CSU Lowers Hurricane Forecast

Colorado State University Lowers 2009 Hurricane Forecast for Atlantic basin to “Slightly Below Average Season”

The forecasters  now anticipates 11 named storms forming during the official Atlantic basin hurricane season between June 1 and November 30.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach. The Colorado State University Tropical Storm Duo!

CSU forecasts use available data on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions [El Nino, sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures … ] recorded prior to the past seasons and compare the results to forecast future trends.

“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 48 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach.

“Currently observed climate factors are similar to conditions that occurred during 1959, 1960, 1965, 2001 and 2002 seasons. The average of these five seasons had slightly below-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2009 season will have activity in line with the average of these five years.” CSU forecasters reported.

According to CSU forecast tropical cyclone activity in 2009 will be 90 percent of the average season. In 2008 tropical cyclone activity reached about 160 percent of the average.

CSU Hurricane Forecasters said they will issue a final seasonal update on Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Here’s summary of their revised forecast released June 2, 2009

EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2009

Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range

• Named Storms:  (9.6)* 11
• Named Storm Days: (49.1) 50
• Hurricanes:  (5.9) 5
• Hurricane Days (24.5) 20
• Intense Hurricanes: (2.3) 2
• Intense Hurricane Days:  (5.0) 4
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  (96) 85
• Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%) 90

{Note: Numbers in ( ) represent average year data based on 1950-2000 records.

On the face of it, their revised forecast appears to be  sensible; however, it excludes the possibility that the traditional hurricane season might be shifting.

Related Links:

• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record
• What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?
• 2009 Hurricane Season: Storms in Teacup, or Nasty Surprises?

CSU forecasters’ Landfall Probability tables are available at  http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane