Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Posts Tagged ‘Climate Change’

800 Days and Counting Down

Posted by feww on December 30, 2013

Homo Ignarus Reach another Expected Milestone in their Brief Pathetic History

Year two of BIG “Surprises” is about to begin!

Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems

The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 323 on July 1, 2013. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.23 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

  • The index is rising exponentially.
  • HIoN rose 38 points, or more than 13 percent, year to July 1, 2013.
  • The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.
  • Based on current FIRE-EARTH projections, the HIoN on July 1, 2014 WILL be a big “surprise!”

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

FIRE-EARTH - HION Index - 1 JULY 2013 - hsc2
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

RAPID Decline IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity, caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, which is leading to a total collapse.

Humanoids are about to enter a new year as the anthropogenic impact on the living environment continues to exponentially destroy the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

No major “inspiration” since harnessing fire

homo erectus harnessing fire
Homo erectus making fire – source: arthursclipart.org

[December 30, 2013] DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 800 Days Left 

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Climate Change, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, mass dieoffs, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

ZERO to none!!

Posted by feww on September 4, 2013

Sum total of the remaining options?

You can run, but you can’t go far!

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

FIRE-EARTH Population Model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 920 Days Left

Critical Planetary Overload

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Collapse in Progress

Posted in disaster areas, disaster calendar, disaster watch, disaster zone, global disasters | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Megascolecidae and AMHS

Posted by feww on August 20, 2013

Anatomically modern Homo sapiens (AMHS) 150 million times MORE harmful than earthworms

From a planetary point of view, and on a one-on-one basis, the average human ecological footprint is about 150,000,000 times bigger than that of the earthworm.

SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 934 Days Left

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

FIRE-EARTH Population Model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

Critical Planetary Overload

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Collapse in Progress

Posted in ecological footprints | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Texas is Fracked !

Posted by feww on August 19, 2013

Who Needs Water in Texas?

More than 30 Texas Towns Will Soon Run Out of Water due to Fracking

At least 30 towns in West Texas are running out of water because they are diverting their precious underground supplies to cope with their oil addiction.

Highlight from the video report posted below:

  • Some 8 million gallons of water is used per day for fracking a single well.
  • Thousands of wells are drilled by hundreds of rigs every day.
  • Fracking accounts for about a quarter of the water used in some communities.
  • About 30 communities could run out of water by the end of 2013, said Texas Commission on Environmental Quality .

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“More than 30 towns in West Texas will soon be out of water as a direct result of diverting their underground water supplies for use in hydraulic fracking. Largely unregulated fracking, it should be said. Largely unregulated fracking that is definitely putting arsenic into the ground it happens to be drying out. Before you start acting horrified, though, consider: this is exactly what Texas’ mental-midget teabillies voted for” said a report.

Related Links

Posted in disaster watch, disaster watch 2013, disaster zone, disasters, Global Disaster watch, global disasters 2013 | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events – August 13, 2013

Posted by feww on August 13, 2013

Extreme heat kills at least 40 people in south China

A heatwave that has been hovering over a large region encompassing eight provinces and municipalities in central, eastern and southern China has already been the longest lasting since 1961 (presumably when record-keeping began), with the temperatures reaching or exceeding 35ºC for an average of 25.3 day since July 1, said the National Meteorological Center (NMC). 

[Note: the actual number of people killed as a result of the heatwave may be much higher.]

“Authorities have for the first time declared the heat to be a second-level weather emergency, a label normally used for typhoons and floods. The NMC issued a second-level heat alert on Tuesday for the next 20 days.”

Worsening drought an the long-lasting heatwave have “taken a heavy toll on agriculture and made drinking water increasingly difficult to obtain,” said the report.

At least 130 million people in China have been affected by the drought and extreme heat. More than 10 million people, and as many livestock,  are short of drinking water, FIRE-EARTH estimates. See earlier posts on China drought.

china drought
Original caption: Withered tea plants are seen at a Longjing tea protection area in Hangzhou City, capital of east China’s Zhejiang Province, Aug. 12, 2013. More than 40 percent tea plants in the Longjing tea protection areas in Hangzhou died of the continuous scorching weather in recent days. (Xinhua/Long Wei). More images…

Related Links: Drought, Extreme Heat Cripple China, Japan, S. Korea

-oOo-

Iraq Death Toll

Since August 1, at least 400 people have been killed and more than 2,500 others wounded amid growing violence in Iraq.

  • In July, at least 1,057 people were killed and thousands more injured.
  • Since the beginning of this year, at least 4,500 people have lost their lives to the violence.

-oOo-

Vietnam’s coffee crop forecast down in 2013-2014

Vietnam’s coffee production for 2013-2014 is estimated at about 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 15 percent compared to the previous year, said the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa).

The decrease is due to the drought and hail in June, which damaged about 5,000 hectares of coffee plantation and affected other 27,000 hectares, said a report.

-oOo-

Fishery disaster declared in Apalachicola

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Pritzker has declared a commercial fishery failure for the oyster fishery in Apalachicola Bay, said a report.

“Gov. Rick Scott requested the declaration in September 2012 because the fishery was near collapse. A May 2013 state report sent last week to federal officials blames lack of fresh water flowing from federal reservoirs in Georgia and Alabama.”

“Pritzker declared the commercial fishery failure for the oyster fishery along the west coast of Florida. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the fishery resource disaster resulted from excessive drought conditions in Apalachicola Bay and elsewhere in the Florida panhandle during the 2012-13 winter fishing season.” More…

-oOo-

Cholera outbreak infects 1,500  in NE Afghanistan

A cholera outbreak in northeast Afghanistan has infected 1,492 people, killing at least one person and leaving more than 100 in critical condition, local officials told reporters.

-oOo-

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, global drought | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Drought, Heatwave Cripple China, Japan, S. Korea

Posted by feww on August 11, 2013

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

What’s Happening in Cyprus?

Posted by feww on March 23, 2013

In 2008, CASF Team analyzed  the impact of “extreme environmental stress” in Cyprus and forecast the island’s early collapse triggered by the ecological time bomb.

The post is reproduced below with the permission of our CASF and EDRO:

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Cyprus Collapse May Be Imminent!

Posted by edro on July 19, 2008 – Submitted by a CASF Member

Cyprus’s extreme environmental stress may lead to early collapse!

Ex-govt official: “We are going through a visual process of desertification.”

Main Causes of Collapse

Climate Change
- Persistent Droughts
- Disruption in climatic patterns
– Low Precipitation
– Higher than normal temperatures
– Heatwaves
– Wildfires and other natural phenomena [disasters] exacerbated by warming

Land
– Urbanization
– Land use and land cover change
– Loss of topsoil
– Soil degradation, especially salination
– Soil erosion caused by high temperatures, low precipitation and hot dry winds

Water
- Extreme water shortages throughout the island worsened by additional [including unforeseen] factors

Tourism
- Causing additional environmental stress
– Creating excessive waste and pollution
– Weakening the Island’s natural defense mechanisms

Main Effects

- Reduced ability to produce food
– Crop failure
– Continued water scarcity (compounded by economic/monetary issues)
– Breakdown of sewage, water and sanitation systems
– Spread of disease pandemics
– Overshoot of Carrying Capacity: The Island may have already passed the tipping point
– Resumption of the Cypriot civil war between the north and south enclaves reignited by the specter of ecological collapse
– Collapse of local ecosystems
– Desertification
– Land abandonment
– Population displacement/climate refugees

Possible Timeline

2011- 2013

Country Data

Estimated Population: 793,000 (July 2008 Estimate)
Area:
Total: 9,250 sq km (of which 3,355 sq km are in north Cyprus)
Land: 9,240 sq km
Water: 10 sq km

No. of Tourists: About 3,000,000

Land use:
Arable land: 10.81%
Permanent crops: 4.32%
Other: 84.87% (2005)

Irrigated land: 400 sq km (2003)

Total renewable water resources
: 0.4 cu km (2005)
Freshwater withdrawal (domestic/industrial/agricultural):
Total: 0.21 cu km/yr (27%/1%/71%)
Per capita: 250 cu m/yr (2000)

Primary Energy Consumption year 2007: 0.13 Quad BTU [CASF estimate based on EIA data]
Percentage rise compared to year 2000: 20.8 percent

Fossil Fuel consumption (excluding aviation fuel) year 2007: 2,431,399 tonnes of oil [source]
Percentage rise compared to year 2000: 18.4 percent

CO2 Emissions From Consumption of Fossil Fuels year 2007 : 9.65 MMT [CASF estimate for 2007]
Percentage rise compared to year 2000: 22.5 percent

Natural hazards: moderate earthquake activity; droughts

Environment – current issues:
water resource problems (no natural reservoir catchments, seasonal disparity in rainfall, sea water intrusion to island’s largest aquifer, increased salination in the north); water pollution from sewage and industrial wastes; coastal degradation; loss of wildlife habitats from urbanization.

Human Rights Issues
Cyprus [like New Zealand] is primarily a destination country for a large number of women trafficked from Eastern and Central Europe, the Philippines, and the Dominican Republic for the purpose of sexual exploitation; traffickers continued to fraudulently recruit victims for work as dancers in cabarets and nightclubs on short-term “artiste” visas, for work in pubs and bars on employment visas, or for illegal work on tourist or student visas. (Source CIA Factbook, Wikipedia, others)

Population density: It is estimated that at peak tourist season, the effective population density of [Southern] Cyprus exceeds that of the Netherlands (ranked world’s 25th most densely populated).


Location map: Cyprus (dark green) / European Union (light green) / Europe (dark grey). Credit: User 3meandEr, via Wikimedia Commons

Water Facts

  • After little winter rainfall, the drought in Cyprus is now in its fifth year.
  • Cypriot water reserves are at their lowest for 100 years; however, the effective population of Cyprus (citizens and tourists) have multiplied by about 150 folds.
  • “As long as the population remained [as] low [as] in the pre-industrial period, the water was sufficient for supplying cities which received water either from the mountains through the aqueducts or through the groundwater supply.” Said Chris Schabel, medieval historian at the University of Cyprus.
  • The entire island including both the Turkish Cypriot north and the Greek Cypriot south divisions are drought stricken.
  • The Island has an annual requirement of about 210 million cubic meters of water.
  • As of July 16, 2008 the water reservoirs were only about 6.5 percent full. Down one percent in the last three weeks (33 percent of the level 12 months ago).
  • Southern Cyprus’ 17 main reservoirs currently contain a paltry 17,733 cubic meters of water, some of which may be unsuitable for drinking.
  • Emergency measures have limited the supply of running water to homes to only twice weekly.
  • Most of the municipal wells have been shut down to avoid the risk of seawater contamination.
  • “The British policy of drilling boreholes throughout the island resulted in a serious depletion, due to excessive pumping of the groundwater reserves, in the main water bearing areas of Famagusta, Morphou and Akrotiri. It was calculated a few years ago that groundwater resources of Cyprus are over-pumped every year by 40 per cent over the allowable safe yield.” (Source)
  • Cyprus is buying from Greece 8 million cubic meters (2.1 billion gallons) of water to be delivered by November 2008 at a cost of €40 million (US$64 million). The water will only be distributed in the Greek Cypriot south.
  • The first ship carrying water from Greece arrived June 30 at Limassol (Cyprus’ main port). The officials then realized they could not pump the water from tanker because their makeshift pipeline was 10 feet short. Because of the delay, the water turned “odorous” and was deemed unsafe for drinking. The entire tanker load of 40,000 cubic meters was subsequently pumped into the ground, instead of the city’s water network due to contamination fears!
  • Under the initial agreement, two water-laden tankers were scheduled to leave Elefsina near Athens bound for Cyprus every day for six months (6 tankers delivering 200 shipments) between June and November 2008.
  • The Turkish Cypriot north is negotiating a separate arrangement with Turkey for their water needs.
  • The Greek Cypriot south plans to build a third desalination plant.

Agriculture, Wildfires, Desertification

“Extremely hot and dry weather conditions in Cyprus, combined with strong winds led to a disastrous upsurge of forest fires and wildfires in the Troodos Montain area on 29 June 2007. … Small villages had to be evacuated. Some houses were destroyed. Cyprus reported severe material damages in the area. Moreover, two forest fires hit Cyprus on 16 July 2007 in touristic areas of the Island. The first hit the vicinity of the Kalavasos village area … The other was close to Kornos village, which is located 20 km south of Nicosia [capital city]. The total burnt area … in Cyprus measured from satellite imagery on 31 July 2007 was 12 286 hectares.” European Civil Protection.

Climate change is pointing at us “like a loaded gun,” warned the EU Agriculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel at a conference on water policy last week.

“Global warming is happening,” she said. “It’s taken thousands of years for global temperatures to rise by just one degree. In this century we expect to see an increase in global temperatures of between two and six degrees Celsius.”

“Climate change has arrived. Drought has arrived. We need to take out insurance now. Good business sense demands better use of water. For those farmers caught unprepared, climate change could be a sledge hammer,” said Boel. “Maybe there are areas that will benefit from this, like in the north, but we expect climate change to leave a wave of destruction. We expect more heat waves, drought, floods and crop failures.”

We are going through a visual process of desertification. Krasochorio near Limassol, has lost its environment [Ecosystems have collapsed]. Around 85 per cent of the population has left. In Lania, 30 villas are surrounded by burnt land after the fires. What can the villagers do with them now?” Said the former Cypriot Agriculture Ministry official, Antonis Constantinou.

“What Cyprus is not good at is holding water, avoiding erosion, adapting to water shortage, and not giving incentives which can’t guarantee a better future for the island. We are also not so good at keeping greenery, avoiding fires, fighting fires, giving incentives to people to manage land, even non-agricultural land owners,” he added. (Source)

Recent History

Cyprus is situated in the eastern Mediterranean south of Turkey, north of Egypt, and east-southeast of Greece, It is the third-largest Mediterranean island and a busy tourist destination, attracting about 3 million tourists each year.

A former British colony, it gained independence from the UK in 1960 claiming sovereignty over 97% of the island and surrounding waters, with the United Kingdom controlling the remaining three percent. It became a member of the European Union May 1, 2004.

In 1974, following a period of violence between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots and an attempted Greek Cypriot coup d’état aimed at annexing the island to Greece and sponsored by the Greek military junta of 1967-1974, Turkey invaded and occupied one-third of the island. This led to the displacement of thousands of Cypriots and the establishment of a separate Turkish Cypriot political entity in the north. Cyprus is thus divided to:

  • The area under the effective control of the Republic of Cyprus in the south of the island
  • The Turkish-occupied area in the north, calling itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (recognized only by Turkey)
  • The United Nations-controlled Green Line, separating the two
  • Two “Sovereign Base Areas” or military bases Akrotiri and Dhekelia, where United Kingdom is the sovereign despite Cypriot independence. (Source: Wikimedia)


Map of Cyprus: WSBA and ESBA (British military bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia) are in pink, UN buffer zone dividing the northern (Turkish) and southern (Greek) administrations is shown in gray. The map is adapted from the CIA World Factbook map. (Source).

Related Links:

edro

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The Land of Rising Heat

Posted by feww on January 9, 2013

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

2012 warmest year on record for continental U.S.

The Lower 48 experienced its warmest year on record in 2012 as the average temperature rose to 12.9°C (55.3°F), some 1.8°C (3.2°F) above the 20th century average, and 0.6°C (1.0°F) above 1998, the previous warmest year, NOAA reported.

us temp 2012 statewide ranks
Every state in the contiguous U.S. had an above-average annual temperature for 2012. Nineteen states had a record warm year and an additional 26 states had one of their 10 warmest. Source: NOAA

Other Highlights

  • 2012 was the 2nd most extreme year on record for the country, according the U.S. Climate Extremes Index. “The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as landfalling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998. To date, 2012 has seen 11 disasters that have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses, to include Sandy, Isaac, and tornado outbreaks experienced in the Great Plains, Texas and Southeast/Ohio Valley.”
  • The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 67.5 cm (26.57 inches), 6.5 cm (2.57 in) below average.
  • The 2012 drought plagued 61 percent of the U.S. at its peak in July. “The dry conditions proved ideal for wildfires in the West, charring 9.2 million acres — the third highest on record.”

selected annual-extremes
Annual Extremes: Several locations throughout the United States experienced temperature and precipitation extremes in 2012. Most striking was the number of locations across the country that broke their average annual temperature record. These records were primarily driven by extremely warm maximum day time temperatures or daily highs, especially during the spring and summer months. More than a dozen of these locations also experienced their driest year on record. In those areas, the combination of the extreme warm and dry period resulted in a drought comparable to the drought episodes of the 1950s. Source: NOAA/NCDC

Significant weather and climate events- Preliminary

Significant weather and climate events- preliminary

GLOBAL WARNINGS

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DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,158 Days Left 

[January 9, 2013] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,158 Days Left to the most Fateful Day in Human History
  • Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...

Posted in extreme climate, extreme climatic events, Extreme temperatures, Extreme weather condition, extreme weather conditions, Extreme Weather Event, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global disasters 2013, global drought, Global Temperature, Global temperature anomaly | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Mega Freeze Could Paralyze Northeast

Posted by feww on September 20, 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,273 Days Left

[September 20, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,273 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

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Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Northeastern U.S. Could Become Arctic: FIRE-EARTH

Rapid climate change could ‘permanently’ transform Northeastern United States, bringing extreme cold and freezing up the entire region in the next couple of years (2013-2015), FIRE-EARTH Models show.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Global Climate Extremes, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global heating | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

August 2012 Fourth Warmest on Record

Posted by feww on September 18, 2012

Global Land Temperature:  Second Warmest August on Record

Average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was the 4th highest on record for August, at 61.22°F (16.22°C) or 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average, NOAA reported.

  • August 2012 was the 36th consecutive August and 330th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
  • Global land temperature was 58.52°F, which tied with 2001 and 2011 as the second warmest August on record, behind 1998.
  • Temperature for global land and ocean surfaces for June–August tied with 2005 as the third highest on record for this period at 61.25°F (16.24°C), or 1.15°F (0.64°C), above the 20th century average.

Related Links

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Climate Change, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, Global Temperature, global Temperature Anomalies, global temperatures | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Anthropogenic Hell Melting Icebox

Posted by feww on September 13, 2012

IF YOU WRECKED A HOLIDAY INN MOTEL ROOM , YOU’D PROBABLY GO TO JAIL.

Northern Hemisphere Ice Cover Continues Shrinking

The Arctic Sea Ice Extent shrank to 3.46 million square kilometers (3,456,695.22 km²) on September 12, 2012, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

 


Multi sensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere (MASIE -NH), September 11, 2012.  Source: The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Northern Hemisphere ice cover (million km²). Center for Ocean and Ice, Danish Meteorological Institute


Original Caption: The total area of sea ice is the sum of First Year Ice (FYI), Multi Year Ice (MYI) and the area of ambiguous ice types, from the OSISAF ice type product. However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure. In late 2012 sea ice climatology and anomaly data will be available here.

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global ghg emissions, global heating | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Image of the Day: ASIE

Posted by feww on September 7, 2012

Northern Hemisphere Ice Cover falls below 3.6 million km² —FIRE-EARTH 

As of September 5, 2011, the Arctic sea ice extent (ASIE) was 3,686,199.43 km² according to NSIDC.

  • Daily average ice melt for September currently stands at more than 87,000 km², NSIDC data shows.

Arctic sea ice extent fell below 3.6 million square kilometers (1.39 million square miles) on September 6, 2012, FIRE-EARTH estimates.

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall to about 3 million km² (1.15 million square miles) during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.5 [P = 54%]


Multi sensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere (MASIE -NH), September 5, 2012.  Source: The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

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Arctic Sea Ice Extent Could Fall to 3M Km²

Posted by feww on September 3, 2012

UPDATED September 4, 2012 @ 01:44UTC

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover Shrinking Rapidly

Arctic sea ice extent shrank to about 3.65 million square kilometers (1.41 million square miles) on September 2, 2012, FIRE-EARTH estimates.

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall to about 3 million km² (1.15 million square miles) during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.5 [P = 54%]


Arctic sea ice extent as of September 1, 2012.  Image Source: NSIDC


Arctic sea ice extent, September 1, 2012. FIRE-EARTH estimates the NH ice cover fell below 3.65 million km² (1.41 million square miles) on September 2, 2012.
  Image Source: NSIDC

Arctic Sea Ice Cover:  Denmark’s Center for Ocean and Ice (DMI)


Original caption:  Current Sea Ice extent. Total sea ice extent on the northern hemisphere since 2005. The ice extent values are calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice.        The total area of sea ice is the sum of First Year Ice (FYI), Multi Year Ice (MYI) and the area of ambiguous ice types, from the OSISAF ice type product. However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure.

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global heating, Global Temperature | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Down to 3.87M km² and Melting

Posted by feww on August 31, 2012

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover Continues Shrinking

Arctic sea ice extent shrank to about 3.87 million square kilometers (1.49 million square miles) on August 29, 2012 and continued melting, FIRE-EARTH estimates. The new record low was 100,000 km² below the September 18, 2007 daily extent of 4.17 million km².

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 3.8 million km² during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.8 [P≥77%]


Arctic sea ice extent, August 29, 2012. FIRE-EARTH estimates the NH ice cover has fallen below 3.87 million km².  Image Source: NSIDC


Arctic sea ice extent as of August 29, 2012. The ice extents is now the lowest in the satellite record.  Image Source: NSIDC

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

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New Hampshire Declared Major Disaster Area

Posted by feww on June 16, 2012

Severe storm and flooding prompts disaster declaration in NH 

The Disaster President has declared that a major disaster exists in the State of New Hampshire following the severe storm and flooding that occurred in Cheshire County on May 29-31, 2012.

“FEMA said additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments.” The WH said in a statement.

Other Major Disasters, Significant Events

  • Oklahoma. The Disaster President has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Oklahoma following severe storms, tornadoes, straight-line winds, and flooding that occurred during April 28 to May 1, 2012.
    • The worst affected areas were Alfalfa, Craig, Grant, Kay, and Nowata counties.
  • Paraguay.  At least 100 people were killed or injured when the police tried to evict landless protesters who had occupied a property in Canindeyu, 240km NE of the capital, Asuncion.
    • Both the Interior Minister and the police chief resigned over the incident.
    • Paraguayan President has ordered the military to intervene.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global health catastrophe | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Hottest U.S. Spring on Record

Posted by feww on June 8, 2012

U.S. experiencing record-breaking  temperatures: Report

Spring 2012 was the hottest spring on record. United States has also recorded both warmest year-to-date and twelve-month periods for lower 48, and 2nd warmest May: NOAA

March-May nationally-averaged temperature rose 5.2°F above the 1901-2000 long-term average of 57.1°F, breaking the record for warmest spring set in 1910 by 2.0°F, reported NOAA.

The 11 warmest 12-months periods ever recorded in the U.S.

The June 2011-May 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12 months on record for the contiguous United States.


These are the warmest 12-month periods on record for the contiguous United States. [All of these periods have occurred since June 1999. ] During the June 2011-May 2012 period, each of the 12 months ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. The odds of this occurring randomly is 1 in 531,441.  Source: NCDC/NOAA. Temp Departures Table.

The warmest year-to-date

“The January-May months were the warmest such period on record for the contiguous United States, with an average temperature of 49.2°F, 5.0°F above the long-term average. Twenty-nine states, all east of the Rockies, were record warm for the five-month period and an additional 14 states had temperatures for the period among their ten warmest.”

The second warmest May on record

May 2012 the second warmest May on record with the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. reaching 64.3°F, 3.3°F above the long-term average.

“The month’s high temperatures also contributed to the warmest spring, warmest year-to-date, and warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.”

Other significant climatic events during 2012 spring include

  • 31 states east of Rockies experienced record warm.
  • Gila National Forest Wildfire (Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire), aided by the ongoing drought and windy conditions, grew to 210,000 acres by the end of May, surpassing 2011’s Las Conchas Fire as the largest NM wildfire on record. [Currently reported at about 2670,000 and growing.]
  • NW OR received record precipitation at 10.83 inches,  more than 69% above average.
  • 3rd smallest snow cover extent across contiguous U.S.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in environment, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

Posted by feww on June 21, 2011

***PLEASE DISTRIBUTE WIDELY***  

WARNING: About 20 percent of the global population could perish by 2016

FIRE-EARTH’s population model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact on the planet and the planetary response to the anthropogenic harm  could occur by early 2016.

  • RANDOM. The mass die-offs would occur randomly.
  • UNSTOPPABLE. Once triggered, the chain-reaction created by the dynamics of mass die offs would burst out of control.

On May 15, 2011 symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began...

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months. FIRE-EARTH models forecast:

Food production:

  • Average decline of 22% in the global agricultural output
  • Loss of topsoil and worsening of soil quality
  • Increases in the size and occurrence of dead zones
  • Large decline in marine food sources

Spread of Disease

  • Substantial increases in the spread of diseases
    • vector borne
    • Air borne
    • water borne
    • food borne
  • Increase in the spread of human immunodeficiency
  • Significant decline in air quality (and corresponding increase in chronic respiratory diseases)
  • Worsening of water pollution

Physical Safety

Major increases in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as large scale displacements due to the loss of shelter and livelihood caused by extreme weather and geophysical events including:

  • Tornadoes
  • Hurricanes
  • Storms and Extreme Weather
  • Flash Flooding
  • Drought and Deluge
  • Extremes of Temperature
  • Wildfires
  • Loss of “Seasons”
  • Earthquakes*
  • Tsunamis*
  • Volcanic activity*

The Combined Effect

Social upheaval, regional conflicts and wars caused by mass migrations and scarcity of basic resources resulting from the combined effects of the above.

[June 21, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,730 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Related Links

Posted in environment | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Back to the Primordial Future

Posted by feww on June 19, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook in 50 States

Red Flag, Severe Weather, Tornado and Flood Warnings,  Hazardous Weather Outlook Throughout the U.S.

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months.   FIRE-EARTH models show:

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months. FIRE-EARTH models forecast:

1. Food production:

  • Average decline of 22% in the global agricultural output
  • Loss of topsoil and worsening of soil quality
  • Rapid Climate Change & Extreme Weather Events
    • Drought and Deluge
    • Extremes of Temperature
    • Heatwaves and Late Frosts
    • Desertification and Dust Storms
  • Crop Pests
  • Increases in the size and occurrence of dead zones
  • Large decline in marine food sources

2. Spread of Disease

  • Substantial increases in the spread of diseases
    • Vector borne
    • Air borne
    • Water borne
    • Food borne
  • Superbugs: Emergence of resistant bacteria, especially MDR bacteria
  • Resurgence of killer infectious diseases
  • Increases in the spread of human immunodeficiency viruses
  • Significant decline in air quality (and corresponding increase in chronic respiratory diseases)
  • Other viral diseases
  • Massive rises in mental illnesses

3. Physical Safety

Major increases in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as large scale displacements due to the loss of shelter and livelihood caused by extreme weather and geophysical events including:

  • Tornadoes
  • Hurricanes
  • Storms and Extreme Weather
  • Climate Change
  • Extreme Rain Events
  • Flash Flooding
  • Drought and Deluge
  • Landslides
  • Extremes of Temperature
  • Wildfires
  • Loss of “Seasons”
  • Earthquakes*
  • Tsunamis*
  • Volcanic activity*
  • Poisoned and Polluted Environment

4. The Combined Effect

Social upheavals, regional conflicts and wars caused by mass migrations and scarcity of basic resources resulting from the combined effects of the above, as well as other mechanisms.


Click image to enter NWS interactive portal.

Weather Forecast Map 18-19 June


Click image to enlarge.

GOES Western US SECTOR Infrared Image

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image

Click images to enlarge.

*[NOTE: Earth's geophysical activity help the planet to stay alive and healthy. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are among natural phenomena that comprise our planet's defense mechanisms. If you have difficulty understanding the concept of planetary self defense, consider the protective role of Earth's magnetic field against solar winds. Whereas CMEs, solar winds and geomagnetic storms are classified as external threats, the impact of harmful human activity on the planet can be regarded as internal threats.]


Artist’s impression of Earth’s magnetosphere. Source: NASA.


Simulation of Earth’s magnetic field in interaction with (solar) interplanetar magnetic field (IMF): The animation illustrates the dynamical changes of the global magnetic field in the course of a disturbance: a temporary compression of the magnetosphere by enhanced flow of the solar wind is followed by a tailward stretching of the field lines. Eventually, the increase of the tail magnetic field results in a sudden collapse of the nightside field (a substorm) and a gradual recovery of the magnetosphere to its pre-storm configuration. Source: NASA.

A Message to the Discovery Channel Science Team [and others]

Unless otherwise stated, ideas, concepts and information posted on this blog are the intellectual properties of the blog authors. Plagiarizing these ideas are unethical and run against the spirit of science.

Related Links

Posted in climate related disasters | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Temperatures Rising Rapidly

Posted by feww on January 21, 2011

Nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2000, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed

The first 10 years of this millennium were the hottest decade since records began in the 1830s.

“The main signal is that the warming trend continues and is being strengthened year after year,” WMO Secretary-General told reporters.

“The trend, unfortunately, will continue for a number of years but the amplitude will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released. It will depend on action taken to minimize the release of greenhouse gases.”

[What happened to the tipping point, still a taboo subject, WMO?]

Between 2001 and 2010, global temperatures averaged 0.45ºC (0.83ºF) above the 1961-1990 base and set a new record high for a 10-year period since climate records began in the 19th century, WMO said.

Top 10 Warmest Years


The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature is 13.9°C (56.9°F), the annually averaged land temperature for the same period is 8.5°C (47.3°F), and the long-term annually averaged sea surface temperature is 16.1°C (60.9°F). Source: NOAA.

Related Links:

Mega Disasters:

Posted in Global temperature anomaly, tipping point, Top 10 Warmest Years, WMO | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2011 Much More Disastrous

Posted by feww on September 13, 2010

2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010

Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population

The impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters on the population will be 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with 2010: Fire-Earth Forecast

Earth is critically wounded and diseased as a result of human assault and battery.

Humans’ first wave of serious [near-fatal] assault on the planet began in the early 1980s and has since heightened in severity.

Our feverish planet‘s fight against the “human pathogens” is entering a critical phase. The earth is reacting by deploying geophysical  phenomenon in her defense mechanism, as a result of which the impact of natural disasters on human population is intensifying.

In 2007 EDRO models showed that the intensity of disasters caused as a result of the human assault on the planet, and the planet’s struggle to heal herself, would lead to the first wave of collapse of the population centers globally by about 2012.

It already has!

The collapse has already started and would ultimately lead to the extinction [possibly near-extinction] of human race.

For the EDRO forecast to be true, the final years leading to the start of collapse, namely 2010, 2011 and 2012, must necessarily be progressively more disastrous.

Based on their models, Fire-Earth Moderators forecasted in December 2009 that the year 2010 would prove to be the most disastrous year on record. And with more than 100 days left to the end of this year, their forecast has already proven to be true and accurate.

What about 2011?

Fire-Earth models show that the impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters would be about 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with this year.

Based on their findings, the Moderators estimate that between one-third and one-half of the world population could be affected in some way by various disasters that are forecasted to occur in 2011.

Related Links:

Links to 2010 Disasters Calendar

January 2010 | February 2010 | March 2010 | April 2010 | May 2010 | June 2010 | July 2010 | August 2010 | September 2010 |

Posted in Extreme Rain Events, global heating, Global Seismicity, Global Volcanism, rising temperatures | Tagged: , , , , | 9 Comments »

Deadly Rainstorms, Landslides Strike Central China

Posted by feww on May 14, 2010

The death toll from rainstorm and landslides in central China reaches 12, with 42,000 people displaced

About 200,000 hectares of crops, 35 million tons of fish stocks, 2,850 heads of cattle and 105,000 poultry have been destroyed, a govt official said.

Meanwhile the death toll from rainstorms and landslides in central China’s Hunan Province reached 12, Xinhua reported the Hunan flood-control and drought relief spokesperson as saying.

The Day After: Where have all the Chinese Gone?


A worker is seen clearing  debris from a a flooded street in Xinyu, East China’s Jiangxi province on May 13, 2010. (Xinhua Photo). Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice.

At least 42,000 people have been relocated in the past 24 hours as the rainstorms pummeled more than 280 towns and communities in Hunan.

The rainstorms have destroyed or damaged 10,200 hectares of crops and 480 residential buildings in the region.

“The violent weather occurred five days after storms that killed 11 people and left two others missing in Hunan.” Xinhua said.

Heavy rains are forecast to continue buffeting Hunan province over the next 5 days “and neighboring Guangdong Province for the next two days, provincial meteorological authorities said Thursday.” Xinhua said.


People mend the road destroyed by the strong rainfall in Fengjia Town of Xinhua County, Loudi City, central China’s Hunan Province, May 8, 2010.   (Xinhua/Guo Guoquan). Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice.

In the bordering Jiangxi Province, flood levels rose to more than 6 meters near the railway station in Xinyu, the worst-hit city in Jiangxi, the report said.

“It was the strongest rain in the city since 1984, said Ge Suping, director of the Xinyu government.”

Since about May 5, flooding caused bu rainstorms in south China have left at least 86 people dead, 16 missing, and more than 200 injured, as well as causing about 5.9 billion yuan ($864 million) in direct economic losses.

More on this story…

Fire-Earth had forecast a major disaster in China on May 4, 2010, though the blog did not release any specific details.

Related Links:

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Posted in Climate Change, environment, Guangdong Province, Hunan province, Rainstorm death toll | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Verifiable Impacts of Climate Change Despite Dinosaurs

Posted by feww on April 30, 2010

Climate Change Indicators

Impact of Climate Change Despite the Massive Efforts of Fossil Fuel Industries to Spread Disinformation

The following is a summary of an EPA report titled ‘Climate Change Indicators in the United States’

Two points about the report and the summary:

  1. What impacts of Climate Change are evident in the US also apply globally, with little or no exception.
  2. Fire-Earth Moderators have selected those ‘Indicators’ that can be verified independently.

[NOTE: An indicator represents the current state of certain environmental conditions over a given area and a specified period of time. For example, temperature, precipitation, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.]

Key Findings: Climate Change Indicators in the United States Report

The Greenhouse Effect (All images and captions are sourced from the EPA report)


The Earth receives energy from the sun, then radiates much of this energy back toward space. However, certain gases in the atmosphere, called greenhouse gases, absorb some of the outgoing energy and trap it in the atmosphere. This “greenhouse effect” occurs naturally, but human activities have substantially increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, causing the Earth to trap more heat. This in turn is changing the Earth’s climate.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions


In the United States, greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities increased by 14 percent from 1990 to 2008. Carbon dioxide accounts for most of the nation’s emissions and most of this increase. Electricity generation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, followed by transportation.

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions


Worldwide, emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities increased by 26 percent from 1990 to 2005. Emissions of carbon dioxide, which account for nearly three-fourths of the total, increased by 31 percent over this period.

Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases


Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen substantially since the beginning of the industrial era. Almost all of this increase is attributable to human activities.

Climate Forcing


Climate or “radiative” forcing is a way to measure how substances such as greenhouse gases affect the amount of energy that is absorbed by the atmosphere. An increase in radiative forcing leads to warming while a decrease in forcing produces cooling. From 1990 to 2008, the radiative forcing of all the greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere increased by about 26 percent.

U.S. and Global Temperature


Average temperatures have risen across the lower 48 states since 1901, with an increased rate of warming over the past 30 years. Average global temperatures show a similar warming trend, and 2000–2009 was the warmest decade on record worldwide. Within the United States, parts of the North, the West, and Alaska have seen temperatures increase the most.

Heat Waves


The frequency of heat waves in the United States decreased in the 1960s and 1970s, but has risen steadily since then. The percentage of the United States experiencing heat waves has also increased. The most severe heat waves in U.S. history remain those that occurred during the “Dust Bowl” in the 1930s, although average temperatures have increased since then.

Drought


Over the period from 2001 through 2009, between 30 and 60 percent of the United States experienced drought conditions at any given time. However, the data for this indicator have not been collected for long enough to determine whether droughts are increasing or decreasing over time.

U.S. and Global Precipitation


Average precipitation has increased in the United States and worldwide. Since 1901, precipitation has increased at an average rate of more than 6 percent per century in the lower 48 states and nearly 2 percent per century worldwide.

Heavy Precipitation


In recent years, a higher percentage of precipitation in the United States has come in the form of intense single-day events [See Hydrokong.] Eight of the top 10 years for extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1990. The occurrence of abnormally high annual precipitation totals has also increased.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity


The intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico did not exhibit a strong long-term trend for much of the 20th century, but has risen noticeably over the past 20 years. Six of the 10 most active hurricane seasons have occurred since the mid-1990s. This increase is closely related to variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic.

Ocean Heat


Several studies have shown that the amount of heat stored in the ocean has increased substantially since the 1950s. Ocean heat content not only determines sea surface temperature, but also affects sea level and currents.

Related Links:

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Posted in drinking water, Drought, environment, Heat Wave, Ocean Heat | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

NCAR Report: Thou Shalt NOT Bullshit the Citizens

Posted by feww on April 16, 2010

Submitted by a member

Half the Energy Entering Earth System is Missing [sic]

What Happened to Basic Physics: A Bullshit Report by National Center for Atmospheric Research

Really? Could you permanently trap heat, as if by black magic? Is this trick cumulative too?

If this is good science, there is just one thing  left for the National Center for Atmospheric Research to do! Only one guess allowed.


This satellite map shows the amount of solar radiation (watts per square meter) reflected during September 2008. Along the equator, clouds reflected a large proportion of sunlight, while the pale sands of the Sahara caused the high reflectiveness in North Africa. Neither pole is receiving much incoming sunlight at this time of year, so they reflect little energy even though both are ice-covered. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on CERES data.)

How much is the sum total of the missing energy?

“The gap between what’s entering the climate system and what’s leaving is about 37 times the heat energy produced by all human activities, from driving cars and running power plants to burning wood,” Reuters reported the report co-author  John Fasullo of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research as saying.

Absorbed sunlight is balanced by heat radiated from Earth’s surface and atmosphere. This satellite map shows the distribution of thermal infrared radiation emitted by Earth in September 2008. Most heat escaped from areas just north and south of the equator, where the surface was warm, but there were few clouds. Along the equator, persistent clouds prevented heat from escaping. Likewise, the cold poles radiated little heat. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on CERES data.)

Energy lurking deep in the ocean?

Are the oceans evaporating? Is the air temperature rising by 20 degrees Celsius each month? Are there any signs that the heat is taking time off at a popular holiday resort in the Caribbeans? So, where’s the heck is this missing energy? Is this a spoof?

“It might lurk in deep ocean waters in areas sensors don’t reach. Some of it could be the result of imprecise measurement or processing of satellite or sensor data. But the greenhouse-caused heat gap is definitely there,” Reuters reported the authors as saying.

Half of the energy gap is unaccounted for, Fasullo and his co-author Kevin Trenberth said. “It hasn’t left the climate system but it hasn’t been detected with satellites, ocean sensors or other technology,” Reuters reported them as saying.

Try recalibrating your instruments instead of playing “silly buggers” with fundamental physics!

surface_energy_balance
The surface absorbs about 48% of incoming sunlight. Three processes remove an equivalent amount of energy from the Earth’s surface: evaporation (25%), convection (5%), and thermal infrared radiation, or heat (net 17%). (NASA illustration by Robert Simmon. Photograph ©2006 Cyron.)

How much energy are we taking about?

Well, things started getting out of hand around late 1970s to early 1980s. So the authors are probably talking about a 30-year period where half of the energy arriving, stayed behind. Here’s some basic calculation:

  • Total rate of solar energy received by the planet: ~ 180 prtawatts, PW [one PW is 10^15]
  • [NOTE: about half of that energy, 90PW, reaches the Earth's surface]
  • 180 ÷ 2 = 90 PW retained by Earth system [according to the report authors]
  • 90PW x 25 years x 31,556,926 seconds=  7.1 Exp10 PJ [71 yottajoules, or 71Exp24]  is the total rate of energy lurking in the oceans  [according to the report authors]
  • Volume of water on earth:  1.3 billion cubic kilometers of water [1.3Exp21 liter]
  • Definition of Mean Calorie [4.19J]:  The amount of energy required to warm one gram of air-free water by 1°C under standard atmospheric pressure.
  • Energy required to raise the temperature of 1kg [~1 liter] of ocean water by one degree: ~ 4.2 kJ.
  • The average rise in the ocean temperatures, if what the authors are saying were remotely plausible: ~ 13 degrees°C


On average, 340 watts per square meter of solar energy arrives at the top of the atmosphere. Earth returns an equal amount of energy back to space by reflecting some incoming light and by radiating heat (thermal infrared energy). Most solar energy is absorbed at the surface, while most heat is radiated back to space by the atmosphere. Earth’s average surface temperature is maintained by two large, opposing energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the ground (right)—the greenhouse effect. NASA illustration by Robert Simmon, adapted from Trenberth et al. 2009, using CERES flux estimates provided by Norman Loeb.)

How do we removed the last vestiges of credibility from the impact of GHG on Earth

Blame the ghost energy on the rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Then come up with dumb statement like “half of the energy coming into Earth’s climate system  is missing, but it could eventually reappear as another sign of climate change.”

The net effect of the above would work magic on rubbishing everything associated with GHG cause of climate change.

“The heat will come back to haunt us [like a ghost] sooner or later [as all nasty ghosts do,]” Trenberth said. “It is critical to track the build-up of energy in our climate system so we can understand what is happening and predict our future climate.”

Related Links:

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Posted in Earth’s Climate, energy budget, GHG, Super-destructive events | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Obama: A Serious Self-Hater

Posted by feww on April 1, 2010

Serial No  1,520. Starting today, each new post on this blog has been allocated a serial number. If any of the numbers is missing, it may mean the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line, if you detect any missing numbers.

submitted by a reader

Obama Hates Himself, His Kids, His Family and Rest of the World

He hates himself because he is emotionally unstable, has a weak character and has been trodden on all his life.

His hatred for rest of the world is all too evident in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has the blood of thousands of people on his hands, and it won’t wash off.

But, above all, he hates his kids. He couldn’t give a damn if they had a chance, a future, or not.

He has just unveiled plans for a “limited expansion” of offshore oil and gas drilling shamelessly disguised as winning Republican support for new strategies to fight climate change.

The moratoriums on offshore exploration which were secured  in the 1980s are all out of the window. [This is what the President had earlier called "hope and change."]

Oh, and he hates wildlife, especially in the coastal areas.

President B.O. is a pathological liar, too.


AssociatedPress — March 31, 2010 — Reversing a ban on oil and gas drilling off most U.S. shores, President Barack Obama announced an expansive new policy that could put oil and natural gas platforms in waters along the Atlantic coastline, the Gulf of Mexico and parts of Alaska.

If the national security of a country entails the health and well-being of its people, then Obama’s plan to expand offshore oil and gas drilling is a direct threat to the national security of the United States.

Here’s the unintelligent lies he delivered at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland recently:

“Today we’re announcing the expansion of offshore oil and gas exploration, but in ways that balance the need to harness domestic energy resources and the need to protect America’s natural resources.”

“Drilling alone can’t come close to meeting our long-term energy needs, and for the sake of our planet and our energy independence, we need to begin the transition to cleaner fuels now,” Obama said.

Just exactly what are our “long-term energy needs?” What exactly are your plans for saving the planet? What are “cleaner fuels?” How much cleaner are they? Exactly, how much of these cleaner fuels do you have in mind?

Note that everything is left vague and in a haze of uncertainty in the hope that somehow you’ll figure it out, making sense out of his utter nonsense. He hopes the majority will never catch on to the truth. Will you ever stop bullcrapping?

“I know that we can come together to pass comprehensive energy and climate legislation that’s going to foster new energy—new industries, create millions of new jobs, protect our planet, and help us become more energy independent,” Obama added.

What a load of hot doublespeak, Mr President.

“My administration will consider potential new areas for development in the mid and south Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.”

Meanwhile, his administration announced the cancellation of oil and gas drilling leases in the Bristol Bay area [for now, at least!] as well as four other [useless, unwanted] leases in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas off the north coast of Alaska.  The region will remain available to “future scientific research to assess their suitability for leasing.”


DOI Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Strategy – Lower 48 – Click image to enlarge.


DOI Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Strategy – Eastern Coast of Mexico Planning Area – Click image to enlarge.


DOI Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Strategy – Alaska Strategy – Click image to enlarge.

“There will be those who strongly disagree with this decision,” said Obama with a smirk.

No shit, Mr B.O.

What would his plan really mean

  • Continued addiction to oil
  • More intense, faster paces of climate change
  • Wilder climatic swings
  • Deadlier weather patterns
  • More oil spills
  • More sea and coastal pollution
  • Additional threats to marine life
  • More threats to the livelihood of coastal communities

May something have mercy on hid kids because, sure as climate change, nature will be inclement.

Related Links:

Posted in ConocoPhillips, Fossil Fuel, oil, oil and gas drilling, US energy policy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments »

‘Google Civilization’ Collapsing from Disinformation

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

Suppression of evolution through disinformation

When will the combined impact of the following factors cause the collapse of Google-cum-Facebook civilization?

  • Pillage of natural resources
  • Hyperactivity by energy dinosaurs,
  • Climate change
  • Spread of disease
  • Drought and deluge
  • Food shortages
  • Empire-building wars
  • Suppression of evolution through disinformation
  • Capitalism
  • Exponential growth economy
  • Other mechanisms

As for the Angkor civilization …

The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EICU) believes they may have the answer to at least one part of that question. Drought and deluge seem to have driven the ancient Khmer civilization to collapse.

Kudos to EICU for identifying at least one of the probable causes of collapse of the ancient Khmer Empire. And we are convinced they can do a lot more to explore  the role of the above-mentioned factors in the looming collapse.

The following is a public release by the EICU:

Did climate influence Angkor’s collapse?

Evidence suggests changing environment can bring down a civilization

Decades of drought, interspersed with intense monsoon rains, may have helped bring about the fall of Cambodia’s ancient Khmer civilization at Angkor nearly 600 years ago, according to an analysis of tree rings, archeological remains and other evidence. The study, published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, may also shed light on what drives—and disrupts—the rainy season across much of Asia, which waters crops for nearly half the world’s population.


The temple of Angkor Wat, Cambodia (aerial photo). The religious complex of Angkor Wat was center of a civilization that depended for irrigation on a vast network of canals, embankments and reservoirs. Credit: Charles J Sharp

Historians have offered various explanations for the fall of an empire that stretched across much of Southeast Asia between the 9th and 14th centuries, from deforestation to conflict with rival kingdoms. But the new study offers the strongest evidence yet that two severe droughts, punctuated by bouts of heavy monsoon rain, may have weakened the empire by shrinking water supplies for drinking and agriculture, and damaging Angkor’s vast irrigation system, which was central to its economy. The kingdom is thought to have collapsed in 1431 after a raid by the Siamese from present-day Thailand. The carved stone temples of its religious center, Angkor Wat, are today a major tourist destination, but much of the rest of the civilization has sunk back into the landscape.

“Angkor at that time faced a number of problems—social, political and cultural. Environmental change pushed the ancient Khmers to the limit and they weren’t able to adapt,” said the study’s lead author, Brendan Buckley, a climate scientist and tree-ring specialist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “I wouldn’t say climate caused the collapse, but a 30-year drought had to have had an impact.”

Scientists led by Buckley were able to reconstruct 759 years of past climate in the region surrounding Angkor by studying the annual growth rings of a cypress tree, Fokienia hodginsii, growing in the highlands of Vietnam’s Bidoup Nui Ba National Park, about 700 kilometers away. By hiking high into the mountain cloud forests, the researchers were able to find rare specimens over 1,000 years old that had not been touched by loggers. After extracting tiny cores of wood showing the trees’ annual growth rings, researchers reconstructed year-to-year moisture levels in this part of Southeast Asia from 1250 to 2008. The tree rings revealed evidence of a mega-drought lasting three decades—from the 1330s to 1360s– followed by a more severe but shorter drought from the 1400s to 1420s. Written records corroborate the latter drought, which may have been felt as far away as Sri Lanka and central China.

The droughts may have been devastating for a civilization dependent on farming and an irrigation system of reservoirs, canals and embankments sprawling across more than a thousand square kilometers. The droughts could have led to crop failure and a rise in infectious disease, and both problems would have been exacerbated by the density of the population, Buckley says.

The study also finds that the droughts were punctuated by several extraordinarily intense rainy seasons that may have damaged Angkor’s hydraulic system. During a normal monsoon season, Angkor’s hydraulic network could have handled heavy downpours, but after extended droughts, the system may have been vulnerable to massive siltation and clogging, the study suggests. Layers of coarse debris and other sediments found blocking some canals appear to have been laid down suddenly. In other spots, apparently sudden erosion cut canals as much as 8 meters below the surrounding landscape, potentially destabilizing the hydraulic system. Archeologists have found additional evidence that canals were rebuilt and rerouted to cope with water shortages.

In compiling the longest tropical tree ring record to date, researchers found that the third-driest, and the driest, years in the last 760 years occurred back to back in 1402 and 1403, about three decades before Angkor’s fall. The second driest was 1888, which coincided with the 1888-1889 El Niño, a cyclical warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. By correlating known El Niño cycles measured with modern instruments, researchers have documented how the cyclical warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean brings rain to some places and drought to others. The authors of the current study and other researchers suggest that El Niño, possibly abetted by longer, decades-long cycles across the Pacific basin, may have played an important role in shutting down the monsoon rains in this region, creating withering droughts in the past. Some scientists suspect that warming of the global climate may intensify these cycles in the future, raising the possibility of alternating Angkor-like droughts and destructive floods that could affect billions of people.

Similar studies suggest that abrupt environmental changes may have pushed other ancient civilizations over the edge, including the Anasazi people of the southwestern United States; the Maya people of Central America, and the Akkadian people of Mesopotamia. There is some evidence that other once-powerful kingdoms in what is now Vietnam and Myanmar may have fallen during the late 1700s, following extreme dry and wet periods.

“Both human society and the erth’s climate system are complex systems capable of unexpected behavior. Through the long-term perspective offered by climate and archaeological records, we can start to identify and understand the myriad ways they may interact,” said study coauthor Kevin Anchukaitis, a tree ring scientist at Lamont. “The evidence from monsoon Asia should remind us that complex civilizations are still quite vulnerable to climate variability and change.”

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Related link: An audio slideshow follows the researchers in their search for ancient trees to unlock the workings of the Asian monsoon.

http://www.earth.columbia.edu/videos/watch/108

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Posted in Angkor civilization, capitalism, collapse, drought and deluge, human impact | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

 
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