US Drought Forecast

US Seasonal Drought Outlook

Latest Seasonal Assessment [quoted from Climate Prediction Center, NWS/NOAA.] Heavy rain and snow from mid-February to early March raised river levels, boosted snow pack, and increased reservoir storage in drought-affected areas of California, but major reservoirs remained below normal. The seasonal drought outlook indicates continued improving conditions for northern and central parts of the state, but with the pace of improvement slowing due to forecasts of less rain and snow in coming weeks. Statewide reservoir storage increased from 58 percent of normal on February 17 to 71 percent of normal on March 3. Despite the improvement in water supplies, it is unlikely that shortages will be erased before the dry season sets in. With less precipitation in the forecast, little change in the drought situation is expected for those areas of southern California where drought exists, as well as in northwestern Nevada. Some improvement is forecast for other areas in the Great Basin. Elsewhere, drought has further worsened in the southern Plains, and short and long-range forecasts of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures mean that drought could expand in Kansas, eastern Colorado, western Texas, and southern New Mexico. In contrast, heavy showers forecast during the first 2 weeks of the forecast period in March are likely to bring at least short-term relief to eastern drought areas of Texas and the northern Gulf Coast, with even some improvement possible in the hard-hit areas of south-central Texas. The drought has aggravated wildfire danger and damaged winter crops across the southwestern Plains. In early March, 63 percent of the Texas winter wheat crop rated poor to very poor. To the east, heavy rain and snow over the South at the end of February benefited remaining drought areas. More relief is anticipated from central Georgia northward, while drought should persist over southern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. Development is forecast in northern Florida while lingering drought in parts of Hawaii should ease.  Forecaster: D. Le Comte

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