Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

A powerful earthquake could strike near south coast of Honshu in late June – September 2009

FEWW Forecast: A magnitude 7.8+ quake could strike the Tokyo Bay area in the next 30-90 days.

Details of Forecast

Magnitude: 7.8 or larger
Estimated Date:  June 14, 2009 [Uncertainty T+ 60 days]
Epicenter: 35.56°N,  139.98ºE
Location: Tokyo Bay, Tokyo, Japan
Depth: 8km [Uncertainty: +/- 2.4km]
Distances:

• 8 km south of Tokyo Disneyland
• 12 km SE of Imperial Palace
• 14 km WSW of Chiba City
• 19 km NE of Yokohama

Horizontal Uncertainty: +/- 3.8 km
Probability of Occurrence: 0.8

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

Map sourced from USGS [National Geographic Magazine – 2002 ] Image may be subject to copyright.

TOKYO and its outlying cities are home to almost one-quarter of Japan’s 127 million people. Tokyo dominates Japan’s politics, arts, finance, trade, and communications, and accounts for a third of its wealth. Eighty years ago, the region suffered one of the world’s most destructive earthquakes, killing 143,000 people, destroying two-thirds of Tokyo, and all of Yokohama. The earthquake left $68 billion in property damage, ten times that wrought by the 1995 M=6.9 Kobe earthquake. Today, the population of greater Tokyo is six times larger than it was in 1923. To accommodate this growth, about 385 square kilometers of land rimming Tokyo Bay, or about a quarter of the bay, has been reclaimed for urban and industrial use. A repeat of the 1923 M=7.9 Kanto earthquake is estimated to cause 30-60,000 deaths 80-100,000 hospitalized injuries, and total economic losses of $2.1-3.3 trillion, comprised equally of property and business-interruption losses. Insured losses were estimated to be $31-36 billion.

But how likely is a repeat of the Kanto earthquake, or are other types and locations of destructive earthquakes more probable today?  [Source USGS]

Related Links:

• Earthquake Forecast 2009
• FEWW Earthquake Links