VolcanoWatch Weekly [23 September 2009]

Magnitude 6.4 EQ occurred off SW of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, at a depth of 35 km, today.

FEWW Comments: The strong earthquake may have primed for eruption either one or both of two volcanoes Bárcena, which forms the island of San Benedicto, and Socorro, located on island of the same name, about 380 km to the west of the EQ location.

VOW1: Bárcena

Bárcena volcano forms the elongated island of San Benedicto, seen here from the SW in March 1955. The tuff cone with the circular summit crater at the center and the lava delta to the right were formed during an eruption in 1952-53, the only eruption known from this volcano in historical time. Pleistocene trachytic lava domes are located at the far NE tip of the island. Dark-colored lava domes from the 1952-53 eruption can be seen in the summit crater. Photo by Adrian Richards, 1955. Caption: GVP

VOW2: Socorro

Cerro Evermann, the high point of Socorro Island, rises above a Mexican Naval camp near the southern tip of the island. Socorro lies in the Revillagigedo Islands south of Baja California. Cerro Evermann is a large tephra cone and lava dome complex that forms the 1050-m-high summit of the volcano. Rhyolitic lava domes have been constructed along flank rifts, and silicic lava flows erupted from summit and flank vents have created an extremely irregular shoreline. Only minor explosive activity has occurred in historical time. Photo by Martha Marin, 1998 (Mexican Navy). Caption: GVP

Bárcena  and Socorro are shown to the lower left of the map.

SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(16 September – 22 September 2009)

New activity/Unrest:

• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka
• Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Sakar, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific)
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

News From GVP:

• KVERT reported that although seismic activity from Kliuchevskoi did not exceed background levels during 11-18 September, weak tremor was detected. Strombolian activity that ejected tephra 70 m above the crater was seen at night on 16 and 17 September.

• KVERT reported that during 11-18 September seismic activity from Shiveluch was above background levels. On 13 September, pyroclastic flow deposits 5 km long were seen on the S part of the lava dome.  —GVP

Ongoing Activity:

• Bagana, Bougainville
• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Chaitén, Southern Chile
• Dukono, Halmahera
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Rabaul, New Britain
• Reventador, Ecuador
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)

Related Links:

• Messages From Earth’s Powerhouse
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 19 March 2009

• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• Tonga’s Metis Shoal may be erupting
• Rumble III Volcano “blew its top!”
• Volcanoes
• Earthquakes

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts
• Volcano Watch Weekly: 23 April 2009

• Weekly Volcano Watch: 16 April 2009
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 2 April 2009

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Other Related Links:

• U.S. Volcano Status Map
• Elevated Activity Page
• U.S. Volcano Webcams

Strong Quake Strikes Off the Coast Mexico

Magnitude 6.4 Earthquake Strikes Off the Coast of Jalisco,Mexico

Strong earthquake measuring 6.4 Mw struck off SW of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, at a depth of 35 km, on Thursday,  September 24, 2009, at 07:16 UTC, USGS/EHP reported.

This event will almost certainly affect the outcome of the FEWW northern California earthquake forecast.

The earthquake was preceded by a foreshock measuring 5.6Mw which occurred on Friday,  September 18,  2009, at 18:46 UTC.

FEWW Comments: This earthquake may have primed for eruption either one or both of two volcanoes Bárcena, which forms the island of San Benedicto, and Socorro, located on island of the same name, about 380 km to the west of the EQ location.

10-degree Map Centered at 20°N,105°W

EQ Location Map. Source: USGS

This Earthquake:

• Magnitude: 6.4
• Date/Time: Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 07:16:24 UTC [Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 12:16:24 AM at epicenter]
• Location: 18.992°N, 107.350°W
• Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
• Region: OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
• Distances:
  • 285 km (175 miles) SW of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
  • 315 km (195 miles) W of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico
  • 325 km (200 miles) WSW of Autlan, Jalisco, Mexico
  • 855 km (530 miles) W of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
• Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 6.5 km (4.0 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2009lyat

The associated Press quoted the USGS as follows:

The U.S. Geological survey says the temblor struck about 170 miles (275 kilometers) southwest of Puerto Vallarta at 0716 GMT (3:16 a.m. EDT) Thursday. It occurred at a depth of about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers).

Tsunami Bulletin:

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
Issued the following at 07:28UTC 24 SEP 2009

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME –  0716Z 24 SEP 2009
COORDINATES –  19.1 NORTH  107.3 WEST
DEPTH       –   10 KM
LOCATION    –  OFF COAST OF JALISCO  MEXICO
MAGNITUDE   –  6.7

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER – EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

Related Links:

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3
• FEWW Earthquake Links
• Magnitude 6.9 Quake Strikes Gulf of California

• FEWW Earthquake Forecast: Near Mexico City

‘Experts’ surprised at coastal ice thinning

British Antarctic Survey Con Artists are Surprised!

Remember FEWW Forecast?

Thought for the Day: A 2009 Forecast

The most widely used phrase by “scientists” in 2009: “We were completely surprised!”

But never mind the “science” because these con artists are expressing surprise at the extent of the Antarctica and Greenland coastal ice thinning to get more cash and condoms.

Having analyzed of millions of NASA satellite laser images, or so they claim, British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Bristol University researchers say they have discovered that the biggest loss of ice occurred when glaciers accelerated during their descent into the sea.

[Say, how long does it take to analyze each picture? Nearest minute would do!]

The British Antarctic Survey’s Rothera base (undated photo). Source: brisbanetimes.com.au. Image may be subject to copyright.

“We were surprised to see such a strong pattern of thinning glaciers across such large areas of coastline — it’s widespread and in some cases thinning extends hundreds of kilometers inland,” said the BAS lead con artist.

“We think that warm ocean currents reaching the coast and melting the glacier front is the most likely cause of faster glacier flow.”

“This kind of ice loss is so poorly understood that it remains the most unpredictable part of future sea level rise,” he rambled on.

The study reported 81 of 111 “fast-moving glaciers” in Greenland as thinning twice faster than the “slow-flowing ice sheets at the same altitude.

Meanwhile, another ‘scientist’ in the group was quoted as saying that [the study may not be worth the cost of flying a box of condoms to Antarctica because] “thinning of the ice in some areas could be caused by changes in snowfall, for instance, not the slide of ice toward the ocean.”

[This is the best of the British science, making two diametrically opposite propositions, and both in the same breath, or research paper, just to save face in case they were proven totally wrong.]

To save their well-paid jobs, they were quoted as saying that it was still too early to determine if the thinning had any effect on the sea level rises. [More money, time and free condoms are needed.]

Only if their study wasn’t so preposterous. Any more condoms anyone?

Related Links:

• Thought for the Day: A 2009 Forecast
• “We were completely surprised!”
• Antarctica base gets 16,500 condoms before darkness [Researching each other blind!]
• Hot? Try a dream job in a not-so-tropical location

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3

For background and latest update see:

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 4  [April 12, 2010]

Up to three earthquakes measuring magnitude 6.2 or greater could strike Western US in 2009

California Earthquake Forecast: UPDATE #3

Magnitude 7.6  to  7.9 earthquake could strike the SF Bay Area, northern California in 2009

FEWW Moderators Forecast a magnitude 7.6 to 7.9  earthquake and two possible aftershocks measuring about 5.5 Mw (subject to the magnitude of the mainshock) for the San Francisco Bay Area, northern California in 2009.

Details of EQ Forecast

• Magnitude: 7.6 to 7.9 Mw

• Provisional date:  September 28, 2009
• Date uncertainty: ~ 90 Days
• Epicenter: 37° 52′ 20″N, 122° 15′ 10″W
• Depth: 9.0 km
• Depth uncertainty: ±2.8 km
• Location: ~2.88 km (1.79miles ) east of Berkeley Fire Departments: Fire Prevention & Disaster Preparedness (CA 94702).
• Location uncertainty:
  • Up to 5 km to the west of Hayward Fault
  • Up to 14 km NNW within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault
  • Up to 22 km SSE within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault

• Probability of of occurrence 0.8 [77%]

Map of N California Fault Lines. Source: USGS

Satellite map of forecast epicenter. Source: Google Maps [See terms of use for copyright information.]

FEWW Bay Area Earthquake Forecast Uncertainty Zone. Source: Google Earth [See terms of use for copyright information.]

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

Related Links:

• FEWW Earthquake Links
• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]