Italy Declares State of Emergency in EQ Zone

Aftershocks continue to rattle NE Italy; govt declares a 60-day state of emergency

About 5,000 people spent the night outdoors in parked cars or tent cities erected by the authorities, as the Italian government declared a 60-day state of emergency in NE region of the country covering areas around Bologna, Ferrara and Modena, where hundreds of businesses and thousands of workers have been affected.

• The quake killed at least 7 people and left dozens injured.
• At least 5,000 people were made homeless.
• Many homes as well as hundreds of businesses, small factories, warehouses, medieval churches, towers and castles have been damaged or destroyed.
• Many cows and other farm animals were killed in collapsed stables.
• Damage to the agriculture sector is estimated at more than 300 million euros [$380 million.]

Other Global Disasters, Significant Events

• Melbourne, Australia. Warming in Australia worst in 1,000 years.

• Nevada, USA.A fast-moving wildfire which was threatening up to 200 homes in an area near the Nevada-California border has consumed at least a dozen homes.
  • The fire has consumed about 4,000 acres in Douglas County, reports said.
  • Wildfires in Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico have  consumed at least 120km² so far this year, and forced the residents of several small towns to evacuate.

• Azerbaijan. A magnitude 5.6 earthquake which struck southwestern Azerbaijan areas of  Zaqatala and Gakh on May 7, 2012, has injured scores of people, damaged or destroyed more than 7,000 building and left about  7,000 families homeless,  reports said.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Australia: Extreme Weather Events Continue

TIME TO MOVE ON!

More extreme rain events, flooding hit Australia

Nature seems to be revising her plans, and the energy dinosaurs are not invited.

Australian Region Infrared Satellite Image March 6, 2011 – 10:32UTC
Source: BOM. Click images to enlarge.

• Colour Infrared Loop Animation of the last 4 images

TRMM Satellite Hydro Model – Australia

• TEXT REPORT OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND area with estimates of severe flooding near weather station locations
• 7 Day MPG animation
• 7 Day QUICKTIME animation

Australasia Weekly Rain Accumulation (TRMM)

Global Rainfall Average – TRMM Satellite

Global Rainfall Anomalies – TRMM Satellite

Click images to enlarge.

Australia Rainfall Map – March 6, 2011

Australia Flood Map : March 6, 2011

Warnings current:

NSW/ACT | VIC | QLD | WA | SA | TAS | NT

Northern Territory

• Flood Threat Advice

Western Australia

• Coastal Wind Warning 1,
• Ocean Wind Warning 2,
• Western Australia Flood Summary,
• Flood Warning – Murchison River Catchment.

South Australia

• SA Flood Watch.

Queensland

• Ocean Wind Warning 1,
• Coastal Wind Warning 1,
• Severe Weather Warning 1,
• Severe Weather Warning 2,
• Ocean Wind Warning from Fiji,
• Flood Warning – Coastal rivers – Maryborough to Gold Coast,
• Flood Warning – Moonie River,
• Flood Warning – Diamantina River,
• Flood Warning – Georgina/Eyre Ck,
• Flood Warning – Western Queensland Rivers,
• Flood Warning – Gulf Rivers,
• Queensland flood warning summary.

NSW and ACT

• Flood Warning – Murray River,
• Flood Warning – Culgoa, Bokhara, Narran,
• Flood Warning – Barwon-Darling DS Bourke.

Victoria

• Coastal Waters Wind Warning for Victorian waters between Point Lonsdale and 60nm east of Gabo Island,
• Local Waters Wind Warning for Port Phillip,
• Victoria Flood Warning Summary,
• Flood Warning – Murray River.

Tasmania

• Coastal wind warning 1.

This information was last updated by BOM  on Sunday March 06 2011 at 11:13UTC

Related Links:

• Back-to-Back Disasters Could Hit Australia: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

System 91S becomes Tropical Cyclone 24S

TC 24S Rainfall Captured by NASA’s TRMM

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite’s analysis of rainfall within Tropical Storm 24S on April 22 at 0708 UTC (3:08 a.m. EDT) showed areas of light to moderate rainfall. Image and caption: NASA

NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite has been flying over the low pressure area known as System 91S in the Southern Indian Ocean and providing estimates of rainfall within the storm. The storm has now strengthened enough to be reclassified as the twenty-fourth southern hemispheric tropical cyclone, “24S.”

TRMM found that there were some areas of light to moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour.

Rain rates are created from different instruments aboard TRMM. The rain rates in the center of TRMM images are derived from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the only space borne radar of its kind, while those in the outer portion are from the TRMM Microwave Imager. The rain rates are then overlaid on infrared data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner to create the entire image.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) this morning, April 22, Tropical Cyclone 24S had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph) making it of tropical storm strength. 24S was about 570 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia, near 13.1 South and 115.4 East. It was moving in a southerly direction at 6 mph (5 knots) but it is forecast to turn westward and head into open waters and away from Australia.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows increased central convection (thunderstorm development) and improved banding of thunderstorms around the center of the cyclone. Because 24S is in an environment of low vertical wind shear, it is expected to further intensify for a couple of days. After that, the wind shear will kick up again and weaken the storm. Source:  NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

-

Serial No 1,612. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Unusual News Items?

Link submitted by blogger TEAA

Angry Chinese Mob KFC Joints in China

Angry Chinese mobbed Kentucky Fried Chicken joints in China, kicking over chairs and tables at a Beijing joint, amid a row over a coupon promotion gone wrong, AFP reported

Angry customers wave their coupons at a Beijing KFC joint. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The trouble flared on Tuesday as the US restaurant chain launched a promotion in which coupons downloaded from the Internet could be exchanged for food at KFC outlets, the Global Times newspaper said.”

As the trouble escalated, police were called in to disperse the mobs, the report said.

The report did not mention any injuries or damage.

Customers were enraged because staff refused to redeem their coupons for the Super Tuesday promotion, saying they were fake.

“Crowds also gathered in at least one Shanghai branch, the newspaper said, adding that complaints were reported in at least four other major cities.”

“It is with great regret that the promotion activity caused trouble for some consumers. This was not the original intention of the activity we designed and for this we are deeply sorry,” said a KFC statement.

KFC  chain has more than 2,100 fried chicken joints in 450 cities throughout China, the report said.

‘Woman strangled to death go-karting’

A woman in her 20s was strangled to death by her own clothing while driving a go-kart in Port Stephenson, NSW, Australia, police said, AAP reported.

The scarf she was wearing became caught in the go-kart wheels and tightened around her neck like a noose.

Emergency services tried to revive her, but decided to the nearest John Hunter Hospital in Newcastle where she later died.

Serial No  1,557. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

TC Paul – Latest Rainfall Image

Serial No  1,523. If any post is blocked in your country, please drop us a line.

Paul is Still Dumping Heavy Rain Over NT, Australia

TRMM satellite passed over PAUL, which has been weakened to a tropical depression, on 31 March 2010 at 08:00UTC. PAUL was still dumping rain over a large area of the Northern Territory, Australia, as the TRMM rainfall analysis shows . About 50 mm/hr (~2 inches) of rain was being produced along the southwestern coast of the Gulf Of Carpentaria. Source: NASA/TRMM

Related Links:

• Cyclone Paul – TRMM Images
• TC Paul: Wet Storm in a Teacup?

TC Paul: Wet Storm in a Teacup?

Did we say everlasting storms?

Klingons would feel at home with Cyclone Paul—it’s like a bad dream that won’t go away!

Tropical Cyclone Paul (TC22P), more of a weakish storm than a muscle cyclone, has produced nearly 50 hours of rain on Australia’s NT coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, without moving much.

TC Paul has so far produced up to 1,000 mm of rain on the eastern coast of Arnhem Land, Northern Territory, Australia.

Summary of Details:

Tropical Cyclone Paul was located about 110km WNW of  Alyangula and 170 km SW of Nhulunbuy, moving west at about 5 km/hr. The cyclone is currently over land west of Cape Shield, according to BOM, other sources and Fire-Earth extrapolations, as of posting.

Although the system is expected to weaken as it moves further inland, it would probably re-intensify as  it moves back into the Gulf of Carpentaria by early Thursday local time.

Location: Near 13.3ºS, 135.6ºE

Cyclone Paul. IR Satellite image. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Cyclone Paul. IR?WV difference image. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

TC Paul Projected Path. Source: JTWC

TC Paul ‘Kangaroo Map.” Issued at 7:54 am CST Tuesday 30 March 2010.

Color-coded image of estimated rainfall total for March 22–28, 2010. Source: NASA

Tropical Cyclone Paul  MODIS image taken on March 29, 2010.Source: NASA

Australian BOM images:

• Latest image with no map overlay
• Latest image with map overlay
• Last 24 hrs with map overlay

• Colour Infrared Loop
• Infrared Loop
• Full Disk

Animations from Digital Typhoon

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18

ULUI Moving!

Having spent 36 hours in a ‘quasistationery state,’ ULUI is finally moving

If you have been monitoring satellite images of cyclone ULUI, you would have probably noticed it wasn’t moving much despite various data indicating an average speed of about 8.8km/hr.

ULUI is now moving at an average speed of about 9 km/hr (5 kt) SSW at sustained wind speeds of about 190 km/hr with gusts of up to 240 km/hr (but weakening).

ULUI is about 1,250 kms ENE of Cairns, Australia, and is expected to come ashore in about three and a half  days and dissipate over eastern Australia within two days thereafter.

The flowing image is a visible/infrared satellite image with all sorts of wacky dynamic model forecasts superimposed.

Cyclone ULUI – Visible/IR Image with Dynamic Model Forecasts Superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 18, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Whale of a Story

Submitted by a reader in Australia

As Sea Shepherd protester boards a Japanese whaling vessel to ‘arrest its captain,’ New Zealand govt agents quietly euthanize 28 Pilot whales

Pete Bethune, a Sea Shepherd protester from New Zealand, boarded a Japanese whaling vessel, Shonan Maru No. 2, to ‘arrest its captain’  for the ‘‘destruction of the Ady Gil and attempted murder of the six Ady Gil crew members,’ ‘A statement on the Sea Shepherd website said.

Ady Gil, Sea Shepherd’s ‘stealth vessel,’ collided with Shonan Maru No. 2 on Jan 6, and sank later.  Both parties have since blamed each other for the incident.

According to Sea Shepherd skipper Paul Watson Bethune traveled by jet ski from the Steve Irwin, the group’s flagship vessel to deliver a letter to the Shonan Maru No. 2 requesting he return with him to the Steve Irwin, to be transferred to New Zealand’s Maritime Safety Authority and police.

‘‘If you refuse to be arrested, then I am requesting that you deliver me to Wellington (New Zealand),’’ Bethune wrote in his letter to the Japanese captain.

‘‘Having sunk my vessel, and with our issuing of a mayday call, you have an obligation under maritime law to provide me with safe passage back to land,’’ he added.

‘‘I will only leave the Shonan Maru when you transfer with me to the Steve Irwin, or when we arrive on land, be it New Zealand or Australia.’‘

Bethune reportedly delivered an invoice for the cost of replacing Ady Gil, threatening the captain with criminal charges if payment was not received in four weeks.

‘‘We will be seeking punitive damages, in addition to the full replacement cost of the Ady Gil…further to this we will be laying criminal charges against the captain of the Shonan Maru (No. 2),’’ wrote Bethune.

Meanwhile, amid all the action on the high seas, New Zealand’s Department of Conservation quietly euthanized at least 19 pilot whales that were allegedly beached at West Ruggedy Beach on Stewart Island.

Department of Conservation (DOC) employees said they were forced to euthanize the whales, because the seas were rough.

“They were in reasonably good health when we got there but the weather conditions were so bad it would have been far too dangerous to try anything else,” an official said.

In December 2009, at least 150 whales died after they  became stranded on Coromandel peninsula, most probably due to noise pollution from NZ oil exploration, tourist boats and planes, as well as toxic pollution in New Zealand’s coastal waters.

Related Links:

• Noise from Oil Exploration, Tourist Boats Kills 150 Whales
• Dolphins and penguins are dying too!
• To & From New Zealand: Double Act of Eco-Terrorism
• Stop New Zealand Committing Eco-Terrorism!
• World’s beaches turned killing fields

• How Emily May Harper Was Killed in NZ
• Hundreds of Dead Animals Litter NZ Beaches
• Oceans are ‘too noisy’ for whales
• WDCS Blog
• International Fund for Animal Welfare

• Whale Songs Drowned Out by Human Noise Pollution
• Global food safety alert: Toxic NZ shellfish warning
• WhaleWatch

TC Laurence Intensifies to 140 km Winds

Cyclone Update: TC Laurence Intensifies to 140 km/h Winds [Gusts of ] Despite Moving Close to Shore

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (Laurence)

Active Tropical Cyclone in Southern Hemisphere

• Date Time: December 15 09:00 UTC
• Approximate Position: 14.6ºS, 125.4ºE
• Location:  Located approximately 530 nmi northeast of Port Hedland, Australia
• Movement: Has been tracking southwestward at 06  knots during  the past six hours.
• Max Sustained Winds:  075 knots, Gusts 090 knots [compared to winds of 35 kt and gusts of 45 kt 24 hrs ago]
• Max Significant Wave Heights: 5.3 m (16 feet)

The system is now expected to move further inland and dissipate within the next 72 hours.

TC Laurence Revised Projected Path. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

Infrared Mosaic Color Background  – Meteosat-7/MTSAT/GOES-West – South Pacific Region – CIMSS/SSEC/Wisc. Click image to update and enlarge.

• 2-Day Movie (JAVA)

Related Links:

• The Attack of the Cyclones
• What Mick Looked Like
• Satellite Imagery

SE Australia Toasted Brown

3rd year of drought in Australia

No Relief in Sight for Farmers in Victoria and New South Wales!

Drought in SE Australia

September 7-22, 2005

September 7 – 22, 2009

Centered on the agricultural areas near the Murray River, Australia’s largest river, between Hume Reservoir and Lake Tyrrell, the satellite images show vegetation conditions for a 16-day period in the middle of September in 2005 and 2009 compared to the average mid-September conditions over the decade. Places with vegetation above the decadal average are green, average areas are off-white, areas where vegetation growth was below average are brown.

Here at the border between the state of Victoria (south of the Murray) and New South Wales (north of the river), mid-September is the height of the growing season for cereal grains, including wheat, barley, and oats.

While the overall pattern in each year is unmistakable—2005 was the last year of good growing conditions—there are localized differences in how crops responded to the climate. These differences could have numerous causes, from localized rainfall to variability in the drought-tolerance of an area’s predominant crop type. At the individual field level, a brown or green patch in a single year could indicate a crop that was struggling or flourishing, but it could also reflect a management decision to plant or harvest at a different time or to leave a field fallow.

The images collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. NASA images by Robert Simmon. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, with assistance from Dath Mita and Curt Reynolds, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. [Edited by FEWW.]

Related Links:

• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• Australia: The Lost Continent?
• Deadly Weather in Your Area?
• Australia: World’s Smallest Continental Dust Bowl
• Could Dust Storms Bury Sydney, Australia?
• Australia: What can burn, will!
• Australia Blazing Oil Rig May Collapse
• Australia: Uranium Dust Threat Real?
• And dust to dust …

El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  30 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some parts across the eastern Pacific.

|

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

TOP: Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
Middle: Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies remained over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Above: Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific. An anticycloniccouplet was evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridge over Alaska and the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. During November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights across Alaska. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United Statesand below-average temperatures in Alaska.

Intraseasonal Variability

• Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

• Related to this activity
  • Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Update [23 Nov 2009]
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
• El Niño Update [10 Nov 2009]
• El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Links Archive]

El Niño Update [23 Nov 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  23 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.

Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific

• The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
• The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
• Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
• The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day

Click image to enlarge.

Intraseasonal Variability

• Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
• Related to this activity
  • significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  16 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.

• The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

• Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.

• Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.

• Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [28 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  26  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.

• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

• Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
• Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

Australia: World’s Smallest Continental Dust Bowl

Another Dust Storm Sweeps North Central Australia

Another dust storm blew across Australia’s Northern Territory and Queensland on October 26, 2009, as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead. This true-color image shows the dust plume traveling eastward. In Northern Territory, the dust passes south of Newcastle Waters. In Queensland, the plume skirts a cluster of fires—roughly marked by red outlines—that send their smoke plumes northward. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Michon Scott. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• Could Dust Storms Bury Sydney, Australia?
• How Large Is Your Dust Storm?

• And dust to dust …
• Australia: Uranium Dust Threat Real?
• Australia: What can burn, will!

• Image of the Day: Human Excesses
• Australian fires toll may exceed 200
• A Living Hell Heated by Australian Coal
• Torrential Rains Flood Northern Australia

• You want to lose weight without exercise?
• Australian Coal and the Planet
• Vast swarms of locusts sweep across Australia
• Murray-Darling River Communities Are Struggling
• Hell Hath No Fury Like the Australian… Bushfire!
• The day God [sic] washed his hands off St. Andrew’s church

• The Mesopotamian Dust Bowl
• Iraq Faces Environmental Catastrophe
• Riyadh City May Collapse by 2010
• Iraq Ecocide Nears Totality
• Image of the Day: Sandstorm in Saudi Desert

• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Future Scenarios
• Nuking Earth for Lifestyle
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Look me straight in the eye & tell me you can’t
• Protect Economy from Climate??!
• Blind scientists examining the economic elephant
• How Much Carbon Dioxide Does Your Money Make?
• Cosmic Scale Evil
• Index of Human Impact on Nature

• New York Cognitive Dissonance

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• The Billionaires’ contribution to CO2 pollution
• Stop Burning Earth
• Energy: 286W

• Failing Ecosystems

Australian Oil Disaster Links:

• Australia Fails to Plug Oil Leak in Timor Sea
• Timor Sea Oil Slick: Growing Australian Disaster
• Major Ecological Disaster Underway in Timor Sea
• Australian Oil Disaster May Get a Lot Worse

• The Australian Clean Energy Ruse
• Australia declares ‘natural’ disaster [again]
• Stick the Policies, Stop the Climate Change!

• How Much Oil Pollution Is Too Much?
• FEWW Earthquake Forecast: Timor Sea
• Magnitude 6.8 EQ Strikes BANDA SEA
• Australia hit by another man-made disaster