Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response could occur by early 2016

Posts Tagged ‘earthquake’

Beerenberg Volcano Could Explode

Posted by feww on May 25, 2012

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: Beerenberg Volcano on Jan Mayen Island Could Erupt Explosively [P≥ 64%]

The 2,280-m stratovolcano located on Jan Mayen Island could erupt this year with a probability of at least 64 percent.

The 6.2Mw earthquake (72.994°N, 5.651°E; 8.8 km; Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 22:47:46 UTC) and its subsequent aftershocks that occurred in the Norwegian Sea may have primed the volcano for an explosive eruption.


Jan Mayen Island (71°N 8°30′W) featuring Beerenberg Volcano. Source: Jan Mayen

Jan Mayen (Norway) is a volcanic island  located in the north Atlantic Ocean, some 950km west of Norway and 600 km north of Iceland. The view of the island is dominated by the active volcano Beerenberg (2,280m), which last erupted in 1985, emitting an estimated total of about 2  x 107 m3 of lava and other volcanic matter.

Earthquake and Volcano Links

Posted in volcano alert, volcano eruption, Volcano Watch, volcanoes | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

M8.2 Aftershock Follows Mega Quake Off Sumatra

Posted by feww on April 11, 2012

Large aftershock strikes Off the Coast of Sumatra

More than a dozen significant aftershocks have occurred off the coast of Sumatra, the largest of which measured 8.2Mw, according to USGS/EHP.


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

EQ Details

  • Magnitude 8.2
  • Date-Time:  Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 10:43:09 UTC
  • Location: 0.773°N, 92.452°E
  • Depth: 16.4 km (10.2 miles)
  • Distances:
    • 618 km (384 miles) SSW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 712 km (442 miles) W of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 1,062 km (659 miles) WSW of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
    • 1,773 km (1,101 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
  • Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 14.2 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 6.4 km (4.0 miles)
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Tsunami Alert

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 005
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1151Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

... A MAJOR AFTERSHOCK OCCURRED AT 1043Z WITH MAGNITUDE 8.3 ...

... THE WATCH AREA IS NOW REDUCED ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / SRI LANKA / MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 TRINCONMALEE LK       8.6N  81.2E  1116Z   0.04M /  0.1FT  18MIN
 COCOS ISLAND AU      12.1S  96.9E  1102Z   0.08M /  0.3FT  18MIN
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  1045Z   0.19M /  0.6FT  10MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0912Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0933Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0944Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1025Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1037Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1150Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1200Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1326Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1333Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1015Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1045Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1050Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1134Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1204Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1204Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1339Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1605Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1636Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1049Z 11 APR
                  DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1054Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1121Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1235Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1144Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1149Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1214Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1202Z 11 APR

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in sumatra quake | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Tectonics Update – January 28

Posted by feww on January 28, 2012

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  • Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
  • Probability of Occurrence
    • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
    • Jun -  Nov 2012: 68%
    • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
    • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
  • Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

Related Links

Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Posted by feww on June 12, 2011

SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,739 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

FIRE-EARTH Models show that global disasters could intensify in the 9 month period starting about July 2011 compared with the previous corresponding period (pcp).

Disaster Calendar 2011 – June 12 Entry

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • China. Death toll from heavy rain, flooding and landslides in central and southern china has climbed to at least 100, with about 80 others reported missing, reports said. The extreme weather events have affected up to 10 million people in 13 provinces, destroying about half million hectares of crops.
  • NY, USA. The WH has declared 21 upstate New York counties as disaster areas because of the damage caused by storms, flooding and tornadoes from April 26 to May 8.  The declaration covers the following counties: Allegany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton, Delaware, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Herkimer, Lewis, Madison, Niagara, Oneida, Onondaga, Ontario, Steuben, Tioga, Ulster, Warren, and Yates.
  • North Dakota, USA. A presidential disaster declaration has been issued for major portions of North Dakota including a  total of 42 counties, the Spirit Lake Nation, the Three Affiliated Tribes and the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa reservations. Counties covered by the declaration included Barnes, Benson, Billings, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Divide, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Grant, Griggs, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Nelson, Pembina, Pierce, Ramsey, Ransom, Renville, Richland, Rolette, Sargent, Sheridan, Steele, Stutsman, Towner, Traill, Walsh, Ward, Wells and Williams.
  • South Dakota, USA. Yankton county has been added to SD flooding federal disaster list, which already included Aurora, Beadle, Brookings, Brown, Buffalo, Clark, Codington, Day, Edmunds, Faulk, Grant, Hamlin, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, Jackson, Jerauld, Kingsbury, Lake, Marshall, Miner, Moody, Perkins, Potter, Roberts, Sanborn, Spink Stanley Sully and Union counties.
  • China. Some 103 children aged 14 or younger have been seriously poisoned and hundreds of others sickened from lead pollution in eastern china, a report said. The victims were found to have every high levels of lead contamination in their blood.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

Places Most at Risk of Nuclear DisastersGlobal

Nuclear power is harmful to the planet and all lifeforms. Any nuclear disaster striking anywhere on the planet has global implications.

Currently 32 countries operate nuclear power plants, 27 of which are building even more reactor units. Fifteen other countries that are currently without nuclear power  plan to build one or more plants.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (865)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, France, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

NOTES:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each place, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-induced catastrophes such as war, as well as human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… , and other geophysical events.]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which those factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecasts.

Related Links

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Links

Posted in sixth great Extinction | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Peru Earthquake Warning

Posted by feww on March 5, 2010

Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru

Fire-Earth’s EarthModel simulations indicate that a large earthquake could occur in Peru.

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake, earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, Peru Earthquake Forecast, peru-chile trench, seismic hazard warning | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Chile Earthquake and Tsunami Update 1 (28 Feb)

Posted by feww on February 28, 2010

Death Toll reaches 309 and Rising

8.8 Megaquake destroys houses, buildings, hospitals, bridges, roads and other structures

The Chile M8.8 quake released about 180 times more energy than the recent Haiti quake (estimated at 7.3Mw). Up to 70 medium to powerful aftershocks measuring M5.0 to M7.0 have been reported by USGS and other EQ monitoring centers

Chilean government has declared 6 regions as “zones of catastrophe,” but has made no formal request for international aid as yet.

Power and telephone lines are down throughout most of Chile making the flow of information extremely difficult [Other countries are advised to revise their communication systems]

  • Water lines are cut off in most parts of the country.
  • Many deaths are reported in Maule near the epicenter, as well as in the regions of  Araucania,  Biobio,  O’Higgins,  Santiago and Valparaiso, some of the places where powerful aftershocks occurred.
  • In Santiago, capital of Chile, at least a dozen large building have collapse killing more than 15 people (the death toll could rise).
  • About 200 people were caught inside an apartment block which collapsed  in the major city of Concepcion, the closest to the epicenter, and officials said they had no idea if anyone escaped, according to news reports.
  • A chemical plant near Santiago has caught fire forcing the authorities to evacuate several thousand people from the neighborhood.
  • Santiago International airport has been damaged and will be closed for at least a week.


Freeze frame from a local TV report shows  a building in Concepcion that caught fire as a result of the earthquake.

The international airport in Santiago, the Chilean capital, located about 320km (200 miles) north of the epicenter, was  closed as the megaquake caused damage to some roads and building facades.

A strong M6.3 aftershock in Salta, Argentina killed at least 2 people last night, officials said.


Rescue workers search for victims and survivors after an apartment complex collapsed during an earthquake in Concepcion some 100 km (62 miles) south of the epicenter, February 27, 2010.  Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra. Image may be subject to copyright. For more image images, click links in the Related Images section below.

The megaquake was the fifth-largest seismic event since 1900.   Chile was also the scene of the largest earthquake in the world  which measured 9.5Mw, which killed  1,655 people and injure 3,000 others, leaving about 2,000,000 homeless.

The tsunami generated by the 1960 quake  caused 61 deaths and $75 million damage in Hawaii [most of the damage occurred at Hilo, with the runup height reaching 10.6 m.] Several hundred other people in Japan and the Philippines were also killed or reported missing as a result of the destructive tsunami.


Collapsed highway Near Santiago.  Vehicles driving along a highway that collapsed during the megaquake were thrown on the road below on Saturday. Photo Credit:  Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notie.

Tsunami

Japan is bracing for a possible tsunami wave of 3m (10ft) or higher that could strike the Pacific coast of Hokkaido at about 13:00JST  (04:00 UTC).


Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Tsunami Forecast Map.  Image may be subject to copyright.

  • Major Tsunami is marked in RED: Tsunami height is expected to be 3 meters or higher.
  • Tsunami is marked in YELLOW: Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters.
  • Tsunami Advisory: Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters.

Japanese government has ordered thousands of residents on coastal areas to evacuate to higher grounds.

A tsunami generated by the megaquake overwhelmed the port of Talcahuano, a major port in southern Chile, causing substantial damage to the harbor and the boats, and flooding streets.

A huge wave swept the Juan Fernandez islands, President Michelle Bachelet was reported as saying. The wave reportedly 7, with at least a dozen more islanders reported missing, according to a local officials.

Hawaii recorded tsunami surges of up to 12 inches about half an hour later than oceanographers had forecast, according to an official with the Hawaii County Civil Defense. Some officials had predicted that the waves would be as high as 4.8m (14 feet) despite the freely available tsunami ADVISORY reports.

In French Polynesia, a 1.8m (6 ft ) high wave swept ashore. As of posting,  there was no reports of casualties or damage. However,  casualties and damage will most probably occur.

A 1.7m was observed at Valparaiso, west of Santiago, and reports of more damage are expected.

In Australia, a tsunami wave measuring 50cm (1.6 feet) was reported off Norfolk Island, about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles ) northeast of Sydney.

On Chatham Islands, NZ officials reported a 2-meter high wave striking the coast. About a thousand people in the coastal cities of Gisborne and Napier in the  North Island were reportedly evacuated from low-lying areas.

In Tonga, there were reports of a 2.2-meter (6.6 feet) high wave sweeping an unnamed small northern island, an official said.

In the Philippines the officials said they were expecting a 1-meter high wave later this afternoon local time.

Socioeconomic Aftershocks

President Michelle Bachelet has said that two million Chileans have been affected by the Saturday’s Megaquake. Her estimate is realistic.

Thousands of people in Argentina may have also been affected.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W (USGS)


Latest EQ Location map.
Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Fire-Earth Moderators believe that the geophysical prognosis doesn’t bode well for Chile, and a number of other countries, especially those  on the PRF,  for at least the next 3  years.

On January 2, Fire-Earth forecast 2010 Likely the Most Disastrous Year on Record. See also 2010 Disaster Calender- Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters.

Related Links:

Related Images:

Posted in chile, chile earthquake, Megaquake, tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

The Great Southern California ShakeOut

Posted by feww on February 21, 2010

Facilitating Corporate War Against Nature

‘Scientific Mandate’ Helps Corporment* Technicians Alienate Scared Audiences from Nature

In the same way “BERT DUCKS and Covers” helped to fan the flames of Cold War, the “Great Southern California Shakeout”  and its  “drop, cover and hold on” one-liner are engineering public alienation from nature on behalf of the Corporment.

The enemy has changed, from the old Cold war Adversary, Soviet Union, to Mother Nature, but the tried and tested mantra has remained the same: “Our lifestyle is not negotiable [sic.]“

The Corporment can’t afford having large numbers of people going around worrying about how to protect nature against their usual business.

*[Corporment = Government ruled by corporate interests]

Ever Heard of ‘Duck and Cover’?

Now, it’s:  “drop, cover and hold on”

And be sure to recite a prayer for the earthquake dead …

The following is a public information notice:

Great Southern California Shakeout results provide new communication strategies

Researchers who devised the largest earthquake preparedness event ever undertaken in the United States say one of the biggest challenges was translating devastation projections from a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 San Andreas Fault temblor into timely, usable information to the more than 5 million California participants in 2008.

Known as the Great Southern California Shakeout, the event was designed by more than 300 experts in fields including earth sciences, engineering, policy, economics and public health, said University of Colorado at Boulder Research Professor Keith Porter, who coordinated estimates of physical damages in the scenario. He said the interests of the scientists — including high-tech research and state-of-the-art projections — did not always coincide with concerns of the general public and emergency preparedness planners looking for timely, simple information on issues.

“One of the biggest challenges of the ShakeOut was to get scientists to speak the language of citizens,” said Porter of CU-Boulder’s civil, environmental and architectural engineering department. “While many researchers were concerned about advancing the state of science through different modeling scenarios and debate, the citizens made it clear to us they needed the big picture.”

Porter gave a presentation on the subject at the 2010 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science held Feb. 18-22 in San Diego. Porter’s talk was part of a session titled “Earthquake Science and Advocacy: Helping Californians Live Along the San Andreas Fault.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut event was led by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Pushing the limits of science, including efforts like the ShakeOut, almost invariably creates a lack of consensus among scientists that can cause confusion in the public sector leading to “ambiguity aversion” — a preference by people to deal with known risks and to avoid dealing with risks where there is significant disagreement about the level of uncertainty, said Porter. “We found these people needed a single, discreet, story, which led us to explore and present what we thought was a single, realistic outcome of the hypothetical earthquake, as opposed to a discussion of possible outcomes.”

The 2008 ShakeOut scenario and a follow-up 2009 ShakeOut exercise involving more than 5 million Californians participating in “drop, cover and hold on” earthquake drills and other family, school and organizational emergency plans were huge successes, causing the USGS and collaborators to make the ShakeOut an annual event, Porter said. “Our hope is the activities undertaken by participants will become second nature,” he said. “In a sense it is similar to people taking CPR courses annually to keep up to speed.”

The USGS team that created the ShakeOut is now creating an emergency preparedness scenario known as ARkStorm to simulate the outcome of a series of massive West Coast storms similar to those that pounded California in 1861 and 1862. Those storms lasted for 45 days, flooded vast areas of northern and southern California, submerged a swath of the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys 300 miles long and up to 60 miles wide and inundated large areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties.

Such storms draw heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming “atmospheric rivers” that cause damage on the same scale of earthquakes and are projected to become more intense as a result of climate change, said Porter. Porter is leading the ARkStorm team that is assessing the potential outcome from such a storm in terms of physical damages, repair costs and the restoration time for buildings, dams, levees, harbors, bridges, roads, water supply systems and electric power.

Contact: Keith Porter
Keith.Porter@Colorado.edu
303-492-2732
University of Colorado at Boulder

YOU can be smart like Bert, but you need a shelter on your back, too!

Skeptics could order their own personal earthquake-proof shelter from the nearest branch of [name and address withheld :) ]


Brewster Body Armor offers some protection, but is more mobile than the mobile shelter! Source: Flickr


Mobile Shelter. Be sure to duck your head down and under the shelter when the earthquake strikes! Source: Flickr


And there’s protection for your pooch, too … Source: Flickr

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake drill, Sacramento, San Andreas Fault, San Joaquin, U.S. Geological Survey | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Earthquake Strikes Vanuatu

Posted by feww on January 29, 2010

Strong Earthquake Measuring Up to M6.3 Struck Vanuatu

The quake struck about 65 km (40 miles) NNE of Isangel, Tanna, Vanuatu, at a depth of about 85 km (52.8 miles) on Friday, January 29, 2010 at 09:20 UTC.

The mainshock  was preceded by a foreshock measuring up to 5.4Mw which occurred about an hour earlier.

There was no tsunami generated by the quakes, and as of posting no damage or casualties report was made.

Traitor’s Head and Yasur Volcanoes

Today’s main event occurred near Erromango Basin about 45 km SE of Traitor’s Head volcano and some 56 Km NNE of Yasur volcano and may well prove significant in any forthcoming activity at the two volcanoes.

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude as reported by USGS: 6.0 [Max EQ magnitude estimated by FEWW: 6.3 Mw]
  • Date-Time
    • Friday, January 29, 2010 at 09:20:04 UTC
    • Friday, January 29, 2010 at 08:20:04 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 19.039°S, 169.540°E
  • Depth: 85 km (52.8 miles)
  • Region VANUATU
  • Distances:
    • 65 km (40 miles) NNE of Isangel, Tanna, Vanuatu
    • 195 km (120 miles) SE of PORT-VILA, Efate, Vanuatu
    • 325 km (200 miles) NNE of Tadine, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia
    • 1935 km (1200 miles) ENE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 8.3 km (5.2 miles); depth +/- 6.7 km (4.2 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2010sbaw


Map of Vanuatu. Credit: M.Minderhoud. Click image to enlarge.


EQ Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.


EQ Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Edited and Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.

Seismic Hazard Map


Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP.Click image to enlarge.

Historic Seismicity


Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

Posted in Efate quake, Erromango Basin, Loyalty Islands, vanuatu earthquake, volcanism | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Strong Earthquake Strikes Nr Pandan Philippines

Posted by feww on January 28, 2010

Strong Earthquake Measuring Up to 6.3Mw Strikes Near Catanduanes Island Province, Philippines Islands

An earthquake measuring up to magnitude 6.3 struck about 140 km (90 miles) ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes Island Province, Philippines at an estimated  depth of 25 km on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 18:50 UTC

Mt Mayon
The earthquake struck about 193 km (120 miles) ENE of Mt Mayon and could potentially trigger the volcano for another round of unrest/activity. The quake followed two earlier shocks which struck the same area on January 21, 2010, with the larger event measuring up to 5.8Mw.

Damage/ Casualties
As of posting, there were no reports of damage or casualties.

Tsunami Report
The Hawaii Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not issue a tsunami warning, or watch.

FEWW Forecast: Fire-Earth Moderators believe a Mega-quake could strike in or around Philippines Islands.

10-degree Map Centered at 15°N,125°E


EQ Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude reported by USGS: 6.1 [Max EQ magnitude estimated by FEWW: 6.3 Mw]
  • Date-Time:
    • Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 18:49:33 UTC
    • Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 02:49:33 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 13.684°N, 125.440°E
  • Depth: 24.7 km (15.3 miles)
  • Region: PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
  • Distances:
    • 140 km (90 miles) ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes, Philippines
    • 190 km (120 miles) ENE of Legaspi, Luzon, Philippines
    • 200 km (125 miles) NNE of Calbayog, Samar, Philippines
    • 495 km (305 miles) ESE of MANILA, Philippines
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.6 km (4.7 miles); depth +/- 22.1 km (13.7 miles) (?)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2010rzbv

Historic Seismicity Since 1900

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.

Seismic Hazard Map

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION:
Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking [PDF]

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake forecast, Manila, Philippines quake, Seismic Hazard, shake map | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Haiti: Let Them Eat High Energy Biscuits

Posted by feww on January 19, 2010

Haiti Quake Disaster Update – Day 7

Bill Clinton’s New Assistant to Help Raise [and Divert] Haiti Quake Relief Funds

Can you believe this?

How could G.W. Bush be pathologically capable of doing good?

As the “former tenants of the White House” Join forces eying quake relief  funds that are being raised for Haiti, a news report confirmed yesterday that up to 40,000 high energy biscuits had been distributed among the two or so million starved residents of Port-au-Prince.

A Brief summary of events on Day 7 of Haiti quake :

Looters and scavengers are attacking any place they can find food, clothes, toys or other goods, then fighting over the loot among themselves.

Hungry, frustrated crowds are swarming locations used by the UN, U.S. military and international relief agencies, pleading for food, water and jobs, Reuters reported. “Jordanian peacekeepers kicked Haitians and fired in the air over a crowd clamoring outside the Port-au-Prince airport, witnesses said.”

Let Them Go Back to Africa

As various countries promised more cash the President of the African country of Senegal suggested that African nations should give Haitians the opportunity to resettle in “the land of their ancestors”.

“Africa should offer Haitians the chance to return home. It is their right,” Wade has reportedly said on his website.

Local media in Senegal quoted the officials as saying the West African country was willing to allocate fertile land to Haitians, Reuters reported.

“We haven’t moved for four days, only God knows how long we can survive like this, but there are no jobs and no houses,”  a single mother with four children, sheltering at one improvised camp said, Reuters reported.

Related Links:

For More Information Visit Haiti Earthquake Disaster Links Page!

Posted in Haiti earthquake, Haiti EQ, Haiti fundraising scams, haiti quake, Haiti Quake Relief Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Offshore N California

Posted by feww on January 10, 2010

Magnitude 6.5 [Possibly 6.7Mw] Strikes Offshore Northern California

Strong earthquake measuring up to 6.7Mw struck offshore northern California Sunday, January 10, 2010 at 00:27:39 UTC.

The quake was located at 40.674°N, 124.655°W about 35 km (22 miles) WNW (288°) from Ferndale,  and 39 km (24 miles) W (261°) from Humboldt Hill, CA, and occurred at a depth of 16.4 km (10.2 miles), USGS reported.

The Mainshock which occurred to the east of Cascadia Subduction Zone, was followed by at least 4 aftershocks, as of posting, the largest of which measured 3.8 to 4.1Mw.

Tsunami Information


According to NOAA’s West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Center website there was no Tsunami Watch, Warning, or advisory in effect. Click image to enlarge.

Closeup View closeview Event Location earthview Alert Status wwareas


10-degree Map Centered at 40°N,125°W


Earthquake Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.
(Click Images to enlarge). All images are sourced from USGS/EHP

USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database for the United States: Eureka 1° x 2° Sheet

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 6.5 [FEWW Estimate: Mainshock may have measured up to 6.7Mw]
  • Date-Time:
    • Sunday, January 10, 2010 at 00:27:38 UTC
    • Saturday, January 09, 2010 at 04:27:38 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 40.645°N, 124.763°W
  • Depth: 21.7 km (13.5 miles)
  • Region: OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Distances:
    • 43 km (27 miles) W (280°) from Ferndale, CA
    • 48 km (30 miles) W (259°) from Humboldt Hill, CA
    • 51 km (32 miles) WSW (255°) from Bayview, CA
    • 53 km (33 miles) WSW (252°) from Eureka, CA
    • 365 km (227 miles) NW (310°) from Sacramento, CA
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 0.7 km (0.4 miles); depth +/- 1.6 km (1.0 miles)
  • Parameters Nph= 56, Dmin=41 km, Rmss=0.24 sec, Gp=220°,
  • M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
  • Source: California Integrated Seismic Net:   USGS; Caltech; CGS; UCB; UCSD; UNR
  • Event ID: nc71338066

Earthquake Location.


USGS Topographic Map, Resolution: 16.0 meters/pixel

Seismic Hazard Map


Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking. Click images to enlarge.

Related Links:

Posted in Bayview, Calif quake 2010, earthquake forecast, Eureka, Ferndale quake | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Powerful Aftershocks Still Striking Solomon Isles

Posted by feww on January 6, 2010

Aftershocks Continue to Strike Solomon Islands

Seven fishermen from Viru in the Western Province were reported missing amid continuing aftershocks, the Solomon Star newspaper reported. The seven have not been seen since Monday’s mainshock and tsunami.

As of posting, 8 more aftershock Measuring greater than M5.0 have struck near the epicenter of the mainshock that occurred on January 4. See:

The largest of these aftershocks measured up to 7.2Mw.

The Solomon Islands region, which comprises a section of the Pacific Ring of Fire, is particularly prone to earthquakes because of the above average rate of convergence of the Australia and Pacific tectonic plates in the region.

The down-going slab of the Australian plate is overridden by leading edge of the Pacific Plate at a rate of about 10 cm/yr near the location where the shocks occurred.

As the subducting plate is forced into the earth’s mantle, the more brittle areas of the crust is crushed resulting in the release of stress energy—earthquakes.


Damage from Monday’s mainshock and tsunami to an unidentified village in the Western Province of the Solomon Islands. Credit: Regional Assistance Mission To Solomon Islands (handout via Reuters).


Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

Details of the largest aftershock:

  • Magnitude: 6.9 [Maximum EQ magnitude estimated at 7.2 Mw by FireEarth - USGS/EHP may be systematically downgrading earthquakes by an average of 0.3Mw, probably for political reasons]
  • Date-Time:
    • Tuesday, January 05, 2010 at 12:15:36 UTC
    • Tuesday, January 05, 2010 at 11:15:36 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 8.886°S, 157.522°E
  • Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
  • Region:  SOLOMON ISLANDS
  • Distances:
    • 115 km (70 miles) SE of Gizo, New Georgia Islands, Solomon Isl.
    • 190 km (120 miles) WSW of Dadali, Santa Isabel, Solomon Islands
    • 275 km (170 miles) WNW of HONIARA, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
    • 2115 km (1310 miles) NNE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles)
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2010rca2

Tsunami Evaluation:

No tsunami reported.

Related Links:

Posted in Dadali quake, Gizo, Guadalcanal, Santa Isabel, tsunami update | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Large Quake Could Strike Near Padang, Sumatra

Posted by feww on December 23, 2009

Strong Earthquake Measuring 6.2 Mw Strikes Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia

An earthquake measuring 6.2 Mw struck Kepulauan Mentawai Region, about 115 km (70 miles) WSW of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia, at a depth of about 22km. The mainshock was followed by at least one aftershock measuring 5.3Mw.

More than two dozen quakes measuring 5.0Mw or larger, including a 6.9Mw quake that occurred in August 2009, have struck the area since mid August 2009.

Based on the existing information, FEWW EarthModel forecasts a large quake measuring ≥8.0 could strike near Padang, the capital and largest city of West Sumatra, Indonesia.

Padang has a population of about 800,000 people.

Earthquake Details:

Region: Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
Time: 2009-12-23 01:11:59.6 UTC
Magnitude: 6.2 [estimated by FEWW]
Epicenter: 99.47°E 1.43°S   [location estimated by USGS: 1.419°S, 99.448°E]
Depth: 27 km


EQ Location Map. Source: GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin. Image may be subject to copyright.

Seismic Hazard Map

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP

Historic Seismicity


Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP

Related Links:

Posted in feww earthquake forecast, Indonesia quake, padang earthquake forecast, sumatra quake, Sumatra Volcanoes | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Earthquake Alert

Posted by feww on December 17, 2009

FEWW EarthModel shows a massive  buildup of earthquake stress energy in southern Italy/ Sicily region

The energy buildup could lead to an earthquake measuring up to 8.4 Mw.

Related Links:

Posted in Campi Flegrei, earthquake, Etna, stromboli, volcano | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes SE of the Loyalty Islands

Posted by feww on December 9, 2009

New Episodes of Intense Seismicity Before Year End Highly Probable

Earthquake Measuring Up to 6.7 Mw Strikes Southeast of the Loyalty Islands

Strong Earthquake Measuring up to Magnitude 6.7 struck 120 km west of Ile Hunter, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia, at a depth of about 60km on December 09, 2009 at 09:46 UTC.

The earthquake occurred about 42 km NNW of the Matthew Island volcano. Since November 2008 at least a half dozen strong quakes measuring between 6.1 and 6.8Mw have struck close to the volcano.

Special Interest: Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts

10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,170°E


Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude:  [Maximum quake magnitude estimated at 6.7 Mw by FEWW]
  • GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
  • Region: Southeast of Loyalty Islands
  • Time: 2009-12-09 09:46:05.7 UTC
  • Epicenter: 170.96°E 22.24°S
  • Depth: 59 km
  • Status: manually revised

Historic Seismicity (Source: USGS/EHP)

Seismic Hazard Map (Source: USGS/EHP)

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake forecast, hunter island, intense seismicity, Quake analysis, seismic hazard report | Tagged: , , , , , | 4 Comments »

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 219 other followers