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Posts Tagged ‘Earthquakes’

M8.2 Aftershock Follows Mega Quake Off Sumatra

Posted by feww on April 11, 2012

Large aftershock strikes Off the Coast of Sumatra

More than a dozen significant aftershocks have occurred off the coast of Sumatra, the largest of which measured 8.2Mw, according to USGS/EHP.


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

EQ Details

  • Magnitude 8.2
  • Date-Time:  Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 10:43:09 UTC
  • Location: 0.773°N, 92.452°E
  • Depth: 16.4 km (10.2 miles)
  • Distances:
    • 618 km (384 miles) SSW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 712 km (442 miles) W of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia
    • 1,062 km (659 miles) WSW of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
    • 1,773 km (1,101 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
  • Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 14.2 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 6.4 km (4.0 miles)
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Tsunami Alert

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 005
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1151Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

... A MAJOR AFTERSHOCK OCCURRED AT 1043Z WITH MAGNITUDE 8.3 ...

... THE WATCH AREA IS NOW REDUCED ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / SRI LANKA / MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 TRINCONMALEE LK       8.6N  81.2E  1116Z   0.04M /  0.1FT  18MIN
 COCOS ISLAND AU      12.1S  96.9E  1102Z   0.08M /  0.3FT  18MIN
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  1045Z   0.19M /  0.6FT  10MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0912Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0933Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0944Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1025Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1037Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1150Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1200Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1326Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1333Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1015Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1045Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1050Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1134Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1204Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1204Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1339Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1605Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1636Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1049Z 11 APR
                  DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1054Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1121Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1235Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1144Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1149Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1214Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1202Z 11 APR

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

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Cleveland and Kīlauea Remain at ORANGE Alert

Posted by feww on April 6, 2012

Explosion destroys dome in Cleveland summit crater

Sudden explosions of blocks and ash may occur, while the volcano remains active, with the ash clouds rising to above 20,000 feet above sea level, AVO said.

  • Elevation:  5,676 ft (1,730 m)
  • Location: 52.8222° N, 169.945° W
  • Quadrangle: Samalga


Mt Cleveland. Photo taken at 18:00 UTC on 11 Mar 2012 while transiting north through Samalga pass. Several small explosions were detected in days prior to the time of the photo, but very little ash is observed on the upper flanks.  Credit:  Matthew Davis/NOAA.

KILAUEA VOLCANO

19°25’16″ N 155°17’13″ W,
Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Current Volcano Ale,rt Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Activity Summary for past 24 hours:  The summit continued to inflate slowly while back-to-back DI events and sympathetic summit lava lake oscillations continued. Overnight, glow was visible within the Halema`uma`u gas plume and from sources within Pu`u `O`o crater. To the southeast, surface flows continued to be active on the pali and the coastal plain; there was no ocean entry. Seismic tremor levels were low; gas emissions were elevated: HVO


Kīlauea Volcano.  Active flows continued over a broad area on the coastal plain on April 5, 2012.  “This composite image combines a normal photograph and a thermal image to show the areas of active breakouts. Yellow areas are active flows while red areas are inactive, but still warm, flows. The flow front in the lower right was 1.6 km (1 mile) from the ocean,” HVO said.

Alert Level Increased for Iliamna Volcano, AK

Iliamna Activity – Color Code YELLOW Alert Level ADVISORY

Since January 2012 the earthquake rate at Iliamna Volcano has steadily increased and now exceeds normal background levels.


Iliamna Volcano. View from the SSE of Iliamna showing the prominent NE shoulder fumarole field near the summit. Note glacier disturbance (movement) on the east flank (upper Red Glacier).  Photo: Game McGimsey/AVO/USGS.

Pagan

Location: Mariana Islands  (18.13 ºN,  145.8 ºE)
Elevation: 570 m
Recent Eruption: 2006
Volcanic Alert Level: ADVISORY
Aviation Color Code: YELLOW

A gas and steam plume continued to extend downwind from the summit vent throughout the past week, but there were no further reports of unrest or activity at Pagan volcano, USGS said.

Other Volcanic Activity/ Unrest (Source: GVP)

New Activity/Unrest:

Ongoing Activity:

Related Links

Posted in active volcanoes, Alaska volcanoes, hawaii volcanoes, major volcanoes, super volcanoes, US Volcanoes, volcanoes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

NOTHING SACRED in SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY

Posted by feww on March 9, 2012

on November 19, 2011 FIRE-EARTH posted the following forecast:

Major Geological Events Forecast for Western U-S

Earlier today, MSNBC posted the following:

Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show

We won’t ask, what new data? However, note the researchers’ inappropriate use of the term “mirror image,” which they almost certainly borrowed from earlier FIRE-EARTH forecast [https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/new-round-of-geo-assualt/] but used it in the wrong context. Their slick prophecy about the time of occurrence, “it could be sooner rather than later,” is also mysteriously consistent with the above FIRE-EARTH forecast(i.e, short term). Though the researchers fail to say how they arrived at their conclusion or where it came from.

Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show

“It’s just like Japan, only a mirror image,” said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

“Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?” he asked. “I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later.” [Based on what assumptions?]
[...]
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a “mirror image” of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.

“In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan,” Anderson said.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/08/10603138-quake-catastrophe-like-japans-could-hit-pacific-northwest-new-data-show

NOTHING SACRED in SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY

MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES that are likely to IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, will comprise a number of discrete events, including at least several ‘surprises.’

Readers who are in doubt about the originality of the research at Hawaii and Nevada universities, could put their minds at rest of course by emailing the two academics named in the MSNBC article and asking them for details of those events (e.g, type, sequence, scale, probability of occurrence…).

JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast

In Japan Earthquake Forecast, posted on February 14, 2012, we said:

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan

FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE  ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.

Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

How could researchers from 4 different universities located on the opposite ends of Pacific Ocean, about 9,000km (5,500 miles) apart bluff their way in identical ways, fooling their respective taxpayers into believing they know their science? Is there a common link between Japan earthquake researchers, and their counterparts in Western U.S.?

Interestingly, it seems there is a solid link. Read the rest of MSNBC article Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show.

Related Links

  • WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

M6.8 Quake Strikes SW Siberia, Russia

Posted by feww on February 26, 2012

Strong earthquake strikes E of Kyzyl, Russia

The quake, epicentered at 51.731°N, 95.921°E, struck at a depth of 11.7 km (7.3 miles) Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 01:17 PM local time. 

The mainshock was followed by at least one significant aftershock measuring 4.9Mw, which struck at a depth of about 10km.

A 6.6Mw quake struck the same area [51.839°N, 95.921°E ; 96 km  E of Kyzyl] on December 27, 2011 at 10:21:56 PM at a depth of 15 km, according to USGS records.

At least 2 large quakes measuring 8.4Mw struck the nearby volcanic fields, south of the region, in 1905.


EQ Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP.

ShakeMap
ShakeMap

PAGER Earthquake Impact
PAGER Earthquake Impact

Seismic Hazard Map
Seismic Hazard Map

Taiwan Earthquakes

Continued…

Related Links

Posted in earthquakes 2012 | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Major Geological Events Forecast for Western U-S

Posted by feww on November 19, 2011

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:

MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES COULD IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, BEGINNING IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS  [PROBABILITY ≥ 0.8]

Related Links:

  • WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Posted in global disasters, Mechanism for Mega Disasters, Mega Disasters | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Significant Earthquakes Strike PRF

Posted by feww on May 6, 2011

LARGE SCALE TECTONICS LOOM

Earthquakes Strike Ryukyu Islands, East Honshu, Alaska Peninsula,  Guerrero Mexico, Sumatra Indonesia and Fiji Islands

  • Magnitude 5.6 – RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 2011 May 05 at 23:21:22 UTC [USGS]
  • Magnitude 6.2 – ALASKA PENINSULA 2011 May 05 at 16:57:38 UTC [GFZ Potsdam]
  • Magnitude 5.4 – SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 2011 May 05 at 16:15:20 UTC
  • Magnitude 5.6 – ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 2011 May 05 at 15:06:11 UTC[GFZ Potsdam]
  • Magnitude 6.1 – OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011 May 05 at 14:58:21 UTC [USGS]
  • Magnitude 5.8 – ALASKA PENINSULA 2011 May 05 14:13:01 at UTC [USGS]
  • Magnitude 5.7 – GUERRERO, MEXICO  2011 May 05 13:24:06 at UTC [USGS]
  • Magnitude 5.6 – SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA 2011 May 04 at 17:38:37 UTC [USGS]
  • Magnitude 5.6 – FIJI REGION 2011 May 04 at 16:13:28 UTC [USGS]

Related Links

Global Disasters


Posted in destructive interplate earthquakes, japan earthquake | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Dominican Republic Quake Report

Posted by feww on April 3, 2010

Serial No  1,528. If any posts are blocked in your country, please drop us a line.

Correction:

An earlier report of a magnitude 8.0 earthquake in the Dominican Republic that was posted on Fire-Earth was sourced from an automatically generated bulletin broadcast by the European Commission’s Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System – the report now appears to be FALSE

According to other monitoring sources, an 8.0Mw quake has NOT occurred in the region.

Details as they appeared on  EC’s Disaster Website:


Click image to enlarge.

Earthquake Details as Reported by USGS/EHP:

  • Magnitude: 3.2
  • Date-Time:
    • Friday, April 02, 2010 at 05:38:53 UTC
    • Friday, April 02, 2010 at 01:38:53 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 19.226°N, 67.986°W
  • Depth: 89.8 km (55.8 miles)
  • Region: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
  • Distances:
    • 102 km (63 miles) NE (48°) from Higüey, La Altagracia, Dominican Republic
    • 122 km (76 miles) ENE (65°) from El Seybo, El Seybo, Dominican Republic
    • 124 km (77 miles) NW (315°) from Aguadilla, PR
    • 136 km (85 miles) NE (49°) from La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic
    • 212 km (132 miles) WNW (293°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 3.7 km (2.3 miles); depth +/- 4.8 km (3.0 miles)
  • Parameters: NST= 14, Nph= 14, Dmin=124.8 km, Rmss=0.37 sec, Gp=202°,
  • M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=0
  • Source:Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico
  • Event ID: pr10092001

The automatic report also generated a virtual tsunami automatically. Let’s hope no one was hurt!!


Click image to enlarge.

Posted in Dominican Republic, Dominican Republic Quake Report, earthquake, usgs | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Earthquakes: Worst Disaster Type in Past Decade

Posted by feww on January 29, 2010

Earthquakes caused the deadliest disasters in 2000-09 decade: UNISDR

In its recent News Brief, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat (UNISDR) reported that about 60 per cent of the people killed by disasters in the past decade died as a result of earthquakes.


List of Top 10 Natural disasters by number of deaths – 2009. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.

“Earthquakes are the deadliest natural hazard of the past ten years and remain a serious threat for millions of people worldwide as eight out of the ten most populous cities in the world are on earthquake fault-lines,” said Margareta Wahlström, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction.

“Disaster risk reduction is an indispensable investment for each earthquake-prone city and each community. Seismic risk is a permanent risk and cannot be ignored. Earthquakes can happen anywhere at any time. Risk reduction will be a main priority in the Haiti reconstruction process, and we will be working with our partners to ensure that it is central in the reconstruction.”

The Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has released the following statistics covering the past 10 years:

Number of disasters for 2000-20009 period: 3,852 disasters

  • Death toll from the disasters: 780,000 people
  • Total number of people affected by the disasters: about a thirs of the planet’s population (more than two billion people)
  • Cost of the damage caused by the disasters: About 1 trillion (US$960 billion).

The worst hit continent in terms of human losses:  Asia, accounting for 85 per cent of all fatalities.

Disaster Types

  • The worst category: Earthquakes, accounting for 60 percent of the fatalities
  • Second Worst Disaster Category:  Storms, accounting for 22 percent of the deaths.
  • Third deadliest: Extremes of Temperature, accounting for 11  percent of the casualties.

The deadliest disasters of the 2000-2009 decade:

  • Indian Ocean Tsunami:   Struck several countries in Asia (2004),  leaving 226,408 dead
  • Cyclone Nargis: Struck  Myanmar (2008), killing 138,366 people
  • Sichuan earthquake:  China (2008) killed at least 87,476 people
  • Pakistan (2005) earthquake: Killed 73,338 people w
  • Heat waves in Europe (2003): Killed 72,210


Human impact by disaster types. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.

“The number of catastrophic events has more than doubled since the 1980-1989 decade. In contrast, the numbers of affected people have increased at a slower rate. This may be due to better community preparedness and prevention,” said Professor Guha-Sapir, Director of CRED.

Of the more than two billion affected people

  • 44 per cent were affected by floods
  • 30 per cent by droughts
  • ONLY 4 per cent by earthquakes

The  death toll for the last 3 decades (annual average)

  • 2000 decade: 78,000 people per year(ppy)
  • 1990s decade: 43,000 ppy
  • 1980s decade: 75,000  (worsened by two major droughts and famines in Ethiopia and Sudan)

Natural Hazard Events (annual average) and Estimated Economic  Damage

  • 2000 decade: 385  at a cost of US$96 billion
  • 1990 decade: 285  at a cost of US$99 billion
  • 1980 decade: 165  at a cost of US$39 billion


Percentage of people killed by natural disasters by region. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.

In 2009, some 10,416 people were killed in 327 disasters and  a further 113 million others were affected. Cost of the economic damage:  US$34.9 billion. {there were no major disasters). the total number of people killed and affected by disasters was lower than in 2008, as no major disaster occurred.

In contrast, the 2000-2008 annual averages were 85,535 (deaths), 229,792,397 (affected) and US$102.7 billion (economic damages).


Natural disaster occurrence by disaster type. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.

The worst disaster in 2009

The worst disaster in 2009 (highest death toll) was the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that struck the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, on 30 September, killing at least 1,100 people.  It was followed by typhoons Morakot, Ketsana and Parma and numerous floods that killed many in Asia, which was home to six of the top 10 countries with the highest number of disaster-related deaths.

Most populous cities on EQ fault-lines (A-Z): Delhi, Jakarta, Kolkata Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Source: UNISDR; edited by FEWW

Note: IF the numbers of fatalities/casualties in a given disaster are claimed to be larger than a few hundreds, and no video or photographic evidence is presented to support the claim, those figures should be carefully analyzed. Governments and aid organizations invariably exaggerate the casualty figures to maximize the inflow of aid and donations for self-serving purposes and interests other than those of the victims. See footnote at http://feww.wordpress.com/earthquake/haiti-earthquake-disaster/

Related Links:

Posted in disaster, disaster continent, natural disasters, storms, UNISDR | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Yellowstone eruption may cover 60 pct of US: FEWW

Posted by feww on December 14, 2009

The next cataclysmic event at Yellowstone supervolcano could cover about  60 percent of the continental US in volcanic materials —Fire Earth

.

Yellowstone’s Plumbing Exposed

Plume Slants NW; Magma Body Bigger than Thought

Dec. 14, 2009 – The most detailed seismic images yet published of the plumbing that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano shows a plume of hot and molten rock rising at an angle from the northwest at a depth of at least 410 miles, contradicting claims that there is no deep plume, only shallow hot rock moving like slowly boiling soup.

A related University of Utah study used gravity measurements to indicate the banana-shaped magma chamber of hot and molten rock a few miles beneath Yellowstone is 20 percent larger than previously believed, so a future cataclysmic eruption could be even larger than thought.


Seismic imaging was used by University of Utah scientists to construct this picture of the Yellowstone hotspot plume of hot and molten rock that feeds the shallower magma chamber (not shown) beneath Yellowstone National Park, outlined in green at the surface, or top of the illustration. The Yellowstone caldera, or giant volcanic crater, is outlined in red. State boundaries are shown in black. The park, caldera and state boundaries also are projected to the bottom of the picture to better illustrate the plume’s tilt. Researchers believe “blobs” of hot rock float off the top of the plume, then rise to recharge the magma chamber located 3.7 miles to 10 miles beneath the surface at Yellowstone. The illustration also shows a region of warm rock extending southwest from near the top of the plume. It represents the eastern Snake River Plain, where the Yellowstone hotspot triggered numerous cataclysmic caldera eruptions before the plume started feeding Yellowstone 2.05 million years ago. Photo Credit: University of Utah

The study’s of Yellowstone’s plume also suggests the same “hotspot” that feeds Yellowstone volcanism also triggered the Columbia River “flood basalts” that buried parts of Oregon, Washington state and Idaho with lava starting 17 million years ago.

Those are key findings in four National Science Foundation-funded studies in the latest issue of the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. The studies were led by Robert B. Smith, research professor and professor emeritus of geophysics at the University of Utah and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

“We have a clear image, using seismic waves from earthquakes, showing a mantle plume that extends from beneath Yellowstone,” Smith says.

The plume angles downward 150 miles to the west-northwest of Yellowstone and reaches a depth of at least 410 miles, Smith says. The study estimates the plume is mostly hot rock, with 1 percent to 2 percent molten rock in sponge-like voids within the hot rock.

Some researchers have doubted the existence of a mantle plume feeding Yellowstone, arguing instead that the area’s volcanic and hydrothermal features are fed by convection – the boiling-like rising of hot rock and sinking of cooler rock – from relatively shallow depths of only 185 miles to 250 miles.


A cross section of the plume of hot and molten rock that tops out about 50 miles beneath Yellowstone National Park and tilts downward to the northwest to a depth of at least 410 miles. The plume is mostly hot rock with about 1 to 2 percent molten rock. Researches believe “blobs” of hot rock slowly detach from the top of the plume and rise upward to recharge the magma chamber that lies from 3.7 to 10 miles beneath Yellowstone. The chamber is also mostly hot rock, but with a sponge-like structure containing about 8 to 15 percent molten rock. Photo Credit: University of Utah

The Hotspot: A Deep Plume, Blobs and Shallow Magma

Some 17 million years ago, the Yellowstone hotspot was located beneath the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada border region, feeding a plume of hot and molten rock that produced “caldera” eruptions – the biggest kind of volcanic eruption on Earth.

As North America slid southwest over the hotspot, the plume generated more than 140 huge eruptions that produced a chain of giant craters – calderas – extending from the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada border northeast to the current site of Yellowstone National Park, where huge caldera eruptions happened 2.05 million, 1.3 million and 642,000 years ago.

These eruptions were 2,500, 280 and 1,000 times bigger, respectively, than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The eruptions covered as much as half the continental United States with inches to feet of volcanic ash. The Yellowstone caldera, 40 miles by 25 miles, is the remnant of that last giant eruption.

The new study reinforces the view that the hot and partly molten rock feeding volcanic and geothermal activity at Yellowstone isn’t vertical, but has three components:

  • The 45-mile-wide plume that rises through Earth’s upper mantle from at least 410 miles beneath the surface. The plume angles upward to the east-southeast until it reaches the colder rock of the North American crustal plate, and flattens out like a 300-mile-wide pancake about 50 miles beneath Yellowstone. The plume includes several wider “blobs” at depths of 355 miles, 310 miles and 265 miles.”This conduit is not one tube of constant thickness,” says Smith. “It varies in width at various depths, and we call those things blobs.”
  • A little-understood zone, between 50 miles and 10 miles deep, in which blobs of hot and partly molten rock break off of the flattened top of the plume and slowly rise to feed the magma reservoir directly beneath Yellowstone National Park.
  • A magma reservoir 3.7 miles to 10 miles beneath the Yellowstone caldera. The reservoir is mostly sponge-like hot rock with spaces filled with molten rock”It looks like it’s up to 8 percent or 15 percent melt,” says Smith. “That’s a lot.”

Researchers previously believed the magma chamber measured roughly 6 to 15 miles from southeast to northwest, and 20 or 25 miles from southwest to northeast, but new measurements indicate the reservoir extends at least another 13 miles outside the caldera’s northeast boundary, Smith says.

He says the gravity and other data show the magma body “is an elongated structure that looks like a banana with the ends up. It is a lot larger than we thought – I would say about 20 percent [by volume]. This would argue there might be a larger magma source available for a future eruption.”

Images of the magma reservoir were made based on the strength of Earth’s gravity at various points in Yellowstone. Hot and molten rock is less dense than cold rock, so the tug of gravity is measurably lower above magma reservoirs.

The Yellowstone caldera, like other calderas on Earth, huffs upward and puffs downward repeatedly over the ages, usually without erupting. Since 2004, the caldera floor has risen 3 inches per year, suggesting recharge of the magma body beneath it.

How to View a Plume

Seismic imaging uses earthquake waves that travel through the Earth and are recorded by seismometers. Waves travel more slowly through hotter rock and more quickly in cooler rock. Just as X-rays are combined to make CT-scan images of features in the human body, seismic wave data are melded to produce images of Earth’s interior.

The study, the Yellowstone Geodynamics Project, was conducted during 1999-2005. It used an average of 160 temporary and permanent seismic stations – and as many as 200 – to detect waves from some 800 earthquakes, with the stations spaced 10 miles to 22 miles apart – closer than other networks and better able to “see” underground. Some 160 Global Positioning System stations measured crustal movements.

By integrating seismic and GPS data, “it’s like a lens that made the upper 125 miles much clearer and allowed us to see deeper, down to 410 miles,” Smith says.

The study also shows warm rock – not as hot as the plume – stretching from Yellowstone southwest under the Snake River Plain, at depths of 20 miles to 60 miles. The rock is still warm from eruptions before the hotspot reached Yellowstone.

A Plume Blowing in the 2-inch-per-year Mantle Wind

Seismic imaging shows a “slow” zone from the top of the plume, which is 50 miles deep, straight down to about 155 miles, but then as you travel down the plume, it tilts to the northwest as it dives to a depth of 410 miles, says Smith.

That is the base of the global transition zone – from 250 miles to 410 miles deep – that is the boundary between the upper and lower mantle – the layers below Earth’s crust.

At that depth, the plume is about 410 miles beneath the town of Wisdom, Mont., which is 150 miles west-northwest of Yellowstone, says Smith.

He says “it wouldn’t surprise me” if the plume extends even deeper, perhaps originating from the core-mantle boundary some 1,800 miles deep.

Why doesn’t the plume rise straight upward? “This plume material wants to come up vertically, it wants to buoyantly rise,” says Smith. “But it gets caught in the ‘wind’ of the upper mantle flow, like smoke rising in a breeze.” Except in this case, the “breeze” of slowly flowing upper mantle rock is moving horizontally 2 inches per year.

While the crustal plate moves southwest, the warm, underlying mantle slowly boils due to convection, with warm areas moving upward and cooler areas downward. Northwest of Yellowstone, this convection is such that the plume is “blown” east-southeast by mantle convection, so it angles upward toward Yellowstone.

Scientists have debated for years whether Yellowstone’s volcanism is fed by a plume rising from deep in the Earth or by shallow churning in the upper mantle caused by movements of the overlying crust. Smith says the new study has produced the most detailed image of the Yellowstone plume yet published.

But a preliminary study by other researchers suggests Yellowstone’s plume goes deeper than 410 miles, ballooning below that depth into a wider zone of hot rock that extends at least 620 miles deep.

The notion that a deep plume feeds Yellowstone got more support from a study published this month inicating that the Hawaiian hotspot – which created the Hawaiian Islands – is fed by a plume that extends downward at least 930 miles, tilting southeast.

A Common Source for Yellowstone and the Columbia River Basalts?

Based on how the Yellowstone plume slants now, Smith and colleagues projected on a map where the plume might have originated at depth when the hotspot was erupting at the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada border area from 17 million to almost 12 million years ago.

They saw overlap, between the zones within the Earth where eruptions originated near the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada border and where the famed Columbia River Basalt eruptions originated when they were most vigorous 17 million to 14 million years ago.

Their conclusion: the Yellowstone hotspot plume might have fed those gigantic lava eruptions, which covered much of eastern Oregon and eastern Washington state.

“I argue it is the common source,” Smith says. “It’s neat stuff and it fits together.”

Smith conducted the seismic study with six University of Utah present or former geophysicists – former postdoctoral researchers Michael Jordan, of SINTEF Petroleum Research in Norway, and Stephan Husen, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology; postdoc Christine Puskas; Ph.D. student Jamie Farrell; and former Ph.D. students Gregory Waite, now at Michigan Technological University, and Wu-Lung Chang, of National Central University in Taiwan. Other co-authors were Bernhard Steinberger of the Geological Survey of Norway and Richard O’Connell of Harvard University.

Smith conducted the gravity study with former University of Utah graduate student Katrina DeNosaquo and Tony Lowry of Utah State University in Logan.

PDF files of the new studies may be downloaded from: http://www.uusatrg.utah.edu/

Related FEWW Links:

Posted in Columbia River, flood basalts, Geothermal Research, Snake River Plain, Yellowstone National Park | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Powerful Earthquake Strikes Tonga

Posted by feww on November 25, 2009

Earthquake Measuring Up to M 7.1 Strikes Near NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga

A powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.1 Mw struck  about 135 km (85 miles) ENE of NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga at a depth of 10 km on  November 24, 2009 at 12:47 UTC.

The quake was followed by at least two aftershocks, the stronger of which measured up to 5.8 Mw.

Tsunami Evaluation:

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS Evaluated the Tsunami Hazard as follows:

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER – EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN A HUNDRED KM OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

FEWW Comment: Does the SW Pacific region including Tonga, Fiji, and Samoan Islands regions act as a ‘planetary seismic shock damper?’  How much longer will the service last?

10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,175°W


Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 6.8  [Maximum quake magnitude estimated at 7.1 Mw by FEWW]
  • Date-Time:
    • Tuesday, November 24, 2009 at 12:47:14 UTC
    • Wednesday, November 25, 2009 at 02:47:14 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 20.641°S, 174.068°W
  • Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
  • Region: TONGA
  • Distances:
    • 135 km (85 miles) ENE of NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga
    • 220 km (135 miles) S of Neiafu, Tonga
    • 480 km (300 miles) E of Ndoi Island, Fiji
    • 2100 km (1300 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Uncertainty horizontal +/- 5.6 km (3.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009pja1

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Posted in earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, feww earthquake forecast, tonga quake | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Fiji Region

Posted by feww on November 22, 2009

Earthquake measuring up to 6.5 Mw strikes Fiji Region

A strong earthquake measuring up to M 6.5 struck offshore Fiji Region at 17.789°S, 178.435°W at a depth  of about 520 km November 22, 2009 at 07:48 UTC.

The event occurred about 195 km SE of Taveuni volcano which last erupted about 1550 ± 100 yrs.

Taveuni, the 3-rd largest island in Fiji, is a large shield volcano that rises from the Pacific Ocean floor. A popular tourist destination, the Island has a population of less than 10,000.

Tsunami Information

The earthquake was located too deep to generate a tsunami.

10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,180°E


Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 6.3 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated at 6.5 Mw by FEWW]
  • Date-Time:
    • Sunday, November 22, 2009 at 07:48:20 UTC
    • Sunday, November 22, 2009 at 07:48:20 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 17.789°S, 178.435°W
  • Depth: 523.1 km (325.1 miles) set by location program
  • Region: FIJI REGION
  • Distances:
    • 275 km (170 miles) ESE of Lambasa, Vanua Levu, Fiji
    • 320 km (195 miles) N of Ndoi Island, Fiji
    • 335 km (210 miles) E of SUVA, Viti Levu, Fiji
    • 2220 km (1380 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 5.1 km (3.2 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009phaj

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, earthquake update, feww earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Powerful Quake Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands Region

Posted by feww on November 18, 2009

Earthquake Measuring up to 6.8 Mw followed by a Strong Aftershock Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands Region

A powerful earthquake measuring up to magnitude 6.8 followed by a cluster of aftershocks, the largest of which measured up to M 6.0, struck Queen Charlotte Islands Region on Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at about 15:31 UTC, at a shallow depth of about 5 km.

Tsunami Information

The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer AK, said there was no threat of a damaging tsunami caused by the earthquake. However some neighboring regions could experience non-damaging sea level changes. “In coastal areas of intense shaking locally generated tsunamis can be triggered by underwater landslides.”


Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude: 6.6 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated by FEWW at 6.8 Mw]
  • Date-Time:
    • Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 15:30:46 UTC
    • Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 07:30:46 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 52.151°N, 131.378°W
  • Depth: 11.6 km (7.2 miles)
  • Region: QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
  • Distances:
    • 250 km (155 miles) SSW (197°) from Prince Rupert, BC, Canada
    • 315 km (195 miles) WNW (303°) from Port Hardy, BC, Canada
    • 331 km (206 miles) S (178°) from Metlakatla, AK
    • 662 km (411 miles) WNW (302°) from Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.5 km (3.4 miles); depth +/- 10.5 km (6.5 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009pcaq

Historic Seismicity. USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

The Largest Earthquake in Canada

Canada’s largest earthquake (magnitude 8.1) since 1700, occurred on August 22, 1949 off the coast of BC. It occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault (Canada’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault) – the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates that runs underwater along the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of British Columbia. The shaking was so severe on the Queen Charlotte Islands that cows were knocked off their feet, and a geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada working on the north end of Graham Island could not stand up. Chimneys toppled, and an oil tank at Cumshewa Inlet collapsed. In Terrace, on the adjacent mainland, cars were bounced around, and standing on the street was described as “like being on the heaving deck of a ship at sea”. In Prince Rupert, windows were shattered and buildings swayed. —Natural resources of Canada


Related Links:

Posted in Canada Earthquake, earthquake, earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, seismic activity report, tsunami | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Moderate Earthquake, Massive Damage, Yunnan, China

Posted by feww on November 4, 2009

Quake measuring 5 on Richter scale rocked Western Yunnan, destroying about 600 houses and damaging up to 18,000 others

The earthquake occurred in western Yunnan about 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali at a depth of 35 km (21.7 miles) early Monday local time.

The tremor has affected 302,000 people, with 31 injured and 61,000 relocated, but no deaths were reported so far, China’s official news agency Xinhua said. “The quake flattened 579 houses and damaged another 17,400.”

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs has sent tents, war clothing, and rice to the victims, Xinhua added.

According to other reports, about 400 livestock, including pigs, sheep and chicken had been killed in the quake.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,100°E

EQ Loc Map
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 4.9 Mw
  • Date-Time: Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 21:07:23 UTC    [Monday, November 02, 2009 at 05:07:23 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 25.919°N, 100.748°E
  • Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
  • Region: YUNNAN, CHINA
  • Distances:
    • 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali, Yunnan, China
    • 120 km (75 miles) SW of Panzhihua (Dukou), Sichuan, China
    • 700 km (435 miles) SW of Chongqing, Chongqing, China
    • 2130 km (1320 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID:  us2009nla2

Seismic Hazard Map

DALI 1-nov-Seis haz 2009 neic_nla2_w
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

Posted in Beijing, China quake, chinese Govt, Earthquake Hazard, seismicity report | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Seventh Powerful Quake Hits Japan Region

Posted by feww on October 30, 2009

Powerful Earthquake measuring up to 7.2 Mw Strikes  RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

Background:

A powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.2 Mw occurred in Ryukyu Islands, Japan, about 280 km (175 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, at a depth of 35 km (21.7 miles), on Friday, October 30, 2009 at 07:03 UTC.

Referring to an earlier forecast, FEWW Moderators believe an additional series of 6 – 7 quakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw could strike Japan region in the coming weeks.

FEWW Moderators had previously anticipated more powerful earthquakes in the region, including as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes to strike the region in the coming weeks.

A moderate earthquake measuring up to 5.3 Mw struck near 29.165°N, 130.061°Eclose to the latest event on Sunday, October 25, 2009 at 06:17 UTC at a depth of about 47.5 km (29.5 miles).

10-degree Map Centered at 30°N,130°E

RYUKYU ISLANDS -  JAPAN - 30-10-2009
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Details:

  • Reported Magnitude: 6.9 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated by FEWW at 7.2 Mw]
  • Date-Time:
    • Friday, October 30, 2009 at 07:03:39 UTC
    • Friday, October 30, 2009 at 04:03:39 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 29.154°N, 129.903°E
  • Depth:  35 km (21.7 miles)
  • Region:  RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
  • Distances:
    • 280 km (175 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, Japan
    • 340 km (210 miles) SSW of Miyazaki, Kyushu, Japan
    • 400 km (245 miles) NNE of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
    • 1170 km (730 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 5.5 km (3.4 miles)
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009njal

Seismic Hazard Map [USGS]

seis nes  30oct09
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Historic Seismicity [Source: USGS?EHP]

RIJ his seis
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake forecast, Eurasian Plate, filipino plate, Japan quakes 2009, Japan quakes history, North American plate, Pacific palte, seismic activity report | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Recent Earthquakes ≥ 6.0 Mw

Posted by feww on October 13, 2009

FEWW list of earthquakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw that occurred between 7 – 12 October 2009

Source of the initial data: USGS/EHP; maximum quake magnitudes estimated by FEWW.]

Earthquakes tables - energy released
The total amount of energy released by the above quakes was the equivalent of the energy released by about 3,830 Hiroshima A-Bombs. [Click image to enlarge.]

Notes:
1. About 52 percent of the total energy released during the listed events came from the Vanuatu earthquake measuring 8.2 Mw.

2. A combined total of 89 percent of the energy released came from the two earthquakes highlighted in shades of blue, measuring 8.2 and 8.1 Mw respectively.

Related Links:

Posted in Alaska quake, Alaska quake forecast, Aleutian Islands quake, Halmahera quake, KURIL ISLANDS quake, maximum quake magnitudes, santa cruz islands quake, vanuatu quake | Tagged: , , , , | 19 Comments »

 
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