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LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Posted by feww on October 16, 2009

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

ts lupit -
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

LUPIT Pagasa
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPIT forecast cyclone position
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

lupit analysis

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

Other Satellite Images:


Related Links:

2 Responses to “LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?”

  1. feww said

    >>>>> UPDATE
    Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
    https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/10/19/typhoon-lupit-the-sauntering-storm/

  2. feww said

    Looming storm prompts Philippines evacuation call

    By TERESA CEROJANO (AP) – 2 hours ago

    MANILA, Philippines — Officials told residents still reeling from mudslides that recently buried hundreds in the northern Philippine mountains to be ready to abandon their homes again if a storm approaching Friday becomes the third typhoon in a month to hit the country.

    The warning came after back-to-back storms since Sept. 26 caused the worst flooding in 40 years in and around the capital Manila and unleashed landslides in the Cordillera mountains in the north of the country, killing 773 people and affecting more than 7 million.

    Tropical Storm Lupit may intensify into a super typhoon by the time it makes landfall next week with winds up to 143 miles (230 kilometers) per hour, forecasters said. It was expected to enter Philippine waters late Friday.

    “We are still retrieving our dead and here comes (Lupit),” Gov. Nestor Fongwan of Benguet province said in a radio interview. “I hope it does not hit us.”

    At least 288 people were killed in last week’s landslides in Benguet province.

    The new storm may spare the saturated northern Philippines and veer toward Taiwan early next week, or may track the same devastating path as Typhoon Parma, which made landfall Oct. 3 then lingered for a week while battering the main northern island of Luzon, said chief weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz.

    Disaster-relief officials in the Cordillera region advised thousands of residents to be prepared to move to safer ground to avoid the threat of mudslides that last week buried dozens of mountainside houses with entire families, blocked roads and isolated towns for days.

    “We are informing them that there’s an incoming typhoon and that we must be aware of the necessity for pre-emptive evacuation once we know that we will be hit,” said Olive Luces, head of the Office of Civil Defense in Baguio city, 130 miles (210 kilometers) north of Manila.

    With the jagged terrain in the region of more than 1.2 million people, Luces said that large swathes of land may be considered danger zones. Residents living in low-lying areas, near cliffs and mountain slopes will be priority targets for evacuation, she said.

    The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, operated by the U.S. Navy in Hawaii, projected the storm may make landfall Wednesday in northeastern Isabela or Cagayan provinces and exit the Philippines through northwestern Illocos provinces the same day.

    Health officials warned there has been an upsurge in leptospirosis, a disease spread through exposure to water contaminated with the urine of infected animals, in parts of the country still submerged in floodwater.

    Health Secretary Francisco Duque said 1,027 leptospirosis cases and 89 deaths were recorded in Manila alone from Oct. 1-15.

    More cases were expected because up to 1.7 million people were still exposed to floods, he said. Last year, about 800 cases were treated nationwide and about 60 people died.

    Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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