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Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force

Posted by feww on August 18, 2008

LATEST UPDATE: Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory No. 9a
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl AL062008
800 pm EDT Sun Aug 17, 2008

Highlights:

  • Fay is moving slower. She has not strengthened yet.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Tarpon Springs.
  • A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
  • A hurricane watch remains in effect for Cuba from the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect for the provinces of Cuba from Camaguey westward.
  • A TS warning remains in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
  • A TS warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys From Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.
  • A TS warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

TS Fay Moving Over Cuba


Western Atlantic Infrared Image – Realtime Satellite Images From GOES – NOAA

  • A TS watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter inlet and for lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.
  • A TS watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman Island.
  • Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Fay.
  • For storm information specific to your area including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
  • At 8:00 pm EDT 00:00 UTC the center of TS Fay was located near latitude 21.0 North, Longitude 80.3 west or about 200 miles (330 km) southeast of Havana Cuba and about 265 miles (430km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.
  • Fay has been moving slowly and somewhat erratically toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight with a turn toward the north expected Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, Fay is expected cross Western Cuba overnight tonight or Monday morning and move near the Florida Keys Monday or Monday night.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities.

  • Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/hr) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fay could be approaching hurricane strength when it reaches western Cuba tonight or early Monday and when it approaches the Florida Keys Monday.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
  • The minimum central pressure estimated is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
  • Storm tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible along the south coast of Cuba in the tropical storm warning area in areas of onshore winds. Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys in the warning area.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight and Monday over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula.
  • Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over much of Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over Grand Cayman and over the central Bahamas. Heavy rain may
  • Begin to affect the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible for the Florida Keys and south Florida.
  • Repeating the 8:00 pm EDT position: 21.0 N, 80.3 W.
  • Movement toward west-northwest near 10 mph.
  • Maximum sustained winds 50 mph. Minimum central pressure 1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 pm EDT. — Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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