Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Posts Tagged ‘earthquake forecast’

MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING

Posted by feww on April 3, 2014

WARNING: NEW EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
.

WARNING: MEGA EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks.

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:  Magnitude 9.4Mw Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks with a probability of 54%.

See below for details:

Forecast Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Provisional Location: 17.8°S, 72.1°W (Provisional )
Provisional Depth: 12 km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 3 – April 30 2014
Probability: 54% (provisional)

Tsunami Forecast

Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.

CAUTION

1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries,  plagiarizing our research.

2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.

3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.

.

Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile

On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
  • Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
  • Depth: 30km
  • Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
  • Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
  • Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links

 


FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.


 

Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

M4.4 Quake Strikes Near Beverly Hills, California

Posted by feww on March 18, 2014

SEISMIC HAZARD
.

Magnitude 4.4 earthquake rattles Los Angeles area

Centered at 34.135°N, 118.486°W, 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California, the quake struck at a depth of 9.9km (6.1mi) on Monday March 17, 2014 at 13:25:36UTC.

The event was followed by a small aftershock measuring 2.6Mw, which occurred three minutes later.

Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 4.4Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-03-17 at 13:25:36UTC
Location: 34.135°N 118.486°W depth=9.9km (6.1mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 9km (6mi) NNW of Westwood, California
  • 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California
  • 12km (7mi) W of Universal City, California
  • 12km (7mi) N of Santa Monica, California

Earthquake Location Map

LA Quakes 17mar2014
Earthquakes Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity.

 

 

Posted in Global Disaster watch, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench

Posted by feww on March 17, 2014

EARTHQUAKE WARNING
.

FEWW Earthquake Forecast for Chile

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
  • Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
  • Depth: 30km
  • Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
  • Probability of Occurrence: 75%

Posted in Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Magnitude 7.7 Quake Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

Posted by feww on October 28, 2012

Earthquake Measuring 7.7 Mw Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands Region generating a tsunami

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Mega Quake measuring at least 8.8Mw could strike the region in the coming weeks with a probability of 0.75.

The powerful quake struck off Canada’s Pacific coast at a depth of about 16 km generating a tsunami, which forced  the authorities in Hawaii to order more than 100,000 people evacuate the shorelines.

  • Dozens of aftershocks, including at least 10 shocks measuring ≥5.0Mw had occurred, as of posting.
  • A Geophysicist at Tsunami Warning Center said the tsunami had caught scientists by surprise, Reuters reported.
  • “We thought that the earthquake was on land and when we learned that it was deeper undersea and we gathered more information, we had no choice but to issue a warning,” he said.

Quake Details

Region: Queen Charlotte Islands
Time: 2012-10-28 03:04:09.7 UTC
Magnitude: 7.7 (Mw)
Epicenter: 52.59°N, 132.19°W
Depth: 16 km
Source: GEOFON


EQ Location Map. Source: GEOFON © Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

The Largest Earthquake in Canada

Canada’s largest earthquake (magnitude 8.1) since 1700, occurred on August 22, 1949 off the coast of BC. It occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault (Canada’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault) – the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates that runs underwater along the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of British Columbia. The shaking was so severe on the Queen Charlotte Islands that cows were knocked off their feet, and a geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada working on the north end of Graham Island could not stand up. Chimneys toppled, and an oil tank at Cumshewa Inlet collapsed. In Terrace, on the adjacent mainland, cars were bounced around, and standing on the street was described as “like being on the heaving deck of a ship at sea”. In Prince Rupert, windows were shattered and buildings swayed. —Natural resources of Canada

Related Links:

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Deadly Earthquakes Destroy or Damage 20,000 Buildings in China

Posted by feww on September 7, 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,286 Days Left

[September 7, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,286 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

.

Quakes rattle SW China killing dozens, injuring at least 150 and destroying or damaging 20,000 buildings

Earthquake cluster struck SW China’s Yunnan and Guizhou provinces causing many deaths, injuries and major damage to property, reports said.

The seismic pattern suggests a major earthquake could strike the region in the coming days – FIRE-EARTH Forecast

  • The largest quake in the cluster measured 5.7Mw, which was epicentered at 103.95°E,  27.53°N, striking at a depth of about 10km (@ 2012-09-07; 04:16:31.5 UTC), GEOFON Program reported.
  • The mainshock was followed by more than a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which measured 5.6Mw, as of posting.
  • “All the victims were from the city of Zhaotong, which administers Yiliang. Preliminary investigation showed that more than 20,000 houses were damaged or had collapsed in the quake, according to the official.” Xinhua reported.
  • “More than 100,000 people have been evacuated in Yunnan as of 3:10 p.m., said an official with the province’s civil affairs department.”

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

NOTHING SACRED in SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY

Posted by feww on March 9, 2012

on November 19, 2011 FIRE-EARTH posted the following forecast:

Major Geological Events Forecast for Western U-S

Earlier today, MSNBC posted the following:

Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show

We won’t ask, what new data? However, note the researchers’ inappropriate use of the term “mirror image,” which they almost certainly borrowed from earlier FIRE-EARTH forecast [https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/new-round-of-geo-assualt/] but used it in the wrong context. Their slick prophecy about the time of occurrence, “it could be sooner rather than later,” is also mysteriously consistent with the above FIRE-EARTH forecast(i.e, short term). Though the researchers fail to say how they arrived at their conclusion or where it came from.

Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show

“It’s just like Japan, only a mirror image,” said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

“Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?” he asked. “I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later.” [Based on what assumptions?]
[...]
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a “mirror image” of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.

“In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan,” Anderson said.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/08/10603138-quake-catastrophe-like-japans-could-hit-pacific-northwest-new-data-show

NOTHING SACRED in SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY

MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES that are likely to IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, will comprise a number of discrete events, including at least several ‘surprises.’

Readers who are in doubt about the originality of the research at Hawaii and Nevada universities, could put their minds at rest of course by emailing the two academics named in the MSNBC article and asking them for details of those events (e.g, type, sequence, scale, probability of occurrence…).

JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast

In Japan Earthquake Forecast, posted on February 14, 2012, we said:

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan

FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE  ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.

Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

How could researchers from 4 different universities located on the opposite ends of Pacific Ocean, about 9,000km (5,500 miles) apart bluff their way in identical ways, fooling their respective taxpayers into believing they know their science? Is there a common link between Japan earthquake researchers, and their counterparts in Western U.S.?

Interestingly, it seems there is a solid link. Read the rest of MSNBC article Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show.

Related Links

  • WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Tectonics Update – January 28

Posted by feww on January 28, 2012

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  • Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
  • Probability of Occurrence
    • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
    • Jun –  Nov 2012: 68%
    • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
    • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
  • Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

Related Links

Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity

Posted by feww on June 17, 2011

Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]

For this forecast, EarthModel calculated about 12,000 variables using more than 200 trillion discrete computational steps in each simulation.

In the case of a previous forecast, The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt, posted on April 22, 2010, the Model performed about 40 times as many steps.

FIRE-EARTH also employs other models including EARTH ENERGY MODEL (EEM), designed by EDRO, and several probabilistic and dynamic models.

The blog forecasts are based on deep knowledge of geophysics and very high level simulation of computer modeling.

A Note to Internet Prophets

If you are copying the results of FIRE-EARTH research, often  posted on the blog as incidental summaries, and representing them as that of your own using “mundane astrology,” or “psychic and para-normal abilities,” as a blogger recently put it, “to portend a significant period on earth of profound change,” then you would be acting disingenuously and maliciously.

By making false prophecies you would only contribute to compounding the human ignorance, albeit that of the gullible internet dwellers.

Most intelligent Internet users would instantly see through prophecies like: “The period between 2012 and 2016 will see drastic ‘readjustments’ as 7 transiting to transiting squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn cause wide spread dislocations, famine, earthquakes, tornandoes, floods, volcanoes and a period of very dry weather; alternating between hot and cold.”

Please refrain from spreading ignorance on the Internet.

Posted in environment | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

New Zealand Region Earthquake Warning

Posted by feww on January 15, 2011

FIRE-EARTH Megaquake Forecast: Kermadec Islands Region/New Zealand Region

A megaquake measuring about 8.8Mw could strike Kermadec Islands Region/ New Zealand Region in 2011/2012 with a probability of 72%.

Related Links:

Posted in New Zealand earthquake, New Zealand earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on December 21, 2010

Powerful Quake Strikes Japan’s Bonin Islands


Earthquake Location Map. Cross shows epicenter of the 7.4Mw quake, while the colored bubbles indicate the seismic intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.

Tsunami Warning/Advisory

The 7.4Mw quake struck at a depth of 10km and created a tsunami which reached a height of about  3m (10 feet) in at least a dozen locations around Japan’s coastal areas

JMA said on its Website:

Tsunami Observations
As of 05:40 JST (UTC+ 9 hours)
At some parts of the coasts, tsunamis may be higher than those observed at the observation sites.
The tsunamis can become higher from now on.

However, JMA later downgraded the warning to a tsunami advisory for the area.


Tsunami Map for the 7.4Mw Bonin Islands Earthquake.
Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright. The tsunami reached a height of about 3m in at least 12 locations around Japan’s coastal areas.

Earthquake Details [JMA]

  • Magnitude: 7.4Mw [Reported as 7.5Mw by GFZ Potsdam - Earthquake Bulletin]
  • Date- Time 02:20 JST on 22 Dec 2010 a
  • Location: 27.5N 143.4E  Depth: 10km
  • Region: Chichijima Kinkai  [Bonin Islands, Japan Region]
  • Distances [USGS]
    • 150 km (95 miles) E of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan
    • 335 km (210 miles) NE of Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, Japan
    • 1050 km (650 miles) SSE of TOKYO, Japan

Aftershocks

About 3 dozen strong aftershocks were reported, as of posting, the most significant of which measured 5.0Mw. Many more aftershocks may follow in the coming days and weeks.

FEWW Forecast

More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.

On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast

Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

Japan Earthquake Forecasts (FEWW)

Related Links:

Posted in Bonin Islands Earthquakes, Chichijima Kinkai, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan tsunami, Ogasawara Islands | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Honshu Earthquake Warning

Posted by feww on November 10, 2010

Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.

Related Links:

Posted in Honshu, Japan, japan earthquake, Japan earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

Chile Earthquake and Tsunami Update 1 (28 Feb)

Posted by feww on February 28, 2010

Death Toll reaches 309 and Rising

8.8 Megaquake destroys houses, buildings, hospitals, bridges, roads and other structures

The Chile M8.8 quake released about 180 times more energy than the recent Haiti quake (estimated at 7.3Mw). Up to 70 medium to powerful aftershocks measuring M5.0 to M7.0 have been reported by USGS and other EQ monitoring centers

Chilean government has declared 6 regions as “zones of catastrophe,” but has made no formal request for international aid as yet.

Power and telephone lines are down throughout most of Chile making the flow of information extremely difficult [Other countries are advised to revise their communication systems]

  • Water lines are cut off in most parts of the country.
  • Many deaths are reported in Maule near the epicenter, as well as in the regions of  Araucania,  Biobio,  O’Higgins,  Santiago and Valparaiso, some of the places where powerful aftershocks occurred.
  • In Santiago, capital of Chile, at least a dozen large building have collapse killing more than 15 people (the death toll could rise).
  • About 200 people were caught inside an apartment block which collapsed  in the major city of Concepcion, the closest to the epicenter, and officials said they had no idea if anyone escaped, according to news reports.
  • A chemical plant near Santiago has caught fire forcing the authorities to evacuate several thousand people from the neighborhood.
  • Santiago International airport has been damaged and will be closed for at least a week.


Freeze frame from a local TV report shows  a building in Concepcion that caught fire as a result of the earthquake.

The international airport in Santiago, the Chilean capital, located about 320km (200 miles) north of the epicenter, was  closed as the megaquake caused damage to some roads and building facades.

A strong M6.3 aftershock in Salta, Argentina killed at least 2 people last night, officials said.


Rescue workers search for victims and survivors after an apartment complex collapsed during an earthquake in Concepcion some 100 km (62 miles) south of the epicenter, February 27, 2010.  Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra. Image may be subject to copyright. For more image images, click links in the Related Images section below.

The megaquake was the fifth-largest seismic event since 1900.   Chile was also the scene of the largest earthquake in the world  which measured 9.5Mw, which killed  1,655 people and injure 3,000 others, leaving about 2,000,000 homeless.

The tsunami generated by the 1960 quake  caused 61 deaths and $75 million damage in Hawaii [most of the damage occurred at Hilo, with the runup height reaching 10.6 m.] Several hundred other people in Japan and the Philippines were also killed or reported missing as a result of the destructive tsunami.


Collapsed highway Near Santiago.  Vehicles driving along a highway that collapsed during the megaquake were thrown on the road below on Saturday. Photo Credit:  Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notie.

Tsunami

Japan is bracing for a possible tsunami wave of 3m (10ft) or higher that could strike the Pacific coast of Hokkaido at about 13:00JST  (04:00 UTC).


Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Tsunami Forecast Map.  Image may be subject to copyright.

  • Major Tsunami is marked in RED: Tsunami height is expected to be 3 meters or higher.
  • Tsunami is marked in YELLOW: Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters.
  • Tsunami Advisory: Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters.

Japanese government has ordered thousands of residents on coastal areas to evacuate to higher grounds.

A tsunami generated by the megaquake overwhelmed the port of Talcahuano, a major port in southern Chile, causing substantial damage to the harbor and the boats, and flooding streets.

A huge wave swept the Juan Fernandez islands, President Michelle Bachelet was reported as saying. The wave reportedly 7, with at least a dozen more islanders reported missing, according to a local officials.

Hawaii recorded tsunami surges of up to 12 inches about half an hour later than oceanographers had forecast, according to an official with the Hawaii County Civil Defense. Some officials had predicted that the waves would be as high as 4.8m (14 feet) despite the freely available tsunami ADVISORY reports.

In French Polynesia, a 1.8m (6 ft ) high wave swept ashore. As of posting,  there was no reports of casualties or damage. However,  casualties and damage will most probably occur.

A 1.7m was observed at Valparaiso, west of Santiago, and reports of more damage are expected.

In Australia, a tsunami wave measuring 50cm (1.6 feet) was reported off Norfolk Island, about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles ) northeast of Sydney.

On Chatham Islands, NZ officials reported a 2-meter high wave striking the coast. About a thousand people in the coastal cities of Gisborne and Napier in the  North Island were reportedly evacuated from low-lying areas.

In Tonga, there were reports of a 2.2-meter (6.6 feet) high wave sweeping an unnamed small northern island, an official said.

In the Philippines the officials said they were expecting a 1-meter high wave later this afternoon local time.

Socioeconomic Aftershocks

President Michelle Bachelet has said that two million Chileans have been affected by the Saturday’s Megaquake. Her estimate is realistic.

Thousands of people in Argentina may have also been affected.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W (USGS)


Latest EQ Location map.
Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Fire-Earth Moderators believe that the geophysical prognosis doesn’t bode well for Chile, and a number of other countries, especially those  on the PRF,  for at least the next 3  years.

On January 2, Fire-Earth forecast 2010 Likely the Most Disastrous Year on Record. See also 2010 Disaster Calender- Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters.

Related Links:

Related Images:

Posted in chile, chile earthquake, Megaquake, tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

The Great Southern California ShakeOut

Posted by feww on February 21, 2010

Facilitating Corporate War Against Nature

‘Scientific Mandate’ Helps Corporment* Technicians Alienate Scared Audiences from Nature

In the same way “BERT DUCKS and Covers” helped to fan the flames of Cold War, the “Great Southern California Shakeout”  and its  “drop, cover and hold on” one-liner are engineering public alienation from nature on behalf of the Corporment.

The enemy has changed, from the old Cold war Adversary, Soviet Union, to Mother Nature, but the tried and tested mantra has remained the same: “Our lifestyle is not negotiable [sic.]“

The Corporment can’t afford having large numbers of people going around worrying about how to protect nature against their usual business.

*[Corporment = Government ruled by corporate interests]

Ever Heard of ‘Duck and Cover’?

Now, it’s:  “drop, cover and hold on”

And be sure to recite a prayer for the earthquake dead …

The following is a public information notice:

Great Southern California Shakeout results provide new communication strategies

Researchers who devised the largest earthquake preparedness event ever undertaken in the United States say one of the biggest challenges was translating devastation projections from a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 San Andreas Fault temblor into timely, usable information to the more than 5 million California participants in 2008.

Known as the Great Southern California Shakeout, the event was designed by more than 300 experts in fields including earth sciences, engineering, policy, economics and public health, said University of Colorado at Boulder Research Professor Keith Porter, who coordinated estimates of physical damages in the scenario. He said the interests of the scientists — including high-tech research and state-of-the-art projections — did not always coincide with concerns of the general public and emergency preparedness planners looking for timely, simple information on issues.

“One of the biggest challenges of the ShakeOut was to get scientists to speak the language of citizens,” said Porter of CU-Boulder’s civil, environmental and architectural engineering department. “While many researchers were concerned about advancing the state of science through different modeling scenarios and debate, the citizens made it clear to us they needed the big picture.”

Porter gave a presentation on the subject at the 2010 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science held Feb. 18-22 in San Diego. Porter’s talk was part of a session titled “Earthquake Science and Advocacy: Helping Californians Live Along the San Andreas Fault.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut event was led by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Pushing the limits of science, including efforts like the ShakeOut, almost invariably creates a lack of consensus among scientists that can cause confusion in the public sector leading to “ambiguity aversion” — a preference by people to deal with known risks and to avoid dealing with risks where there is significant disagreement about the level of uncertainty, said Porter. “We found these people needed a single, discreet, story, which led us to explore and present what we thought was a single, realistic outcome of the hypothetical earthquake, as opposed to a discussion of possible outcomes.”

The 2008 ShakeOut scenario and a follow-up 2009 ShakeOut exercise involving more than 5 million Californians participating in “drop, cover and hold on” earthquake drills and other family, school and organizational emergency plans were huge successes, causing the USGS and collaborators to make the ShakeOut an annual event, Porter said. “Our hope is the activities undertaken by participants will become second nature,” he said. “In a sense it is similar to people taking CPR courses annually to keep up to speed.”

The USGS team that created the ShakeOut is now creating an emergency preparedness scenario known as ARkStorm to simulate the outcome of a series of massive West Coast storms similar to those that pounded California in 1861 and 1862. Those storms lasted for 45 days, flooded vast areas of northern and southern California, submerged a swath of the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys 300 miles long and up to 60 miles wide and inundated large areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties.

Such storms draw heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming “atmospheric rivers” that cause damage on the same scale of earthquakes and are projected to become more intense as a result of climate change, said Porter. Porter is leading the ARkStorm team that is assessing the potential outcome from such a storm in terms of physical damages, repair costs and the restoration time for buildings, dams, levees, harbors, bridges, roads, water supply systems and electric power.

Contact: Keith Porter
Keith.Porter@Colorado.edu
303-492-2732
University of Colorado at Boulder

YOU can be smart like Bert, but you need a shelter on your back, too!

Skeptics could order their own personal earthquake-proof shelter from the nearest branch of [name and address withheld :)]


Brewster Body Armor offers some protection, but is more mobile than the mobile shelter! Source: Flickr


Mobile Shelter. Be sure to duck your head down and under the shelter when the earthquake strikes! Source: Flickr


And there’s protection for your pooch, too … Source: Flickr

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake drill, Sacramento, San Andreas Fault, San Joaquin, U.S. Geological Survey | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Cayman Islands Region

Posted by feww on January 20, 2010

Earthquake Measuring up to 6.1 Mw Strikes Near Cayman Islands

Strong earthquake measuring up to M6.1 struck offshore near Cayman Islands about 70 km (45 miles) ESE of George Town,  Cayman Islands and about 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince 8 days ago. The quake struck at a depth of about 10km on January 19, 2010 at 14:24 UTC.

Tsunami Report

There were no report of a tsunami in the area caused by this event.

Damage Report

The earthquake reportedly shook buildings in George town but there was no report of damage or injuries.

Previous Quakes

Grand Cayman was struck by a 6.8 Mw earthquake on December 14, 2004, three months after Hurricane Ivan had already raked the island. However, the quake caused only minor structural damage to some buildings.

FEWW Earthquake Forecast:

The Gonave Microplate, near the boundaries of which this earthquake occurred, could produce more seismicity in 2010, with possibly another powerful quake measuring 7.4 to 7.6Mw striking its southern boundary.  Kingston, Jamaica could experience a powerful quake with a probability of 65 percent.

10-degree Map Centered at 20°N,80°W


Earthquake Location map.
Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. (Click Images to enlarge).


Seismic Hazard Map showing the west side  end of
the Gonave Microplate. USGS/EHP. Click image to enlarge.


Seismic Hazard Map of Haiti Region showing the east side of the Gonave Microplate, which is sandwiched between the North American and the Caribbean Plates .Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 5.8 [EQ magnitude estimated by FEWW: 6.1 Mw - USGS/EHP routinely downgrades earthquakes by about 0.3 Mw]
  • Date-Time:
    • Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:38 UTC
    • Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:38 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 19.020°N, 80.779°W
  • Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
  • Region: CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
  • Distances:
    • 70 km (45 miles) ESE of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
    • 305 km (190 miles) WNW of Montego Bay, Jamaica
    • 345 km (215 miles) S of Cienfuegos, Cuba
    • 750 km (465 miles) S of Miami, Florida
    • 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince on January 12, 2010
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 4.2 km (2.6 miles); depth fixed by location program
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2010rrbc

Related Links:

Posted in Cayman Islands quake, Cienfuegos, eathquakes, George Town earthquake, Haiti earthquake, Montego Bay | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Solomon Isles Tsunami Destroyed Several Villages

Posted by feww on January 5, 2010

UPDATED Jan 6, 2010

Solomon Isles villages destroyed by tsunami, 9 additional aftershocks strike region

As of posting, at least three villages on Solomon Isles are believed to have been destroyed or damaged by a tsunami, 9 additional aftershocks, 8 of which measured greater than M5.0, have struck near the epicenter of the mainshock.

Main Entry: Powerful Earthquakes Strike Solomon Islands


Deep scars on the hillside caused by Monday’s mainshock  in the Western Province of the Solomon Islands. Credit: Regional Assistance Mission To Solomon Islands (handout via Reuters).

  • The mainshock which struck  on Sunday, January 03, 2010 at 22:37 UTC generated a 3-m high,  destructive tsunami.
  • The tsunami slammed on the shores of Rendova Island and neighboring Tetepare Island at about 9:30 am local time on Monday (UTC + 11:00 Hours)
  • At least 3 villages have been devastated, or damaged.
  • Up to 70 homes on Baniata village on Rendova Island were reported as destroyed or damaged.
  • The final damage toll may be much higher, local authorities said.
  • No death or injuries reported because tsunami occurred during the day and the residents managed to flee to higher grounds.
  • 9 additional aftershocks, 8 of which measured greater than M5.0, have struck near the epicenter of the mainshock.
  • The largest of the aftershocks measured up to 6.4Mw, and struck at a depth of about 35km some 35 km  SE of Gizo (8.346°S, 157.067°E), New Georgia Islands, Solomon Isles on Monday, January 04, 2010 at 11:28 UTC.
  • The latest aftershocks sent frightened villagers in the Western province of Solomon Islands again running to higher grounds fearing another tsunami.
  • Landslides were reported on Rendova and Tetepari islands.
  • Seven fishermen are reported missing.
  • No serious injuries reported.
  • About a third of the island of Rendova’s population of 3,500 people have been affected after more than 200 “houses” were destroyed.

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake, earthquake 2010, Gizo, Solomon tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Earthquake Alert

Posted by feww on December 17, 2009

FEWW EarthModel shows a massive  buildup of earthquake stress energy in southern Italy/ Sicily region

The energy buildup could lead to an earthquake measuring up to 8.4 Mw.

Related Links:

Posted in Campi Flegrei, earthquake, Etna, stromboli, volcano | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Moderate Earthquake, Massive Damage, Yunnan, China

Posted by feww on November 4, 2009

Quake measuring 5 on Richter scale rocked Western Yunnan, destroying about 600 houses and damaging up to 18,000 others

The earthquake occurred in western Yunnan about 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali at a depth of 35 km (21.7 miles) early Monday local time.

The tremor has affected 302,000 people, with 31 injured and 61,000 relocated, but no deaths were reported so far, China’s official news agency Xinhua said. “The quake flattened 579 houses and damaged another 17,400.”

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs has sent tents, war clothing, and rice to the victims, Xinhua added.

According to other reports, about 400 livestock, including pigs, sheep and chicken had been killed in the quake.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,100°E

EQ Loc Map
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 4.9 Mw
  • Date-Time: Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 21:07:23 UTC    [Monday, November 02, 2009 at 05:07:23 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 25.919°N, 100.748°E
  • Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
  • Region: YUNNAN, CHINA
  • Distances:
    • 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali, Yunnan, China
    • 120 km (75 miles) SW of Panzhihua (Dukou), Sichuan, China
    • 700 km (435 miles) SW of Chongqing, Chongqing, China
    • 2130 km (1320 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009nla2

Seismic Hazard Map

DALI 1-nov-Seis haz 2009 neic_nla2_w
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

Posted in Beijing, China quake, chinese Govt, Earthquake Hazard, seismicity report | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Recent Earthquakes ≥ 6.0 Mw

Posted by feww on October 13, 2009

FEWW list of earthquakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw that occurred between 7 – 12 October 2009

Source of the initial data: USGS/EHP; maximum quake magnitudes estimated by FEWW.]

Earthquakes tables - energy released
The total amount of energy released by the above quakes was the equivalent of the energy released by about 3,830 Hiroshima A-Bombs. [Click image to enlarge.]

Notes:
1. About 52 percent of the total energy released during the listed events came from the Vanuatu earthquake measuring 8.2 Mw.

2. A combined total of 89 percent of the energy released came from the two earthquakes highlighted in shades of blue, measuring 8.2 and 8.1 Mw respectively.

Related Links:

Posted in Alaska quake, Alaska quake forecast, Aleutian Islands quake, Halmahera quake, KURIL ISLANDS quake, maximum quake magnitudes, santa cruz islands quake, vanuatu quake | Tagged: , , , , | 19 Comments »

Strong Earthquake Strikes Taiwan

Posted by feww on October 4, 2009

Strong Earthquake Measuring up to 6.4Mw Strikes East Coast of Taiwan

Strong earthquake measuring up to 6.4 Mw struck off the east coast of Taiwan at a depth of 17.5 km on Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36 UTC.

As the quake occurred, Typhoon Parma was reported heading towards the southeastern coast of Taiwan still reeling from the aftermath of typhoon Morakot that  struck the island in August, killing more than 1000 people.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,120°E

Taiwan 4-10-09
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

USGS/EHP has downgraded this quake to a magnitude 6.1 shock.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 6.1 [possibly measuring up to 6.4Mw - Moderator]
  • Date-Time:
    • Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36:05 UTC
    • Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 01:36:05 AM at epicenter
  • Location 23.635°N, 121.565°E
  • Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
  • Region TAIWAN
  • Distances
    • 35 km (25 miles) S of Hua-lien, Taiwan
    • 110 km (65 miles) ESE of T’ai-chung, Taiwan
    • 110 km (70 miles) NNE of T’ai-tung, Taiwan
    • 160 km (100 miles) S of T’AI-PEI, Taiwan
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles); depth +/- 5 km (3.1 miles)
  • Parameters NST= 97, Nph= 97, Dmin=38.4 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009mhcf

Related Links:

Posted in Climate Change, human enhanced catastrophes, T'ai-tung quake, T'AI-PEI, Typhoon Morakot | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Earthquakes: Human Enhanced Disasters – UPDATE 2 Oct 2009

Posted by feww on October 2, 2009

Sumatra Double Earthquakes

FEWW Moderators believe it’s highly probable that another 2 or more strong to powerful quakes could strike the region in the coming days. Padang and other coastal towns in Sumatra and Java must also prepare for a possible tsunami.

At least 1,200 bodies have been recovered following widespread damage after a magnitude 7.9 quake  struck southern Sumatra, Indonesia, on Wednesday, according to the officials.

The Death Toll Could Reach Many Thousands


There are no reports of deaths from the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck southern Sumatra  on Thursday. However. a local radio station reported that a dozen 12 people had been injured and up to 75 building damaged in  the town of Jambi.

“People are trapped and screaming for help but they are below huge slabs which will take heavy equipment to move,” an aid worker said.

“I saw dozens of the biggest buildings collapsed in town. Most of the damage is concentrated in the commercial center market, which was fully packed,” he said.

Images that will be repeated throughout the world, again, and again

sdq more dead bodies
Residents stand near the bodies of earthquake victims at a hospital in Padang on Indonesia’s Sumatra
island October 1, 2009.  REUTERS/Muhammad Fitrah/Singgalang Newspaper

Regional Economy

West Sumatra, a major producer of crude palm oil, is also affected economically.

Indonesia’s finance minister Sri Mulyani said: “This region has been damaged seriously, including its infrastructure,” adding that her government has allocated $25 million over two month for emergency operations.

Related Links:

Posted in Jambi, Padang Quake, palm oil production, Southern Sumatra quake, Sri Mulyani, sumatra quake | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Powerful Earthquake Strikes Southern Sumatra, Indonesia

Posted by feww on September 30, 2009

More Megaquakes May Strike PRF Anytime

Magnitude 7.9 earthquake strikes southern Sumatra, Indonesia

Magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck southern Sumatra, Indonesia, 50 km (30 miles) WNW of Padang, at a depth  of about 85 km on Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 10:16 UTC, USGS/EHP reported.

Only hours ago, having briefly analyzed details of the Samoan earthquake, FEWW had foretasted that up to 3 more powerful quakes could strike the Pacific Ring of Fire in 2009.

Four weeks ago a deadly earthquake measuring  7.3 to 7.6 Mw struck off the coast of Java, Indonesia, killing more than 80 people and injuring at least another 1,250.

Tsunami Warning

Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (NOAA) has issued a tsunami warning based on the size and location of the earthquake for countries bordering Indian Ocean: Indonesia, India, Thailand and Malaysia.

Damage Report

“People are panicking. They are running out of the buildings… There are many collapsed buildings,” an eye-witness in Padang told a local TV station.

“Hundreds of houses have been damaged along the road. There are some fires, bridges are cut and there is extreme panic here maybe because water pipes are broken and there is flooding in the streets,” another witness told Reuters.

“Hundreds of houses have been damaged along the road,” another eye-witness in Padang said.

“There are some fires, bridges are cut and there is extreme panic here maybe because water pipes are broken and there is flooding in the streets.”

Padang has a population of just under 1,000,000 people. There were no reports of casualties as of posting; however, given that so many buildings have collapsed, it’s more than likely that many people would have been killed or injured.

According to a local report, power and phone lines are down in Pandang and several other parts of Indonesia.

The mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock measuring 6.0  GFZ Potsdam/ Earthquake Bulletin reported. More strong aftershocks are highly probable.

10-degree Map Centered at 0°N,100°E

Southern Sumatara - 30 September 2009
Earthquake Location Map.
Source USGS/EHP

GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
Region:     Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
Time:     2009-09-30 10:16:10.4 UTC
Magnitude:     7.8
Epicenter:     99.87°E   0.80°S
Depth:     84 km
Status:     manually revised

Earthquake Details (according to USGS)

  • Magnitude: 7.9
  • Date-Time:
    • Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 10:16:10 UTC
    • Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 05:16:10 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 0.797°S, 99.925°E
  • Depth: 85 km (52.8 miles)
  • Region: SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
    Distances:

    • 50 km (30 miles) WNW of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 225 km (140 miles) SW of Pekanbaru, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 475 km (295 miles) SSW of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
    • 960 km (600 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 10.6 km (6.6 miles); depth +/- 16.1 km (10.0 miles)
    Parameters:  NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=523.2 km, Rmss=1.44 sec, Gp= 47°,   M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009mebz

Related Links:

Posted in Indian Ocean tsunami, Indonesia tsunami, large earthquakes, megaquakes, sumatra tsunami | Tagged: , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Samoa Tsunami Update

Posted by feww on September 30, 2009

Samoa Tsunami: Images and Update

The tsunami occurred after a  massive earthquake measuring up to 8.4 Mw struck in the Samoa Islands Region about 185 km (115 miles) east-northeast of Hihifo, Tonga and 195 km (125 miles) south  of APIA, Samoa.

According to various reports

  • A series of of three or more tsunamis struck into the Pacific islands of American and Western Samoa destroying villages
  • At least 4 villages were wiped off.
  • Dozens of people, including many children, were  swept out to sea
  • As many as 100 people have been killed, with many hundred more injured
  • U.S. President Obama has declared American Samoa a major disaster area
  • A 4-meter (13-foot) wave hit the  northern coast of Tonga.
  • A Pacific-wide tsunami warning was issued, but later canceled.
  • Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a local tsunami warning for its east coast, warning of a possible tsunami waves measuring up to 50cm.
  • The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center later reported that small tsunami waves had indeed reached Hawaii, and warned swimmers and boats that the waves could prove dangerous.
  • Several  South Pacific island nations reported rising sea levels.

Samoa tsunami
Formerly Leone village, American Samoa. Photograph: Ardie Roque/EPA. Image may be subject to copyright.

Cont…

  • The southern section of American Samoa’s main Tutuila island  was “devastated,” its governor said, with at least 24 people  killed and twice as many injured.
  • As video images come in,  the extent of the damage becomes more evident with homes destroyed by the waves, large fishing boats hurled ashore, and vehicles piled on top of each other.
  • “Some areas have been flattened and the tsunami brought a lot of sand onshore, so there have been reports the sand has covered some of the bodies,” Western Samoa’s disaster management office said.
  • “They are still continuing the searches for any missing bodies in the area,” they said, adding that the southern section of their country’s main island of Upolu was the worst hit.

samoa under water
A section of Fagatogo, Tutuila Island, Pago Pago Harbor, American Samoa, is seen inundated after the tsunami struck. Photograph: Fili Sagapolutele/APImage may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

Posted in Earthquake news, Samoa earthquake, Samoa Islands Region, samoa quake, The Largest Earthquake, TONGA REGION | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Magnitude 8.3 Quake Strikes Samoa Islands Region

Posted by feww on September 29, 2009

Up to 3 More Large EQs Could Strike the Pacific Ring of Fire in 2009

The Next Megaquake May Strike New Zealand

Massive Earthquake Measuring up to 8.4 Mw Strikes Samoa Islands Region

The mainshock occurred on Tuesday, September 29, 2009 at 17:48 UTC [Tuesday, September 29, 2009 at 06:48 AM at epicenter,] which struck at striking at a depth of about 10km.  The mainshock has since been  followed by at least two dozen aftershocks both locally and in the neighboring Tonga region, the largest of which measures 6.2 Mw so far.

Tsunami

The large earthquake generated  1.6-meter  waves in American Samoa, Apia and Pago Pago. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (NOAA/NWS/PTWC) issued a tsunami warning which has since been canceled.

According to local news, at least 4 villages were wiped off, leaving more than 40 dead and up to a 100 injured. Most of the casualties are believe to be children. More casualties are expected as local reports are received.

How large was this earthquake?

The GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin reported the mainshock as M 8.2, while the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center recorded it as 8.1Mw. However, FEWW believes the quake measured up to 8.4Mw.

On June 26, 1917, a magnitude 8.4 earthquake struck the neighboring Tonga region at a depth of about 25km, some 115 km northwest of today’s event.

Tsunami Location Map


Click on image to enlarge
. Source NOAA

This advisory is in effect for California, and Oregon

  • A tsunami advisory indicates a tsunami which may produce strong currents and is dangerous to those in or very near the water is expected.
  • Large inundations are not expected in areas under advisory status.
  • Advisories will be cancelled, extended, or upgraded to a warning depending on the event severity.
  • Advisories are issued when the expected tsunami amplitude is in the range of 0.3 to 1 meter.

Tsunami Propagation Map


Click on image to enlarge.
Source: NOAA/WCATWC

US Tsunami waves initial arrival times

tsunami trvel time table
Tsunami waves initial arrival times including wave amplitude above sea level (ASL) at the US coastal areas.


Click  on image to enlarge. Source NOAA

Tsunami Travel Time Map

tsunami trvel time
Tsunami Travel Time Map. Source NOAA/NGDC. Click on image to enlarge.

Map of Tsunami Advisory – Japan

JMA sunami advisory
Map of Tsunami Advisory  for  Japan. Yellow highlights indicate tsunami heights of about 0.5m (50cm). Original Map: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright. Click on image to enlarge.

Earthquake Details

GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
Region: Samoa Islands Region
Time: 2009-09-29 17:48:10.3 UTC
Magnitude: 8.2
Epicenter: 172.04°W 15.49°S
Depth: 10 km
Status: manually revised

Samoa Island Region gfz2009tceh
© Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ

USGS downgraded the mainshock to 8.0Mw.

10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,170°W

Samoan Islands USGS
Earthquake Location Map. Original Map: USGS. Enhanced by FEWW.

Historic Seismicity (Mag 7 or greater EQs since 1900)

hiseis samoan Islands quake 29-09-09
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Original Image: USGS. Enhanced by FEWW.

Related Links:

Posted in APIA quake, APIA tsunami, Earthquakes, Hihifo quake, NUKUALOFA, tsunami hazard | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

6th Strong Quake Strikes Near Ryukyu Isles, Japan

Posted by feww on September 29, 2009

6 to 8 more EQs may yet strike region

Magnitude 5.9 quake strikes near Ryukyu Islands, close to Iwo-Tori-Shima Volcano

Strong earthquake measuring 5.9 Mw struck near Ryukyu Islands, Japan region, at a depth of 10 km on September 28, 2009 at about 19:23 UTC, USGS EHP reported.

The quake struck about 200 km (125 miles) north of Naha, Okinawa, Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency reported an aftershock measuring 4.3 Mw at 07:48 local time (22:48 UTC). JMA issued NO tsunami warning after the mainshock.

This quake was in line with FEWW forecast made on August 17, 2009.

10-degree Map Centered at 30°N,130°E

Magnitude 5.9 - RYUKYU ISLANDS 28 sep 2009
Earthquake Location Map. Source of the original map: USGS. Map enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 5.9
  • Date-Time: Monday, September 28, 2009 at 19:22:57 UTC  [Tuesday, September 29, 2009 at 04:22:57 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 27.943°N, 127.867°E
  • Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
  • Region: RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
  • Distances:
    • 200 km (125 miles) N of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
    • 480 km (300 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, Japan
    • 535 km (335 miles) NE of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan
    • 1410 km (880 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 7.1 km (4.4 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009mcbr

Related Links:

Posted in Japan earthquake foecast, Japan quakes, Japan quakes 2009, Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, tokyo quake forecast, tsunami warning | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Off the Coast Mexico

Posted by feww on September 24, 2009

Magnitude 6.4 Earthquake Strikes Off the Coast of Jalisco,Mexico

Strong earthquake measuring 6.4 Mw struck off SW of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, at a depth of 35 km, on Thursday,  September 24, 2009, at 07:16 UTC, USGS/EHP reported.

This event will almost certainly affect the outcome of the FEWW northern California earthquake forecast.

The earthquake was preceded by a foreshock measuring 5.6Mw which occurred on Friday,  September 18,  2009, at 18:46 UTC.

FEWW Comments: This earthquake may have primed for eruption either one or both of two volcanoes Bárcena, which forms the island of San Benedicto, and Socorro, located on island of the same name, about 380 km to the west of the EQ location.

10-degree Map Centered at 20°N,105°W

OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO - MEXICO
EQ Location Map. Source: USGS

This Earthquake:

  • Magnitude: 6.4
  • Date/Time: Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 07:16:24 UTC [Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 12:16:24 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 18.992°N, 107.350°W
  • Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
  • Region: OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
  • Distances:
    • 285 km (175 miles) SW of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
    • 315 km (195 miles) W of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico
    • 325 km (200 miles) WSW of Autlan, Jalisco, Mexico
    • 855 km (530 miles) W of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 6.5 km (4.0 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009lyat

The associated Press quoted the USGS as follows:

The U.S. Geological survey says the temblor struck about 170 miles (275 kilometers) southwest of Puerto Vallarta at 0716 GMT (3:16 a.m. EDT) Thursday. It occurred at a depth of about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers).

Tsunami Bulletin:

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
Issued the following at 07:28UTC 24 SEP 2009

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME –  0716Z 24 SEP 2009
COORDINATES –  19.1 NORTH  107.3 WEST
DEPTH       –   10 KM
LOCATION    –  OFF COAST OF JALISCO  MEXICO
MAGNITUDE   –  6.7

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER – EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

Related Links:


Posted in baja calif, Baja peninsula, Colima earthquake, Jalisco foreshock, Manzanillo earthquake, Mexico City | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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