Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike Loves Open Waters!

Ike has strengthened to a Category 2A on FEWW Hurricane Scale, and is expected to become a major hurricane (category 3A or above with winds of at least 178km/hr) before making landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Southern Texas).

FEWW Comment: Ike left behind up to 200 people dead in Haiti and Cuba (the death toll could still rise) as it churned through the Caribbeans and is now bringing much wind and rain to the US.

Having previously strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, Ike struck eastern Cuba as a category 3 hurricane, and there’s a significant probability that it might strengthen again to a category 3 hurricane, possibly stronger, as it moves over the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. The hurricane previously strengthened steadily, but rapidly, as it moved west on the open waters of the Atlantic ocean. Ike loves open waters and with its nascent ability to strengthen rapidly he could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season to date; however, it’s still too early to forecast with high certainty the hurricane’s wind forces at landfall.

Ike on his way out of Cuba. GOES East Unenhanced Image Frozen for the purpose of comparison. Date and Time: Sept 11, 2008 at 00:15UTC – Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

GOES East Floater (Updated Image) Unenhanced – IR CH 4 – Date and Time: Updated  (see foot of image). Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Knabb/Berg
• Date and Time: Sept 10, 2008 at 00:00UTC

• Hurricane Watch Area: From Cameron westward to port Mansfield, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday.

• Tropical Storm Warning Area: From the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to east of Cameron Louisiana.  AND from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

• Location: At 00:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 24.7 north, longitude 86.3 west or about 1,125 km east of Brownsville Texas and about 555 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 160 km/hr, with higher
  Gusts, Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Ike is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/hr.  A turn back toward the west-northwestward is expected tonight or early on Thursday and a general west-northwestward motion over the central and western Gulf of Mexico is expected on Thursday and Friday.
• Breadth: Ike is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 185 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 335 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947 mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding along the coasts of Cuba and in the Florida Keys should continue to subside tonight.  coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous waves, can be expected within the tropical storm warning area.  Above normal tides of 2 to 4 feet are expected elsewhere along much of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but will be increasing along the western gulf coast as Ike approaches.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 centimeters (cm) over western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to
  50cm possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5cm are possible over extreme southern Louisiana and over the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Ike’s Forecast Path

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS