Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Posts Tagged ‘long-lived greenhouse gases’

Sudden Surges in Atmospheric CO2: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Posted by feww on July 23, 2013

Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …

FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO2 concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.

To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.

global co2 may2013
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated.  Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)

FIRE-EARTH - HION Index - 1 JULY 2013 - hsc2
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

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Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, CO2, CO2 Emissions, CO2e | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast

Posted by feww on May 11, 2013

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Crosses 400PPM Milestone at Hawaii Observatory

On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.

Last 5 days of daily average CO2

May 09 – 400.03  |  May 08 – 399.42  |  May 07 – 399.59  |  May 06 – 399.43 |  May 05 – 399.47  |

This is the first time the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in Hawaii tops 400ppm since measurement began in 1958, according to ESRL data.

The rise to 400ppm level of the atmospheric carbon dioxide represents yet another appalling milestone in the brief history of the homo ignarus.

The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much carbon dioxide was probably as many as 5 million years ago.

dwaco2mlo
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa.  The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]

Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

  • Week of April 28, 2013: 399.58 ppm
  • Weekly value from 1 year ago: 396.81 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago: 378.50 ppm

Recent Global CO2

  • February 2013: 395.98 ppm
  • February 2012: 393.05 ppm

Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

  • March 2013: 397.34 ppm
  • March 2012: 394.45 ppm

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Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar, carbon-intensive economy, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Update

Posted by feww on April 29, 2013

Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory 

  • Week of April 21, 2013:     398.68 ppm
  • Weekly value from 1 year ago:     396.66 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago:     378.46 ppm

One Year of  CO2 daily and weekly means at Mauna Loa

co2- weekly mlo
The graph, updated weekly, shows as individual points daily mean CO2 up to and including the week (Sunday through Saturday) previous to today. The daily means are based on hours during which CO2 was likely representative of “background” conditions, defined as times when the measurement is representative of air at mid-altitudes over the Pacific Ocean. That air has had several days time or more to mix, smoothing out most of the CO2 variability encountered elsewhere, making the measurements representative of CO2 over hundreds of km or more. The selection process is designed to filter out any influence of nearby emissions, or removals, of CO2 such as caused by the vegetation on the island of Hawaii, and likewise emissions from the volcanic crater of Mauna Loa.  Source: ESRL/NOAA

Recent Mauna Loa CO2

  • March 2013:     397.34 ppm
  • March 2012:     394.45 ppm

Recent Global CO2

  • February 2013:     395.98 ppm
  • February 2012:     393.05 ppm

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Posted in carbon dioxide, carbon emissions, carbon footprint, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

400 PPM

Posted by feww on April 3, 2013

Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH projections show, based on the data provided by Mauna Loa Observatory, the average CO2 at Mauna Loa could climb to 400ppm in the next 6 weeks.

Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

  • Week of March 24, 2013:     397.92 ppm
  • Weekly value from 1 year ago:     395.30 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago:     377.06 ppm

CO2-1y-dwm
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa [April 2012 - March 2013.]  The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]  

Recent Mauna Loa CO2

  • February 2013:     396.80 ppm
  • February 2012:     393.54 ppm

CO2-mm-mlo
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. [Source:  ESRL/NOAA]

CO2-MLO
Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii [Source:  ESRL/NOAA]

Recent Global CO2

  • January 2013:     395.09 ppm
  • January 2012:     392.44 ppm

CO2-gl
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. [Images sourced from ESRL/NOAA]

Historic

Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2012.

long-lived ghg
Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005].  Source: ESRL/NOAA.  Click on image to view larger image. Click HERE for full size figure .

Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, CO2, CO2e, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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