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FEWW Saudi Quake Swarm Forecast 100 pct Correct!

Posted by feww on May 20, 2009

FEWW forecast of an earthquake swarm rocking western Saudi Arabia was  100 pct spot on!

Since FEWW Western Arabia earthquake cluster forecast, which was posted on the blog on May 19, 2009, at 10:35am UTC, 4 new seismic events have occurred in the area, measuring between 4.6 and 5.7 Mw. See Map below.

us2009gvba  WSA - 20May 2009
Western Saudi Arabia earthquake cluster location map.
10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,40°E. Source: USGS

FEWW expects further seismic activity in the area which may include a more powerful quake measuring 6.2 Mw.

FEWW also believes there’s a 0.74 probability that Arabia’s Harrat Lunayyir volcanic field could become active by Mid July 2009 [July 17, 2009]  after about 1,000 years of dormancy.

List of 4 latest Earthquakes: (Source: USGS)

Magnitude 4.9

Date-Time Tuesday, May 19, 2009 at 16:54:31 UTC
Location 25.311°N, 37.676°E
us2009gva7

Magnitude: 5.7
Date-Time Tuesday, May 19, 2009 at 17:35:01 UTC
Location 25.353°N, 37.761°E
Event ID us2009gvba

Magnitude 4.6
Date-Time Tuesday, May 19, 2009 at 19:57:18 UTC
Location 25.202°N, 37.737°E
Event ID us2009gvbq

Magnitude 4.6
Date-Time Tuesday, May 19, 2009 at 22:02:21 UTC
Location 0.327°S, 132.577°E
Event ID us2009gvb6

Harrat Lunayyir (Volcanic Field) Western Arabia

  • Region: Western Arabia
  • Volcano Type: Volcanic field
  • Last Known Eruption: 1000 (in or before)
  • Summit Elevation: 1370 m  (4,495 feet)
  • Latitude: 25.17°N  (25°10’0″N)
  • Longitude: 37.75°E  (37°45’0″E)


Harrat Lunayyir is a basaltic volcanic field in NW Saudi Arabia, east of the Red Sea port of Umm Lajj. It contains about 50 volcanic cones that were constructed over Precambrian crystalline rocks along a N-S axis. Harrat Lunayyir is one of the smallest of the Holocene lava fields of Saudi Arabia, but individual flow lobes radiate long distances from the center of the Harrat, and flows reached the Red Sea in two places. Lava flows are basaltic to basanitic in composition, and the Holocene flows are alkali olivine basalts. One of the cones may have erupted around the 10th century AD or earlier. (Caption: GVP). Image: NASA Space Shuttle image STS26-41-61, 1988 (http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/).

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4 Responses to “FEWW Saudi Quake Swarm Forecast 100 pct Correct!”

  1. feww said

    UPDATE: Arabian Subcontinent Earthquake Forecast
    https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/arabian-subcontinent-earthquake-forecast/

  2. feww said

    May 21, 2009
    http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=412677

    Saudi Geological Survey Explains Al-Ais Tremors

    MADINAH, May 21 (Bernama)– The Saudi Geological Survey (SGS), explained Wednesday that the SGS air inspection conducted recently at “Al Harrat AS-Shaqqah” (Lava field) and the surrounding areas, revealed the existence of what it described as ground groves at the seismic activity area, Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.

    He also disclosed a remarkable increase in the number of earthquakes to 46 on Tuesday; the most powerful earthquake recorded which hit the area Tuesday night was 5.39 degrees on the Richter Scale, while the rest of the tremors ranged between 3 and 4.8 degrees.

    In a statement issued here Wednesday, SGS said the earth tremor measuring 4.81 on the Richter scale was at a depth of 7.7 km and occurred at 9.38 am (local time) Tuesday morning and was felt by residents in Al-Ais and its neighboring villages and that the tremor was felt in Omlug, Yanbu and the northern districts of Madinah.

    The SGS reassured the variables associated with this activity in terms of the rise in temperature and concentration of radon gas in some regions of volcanic area of “Al Harrat AS-Shaqqah.”

    Mayor of Al-Ais Ahmed Al-Buraiket said since the beginning of the reporting of the occurrence of earthquakes at the centre of Al-Ais and neighbouring area, it generated big interest interaction among all concerned governmental bodies at Al Madinah Governorate. — BERNAMA

    © 2009 BERNAMA. All Rights Reserved.

  3. feww said

    Thousands evacuated from Al-Ais
    Thursday 21 May 2009
    Muhammad Al-Sheikh | Arab News

    YANBU/MADINAH/AL-AIS: A total of 2,289 people, including 326 families, were evacuated from quake-hit villages in the Al-Ais area, 240 km north of Madinah, and housed in furnished apartments in Yanbu.

    The evacuations took place as 30 tremors of varying magnitudes — measuring between 3 and 5.4 on the Richter scale — were registered at Harrah Al-Shaqah in the Al-Ais area during the 24 hours ending 2 p.m. yesterday, the Saudi Geological Survey reported.

    According to a Civil Defense official in Yanbu, evacuations were still being carried out late in the night. “The evacuees are first brought to Al-Faqaeli Camp before being sent to Yanbu or Madinah, as the evacuation process is still continuing,” the official said.

    Authorities began evacuating people on Monday. Abdullah Al-Maylabi, an evacuee in Yanbu, said his family of 16 spent Tuesday night in fear and prayers after his village, Hadama, was hit by a tremor.

    Faraj Al-Hebaishi, another evacuee in Yanbu Al-Bahr, said his family underwent a nightmare when doors and windows of his home broke due to the tremor. “We would have moved out of the village even if the Civil Defense did not tell us to,” he said.

    He thanked officials for finding two apartments for his two wives and children. “The Civil Defense blew a siren warning people that they were being evacuated. We were then taken to a nearby camp. No one was allowed to stay, return or enter Al-Ais after that,” Al-Hebaishi said.

    The Civil Defense has warned people living within a radius of 40 km of Harrah Al-Shaqah, the quake’s epicenter, to keep away. The warning was issued following the discovery of dangerous gases and unusually hot air and water in wells as the frequency of tremors increased in Al-Ais. A Civil Defense source said the discoveries suggested a volcanic eruption was likely.

    “Cracks appeared on the walls of my home on Tuesday night,” said Salah Al-Rifae, a resident of Yanbu, 140 km from Al-Ais.

    Some citizens in Yanbu are also offering their buildings free of cost to evacuees. Saleh Al-Jihani, owner of Al-Haditha private school, offered to admit 150 evacuated schoolchildren at his school.

    Local authorities have announced the closure of schools for two weeks starting Saturday in Umlaj.

    Umm Faisal, an evacuee who was taken to Madinah, said, “When officials advised us to leave the area where the frequency of tremors were increasing and volcanic activities seemed likely, I did not hesitate … I was worried about the safety of my eight children.”

    She added that, although she feels relieved that she and her family are safe, she is unhappy that her children’s education had been disrupted. Umm Abdullah said that she, along with her husband and children, sought refuge in a nearby mountain when the door of their house collapsed in a tremor on Sunday.

    “We spent five hours on a mountain top until the Civil Defense brought us down,” she said.

    Mayor of Al-Ais Ahmad Al-Buraikit said no deaths or injuries were reported in the area as a result of the tremors. “The mild earthquake has not caused any loss of life or injuries in the area so far,” he said.

    Al-Buraikit said that he informed the governor’s office when the first signs of the tremors occurred in mid-April. He added that officials have been raising awareness about what to do in an emergency.

    Director General of the Madinah Red Crescent Dr. Moalla Al-Jabri confirmed that no injuries or deaths were reported. “We haven’t received any cases on account of the earthquakes,” he said.

    Tabuk Gov. Prince Fahd bin Sultan assured the people of Wajh and Umlaj in the Tabuk province that they would be safe. “There have been no human injuries or material losses in Umlaj while all government departments are geared to tackle any eventualities in the region,” Prince Fahd said in a meeting with local people.

    The King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) said villages surrounding Harrah Al-Shaqah are safe.

    Emergency Civil Defense squads in Makkah were moved near Yanbu to assist in coping with any emergency.

    In Al-Ais, the fruit market is filled with abandoned produce in barren stalls. Groups of bag-clutching expatriate workers form at garages and pick-up points, waiting for buses to carry them away to a safe place.

    However, reaction to the rumblings and the continuing seismic shocks in the area are generating excitement among the local people. Few have been in an earthquake and curiosity is mounting. Conversations now commonly start with inquiries about the earth moving underfoot.

    Public knowledge about seismic activity in general is limited but even in the humblest tea shop in Yanbu and Madinah, the phrase “Richter scale” has become common currency.

    — With input from Muhammad Abdullah, Yousuf Muhammad, Nadeen Ibrahim and Roger Harrison — Copyright: Arab News © 2003 All rights reserved.

  4. […] FEWW Saudi Quake Swarm Forecast 100 pct Correct! […]

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