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TS Gustav Update 29-8

Posted by feww on August 29, 2008

Update 30-8: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Gustav is coming, and Big Hannah, too!

More on ‘Big Hannah’ later.

Gustav: The Early US Impact

  • Gustav could make landfall in the US anywhere from Texas to Florida by early next week.
  • New Orleans is planning a possible mandatory evacuation. [Hurricane Katrina struck the city August 28, 2005]
  • Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard.

Gustav Death Toll as of 03:00 UTC – Aug 29, 2008

  • Haiti: 51 people died from storm-related incidents since Tuesday.
  • Dominican Republic: At least eight more deaths were reported after Gustav struck.

TS Gustav is seen moving over Jamaica [near bottom right corner] in this mildly out of focus satellite image. Meanwhile Fay, “born” August 15, is till raining on the U.S., now over the Mid-Atlantic section [top center.] In the bottom left a system may be forming (low/medium probability) over the Bay of Campeche.  Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project.

TS Hannah follows Gustav.
1. A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing limited shower activity about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 2. A well-defined tropical wave is located along the west coast of Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and some gradual  development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Image and caption: NOAA/NWS

Hurricane Highlights from NHC [TS Gustav Advisory No 17]

  • Hurricane warnings remain in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. [A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.]
  • A hurricane watch remains in effect for western Cuba, for the Provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, la Habana and Ciudad de la Habana.  [A hurricane watch means that hurricane Conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.]
  • A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban province of Granma.
  • A tropical storm watch remain in effect for the Cuban province of Matanzas.
  • At 3:00 am UTC the center of TS Gustav was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 77.3 west, about 55 km west-southwest of Kingston Jamaica and about 445 km east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
  • Gustav is moving toward the west at 11 km/hr.  A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is forecast during the next 48 hours.  On this track, the center of Gustav will pass near or over western Jamaica in the next few hours, move near or over the Cayman Islands Friday, and approach western Cuba on Saturday.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 110 km/hr (70 mph) with higher Gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Gustav is expected to become a Hurricane Friday.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
  • Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning Area.
  • Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.  These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southern Cuba.  Rainfall will be diminishing over Haiti tonight, but anadditional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is still possible.  —Forecaster Beven

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