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California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE

Posted by feww on August 4, 2009

For initial forecast see:

California Earthquake Forecast 2009

Based on the recent seismic activity in the Gulf of California, FEWW Moderators revise their forecast for California earthquakes in 2009 as follows:

(i) A magnitude 7.4 earthquake and two strong aftershocks (5.5+ Mw) could strike California in 2009 with a probability of 0.9 (88%).

(ii) The estimated date of occurrence:  September 28, 2009

(iii) The occurrence date uncertainty: ~ +90 days from the forecast date

(iv) The epicenter is located in a built-up area. [Further information may be released later.]

(v) In addition to the above event, two other powerful earthquakes could strike the western United States in 2009.  (Probability of occurrence for a  single event is 77% and for the two events, 64%).

Related Links:

5 Responses to “California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE”

  1. JA said

    [Thank you for kind words. Moderator]

  2. feww said

    California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3

  3. feww said

    California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2

  4. K said

    Do you think that the Mojave Dessert area will be the epicenter?
    Although I’m leaning more with the area from the Cajon Pass to the Coachella Valley. I have no actual scientific basis for this other than my observations of increased micro quake activity in that area.

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