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Posts Tagged ‘Mississippi river’

Deadly Storms Attack U.S. Heartland

Posted by feww on July 2, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
DEADLY STORMS
SEVERE FLOODING
SCENARIOS 900, 444, 111, 066, 023
.

Tornadoes, high winds, hail and heavy rain batter Midwest

Illinois and battered by fierce storms, as heavy rains caused severe flooding and fires caused by lightning cut power to hundreds of thousands of people and forced hundreds of flight cancellations.

Iowa was hit by 90 mph (145 kph) winds and 4 inch (10 cm) hail, which caused significant damage to vehicles and buildings.  At least one person was killed when a building collapsed in heavy winds, according to local reports.

Tornado outbreaks caused damage in northern Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa, according to SPC.

In Cedar Rapids, Iowa’s second largest city, rescue teams recovered the body of a 17-year-old student who was swept into a storm drain, after torrential rains triggered flooding.

Severe flooding currently occurring in multiple areas along the Missouri and Mississippi rivers.
30jun

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States of Emergency Declared due to Flooding, Fire…

Posted by feww on June 26, 2014

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
SEVERE FLOODING
FOREST FIRE
STATES OF EMERGENCY

SCENARIOS 900, 444, 111, 101, 023
.

Mechanicville Declares State Of Emergency

A state of emergency has been declared in Mechanicville City, NY, due to severe flooding.

No traffic is being allowed in or out of the city, and residents are told to stay indoors until further notice. “A boil water advisory is in effect for the city,” said a report.

“Thunderstorms have dropped one to two inches of rain in parts of Washington, Rensselaer and Saratoga Counties and more rain is in the forecast.”

Forest fires cause state of emergency in Krasnoyarsk region

The authorities in central Siberia’s Krasnoyarsk region have declared a state of emergency due to forest fires, most of which are burning in hard-to-reach terrain, the region’s acting Natural Resources and Ecology Minister told reporters, said a report.

Aided by hot, dry weather, more than 50 forest fires have consumed at least 2,000 hectares.

State Of Emergency Declared In St. Paul, Minn. due to Flooding

St. Paul Mayor has  declared a state of emergency as the Mississippi River continues to rise there causing severe flooding, said a report.  “It’s the same situation in Ramsey County, and Harriet Island is under water.”

St-Colomban, Que. Canada

The town of St-Colomban, Que., has declared a  state of emergency after heavy rain flooded roads, triggered landslides and inundated sewers, said a report.

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Six U.S. Fisheries to Receive Disaster Relief

Posted by feww on February 27, 2014

Fishery Disasters caused by tsunami,  river flood, drought … and Hurricane Sandy

Six fisheries across the U.S. that were declared fishery disasters in 2012 and 2013 will receive $75 million in disaster relief funds, announced NOAA.

The allocations from the disaster relief fund will go to

  • Commercial fisheries in American Samoa (damaged by the tsunami of 2009)
  • Commercial fisheries in Mississippi (affected by the Mississippi River flood of 2011)
  • The New England multispecies groundfish fishery for the 2013 season
  • Alaska’s Chinook salmon fishery for 2011 and 2012 (near collapses)
  • The Florida oyster fishery in the Gulf of Mexico (damaged by  drought in 2012)
  • Fisheries in New York and New Jersey (destroyed or damaged by Hurricane Sandy in 2012)

Posted in 2011 Disaster Calendar, 2012 Disaster Calendar, 2014 global disasters, Climate Change, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global disasters 2013, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Extreme Weather Hits Midsection US

Posted by feww on April 23, 2013

Temperatures to plunge 30 degrees below normal, as flooding displaces thousands 

As a strong cold front pushes across the central U.S. on Tuesday, parts of the central & southern Plains can expect winter-like precipitation, stretching from Colorado across Kansas and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and into southern Iowa. The precipitation should taper off by Tuesday evening. In addition, temperatures will be as much as 30 degrees below normal across the region on Tuesday. —NWS

Meantime, at least six rivers in Illinois have surged to record levels, inundating homes and businesses and displacing thousands of people, as extreme weather continued across parts of central and southern Plains.

The hardest hit communities, including Elmhurst, Des Plaines, River Forest, Bellwood, Riverside, Moline, Quincy, Bartonville, North Aurora, Marseilles, Ottawa, North Utica and Morris.

“We have seen some of the worst flooding damage to neighborhoods and homes across our state in Illinois history,” said Illinois Governor Quinn, declaring 44 counties state disaster areas.

Counties included in the state disaster declaration are Adams, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass, Champaign, Cook, DeKalb, Douglas, DuPage, Fulton, Greene, Grundy, Hancock, Henderson, Henry, Jersey, Jo Daviess, Kane, Kendall, Knox, Lake, LaSalle, Livingston, Marshall, Mason, McDonough, McHenry, Mercer, Morgan, Ogle, Peoria, Pike, Putnam, Rock Island, Schuyler, Scott, Stark, Tazewell, Whiteside, Will, Winnebago and Woodford.

US weather hazmap - 23apr2013
US Weather Hazards Map. Source: NWS

Missouri: Gov. Nixon declared a state of emergency in Missouri on Friday after a strong storm system that included heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in many parts of the state and to rapidly rising rivers levels on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.

“The sustained periods of heavy rainfall has swollen creeks and streams and is pushing the Mississippi River over flood levels, endangering river communities,” declared Nixon.

Flood Warnings

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Flooding Warnings in parts of at least 16 states, as more rain continued to swell rivers in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi.

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Mississippi River breaks flood record at Natchez

Posted by feww on May 12, 2011

Mississippi River Tops 58.65 feet (17,88m) at Natchez

America’s largest river to crest at  64feet (19.51m) on May 21

Having broken the previous record of 58.04 ft set on February 21, 1937, America’s largest river is expected to crest at a whopping 64feet (19.51m; flow rate of 2,380kcfs ) on May 21.

Kcfs: Thousand cubic feet per second – multiply by 28,317 to get liters per second

Historical Crests
(1) 58.04 ft on 02/21/1937
(2) 57.03 ft on 04/24/2008
(3) 56.70 ft on 05/13/1973
(4) 56.60 ft on 05/04/1927
(5) 56.30 ft on 03/26/1997
(6) 55.70 ft on 05/31/1983
(7) 55.30 ft on 04/26/1922
(8) 55.20 ft on 04/29/1945
(9) 54.60 ft on 04/23/1979
(10) 54.50 ft on 06/05/1929


Map of Mississippi River Basin. Source: University of Missouri

The Mississippi River Flooding Impact

So far the flooding has :

  • Forced tens of thousands of people along the river and its tributaries to  evacuate
  • Inundated dozens of river towns
  • Swamped about 3.5 million acres of farmland (at least 3 million acres in three states of  Arkansas  Mississippi, Tennessee)
  • Put in need of shelter tens of thousands of farm animals
  • Threatens  New Orleans and Baton Rouge (Morganza Spillway in Louisiana may have to be opened to relive some of the pressure)
  • Threatens to swamp more than 3 million acres of farm and wetlands in Louisiana

The flooding has also shut down  16 casinos in  Mississippi  (a silver lining?) threatening to swamp another two in Vicksburg, according to Mississippi Gaming Commission, where the river is expected to crest at 57.5ft (flow rate: 2,340kcfs) on May 19.

Related Links

Global Mega Disasters

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Mississippi River Still Rising

Posted by feww on May 9, 2011

Worst flood disaster in the Mississippi watershed since 1927?

Memphis braces for the highest Mississippi River crest in 74 years

By now it must have dawned on many that the extreme weather events and disasters occurring since about 2008 are parts of a bigger picture!

“Right now the Mississippi River is in the process of going through what we call an epic flood, meaning it’s more than historic; it’s more than a 100-year flood; it’s more like a 500 year flood.” Gene Rench of the National Weather Service said.

In the Mississippi flood of 1927 , one of the biggest disasters in US history, affecting about 24,000 square miles, up to 1,000 people perished and more than 600,000 were left homeless.

Water continued rising along the Mississippi River on May 8


Severe flooding along Mississippi floodplain south of New-Madrid Floodway. The largest in the country, the Mississippi River watershed drains more than 41 percent of the continental United States including all or parts of 31 states. Image taken by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite on May 8, 2011. Click image to enlarge. Image Source: NASA-EO. Download largest  image (9 MB, JPEG).

More details of flooding

  • The tsunami of floodwater is moving at about 10MPH (16km/h)
  • Tens of thousands more people may have to evacuate their homes along the Mississippi River
  • Mississippi is expected to crest in Osceola, Arkansas, in a few hours time (early Monday)
  • In Memphis the river is expected to crest above 48 feet on Tuesday
  • Police in Memphis have issued evacuation warnings to about 3,000 homes
  • Shelby County residents are warned to be prepared to evacuate at short notice
  • Record crests are forecast for Vicksburg (May 19) and Natchez (May 21)
  • Missouri floodway has been opened for the first in 74 year to reduce flood pressure
  • Bonnet Carre Spillway north of New Orleans is due to be opened later today to divert some of the flow to Lake Pontchartrain
  • Morganza spillway may have to be opened to divert floodwater to Atchafalaya Basin, the largest swamp in the U.S.
  • The flooding is expected to dwarf previous records set in 1927 and 1937, when the Lower Mississippi flooded to 80 miles wide in some areas.
  • The flooding is a “midterm dividend” of climate change: Higher than normal snowfall in the winter, and above normal rainfall this spring.
  • Residents of Olive Branch, Illinois,  evacuated their homes as flooding hit the town.
  • In Kentucky up to 10,000 people have already evacuated their homes.

River Forecast Centers


Click image to enter RFC portal.

*****ALERT: Major Flooding Forecast on Mainstem Mississippi and Lower Ohio Rivers*****

On March 1, 2011, FIRE-EARTH forecast

U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather

Brace for the Worst Ever!  Climatic  Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond…

NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.  Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE  for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

Flooding and fires, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, deadly tornadoes and strong storms … are just some of the items you’ve ordered from the climate change quick menu!

From 2011 Disaster Calendar – May

  • Day 493 [May 8, 2011]

    • Quebec, Canada. The worst flooding in Quebec in 150 years has destroyed or damaged at least 3,000 homes, leaving about 2,800 people homeless.
      • “People are getting around in canoes, rowboats and watercraft, with the water so high it has left some houses half-submerged.”
      • Lake Champlain has risen to a record 103.26 feet above sea level, the U.S. National Weather Service reported.  Flood stage is 100 feet!
    • Arkansas, USA.  Severe flooding in parts of Arkansas will have a “serious and long-term economic impact” on the state, Gov Beebe has said.
      •  “There’s going to be an agricultural impact … problem with aid or assistance on agricultural losses is that traditionally the … Department of Agriculture is a couple of years behind, time-wise, on those kinds of assessments, so you’ve got a tough period to go through for those farmers,” he said.
      • “Economically on agriculture it’s going to be very difficult, and devastating for some.”
    • Vermont, USA.  Hundreds of homes have been destroyed or damaged as a result of lake Lake Champlain flooding, a report said.
    • USA. Thousands of people living along the Mississippi River have evacuated their homes in at least six states as the rising river continues to top all  previous levels.
  • Day 494 [May 9, 2011]

    • Manitoba, Canada.  Brandon city council has declared a state of emergency was the Assinibione River continues to rise.
    • Arkansas, USA. Gov Beebe has declared 63 of Arkansas’ 75 counties as disaster areas following the recent storms and flooding, which have claimed more than 2 dozen lives, reports say.
    • Mississippi, USA. The W.H. has declared as disaster areas 11 counties in Mississippi, where   Mimajor flooding is expected, reports say.


Related Links

Global Mega Disasters

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BP-NM Before and After Flooding Satellite Images

Posted by feww on May 6, 2011

Flooding at the Confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers 

Before image below shows the New Madrid Floodway south of Cairo, Illinois and the confluence of the two rivers inundated after Birds Point Levee was intentionally breached on May 2, 2011


Click image to enlarge.
Download largest image (5 MB, JPEG) — acquired May 3, 2011

After image of the area was acquired on April 14, 2010 and is used as reference.


Click image to enlarge.
Download largest image (5 MB, JPEG).   Images were taken by Landsat-5 satellite. Source: NASA-EO.

Related Links




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Heavy rain, flash floods for Ohio, Mississippi valleys

Posted by feww on May 3, 2011

UPDATE: The first levee at Birds Point has been breached, just after 10 p.m.  

‘Heavy rains driving flash flooding and river flooding to record levels': NWS

Torrential rain is forecast  for today in parts of 11 already soaking states:
  • Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama.
Heavy rain is also forecast Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of 6 states:
  • Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

More than 4 inches of rain is forecast in SW Indiana, S. Illinois and W. Kentucky and about 5 inches in central Arkansas, NWS said.

Five-day precipitation forecast (NWS)


Click images to enlarge.

Weather Hazards Map (NWS)

Weather Forecast Map

Flash Flooding

“Flash Flooding is expected today in an eight-state swath from east-central Texas to southwestern Ohio. The area also includes southeastern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana, southwest Ohio, western Tennessee, west-central and northern Kentucky. Rain and thundershowers are forecast from central Texas to the eastern and southern Great Lakes. Heavy snow is possible in north-central Washington and light to moderate snow is possible for south-central Wyoming, central Colorado and north-central New Mexico.” NWS said.

Flooding Rivers

Mississippi, Ohio Rivers Still Rising; Cairo Evacuated

The Army Corps of Engineers have reportedly completed the preparation stage and are ready to blow a hole in Birds Point levee in Missouri by 12:00pm local time.


This photo shows natural overtopping at the frontline levee on the Mississippi River on the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway.
(Photo: Southeast Missourian/reader submitted).

Once the levee is breached, water at a rate of about 550,000 cubic feet per second will divert from the Mississippi River, causing the water level in the river  near  Cairo to drop by up to seven feet, a report said.

The intentional breaching  of BP-NM floodway is expected to flood more than  130,000 acres and about 200 properties in Mississippi County, Missouri, “and will be devastating to farmers and agricultural businesses in and around the floodway. The floodway has not been placed in operation since the 1937 flood.”

Cairo, Ill. Satellite Image


Small city of Cairo (at center of this astronaut photo) sits at the confluence of Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. “Flooding of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers presents a continual danger to the city; this danger is lessened by the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway that begins directly to the south of the river confluence. During major flood events, the floodway lessens flood stages upstream (such as at Cairo) and adjacent to the floodway. Part of the extensive levee system associated with flood control of the Mississippi River is visible in the image. Barlow Bottoms (image right), located in adjacent Kentucky, is a wetland bird-watching location that is replenished by periodic floods and releases of Ohio River water.” Astronaut photograph ISS012-E-15035 was acquired January 12, 2006. Source: NASA-EO.  Download large image (583 KB, JPEG)

Blowing a 2-mile hole in the levee

The corps plans to blow a 2-mile hole at the southern end of the floodway to drain the water from the farmlands about 24 hours after the first round of detonations,  a report said. The detonations are set to began by midnight Monday.


Flood Zone. Frame grab from an abc news clip. Click image to enlarge.

“Public safety remains the No. 1 issue for the corps of engineers,” the Corps commander said.

“[The levee] continues to be under enormous and unprecedented pressure,” he added. “The Cairo gauge has gone up a foot and a half since yesterday. It’s going to continue to rise.”

“This doesn’t end this historic flood,” he said. “This is just the beginning.”

Missouri farmers on the flood plane are extremely anxious. They fear their lands would be destroyed by toxic sludge after the floodwaters have receded.

Related Links

UPDATED @ 03:31UTC, May 3, 2011

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Mississippi, Ohio Rivers Still Rising; Cairo Evacuated

Posted by feww on May 1, 2011

Army Corps of Engineers on standby to blow a hole in Birds Point levee in Missouri

A “sand boil,” an area of excessive water seepage pushing through the ground, has become dangerously large, as the Corps closely monitors rising river levels, expected to crest, surpassing the 60 feet mark by Tuesday.

“That’s not just putting pressure here in Cairo, but the entire system is being put under pressure,” Corps commander said. “This is going to be the biggest amount of stress that these levees have been put under since we started the construction in 1928.”

Blowing up the levee would flood at least 130,000 acres of Missouri farmland, causing severe damage. On the other hand, towns in Illinois and Kentucky could be flooded if the levee were not blown up.

Both the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers have been rising following days of rain which have added to the water levels from the considerably-heavier-than-usual ongoing spring flooding. The city of Cairo (population: 2,800) sits at the confluence of two rivers.


Small city of Cairo (at center of this astronaut photo) sits at the confluence of Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. “Flooding of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers presents a continual danger to the city; this danger is lessened by the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway that begins directly to the south of the river confluence. During major flood events, the floodway lessens flood stages upstream (such as at Cairo) and adjacent to the floodway. Part of the extensive levee system associated with flood control of the Mississippi River is visible in the image. Barlow Bottoms (image right), located in adjacent Kentucky, is a wetland bird-watching location that is replenished by periodic floods and releases of Ohio River water.” Astronaut photograph ISS012-E-15035 was acquired January 12, 2006. Source: NASA-EO.  Download large image (583 KB, JPEG) 

Current Warnings/ Watches

Flooding along Ohio and Mississippi Rivers


Flood conditions along Wabash, Ohio, Black, and Mississippi Rivers are much worse in April 2011 than a year earlier. MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite took these false-color images on April 28, 2011 (top), and April 29, 2010 (bottom). Source: NASA-EO

U-S Flood Map


As of posting, 51 river gauges are reporting major flooding, 80 gauges moderate flooding, 125 gauges minor flooding, and 202 are at near flood stage, as shown in the AHPS map above. Floods are wreaking havoc in the U.S. Midwest, South and the Northeast.

Related Links


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EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

Posted by feww on August 5, 2008

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST


TS Edouard. Infrared Image – Updated every 30 mins. NOAA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…23 KM/HR …AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…29.6 N…94.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

– FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Related Links and More Images:

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TS EDOUARD UPDATE

Posted by msrb on August 5, 2008

Latest UPDATE EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING – WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS.


As of 08/04/2008 17:00 CDT, water levels along the Gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana are elevated between 0.35 ft to 1.25 ft above predicted. Wind gusts up to 35 knots in Louisiana. Water levels along the Texas coast are beginning to rise above predictions. NOAA

THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVEN’T CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.

STRUCTURALLY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO THE CENTER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH THE SHIPS, LGEM AND SUPERENSEMBLE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

THRESHOLD. [IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

– FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD forms in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted by feww on August 4, 2008

Most of the U.S. offshore oil rigs and the Gulf Coast refineries fall within the predicted path of Edouard

EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD – HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


RGB Enhanced Satellite Image – NOAA

More images:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA – GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES (145 KM) SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES (670 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH (6 KM/HR) AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK – THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY – AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH(85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS – EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL
.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER
.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST…TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…28.1 N…88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. — FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Our Dead Zone Largest Ever This Year!

Posted by feww on July 16, 2008

Congratulations! We Are Breaking Another Record: Our Dead Zone in Gulf of Mexico

Alas, the cost of Midwest flooding, the multibillion-dollar crop losses, doesn’t include the damage to our coastal waters and the marine “manna.”

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Summertime satellite observations of ocean color from MODIS/Aqua show highly turbid waters which may include large blooms of phytoplankton extending from the mouth of the Mississippi River all the way to the Texas coast. When these blooms die and sink to the bottom, bacterial decomposition strips oxygen from the surrounding water, creating an environment very difficult for marine life to survive in. Reds and oranges represent high concentrations of phytoplankton and river sediment. Image taken by NASA and provided courtesy of the NASA Mississippi Dead Zone web site.
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The annual dead zone, which stretches from Texas to Louisiana coasts, could grow to about 9,000 square miles (23,300 km²), nearly double the annual average since 1990 of about 4,800 square miles.

This year’s record dead zone is caused by inordinate demand for corn and soybeans which are used to make ethanol to boost gasoline supplies, and by the earlier Midwest flooding.

The massive increases in the use of fertilizers in Midwestern corn country results in the fertilizer run-off that flow down the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. Nitrogen and phosphorus, the main constituents of fertilizers, promote excessive growth and decay of algae which cause severe reductions in water quality. The decaying aquatic vegetation or phytoplankton (an algal bloom) sinks to the bottom of the waters in the Gulf and is broken down by bacteria which consume the dissolved oxygen in the water and produce carbon dioxide.

The bacterial respiration process kills fish, clams, crabs, shrimp, zooplankton and all other species that swim in the water or dwell on the bottom of the Gulf [and other water bodies] creating dead zones.


Red algae completely covers this municipal reservoir. Credit: CASF. Photo date: July 14, 2008. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.

“We’re planting an awful lot of corn and soybeans,” said Eugene Turner, a scientist at Louisiana State University. “It rinses off easily when there is a rain.”

“Excess nutrients from the Mississippi River watershed during the spring are the primary human-influenced factor behind the expansion of the dead zone,” said Rob Magnien, director of the NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research.

One-third of this year’s U.S. corn crop, or 4 billion bushels, will go to make the alternate fuel ethanol, the U.S. government has projected, compared to 3 billion bushels of the 2007 crop. Reuters reported.

Related News Links:

Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” to hit record size: NOAA

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What’s a Hydrokong?

Posted by feww on June 27, 2008

A Shrinking World Series

Is it a mega-tropical storm system, or an extra-tropical cyclone (ETC), i.e., a non-tropical, large-scale low pressure storm system like a Nor’easter?

“Hydrokong” is a colossal atmospheric phenomenon. It’s an extreme precipitation event which is enhanced by circulation changes that increase and concentrate the distribution of water vapor.


Hydrokong! The Storm System as it appeared over the central United States June 12, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.

Globally, as total precipitation increases, the duration or frequency of precipitation events decreases. However, warmer temperatures and regional variation can significantly affect those offsetting behaviors. For example, reduced total precipitation in one region, the Western United States, can significantly increase the intensity of precipitation in another region, the Midwest. Hydrokongs essentially create two extreme events, droughts in one region and flooding caused by mega-intense precipitation in another. As the global temperatures rise, more hydrokongs should be expected.


Another Hydrokong in the making? A new System as it appeared over the central United States June 27, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.


An aviation color enhancement of a floater [updated periodically] satellite image GEOS Eastern U.S. Imagery, NOAA SSD. For full size image right-click on the image and select “View Image.”

In the words of Brian Pierce, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, describing the aftermath of flooding last week: “We are seeing a historic hydrological event taking place with unprecedented river levels occurring.”

Are Extreme Precipitation Events Earth’s Natural Defense Mechanisms?

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Mississippi Levees Breached in 23 Places

Posted by feww on June 20, 2008

A Shrinking World Series

‘We are seeing a historic hydrological event taking place with unprecedented river levels occurring.’ —Brian Pierce, meteorologist, National Weather Service.

Mississippi river surges over at least 23 levees and another 30 barriers are at risk, as the Midwest floods move south.

In 1993, devastating floods, sweeping down Missouri and Mississippi rivers, surged levees and destroyed communities from St. Louis to northern Louisiana.


Mississippi River floodwaters engulf a farm about 15 miles north Quincy, Ill. after the south portion of the Indian Graves levee breached. (Tribune photo by Michael Tercha / June 18, 2008). Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!

Midwest Flood Victims Feel Misled by Feds

“They all told us, `The levees are good. You can go ahead and build,”‘ said Parks, who did not buy flood coverage because her bank no longer required it. “We had so much confidence in those levees.”

“People put all their hopes in those levees, and when they do fail, the damage is catastrophic,” said Paul Osman, the National Flood Insurance Program coordinator for Illinois. “New Orleans is the epitome; a lot of those people didn’t even realize they were in a floodplain until the water was up to their roofs.”

“We reported to the president in ’94 that the levee system was in disarray, the levees were not high enough to take care of any potential problem. People didn’t understand their flood risk and there wasn’t good co-ordination across federal, state and local governments,” said Gerald Galloway, a professor of engineering and flood control expert.

“The same thing applies today,” Galloway said. “It’s amazing that in the face of [Hurricane] Katrina and now this particular challenge that we continue to relearn the same lessons.”

Galloway’s recommendations to improve the levee system were basically ignored. He said that he’s experiencing much the same response now from officials as in 1993.

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