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Archive for August 11th, 2009

Morakot: An Early Dividend of Climate Change

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Foreboding Future of Climate Change

Morakot dumps record 2,500mm of rain on parts of Taiwan

In Taiwan, typhoon Morakot dumped a record 2,500 mm (100 inches) of rain on Pingtung County,  officials said Tuesday, causing severe flooding in at least three coastal towns and a dozen more villages.

The storm triggered the worst flooding in Taiwan in living memory, killing at least 50 people and injuring dozens more. About 60 people were reported missing, with another 400 – 600 people unaccounted for.

In China, Morakot has affected up to 12 million people in four coastal  provinces, killing at least 10 people with dozens more injured. The storm destroyed a many as 10,000 homes, reports said.

Slow-Moving Typhoon Morakot Soakes Taiwan

morakot_trm_2009221

morakot_trm_2009221_palette

After the slow-moving typhoon Morakot made landfall in Tawian, it soaked the southern part of the island with heavy rain between August 3 and 9, 2009, generating deadly landslides. The largest slide occurred in the southern mountains of Taiwan.

This image of the rainfall accumulation along Morakot’s path through the western Pacific is based on estimates from the near-real-time, Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, which is produced by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The analysis depends on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Increasing storm intensity (beginning with Tropical Depression) is indicated by darker shades of red. Morakot intensified to Category 2 strength prior to landfall. Highest rainfall totals (greater than 900 millimeters, or about 34 inches) are dark blue, and they are concentrated over the mountains of southern Taiwan. According to BBC news, the flooding in Taiwan is the worst in 50 years. NASA image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey. [Edited by FEWW.]

Taiwan Asia Storm
In this image taken on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009, and released by the Taiwan Military News Agency on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009, a soldier sifts through debris from Typhoon Morakot in southern Taiwan’s Kaohsiung county. A mudslide touched off by the deadly typhoon buried a remote mountain village in Taiwan, leaving at least 400 people unaccounted for, while officially there are 38 dead and 62 missing. (Taiwan Military News Agency/via AP).

Taiwan Asia Storm
In this image taken on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009, and released by the Taiwan Military News Agency on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009, an aerial view of the flooded village of Shao Lin inflicted by Typhoon Morakot is seen in southern Taiwan’s Kaohsiung county. A mudslide touched off by the deadly typhoon buried a remote mountain village in Taiwan, leaving at least 400 people unaccounted for, while officially there are 38 dead and 62 missing. (Taiwan Military News Agency/via AP).

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Posted in record rainfall, shao lin, tropical storms, Typhoon Etau, typhoon season | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 2

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

A great earthquake may strike Alaska in 2009

FEWW Alaska Earthquake Forecast – Update # 2

FEWW Moderators believe a magnitude 9.2Mw earthquake could strike Alaska anytime.

Details of FEWW Alaska Earthquake Forecast were initially posted at Magnitude MW 5.7 Quake Hits Southern Alaska on January 26, 2009, and were subsequently revised in FEWW: Alaska Earthquake Warning on August 6, 2009.

FEWW has now revised the Alaska Earthquake Forecast as follows:

  • Magnitude: 9.2
  • Probability of occurrence: 0.8
  • Estimated date of occurrence: November 19, 2009
  • Date uncertainty: +/- 90 days.
  • Estimated Location: 60.414N, 149.496W
  • Location uncertainty: Radius of about 50km from the estimated epicenter
  • Estimated depth: 8km [+/-2.6km]


FEWW Alaska Earthquake Forecast. Approximate location. Source of original map: Google Earth. Map may be subject to copyright.

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Posted in Alaska Earthquake forecast, Alaska Earthquake Warning, alaska great earthquake, anchorage earthquake, Earthquake forecasts | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

California forecast earthquake may be more powerful than originally estimated

FEWW Moderators have upgraded their forecast for a California earthquake to a Magnitude 7.9 event.

For initial forecast see California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

For Update # 1 see:  California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]

San Andreas Fault


The topographic texture of western California is controlled by the San Andreas fault system, the tectonic expression of the Pacific plate sliding northwestward along the western margin of the North American plate. Hundreds of miles long and up to a mile wide, the San Andreas Fault Zone has been active since its original development in the Tertiary.  About 10 percent of the present plate motion is compressional, which means horizontal forces are shortening and wrinkling the crust along the fault zone. This movement has created the parallel coastal northwest-southeast mountain ranges such as the Coastal Ranges along California’s central coast. Comparatively quiet during the period between the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta event, the fault is again showing activity. Image and caption: nationalatlas.gov


Fault map for San Francisco Bay Area from http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/pickcity.html, annotated and colors modified by User: Leonard G. Released into the public domain (
Leonard G. ).

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Posted in aftershock forecast, California earthquake, California earthquake forecast, earthquake forecast, seismic event forecas | Tagged: , , , , , | 16 Comments »

Strong Quake Strikes Near Shizuoka, Japan

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Magnitude 6.4 Quake strikes Near Shizuoka, the South Coast of Honshu, Japan

A strong earthquake measuring 6.4Mw occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, USGS reported, striking at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday.

The mainshock was followed by a cluster of a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which has measured about 3.9 so far.

Japan’s broadcaster, NHK, reported that the quake had rattled buildings in Tokyo, and that bullet train services had been halted pending track inspection.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

us2009kdb4 shizuoka
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 6.4
  • Date-Time:
    • Monday, August 10, 2009 at 20:07:07 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 05:07:07 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 34.727°N, 138.278°E
  • Depth: 26.8 km (16.7 miles)
  • Region: NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
  • Distances
    • 30 km (20 miles) SSW of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
    • 55 km (35 miles) E of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
    • 110 km (70 miles) SSW of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
    • 170 km (105 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 9.7 km (6.0 miles); depth +/- 3.6 km (2.2 miles)
  • Parameters: NST= 74, Nph= 75, Dmin=708 km, Rmss=1.24 sec, Gp= 50°,  M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event: ID us2009kdb4

Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale

20090811050941353-110507 jma  seismic intensity
The map shows the regions where the maximum observed Seismic Intensity was 3 or greater [see date and time.]
JMA Seismic Intensity scale is divided into 10 categories: Scales  0 to 4, 5 lower, 5 upper, 6 lower, 6 upper and 7. For an explanation of the intensity see: Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale. Image Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency.

Tsunami Advisory

Japan’s Meteorological agency, which registered the quake as 6.6, issued an initial tsunami advisory based on its observation at on august 111, 2009 at 07:13 local time, and reported up to 60cm waves at Yaizu. The initial tsunami advisory was  canceled soon after. No tsunami damage was reported.

Initial Tsunami Observation

04_11_00_20090811062229 jma 1
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

Maximum Tsunami Observation –
Tsunami Information NUMBER 6

Issued at 06:22 JST 11 Aug 2009

04_11_00_20090811062229 JMA
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

A Seismically Intense Day or So!

In a 35-hr period between August 9,  2009,  at 10:55:56  and August 10,  at 20:07:08  5 strong to powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Ring of Fire and Andaman Islands.

Items listed are in order of  L to R:)   Magnitude, Date, Time, Latitude (degrees), Longitude (degrees), Depth, Locatoion

  • 7.1   2009/08/09   10:55:56    33.144   138.040   303.1     IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
  • 6.6   2009/08/10   04:06:32    -11.596   166.093   42.8      SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
  • 5.7   2009/08/10   17:46:28    -3.127     143.179    35.0      NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
  • 7.6   2009/08/10   19:55:39    14.013    92.923       33.1      ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
  • 6.4   2009/08/10   20:07:08   34.727   138.278    26.8       NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

usgs-wall st map
Source: USGS/WSJ on line. The map doesn’t include the Mag 7.1 Izu Isles quake

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Posted in Japan Tsunami Information, seismic event report, Seismic Hazard, tokyo earthquake forecast, Tsunami Observation | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

El Niño Update – 10 August 2009

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 10 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 1.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

SST departures Aug 2009

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Summary:

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page

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El Niño Updates

El Niño, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, equatorial Pacific Ocean, , , , , .

Posted in El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Powerful Quake Strikes Near Andaman Isls, India

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Magnitude 7.6 Quake Strikes Near Andaman Islands, India Region

us2009kdb2 andaman
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 7.6
  • Date-Time
    • Monday, August 10, 2009 at 19:55:39 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 01:55:39 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 14.013°N, 92.923°E
  • Depth: 33.1 km (20.6 miles)
  • Region: ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
  • Distances:
    • 260 km (160 miles) N of Port Blair, Andaman Islands, India
    • 365 km (225 miles) SSW of Pathein (Bassein), Myanmar
    • 825 km (510 miles) W of BANGKOK, Thailand
    • 2295 km (1420 miles) SE of NEW DELHI, Delhi, India
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 9.8 km (6.1 miles); depth +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles)
  • Parameters: NST= 64, Nph= 64, Dmin=833.8 km, Rmss=0.86 sec, Gp= 72°, M-type=(unknown type), Version=6
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009kdb2

Seismic Hazard Map [USGS]

seishaz
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Historic Seismicity
hisseis
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

world quakes 7 days

Source: USGS

Tsunami Evaluation:

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TSUNAMI WAS NOT
GENERATED. THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI WATCH ISSUED BY THIS CENTER
IS NOW CANCELED.

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Posted in earthquake forecast, eathquakes, seismic event report, Seismic Hazard, Tsunami Evaluation | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »