Posts Tagged ‘El Niño’
Posted by feww on February 20, 2012
10 million threatened by hunger as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger declare states of emergency
Niger (pop: ~ 16million) is the worst affected country with almost half of its population left without enough to eat.
Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 20
[February 20, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,486 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
- The Sahel, Africa. Ten million people are threatened by hunger across the Sahel, as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger declare states of emergency.
- “Nearly half of Niger does not have enough to eat. The 5.4 million people struggling to stay alive are part of a wider crisis affecting at least 10 million people across the swath across Africa that borders the Sahara, known as the Sahel,” said a spokeswoman for Mercy Corps.
- “This is the third time in the last decade the people of the Sahel have faced severe food shortages.”
Other Disasters
- Global. Wildfires kill about 339,000 people each year, according to a new study.
- The fires consume about 450 million hectares, an area half the size of Canada.
- [Notes:
- In China alone indoor air pollution kills 2.2 million youths.
- Urban air pollution kills about 2.4 million people globally each year, said The World Health Organization (WHO); however, the true figure may be 10 times as many.]
- About 157,000 of the deaths caused by wildfires occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 110,000 deaths in southeast Asia.
- The study suggests a link between climate and wildfire mortality.
- El Niño years, when the surface ocean temperature rises in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, claim an average of 532,000 lives, twice as many as the cooler La Niña years, averaging 262,000 deaths per year.
Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background
Drought: Recent Links
Posted in environment, Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: 2012 disaster calendar, 2012 disasters, desertification, Drought, El Niño, famine, Global Food Shortages, huger crisis, hunger, indoor air pollution, La Niña, Niger Food crisis, Sahel hunger, severe food shortages, wildfires | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 24, 2011
Persistent Drought Plaguing Southern U.S.
Persistent drought conditions to linger in the Southern Plains and Southeast US
Persistent drought conditions are forecast to continue in the Southern Plains and Southeast US through mid to late spring, NOAA’s National Weather Service says. “La Niña has kept storms and most of their precipitation in the north, leaving the South drier than normal.”
US Drought Conditions Growing Like Cancer from the South and Southeast.
“The speed with which the drought developed across the southern United States is rather unusual considering that just last year El Niño dominated the region with abundant precipitation,” said Bill Proenza, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service southern region.“ Then it was as if a switch was flipped during the summer, changing to La Niña conditions.”
Fear of Wildfires
Fearing wildfires, Gov Rick Perry issued a disaster proclamation for 244 counties (all but 10 of Texas counties), because of the ongoing severe drought in December, as Texas experienced its driest November to December in half a century last year.
“Drought conditions, as Texas is experiencing its driest November to December in about 50 years, can combine with low humidity and gusty winds to produce the wildfires, said Mahlon Hammetter, a fire prevention specialist with the Texas Forest Service.”
Earlier in December, lingering drought had forced USDA to declare natural disaster in 10 counties in South Carolina and 36 in Louisiana. because of persistent drought. “Counties along the Arkansas state line in Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas were declared secondary disaster areas,” a report said.
Although the drought persists in all of the Gulf Coast states, NOAA says, Texas and Florida are the worst affected. “From October through December, Texas received only five to 50 percent of normal precipitation, with portions of the lower Rio Grande averaging less than five percent of normal. During that period, for example, Brownsville received only 0.14 inches (normal is 6.55 inches) and Del Rio received 0.04 inch (normal is 3.89 inches). To the north in Austin, only 1.55 inches of rainfall was observed, compared to the normal of 8.34 inches.”
At least 42,000 fires consumed more than 775,000 acres throughout the affected southern region during 2010.
“Florida lost more than 400,000 acres to wildfires last year, with more predicted to come. Florida’s Forestry Division notes La Niña is expected to continue at least through spring and again anticipates greater than normal wildfire activity in 2011.”
Impact of La Niña
A combination of scarce tropical precipitation and the dry conditions brought by La Niña created severe to extreme drought conditions for about a third of the South and Southeast regions by late fall and early winter 2010, NOAA said.
La Niña conditions have occurred 13 times in the past 60 years, with the current La Niña being the 6th strongest, so far. However, climate experts are unable to predict whether it will continue into 2012.
It probably will!
La Niña on Dec. 29, 2010
The La Niña is highlighted by the large pool of blue and purple (cooler than normal) water stretching from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean, reflecting lower than normal sea surface heights. Click images to enlarge.
Original Caption: The current state of this season’s La Nina is shown in this Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 satellite image of the Pacific Ocean, based on the average of 10 days of data centered on Dec. 26, 2010. The new image depicts places where the Pacific sea-surface height is higher (warmer) than normal as yellow and red, while places where the sea surface is lower (cooler) than normal are shown in blue and purple. Green indicates near-normal conditions. Sea-surface height is an indicator of how much of the sun’s heat is stored in the upper ocean. The La Nina cool waters stretch from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean. Image credit: NASA JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team.
Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA)
Sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) measurements from the Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimeter missions. Note the two main areas of anomaly across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina lingers on as ENSO continues to drive pools of warm surface water to the west.
Global SST Anomaly Chart January 24, 2011
Click image to update and enlarge.
Related Links:
Mega Disasters:
Posted in mega disaster, Megadrought, US rainfall | Tagged: El Niño, persistent drought, Southern Plains drought, Texas Drought, US Drought, US southeast drought | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 8, 2010
El Niños Growing Stronger: Study
“A relatively new type of El Niño, which has its warmest waters in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean, rather than in the eastern-equatorial Pacific, is becoming more common and progressively stronger, according to a new study by NASA and NOAA.”
Sea surface temperature anomaly during the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño, the strongest Central Pacific El Niño observed to date.High resolution (Source: NASA JPL).
Current Conditions
Source: NWS/CPC/NOAA
Above is a freeze frame of the top animation posted for comparison.
A new type of El Niño that has been occurring with since the early 1990s. Called “central-Pacific El Niño,” “warm-pool El Niño,” “dateline El Niño” or “El Niño Modoki” (Japanese for “similar but different”), this El Niño causes its maximum ocean warming in the central-equatorial, instead of the eastern, Pacific. “Such central Pacific El Niño events were observed in 1991-92, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-10. Studies have hypothesized that global warming due to human-produced greenhouse gases could shift the warming center of El Niños from the eastern to the central Pacific, further increasing the frequency of such events in the future.” The “new” El Niño appears in the tropical Pacific Ocean on average every 3 to 5 years, researchers say. More…
Related Links:
Posted in central-Pacific El Niño, dateline El Niño, ENSO, warm-pool El Niño | Tagged: eastern-equatorial Pacific, El Niño, El Niño episode, El Niño Modoki, El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on April 8, 2010
Serial No 1,550. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).
Twice More Major Hurricanes in 2010 Than the Century Average : Forecasters
As the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicts an above-average hurricane season for 2010, NOAA NWS fails to adopt a user-friendly hurricane scale.
Hurricane Ike bears down onto the upper Texas coastline with category 2 wind speed of 177 km/hr (110 mph), September, 2008. Thanks to the inadequacies of Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, many could have attested to being hit by a category 3 storm. Image Source: NOAA
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2010
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will see above-average activity with increased chances of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team have predicted.
“We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken.” They said.
They forecast 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 4 of them major, with a 69 percent probability [long-term average probability is 52 percent] at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season which officially begins on June 1 and lasts for 6 months.
Major hurricanes are those classified as Category 3a or above on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of at least 178 km per hour (111 mph).
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2010. Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University (By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray)
Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane making landfall on the following coastal areas:
- Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century: 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45% (average for last century: 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 44% (average for last century: 30%)
Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane tracking into Caribbeans (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
- 58% (average for last century: 42%)
The forecasters estimate:
- 8 hurricanes (average: 5.9),
- 15 named storms (average: 9.6)
- 75 named storm days (average: 49.1)
- 35 hurricane days (average: 24.5)
- 4 major (Category 3,4 or 5) hurricanes (average: 2.3)
- 10 major hurricane days (average: 5.0).
- The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average.
- Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is expected to be about 160 percent of the long-term average.
Related Links:
Posted in Atlantic hurricane season, hurricane, Philip J. Klotzbach, Tropical storm, William M. Gray | Tagged: 2010 atlantic hurricane season, 2010 hurricane forecast, Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures, Colorado State University, El Niño, storm | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on March 30, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 29 March 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
- Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave
- Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Click images to enlarge.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
- The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persists into the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 6 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño update, El Niño update MARCH 2010, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index | Tagged: El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño conditions, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño latest, El Niño report, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, La Niña episode, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on March 21, 2010
Worst fears about El Niño may come true
The El Niño, formally known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short, is the most significant cause of large-scale climate variability in the tropics. El Niño episodes bring warmer than normal waters to the central and eastern Pacific Ocean from Indonesia in the western end to South America in the eastern end of the ocean, helping to maintain the above-normal sea surface temperatures.
Figure below shows one of these Kelvin Waves progressing across the Pacific in February 2010.
Kelvin Wave Renews El Niño
The globes show sea surface height anomalies, which means places where the water surface is higher (red) or lower (blue) than average. A higher-than-average sea surface height at a given location indicates that there is a deeper-than-normal layer of warm water. Lower-than-average sea surface height indicates a shallower layer of warm water. The globes are based on 10 days of data centered on January 15, January 30, and February 15.
In January (left-hand globe), sea surface heights across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were elevated (red), but not extremely so, potentially a sign that El Niño was weakening. But in early February, a strong sea level anomaly appeared northeast of Australia (center globe). This swell of deep, warm water is the start of the Kelvin wave, and by late February, it had spread eastward into the central Pacific (right-hand globe) and re-invigorated the current El Niño.
Where do Kelvin waves come from? Under normal conditions, the tropics’ prevailing easterly winds push Sun-warmed surface waters across the Pacific from the Americas toward Indonesia, creating a deep pool of warm water in the western Pacific. During an El Niño, the trade winds falter, and sometimes even reverse, for months. When the winds that maintain the warm pool falter, a large pulse of warm water from the western Pacific slides back toward the east. NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, Kevin Ward, and Robert Simmon. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, based on interpretation provided by Josh Willis and Bill Patzert, NASA JPL.
Related Links
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in El Niño episode, ENSO, Equatorial Pacific, Kelvin Waves, Trade winds | Tagged: climate pattern, Climate Prediction, El Niño, Pacific Ocean, Tropics | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 18, 2010
The following entry is adopted from a NOAA site. They say their researchers have found clues in stratosphere, troposphere and Arctic Vortex that help them unravel El Niño’s ‘mysteries.’
Unraveling El Niño’s Mysteries: New Clues Found in Stratosphere, Troposphere and Arctic Vortex
El Niño’s emergence in the Pacific Ocean creates ripple effects that extend around the globe.
El Niño (Spanish for “the little boy”) is a natural phenomenon that refers to irregular periods of sea surface temperature warming in the tropical Pacific that impacts global weather patterns.
Supercell. Source NOAA. Click image to enlarge.
El Niño influences our weather: Ocean temperature, air temperature, ocean currents, winds at various altitudes, air pressure … , and its effects are even more complicated by human-caused climate change.
El Niño causes weather chaos across the globe:
- More intense storms in the West Coast of United States, but fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast.
- India, southeastern Africa, northern Brazil, and Australia usually experience dramatically drier conditions. Shifts in patterns are even stronger in other parts of the world.
Layers of the atmosphere. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.
El Niño creates highly complex “ripples” that alter atmospheric features from the ocean surface right up to the stratosphere, high above the Earth.
The stratosphere, a layer of the atmosphere beginning about five miles above sea level, influences weather at ground level. The stratospheric layer of the atmosphere is located above the troposphere.
The troposphere begins at the Earth’s surface and extends up to 6-20 km (4-12 miles) high. We occupy this layer. The stratosphere begins above the troposphere and extends up to 50 km above the Earth’s surface. This layer holds 19 percent of the atmosphere’s gases but very little water vapor.
Researchers say they have recently found a connection between another atmospheric feature, swirling upper-level winds called the Arctic vortex, and colder than average winters in Europe. They have found links between three factors that also influence the Arctic vortex:
- El Niño
- Cooling of the tropical stratosphere
- Warming of the Arctic stratosphere
More information on El Niño :
Posted in Arctic vortex, atmosphere, Pacific Ocean, stratosphere, Supercell | Tagged: El Niño, sea surface temperature warming, Tropical Pacific, troposphere, weather chaos | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 17, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 15 March 2010
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (ºC)
Since the beginning of June 2009, SST anomalies have been at least +0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific. During December 2009, positive SST anomalies increased across much of the equatorial Pacific. From late December 2009 to mid-February 2010, positive SST anomalies decreased across portions of the central and east-central Pacific. Recently, positive SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across the central and east-central Pacific (area pointed to by red arrow in the diagram below).
Y: Time – X: Longitude - [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.5ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~0 (- 0.3ºC)
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific, except for an area of warming west of the Date Line.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
- In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Since mid-February 2010, the downwellingphase of another oceanic Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 5 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño update, El Niño update MARCH 2010, La Niña episode, SST anomalies | Tagged: El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño conditions, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño latest, El Niño report, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Tropical Pacific SST | 6 Comments »
Posted by feww on January 26, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 25 January 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.
Click image to enlarge.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and eastern Atlantic Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Click image to enlarge.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From late November to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across the U.S. and southern Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since early January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has strengthened over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northern and western U.S. Troughs and below-average temperatures have prevailed over the southeastern U.S. This recent pattern is typical of ElNiño.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in El Niño 2010, El Niño impact, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | 6 Comments »
Posted by feww on January 7, 2010
Tanzania: Days of torrential rain have triggered floods, displacing thousands
Up to 25,000 people have been affected after days of torrential rain which flooded Morogoro and Dodoma, Tanzania, International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported.
About 25,000 people affected, so far, with more than a thousand people displaced and at least 10 reported killed, most of whom were swept away by raging waters.
UN Map of Tanzania. Click image to enlarge.
“Around 2,000 homes in Kilosa were engulfed by the rising waters and more than half of these were completely destroyed.” IFRC said.
“Some 23 camps each housing up to 100 families have been established across the region to secure safe ground for the displaced families. Many schools have been converted to serve as evacuation centers for the homeless but, with the new term approaching, it is not yet clear where these people will go next.
“The damage to infrastructure has been immense. Roads and connecting bridges have been swept away, and parts of the country’s railway line left impassable hampering the country’s transportation system.
“The waters have submerged acres of crops and pasture lands and flooded many wells that serve as the main water source for communities. As a result, some health centres are already reporting cases of cholera and acute watery diarrhea.” IFRC added
Red Cross disaster management coordinator said: “The biggest problem we need to address is shelter.
“We found hundreds of families huddled together in an open field, stranded and cold. We face an enormous task of meeting their needs, being the first agency on the ground and with the local authorities largely dependent on our response efforts.
“The situation is getting worse and, with more regions such as Shinyanga added to those devastated by the storms, a lot remains to be done,” he added.
“The El Niño rains are not only wrecking havoc in Tanzania but its impact is also being felt in neighbouring Kenya,” said Brennan Banks, IFRC’s disaster operations manager.
“The heavy showers are expected to continue through the whole of next month according to meteorological reports.”
Related Links:
Posted in IFRC, Kenya, Kilosa, Morogoro, Shinyanga | Tagged: climate refugees, disaster operations, Dodoma, El Niño, flood refugees, refugee shelter, Tanzania, Tanzania floods | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 5, 2010
Not All Kenyans Born with a Silver Spoon!
Floods in Kenya cause large-scale destruction, displacement and death
News Release from Kenya Red Cross
Torrential rains and floods in Kenya have continued to cause massive destruction, displacement and death. The Kenya Red Cross Secretary General updated the media on the countrywide situation at a press meeting in Nairobi on 5th January 2010.
At least 30,000 people urgently need relief assistance due to the ongoing floods, and an estimated 70,000 people are at risk as the rains are expected to continue until the end of January 2010.
A collapsed mud house. After days of torrential rain, all that remains of a house is a corrogated metal roof. Source: Kenya Red Cross.
Some districts in Kenya are experiencing heavy rains and floods that have caused deaths, destruction of property and displacement of hundreds of people. At least 20 people and thousands of livestock are feared dead due to the current floods that have submerged or swept away swaths of farmlands.
Four districts in Kenya are experiencing heavy rains and floods that have caused deaths, destruction of property and displacement of hundreds of people. At least 20 people and thousands of livestock are feared dead due to the current floods that have submerged or swept away swaths of farmlands.
North Rift
Four districts have been severely affected by floods in the North Rift Region, following the heavy rains experienced over the past two weeks.
In Turkana East District, at least 20,000 people have been affected by floods following heavy rains received in the area, with devastating impact on livestock, farms, infrastructure and households. Katilu and Nakwamoru irrigation schemes are the worst hit, with floods washing away sorghum and maize crops. Five people have been confirmed dead. Some 800 acres of food crops have been destroyed and five bridges washed away, 6,664 houses destroyed, two schools destroyed and two health centres damaged. The livestock deaths include shoats (4,362), cattle (235), donkeys (60) and camels (351).
In East Pokot District, River Nginyang has burst its banks and residents in downstream areas such as Chemolingot have been advised to move to higher grounds.
In West Pokot District floods have affected more than 160 households in Kongelai and destroyed 60 houses. The floods also have cut off the main Kenya-Sudan road. In Marigat area, more than 400 households have been affected by floods. More …
Related Links:
Posted in Climate Change, climate refugees, crop damage, heavy rains in Kenya, West Pokot District floods | Tagged: El Niño, flood deaths, kenya disaster, kenya flood, Turkana East District | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on December 18, 2009
Deadly Landslides in Peruvian city of Ayacucho Kills a Dozen People, Injures Dozens More with Many Missing
Mudslides triggered by heavy rain have killed about a dozen people, injuring dozens more in the southern Peruvian city of Ayacucho.
The death toll is expected to rise, the authorities said.
5 people were reportedly killed when a torrent of mud swept their cars and buried them.
The torrential rainfall, which lasted for about 20 hours, washed thousands of tons of mud and rock from the surrounding hills and filled the streets of Ayacucho, transforming them into rivers of mud, and destroying many structures in their paths.
Bodies are still being dug out of the mud, as meteorologists forecast even more intense seasonal rains.
Peru is probably experiencing a mild El Nino effect, a number of climatologists have suggested.
Related Links:
Posted in Extreme Rain Events, flood, Human-enhanced-natural-disasters, Landslide, mudslide | Tagged: Andes, Ayacucho landslide, El Niño, Peru landslide, peru mudslide | 4 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 15, 2009
El Niño May Continue into Summer 2010 [and Beyond]
El Niño Weekly Update [14 Dec 2009]
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 December 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.8ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (ºC)
- LongitudeTimeDuring November 2008-February 2009, negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies covered the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Since the beginning of June 2009, SST anomalies have been at least +0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific.
- During October 2009, positive SST anomalies increased across much of the equatorial Pacific.
- During November 2009, positive SST anomalies remained nearly unchanged.
- Recently, positive SST anomalies increased across the east-central Pacific.
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across portions of the eastern half of the Pacific. Click image to enlarge.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesSince
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. Click image to enlarge.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
Click image to enlarge.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During the last half of October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridging over the higher latitudes. By early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights near Alaska. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States and below-average temperatures in Alaska. Since late November, the pattern has reversed again with below-average heights in the mid-latitudes and above-average heights over Alaska.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 December 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 [and beyond.]
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
- El Niño [Main Page and Links Archive.]
Posted in Climate Prediction, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies | Tagged: El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño spring 2010, El Niño update, El Niño update December 2009, El Niño weekly report, Tropical Pacific SST | 14 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 9, 2009
Climate Change Lie #10
Climategate: Courtesy of rent-a-scientist crowd at UK’s East Anglia University (UEA) who dabble on both sides of the fence
The new, fool the uninformed public disinformation go along the following lines:
What Climate Change? Warm weather anywhere? Ice melting? Drought and Deluge? When was the last time there was even heavy rain other than the Monsoon in India? El Niño was a once in a lifetime affair that occurred in the last century!
David Holland, an electrical engineer [graduated when the mains still carried DC current] saying that it was “like David versus Goliath” as he took on the rest of the British scientific community:
“These guys called climate scientists have not done any more physics or chemistry than I did. A lifetime in engineering gives you a very good antenna. It also cures people of any self belief they cannot be wrong. You clear up a lot of messes during a lifetime in engineering. I could be wrong on global warming – I know that – but the guys on the other side don’t believe they can ever be wrong.”
David Holland, the Lech Walesa of climate change denialland, is seeking prosecutions against some of Britain’s “most eminent academics” for allegedly holding back information in breach of disclosure laws. Photo: DAVID ROSE. Source: The Daily Telegraph, UK. Image may be subject to copyright.
He’s right about one thing: Don’t buy a second-hand car from the British climatologist, economist, Cambridge physicists, Oxford wranglers, UEA hagglers…
Some of our UK-based colleagues had previously expressed their distrust of
- British “climatologists” (starting with Lord Stern)
- The University of East Anglia boffins, especially their climatologists and modelers
- Some of the senior staff at Hadley Climate Research Unit
Sure enough in the time old James Bond tradition, a spy who came in from the cold, a true professional who was not commercially motivated:
- Guessed that leading British scientists at the University of East Anglia were manipulating climate change data. [Who told him the boffins were on to something?]
- Managed to hack the email accounts of two dozen scientists (hacker had nothing to do with the Virgin empire) at UEA. [Who told him how to break into the UEA computer.]
- Found incriminating evidence that Climate Change was a great hoax. [Who told him where to find exactly what he was looking for on the computer?]
- Located a Russian server [somehow that was meant to lend more street cred] to host the stolen emails [And NO! Neither the British mega-business, nor the British govt agents played any part in that.]
Singlehandedly, the Lech Walesa—he was an electrical engineer, too—of climate change denialland, shot a big hole through the climate change theory, mortally wounding the discredited myth [sic.] As a UK blogger proudly put it:
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming!’
Conclusion: Climate Change Lie #10 is all about doing business as usual.
As Warren Buffett, the Sausage from Omaha, put it:
Related Links:
Posted in Anthropogenic Global Warming, climategate, denialland, Global Warming, Hadley CRU | Tagged: David Holland, El Niño, Lord Stern, Rent-a-scientist, University of East Anglia | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 9, 2009
Average decadal temp rose by 74 percent compared with the 1990′s
Decadal temp average rose by 0.4ºC in the last decade (2000 – 2009) compared with 3 decades 1961 to 1990, while the 1990s decade was 0.23 degrees higher.
Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change
Click images to enlarge
Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. [This is an update of Fig. 1A in Hansen et al. (2006)] January-September (9 months) mean is used for 2009 data. Credit: NASA/GISS.
Annual Mean Temperature Change for Hemispheres
Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes for the northern (red) and southern (blue) hemispheres. Credit: NASA/GISS.
Annual Mean Temperature Change for Land and Ocean
Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes for the land (green) and ocean (purple). Credit: NASA/GISS.
Global Mean Surface Temperature vs. Year and Month
Diagram should be self-explanatory. Credit: NASA/GISS.
2009 Likely to Be Fifth Warmest Year on Record
This year is set to be the fifth warmest, and this decade the hottest ever on record —WMO
WMO head Michel Jarraud, speaking in Copenhagen, said 2009 was likely to be the fifth warmest year on record, and the first decade of this century the hottest ever. Referring to the world’s worst hotspots, he added that Australia had experienced its third warmest year since 1850, “with three exceptional heatwaves.”
“I could go on. There was the worst drought in five decades which affected millions of people in China, a poor monsoon season in India causing severe droughts, massive food shortages associated with a big drought in Kenya,” he said.
Jarraud also referred to extreme floods throughout the world, including the deluge in Burkina Faso, which broke a 90-year record, as well as the third lowest summer Arctic sea ice cover on record, marking the trend for the third consecutive year.
When will a new record be set?
1998 was the hottest year on record, which coincided with a powerful El Nino. 2009 saw a new El Nino developing.
“It’s getting warmer and warmer. The warming trend is increasing.” Jarraud said. “Its just a matter of years before we break the [1998] record.”
“It’s difficult to say [when a new record will be set] because of the variability. The first time there will be a strong El Nino the temperature will be greater than before.”
“Jarraud rejected a ‘climategate’ row over leaked emails from Britain’s [rent-a-scientist] University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), which showed some scientists’ efforts to boost the credibility of climate change at the expense of skeptics.”
The WMO temperature analysis used two U.S. data sources, as well as the British CRU. “The three separately show almost identical results,” said Jarraud.
“The fact that the record for the hottest year has not been broken since 1998 has helped fuel arguments from a small minority of scientists that climate change may not be as severe as feared.” Reuters reported.
UK MetOffice Hadley Centre’s head, Vicky Pope said the temperatures had “climbed slightly” in the past decade. “There hasn’t been a cooling [since the 1998 record.]“
Analyzed on a decadal basis, the temperature rose by 0.4 degrees Celsius in the last decade (2000 – 2009) compared with the average in the three decades 1961 to 1990, while the 1990s decade was 0.23 degrees higher, according to Pope.
“Essentially what’s happened is we’ve gone into [a permanent?] El Niño,” she said. [El Niño weather pattern can cause havoc in global weather system.]
Related Links:
Posted in Climate Change, climategate, drought and deluge, extreme rain, record heat | Tagged: Burkina Faso deluge, El Niño, Fifth Warmest year, flood, heat wave, hotest ever decade, WMO report | Leave a Comment »
