Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

As forecast by FEWW model, Gustav has now strengthened to an extremely dangerous category four hurricane

The National Hurricane Center in Miami confirmed a few minutes ago that Gustav now has maximum winds approaching 230 km/hr which makes him an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The following excerpt is from their advisory update:

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
13:20 EDT Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds near 230 km/hr (145 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  A special advisory will be issued at about 14:00 EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time. —Forecaster Knabb

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – Floater (updated image) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – (still image saved for comparison Aug 30, 2008 22:15 UTC) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Gustav’s current characteristics including his rapid ability to strengthen, his temperament and projected path, suggest that he could cause substantial damage to structures, especially to the 3,900 or so offshore oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav could bring up to 10 meter storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast. According to the Census Bureau estimate, as many as 12 million U.S. residents may experience Gustav’s impact.

The storm has already left a trail of destruction and some 90 people dead in its wake as it swept across the Caribbeans over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. The storm’s human cost in Cayman Islands and Cuba may exceed the standing death toll.

What about Hannah?

TS Hannah (C) Chasing Hurricane Gustv (L) – GOES Caribbean Imagery – (Still Image) – August 30, 2008 – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

According to NHC TS Hannah advisory No. 11, at 21:00UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 67.2 west or about 415 km east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. The center of Hanna is forecast to move near or just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands late Sunday or Monday.

Hannah has maximum sustained winds of near 85 km/hr, with higher gusts.  Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hrs. Minimum central pressure:1000mb.

Hannah seems to have the potential to “pack a big punch!”

Breaking News: Gustav Now Category Three Hurricane

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Gustav Strengthened to a Dangerous Category Three Hurricane

As of a Few minutes ago Gustav strengthened to a dangerous category three hurricane, National Hurricane Center reported.

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
06:00 EDT (02:00 UTC) Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav continues to rapidly strengthen and now has maximum winds near 185 km/hr (115 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale, the second major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.  Forecaster Blake/Avila

Hurricane Gustav – Category 3 – GOES (still satellite image printed for comparison) Rainbow Color Enhancement IR CH 4. Credit: NOAA – NHC

GEOS Floater (updated) Rainbow Color Enhancement IR CH 4. Credit: NOAA – NHC

Based on the FEWW model, Moderators believe there’s a very strong probability that Gustav, as he gets closer to the Isle of Youth, could strengthen to a category four hurricane within the next 12 hours before making landfall in the west-southwestern Cuba. There’s a medium to strong probability that Gustav could remain a category four hurricane as it leaves Cuba and strengthen to a giant category five hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, after it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Watch this space!

For additional images see:

• Hurricane Gustav [VII]
• Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters
• TS Gustav Latest Update
• TSs Hannah and Gustav
• Hurricane Gustav Strengthens to Category TWO

Hurricane Gustav Strengthens to Category TWO

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Hurricane GUSTAV Update

02:10 EDT Saturday August 30, 2008

The national Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has just reporetd that Gustav is continuing to strengthen and now has maximum winds of about 155 km/hr (100 mph) with higher gusts, which makes  Gustav a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

GOES – Still Satellite Image – Funktop enhancement- Infrared CH 4 Aug 30, 08 06:15 UTC

Hurricane Gustav – Category Two – GOES – Floater (Updated) – Funktop enhancement- Infrared CH 4 – Credit: NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery.

Heavy Rains Flood Central Japan

Heavy rains wreak havoc in central Japan

About 1.5 million people from 500,000 households in Aichi prefecture, central Japan, were ordered to evacuate as heavy rains flooded central Japan Friday, Kyodo News agency reported.

The evacuation orders were later lifted as rain abated; however, the officials warned about more rains in the area.

Cars travel down a flooded street between fields in Okazaki, 230 km (143 miles) west of Tokyo, August 29, 2008. (Credit: Reuters). Image may be subject to copyright.

“While the evacuation order was lifted, we urged residents to be cautious as we expect heavy rains tonight,” said a police official in the city of Okazaki, about 230 kilometers southwest of Tokyo.

“While the evacuation order was lifted, we urged residents to be cautious as we expect heavy rains tonight,” said Naoyuki Kato, a police official in the hardest-hit city of Okazaki, 140 miles (230 kilometers) southwest of Tokyo.

Okazaki, the worst affected city in the area, experienced a recors  downpour of about 15 centimeters per hour, Japan’s Meteorological Agency said.

A 76 year-old woman was drowned in her home, a man was in serious condition, and three others were missing in Okazaki.

Homes are seen flooded after heavy rain in Okazaki, 230 km west of Tokyo August 29, 2008. REUTERS/Kyodo. Image may be subject to copyright.

Other highlights from Asahi Shimbun report:

• The Tokai and Kanto regions were worst affected by the downpours from Thursday through Friday.

• Heavy rain caused floods and landslides across wide areas. A mudslide in Hachioji, western Tokyo, derailed a Keio Takao Line train late Thursday.

• In the 24 hours to 8:50 a.m. Friday, the rainfall had reached 302.5 millimeters.

• As of 6 p.m. Friday, a total of 829 houses in 12 prefectures, including 687 in Aichi, were flooded above floor level.

• In addition, 2,493 houses in 17 prefectures were flooded below floor level.

• In the Kanto region, heavy rain damaged points at Takao Station late Thursday, cancelling 195 train runs and affecting 130,000 people.

• On Thursday night, a Keio Takao Line train was derailed by a mudslide on the tracks.

• Thunderstorms caused power outages to 20,000 households in Tokyo as well as in Kanagawa, Tochigi and Ibaraki prefectures on Friday morning.

• Water levels were critical at six rivers in the Tokai and Kanto regions.

• Sporadic torrential rain could fall again because continued atmospheric instability was expected.

Japanese firefighters search for a missing 80-year-old woman at the Iga river near her damaged house in Okazaki, Aichi prefecture, on August 29.  (AFP/Jiji Press). Image may be subject to copyright.

Related links:

• Workers washed away by sewage inside Tokyo manhole