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Archive for May 18th, 2009

Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

Posted by feww on May 18, 2009

A powerful earthquake could strike near south coast of Honshu in late June – September 2009

FEWW Forecast: A magnitude 7.8+ quake could strike the Tokyo Bay area in the next 30-90 days.

Details of Forecast

Magnitude: 7.8 or larger
Estimated Date:  June 14, 2009 [Uncertainty T+ 60 days]
Epicenter: 35.56°N,  139.98ºE
Location: Tokyo Bay, Tokyo, Japan
Depth: 8km [Uncertainty: +/- 2.4km]

  • 8 km south of Tokyo Disneyland
  • 12 km SE of Imperial Palace
  • 14 km WSW of Chiba City
  • 19 km NE of Yokohama

Horizontal Uncertainty: +/- 3.8 km
Probability of Occurrence: 0.8

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

Tokyo Bay Quake Forecast
Map sourced from USGS [National Geographic Magazine – 2002 ] Image may be subject to copyright.

TOKYO and its outlying cities are home to almost one-quarter of Japan’s 127 million people. Tokyo dominates Japan’s politics, arts, finance, trade, and communications, and accounts for a third of its wealth. Eighty years ago, the region suffered one of the world’s most destructive earthquakes, killing 143,000 people, destroying two-thirds of Tokyo, and all of Yokohama. The earthquake left $68 billion in property damage, ten times that wrought by the 1995 M=6.9 Kobe earthquake. Today, the population of greater Tokyo is six times larger than it was in 1923. To accommodate this growth, about 385 square kilometers of land rimming Tokyo Bay, or about a quarter of the bay, has been reclaimed for urban and industrial use. A repeat of the 1923 M=7.9 Kanto earthquake is estimated to cause 30-60,000 deaths 80-100,000 hospitalized injuries, and total economic losses of $2.1-3.3 trillion, comprised equally of property and business-interruption losses. Insured losses were estimated to be $31-36 billion.

But how likely is a repeat of the Kanto earthquake, or are other types and locations of destructive earthquakes more probable today?  [Source USGS]

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Posted in earhquake hazard, Japan quake, japan seismicity, Kanto earthquake, quake disaster | Tagged: , , , , | 74 Comments »

Moderate Quake Strikes LA

Posted by feww on May 18, 2009

Magnitude 5.0 earthquake strikes Greater Los Angeles Area, Calif.

The main shock was followed by a swarm of aftershocks including a magnitude 3.1. More tremors should be expected in the area in the coming days.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 5.0

  • Monday, May 18, 2009 at 03:39:36 UTC
  • Sunday, May 17, 2009 at 08:39:36 PM at epicenter

Location of Epicenter

ci10410337 - 1
10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,120°W – USGS

Location:  33.940°N, 118.338°W
Depth:  13.5 km (8.4 miles)

  • 2 km (1 miles) E (91°) from Lennox, CA
  • 2 km (1 miles) SSE (159°) from Inglewood, CA
  • 3 km (2 miles) NNE (22°) from Hawthorne, CA
  • 15 km (10 miles) SSW (213°) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA

Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 0.4 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.9 km (0.6 miles)
Parameters:  Nph=139, Dmin=7 km, Rmss=0.42 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=C

Source: California Integrated Seismic Net/ USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID: ci10410337

Historical Seismicity

ci10410337 - 2

ci10410337 - 3

ci10410337 - 4
Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist. A magnitude 5.2 earthquake occurred near the Whittier Narrows, California, region 21 km northeast of the location of this earthquake on October 4, 1987 (UTC), with estimated population exposures of 477,000 at intensity VII and 2,994,000 at intensity VI, resulting in an estimated 1 fatality. On January 17, 1994 (UTC), a magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred near the Northridge, California, region 32 km northwest of the location of this earthquake, with estimated population exposures of 73,000 at intensity IX or greater and 2,181,000 at intensity VIII, resulting in an estimated 33 fatalities. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused, landslides and liquefaction that may have contributed to losses. [Source: USGS – Earthquake Hazard Program]

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Posted in Hawthorne quake, Inglewood, LA aftershocks, Lennox, socal earthquake | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »