Your Worst Fears About El Niño

Worst fears about El Niño may come true

The El Niño, formally known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short, is the most significant cause of large-scale climate variability in the tropics. El Niño episodes bring warmer than normal waters to the central and eastern Pacific Ocean from Indonesia in the western end to South America in the eastern end of the  ocean, helping to maintain the above-normal sea surface temperatures.

Figure below shows one of these Kelvin Waves progressing across the Pacific in February 2010.

Kelvin Wave Renews El Niño

The globes show sea surface height anomalies, which means places where the water surface is higher (red) or lower (blue) than average. A higher-than-average sea surface height at a given location indicates that there is a deeper-than-normal layer of warm water. Lower-than-average sea surface height indicates a shallower layer of warm water. The globes are based on 10 days of data centered on January 15, January 30, and February 15.

In January (left-hand globe), sea surface heights across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were elevated (red), but not extremely so, potentially a sign that El Niño was weakening. But in early February, a strong sea level anomaly appeared northeast of Australia (center globe). This swell of deep, warm water is the start of the Kelvin wave, and by late February, it had spread eastward into the central Pacific (right-hand globe) and re-invigorated the current El Niño.

Where do Kelvin waves come from? Under normal conditions, the tropics’ prevailing easterly winds push Sun-warmed surface waters across the Pacific from the Americas toward Indonesia, creating a deep pool of warm water in the western Pacific. During an El Niño, the trade winds falter, and sometimes even reverse, for months. When the winds that maintain the warm pool falter, a large pulse of warm water from the western Pacific slides back toward the east. NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, Kevin Ward, and Robert Simmon. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, based on interpretation provided by Josh Willis and Bill Patzert, NASA JPL.

Related Links

• Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
• Imminent Flood Threat in the U.S. Midwest
• Unraveling El Niño Mysteries
• El Niño Update [15 March 2010]

• El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Chile Quake Moved Cities by 3m

Concepcion: The Roving City Moved by 305cm

The M8.8 megaquake that struck the coast of Chile on February 27, moved the city of Concepcion at least 3 meters (10 feet) to the west, shifting other parts of South America, and places as far apart as the Falkland Islands and Fortaleza, Brazil, researchers say.

Initial measurements, produced from data collected by researchers from four universities and earthquake monitoring centers, as well as geophysicists on the ground in Chile, who depicted the power behind the Chilean megaquake, listed as the fifth-most-powerful instrumentally-recorded earthquake ever.

Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina  moved west by about 2.5cm (1 inch). And Santiago, the Chilean capital, moved about 28cm (11 inches) to the west-southwest. The cities of Mendoza and Valparaiso, located northeast of Concepcion, also moved by more than 13cm, and 27cm respectively.

This partial map of South America shows how far principal cities in Chile moved as a result of the February megaquake. Credit: University of Hawaii. Click Image to enlarge.

This map of South America shows movement of points on the continent as a result of the February megaquake. Credit: University of Hawaii. Click Image to enlarge

The megaquake occurred in a region of the Pacific Ocean which is known as the “Pacific Ring of Fire,” an area of major seismic activity. Major seismic stresses are caused because tectonic plates move press against each other at various fault zones, resulting in earthquakes which release built-up geologic stresses along these convergence zones.

The Chilean megaquake occurred where the Nazca tectonic plate subducted [plunged beneath] the neighboring South American plate.

Related Links:

• Another Strong Aftershock Srikes Chile
• Chile Earthquake Links Page
• FEWW Earthquake Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Volcano Links

Destructive Tsunami Generated by Chile Quake

A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 005
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1045UTC 27 FEB 2010

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS, EXCEPT ALASKA, BRITISH COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. [SEE below for other bulletins with those areas included ]

Chile Tsunami preliminary forecast model energy map (WCATWC/NOAA). Click image to enlarge.

Source: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Click image to enlarge.

* A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT *

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / ANTARCTICA / PANAMA / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / PITCAIRN / HONDURAS / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / FR. POLYNESIA / MEXICO / COOK ISLANDS / KIRIBATI / KERMADEC IS / NIUE / NEW ZEALAND / TONGA / AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA / JARVIS IS. / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU / FIJI / AUSTRALIA / HAWAII / PALMYRA IS. / TUVALU / VANUATU / HOWLAND-BAKER / NEW CALEDONIA / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. / NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / MIDWAY IS. / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / CHUUK / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / INDONESIA / N. MARIANAS / GUAM / YAP / BELAU / JAPAN / PHILIPPINES / CHINESE TAIPEI

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 0634Z 27 FEB 2010
COORDINATES – 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
DEPTH – 55 KM
LOCATION – NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE – 8.8

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0906Z 0.27M / 0.9FT 72MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1007Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 44MIN
DART LIMA 32412 18.0S 86.4W 0941Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 36MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN

LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.

FOR ALL AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
——————————– ———— ————
CHILE TALCAHUANO 36.7S 73.1W 0729Z 27 FEB
VALPARAISO 33.0S 71.6W 0739Z 27 FEB
COQUIMBO 29.9S 71.3W 0801Z 27 FEB
CORRAL 39.8S 73.5W 0810Z 27 FEB
CALDERA 27.1S 70.8W 0821Z 27 FEB
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0844Z 27 FEB
IQUIQUE 20.2S 70.1W 0911Z 27 FEB
ARICA 18.5S 70.3W 0929Z 27 FEB
GOLFO DE PENAS 47.1S 74.9W 0934Z 27 FEB
PUERTO MONTT 41.5S 73.0W 1052Z 27 FEB
EASTER IS. 27.1S 109.4W 1205Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ARENAS 53.2S 70.9W 1213Z 27 FEB
PUERTO WILLIAMS 54.8S 68.2W 1404Z 27 FEB
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 72.0W 0936Z 27 FEB
SAN JUAN 15.3S 75.2W 0952Z 27 FEB
LA PUNTA 12.1S 77.2W 1045Z 27 FEB
PIMENTAL 6.9S 80.0W 1114Z 27 FEB
TALARA 4.6S 81.5W 1127Z 27 FEB
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 78.8W 1132Z 27 FEB
ECUADOR LA LIBERTAD 2.2S 81.2W 1202Z 27 FEB
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 79.8W 1234Z 27 FEB
BALTRA IS. 0.5S 90.3W 1313Z 27 FEB
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 78.9W 1253Z 27 FEB
BAHIA SOLANO 6.3N 77.4W 1327Z 27 FEB
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 77.2W 1340Z 27 FEB
ANTARCTICA THURSTON IS. 72.0S 100.0W 1312Z 27 FEB
CAPE ADARE 71.0S 170.0E 1650Z 27 FEB
PANAMA PUERTO PINA 7.4N 78.1W 1331Z 27 FEB
PUNTA MALA 7.5N 79.9W 1334Z 27 FEB
PUNTA BURICA 8.0N 82.8W 1340Z 27 FEB
BALBOA HTS. 9.0N 79.6W 1457Z 27 FEB
COSTA RICA CABO MATAPALO 8.4N 83.3W 1344Z 27 FEB
PUERTO QUEPOS 9.4N 84.2W 1417Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN ELENA 10.9N 86.0W 1452Z 27 FEB
NICARAGUA SAN JUAN DL SUR 11.2N 85.9W 1452Z 27 FEB
PUERTO SANDINO 12.2N 86.8W 1512Z 27 FEB
CORINTO 12.5N 87.2W 1520Z 27 FEB
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN IS. 25.1S 130.1W 1455Z 27 FEB
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 87.6W 1520Z 27 FEB
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 89.8W 1531Z 27 FEB
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 91.2W 1539Z 27 FEB
FR. POLYNESIA RIKITEA 23.1S 135.0W 1542Z 27 FEB
HIVA OA 10.0S 139.0W 1723Z 27 FEB
PAPEETE 17.5S 149.6W 1748Z 27 FEB
MEXICO PUERTO MADERO 14.8N 92.5W 1552Z 27 FEB
ACAPULCO 16.9N 99.9W 1615Z 27 FEB
MANZANILLO 19.1N 104.3W 1709Z 27 FEB
SOCORRO 18.8N 111.0W 1719Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN LUCAS 22.8N 110.0W 1749Z 27 FEB
MAZATLAN 23.2N 106.4W 1753Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ABREOJOS 26.7N 113.6W 1856Z 27 FEB
ENSENADA 31.8N 116.8W 2016Z 27 FEB
COOK ISLANDS RAROTONGA 21.2S 159.8W 1814Z 27 FEB
PENRYN IS. 8.9S 157.8W 1925Z 27 FEB
PUKAPUKA IS. 10.8S 165.9W 1950Z 27 FEB
KIRIBATI FLINT IS. 11.4S 151.8W 1836Z 27 FEB
MALDEN IS. 3.9S 154.9W 1934Z 27 FEB
CHRISTMAS IS. 2.0N 157.5W 2028Z 27 FEB
KANTON IS. 2.8S 171.7W 2112Z 27 FEB
TARAWA IS. 1.5N 173.0E 2258Z 27 FEB
KERMADEC IS RAOUL IS. 29.2S 177.9W 1912Z 27 FEB
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1918Z 27 FEB
NEW ZEALAND EAST CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 1918Z 27 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 1922Z 27 FEB
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 1952Z 27 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 1954Z 27 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 1955Z 27 FEB
MILFORD SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 2005Z 27 FEB
NORTH CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 2010Z 27 FEB
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 2030Z 27 FEB
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2040Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 2056Z 27 FEB
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2127Z 27 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 2129Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 2140Z 27 FEB
NEW PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 2219Z 27 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1940Z 27 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1951Z 27 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 2006Z 27 FEB
JARVIS IS. JARVIS IS. 0.4S 160.1W 2026Z 27 FEB
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 2028Z 27 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU IS. 9.2S 171.8W 2030Z 27 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 2104Z 27 FEB
AUSTRALIA HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 2105Z 27 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 2146Z 27 FEB
BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 2310Z 27 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0101Z 28 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0159Z 28 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0251Z 28 FEB
HAWAII HILO 19.7N 155.1W 2119Z 27 FEB
HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 2152Z 27 FEB
NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 2158Z 27 FEB
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA IS. 6.3N 162.4W 2124Z 27 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI IS. 7.9S 178.5E 2125Z 27 FEB
VANUATU ANATOM IS. 20.2S 169.9E 2137Z 27 FEB
ESPERITU SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 2235Z 27 FEB
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND IS. 0.6N 176.6W 2154Z 27 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 2218Z 27 FEB
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON IS. 16.7N 169.5W 2245Z 27 FEB
SOLOMON IS. KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 2321Z 27 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0004Z 28 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0004Z 28 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0017Z 28 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0020Z 28 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 2331Z 27 FEB
MARSHALL IS. MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 2339Z 27 FEB
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0013Z 28 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY IS. 28.2N 177.4W 0022Z 28 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE IS. 5.5N 163.0E 0026Z 28 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0036Z 28 FEB
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0038Z 28 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
PORT MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0123Z 28 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0128Z 28 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0135Z 28 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0154Z 28 FEB
MANUS IS. 2.0S 147.5E 0214Z 28 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0237Z 28 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0258Z 28 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI IS. 7.0N 158.2E 0111Z 28 FEB
WAKE IS. WAKE IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0112Z 28 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK IS. 7.4N 151.8E 0213Z 28 FEB
RUSSIA MEDNNY IS 54.7N 167.4E 0236Z 28 FEB
UST KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0302Z 28 FEB
PETROPAVLOVSK K 53.2N 159.6E 0333Z 28 FEB
URUP IS 46.1N 150.5E 0354Z 28 FEB
SEVERO KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0410Z 28 FEB
MARCUS IS. MARCUS IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0248Z 28 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0302Z 28 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0345Z 28 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0405Z 28 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0433Z 28 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0452Z 28 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0505Z 28 FEB
GEME 4.6N 126.8E 0512Z 28 FEB
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0303Z 28 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0311Z 28 FEB
YAP YAP IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0352Z 28 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0413Z 28 FEB
JAPAN KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0435Z 28 FEB
KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0453Z 28 FEB
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0509Z 28 FEB
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0557Z 28 FEB
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0610Z 28 FEB
PHILIPPINES DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 0527Z 28 FEB
PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0559Z 28 FEB
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 0604Z 28 FEB
CHINESE TAIPEI HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0626Z 28 FEB
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0626Z 28 FEB
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 0654Z 28 FEB
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0655Z 28 FEB

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

WEPA41 PAAQ 271403
TSUWCA

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 8
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
552 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON – WASHINGTON – BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER TO KODIAK ALASKA…

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM KODIAK ALASKA TO ATTU ALASKA…

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD IMPACT THE ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PERSONS IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

THIS MESSAGE IS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE DATA… OBSERVED TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES… HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND FORECAST MODELS.

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES

LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
———————— —– —— ——- ———–
74MIN TALCAHUANO C 36.7S 73.1W 0657UTC 1.84M/6.1FT
40MIN SAN FELIX CH 26.3S 80.1W 0832UTC 0.81M/2.7FT
57MIN CALDERA CHIL 27.1S 70.8W 0746UTC 0.52M/1.7FT
47MIN COQUIMBO CHI 29.9S 71.3W 0902UTC 1.27M/4.2FT
78MIN IQUIQUE CHIL 20.2S 70.2W 0851UTC 0.30M/1.0FT
57MIN ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0956UTC 0.46M/1.5FT
84MIN ANCUD CHILE 41.9S 74.3W 0943UTC 0.34M/1.1FT
30MIN CORRAL CHILE 39.9S 73.4W 1012UTC 1.54M/5.1FT
56MIN CALLAO LA PUN 12.1S 77.2W 1029UTC 0.66M/2.2FT
52MIN BALTRA ECUAD 0.4S 90.3W 1251UTC 0.35M/1.2FT

TIME – TIME OF MEASUREMENT
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE – 8.8
TIME – 2134 AKST FEB 26 2010
2234 PST FEB 26 2010
0634 UTC FEB 27 2010
LOCATION – 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
- NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
DEPTH – 19 MILES/31 KM

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII WILL ISSUE MESSAGES FOR HAWAII AND OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC OUTSIDE THE STATES AND PROVINCES PREVIOUSLY LISTED.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE WATER IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS… BOATS… AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 60 MINUTES OR SOONER IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

PZZ650-655-673-750-775-565-670-530-535-545-560-455-540-450-
CAZ039>043-087-034-035-530-006-506-508-509-529-002-505-001-
271522-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER
552 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

$$

PZZ356-255-310-350-210-250-110-130>135-150-153-156-170-PKZ310-
031>036-041-042-011>013-021-022-043-051-052-053-120-121-125>129-
130-140-141-ORZ022-002-021-001-WAZ001-021-503-506>511-514>517-
AKZ023-024-026>029-018>022-025-017-131-135-121-125-145-271522-
/O.EXA.PAAQ.TS.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER TO KODIAK ALASKA
552 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

…A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON – WASHINGTON – BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER TO KODIAK ALASKA…

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

Z = UTC

Related Links:

• Chile 8.8 Megaquake Strikes Offshore Maule

Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 4 (14 Feb)

RENE Headed Toward Tonga

At its current intensity and forecast track, Cyclone RENE could cause major damage to Tonga Isls.

Cyclone RENE could strike Hunga Island, the smaller islands to its SSW, and cause major damage to Tongatapu and Eua Islands.

An archipelago in the S. Pacific Ocean, Tonga is located south of Western Samoa. Its 176 islands (only 36 of them inhabited) are divided into three main groups: Vava’u, Ha’apai, and Tongatapu). The largest island, Tongatapu, covers about 258 sq. km (~ 100  sq. mi) and is home to the capital city of Nukuʻalofa.

The island of Niue must already be experiencing some of the peripheral forces of RENE, as it passes by.

Tropical Cyclone RENE – IR-WV Difference Satellite Image – Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Map of Tonga Island Groups. Source: USGovt. Click image to enlarge.

Background:

• RENE Heading West
• RENE Hovering Near PAGO-PAGO
• Slow Forward Motion May Help RENE to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Details

• Date/Time: 14 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.5ºS, 171.0ºW
• Sustained Movement: 215  degrees
  
• Forward speed: 22 km/hr (~ 12 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: ~ 175km (~ 95 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 230 km/hr (~ 125 kt)
• RENE is now a Cat 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale and could further strengthen to  Cat 3B on the scale in the next 24 hours.

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 9m (27 ft)
  
• Location: TC RENE was located about 240 km (~ 130 NM) SSW of Pago-Pago
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Additional Satellite Imagery

NOAA East Pacific Floater 1 GOES Satellite Imagery – Cyclone FIFTEEN (TC 15P)

• Visible  Image - Java - Flash
• IR AVN  Image - Java - Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image - Java - Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image - Java - Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image - Java - Flash
• IR JSL  Image - Java - Flash
• IR RGB  Image - Java - Flash
• IR Funktop  Image - Java - Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image - Java - Flash
• Water Vapor  Image - Java - Flash

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone RENE Update 3 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 2 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 1 (12 Feb)
• Introducing Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Cyclone RENE)
• FEWW Satellite Imagery Links Page

Cyclone PAT Revving Up in S Pacific

Tropical Cyclone PAT (14P) Intensifies

Tropical Cyclone PAT (14P) – satellite image. Source: CIMSS – Date/time – Feb 9, 2010 at 06:00UTC. Click image to enter CIMSS portal.

TC PAT Details

• Time/Date: 9 February 2010 –  09:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 15.1ºS, 159.0ºW
• Sustained Movement: 145  degrees
• Forward speed: 13 km/hr (~ 7 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone PAT has been tracking  southeastward over the past 6 hours.
• PAT is a compact cyclone with a diameter of about 445 km (240 NM)
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 120 km (~ 65 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 150 km/hr (~ 80 kt)
• Cyclone PAT is currently a Category 1 Hurricane
  

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 5m (15 ft)
• Location: PAT was located about about 1,260 km (~ 680 NM) east of Pago-Pago
  
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Hurricane OLI Update 3 – February 5

TC Oli Hits French Polynesia

Tropical Cyclone OLI (P12) Strengthens to a Cat 4B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Background:

• Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots
• Hurricane OLI Update 1 – February 4
• Hurricane OLI Update 2 – February 4

Oli Strikes

OLI struck French Polynesia a few hours ago.  On the main island of Tahiti, hundreds of people abandoned their homes to escape the full wrath of the strengthening cyclone.  Roads harbors and airports were closed throughout the popular holiday island resorts, according to various reports.

Hurricane OLI Details

• Time/Date: 5 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 20.4ºS, 151.4ºW
• Sustained Movement: 155  degrees
• Forward speed: 22 km/hr (~ 12 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone OLI has been tracking South-Southeast over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 227 Km (122.4 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 280km/hr (~ 150 kt)

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: 8.5 m (26 ft)
• Location: OLI was located about about 350 km (~ 190 NM) SW of Tahiti
  
• Sources: CIMSS and Others

Cat 4B Hurricane OLI – Visible IR image. Date as inset. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enter CIMSS Tropical Cyclone portal.

Related Links:

• Hurricane OLI Update 2 – February 4
• Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots
• Hurricane OLI Update 1 – February 4
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Hurricane OLI Update 2 – February 4

OLI a Cat 4A Hurricane, Still Intensifying

Cyclone OLI Could Strengthen to a Monster Category 5 Hurricane in 24 Hours

Hurricane OLI. Credit: CIMSS. Click image to enter UW-CIMSS weather portal.

Background:

• Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots
• Hurricane OLI Update 1 – February 4

Hurricane OLI Details

• Time/Date: 4 February 2010 –  15:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 19.0ºS, 152.1ºW
• Sustained Movement: 150  degrees
• Forward speed: 17 km/hr (~ 9 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone OLI has been tracking South-Southeast over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 217 Km (117 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 260km/hr (140 kt)

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: 8m (24 ft)
• Location: OLI was located about about 250 km (135 NM) SSW of Bora Bora
  
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Tropical Cyclone OLI is currently a dangerous Cat 4A hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and expected to further intensify in the warm Pacific waters (SST ~ 26ºdegrees C) during the next  12 to 24 hours, possibly to a Category 5 monster storm.

Related Links:

• Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots
• Hurricane OLI Update 1 – February 4
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Hurricane OLI Update 1 – February 4

Hurricane OLI Continues to Power Up!

OLI is still organizing and expected to further intensify

Background:  Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots

TC OLI Details

• Time/Date: 4 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.6ºS, 153.9ºW
• Sustained Movement: 95  degrees
• Forward speed: 22 km/hr (~ 12 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone OLI has been tracking EAST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 160 km/hr (~ 85 kt)
• Maximum significant wave height: 6.7 m (20 ft)
• OLI was located about 370 km (200nm) WNW of Bora Bora [Feb 03, 15:00UTC]
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Tropical Cyclone OLI is currently a Cat 1 hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and expected to further intensify.

FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS BELIEVE HURRICANE OLI COULD CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO THE SOCIETY ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY TAHITI, IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, AS IT’S EXPECTED TO DO, AND REMAINS APPROXIMATELY ON ITS CURRENT PATH (ACTUAL PATH NOT THE PREDICTED ONE).

Hurricane OLI. IR WV Difference. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enter CIMSS interactive maps.

Hurricane OLI. Visible IR. Source: CIMSS

• 2-Day Movie:   JAVA
• Animation IR-NHC 2km Res: GIF format

Hurricane OLI’s Projected Path. Source: UW-CIMSS.

TC OLI. Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Infrared (MIMIC-IR) Version 1.

Tropical Cyclone OLI. Infrared  – South East Pacific – GOES-West. Source: UW-CIMSS.

Map of Tahiti and Bora x 2 . Credit: karta Societeisl FP, Holger Behr.

Related Links:

• Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots

Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots

Tropical Cyclone OLI (12P) May be Heading Towards Bora Bora and other Tourist Spots in S Pacific

TC OLI Details

• Time/Date: 3 February 2010 –  03:00UTC
• Position: 15.7ºS, 157.3ºW
• Sustained Movement: 120 degrees
• Forward speed: 15 km/hr (~ 8 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone OLI has been tracking ESE over the past 6 hours.
  

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 100 km/hr (~ 55 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
• Maximum significant wave height: 6 m (18 ft)
• OLI is about 650 km (350nm) west of Bora Bora.
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Tropical Cyclone OLI is expected to intensify under favorable environmental conditions.

TC OLI – IR NHC Enhancement – Date and Time as Inset. Credit: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Cyclone OLI. Infrared Color Background  – South East Pacific – GOES-West. Credit: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge and update.

• 2-Day Movie:   JAVA

OLI’s Projected Path. CIMSS Estimation. Click image to enlarge and update.

TC OLI. Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Infrared (MIMIC-IR)
Version 1.

Tropical Cyclone OLI. Infrared  – South East Pacific – GOES-West. Credit UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Cyclone OLI Position Map. Original map by Google. Information added by Fire-Earth.

El Niño Update [23 Nov 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  23 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.

Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific

• The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
• The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
• Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
• The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day

Click image to enlarge.

Intraseasonal Variability

• Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
• Related to this activity
  • significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  16 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.

• The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

• Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.

• Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.

• Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [10 Nov 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  9 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
  

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

• Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

• During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
• The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.

Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s^-1)

• Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
• Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
• Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [5 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  5 Oct 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Highlights

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page]

• El Niño Update [28 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [21 Sept 2009]

• El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) -  Recent Evolution

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, the change in equatorial SST

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

1. During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.

2. The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.

In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.

Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.

3. Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 September 2009
El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

For additional information see following links.

Relate Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season