Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Posts Tagged ‘SST anomalies’

La Niña Strengthening

Posted by feww on September 19, 2010

La Niña Conditions Continue to Strengthen Across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Above map shows a 10-day average of sea-surface height and was acquired by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 satellite on September 6, 2010. Higher water surface areas signifying warmer temperatures are shades of red-brown, and areas of lower water surface (cooler) are blue. White areas are normal condition.  “The El Niño weakens the westward trade winds that normally blow over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Those winds keep eastern Pacific waters cool and concentrate warm waters in the western Pacific. A weakening of trade winds enables warm waters to gradually spread eastward, heating up the central Pacific. La Niña typically follows El Niño, and causes essentially the opposite conditions. La Niña strengthens the trade winds, spreading cool water from the South American coast to the central Pacific. This see-saw pattern of El Niño and La Niña can drive large-scale weather changes, especially in the tropics.” Full caption here… Source: NASA E/O. Click image to enlarge. Download large image (1 MB, PNG).

Sea Surface Temperatures


50 KM Global Analysis – updated weekly.

Current Conditions


Source: NWS/CPC/NOAA

Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomalies During El Niño

Current SST Anomalies
Above image shows SST Anomalies during the 2009 El
Niño episode, saved on July 27, 2009 and included for comparison.

Related Links:

Posted in El Niño, El Niño conditions, El Niño episode, El Niño impact, La Niña, La Niña episode | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Update [21 April 2010]

Posted by feww on April 21, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19 April 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  0.8ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  0.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 1.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across muchof the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Previous 5 Issues:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

-

Serial No 1,601. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño today | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Update [5 April 2010]

Posted by feww on April 6, 2010

Serial No  1,541. If any posts are blocked in your country, please drop us a line.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  5 April 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  0.9ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.0ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October 2009 coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively. Since late February 2010, the heat content anomalies have decreased.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures  (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • Since mid-February 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave
  • Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave has contributed to below-average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific.


Click image to enlarge.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During February, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs overthe eastern North Pacific and near the eastern U.S. The anomalous troughs were associated with below-average temperatures over much of the central and eastern United States. At higher latitudes, strong ridging was associated with above-average temperatures across most of Canada. Since early March, the flow across the N. Pacific and Atlantic has weakened. This pattern has contributed to below-average temperatures across the southern U.S. while ridging and above-average temperatures were observed over Canada and the northeastern U.S.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
  • The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persistinto the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 4 April 2010

Summary
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño today, El Niño update | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Update [29 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  29 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.0ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures  (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave
  • Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Click images to enlarge.





Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
  • The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persists into the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 6 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño update, El Niño update MARCH 2010, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

El Niño Update [8 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 9, 2010

Fire-Earth Forecast: More extremes of weather could affect western, northwestern and northern regions of  South America throughout the spring 2010, possibly extending into the summer.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  8 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

Source: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño today, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

El Niño Update [1 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 2, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  1 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC) – Click images to enlarge

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.


Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies

Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively. Recently, heat content anomalies have increased again in association with an oceanic Kelvin wave.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days

From late December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. During mid to late January, the East Asian jet extended farther east and a strong trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging contributed to above-average temperatures over much of N. America. During February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the middle latitudes, along with ridging and above-average temperatures over higher latitudes.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
  • The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.


Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 Feb 2010).

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [22 February 2010]

Posted by feww on February 25, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  22  February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (oC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • Weeks•During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have extended from 170°E eastward to the South American coast.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the central Pacific and increased in the extreme eastern Pacific

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • The most recent period (below) indicates another downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave is increasing temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. Since mid January,the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northwestern U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the eastern and central United States.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
  • The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño update | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [15 February 2010]

Posted by feww on February 16, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  15 February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.0ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.1ºC)


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
Equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.


Click image to enlarge.


Weekly SST Departures
(ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific


Click image to enlarge.

  • In early January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the central equatorial Pacific in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • The most recent period (below) indicates a broad area of above-average subsurface temperatures across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Click image to enlarge.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days

Click image to enlarge. From mid-December to mid-January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. During late January, the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the United States.


Click image to enlarge.

Intraseasonal Variability

  • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
  • Related to this activity
    • significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).


Click image to enlarge.


Click image to enlarge.


Click image to enlarge.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the current El Niño episode is near or at its peak (e.g. December-January-February).
  • After peaking, nearly all models indicate Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease, with about half of the models indicating that El Niño will continue into April-May-June 2010.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño update | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [8 February 2010]

Posted by feww on February 10, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  8 February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Click images to enlarge


From December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since mid January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has become established over the eastern Pacific. Overmuch of N. America, strong ridging over Canada has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the contiguous U.S. This recent pattern is typical of El Niño.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

.

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño conditions, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, El Niño weekly report | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]

Posted by feww on February 3, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  1 February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.3ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 150°W.

Click on the images to enlarge

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [18 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 19, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  18 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.1ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased in parts of the eastern Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • During late November –December 2009, positive temperature anomalies expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • In late December 2009, positive anomalies increased in the central equatorial Pacific in association with another Kelvin wave.
  • The most recent period (below) indicates a broad area of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Click image to enlarge.


Intraseasonal Variability

  • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
  • Related to this activity
    • Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary:

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [11 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 12, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  11 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks


During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average in regions east of the Date Line.

Global SST Departures (°C)


During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC to 3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [4 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 5, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  4 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring [and summer] 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [28 Dec 2009]

Posted by feww on December 29, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  28 December 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.9ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.6ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across large regions in the eastern half of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have increased across the eastern equatorial Pacific.


Click image to enlarge.
Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP


Click image to enlarge.
Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During most of November, a nearly zonal pattern of above-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with anomalous troughingover the higher latitudes. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of North America and below-average temperatures in Alaska. From late November through December, the anomalous zonal pattern of above-average heights at mid-latitudes was replaced by strong anomalous troughs over the N. Pacific and much of N. America and above-average heights at high latitudes. This pattern led to below-average temperatures acrossthe U.S. and Canada and above-average temperatures over Alaska.

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • The models continue to disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño, but nearly all indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month average greater than +1.0°C) through January-February-March 2010.
  • After peaking, the majority of models indicate Niño-3.4 will gradually weaken, but that El Niño will continue into April-May-June 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC to 3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update December, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

El Niño Weekly Update [21 Dec 2009]

Posted by feww on December 22, 2009

FEWW Comments on the ongoing El Niño:

  • Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies are at their highest in the past 12 years, exceeding the anomalies recorded in the  1997-98 El Niño.
  • The precipitation remains high near the equator, and low in places like Australia.
  • The ongoing drought and deluge would cause substantial damage to crops and infrastructure.
  • Extremes of climate enhanced by El Nino in 2010 could contribute to food shortages in many parts of the world.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  21 December 2009


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.6ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ -0.2ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across portions of the eastern half of the Pacific.


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Global SST Departures (°C) During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.


Click image to enlarge.
Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, the largest positive SST anomalies have expanded eastward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have increased across much of the across the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.


Click image to enlarge.
Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP


Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days


During the first half of November, a nearly zonal pattern of above-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with anomalous troughing over the higher latitudes. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of North America and below-average temperatures in Alaska. From late November to the first half of December, the anomalous zonal pattern of above-average heights at mid-latitudes was replaced by strong anomalous troughs across the N. Pacific and much of N. America and above-average heights near Alaska. This pattern led to below-average temperatures across the U.S. and Canada and above-average temperatures over Alaska. Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • The models continue to disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño, but nearly all indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month average greater than +1.0°C) through January-February-March 2010.
  • After peaking, the majority of models indicate Niño-3.4 will gradually weaken, but that El Niño will continue into April-May-June 2010. [International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 17 Dec 2009).]

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 446 other followers