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Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Posted by feww on September 7, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike: A Deadly Hurricane by any Other Name

2008 Year of the Rain, too?

GOES – Floater Image – UneEnhanced Infrared CH4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

FEWW Comment:  Ike has re-restrengthened to a  Category 4A on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat. 4 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale)  with extremely dangerous wind speeds of about 215km/hr. It’s outer bands have enveloped the Dominican Republic and the northeastern peripheries of Haiti, moving slowly to cover north [and rest] of the island, where 500 people have already died and up to a million others displaced from previous storms. More rain, flooding, deaths and devastation are to be expected.

Subject to current weather condition and sea temperatures in the Caribbeans and on its forecast path, hurricane Ike may strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane as it approaches/makes landfall in Cuba, striking ferociously at the heart of the tropical island, which is already reeling from the shock of the previous three storms (Fay, Gustav and Hannah) in as many weeks. It’s hoped that the resilient Cuban people would literally “weather the storm.”

Storm Centered Infrared Image. Click here for  JAVA Movie (color enhancement). credit CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin- Madison

GOES – Tropical Floater Imagery – Infrared CH 4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

GOES EAST – North Atlantic Imagery – JSL2 enhancement – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

Eye of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ike Passing Over the Turks Islands

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Avila
  • Date and Time:Sept 7, 2008 at 03:00UTC
  • Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is an extremely dangerous category four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale [Cat 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale]. Some strengthening is
    Possible before Ike moves over eastern Cuba.
  • Location: The large eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
  • Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 24 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue Sunday with a gradual turn to the west late Sunday. On this track, the core of the hurricane Will begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.  Ike should then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night/early Monday.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 947mb (27.96 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels and large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in the warning areas.
  • Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hrs.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
  • Rainfall: About 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm (20 inches) possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA/NHC/NWS

Related “Year of the Expected Unknowns” Links:


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