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Archive for the ‘Typhoons’ Category

Typhoon SONGDA Targets Ryukyu Islands, Okinawa

Posted by feww on May 28, 2011

SONGDA Downgraded to Cat 3B on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Typhoon SONGDA could make a direct hit on the tiny volcanic island [and popular holiday resort] of Miyakojima (Pop: 56,000; area: ~ 160 km2; position: 24°46′N 125°19′E.)

Current Details

  • Date and Time   May 28, 2011 at 05:50UTC
  • Position:  Near 24.1N 124.4E
  • Location: About 530 km SW of Kadena, Okinawa
  • Movement over the past 6 hours:  NNE
  • Forward Speed: 28km/hr (15 KTS)

Current Wind Distribution:

  • Max sustained winds: ~ 193 km/hr (104 KTS) – [Cat 3B storm on FEWW New Hurricane Scale]
  • Max wind gusts: 235 km/hr (127 KT)
  • Max significant wave height: 11.3m (37feet)
  • Source: FIRE-EARTH estimates based on data provided by JTWC and others.


Typhoon SONGDA – VIS/IR satellite image – 4km res. Source: CIMSS. [NOTE: locations show on the map are approximate, and used for reference only.]


Typhoon SONGDA – IR satellite image  (BD  Enhancement) – 2km res. Source: CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.


Map of Miyakojima Island with the position of Typhoon SONGDA shown at 04:00UTC on May 28, 2011. Source: Digital Typhoon. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

Related Links

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Digital Typhoon Animations

Posted in Typhoons, Western Pacific Typhoon | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Mirinae Carved a Path of Death and Mayhem in Vietnam

Posted by feww on November 4, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Mirinae Left a Trail of Death and Destruction Behind in Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia

At Least 117 dead, hundreds injured, thousands of homes destroyed or damaged, thousands of hectares of rice and other croplands ruined.

Typhoon Mirinae killed at least 25 people in Philippines, with several others reported missing, after making landfall on October 30, 2009. The storm damaged about 15,000 structures, mostly houses, affecting about 100,000.

Mirinae temporarily lost its sting and weakened to a tropical depression as it passed over Luzon.

On November 2, 2009 it made another land fall in Vietnam’s central coastal areas as a tropical storm. It triggered severe flooding killing at least 90 people with 11 others reported as missing, and at least 60 injured, according to the officials.

More than 80,000 people were evacuated.

“Most of the victims were because of serious floods that hit the provinces of Phu Yen, Binh Dinh and Gia Lai in particular,” an official said.

Some 338 mm (13 inches) of rain fell in Vietnam’s central regions, according to the country’s national disaster committee, destroying or damaging about 2,600 homes and up to 2,000 hectares (5,000 acres) of farmland.

“Rain is not very heavy now but several areas in our province are seriously flooded,” an official said.

Mirinae left two people dead in Cambodia.

In September, TS Ketsana, one of Vietnam’s worst disasters in recent years, left about 165 people dead with hundreds more injured. It unleashed severe floods, inundated many thousands of homes and damaged thousands of hectares of ready to harvest rice paddies and croplands.

Related Links:

Posted in Cyclones, tropical storms, Typhoon MIRINAE, Typhoons, Vietnam | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Posted by feww on October 19, 2009

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

  • Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
  • Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
  • Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
  • Central pressure: 930hPa
  • Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
  • Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
  • Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
  • Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
  • Source(s): JMA; JTWC
  • Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

lupit - jma oct 19 - 0000utc
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

wp22 - JTWC
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track
. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.
Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Posted by feww on October 16, 2009

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

ts lupit -
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

LUPIT Pagasa
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPIT forecast cyclone position
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

lupit analysis

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

Other Satellite Images:


Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Philippines Still Flooded

Posted by feww on October 11, 2009

Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone;
Floods, risk of landslides remain strong

More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads  in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.


Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .

“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.

About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.

Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, hantavirus, hepatitis, Ketsana, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Philippines Terminally Impacted?

Posted by feww on October 10, 2009

Our thanks to EDRO Moderators for their input and direction

Ketsana, Parma and Melor: Harbingers of Bad Times Ahead?

Did the Three Storms Spell the Beginning of the End for the Philippines as We Know it?

On September 26, 2009 FEWW called the floods caused by storm Ketsana Philippines Worst Floods in Living Memory. Soon the fool extent of the human-enhanced disaster unfolded, as Tropical Storm Ketsana poured more than a month’s worth of rain on Manila in just a few hours.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. By mid day September 27, about 80 to 90 percent of the Philippines capital was still submerged under water.


Commuters wade through waist-deep floodwaters following heavy rains brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (locally known as Ondoy) Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Manila, Philippines. At least five people have been killed after nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just six hours Saturday, triggering the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in 42 years, stranding thousands on rooftops in the city and elsewhere as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.

FEWW Moderators expected Typhoon Parma to expand the destruction, and for the first time mentioned the probability of Manila collapsing.

Finally Parma Arrived!

Parma came, but for fleeting moments it looked like it could spare the Philippines main Island of Luzon. FEWW Moderators weren’t deceived, however. Driven by a more powerful storm, Typhoon Melor, which pinwheeled the by now weaker storm, ensuring that it would stay over northern Luzon for the next few days, Parma caused another round of deluge in Northern Luzon.

Could Manila Collapse?

On October 1, 2009, as Parma became a “super Typhoon, the moderators proposed:

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

And suggested:

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

By Saturday October 10, 2009 at least 265 people were confirmed dead as landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the previous two days, the officials said.

Toll from heavy rain in Philippines rose further as more bodies were recovered -afp
A total of 265 people were confirmed dead in landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the past two days. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

This death toll from the deadly storms now stands at 611 with dozens more reported missing. Two weeks after Ketsana struck, up to 350,000 people are still packed into temporary evacuation centers. More than 3 million people have been affected.

But the Philippines worst nightmare hasn’t even started.

The specter of infectious disease outbreaks looms over the Philippines. Up to 3 million people in the country are immediately threatened by the very high risk of outbreaks of water-, sanitation-, and hygiene-related disease as well as foodborne epidemics including cholera, hepatitis A and E, typhoid fever, and shigellosis (caused by Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), according to health officials.

The factors that are increasing health risks include:

  • Malnutrition
    • compromises natural immunity,
    • leads to more frequent occurrences of infections
    • Infections become more severe and prolonged
    • communicable diseases become more difficult to diagnose and treat
    • pose significant threat to public health
    • infants and children are particularly at risk
  • Disruption in power and fuel supplies with immediate impact on
    • drinking water
    • sanitation
    • personal hygiene
    • food production hygiene, refrigeration  and cooking facilities
  • Displaced population and overcrowding
    • overcrowding in temporary relief centers would heighten the risk of acquiring
      • acute respiratory infections (ARI)
      • measles
      • meningitis.

By end of November/early December 2009, additional exposure to disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes could increase the risk of

  • dengue
  • malaria

As well as rarer diseases such as

  • chikungunya
  • hantavirus
  • Japanese encephalitis

Disruption of Critical Services caused by flooding would prevent access to

  • health and social and security
  • medical, obstetric and surgical emergencies

Rainfall from Typhoon Parma

TYPH parma_trm_2009282
Typhoon Parma spent nearly a week pouring heavy rain on the northern half of the Philippine island of Luzon. This image shows both the storm’s track and the rainfall that accumulated between October 2 and October 8, 2009. The rainfall data are from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The satellites recorded more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain in places, shown in dark blue.

The heaviest rain fell on the mountain range that runs north to south along the length of the island, the Cordillera Central. Damages came from landslides on the slopes of the mountains and from floods caused by water flowing out of the mountains west to the South China Sea. The largest area of heavy rain sits over the Lingayen Gulf, the “u”-shaped body of water on the western shore of Luzon near the bottom of the image. One province in this region, Pangasinan, was between 60 and 80 percent flooded. The highest death toll came from another province, Benguet, a little north and east of Lingayen Gulf, where landslides impacted several villages.

The storm came ashore from the east and crossed the northern tip of the island on October 3, 2009. Under the influence of nearby Typhoon Melor, Parma stalled offshore, unleashing yet more rain on Luzon while spinning in place on October 4-5. Finally, the storm reversed direction and moved back across the Philippines toward Typhoon Melor on October 7. By October 8, Melor’s influence on Parma weakened, and Parma moved west again to make its third trip across Luzon Island. Many of the areas of heavy rain coincide with areas that likely saw Parma’s most intense inner bands more than once throughout the course of the week.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW]

Related Links:

Posted in Chikungunya, Displaced population, hantavirus, hepatitis, Japanese encephalitis, Ketsana, Luzon, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, the Beginning of the End cholera, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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