Above Average Activity Predicted for This Year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season
An “active to extremely active hurricane season” for the Atlantic Basin this year, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The six-month Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially begins June 1 through November 30, and covers the entire Atlantic Basin, is predicted to see above average activity this year, according to NOAA.
- 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6 to 10 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
The probability of occurrence for each of the above is 70 percent, NOAA says, indicating that activity tops the seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia seen left to right in this satellite image taken on on September 16, 2010. Source: NOAA
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
NOAA predicts “below normal” hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific for 2011 with probability of 70 percent.
- 9 to 15 named storms, including
- 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which
- 1 to 3 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
East Pacific hurricane season began May 15th.
Central Pacific Hurricane Season
For the Central Pacific Region, NOAA predicts:
- Below normal season with a probability of 70 percent
- Near normal season, a probability of 25 percent
- Above normal season, a probability of 25 percent
NOAA predicts 2-3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific in 2011, with the average season experiencing 4-5 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes).
2010 season
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.
The 2010 season (the third most active season on record jointly with 1887 and 1995) experienced 19 named storms, 12 of which developed into hurricanes (second most active hurricane season jointly with 1969.
There was NO hurricane landfall in the U.S. last year. In fact, there hasn’t been a hurricane landfall in the US since 2008 when 4 hurricanes (Dolly, Gustav, Ike and Kyle) struck.
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.
FIRE-EARTH Forecast
Based on the blog models, recent trends set by the impact of weather extremes on population centers, especially since late 2009, and other geophysical and planetary factors, FIRE-EARTH believes 2011 could prove less lucky than the last two years. We forecast a particularly costly hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin in 2011.
About 40 million people in the coastal regions of the US, from North Carolina to Texas, are most at risk of hurricanes.
The contiguous United States Population Concentration Map. Prepared by FIRE-EARTH based on a template provided by NOAA.
Atlantic Names 2011 (with pronunciations included for the audially challenged)
- Arlene ar-LEEN
- Bret bret
- Cindy SIN-dee
- Don dahn
- Emily EH-mih-lee (!)
- Franklin FRANK-lin
- Gert gert
- Harvey HAR-vee
- Irene eye-REEN
- Jose ho-ZAY
- Katia ka-TEE-ah
- Lee lee
- Maria muh-REE-uh (!!)
- Nate nait
- Ophelia o-FEEL-ya (!!!)
- Philippe fee-LEEP
- Rina REE-nuh
- Sean shawn
- Tammy TAM-ee
- Vince vinss
- Whitney WHIT-nee
Earlier Forecasts
Based on various climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts an increase of about 24% in the severity of extreme weather events during the next 20 months, compared with the previous period.
Climatic Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond …
NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD. Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.
Start of Meteorological Spring Signals Hyper Tornado Season:Based on several climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts a deadly peak tornado season in 2011.
2011-2012: A TIME FOR MEGA-DISASTERS – Emerging Calamities You CAN’T Prepare for, or Insure against
Climate Change, Global Broiling, Volatility and Extremes of Weather, Mega Swings of Temperature, Megadeluges and Megadroughts, Giant Dust Storms, Megaquakes, Super Volcanic Eruptions, Extreme Wildfires, Food and Water Scarcity, Deadly Diseases, Megadeaths (Forests, Plants, Animal Species…) Looming Megadisasters Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of Human Population
Fire Earth 