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Archive for October 1st, 2009

“Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila : Update #1

On Thursday, October 1, 2009 at about 08:00 UTC, Parma became a  super typhoon. It’s expected to gain more strength before landfall.

Will it or won’t it?

It’s academic whether Parma will directly strike Manila. More rain for a city already buried in chest-high floodwater is just as deadly.

Could Manila Collapse?

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

See also: The First Wave of Collapsing Cities

Super Typhoon Parma (see inset for date and time) – MTSAT/NPMOC/JTWC – Click on image to enlarge and view latest update.

Typhoon Parma – October 1, 2009

As the death toll from Tropical Storm Ketsana continued to climb, residents of the Philippines braced for Typhoon Parma, which continued its westward path across the Pacific Ocean on October 1, 2009. The same day, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image. Coastlines of the Philippines appear in black, and storm clouds hide the satellite’s view of most of the land areas. Clouds actually fill most of this image, with the eye of the storm appearing in the right half of the picture and long arms extending westward over land.  NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. [Original caption edited by FEWW]

Typhoon Parma – September 30, 2009

Tropical Storm [Now Super Typhoon] Parma headed westward over the Pacific Ocean, en route to the northern Philippines on September 30, 2009. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image the same day. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team. Caption by Michon Scott. [Edited by FEWW]

Latest Details (as of posting)

  • Position:  near 12.7N 129.1 E.
  • Location: Approximately 520 NM East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines  AST-
  • Moving WNW at a forward speed of about 16 knots
  • Intensity: Super Typhoon; expected to further intensify before landfall probably on NE coast of Luzon

Super typhoon Parma is already affecting the country

flooding in suburban Cainta east of Manila -AP
A Main Street in suburban Cainta, east of Manila, flooded chest-deep.  Sunday, September 27, 2009.  Mike Alquinto / AP Photo. Image may be subject to copyright.

What will the people do?

  • Forced evacuations in northern provinces may occur, ahead of the Parma’s landfall.
  • Parma would bring more torrential rains causing a second wave of chaos  across  Manila and nearby provinces by impeding what little relief efforts some 2.5 million people are receiving after their lives were turned upside-down by TS Katsana.
  • More people are bound to perish from the impact of Parma.
  • So far 277 people have been confirmed killed in the wake of Ketsana, with 42 still missing. The numbers would rise further.
  • Up to 700,000 people who lost their homes to landslides and mud avalanches in Manila and nearby provinces are currently staying in makeshift evacuation centers. The psychological and physical impacts of living in cramped condition for prolonged periods of time would be devastating, especially among children.

Satellite animation of Typhoons Parma and Melor in the Pacific Ocean

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Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Images of the Day: The Front One is Super Typhoon Parma

Philippines President has declared a nationwide “state of calamity” and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces in northern Luzon, where typhoon Parma is forecast to make a landfall  early afternoon  Saturday.

‘Typhoon Parma is forecast to strike the Philippines as a super typhoon at about 12:00 GMT on 3 October. Data supplied by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 17.2 N, 123.2 E. Parma is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 268 km/h (166 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.’ Reuters said.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. Typhoon Parma is expected to expand the destruction.

ir4-l - manila churned to vanila
MTSAT  Visible  Satellite Image of
soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image. Image: NOAA

rb-l - manila churned to vanila 2
MTSAT  Rainbow Enhancement Satellite Image of soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image.
Image: NOAA

parma -72-hour track - JMA
72-hour Forecast Track  – Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click on Image to update.

No. of typhoons in 2009 (so far) =  18
Annual Average (1951 – 2008)  = 19.1

Will Manila Collapse?

The probability of Manila collapsing will be discussed in the future posts.
Keyword: “Manila Collapsing.”

See comments section for updates.

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Posted in parma landfall, Philippines, State of Calamity, typhoon no 17, typhoon parama forecast track | Tagged: , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

Another Strong Quake Hits Sumatra

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Magnitude 6.8 quake strikes southern Sumatra, Indonesia

A v.  strong earthquake measuring 6.8Mw struck the southern Sumatra region about 226 km SE of Padang at a depth of 10 km on Thursday, October 1, 2009 at 01:52: 29UTC, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center reported.

The mainshock was followed by an aftershock measuring 5.2 Mw about 28 minutes later.

Earthquake Details:

Magnitude: 6.8 Mw

Date time: 2009-10-01 at 01:52:28.9 UTC
Location: 2.52 S ; 101.66 E
Depth: 10 km

  • 157 km NW Bengkulu (pop 309,712 ; local time 08:52 2009-10-01)
  • 59 km SE Sungaipenuh (pop 95,913 )
  • 226 km SE of Padang  (pop ~ 1  million)
  • 490 km (310 miles) SSW of SINGAPORE
  • 698 km (434 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Southern Sumatra has region has experienced an average of about 5 earthquakes measuring 7 Mw or greater per year since 1900.

s sumatra 2
Earthquake Location Map. Original map: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

South Sumatra seismic hazard neic_mfaf_w
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green. Source: USGS/EHP

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Posted in Bengkulu quake, indonesi earthquakes, seismic event report, sumatra quake daeth toll, Sungaipenuh quake | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Disaster Update: Indonesia Quake

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Indonesia Quake, Typhoon Ketsana and Samoa Tsunami

The death toll from the powerful earthquake in southern Sumatra, Indonesia has reached about 200, but is likely to rise sharply.

sumatra quake
Students walk out from a collapsed building after an earthquake hit Padang, on Indonesia’s Sumatra island September 30, 2009. REUTERS/Muhammad Fitrah/Singgalang Newspaper

Let’s be clear about this. The quake that hit Padang, Sumatra, was much stronger than reported. It was at least a magnitude 7.8, about 3 times stronger than reported.

Some high-rise buildings in Singapore, about 450 km northeast of the epicenter felt the tremors, which also shook some office buildings in  Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Indonesia’s Vice President Jusuf Kalla confirmed late last night that in Jakarta, that the death toll would rise because there was substantial damage in the area with many buildings  collapsed.

Based on the information received and experience from the previous events, FEWW Moderators believe that the death toll might be as high as 2 – 3,000, with many more number of injuries.

“The big buildings are down. The concrete buildings are all down, the hospitals, the main markets, down and burned. A lot of people died in there. A lot of places are burning,” Australian businesswoman  in Padang told Australian radio.

“Most of the damage is in the town center in the big buildings. The little houses, the people’s houses, there are a few damaged, but nothing dramatic. It’s not all a rubble heap in terms of smaller buildings.”

“The quake was followed by a very heavy rain. Many houses and some building are flattened in my area. But I cannot yet verify too much. We will try to compile the data and distribute aid once the rain subsides,” the district mayor of Pariaman District, one of the worst hit areas told reporters.

“A number of hotels in Padang have been destroyed,” Rahmat Triyono, an  employee of the Indonesian geophysics and meteorology agency, told AFP.

“Up to now we haven’t been able to reach Padang, communications have been cut,” he added.

An eye-witness reportedly told Reuters that there was “extreme panic” in the city, with bridges collapsing,  and water from broken pipes causing flooding.

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Posted in extreme panic, Indonesia quake, pandang quake, Pariaman District, sumatra earthquake | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »