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Technical information and scientific data from the US Government agencies (NASA, EPA…) are subject to variation due to political expediency.
This caution also extends to the UN organizations (e.g., FAO, WHO…).
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[July 4, 2011] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,717 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
Ontario, Canada. Death toll from the latest outbreak of C. difficile in the Niagara region has climbed to 15, with the latest death reported at Welland Hospital.
Demonstrators are planning to protest management of Greater Niagara General Hospital, where 4 people died from the infection, on Wednesday, The report said.
Nine others have died at the St. Catharines General hospital and at two the Welland Hospital.
At least 42 other patients remain in hospital, 26 of whom contracted the infection there.
Latest figures from the Health Protection Agency show there were 55,681 cases of Clostridium difficile infection reported in patients aged 65 years and above in England in 2006. (Source: SIMeL Italy)
“Diarrhea can range from being a nuisance to a life threatening or even fatal disease.” The Clostridium difficile bacteria are naturally present in the intestine but kept under control by other bacteria. Antibiotics can kill some of these, allowing C. difficile to take hold. Image source and other images.Click image to enlarge.
Wisconsin and Minnesota, USA. A state of emergency was declared in Burnett County after a massive storm tore across three-quarters of the county Friday with straight line winds in excess of 110MPH, reports said.
The storm reportedly killed two people and left at least 39 others injured, including three critically.
Downed powerlines, which have left thousands of northwestern Wisconsin without power, started dozens of fires across several counties.
In Minnesota, the storm affected Marshall (state of emergency declared), Redwood Falls, the Twin Cities and St. Cloud. In Wisconsin, damage was reported in Ashland, Burnett, Douglas, Marathon, Polk, Sawyer and Washburn counties.
“The heavy rain was a factor in several motor vehicle accidents, including a collision between a car and train in Douglas County,” said a report.
Bukidnon province, Philippines. Up to two dozen people have been killed or reported as missing after a large landslide triggered by weeks of torrential rain buried a part of Valencia City.
Mayon at a ‘high level of unrest’ may experience more dangerous explosions
Mt Mayon Spews Lava. Photo: Reuters. Image may be subject to copyright.
Mayon 5-level hazard alert raised to level 3 Tuesday after Mayon ejected ash and spewed lava.
According to Phivolcs, “Alert level 3 condition signifies magma is near the top of the crater and incandescent materials are now detaching. Mayon volcano is now at a ‘high level of unrest’ and may have more dangerous explosions.”
Quick fact about the latest episode of activity at Mt Mayon:
Phivolcs Level 3 alert means an eruption is expected within days to weeks [Level 4 means an eruption is imminent, while level 5 means eruption is in progress.]
Albay Governor Jose Salceda has declared “a state of imminent disaster” throughout the province, to allow the provincial government to access disaster funds needed to evacuate residents in Mayon’s danger zones.
Phivolcs scientist, Alex Baloloy, said, “a full blown eruption is expected to take place within weeks to days.”
Baloloy said lava had cascaded down about 3 km from the crater summit of the volcano.
By Monday Mayon had emitted about 800 tons of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas.
The air in the region has been described as “hot and irritable” and “smelly.”
After 23 volcanic quakes on Monday, 5 ash explosions occurred at the volcano generating a mix of brownish and grayish ash cloud.
Phivolcs said it had recorded 78 volcanic earthquakes in the last 24 hours
Philippines disaster management officials have now evacuated about 50,000 people from Tabaco City and the towns of Malipot, Daraga, Camalig, Guinobatan and Ligao near Mt Mayon, aiming for a “zero-casualty situation.”
Schoolrooms within an 8-km radius of Mt Mayon have been suspended and used as evacuation shelters. [Let's hope the schools are better built in the Philippines than they are in China.]
Mayon has experienced more than 50 eruption in 400 years.
The first recorded major eruption occurred in 1616.
The most voluminous lava flow occurred in the 1766 eruption.
Mayon’s most destructive eruption occurred on February 1, 1814. The volcano bombarded the town of Cagsa with tephra, burying all but the bell tower of the town’s church in about 9 m of ash. As many as 2,300 of Albay residents may have perished in the volcano’s deadliest eruption to date.
Mayon erupted continuously for 7 days starting June 23, 1897. The village of Bacacay was buried in 15 m of lava. About 500 villagers were killed in the aftermath.
Fire Earth Moderators believe more volcanic activities at other Philippines volcanoes are highly probable in the near future. The volcanoes located on the island on Mindanao are particularly liable to erupt in the next 12 to 36 months.
The moderators also believe a large eruption may occur at Taal volcano. For other related forecast, see links below and search blog contents.
Four people were killed and 13 others injured when tropical depression “Urduja” pummeled several provinces in Mindanao, Philippines according to disaster officials.
Three of the fatalities occurred as a result of landslides triggered by heavy rain and flooding.
“A total of 82,324 families or 404,623 persons were affected in 93 barangays, four cities and 23 municipalities in the provinces of Camiguin, Lanao del Norte and Misamis Oriental in Northern Mindanao and Agusan del Norte and Dinagat Island in Caraga Region,” the NDCC reported.
“At the height of Tropical Depression ‘Urduja,’ 3,293 persons, 110 vehicles and 99 vessels were stranded in various ports in Southern Tagalog, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao.”
Northeast Monsoons
In the first week of November, Northeast Monsoons and strong winds affected up to 120,000 people in 165 districts throughout Mindanao, northern and eastern Luzon and other regions in the Philippines.
Argentina, Uruguay:
Severe flooding caused by the “heaviest rains in 50 years” have killed at least 10 people and forced 15,000 people to evacuate in northern parts of Argentina and Uruguay. The fatalities were caused by drowning and mudslides.
The recent heavy rain in the regions follows months of drought in NE Argentina. Extensive deforestation in the country’s northern regions has impacted the regional climate resulting in extreme of droughts and deluge.
The land use change, transforming forests to agricultural land for growing soybeans, has negatively affected the soil’s water-carrying capacity, environmentalists say.
The local weather service has warned that a severe storm front could bring additional heavy rainfall, wind gusts and hail this week.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 9 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.
Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 2 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
Niño 3.4 ~ 1.5ºC
Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Summary
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
At 12:00 UTC, today, Tropical Depression “TINO” was near 17.3°N, 123.9°E, or about 200 km East of Tuguegarao City, moving West at 11 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds: 60 kp/h
Significant Wave heights: Up to 7.5 meter (23 feet)
“Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of northern and central Luzon,” Philippines DOST PAGASA said.
MTSAT – IR Still Image – Time and Date as Inset. Click image to update.
Tropical Depression TINO [local name] Moving ENE toward northern Luzon. MTSAT IR1. Still Image on 2 November 2009, timed at 12:30UTC. Dost Pagasa. Click image to enlarge and update.
Philippines Cyclones Since August 2009
30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.
Typhoon Mirinae, the fourth in a month to strike the Philippines, pummels the island of Luzon
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC
Position: 14.0N 119.5E
Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)
FEWW Comment: Mirinae could strengthen into a typhoon [Probability = 0.35] again, before making its next landfall in Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.
Typhoon Mirinae, now weakened to a tropical storm force, struck the main island of Luzon, Philippines early Saturday morning (17:00 UTC Friday), making landfall in the eastern Quezon province, he Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA )reported.
The powerful typhoon “crashed into the Philippine capital Saturday with pounding rain and strong winds, causing a massive power outage, downing trees and bringing fresh floods to areas still partially submerged from a recent deadly storm,” AP reported.
Residents living in Manila Bay look out from their house that was damaged by Typhoon Mirinae in Bacoor town, south of Manila, October 31, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.
“The Philippine network said knee-deep floodwaters were reported in the village of Salapan and brownouts were reported in parts of Luzon, including metro Manila. Power was out in Quezon province, where the typhoon made landfall, as well as parts of Bicol, Pasig City and Rizal province,” UPI reported.
Up to 150,000 residents in low-lying areas were evacuated to shelters before the typhoon arrived, the National Disasters Coordinating Council reported. Some 180 flights from Manila were canceled and many ferries were grounded, with more than 10,000 passengers stranded.
Rains caused by Mirinae have worsened the flood-stricken parts of the capital, Manila and surrounding regions caused by earlier storms, which left nearly 1,000 people dead. Up to a quarter of million people remain homeless, including more than 100,000 crammed into temporary shelters run by the disasters relief agency.
“The government disasters relief agency reported that at least 15 villages and districts in Metro Manila are submerged — some in waist-deep floodwaters,” Xinhua reported.
This natural-color image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:00 p.m. local time October 30 (05:00UTC). The eye of the storm was a large mass of roiling clouds located less than a hundred kilometers northeast of Cataduanes Island in the Philippines.NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, NASA Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC
Position: 14.0N 119.5E
Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC
Position: 14.5N 122.7E
Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)
Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.
Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.
Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image.Click image to enlarge and update.
Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo island
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Pampanga
Zambales
Occidental Mindoro
Albay
Burias Island
Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC
MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !
The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]
Position: 15.0N 125.2E
Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae was located at near 15.6N, 128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).
Maximum Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 knots)
Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).
Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.
The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?
Click image to animate.
Basic Information
DOB: 2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE: 45 hours / 1.55 days
Minimum Pressure: 955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed: 150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind: 260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind: 260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind: 410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind: 670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled: 1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783 km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index: 2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name: Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 26 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 ~ 1.1ºC
Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.
During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
MIRINAE Strengthens to a typhoon force, could develop to a SUPER TYPHOON [P ≥ 65%]
Mirinae has significantly increased in organization and intesity over the past 12 hours.
Typhoon Location as of 00:00 UTC 28-10-2009: 16.2N, 138.5E
Giant Typhoon MIRINAE (23W) could further strengthen to a Super Typhoon (probability of 65%). MTSAT IR Still Image at 00:00UTC on October 28, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.
(MTSAT/NOAA/SSD) Guam IR Color Loop. Click image to enlarge and animate.
Basic Information
DOB: 2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE: 18 (hours) / 0.75 (days)
Minimum Pressure: 965 (hPa)
Maximum Wind Speed: 130 km/h / 70 (knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind: 110 (km) /60 (nm)
Diameter of Storm Wind: 220 (km) /120 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind: 330 (km) / 180 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind: 670 (km) /360 (nm)
Distance traveled: 587 (km)
Average Speed: 32.7 (km/h) / 783 (km/d)
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.3, Longitude 5.2
Wind Flux: 1.9500E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 1.0225E+04
Power Dissipation Index: 5.7488E+05
At 03:00 UTC 27 October 2009, Tropical Storm Mirinae (23W ) was located near 14.3ºN, 144.6ºE, or approximately 75km (40 nm) northeast of Guam, moving West-northwestward (290 degrees) at about 28km (15kt) with max significant wave heights of about 4m (12 feet), JTWC reported.
Max sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 kt)
Maximum wind gusts: 85 km/h (45 kt)
All available models currently forecast 23W to make landfall on the east coast of Luzon near 15.3ºN moving over south central Luzon.
Tropical Storm 23W – MTSAT IR Still Image timed at 01:30UTC, on Oct 27, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.
Storm Twentythree Forecast Track and Wind Distribution Graphic Issued Tue Oct 27 13:28 ChST. NWS/ Tiyan Guam.
Storm Twentythree. Another twin-engined super typhoon in the making? Click image to enlarge and update.
At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds: 160km/h (85 knots) Category: 2
Max Gusts: 195 km/h (105knots)
Coordinates:20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours:280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts) Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines
Summary of Storm Activity
Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.
Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.
LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather. Click image to enlarge and update.
History Color Code - The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale) NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather
LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.
Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009
Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.
Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC
Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement: WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height: ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.
MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.
Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture
Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.
MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.
Summary of Lupit Latest Data (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)
Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
Center position: 18.7° N, E 133.8°E
Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
Central pressure: 930hPa
Maximum sustained winds: 250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
Max. wind gusts: 307km/h (165kt)
Area of 50kt or greater winds: 200km wide (110NM)
Area of 30kt or greater winds: 440km wide (240NM)
Source(s): JMA; JTWC
Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)
Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to northern Luzon, JTWC reported.
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge!
At 2:00 AM local time, Saturday October 17, typhoon LUPIT [locally known as “RAMIL”] was located about 850 km east of VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.6°N; 133.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h moving WNW at about 20/km/h, Philippines PAGASA reported.
FEWW Forecast:
Moderators believe LUPIT has the potential of becoming the most destructive typhoon yet to strike Philippines in 2009.
Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?
Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.
At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm LUPIT (22w) was located near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.
LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.
It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.
Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.
FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably
1. Reorganize, strengthening into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.
Ketsana, Parma and Melor: Harbingers of Bad Times Ahead?
Did the Three Storms Spell the Beginning of the End for the Philippines as We Know it?
On September 26, 2009 FEWW called the floods caused by storm Ketsana Philippines Worst Floods in Living Memory. Soon the fool extent of the human-enhanced disaster unfolded, as Tropical Storm Ketsana poured more than a month’s worth of rain on Manila in just a few hours.
About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. By mid day September 27, about 80 to 90 percent of the Philippines capital was still submerged under water.
Commuters wade through waist-deep floodwaters following heavy rains brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (locally known as Ondoy) Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Manila, Philippines. At least five people have been killed after nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just six hours Saturday, triggering the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in 42 years, stranding thousands on rooftops in the city and elsewhere as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.
FEWW Moderators expected Typhoon Parma to expand the destruction, and for the first time mentioned the probability ofManila collapsing.
Finally Parma Arrived!
Parma came, but for fleeting moments it looked like it could spare the Philippines main Island of Luzon. FEWW Moderators weren’t deceived, however. Driven by a more powerful storm, Typhoon Melor, which pinwheeled the by now weaker storm, ensuring that it would stay over northern Luzon for the next few days, Parma caused another round of deluge in Northern Luzon.
Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?
And suggested:
One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.
By Saturday October 10, 2009 at least 265 people were confirmed dead as landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the previous two days, the officials said.
A total of 265 people were confirmed dead in landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the past two days. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.
This death toll from the deadly storms now stands at 611 with dozens more reported missing. Two weeks after Ketsana struck, up to 350,000 people are still packed into temporary evacuation centers. More than 3 million people have been affected.
But the Philippines worst nightmare hasn’t even started.
The specter of infectious disease outbreaks looms over the Philippines. Up to 3 million people in the country are immediately threatened by the very high risk of outbreaks of water-, sanitation-, and hygiene-related disease as well as foodborne epidemics including cholera, hepatitis A and E, typhoid fever, and shigellosis (caused by Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), according to health officials.
The factors that are increasing health risks include:
Malnutrition
compromises natural immunity,
leads to more frequent occurrences of infections
Infections become more severe and prolonged
communicable diseases become more difficult to diagnose and treat
pose significant threat to public health
infants and children are particularly at risk
Disruption in power and fuel supplies with immediate impact on
drinking water
sanitation
personal hygiene
food production hygiene, refrigeration and cooking facilities
Displaced population and overcrowding
overcrowding in temporary relief centers would heighten the risk of acquiring
acute respiratory infections (ARI)
measles
meningitis.
By end of November/early December 2009, additional exposure to disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes could increase the risk of
dengue
malaria
As well as rarer diseases such as
chikungunya
hantavirus
Japanese encephalitis
Disruption of Critical Services caused by flooding would prevent access to
health and social and security
medical, obstetric and surgical emergencies
Rainfall from Typhoon Parma
Typhoon Parma spent nearly a week pouring heavy rain on the northern half of the Philippine island of Luzon. This image shows both the storm’s track and the rainfall that accumulated between October 2 and October 8, 2009. The rainfall data are from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The satellites recorded more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain in places, shown in dark blue.
The heaviest rain fell on the mountain range that runs north to south along the length of the island, the Cordillera Central. Damages came from landslides on the slopes of the mountains and from floods caused by water flowing out of the mountains west to the South China Sea. The largest area of heavy rain sits over the Lingayen Gulf, the “u”-shaped body of water on the western shore of Luzon near the bottom of the image. One province in this region, Pangasinan, was between 60 and 80 percent flooded. The highest death toll came from another province, Benguet, a little north and east of Lingayen Gulf, where landslides impacted several villages.
The storm came ashore from the east and crossed the northern tip of the island on October 3, 2009. Under the influence of nearby Typhoon Melor, Parma stalled offshore, unleashing yet more rain on Luzon while spinning in place on October 4-5. Finally, the storm reversed direction and moved back across the Philippines toward Typhoon Melor on October 7. By October 8, Melor’s influence on Parma weakened, and Parma moved west again to make its third trip across Luzon Island. Many of the areas of heavy rain coincide with areas that likely saw Parma’s most intense inner bands more than once throughout the course of the week.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW]
