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Posts Tagged ‘Typhoon Melor’

Possible Tropical Cyclone Forming Near Luzon

Posted by feww on November 2, 2009

Tropical Depression Tino Moving Towards N. Luzon

At 12:00 UTC, today, Tropical Depression “TINO” was near 17.3°N, 123.9°E, or about 200 km East of Tuguegarao City, moving West at 11 km/h.

  • Maximum sustained winds: 60 kp/h
  • Significant Wave heights: Up to 7.5 meter (23 feet)

“Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of northern and central Luzon,” Philippines DOST PAGASA said.

MTSAT IR  full disk 2-11-09 1200 UTC
MTSAT – IR Still Image – Time and Date as Inset. Click image to update.

possible new tropical  storm
Tropical Depression TINO [local name]  Moving ENE toward northern Luzon. MTSAT IR1. Still Image on 2 November 2009, timed at 12:30UTC. Dost Pagasa. Click image to enlarge and update.

Philippines  Cyclones Since August 2009

  • 30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
  • 3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
  • 26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
  • 7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.

Related Links:

Previous entries:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

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Posted in Climate Change, dividends of climate change, human enhanced natural hazards, tropical cyclones, Western Pacific Typhoon | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Mirinae: Philippines Phlooded

Posted by feww on November 1, 2009

Tropical Storm MIRINAE – UPDATE 02 November 2009 at 15:UTC

On 02 November 2009 at 15:00 UTC Tropical Storm MIRINAE was located near 12.5N, 108.0E, or approximately 290 km northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The strom has been tracking westward (260 degrees) at a forward speed of about 22km/h during the past six hours, having made landfall shortly after 06:00 UTC. “The Low level circulation center (LLCC) is expected to dissolve over land within the next 12 hours. Remnant vorticity may track towards the Gulf of Thailand,” JTWC said, but the LLCC is not expected to redevelop.

  • Maximum Sustained Winds:  85 km/h
  • Maximum Wind Gusts:  102 km/h

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Image of the Day:

Philippines After Mirinae

Santa Cruz streets after mirinae  AP
Philippines Govt sent naval boats to Santa Cruz where roads were heavily flooded. Even after the floodwater receded after rain had eased, it was still reported as “chest-high” in some areas. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Initial Impact of Mirinae on the Philippines

  • Mirinae was the fourth storm in a month to pummel the Philippines.
  • It made landfall on the eastern coastal province of Quezon, buffeting the area with winds of 150 km/h and gusts of up to 190 km/h.
  • The typhoon struck Quezon about 24:00 UTC, Friday, moving west, south of Manila as it weakened overland into a tropical storm Saturday afternoon, and headed in the direction of Vietnam.
  • Heavy rain and strong winds caused more damage to the already storm stricken areas in the region.
  • Typhoon Mirinae took a similar path to storm Ketsana, whose heavy rains inundated Manila in September causing the worst floods in living memory.
  • The worst storm-related floods in living memory have left hundreds dead , with up to a quarter of a million homeless.
  • Up to 20 people have been killed or were reported as missing, including 7 confirmed  deaths, as of posting. A man was drowned and his small baby washed away in Pililla township in Rizal province, east of Manila, as they tried to cross an overflowing creek, reports said.
  • Six more people were killed in Laguna province, south of the capital, and up to a dozen people are reported missing.
  • In the town of Santa Cruz the roads were flooded, residents waded through a chest high mix of muddy floodwater and sewage after Mirinae dumped heavy rains in the area. govt sent in naval boats to help with rescue operation.
  • “The waters were really high. It was like a flashflood. It was waist deep in our area but in other areas it went as high as the rooftops,” a local official was quoted as saying.
  • Up to 120,000 people were evacuated in areas south of Manila. Residents in other areas were told to prepare essential supplies for 3 days, and stay put.
  • Some 180 flights were canceled, dozens of ferries grounded, many schools closed.
  • Areas south of the capital were worst hit by heavy rain and strong winds, which caused significant damage.

Philippines  Cyclones Since August 2009

  • 30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
  • 3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
  • 26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
  • 7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.

Related Links:

Posted in Climate Change, dividends of climate change, human enhanced natural hazards, Philippines, tropical cyclone, Tropical storm, Typhoon MIRINAE | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Posted by feww on October 31, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae, the fourth in a month to strike the Philippines, pummels the island of Luzon

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

  • Position: 14.0N 119.5E
  • Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking  westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)

FEWW Comment: Mirinae could strengthen into a typhoon [Probability = 0.35] again, before making its next landfall in Vietnam

aa mirinae
Tropical Cyclone Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Typhoon Mirinae, now weakened to a tropical storm force, struck the main island of Luzon, Philippines early Saturday morning (17:00 UTC Friday), making landfall in the eastern Quezon province, he Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA )reported.

The powerful typhoon “crashed into the Philippine capital Saturday with pounding rain and strong winds, causing a massive power outage, downing trees and bringing fresh floods to areas still partially submerged from a recent deadly storm,” AP reported. 


Residents living in Manila Bay look out from their house that was damaged by Typhoon Mirinae in Bacoor town, south of Manila, October 31, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The Philippine network said knee-deep floodwaters were reported in the village of Salapan and brownouts were reported in parts of Luzon, including metro Manila. Power was out in Quezon province, where the typhoon made landfall, as well as parts of Bicol, Pasig City and Rizal province,” UPI reported.

Up to 150,000 residents in low-lying areas were  evacuated to shelters before the typhoon arrived, the National Disasters Coordinating Council reported. Some 180 flights from Manila were canceled and many ferries were grounded, with more than 10,000 passengers stranded.

Rains caused by Mirinae have worsened the flood-stricken parts of the capital, Manila and surrounding regions caused by earlier storms, which left nearly 1,000 people dead. Up to a quarter of million people remain homeless, including more than 100,000 crammed into temporary  shelters run by the disasters relief agency.

“The government disasters relief agency reported that at least 15 villages and districts in Metro Manila are submerged — some in waist-deep floodwaters,” Xinhua reported.

Ty  Mirinae_AMO_2009303
This natural-color image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:00 p.m. local time October 30 (05:00UTC). The eye of the storm was a large mass of roiling clouds located less than a hundred kilometers northeast of Cataduanes Island in the Philippines. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, NASA Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

  • Position: 14.0N 119.5E
  • Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking  westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)

31-10-09
TC MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC

Best Track:

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)
Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

Previous entries:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

Related Links:

Posted in Climate Change, dividends of climate change, human enhanced natural hazards, tropical cyclone, Tropical storm | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Posted by feww on October 29, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC

  • Position: 14.5N 122.7E
  • Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking  west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)

Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.

track pagasa 2
Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.

DP 2
Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3  (100-185 kph winds)

  • Quezon
  • Polillo island
  • Bulacan
  • Bataan
  • Rizal
  • Cavite
  • Laguna
  • Batangas
  • Oriental Mindoro
  • Lubang Island
  • Marinduque
  • Camarines Norte
  • Camarines Sur
  • Catanduanes
  • Metro Manila

Signal No. 2  (60-100 kph winds)

  • Aurora
  • Quirino
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Tarlac
  • Pampanga
  • Zambales
  • Occidental Mindoro
  • Albay
  • Burias Island

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

mirinae 30-10-09
MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !

The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]

  • Position: 15.0N 125.2E
  • Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 10 m (30 feet)
  • Wind Flux: 8.1000E+02
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 5.7550E+04
  • Power Dissipation Index: 4.2202E+06

5-day track 30-10-09
Typhoon MIRINAE 5-Day Projected Track. Source: JTWC.  Click image to enlarge.

0921-00
Typhoon MIRINAE 3-Day Projected Track. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright.
Click image to enlarge.

PAGASA track

Typhoon MIRINAE [Typhoon SANTI in the Philippines] track by Dost PAGASA, Philippines. Click image to enlarge.

23w sat
Click image to animate.

Animation: Best Track

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)

More links are posted throughout this page.

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Typhoon MIRINAE – Update 29 Oct 2009

MIRINAE  “fine-tuned” by LUPIT

Typhoon Mirinae  in “direct contact” with the remnants of LUPIT

Background: MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at near 15.6N,  128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots).  It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).

  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts :   204 km/h (110 knots)

Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).

20-10-09
Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.

The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured  Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?

23w sat
Click image to animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   45 hours / 1.55  days
Minimum Pressure:   955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed:  150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783  km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name:  Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

track forecast
TY MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC

Best Track:

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)
Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

Previous entries:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

Posted in Climate Change, dividends of climate change, flooding in manila, Philippines, tropical storms, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Posted by feww on October 21, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

  • How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

  • How much more rain will it dump?

  • Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h
(85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h
(105knots)
Coordinates:
20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours:
280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

LUPIT - 21 -10 - 09
Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

track - unisys
LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code - The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)
wind force table - SSS
NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT -  JTWC 5-day track
LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

22W_200530sams Large
Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:


LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in ecological collapse, Intertropical Convergence Zone, Lupit, LUPIT Forecast, LUPIT projected path, LUPIT Projected track, Philippine Sea, Philippines, RAMIL, sociological collapse, storm 22w, storm Ketsana, storm Lupit, storm RAMIL, Subtropical Ridge, Super Typhoon Lupit, super typhoon ramil, TS Lupit, ts lupit forecast track, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Parma, typhoon ramil | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009

Posted by feww on October 17, 2009

LUPIT has intensified to typhoon strength moving toward central and northern Luzon, Philippines

Previous Entry:

Typhoon Data Summary

At 2:00 AM local time, Saturday October 17, typhoon LUPIT [locally known as “RAMIL”] was located about 850 km east of VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.6°N; 133.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h moving WNW at about 20/km/h, Philippines PAGASA reported.

FEWW Forecast:

Moderators believe LUPIT has the potential of becoming the most destructive typhoon yet to strike Philippines in 2009.

FEWW Previous Forecast


MTSAT IR Image. Updated
at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

rgb lupit 17 10 09
MTSAT – RGB Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

avn - typh LUPIT 17-10-2009-
MTSAT – AVN Enhancement – Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

LUPIT Projected path JTWC
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

Related Links:

Posted in Cyclone Lupit, Cyclone LUPIT Projected track, ecological collapse, Intertropical Convergence Zone, LUPIT Forecast, LUPIT projected path, Philippine Sea, Philippines, RAMIL, sociological collapse, storm 22w, storm Ketsana, storm Lupit, Storm Placenta, storm RAMIL, Subtropical Ridge, TS Lupit, ts lupit forecast track, Typhoon Parma, typhoon ramil | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam

Posted by feww on October 14, 2009

Parma: The Storm that Never Left

For two weeks Parma has behaved as if programmed to cause maximum rainfall in specific regions

And all other weather systems and atmospheric phenomena have worked to ensure Parma carries out its ‘intended tasks!’

As a new tropical depression the Philippines shrouds southern portion of Luzon and central islands of the Philippines,  TS Parma drifts slowly towards  the Vietnamese coast at a forward speed of about 6 km/h towards  expecting to make landfall  1at about 6:00UTC/GMT today (October 15,  2009), near coastal line provinces from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh.

After leaving Hainan Island, Parma redeveloped quite rapidly regaining intensity, and featuring a new eye with deep convection.

vis
Northwest Pacific – Visible Image. (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD) – Still frame – Click image to  update and enlarge.


Best Track Map. Source: ‘Digital Typhoon’

  • Heavy rainfall is expected in Cao Bang, Thanh Hoa and Lang Son from about 01:00UTC, October 15, 2009.
  • Tidal waves of up to 5 meters at coastal provinces from Quang Ninh to Nghe An should be expected.
  • The provinces from Thanh Hoa to Quang Binh should anticipate heavy rainfall.
  • Flash floods and landslides in the mountainous areas, and intense flooding in lower lands present real life threats to humans and animals.

The latest stats issued at 01:05 UTC, 14 October 2009 (JMA/JTC) are as follows:

  • Center position: N20°20′(20.3°), E107°20′(107.3°)
  • Direction and speed of movement: STR [Low- to mid-level Subtropical Ridge (STR) is located to the north of Parma. FEWW]
  • Central pressure:  748.87 mm Hg  (996hPa) – [Standard pressure is 761.84 mm Hg. FEWW]
  • Maximum wind speed near the center: 65km/h [18m/s, 35kt]
  • Maximum wind gust speed: 90km/h [25m/s, 50kt] – [reaching as high as 117km/h before landfall. FEWW]
  • Area of 30kt winds or more: Wide 190km (100NM)

Parma is expected to pass directly over Hanoi at about 00:30UTC on October 15, 2009, dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone shortly thereafter.

Parma may still have a few surprises tucked deep inside its gusty ‘algorithm!’

pi_ir
The Philippines Islands shrouded again. MTSAT Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

Animation

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)
Satellite Imagery (Sun Illumination)

Related Links:

Posted in Ha Tinh, Nghe An, parma forecast path, parma forecast track, Quang Ninh, Thanh Hoa, tropical cyclone Parma, TROPICAL STORM 19W, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan

Posted by feww on October 8, 2009

Typhoon Melor Causes Widespread Destruction and Disruptions in Japan

Melor was the first typhoon in two years to make landfall in Japan, striking in Aichi prefecture,  southwest of Tokyo, on the main island of Honshu, killing 2 people and injuring more than 30.

melor in Japan reuters
A man points to a wall torn down by high winds from the third floor of a house in Tsuchiura City, Ibaraki Prefecture north of Tokyo October 8, 2009. Typhoon Melor barrelled into Japan’s main island on Thursday, disrupting flights and trains, closing some factories and tearing roofs off houses, but damage was much less than had been feared. REUTERS/Kyodo. Image may be subject to copyright.

It caused widespread damage through strong winds, with gusts of up to 200km/h, and heavy rain including flooding roads, cutting off power and phone lines, destroying traffic signals, uprooting trees, and tearing roofs from building  and knocking over trucks on the flooded roads.

Numerous Flight bullet train and commuter train services were canceled, stranding tens of thousands of commuters in the morning rush hours.

Melor forced the world’s largest car-maker, Toyota, to shut its factories in central Honshu as a precautionary measure.

At least 100,000 homes were left without electricity in Gifu, Mie Kanagawa prefectures, and parts of  Tokyo Metropolitan.

The authorities issued various warnings against mudslides and risk of landslides throughout Honshu.

Recent Typhoon Damage in SE ASIA

  • Typhoon Tokage pummeled Western Japan in October 2004, killing up to 100 people.
  • Typhoon Etau, avoiding a direct hit in Japan, caused  flash floods and large landslides that killed up to 30 people in August, 2009.
  • Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan also in August, causing extensive landslides that swept entire villages, killing as many as 1,000 people.
  • Tropical Cyclone Ketsana left a trail of devastation across Southeast Asia, killing hundreds of people, mostly in the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia.
  • Typhoon Parma left a swath of destruction in its wake killing at least 16 people in the northern Philippines  and flooding dozens of villages.

BREAKING NEWS: Two new weather systems are racing west across the Pacific ocean heading towards the Philippines.

Related Links:

Posted in New Typhoons, Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ketsana, Typhoon Etau, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Tokage | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?

Posted by feww on October 5, 2009

Typhoon Melor may be heading toward Kanto region, Japan

Barring  a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, typhoon Melor will only briefly enter the Philippines territory late Monday (local time), exiting mostly uneventfully by early Tuesday.

melor ir4-l
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Unenhanced Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. The very slow moving storm Parma to the WNW of Melor loitering in NW Luzon and southern tip of Taiwan region could be dragged back to Luzon, as Melor heads NNW towards Japan. Note Melor’s well-defined eye and
its near-perfect symmetry.

Melor rgb-l2
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT RGB Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. [Remember, Earth is NOT flat. :)]

Melor ir2-l
Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Infra Red Short Wave
- Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image.

For additional images and animation, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.

Melor is not expected to impact Philippines directly, but it is controlling the movement of typhoon Parma, which is moving west very slowly as it passes over northern Luzon.

The two typhoons  are interacting, somewhat pinwheeling ["Fujiwhara Effect,"] with Melor packing more powerful winds being the driver, as Parma weakens. In fact, it is possible that Melor could drag Parma back on to Luzon, at least temporarily.

Melor spared Guam and Saipan over the weekend, with NWS in Guam reporting gusts of up to 38 mph and little rain as Melor moved north away from the island Saturday night.

The following information is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

TYPHOON 0918 (Melor) Issued at 00:45 UTC, 5 October 2009

Forecast for 05:00 UTC, 5 October 2009

  • Intensity: Very Intense
  • Center position:  N18°30′(18.5°),  E136°20′(136.3°)
  • Direction and speed of movement: WNW 25km/h(14kt)
  • Central pressure: 910hPa
  • Maximum wind speed near the center: 198 km/h
  • Maximum wind gust speed : 288 km/h
  • Area of 50kt (93km/h) winds or more  : 190km (100NM)
  • Area of 30kt (56km/h) winds or more: NE560km, SW390km(210NM)

jma melor track forecast
JMA forecast track for Typhoon Melor. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

Posted in melor impact Guam, Melor Impact Saipan, near-perfect symmetry, Parma weakens, Taiwan rainfall, well-defined eye | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Images of the Day: The Front One is Super Typhoon Parma

Philippines President has declared a nationwide “state of calamity” and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces in northern Luzon, where typhoon Parma is forecast to make a landfall  early afternoon  Saturday.

‘Typhoon Parma is forecast to strike the Philippines as a super typhoon at about 12:00 GMT on 3 October. Data supplied by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 17.2 N, 123.2 E. Parma is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 268 km/h (166 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.’ Reuters said.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. Typhoon Parma is expected to expand the destruction.

ir4-l - manila churned to vanila
MTSAT  Visible  Satellite Image of
soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image. Image: NOAA

rb-l - manila churned to vanila 2
MTSAT  Rainbow Enhancement Satellite Image of soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image.
Image: NOAA

parma -72-hour track - JMA
72-hour Forecast Track  – Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click on Image to update.

No. of typhoons in 2009 (so far) =  18
Annual Average (1951 – 2008)  = 19.1

Will Manila Collapse?

The probability of Manila collapsing will be discussed in the future posts.
Keyword: “Manila Collapsing.”

See comments section for updates.

Related Links:

Posted in parma landfall, Philippines, State of Calamity, typhoon no 17, typhoon parama forecast track | Tagged: , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

 
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