said HVO.

Kilauea Status Reports, Updates, and Information Releases  issued by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)

Monday, October 27, 2014 5:51 PM HST (Tuesday, October 28, 2014 03:51 UTC)

  • The advance rate of the narrow leading edge varied between 7 and 10 meters (8 and 11 yards) per hour today, which is equivalent to 170 and 240 meters (185 and 260 yards) per day. As of 4:30 PM, the flow was 510 meters (560 yards) upslope from Pāhoa Village Road; the flow width was about 50 meters (55 yards) at the leading edge.
  • The most recent sulfur-dioxide emission rate measurements for the summit were 2,700–3,600 tonnes/day (see caveat here) for the week ending October 21, 2014. A small amount of particulate material was carried aloft by the plume.
  • Potentially-lethal concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas may be present within 1 km downwind of vent areas.


The June 27th lava flow remained active, and the flow front was nearing residential areas in the northwest portion of Pāhoa. The flow front was heading towards a low spot on the Pāhoa Village Road, between Apaʻa St. and the post office. This photo was taken at 11:30 am HST on Monday, when the flow front was 540 meters (0.3 miles) from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO


This annotated photograph shows the notable features around the flow front. The photo was taken at 11:30 am, and also shows the distance the flow front has traveled between Cemetery Rd./Apaʻa St. and Pāhoa Village Rd. Source: HVO


A comparison of a normal photograph with a thermal image. The white box shows the approximate extent of the thermal image. The elevated temperatures (white and yellow areas) around the flow front indicate that significant activity is focused at the front, driving its forward movement. In addition, a slow-moving lobe was active upslope of Cemetery Rd. Farther upslope, scattered breakouts persist in the wider portion of the flow.  Source: HVO

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Kīlauea Lava Flow Consuming Everything Along Its Paths

Posted by feww on October 27, 2014

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Kīlauea Lava Flow Advancing toward Pāhoa, Hawaii

The June 27th lava flow continues advancing toward Pāhoa at a rate of up to 360 meters per day.

Kilauea Status Reports, Updates, and Information Releases  issued by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)

Sunday, October 26, 2014 5:59 PM HST (Monday, October 27, 2014 03:59 UTC)

KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010)
19°25’16″ N, 155°17’13″ W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

The relatively narrow finger of lava that crossed Apaʻa Street yesterday morning continued to travel downslope, splitting into two lobes as it advanced. The faster, northern lobe crossed completely through the Pāhoa cemetery by mid-morning, while the slower southern lobe was advancing through open pasture south of the cemetery. Another lobe farther upslope, just above Apaʻa Street, advanced about 50 meters (55 yards) since yesterday.

Over the course of the day, the advance rate of the narrow finger that crossed the cemetery varied from about 10 and 15 meters per hour (11 to 16 yards per hour), which is equivalent to 240–360 meters per day (260–390 yards per day). As of 5 PM, the faster-moving finger was about 390 meters (425 yards) downslope of Apaʻa Street and 660 meters (720 yards) upslope from Pāhoa Village Road. It had an average width of about 40 m (45 yd). The slightly slower-moving southern lobe in the pasture south of the cemetery reached slightly steeper terrain at mid-afternoon today, and was traveling at about 9 meters per hour (10 yards per hour) at 5 PM. It will likely rejoin with the finger that came through the cemetery near the northeast end of the pasture. [HVO]

 

HVO -905-small
As of 10 AM, HST, on October 26, 2014, the June 27th flow front remains active and continues to advance towards the northeast. A portion of the front is still moving through the open field (shown here), while the leading tip of the flow has advanced through the Pāhoa cemetery. Source: HVO

HVO-907-small
An HVO geologist walks across the surface of the flow, which covers the short access road to the cemetery. As is typical for pāhoehoe, the flow has inflated over the past day and was chest high in many places. Source: HVO


The June 27th lava flow crossed Apaʻa Street / Cemetery Road at 3:50 AM, HST, Saturday morning, October 25, 2014. In this photo, which was taken at about 9 AM Saturday, the flow is moving from right to left, with burning asphalt visible along it’s NW margin. A utility pole, far right, was surrounded by lava but remained standing at the time of the photo. The hope is that the protective insulation and cinder/cement barrier around the pole will prevent it from burning through. Source: HVO


This map uses a satellite image acquired in March 2014 (provided by Digital Globe) as a base to show the area around the front of the June 27th lava flow. The area of the flow on October 25, 2014, at 5:00 PM is shown in pink, while widening and advancement of the flow as mapped on October 26 at 12:30 PM is shown in red. The dotted blue lines show steepest-descent paths in the area, calculated from a 1983 digital elevation model (DEM).  Source: HVO

Sulfur Dioxide Advisory Level

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500 Days Left

Posted by feww on October 26, 2014

Humans failed qualifying for the next phase
.

Symbolic countdown to the onset of mass die-offs: 500 days left

FIRE-EARTH’s population model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact on the planet and the planetary response to the anthropogenic harm  could occur by early 2016.

  • The mass die-offs would occur “randomly.”
  • Once triggered, the mass die offs would follow own momentum and dynamics.

The symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011.

Collapse of Planetary Life Support Systems Accelerating …

HIoN Index

The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 382 in July, 2014. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.82 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

  • The index is rising exponentially.
  • HIoN reached 323  in July 2013 .
  • HIoN has risen 97 points, or more than 34 percent, since July 2012 when it reached 285.
  • The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.

According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.

HIoN since End June 2012

RAPID DECLINE OCCURRING!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 28 Times Faster in 21st Century

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 28 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity, caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, which is leading to a total collapse.

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

In 2011, FIRE-EARTH said: The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months. FIRE-EARTH models forecast:

1. Food production:

  • Average decline of 22% in the global agricultural output
  • Loss of topsoil and worsening of soil quality
  • Rapid Climate Change & Extreme Weather Events
    • Drought and Deluge
    • Extremes of Temperature
    • Heatwaves and Late Frosts
    • Desertification and Dust Storms
  • Crop Pests
  • Increases in the size and occurrence of dead zones
  • Large decline in marine food sources

2. Spread of Disease

  • Substantial increases in the spread of diseases
    • Vector borne
    • Air borne
    • Water borne
    • Food borne
  • Superbugs:  Emergence of resistant bacteria, especially MDR bacteria
  • Resurgence of killer infectious diseases
  • Increases in the spread of human immunodeficiency viruses
  • Significant decline in air quality (and corresponding increase in chronic respiratory diseases)
  • Other viral diseases
  • Massive rises in mental illnesses

3. Physical Safety

Major increases in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as large scale displacements due to the loss of shelter and livelihood caused by extreme weather and geophysical events including:

  • Tornadoes
  • Hurricanes
  • Storms and Extreme Weather
  • Climate Change
  • Extreme Rain Events
  • Flash Flooding
  • Drought and Deluge
  • Landslides
  • Extremes of Temperature
  • Deforestation
  • Wildfires
  • Loss of “Seasons”
  • Earthquakes*
  • Tsunamis*
  • Volcanic activity*
  • Nuclear Incidents
  • Oil Spills
  • Chemical and Biological Threats
  • Poisoned and Polluted Environment (Air, Water and Soil pollution)
  • Ozone Depletion  (Ozone Holes)

4. The Combined Effect

Social upheavals, regional conflicts and wars caused by mass migrations and scarcity of basic resources resulting from the combined effects of the above, as well as other mechanisms.

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 500 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

 

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Crop Disasters Declared in Six States

Posted by feww on October 23, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
DROUGHT
HAIL, HIGH WIND
CROP DISASTERS
SCENARIOS  477, 444, 178, 111, 100, 064, 03, 02
.

Crop Disasters Declared for 21 Counties across Six States

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has declared crop disasters for an additional  21 counties across six states—Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee—due to the losses and damage caused by recent drought, hail and high wind.

Crop damage and losses caused by a recent drought

  • Georgia. Miller, Seminole, Baker, Decatur and Early counties.
  • Florida. Gadsden and Jackson counties.
  • Alabama. Houston

Crop damage and losses caused by high winds and hail on October 7, 2014

  • Arkansas. Craighead, Mississippi, Crittenden, Greene, Jackson, Lawrence and Poinsett counties.
  • Missouri. Dunklin and Pemiscot counties.
  • Tennessee. Dyer, Lauderdale, Shelby and Tipton counties.

Crop Disasters 2014

Beginning January 10, 2014 USDA has declared crop disasters in at least 2,682 counties across 41 states. Most of those designations are due to  drought.

Those states are

  • Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. [FIRE-EARTH has documented all of the above listings. See blog content.]

Notes:
i. USDA trigger point for a countywide disaster declaration is 30 percent crop loss on at least one crop.

ii. The counties designated as agricultural disaster areas, as listed above, include both primary and contiguous disaster areas.

iii. Some counties may have been designated crop disaster areas more than once due to multiple disasters.

iv. The U.S. has a total of 3,143 counties and county-equivalents.

v. The disaster designations posted above were approved by USDA on October 22, 2014.

Latest/ Recent Crop Disaster Declarations

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Food Security Alert for Central America

Posted by feww on October 23, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
DROUGHT
COFFEE RUST (Hemileia vastatrix)
CROP DISASTERS
STATE OF EMERGENCY
FAMINE
MAIN SCENARIOS 900, 817, 808, 800,  444, 300, 277, 255, 244, 111, 101, 100, 03, 02
.

Drought, Coffee Rust Threaten Food Security across Large Areas of Central America

Poor harvest caused by drought and coffee rust threaten food security across large swathes of Central America, severely affecting millions of people in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador, according to Famine Early Warning System (FEWS).

Poor harvests caused by severe drought and “the reduction in coffee-sector income for day laborers, and a more rapid than usual increase in the prices of some staple foods, extremely poor households across large areas of Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador will experience a rapid deterioration in their food security in early 2015. Atypically high levels of humanitarian assistance, possibly the highest since Hurricane Mitch in 1998, will likely be required in order to avoid a food crisis,” reported FEWS.

Large swathes of central America have been experiencing severe drought since May, with the rainfall accumulation being up to 75 percent below average.

proj primera 2014 vs 2013 crops-FEWS
Estimated losses to basic grains for the 2014 harvests of Primera crops.  † For Honduras, the reference year is 2010/11. Source: Prepared by FEWS NET with data provided by national Ministries of Agriculture, and estimates

“Primera crops are estimated at between 9 and 75 percent, while losses incurred by subsistence farmers located in the worst-affected areas are expected to exceed 70 percent. Forecasts by the XLIV Central American Climate Outlook Forum indicate below-average rainfall will continue through November in all four countries, meaning that Postrera harvests are also likely to be below-average,” said FEWS.

 Honduras

The Government of Honduras declared a state of emergency for drought in the dry corridor in July, 2014.

As of last month, up to one million people (about 190,000 families) have been affected by the drought.

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China’s Largest Freshwater Lake Reduced by 1/3 in 3 Days: Report

Posted by feww on October 22, 2014

SEVERE HUMAN IMPACT
EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
DROUGHT
WATER FAMINE
CROP DISASTERS
MAIN SCENARIOS 900, 800, 699, 444, 200, 111, 101, 100, 090, 03, 02, 01
.

Poyang lake water level falling by 30 cm per day

“China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang, has shrunk by one third in the past three days due to reduced water supply from the Yangtze River and little rainfall,” reported the official Xinhua news agency.

The lake’s surface area was reduced from 2,169 km² on Monday to 1,490 km² Wednesday (October 22) , a reduction of 679 km², reported the Jiangxi Provincial Hydrological Bureau.

“The water level at Xingzi hydrological station was 11.99 meters at 4 p.m. Wednesday, 2.13 meters lower than the levels in normal years. The water level is falling by 30 cm per day.”

Limited water flow from the upper Yangtze River, due to the water being diverted to hydroelectric dams, and lack of rainfall in the province were two major causes for the loss, said the bureau.

Jiangxi Province has received an average precipitation of less than 5 mm since September 20, said the report.

“The sharp fall of water levels in the lake will affect shipping and fishing as well as the water supply for nearby residents.”

From 3500 km² to just 200 km²

The average area of the lake is about 3,500 in normal years. However, it shrank to about 200 due to drought and the practice of diverting water to the Three Gorges Dam in 2012.

“Every year, when the Three Gorges reservoir stores water – to power the dam’s turbines during the winter – the flow rate in the Yangtze drops. This in turn increases the rate at which the level of Poyang lake falls, and the period of low water comes sooner,” said Ye Xuchun, a researcher at China’s Southwest University.

“The incomes in fishing villages are dropping as fast as the water in the lake. Some residents will have move on to other trades,” said Xu Bin, the author of a thesis on the socio-economic consequences of the lake’s environmental disorders. He said: “The soil of China is dry, so the Yangtze is vital. Poyang is one of the key elements and its current predicament is a warning for the future.”

Habitat for 236 Species of Birds

Poyang Lake is a vital habitat for at least 236 species of birds including various endangered species, such as oriental white stork and white crane, and more than 100 species of wintering migrants, including Siberian cranes, according to a recent survey.

 

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‘Dramatic’ Temperature Drops Reported in North China

Posted by feww on October 22, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
EXTREME TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS
SNOWSTORMS
MAIN SCENARIOS 887, 808, 785, 666, 560, 444, 177, 123, 111, 063, 033, 023, 09, 02
.

Temperature Drops by 20°C in Northern China

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and northeastern Chinese provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin have experienced temperature drops of up to 20 degrees Celsius (36°F), China’s CCTV reported.

In Harbin, the highest temperature barely reached 5 degrees Celsius (41°F), said the report. “And the lowest in many cities is below zero. Heilongjiang’s Mohe has seen some heavy snowfall this season already.”

“The cold will also creep down into the southern and eastern regions, with temperature falls of up to 10 degrees Celsius, along with bouts of rain.”

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Global Temperature Reaches Record High in September: NOAA

Posted by feww on October 21, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
RISING TEMPERATURES
ECOLOGICAL COLLAPSE
SPECIES EXTINCTION 
MAIN SCENARIOS 900, 808, 800, 797,  777, 666, 555, 444, 300, 123, 111, 101, 090, 067, 066, 033, 011, 04, 03, 02, 01
.

Global temperature breaks September record; ties record highest for January-September

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces reached a record high for September, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), according to  NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Additionally, the first nine months of 2014 (January–September) tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), said NCDC.

If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest calendar year on record. The past 12 months—October 2013–September 2014—was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. This breaks the previous record of +0.68°C (+1.22°F) set for the periods September 1998–August 1999, August 2009–July 2010; and September 2013–August 2014.

Global Highlights

  • The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was the highest on record for September, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F).
  • The global land surface temperature was 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F), the sixth highest for September on record.
  • Heating Ocean. The September global sea surface temperature was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 16.2°C (61.1°F), the highest on record for September and also the highest on record for any month.
  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–September period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), tying with 1998 as the warmest such period on record.

 

Details posted at: NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for September 2014, published online October 2014, retrieved on October 20, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/9

Related Links (Most Recent)

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EREs Kill Dozens, Displace 36,000 in Nicaragua

Posted by feww on October 19, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
DEADLY FLOODS & MUDSLIDES
MAJOR DISASTERS
MASS DISPLACEMENT
SCENARIOS 888, 444, 111, 070, 066, 047, 027, 023, 022, 03, 02
.

EREs kill dozens, destroy thousands of homes, displace tens of thousands in Nicaragua

Extreme rain events (EREs) since September have unleashed deadly floods in Nicaragua killing at least two dozen people,  destroying or damaging thousands of homes and leaving more than 36,000 people homeless.

The rains have severely affected 17 departments in the country, and have impacted El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, according to local reports.

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Global Disasters/ Significant Events – October 18, 2014

Posted by feww on October 18, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC DISASTERS
DEADLY CYCLONE
DEADLY HURRICANE
DEADLY BLIZZARD
CROP DISASTERS
STATE TERRORISM
US COVERT WAR
SCENARIOS  888, 887, 785, 444, 200, 111, 100, 071, 070, 066, 047, 027, 024, 023, 04, 02
.

Cyclone HUDHUD: At least 41 dead, tens of thousands of homes destroyed

Death toll from cyclone HUDHUD has climbed to at least 41 in the Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, with tens of thousands of homes flattened and large swathes of crops destroyed.

Moisture carried north into Himalaya by the cyclone caused severe snowstorms in Nepal unleashing avalanches around Annapurna, the world’s 10th-highest peak (8,090m), killing at least 39 hikers, injuring nearly 200 others and leaving more than 50 missing, as of posting.

US carries out its 400th drone attack in Pakistan

US has carried out at least 400 drone strikes in Pakistan since 2004, killing about 2,400 people, but only 4% of drone victims in Pakistan were al Qaeda members, said a report.

“Only 704 of the 2,379 dead have been identified, and only 295 of these were reported to be members of some kind of armed group,” reported the  Bureau of Investigative Journalism.

US drone strikes and other US covert actions are currently being conducted in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia, said the report.

Hurricane GONZALO Slams into Bermuda

GONZALO slammed into Bermuda with winds of about 180 km/h ( category 3 hurricane) cutting power to tens of thousands of customers, and causing what is believed to be widespread damage across the 53-km² Island.

Roads are blocked by fallen trees and downed utility poles, with serious damage across the island caused by powerful winds and flooding, the Royal Gazette reported.

In 2003, Hurricane FABIAN, also a Category 3 storm, raked the island, causing about $300 million in damage.

GONAZALO caused destruction in the Caribbean earlier, killing at least one person in St. Maarten, according to reports.

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Hailstorm Destroys Crops in Colorado

Posted by feww on October 17, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
HAILSTORM
CROP DISASTERS
SCENARIOS  444, 178, 111, 066
.

Crop Disaster Declared for Colorado Counties due to Hailstorm

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has declared crop disasters for six counties in the state of Colorado due to damages and losses caused by a hailstorm that occurred on July 16, 2014.

Those counties are Otero, Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Las Animas and Pueblo.

Crop Disasters 2014

Beginning January 10, 2014 USDA has declared crop disasters in at least 2,667 counties across 41 states. Most of those designations are due to  drought.

Those states are

  • Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. [FIRE-EARTH has documented all of the above listings. See blog content.]

Notes:
i. USDA trigger point for a countywide disaster declaration is 30 percent crop loss on at least one crop.

ii. The counties designated as agricultural disaster areas, as listed above, include both primary and contiguous disaster areas.

iii. Counties may have been designated crop disaster areas more than once due to multiple disasters.

iv. The U.S. has a total of 3,143 counties and county-equivalents.

v. The disaster designations posted above were approved by USDA on October 15, 2014.

Latest/ Recent Crop Disaster Declarations

 

 

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Drought Destroys Crops in Georgia, Florida

Posted by feww on October 17, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
DROUGHT
CROP DISASTERS
SCENARIOS  444, 111, 100, 03, 02
.

Drought Crop Disaster declared for 19 counties across two states

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has declared crop disasters for an additional  19 counties across two states—Georgia and Florida—due to the losses and damage caused by recent drought.

Those counties are:

  • Georgia. Baker, Decatur, Mitchell, Colquitt, Grady, Thomas, Brooks,  Dougherty, Seminole, Calhoun, Early, Tift, Cook, Miller and Worth.
  • Florida. Gadsden, Jackson, Jefferson and Leon.

Crop Disasters 2014

Beginning January 10, 2014 USDA has declared crop disasters in at least 2,661 counties across 41 states. Most of those designations are due to  drought.

Those states are

  • Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. [FIRE-EARTH has documented all of the above listings. See blog content.]

Notes:
i. USDA trigger point for a countywide disaster declaration is 30 percent crop loss on at least one crop.

ii. The counties designated as agricultural disaster areas, as listed above, include both primary and contiguous disaster areas.

iii. Counties may have been designated crop disaster areas more than once due to multiple disasters.

iv. The U.S. has a total of 3,143 counties and county-equivalents.

v. The disaster designations posted above were approved by USDA on October 15, 2014.

Latest/ Recent Crop Disaster Declarations

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